PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[nutella]

- The day the jailkeep happened, I thought I had really solved that it must be Marl or Vulgard as one of the scum. I solved that forgetting that scum would not be free to kill Amy as they pleased, which I didn't think about. That in itself you can call a derp moment, but I'm fine if people want to wave that off as NAI. What is AI imo is that I had a real reaction to thinking this and then realising my mistake. I also had a real reaction to Marl going off at me and immediately realised that Marl was not it. The thing is that I wouldn't have a reaction to this in real time if I was scum and already knew. And then there's the discrepancy between my inner experience and what I express. But I think my reaction can be traced with how I post.

Never considered this



...

What if it's me?

this is truly a 2001 ford ranger xlt moment

[c4e5g3d5]

Well if you're town, do you really trust me to vote correctly in F3?

Uh.

I don't understand this question. That depends on what correctly is, and it depends who is in F3 and it depends on how the game looks then and also how much work you are willing to put in.

I'm saying that I don't think I have a great reason to fight for survival.

if this is the case, why even bother making a self-preservation vote at the end of yesterday? why not let yourself die?

I don't have to fight tooth and nail to type out [ vote ] Arete [ /vote ]

[c4e5g3d5]

spf is my new haven't-done-due-diligence-in-longest-period-of-time slot

[staypositivefriend]

Well if you're town, do you really trust me to vote correctly in F3?

Uh.

I don't understand this question. That depends on what correctly is, and it depends who is in F3 and it depends on how the game looks then and also how much work you are willing to put in.

I'm saying that I don't think I have a great reason to fight for survival.

if this is the case, why even bother making a self-preservation vote at the end of yesterday? why not let yourself die?

I don't have to fight tooth and nail to type out [ vote ] Arete [ /vote ]

right, but you're making it sound like you think it would be beneficial for you to die before the f3. at the same time, you made a move at the end of yesterday that guaranteed that you would survive for another day. i'm just curious if dying in this game is something that you actually want to happen

[c4e5g3d5]

Well if you're town, do you really trust me to vote correctly in F3?

Uh.

I don't understand this question. That depends on what correctly is, and it depends who is in F3 and it depends on how the game looks then and also how much work you are willing to put in.

I'm saying that I don't think I have a great reason to fight for survival.

if this is the case, why even bother making a self-preservation vote at the end of yesterday? why not let yourself die?

I don't have to fight tooth and nail to type out [ vote ] Arete [ /vote ]

right, but you're making it sound like you think it would be beneficial for you to die before the f3. at the same time, you made a move at the end of yesterday that guaranteed that you would survive for another day. i'm just curious if dying in this game is something that you actually want to happen

Won't try to stop it if it's written on the walls is all

[staypositivefriend]

Well if you're town, do you really trust me to vote correctly in F3?

Uh.

I don't understand this question. That depends on what correctly is, and it depends who is in F3 and it depends on how the game looks then and also how much work you are willing to put in.

I'm saying that I don't think I have a great reason to fight for survival.

if this is the case, why even bother making a self-preservation vote at the end of yesterday? why not let yourself die?

I don't have to fight tooth and nail to type out [ vote ] Arete [ /vote ]

right, but you're making it sound like you think it would be beneficial for you to die before the f3. at the same time, you made a move at the end of yesterday that guaranteed that you would survive for another day. i'm just curious if dying in this game is something that you actually want to happen

Won't try to stop it if it's written on the walls is all

but you did try to stop it, by putting the majority on arete. that's my point :P

[c4e5g3d5]

Uh.

I don't understand this question. That depends on what correctly is, and it depends who is in F3 and it depends on how the game looks then and also how much work you are willing to put in.

I'm saying that I don't think I have a great reason to fight for survival.

if this is the case, why even bother making a self-preservation vote at the end of yesterday? why not let yourself die?

