The Syndicate

We're updated in the hall of fame short of the spreadsheet.

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] I haven’t forgotten our bet. I’m just having a hell of a time finding a good opportunity. It shall come.

I think it would be difficult to articulate exactly what made Dragomir so obvious. It was immediate though, like on page 1, and that confidence never wavered for the most part.

At least in my case, there was a benefit stemming from the scrimmage game. The way he handled me from the get go was blaringly authentic given the dynamic between us in that scrimmage.

Looks like we’re about to mislynch Jack.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:23 pm I'm kinda scared to play as scum on this forum after this game. Seeing how y'all so easily town read me, if I make the slightest meta change, y'all would catch me.

That’s been something I’ve had to work through for a very long time.

A suggestion if you want it: don’t change what you do as a civilian to make your life easier as a mafioso. Instead, work to elevate your playing energy as a mafioso to a comparable level. There may be bumps along the way, but the effort will make you all the better as an overall Mafia player.

You did a great job in this game. Getting out of mislynch range, making reads with confidence, and adjusting those reads as the game moves around you — that’s just about all you can do.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:46 pm Also I am maintaining my zero percent winrate on the syndicate -- sorry to all of my teammates I guess.

That's not far from being totally random. novaselinenever lost his first 8 games here. Wins and losses often don't say much about anyone's individual performances.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:46 pm Have they this year? If so, that's cool.

And yeah, mechanics won't prevent a d1 mafia lynch.

I'd say the space from about Q3 2018 through Q3 2019 has been largely defined by Day 1 mafia lynches, with numerous of those games still ending in mafia wins.

I should know.

Also I think mafia getting lynched on Day 1 is very rarely a matter of mechanics or setup. It's a matter of civilians putting in a strong enough effort that it's possible for non-civilians to stand out. Play hard and it can happen in any game.

The poll is tied, maybe it's not over.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:40 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:01 am I also could have specified that roleclaiming, action claiming, and 'I'm not telling you but this is mechanical' claiming wasn't allowed. Once again, I did not.

I'm not upset with Drago, and especially not with Epi. Again, I think town played extremely well, and this set of circumstances in no way invalidates the game. Drago used his night actions really well, though partly by chance.

It's weird that I can barely remember games without D1 mafia lynches anymore. We need to start favoring mafia more in the setups. :P

I agree

The mafia teams still win more often than civilians win.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:21 pm Visualizing the tallies for those analyses:



There's subjectivity in these classifications. Some may disagree. I can explain rationale later if needed.

It's not really just raw counts that concern me here, though it's a nice simplified guide. Further interpretation to follow.

Note to self: This method seems to have gone 1 for 2 on the mafia and clearly isolated 2 civilians (which could be random given that the numbers are the same for many). Consider trying again, but adapt your definitions for "static" and "moving" a bit to be more rigid. Greater semantic specificity may create more distinctions, but it must be relevant to alignment inferences.

Good game folks. I see no dishonor, Epignosis. I've conceded once myself; sometimes just feels like the courteous thing instead of dragging matters (when they don't seem draggable, true or not). And don't sweat the claim goof, [mention]Dragomir[/mention], it was an honest mistake.

Thanks for hosting speedchuck and congrats to you and Luna on your genetic propagation.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:52 pm You're wrong. I already solved the game. You're welcome.

Show me. Don't tell me. Show me.

Also, the last time to my memory I posted an ISO review shredding the posts of a vastly civilian-read player was dunya in Steely Dan. People literally told me they weren't reading that, and go figure I was right. So please don't ignore my post just because it's big. Even if you think I'm wrong, and I could be, I need folks to talk about it. That's how we sort the game. Not by sitting in our own little isolated corners solving by ourselves.

Cooperate.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 3:51 pm JJJ, you are a civilian because you are like me when you are bad. You value efficiency. I don't believe you punched Tony's Greyhound ticket Day 1 like that if you are aligned with him.

Even considering that near the end I had my vote on the only other guy in position to be lynched (Rej)?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:10 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:09 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:08 pm I also do not sense the "I better get my shit in" Jay that is ever present on night 1 after a Mafia death.

So you're either Mafia or you are using this game to experiment with your meta.

You have got to be shitting me.

