Re: Se7en Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:00 am
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/
Someone who shoots someone and the target dies if they're mafia but the shooter dies if the target is town.Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:03 pmDefine: desperado?
Tbf Tutuu also claimed she got a warning that she was going to die so that could be what killed her. I still wouldn't open the gift.MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 2:04 am Tutuu died 38 minutes after the day ended. That's not an end of day resolution that's a during night resolution.
I received my gift 17 minutes after day ended.
I think that Tutuu blew up cuz she opened a gift.
Kate said Dennis was specifically greed though, and so far Seanzie's claims from the BTSC have been accurate. Also If Dennis were the actual John Doe then I don't really think he gives up this easily? He could very easily have been roleblocked or killed at night because he outed.MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:58 am No townie claiming the Pyxxy kill makes it even more likely methinks.
Maybe Dennis would just be dying anyway if we didn't flip him. Theorycraft time.
Pyxxy was John Doe. Dennis was Pride.
Pyxxy chose to use the pride role on n1, and chose to roleswap with Dennis. Roleswapping causes you to die one night later.
Dennis gets outed on day 2. He's fine with it cuz he can just roleswap his way out on night 2. So at no point does he give a shit. Kate knows this also because they had BTSC hence why she specifically ate the chop on purpose. So Dennis could get to night and swap out.
If the above were true, Dennis would die tonight and we're completely wasting a chop.
Btw I didn't know what the post restriction was but thought it was plausible I would die if I posted too much so I got in the habit of condensing my posts into walls. I said pretty much everything I wanted to say yesterday. I don't even think Tutuu died for the post restriction, I think she died for the note she got that she said she was going to die.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:47 amI have a tinfoil if tutuu was killed by this methodRondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:33 amI mean its the only thing that makes sense and with that in mind Mac is probably dead because he has been forced to be unable to vote for Seanzie
Thunal came into the day with a restriction as well and said she don't want to die if she posts much.
I have no idea how many posts she had that day, but I doubt they're many.
It's like she knew about the death sentence who came for posting over a number of posts and thought the action against her was similar with the action against tutuu.
I disliked the optimistic tone when she said we are in a good spot or something
Can you explain on Nanook? It's pretty hard for me to read him partly because I think his reaction posts at EoD2 were exaggerated regardless of his alignment.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:20 am This is for myself, a kind of reads list, but in the poll order
Dennis - outed scum
DrWilgy - low impact, maybe a sin, if not please play @DrWilgy
Dubz - busy IRL, relaxed tone, idk
Epignosis - i liked the analysis of the setup but that's not really AI.
falcon45ca - good tone, low impact, in the upper part of the null
jackofhearts2005 - time will tell, maybe town, not on the chopping block but he should show his towny soul if that’s his alignment
Macdougall - tinfoilable unfortunately. Not today.
Matahari - not very towny, not really scummy. I didn't notice agenda, so I will put her also above null.
Michelle -
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - suspicious
RondoDimBuckle - self confidemt, making a reactionary play, RTs, meh. Idk, hopefully town
Roxy - towny
S~V~S - looked like she is solving but i don't get the Poe except Nook, please explain @S~V~S
Thunal33 - my top town previous days, gives me paranoia for her fear of dying yday, but still town.
Nanook is tunneling me as town when I low post because he is convinced I can't high post as scum so there's no other explanation for me to low postThunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:28 amCan you explain on Nanook? It's pretty hard for me to read him partly because I think his reaction posts at EoD2 were exaggerated regardless of his alignment.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:20 am This is for myself, a kind of reads list, but in the poll order
Dennis - outed scum
DrWilgy - low impact, maybe a sin, if not please play @DrWilgy
Dubz - busy IRL, relaxed tone, idk
Epignosis - i liked the analysis of the setup but that's not really AI.
falcon45ca - good tone, low impact, in the upper part of the null
jackofhearts2005 - time will tell, maybe town, not on the chopping block but he should show his towny soul if that’s his alignment
Macdougall - tinfoilable unfortunately. Not today.