I don't have to fight tooth and nail to type out [ vote ] Arete [ /vote ]

right, but you're making it sound like you think it would be beneficial for you to die before the f3. at the same time, you made a move at the end of yesterday that guaranteed that you would survive for another day. i'm just curious if dying in this game is something that you actually want to happen

Won't try to stop it if it's written on the walls is all

but you did try to stop it, by putting the majority on arete. that's my point :P

I think I'm in a sliiiiightly worse position today than yesterday

[nutella]

im feeling pretty psyduck rn

spf making me sus of her again

[staypositivefriend]

im feeling pretty psyduck rn

spf making me sus of her again

if it helps, i just spent a solid hour tinfoiling you

[nutella]

cool lol

[nutella]

it's probably c4

his pivot off of dizzy and onto you after refusing to entertain doing so for days seems manufactured

[outed wolf]

c4 just do SOMETHING

[c4e5g3d5]

it's probably c4

his pivot off of dizzy and onto you after refusing to entertain doing so for days seems manufactured

I didn't pivot onto her
What

[nutella]

it's probably c4

his pivot off of dizzy and onto you after refusing to entertain doing so for days seems manufactured

I didn't pivot onto her
What

i mean you finally said you would look into her bc you finally admitted dizzy looks good
you refused to even consider her for days

[outed wolf]

you have two kills to win the game c4, who are they?

[c4e5g3d5]

it's probably c4

his pivot off of dizzy and onto you after refusing to entertain doing so for days seems manufactured

I didn't pivot onto her
What

i mean you finally said you would look into her bc you finally admitted dizzy looks good
you refused to even consider her for days

Because it took days for Dizzy to post the thing about his Marl reaction and the derp potential
Or I'm blind

[c4e5g3d5]

you have two kills to win the game c4, who are they?

Dizzy spf

I still think both your and nut's treatment of dya was too batshit to be bussing
Moreso nut's

[outed wolf]

wait so you think spf is a wolf now?

[staypositivefriend]

o_________O

[c4e5g3d5]

wait so you think spf is a wolf now?

No

[staypositivefriend]

am i obvious town, or am i the person you would kill in the f3?

it cant be both

[outed wolf]

but you think they are more likely a wolf than me/nutella?

so walk me through your thoughts on them then

[nutella]

..so dizzy is actually derp cleared and spf is your top meta townread but the only other person left

sounds like ur boxed in fam

[c4e5g3d5]

but you think they are more likely a wolf than me/nutella?

so walk me through your thoughts on them then

Right now I'm thinking "most likely slot I'm messing up" only because of my relative lack of reevaluation, nothing to do with how towny/wolfy she or any of her interactions with wolves are
You just caught me when I hadn't finished my rounds is all

[staypositivefriend]

c4, will you have a firm answer on my alignment by the EOD? not "i would maybe kill SPF in f3", i mean: "SPF is town" or "SPF is mafia"

[outed wolf]

well id really appreciate you doing some work pal

[c4e5g3d5]

c4, will you have a firm answer on my alignment by the EOD? not "i would maybe kill SPF in f3", i mean: "SPF is town" or "SPF is mafia"

I'll try
I'll probably take my time if I do though
Because, you know

[outed wolf]

good question, i don’t really know

nutella - ?
vulgard - red
arete - green
marl - green

^ these should all be villagers

sunbae - green
amy - green
spf - ?
dizzy - ?

^ i have positive feelings about these but wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a wolf playing well here given the names

c4 - ?
zack - green
visor - green
alison - green
dya - red
tangy - green

^ i don’t really have a concrete read on these so i assume a couple of them are wolves

kza - red

[outed wolf]

nutella - ?
Chloe - v
Arete - v
Marl - v
nl - v
vulgard - w

spf - ?
c4 - ?
dizzy - ?
sunbae - v

alison - v
dya - w
zack - v

unordered within tiers

[outed wolf]

Town
Sunbae - v
Amy - v

Likely Town
Marl - v
SPF - ?
Nutella - ?
Dizzy - ?
Outed Wolf - v

Think villa but wouldn't bet game on it
Bronana - v
Arete - v


POE
C4 - ?
Chloe - v
Dya - w

Wolf
Vulgard - w

[outed wolf]

