Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[Dyslexicon]

@Marmot Why did you vote Jimmay when you clearly didn't want to?

Fleabag

What does that mean?

No, I'm really asking.

There was a point in Fleabag where Jay took multiple votes at the end of a day phase in the form of a flashwagon. I took the opportunity to support it to make it look like it had some serious momentum, both to gauge Jay's reaction, and to gauge the thread's reaction to seeing him as a wagon.

Jay's reaction at the time I found townie. I already thought he was town (which I was right), so perhaps I had conf-biased myself, but I thought it was a potentially useful exercise nonetheless. I don't remember much else from that event.

Seeing momentum here, I thought it could be useful to try said tactic again. Jay does look like he's had momentum building on him since mid Day 2 or so. I however think he's still performed just fine under that pressure.


Also, as I've said before, I think Jay is turning into the fallguy for the heat being put on the towncore, and I believe that makes it more likely a miss.

Wat.

That was a complete meme wagon, and Jimmay was never going over in that game.

Whereas here, the suspicion on him is very real.

Do you expect him to perform bad under pressure as mafia more?

Why do you have that feeling, that he's the fallguy? Ender and me have pressured him, Alison to a lesser degree.

[Marmot]

@Marmot Why did you vote Jimmay when you clearly didn't want to?

Fleabag

What does that mean?

No, I'm really asking.

There was a point in Fleabag where Jay took multiple votes at the end of a day phase in the form of a flashwagon. I took the opportunity to support it to make it look like it had some serious momentum, both to gauge Jay's reaction, and to gauge the thread's reaction to seeing him as a wagon.

Jay's reaction at the time I found townie. I already thought he was town (which I was right), so perhaps I had conf-biased myself, but I thought it was a potentially useful exercise nonetheless. I don't remember much else from that event.

Seeing momentum here, I thought it could be useful to try said tactic again. Jay does look like he's had momentum building on him since mid Day 2 or so. I however think he's still performed just fine under that pressure.


Also, as I've said before, I think Jay is turning into the fallguy for the heat being put on the towncore, and I believe that makes it more likely a miss.

Wat.

That was a complete meme wagon, and Jimmay was never going over in that game.

Whereas here, the suspicion on him is very real.

Do you expect him to perform bad under pressure as mafia more?

Why do you have that feeling, that he's the fallguy? Ender and me have pressured him, Alison to a lesser degree.

I mean, someone who isn't caught up and peaks at the poll doesn't know that

I've already explained it. Boq/jjj/Alison keep getting mentioned as a group, and Jay is taking most of the heat of that group

Boq had taken some.

Alison has taken next to none.


What do you think about that

[NateTheLesser]

@NateTheLesser You seem to suspect both Creature and Fingers. What do you think of my reasoning for them being anti-teamed, with Fingers jumping on Creature near EoD2 instead of the competing wagon, Marmot?

Well, I don't think Fingers could reasonably vote Marmot there because she was townreading him (and he was shielding her). I think it's mildly unpairing that she voted Creature instead of Wilgy though, and that she's brought up Creature suspicion again today. I don't think that vote can't be partnered, especially since trying to seem unpaired is a good thing to do when you think you could be the chop.

My confidence in Fingers being a hit has waned somewhat today, however. Mainly for posts like this:

Why are the names Alison/Boq/JJJ often being tossed around together? I think I get it, in that they were unanimously townread early on, but I think Jay has had a much more significant impact on the game than either of the other two. Also Rondo and Nate have been more fairly consensus town I think than any of those three.

I have seen luc, Dizzy, and fingersplints all do this btw

I didn’t create the grouping. I’m just making a concerted effort to talk about what the group is discussing that isn’t just about me, and since I was asked about jay and boq it seemed relevant to talk about them as a trio since I heard that group mentioned

Have you stated an opinion on Alison? If not, do you have one?

I do think I’ve mentioned her, but tbh I have no idea what my stance was on her anymore. She’s gone off my radar for the most part.
She feels a bit off but in a way that is probably NAI so tough to read

This does give me town vibes for a couple reasons. #1, if Fingers is a wolf and Alison is town, I think there's a good chance of Alison being the NK last night, or at least in the running. #2, Alison's was the strongest push on Fingers yesterday. So I would expect a w!Fingers to have an opinion of some kind on Alison today, most likely more negative than "feels a bit off." That said, I'm hoping she does some actually towny things.