"Mac is a dumb idiot" is exactly how Mafia deal with my cases 99% of the time. Especially good ones. Civilian Jay doesn't go the discrediting route ever. Civilian Jay doesn't provoke me into an in thread shit fight because it is anti-town.

This is pure bullshit. Civilian Jay has provoked Mac into in-thread shit fights eight thousand times, to include the very first game we played together in the Stone Age. To suggest otherwise is at best intellectually dishonest. I get into in-thread shit fights in every damned game I play, and it's one reason I wanted to take a break from Mafia in general for a few months -- it's exhausting (especially when I feel so misunderstood every time).

Likewise, to imply "you have got to be shitting me" is equivalent to "Jay going the discrediting route" is a bunch of junk. Whatever people may think of my Night 1 activity, I felt as though I had done everything in my power to solve the game. When it was suggested I was going through the motions or whatever, I was absolutely incredulous about that.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:26 pm Neither Epi or Dragomir are bad.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:26 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:08 pm I don't suspect Dragomir. You all are fooling yourselves. What does bad Dragomir have to gain from this? Come on.

Indeed. Thank you for pointing this out.

I am skeptical of many of Mac's recent reads, and these two posts examine two of them. I have my doubts that Mac was serious in his motions against Dragomir yesterday. That's not egregious, because there is value in challenging a town read. However, his response to Epignosis reads faker to me every time I look at it.

"Thank you for pointing this out" like it's not already obvious. "Epignosis is not bad, because he told me Dragomir is good" -- Dragomir has spent the entire game as the overall top civilian read, so why is that a reason to clear Epignosis? I struggle to believe that.

Recall this thing:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:19 pm I'll add that I would find anyone suspicious for doing what you are doing with the hot takes and an intentional widening of the POE (which is something I am always cautious of when wolves are few).

If Mac is a mafioso then he just broadcast his own strategy by accusing me of doing it. He has been "widening the POE" for days. Let's review some of the suspicions he has explored with at least moderate interest in recent memory:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:48 pm In the context of a bus, it makes sense that there was an attempt to introduce a counterwagon before the bussing decision was made. It also would have not occurred until the counterwagon was truly busted. The only counterwagon that was intentionally and ruthlessly thrown out on day 1 that I can recall (because it was me who did it), was the Jack/Nutella push on Jay. So looking into who framed up the counterwagons that manifested after TSP's initial suspicion is probably where to look. That would be Jack/Nut's insistence towards lynching Jay and perhaps Jay's attempt to lynch Rej.

So I would say Jack/Nutella are very much worth looking into. That Epi has narrowed it down to me/Nutella, leans me towards thinking that it was Nutella sheeping Jack who is the guilty one, rather than Jack actually coming up with El Capitano del Civiliana as a legitimate day 1 mislynch candidate out of nowhere.

nutella and Jack both emerged from Day 1 with general civilian credit in their favor, whether well-advised or not. Mac pushed back against both. Widening the POE.

He carried that "Jack bussed Tony" torch for a bit until I basically said "that's a dumb case" before he ever even presented it in my Tony/Jack interactions:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:31 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:23 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:22 pm You civ read Jack for the distancey wafflebus eh?

I'd love to see your case. Go crazy.

It's the things where you said you'd find it hilarious to make a case out of if you were Mafia.

Later in the same night he moved his bussing tinfoil to nutella instead, keeping me sandwiched between his choice suspects:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:52 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:50 pm If it wasn't a busser:

Epignosis > Creature > sprityo > Long Con

If it was a busser:

Rej > MacDougall > Jack > nutella > Dragomir

That I can place you in both categories is an interesting observation.

If not one = Long Con > Sprityo > Jay > Creature > Epignosis

If is one = Nutella > Jay > Jack > rej > Dragomir

Seems the only thing we agree on is that Dragomir = town.

Again: widening the POE. This isn't merely a matter of "if there's a busser it's X and if not it's Y", because Mac has given serious credence to his reads against both nutella and Jack. He is still pushing the read against nutella. I don't actually know why. I asked and this was all I got:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:20 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:04 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:27 pm I think Nutella is maybe the answer?

Reasons, please.

Lack of reasons to town read.