ASLO

i would like to point out that the sunbae/bronana/outed wolf BROLLIANCE was CLEAN

smh

[outed wolf]

oh and i voted nutella to get a reaction out of her cause i knew shed react to it lmao

i think spf asked that somewhere

[outed wolf]

Strong town
Dizzy - As the player I know the second best out of everyone here, it's natural that I have thoughts here. Dizzy could do anything as scum, I'm convinced, and he could do anything as any alignment to some extent, lol. Wide range is accurate. He's fooled me embarrassingly before, but I don't know, I think the universe in which Dizzy assessed his place in this game with a town role card better matches his behavior thus far than if he were scum. This is mostly driven by a self-centered read actually, so I suppose while it's close to strong now it could also be the most subject to volatility with additional factors, but he and I have a long-standing joke about how we never role the same alignment (I swear it's true though), and I was anxiously awaiting how he would interact with me with an entrance here. I think the way he played to me here reads pretty genuine. The way he played to the thread is worthy of a light town read (update: with his recent posting, I probably feel even better about this particular assessment, he seems carefree). I also think this re: Gavial seems unnecessary if he's scum. I'm not worried about Dizzy right now, even if I maybe should be.
nutella - I wouldn't say nutella has an "easy" meta by any means because I think that's disrespectful to her abilities to play a variety of approaches as a seasoned vet, but she does have a tendency to just scream I'M A VILLAGER to me emotionally (and apparently to others whether through emotions and/or her methodology) when she actually is, and it's understandable that she has a hard time matching that as scum fairly often. To say the least, town nutella, that's what I'm seeing here. She is just oozing genuine emotion about the game, her position, I already thought she was seeming town given the "situation" earlier, but ever since then a lot of her posts have spoken to me. I can try to elaborate upon this when I have more time if it's warranted, but yeah, I'll just play the "I've known nutella for over 10 years and I trust myself enough at this point to be able to read her" card whenever I do feel strongly about her alignment, and that is the case right now (insert disclaimer about reassessment). Please do not yeet her.

from tangrowth

[outed wolf]

arete if you could give a breakdown of what you think of the players/who you think is most likely wolf with 2 hits, most likely villas, etc thatd be great

maybe if youve noticed anything in particular

[bronana]

Good job wolf, you killed the guy who displayed a remarkable knack for convincing his fellow villagers to kill villagers, and he has a deadpost too. And an unsettling propensity for referring to himself in the third person.

I don't know how much you should really read into my death. There are a lot of possible reasons, and it possibly had little to do with my reads per se and more that the wolf simply figured I was annoying and stubborn and difficult to misluncheon.

The flowchart from Sunbae, hallowed be His name, points to c4 as the remaining suspect. He deemed nutella/spf/outed wolf/dizzy as Not Wolves with vulgard and/or dya. This deserves weight and consideration, but - and forgive me for blaspheming - you should still go through your due diligence bubbas, rather than take His word for pure gospel. (And even if He was wrong about the flowchart, He is still the MVP anyway, obviously.) For what it's worth, I ~generally agree with Sunbae here. Maybe Arete was correct that Vulgard wouldn't make that post about all three wolfbros like that, not sure what c4 is doing here as a wolf for that matter. Problem is I'm not sure what he's doing as a villa either. I'd like to see more effort from that corner in general.

I do have some concern about visor, the way vulgard talked about him doesn't look great imo. dya barely ever talked to or about him (but possibly in a w/v kinda way). When I skimmed through his iso I got a bad feeling in my tummy, but there's also some slick stuff if he's a wolf (asking sunbae about the bracket order stuff wrt dya, panicking about people saying he's a wolf if vulgard flipped v, antagonizing nutella for no reason today). The eod4 with the performance art shit and the way he was phrasing things in such a troll-y way skeeves me out, it's pretty ????? as villa and maybe he said fuck it why not try to make some chaos when he was about to stare down 8v1 (as a wolf). I dunno man, I don't want to be wrong on visor either way and there is some weird shit both ways.