Still good with killing Creature though.

[Marmot]

And also, what do you think about L
Alison in general?

[NateTheLesser]

@NateTheLesser You seem to suspect both Creature and Fingers. What do you think of my reasoning for them being anti-teamed, with Fingers jumping on Creature near EoD2 instead of the competing wagon, Marmot?

Well, I don't think Fingers could reasonably vote Marmot there because she was townreading him (and he was shielding her). I think it's mildly unpairing that she voted Creature instead of Wilgy though, and that she's brought up Creature suspicion again today. I don't think that vote can't be partnered, especially since trying to seem unpaired is a good thing to do when you think you could be the chop.

My confidence in Fingers being a hit has waned somewhat today, however. Mainly for posts like this:

Why are the names Alison/Boq/JJJ often being tossed around together? I think I get it, in that they were unanimously townread early on, but I think Jay has had a much more significant impact on the game than either of the other two. Also Rondo and Nate have been more fairly consensus town I think than any of those three.

I have seen luc, Dizzy, and fingersplints all do this btw

I didn’t create the grouping. I’m just making a concerted effort to talk about what the group is discussing that isn’t just about me, and since I was asked about jay and boq it seemed relevant to talk about them as a trio since I heard that group mentioned

Have you stated an opinion on Alison? If not, do you have one?

I do think I’ve mentioned her, but tbh I have no idea what my stance was on her anymore. She’s gone off my radar for the most part.
She feels a bit off but in a way that is probably NAI so tough to read

This does give me town vibes for a couple reasons. #1, if Fingers is a wolf and Alison is town, I think there's a good chance of Alison being the NK last night, or at least in the running. #2, Alison's was the strongest push on Fingers yesterday. So I would expect a w!Fingers to have an opinion of some kind on Alison today, most likely more negative than "feels a bit off." That said, I'm hoping she does some actually towny things.

Still good with killing Creature though.

I do still think they've mentioned each other at odd times, though. Fingers wanted specifically Falcon over Creature when she voted D1. Creature gave her an early townread before she'd really posted much D1 and then hedged it when he was asked about it. D2 Creature entered the thread at one point asking why there was a wagon on Fingers, and then didn't interact at all with the case (which I think is scummy of Creature regardless of Fingers' alignment).

[Dyslexicon]

I mean, someone who isn't caught up and peaks at the poll doesn't know that

I've already explained it. Boq/jjj/Alison keep getting mentioned as a group, and Jay is taking most of the heat of that group

Boq had taken some.

Alison has taken next to none.


What do you think about that

I think Alison is taking just as much rn actually.

Anyway, I want Alison to actually be here.

I'm not at all convinced by Jay

[fingersplints]

My current negative impression of Alison.

She has largely avoided the spotlight lately, but fanned the fire in certain places over the last day or so. In particular, her comments about Ender/JJJ yesterday, as well as lucy after sean and I pressured her. Alison's observations are agreeable enough, but I have growing concern about her lack of engagement, as these comments seem to come from a distance.

My summary view of Alison:

Day 1 - Good
Day 2 - Good
Day 3 - What

This is why I think the recent weirdness is NAI though. I’ve seen scum Alison and I wouldn’t say disinterest or lack of engagement compared to town Alison. I think something else might be keeping her away.

I mean by all means suspect her, but personally id just like to hear what she has to say first.

[Marmot]

I think NKA can be really telling in mountainous, and I'm trying not to hand-wave away Mac's death as solely "well he was dying N1 no matter what" in case there's something there. More specifically, if I'm the wolves, and I see that Mac's kill list is all misses, do I leave him alive? A forceful townie that you know is wrong can be pretty helpful. In other words, does Mac's death make it more likely that he was right about at least one of Dizzy/Creature/Marmot?

I would say, in a vacuum, yes. I'm just not sure how much "more" likely -- much more, or just "statistically" more. If we look at night kills alone then Marmot is the standout (perhaps Dizzy). Creature is, in my view, less likely to kill Seanzie.