Matahari - not very towny, not really scummy. I didn't notice agenda, so I will put her also above null.
Michelle -
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - suspicious
RondoDimBuckle - self confidemt, making a reactionary play, RTs, meh. Idk, hopefully town
Roxy - towny
S~V~S - looked like she is solving but i don't get the Poe except Nook, please explain @S~V~S
Thunal33 - my top town previous days, gives me paranoia for her fear of dying yday, but still town.
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 2:07 pmIdk.
There's a theory that the wolves would help in making an early wagon to show activity, or a wolf pissed enough townies to get a wagon.
But in this game things are weird.
Tutuu is weird, game mechanics are weird, so the theory remains just a theory.
Tutuu with a wagon is spicy anyway, I don't remember a wagon on town!tutuu so early
Sometimes it is a wolf in a 4 people early wagon, but that wasn't the only ome iirc. At least a wolf or sin should have a vote at that momentDubz wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:41 am Perhaps playing a multiball game where I don't even have meta to fall back on for anyone was a mistake
Anyway
@Michelle do you still feel like non-village would have capitalized on the opportunity for an early tutuu wagon?
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 2:07 pmIdk.
There's a theory that the wolves would help in making an early wagon to show activity, or a wolf pissed enough townies to get a wagon.
But in this game things are weird.
Tutuu is weird, game mechanics are weird, so the theory remains just a theory.
Tutuu with a wagon is spicy anyway, I don't remember a wagon on town!tutuu so early
Yeah I understand the phone struggle. I'm looking at the VCs as I go through your ISO so maybe I'll find something interesting.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:48 amSometimes it is a wolf in a 4 people early wagon, but that wasn't the only ome iirc. At least a wolf or sin should have a vote at that momentDubz wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:41 am Perhaps playing a multiball game where I don't even have meta to fall back on for anyone was a mistake
Anyway
@Michelle do you still feel like non-village would have capitalized on the opportunity for an early tutuu wagon?
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 2:07 pmIdk.
There's a theory that the wolves would help in making an early wagon to show activity, or a wolf pissed enough townies to get a wagon.
But in this game things are weird.
Tutuu is weird, game mechanics are weird, so the theory remains just a theory.
Tutuu with a wagon is spicy anyway, I don't remember a wagon on town!tutuu so early
Unfortunately i am on phone and digging in my spoilered VCs is hard now, and to understand the gamestate of D1 better, we need more flips.
I had a tinfoil theory that Nanook thought Sean redchecked him instead of clearing someone and that's why he died. I also wonder if Sean even had a clear at all or if he was just reaction testing.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:36 amNanook is tunneling me as town when I low post because he is convinced I can't high post as scum so there's no other explanation for me to low postThunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:28 amCan you explain on Nanook? It's pretty hard for me to read him partly because I think his reaction posts at EoD2 were exaggerated regardless of his alignment.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:20 am This is for myself, a kind of reads list, but in the poll order
Dennis - outed scum
DrWilgy - low impact, maybe a sin, if not please play @DrWilgy
Dubz - busy IRL, relaxed tone, idk
Epignosis - i liked the analysis of the setup but that's not really AI.
falcon45ca - good tone, low impact, in the upper part of the null
jackofhearts2005 - time will tell, maybe town, not on the chopping block but he should show his towny soul if that’s his alignment
Macdougall - tinfoilable unfortunately. Not today.
Matahari - not very towny, not really scummy. I didn't notice agenda, so I will put her also above null.
Michelle -
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - suspicious
RondoDimBuckle - self confidemt, making a reactionary play, RTs, meh. Idk, hopefully town
Roxy - towny
S~V~S - looked like she is solving but i don't get the Poe except Nook, please explain @S~V~S
Thunal33 - my top town previous days, gives me paranoia for her fear of dying yday, but still town.
I didn't notice a read on me in this game. We were itt in the same time, but he didn't try to talk to me.
That's very weak per se, but I started to add micro elements to it, like the post when he told Mac he has to die because he tunneled/ was wrong on Porscha. In the best case Mac should be voted as wolf/sin not because he was wrong. There are more for sure but I have just this one in memory.