I have some concern about spf. They have been underwhelming for awhile now, and yeah yeah she said she's busy, but

This was one of marl's last posts:

I think the last wolf is in syn/dizzy/spf

SPF turning on c4 is more or less what i'd expect when the noose of the PoE starts shrinking onto them as we near the endgame

Syn just has like
no reason to townread him at all

and dizzy i still feel felt agenda-ey to me the day vulgard died, even if they've explained their thought processes

Think it was pretty reasonable for spf to kill marl (he also was going to hard-defend arete), and then killing nutella over me last night probably hurts more than it helps by painting a target on her back. (I do regret that "has it occurred to you that you might be wrong" post btw, it probably came off a lot douchier than I intended in text without vocal cues / tone behind it. It was meant more as a real question that was poorly worded and came off as a rhetorical snark. Sometimes I do get wrapped up in playing devil's advocate and the plot gets lost somewhere.)

tbh I expected nutella to die and was ready to vote spf "4 nutella!!!!"

Sunbae mentioned a few times that he thought Vulgard was getting people to towncase SPF for him, fwiw.

Zack notices that about SPF, but his take is "wolf writes a post they think sounds good," not "wolf TMIng c4e/Hally (?)." Still like the fact he chose to point that out, though he isn't committing. V lean.

Frankly, this line is just bizarre if spf is town. Though to be fair, it's probably bizarre either way. Maybe he was only trying to subtly imply I should townread c4.

I don't have much concern about nutella or dizzy, if either is a wolf then gg, I am wrong. Incorrect. Not right. also you hard townread each other so not my fault ldo.

When I started this post I figured it was just c4 but by the end of it I think it might be spf. Then I marinated a few hours and wonder if it might be visor. villagy stream-of-consciousness from bronana tbh. spf admitting she's only played 3 or 4 games with c4 seemed like a wait what moment with how confident he's been about meta-reading her and how comfortable spf has been accepting it as some quasi-godread. All the recent dead villas (syn/arete/marl) other than me had spf in the heart of their POE

I am surprised she's using my death to defend visor, though, not sure what to make of that. On the face of it, spf killing me then using it to defend visor doesn't make sense as a wolf, it's boxing herself in for no reason. or does it? Maybe she only said it to get townread and won't actually defend visor if it comes to it. Also all she's doing today is asking softball questions to people and not really pushing anyone.

I'm overthinking shit and going in circles so maybe you shouldn't listen to me at all lol. I did vote on the misyeet train the last two days - and every villager alive has one more piece of information than me, i.e. that they're a villager. You're good players, you can find the wolf. The simple suggestion is to kill c4, and if he's town duke it out in f3 amongst yourselves. I'd guess it's c4 or spf with a chance of visor, but marl didn't think it was c4 and didn't say much either way about visor

I will say, one thing that gave me pause on syn was that if he was a wolf that meant vulgard/dya/syn all voted on the same wagon d1 (gavial) & d2 (alison), which seemed unlikely but felt like a bad reason not to kill syn. Weirdly, those are the only meaningful votecounts for any kind of analysis out of six days lol (and d1 is somewhat questionable). KZA didn't vote afaict.

Visor voted with vulgard/dya d1 & d2 (so did I ) - 2/2
c4 voted with them d1 but not d2 (he voted dya) - 1/2
nutella voted KZA d1 and with dya/vulgard on alison d2 - 1/2
dizzy voted an alison vanity wagon d1 and dya d2 - 0/2
spf voted KZA d1 and dya d2 - 0/2

If that means anything at all. It would be a rare wolf team to have no one bussing or hard distancing dya in their d2 position, and all aligning their votes to save them.

dya townread c4 early, then eventually turned to wolfreading them d2. They continued to shade him a bit and say they wolfread him, but kept finding reasons to vote and push other people (now dead villagers) first, mostly alison and chloe/syn. I do think I make the most sense for c4 to NK (clearly annoyed by me itt, I was likely going after him today, very unlikely to get yeeted, nutella probably more likely to go elsewhere and clash with visor/spf).