Have you talked about my thoughts on Marmot? I don't mean to keep plugging these walls, but they summarize my posture on things and serve as a starting point for dialogues.

I read it but I haven't talked about it. We're in the same wheelhouse on Marmot, town but with a few rough spots. I don't think he answered the specific questions in your wall, though I saw he responded to it in general.

Can I ask what you mean by rough spots?

[Dyslexicon]

And also, what do you think about L
Alison in general?

I think her direction has been overall pretty bad. I didn't like a lot of her posts at the start of the game, but think they've been ok otherwise. Thing is, she's a bit more meh and floaty than I'd expect her to be as mafia. But I don't know if that's a good expectation, probably not tbh. I recall suspecting her in a game we were both town, and she ended up omgusing me hard, or we both did. That was different circumstances though. All in all, I really don't know. I suspect bad direction, and that is bad in itself. My impressions of her are pretty vague, if you can't tell

[Marmot]

And also, what do you think about L
Alison in general?

I think her direction has been overall pretty bad. I didn't like a lot of her posts at the start of the game, but think they've been ok otherwise. Thing is, she's a bit more meh and floaty than I'd expect her to be as mafia. But I don't know if that's a good expectation, probably not tbh. I recall suspecting her in a game we were both town, and she ended up omgusing me hard, or we both did. That was different circumstances though. All in all, I really don't know. I suspect bad direction, and that is bad in itself. My impressions of her are pretty vague, if you can't tell

I can tell.

[Marmot]

She is starting to receive more heat, but I mean in general this game she has not received much.

[Dyslexicon]

She is starting to receive more heat, but I mean in general this game she has not received much.

She received votes from me and Boq on D2. Which is a bit more than what I would say for Jay tbh.

But I get it. You don't want to vote Jay. You think he's a scape goat and town. Noted.

[NateTheLesser]

I think NKA can be really telling in mountainous, and I'm trying not to hand-wave away Mac's death as solely "well he was dying N1 no matter what" in case there's something there. More specifically, if I'm the wolves, and I see that Mac's kill list is all misses, do I leave him alive? A forceful townie that you know is wrong can be pretty helpful. In other words, does Mac's death make it more likely that he was right about at least one of Dizzy/Creature/Marmot?

I would say, in a vacuum, yes. I'm just not sure how much "more" likely -- much more, or just "statistically" more. If we look at night kills alone then Marmot is the standout (perhaps Dizzy). Creature is, in my view, less likely to kill Seanzie.

Have you talked about my thoughts on Marmot? I don't mean to keep plugging these walls, but they summarize my posture on things and serve as a starting point for dialogues.

I read it but I haven't talked about it. We're in the same wheelhouse on Marmot, town but with a few rough spots. I don't think he answered the specific questions in your wall, though I saw he responded to it in general.

Can I ask what you mean by rough spots?

Maybe "things that concern me" is a better way to put it. Like, you look the worst from taking the NKA at face value. And you were an important vote for both mischops (though I think your vote switching around them is overall towny).

[Marmot]

She is starting to receive more heat, but I mean in general this game she has not received much.

She received votes from me and Boq on D2. Which is a bit more than what I would say for Jay tbh.

But I get it. You don't want to vote Jay. You think he's a scape goat and town. Noted.

Do you think we're crazy for trying to elim in Boq/Alison/JJJ today? It feels like the thread is moving that way.

[Marmot]

I think NKA can be really telling in mountainous, and I'm trying not to hand-wave away Mac's death as solely "well he was dying N1 no matter what" in case there's something there. More specifically, if I'm the wolves, and I see that Mac's kill list is all misses, do I leave him alive? A forceful townie that you know is wrong can be pretty helpful. In other words, does Mac's death make it more likely that he was right about at least one of Dizzy/Creature/Marmot?

I would say, in a vacuum, yes. I'm just not sure how much "more" likely -- much more, or just "statistically" more. If we look at night kills alone then Marmot is the standout (perhaps Dizzy). Creature is, in my view, less likely to kill Seanzie.