These reads don't look genuine to me.

~~~

The most important component of any case is to state a mafia motive, and that's often not done (including not by myself). If Mac is a mafioso, then by spending much of his recent time attacking nutella, half-attacking Jack, being completely gormless in his handling of me (suspecto numero uno), and giving random-ass civilian credit to the likes of Epignosis and Creature (who have combined to contribute very little to the hunt), he arranges a path to victory which is manageable. It has to be that way.

Recall that Mac didn't exactly "bus" Tony. He had his vote there, but he was right there with me in late Day 1 in considering reasons not to lynch Tony. He also handled Jack in a way that looks TMI right now. Observe:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:00 pm I think TSP is a wolf and Jack is bussing him.

I think Mac knows TSP is a wolf and is distancing from him by way of accusing Jack of bussing. The accusation was based on a bunch of bullshit in the first place, and clearly Mac realized that. He never pursued the case after I shot it the fuck down in my interactive ISO.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:01 pm I am going back to TSP for now. If he flips wolf I am gonna fuck you up Jack.

k

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:02 pm Jack's post history actually has quite a lot of TMI in it now that I look, and the engagement with TSP looks like distancing now in the context of the dramatic way he ended up voting for him. Nuff said. Game solved. Fucking get in the bin.

TMI player accuses other player (Jack) of TMI.

Widening POE player accuses other player (Jay) of widening the POE.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:44 pm nutella is sort of absent but I think that's more likely to be civ nutella tbh. It's too sloppy to be her wolf form.

I hate this "too sloppy" horseshit. When I suggested the case against me would essentially render me a sloppy-ass mafioso, Mac didn't give a shit. He gave a shit in this brief, fleeting moment for nutella. He gave a shit when he told me mafia Epignosis would mean he was sloppy. Again, it looks fake.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:50 pm Nah I changed my mind. TSP's explanations are too sincere. It doesn't vibe.

I also don't like how Jack did all that stuff he just did, at all.

Protect TSP, shit on Jack (Jack can't win regardless of Mac's read on Tony).

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:51 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:49 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:22 pm @JaggedJimmyJay how do you feel about the fact that TSP just voted for you?

Bad. Worse that he promptly moved it. Answering nutella's JJJ/Tony theory in that manner looks like a challenge, and it looks like one intended to make her or others believe the theory to be true. The movement of the vote accentuates that. See gang! I voted JJJ and then backed off! Isn't that juicy??? After you lynch me you can take him out next like you already want to do so bad!

You may not have noticed but he voted for Epignosis without announcing it, then moved it to Rej.

It feels like Mafia but it's too obvious I think.

"Too obvious to be mafia"

"Too sloppy to be mafia"

Fuck all that. This time it's a waffleburger on the confirmed mafioso.

~~~

Some of these posts may be out of chronological order. I have to get this in here quickly in case night ends and I drop dead. I grabbed the posts as I found them.

I demand feedback, whether in agreement or not. I am not convinced of this case. I have serious grievances though and they are now aired.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 3:55 am I'll do a vote color chart later see how it's looking

also @JaggedJimmyJay my buttons arent working? like for changing color or text size etc. whats up with that? at the least i have some of the basic ones memorized

I removed you from the Heist host group; it may have been interfering for some reason. Let me know if problems persist.

I’m also not giving Creature any civilian credit for being aloof or derpy, especially when he makes it seem so deliberate. This is a time to hold people to standards.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:30 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:26 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:26 am Ugh I still have a feeling it's Jay though. I don't think it's ever Mac or creature and prooobably not sprit; Drago and jack I could argue for but don't feel it. My preferences are epi and jay.

Why not Mac?

I just know I became certain at some point that he's town, idk I have a headache and feel disconnected from the game rn so maybe I'll have more coherent thoughts tomorrow. I could be convinced to reconsider him if there's a decent argument.

I will dig tomorrow. My own suspicion lingers in the gut, so I cannot thoroughly substantiate it yet. Most basically his play seems the most applicable to setting up lynches (that he fully trusts Epi and wants to lynch you and Jack is at best confusing to me for example). Tinfoil is fine, but I need to believe that reads are *real*.

Whatever I’ll see tomorrow. Too late tonight.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:26 am Ugh I still have a feeling it's Jay though. I don't think it's ever Mac or creature and prooobably not sprit; Drago and jack I could argue for but don't feel it. My preferences are epi and jay.

Why not Mac?