If I was forced to make a kill order, I'd go c4 --> spf --> visor. Yes, I know this is too many kills. Maybe @Arete can chime in with more helpful thoughts than mine. Good thing I don't have to post and vote and stress out in the thread myself today. sorry pals, hang in there

Apologies for this post being so long and rambling and somewhat incoherently structured. Wasn't sure when to post, but thread has been dead for awhile so maybe this is a good time to give it a jolt and see what happens. I'm sick of looking at ISOs and overthinking everything, my head is spinning.

glgl

[outed wolf]

thx zack

i appreciate the tinfoilery

[staypositivefriend]

i appreciate the effort zack, but also -_________________________-

i'm not exactly in SPF Tryhard Mode right now but to say that i've been solely "underwhelming" i feel is unfair to the effort that i put into scumhunting in real time yesterday (and today as well)

also ive played closer to 4-5 games with c4, and he's read me with 100% accuracy in all of them. why would i be weirded out by him reading me accurately in this game too? i HAVE been concerned that he's been TMI'ing me as a villager, but your entire point about me "accepting" c4's read is absurdly silly

im annoyed that you used your post to tinfoil me and then put me in the POE but i understand that you cant respond and that im shouting into the void so w/e lol

[outed wolf]

so wheres your head at then spf

[staypositivefriend]

so wheres your head at then spf

well i guess it's fair to say that most of my scumhunting today has been internal - i've been "covering my bases" so to speak and making sure that my worldview in this game makes sense. i started that by allowing myself to "tinfoil" nutella and make sure that she's a villager. my concern about nutella stemmed from my inability to understand her thought process regarding her reaction to the start of today. i thought it was odd that she believed that zack dying made you look worse, and the way that she shifted from voting c4 to voting for you felt inorganic to me in the moment (you can see this reflected in the way that i was questioning her at the start of the day)

i theorized that we could live in a world where nutella killed zack because zack, to my memory, is the only player in this game that expressed concern about nutella yesterday (ie: "i'm worried we're clearing nutella too easily"), and because nutella thought that zack dying would make you look worse as a result. i no longer feel like this is the case - i think the nutella seemed to overstate the amount that zack was actually suspicious of outed wolf, but i don't think that was done from a place of opportunism - i think that nutella just saw that zack died and assumed that he would be an obvious kill target FYPOV because of how well the two of you know each other. i also think that nutella immediately proceeding to tinfoil me and c4 after pushing on you at daystart (while still maintaining the suspicion against you) shows that she's struggling to get her reads in a stable position. i think her reads are almost too fluid to come from a wolf POV, if that makes sense?

so yeah, i think that nutella is town, and i've more or less accepted that she's probably just going to win in a world where she's a wolf. that leaves you, dyslexicon, c4

dyslexicon has been a point of interest for me today - i have found his posts VERY villagery on a tonal level and i think there is a high depth of thought contained within his reads (like the point about vulgard's wording spewing c4 as a wolf) that usually just comes from a villager POV. my main concern about dizzy has been the fact that he apparently has a boundless scumrange and the fact that his presence in this game has been low enough that it's a bit harder for me to determine his alignment with confidence (which i know he complained about before :P). THAT SAID, i'm leaning on just writing off dizzy as town and leaving it at that, considering that tangrowth (who apparently is very experienced with him) townread him with a fairly high level of confidence, and considering the fact that nutella feels the same way. i also thought that the way dizzy kinda circled around from townreading me to wolfreading me again was villagery too, and indicative of a lack of agenda. if dizzy wanted to set me up as a mischop then i doubt that he would suddenly declare that im a villager at the start of the day only to shift it when he started to feel uneasy - i suspect that that type of uneasiness is villager indicative for him

so my mindset rn is that nutella is definitely town, and dizzy is probably town. i think the final wolf is between you and c4