Have you talked about my thoughts on Marmot? I don't mean to keep plugging these walls, but they summarize my posture on things and serve as a starting point for dialogues.

I read it but I haven't talked about it. We're in the same wheelhouse on Marmot, town but with a few rough spots. I don't think he answered the specific questions in your wall, though I saw he responded to it in general.

Can I ask what you mean by rough spots?

Maybe "things that concern me" is a better way to put it. Like, you look the worst from taking the NKA at face value. And you were an important vote for both mischops (though I think your vote switching around them is overall towny).

My vote for Ender was important?

[Marmot]

I think we're talking past each other a bit Dizzy, I want to try to understand your read on Jay, so I'll go take a look again.

[Dyslexicon]

Do you think we're crazy for trying to elim in Boq/Alison/JJJ today? It feels like the thread is moving that way.

Not at all. I just said I would like Alison/Jay wagons. I'm not up for a Boq chop though.

[NateTheLesser]

I think NKA can be really telling in mountainous, and I'm trying not to hand-wave away Mac's death as solely "well he was dying N1 no matter what" in case there's something there. More specifically, if I'm the wolves, and I see that Mac's kill list is all misses, do I leave him alive? A forceful townie that you know is wrong can be pretty helpful. In other words, does Mac's death make it more likely that he was right about at least one of Dizzy/Creature/Marmot?

I would say, in a vacuum, yes. I'm just not sure how much "more" likely -- much more, or just "statistically" more. If we look at night kills alone then Marmot is the standout (perhaps Dizzy). Creature is, in my view, less likely to kill Seanzie.

Have you talked about my thoughts on Marmot? I don't mean to keep plugging these walls, but they summarize my posture on things and serve as a starting point for dialogues.

I read it but I haven't talked about it. We're in the same wheelhouse on Marmot, town but with a few rough spots. I don't think he answered the specific questions in your wall, though I saw he responded to it in general.

Can I ask what you mean by rough spots?

Maybe "things that concern me" is a better way to put it. Like, you look the worst from taking the NKA at face value. And you were an important vote for both mischops (though I think your vote switching around them is overall towny).

My vote for Ender was important?

You were on Falcon prior to that, that's the vote I mean.

[Marmot]

Let's have an exercise
If you had an alignment check, who would be your first pick to check and why?

Wilgy

I think that sort would potentially break the game open

Huh hm
In your analysis of interactions, he is in the least amount of worlds though? Wouldn't it be better to pick someone who has equity with plenty of people?

That's a low bar in this game, unfortunately (least amount of worlds). To know that DrWilgy is town would secure me more in my process and give me important insights about a number of folks that have interacted with his slot throughout the game, including those who've town read him. A mafia Wilgy might represent a narrow POE.

In any event, ain't no checks

I think this whole line is pretty damning for Jimmay.

Recall that he did an interaction analysis who showed that Wilgy was not compatible with a lot of people, and had a town lean on Wilgy. The answer of wanting a cop check on Wilgy doesn't make sense, especially with people like me and Alison in the game. I don't understand how it would break the game open, and if it did - THE GAME IS OPEN NOW @JaggedJimmyJay

When confronted about this, I'm not at all satisfied with his answer. Now he is undermining his own interaction analysis, saying it's a low bar to in this game. And he ends the discussion with saying there are no checks, which reads very "no checks anyway, so nothing to worry about".

I don't like this at all.

Plenty of things I don't like about Jimmay. He hasn't asked why Sean died or got into NKA with that, like he did with Mac.
I don't buy his Ender push either.

He's also being weird around Marmot's town case of Fingers.

I don't expect to make a great case on Jimmay here, but I'm pretty positive he's mafia here. So I hope I'm right, cause I'm unlikely to change my vote.

I do agree with you on several of these points tbh.

Although can you talk more about his "being weird on my town case of fingers"? I can think of a few reasons why Jay might act weird around that, but I'm curious why you say that.


But in particular, I agree that Jay undermining his own work seems kinda sus. Why go to all that work if it doesn't provide useful ouput or information to work with?

I know Jay didn't support a Wilgy yeet. He wasn't very vocal about it, but I do know he didn't support it at least.