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:22 am Oh come on guys I was TRYING to fucking tell you that my vote didn't count and somehow nobody understood even though I thought I was being clear as day. Rej was always going to be the lynch, it was never actually tied and I tried to help you guys realize it and that I was fine with it anyway but whatever. And I'm not the scum you dipshits. I have some doubts about epi but I think he's still my first choice.

At least he didn’t lynch himself then.

Before I can get into proper digging, my top two are Epi and Mac.

I’ve had a busy day. I hope I can be around for more of the phase tomorrow.

[mention]Epignosis[/mention], why am I a civilian?

Okee dokee. Bye Rej.

I interpret that as a role civilians didn't necessarily need dead to win despite being a slight threat, so lukewarm hooray lukewarm balls.

That should essentially confirm that only one mafioso remains. I still think Epignosis is the most likely. If time permits this night phase I'll see if I can double-check all the stuff and the business for other contingencies etc.

I hate Creature showing up at the minute of the deadline and saying "fuck I'm late". Please.

Rej wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:18 pm And yes I will always be protown. My playstyle was always protown in this game.

You lynched yourself.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:47 pm OKAY

sorry, I got fucked over somehow and couldn’t reply or PM anyone

I’m any case I switch my vote to rej because it was like 2 minutes left and it was either break the tie or not

Didn't even see you'd done that until now. k.

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:21 pm Please don't throw this game.

I haven't rolled scum so I can't autowin this.

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:17 pm Ugh, forgot to move off Epignosis

atleast it didn't affect the EOD outcome

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:38 pm Oh fuck I'm late

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:38 pm Oh fuck I'm late

They're both in my POE. I find them both actively suspicious.

Sure.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:27 pm Imagine if both leading wagons were townies. I'd be mad.

What is your read on Epignosis?

I'm going to interpret that as "Rej is a suspect". If that's incorrect lemme know.

[mention]nutella[/mention], could you please indicate however you can whether you think Rej is a civilian or a mafioso? Something with a clear good-or-bad delineation?

We should be so fortunate as to have nobody shot when the game ends.

I'd rather lynch the guy voting on the counterwagon than the guy voting on himself. I'm making self-voting illegal in all of my future games (no slight on speedchuck, it's a personal frustration).

Well at least there's beautiful symmetry in the tally.

It'll be about 3:30am in Macville, so he's probably out.

Asking questions in this game has been like pulling teeth.

The deadline is in 90 minutes and we have a considerable vote spread. I hope some people will be around.

I'm voting Rej if that self-vote doesn't move. I'm not playing with these gambits.

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:30 am I'm only feeling Jack scum rn

What about Jack gets you scurred?

We have a few reads playing an important role in the current situation that I don’t understand, and it’s important that we talk about them while there’s still time. I hope the time isn’t a huge issue.

[mention]MacDougall[/mention], I already asked why Rej is a civilian, but I also want to know about Epignosis. Likewise, nutella is outside my POE and won’t be my vote without an argument of some kind. I provided the reasons I saw to read her as a civilian. If I’m wrong I need help getting there.

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention], why are you moderately certain sprityo is a civilian?

If these are gut reads, please don’t just say that. We’re late enough in the game that we can substantiate things. Point to one or more posts.

Rej wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:32 am How long does DP last? There is scum on my wagon.

We have less than three hours.

Rej wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:32 am Or scum let it be an autorunner.

Why did you vote for yourself?

Dragomir wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:06 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:47 am [VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

Why change?

I don’t want a wagon running away before an unusual deadline. There’s still more to talk about, and I don’t know who will be here.

Rej wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:58 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:59 pm @Rej what is your perspective of Dragomir as of this very moment?

I took my vote off Epignosis, so Drago can form the wagon on me with more ease and I become an easier lynch.
Dragomir is not trustworthy, can be Indie, can be everything.

I return then to my previous question. You answered it last time with a completely separate theory.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:47 am @Rej, what makes Dragomir your choice vote among all of the "towncore" players who could be associated with the LC kill given your theory?

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]
[mention]MacDougall[/mention]

Each of you have called Rej a civilian recently or not recently. If you still feel that way, please explain it to me, ideally with something reasonably substantive if you can. Time is of the essence.

We have a weird deadline. Who is absolutely certain they won't be here for it? I should be here for the couple hours prior or so.