c4 is an interesting case because his posts today are probably the wolfiest posts he's made all game - the way that he implied that i could be a wolf only to then effectively backtrack it felt kind of like he was being slippery to me - c4 is usually very blunt and to the point with his reads, whereas it felt in this case like c4 was partially afraid of getting caught in a crossfire and having people turn against him. i also think that he showed a little bit of mindset dissonance w/the way that he made a self-preservation vote at the end of yesterday, only to come into today expressing that he thinks he probably shouldn't be alive for f3. it's true that he's in a worse position, but c4 seemed similarly defeatist yesterday (he said: "yeah, i wouldnt want me in a f3 either" when the majority of votes were on him), so him making that move to stay alive just kinda rubbed me the wrong way. if c4 being chopped ends the game and i've just been foolishly clearing him for ~meta~ reasons then i guess i will simply swallow my pride and never emphasize meta strongly again lol. i think that he can be a wolf

that leaves you - i concluded yesterday that you were probably just a villager, and i don't particularly want to go back to tinfoiling you AGAIN after the long exchange we had - my trajectory w/reading you feels identical to my trajectory with reading sunbae, in the sense that i usually feel good about you in the moment but then bad once i left my mind linger a little bit more. the main concern i have about you today (and also a concern that i had yesterday) is that you just don't seem very concerned with finding the last wolf to me? like, if i could describe the atmosphere of the thread today in one word, it would be: "stressful". you don't sound stressed out to me. you don't sound particularly worried to me. it feels like you're just a vibing in a threadstate where the mood is anything but a vibe, lol, and that's what worries me. like even right now, what are you actually getting from asking me where my head is at? are you gonna go anywhere with it? is it gonna impact your reads at all? cause im concerned that youre just asking filler questions to give off the impression of scumhunting without actually doing it

[outed wolf]

i was mostly just interested in an update on what you were thinking

i thought about it overnight and im going to kill c4, thats it. if the games still going and i dont get nightkilled ill do my best to figure it out in f3.

im tired of raking myself over the coals for ww games, especially in endgames. c4 has the worst interactions with wolves, he has done the least amount of solving of everyone alive. if someone else is the wolf well i'll just be very villagery so i dont get voted.

[outed wolf]

i could sit out and stress over this game for hours on end like i have the last couple days, but im done. it didnt help me make any good decisions and i let arete and syn die when i wasnt even internally confident they would flip wolves. they were just an easy answer.

c4 is also an easy answer i suppose but i think hes also th emost likely out of those three and ive been trying to get him killed for days.

[staypositivefriend]

sure

it's just that in situations like this, my mind tends to run wild with tinfoil and paranoia and i have to constantly ground myself and re-assess my reads

whereas i dont really sense much of that paranoia/re-assessment from you - it just seems like youre vibing

im mostly just reiterating everything i said in my last post but i guess im just slightly worried about how chill you seem in contrast w/everyone else

[staypositivefriend]

that makes sense ig

[outed wolf]

believe me, im just as panicky and tinfoily as you. im just making an effort to not be that anymore. its a game, its okay if i get things wrong.

[outed wolf]

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

if i do end up in f3 ill do my best to read over stuff and come to a decision but i guess we will see what happens first.

[outed wolf]

"my trajectory w/reading you feels identical to my trajectory with reading sunbae, in the sense that i usually feel good about you in the moment but then bad once i left my mind linger a little bit more. "

if i had a nickel for every time something like this was said about me i could retire

i am an endless font of paranoia for people lol

[outed wolf]

i mean i am one of the few people vulgard actually tried to kill

idk why ppl dont wanna talk about that

why would he bus me when we are both bussing dyachei and i am widely townread?

[staypositivefriend]

he didn't make a concentrated effort to kill you, did he....?

i remember him saying to kill you after he died, but i dont realistically think you had any chance of going on d3, no?

[outed wolf]

i mean realisitically i had no chance of going over at any point but i was one of his actual pushes

lemme go quote every interaction with him - keep in mind i am basically townreading him through most of this because of aretes godread so what on earth is the point of him wolfreading me if we are the same alignment

i can just townread him and he can just townread me cause everyone else is townreading me - wed be fucking DEEP

[staypositivefriend]

well if vulgard was virtually guaranteed to go over on d3, and you were widely townread, then what does he have to lose by throwing shade on you? if anything, that just makes you look better after he inevitably flips red

it's possible i'm misremembering the severity of the push, though