[NateTheLesser]

Let's have an exercise
If you had an alignment check, who would be your first pick to check and why?

Wilgy

I think that sort would potentially break the game open

Huh hm
In your analysis of interactions, he is in the least amount of worlds though? Wouldn't it be better to pick someone who has equity with plenty of people?

That's a low bar in this game, unfortunately (least amount of worlds). To know that DrWilgy is town would secure me more in my process and give me important insights about a number of folks that have interacted with his slot throughout the game, including those who've town read him. A mafia Wilgy might represent a narrow POE.

In any event, ain't no checks

I think this whole line is pretty damning for Jimmay.

Recall that he did an interaction analysis who showed that Wilgy was not compatible with a lot of people, and had a town lean on Wilgy. The answer of wanting a cop check on Wilgy doesn't make sense, especially with people like me and Alison in the game. I don't understand how it would break the game open, and if it did - THE GAME IS OPEN NOW @JaggedJimmyJay

When confronted about this, I'm not at all satisfied with his answer. Now he is undermining his own interaction analysis, saying it's a low bar to in this game. And he ends the discussion with saying there are no checks, which reads very "no checks anyway, so nothing to worry about".

I don't like this at all.

Plenty of things I don't like about Jimmay. He hasn't asked why Sean died or got into NKA with that, like he did with Mac.
I don't buy his Ender push either.

He's also being weird around Marmot's town case of Fingers.

I don't expect to make a great case on Jimmay here, but I'm pretty positive he's mafia here. So I hope I'm right, cause I'm unlikely to change my vote.

I do agree with you on several of these points tbh.

Although can you talk more about his "being weird on my town case of fingers"? I can think of a few reasons why Jay might act weird around that, but I'm curious why you say that.


But in particular, I agree that Jay undermining his own work seems kinda sus. Why go to all that work if it doesn't provide useful ouput or information to work with?

I know Jay didn't support a Wilgy yeet. He wasn't very vocal about it, but I do know he didn't support it at least.

How was he undermining his own work? I haven't really understood that argument. Seemed like he was saying he'd alignment check the player with the most unpairings, because it would do the most to either validate his work or tell him to throw it out.

[NateTheLesser]

@Boquise, where are you at on Fingersplints?

[NateTheLesser]

And what makes you think she's being grouped together with you?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The notion that I was undermining myself is perhaps one of the most frustrating things I am being confronted with in this day phase. It feels like the hyper-nitpicking of language that I experienced in the season 7 finale -- I realize that any town players involved don't intend to nitpick or think they're nitpicking; it's just the frustration I face.

DrWilgy was the player with the fewest viable teams in my chart. However, he still had four connections. Usually, in most games, when I do charts like these, the player with the fewest viable teams has about 1 or 2 connections -- so few that I can pretty much just say "you're town" and move on. It was unfortunate that I was not able to achieve the same in this game, and I said before that I suspected the character of the game thread was less amenable to it (as are players with lower post counts, such as Wilgy).

He had the fewest potential teammates, but he still had enough that the idea of a hypothetical cop check appealed to me in a moment of thinking about it. If he checks red, then I have about four people potentially on his team -- if my analysis is true, then the game is basically over by POE. Game-breaking. If the check is green, then I can feel greater assurance that my work is on the right track (remember that Seanzie had just spent some time telling me that it wasn't), and it would provide me with a lot of analytic direction for people's treatment of a green checked LHF godzilla (Wilgy) that, to so many mafia teams of the Syndicate past, has been a delicious juicy treat waiting to be eaten.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Creature what are you doing

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The notion that I was undermining myself is perhaps one of the most frustrating things I am being confronted with in this day phase. It feels like the hyper-nitpicking of language that I experienced in the season 7 finale -- I realize that any town players involved don't intend to nitpick or think they're nitpicking; it's just the frustration I face.

[snip for length]

I think folks also need to acknowledge that just a few of my posts before giving my Wilgy answer, I had posted this (click). This is exactly what was on my mind.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just making a note that we don't have notes yet from Alison, fingersplints, or lucy.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just making a note that we don't have votes yet from Alison, fingersplints, or lucy.

[Creature]

Are we losing?

[Creature]

I'm tired

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[Creature]

This thread feels like wolves' party

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This thread feels like wolves' party

what does that mean

[Creature]

This thread feels like wolves' party

what does that mean

idk

I'm looking at a lot of posts and keep thinking "this could be a wolf with high WIM" especially after we already mislynched twice.

[NateTheLesser]

Creature, have you read anything?

[Creature]

Creature, have you read anything?

No

[NateTheLesser]

This thread feels like wolves' party

what does that mean

idk

I'm looking at a lot of posts and keep thinking "this could be a wolf with high WIM" especially after we already mislynched twice.

Name names.

[Creature]

This thread feels like wolves' party

what does that mean

idk

I'm looking at a lot of posts and keep thinking "this could be a wolf with high WIM" especially after we already mislynched twice.

Name names.

lucy is one I went through

Dyslexicon feels like another

[JaggedJimmyJay]

lucy is one I went through

Dyslexicon feels like another

Are you able to point to or just recall any particular posts that gave you that impression

[fingersplints]

Just making a note that we don't have votes yet from Alison, fingersplints, or lucy.

@Marmot to the second part I can’t help you there. My memory for mafia games has gotten bad (I can remember stuff that happened but forget the game name. Things like that)
My RL just really doesn’t allow me to play big games.

Spoiler: show

unsurprisingly, having a disabled spouse, special needs child, and little baby leaves me with very little time

I put that in spoilers since it’s RL related so you can all choose to ignore it

Ive seen you call creature out like 3 times while youve been here. You havent dropped a vote. Why?

For a lot of my mafia career votes weren’t changeable like this, so voting once is a habit I picked up. Sometimes I try and go against that and vote early for little or fun reasons like everyone else does but when I do it always gets a lot of flak (see joke vote for dizzy this game) so I’m going to go back to what I’m more comfortable with and vote only when I’m sure that I’d be ok with that being my vote in the end of need be.

Spoiler: show

I’m still leaning Creature

[fingersplints]

Also Jay, I think Wilgy was a solid choice for pretend role check. That choice doesn’t bother me at all

[Dyslexicon]

This thread feels like wolves' party

what does that mean

idk

I'm looking at a lot of posts and keep thinking "this could be a wolf with high WIM" especially after we already mislynched twice.

Name names.

lucy is one I went through

Dyslexicon feels like another

Stop me

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

[Dyslexicon]

I’ve never seem Creature be this useless as town

[Creature]

lucy is one I went through

Dyslexicon feels like another

Are you able to point to or just recall any particular posts that gave you that impression

The posts in the previous page

[Creature]

I’ve never seem Creature be this useless as town

I feel like you're only voting town and openwolfing so far

[Marmot]

I’ve never seem Creature be this useless as town

Let's please not describe players in this way

[robyn]

This thread feels like wolves' party

what does that mean

idk

I'm looking at a lot of posts and keep thinking "this could be a wolf with high WIM" especially after we already mislynched twice.

Name names.

lucy is one I went through

Dyslexicon feels like another

pls elaborate

[NateTheLesser]

lucy is one I went through

Dyslexicon feels like another

Are you able to point to or just recall any particular posts that gave you that impression

The posts in the previous page

These?

only got 4h of sleep last night lol

interesting alison vote

@Alison yodelayheehoo

[Creature]

lucy is one I went through

Dyslexicon feels like another

Are you able to point to or just recall any particular posts that gave you that impression

The posts in the previous page

These?

only got 4h of sleep last night lol

interesting alison vote

@Alison yodelayheehoo

Yes, I went through these and asked myself why couldn't it be wolf happy with the current gamestate.

[Dyslexicon]

I’ve never seem Creature be this useless as town

I feel like you're only voting town and openwolfing so far

Cool. So you should give an account for who is town, why, and who is not, and save this game.

Or else I'll just win while openwolving, and what would be terrible, right?

Go.

[Dyslexicon]

I’ve never seem Creature be this useless as town

Let's please not describe players in this way

It's within context of this game.

He's been lazily throwing my name around for a while with nothing to it.

I have asked him direct questions which he hasn't answered.

His whining is so over the top, I really hope it's fake.