Also it's the fact Sean just started to say he suspects Nook when he died. That's wifom, but we should talk about it
I never saw this so in case you still care about the answer - it depends on how good of a read rate they each have on you, but I've found digging into diametrically opposed reads on the same player to be fruitful before, particularly if the players involved are generally decent at reading the subject. I wanted more detail on each of their perspectives.
The problem is we don't even know if John Doe is uninformed. He could be able to genuinely solve for the sins who aren't mafia aligned.Dubz wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:14 pm Michelle's push back at Mac early d2 reads extremely towny to me so there's that.
I suspect I'm going to end up with too many town reads because of how easy it would be for uninformed purple dudes to slip into town mindset. But maybe that'll help me find John Doe? Idk.
Yeah I'm just kinda running with the hope that there is some informed faction at this point, even if it's very small. Either that JD knows all the sins or has recruited so knows like... one?Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:21 pmThe problem is we don't even know if John Doe is uninformed. He could be able to genuinely solve for the sins who aren't mafia aligned.Dubz wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:14 pm Michelle's push back at Mac early d2 reads extremely towny to me so there's that.
I suspect I'm going to end up with too many town reads because of how easy it would be for uninformed purple dudes to slip into town mindset. But maybe that'll help me find John Doe? Idk.
His claim.
Without even going into the "John Doe can switch roles" theory, which I don't believe in but I also haven't seen this movie and the JD role has secrets so I'm not ruling it out entirely.Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:58 amYeah, I felt good with a mafia flip since I love interaction analysis and looking at spew but it's not as straightforward as I wanted it to be. I'm less confident pyxxy actually knew John Doe and if he did there's nothing I found that points to a specific John Doe. I feel a bit burnt out now.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:47 amTbf, we essentially outted two wolfs in the same day but the wolves don’t have tmi. It’s hard to wim at forgone conclusions.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:45 am Tbh I am feeling no town wim. Completely forgot about this game too lol.
I'd be lying if I said I didn't find this post intriguingMatahari wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:32 pm I have questions. Bear in mind, that I’m an ancient and come from the school of looking for evidence, as solving, rather than just throwing out suspicions willynilly and be accepted as town because of that.
@Epignosis you suggested the first night kill may have been redirection. I’m not sure how you arrived at that, or if it was just a suggestion, like a possibility in a role madness game. Can you clear that up?
@MacDougall I don’t know where to start. I tend to believe you are JD. After outing yourself, it’s logical that JD would want you gone, but you weren’t nk’d. When Seanzie said he was going to check you, you were trying very hard to change his mind. Then Seanzie dies.
Maybe you’re being framed idk. John Doe is supposed to gain mafia partners, but maybe John Doe is supposed to kill the sins, just like in the movie. He’s a lone serial killer who believes he is smarter than everyone else, so I could see that happening. When you said that you tracked Kate, maybe you ‘stalked’ Kate. In other words, maybe you’re just claiming to be a town tracker, but you’re an SK who stalks on odd nights. Idk. Or maybe JD is not supposed to kill the sins, and when you said you tracked Kate to Dennis, you didn’t think about someone else popping up with more info, like Seanzie did, so you had to sacrifice a potential partner.
Or maybe I just don’t trust players who lead the thread, thinking of Golden in the anniversary game here as a great example. I’m trying to be rid of preconceived inclinations, and trying to balance circumstantial evidence with a lot of maybes. It’s overwhelming in role madness games to try and feel sure of anything. But for now, I can’t help feeling you’re the big bad.
Explain the Poe plsJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:16 pm 8 vs 6 (ish)
Jack
Mac
Rondo
Thunal
Roxy
Falcon
Dubz
Mata
SVS
Epi
Michelle
Wilgy
Nook - mac says give him another chance
Dennis - mechanically outted
The best question itgDubz wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:13 pmI'd be lying if I said I didn't find this post intriguingMatahari wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:32 pm I have questions. Bear in mind, that I’m an ancient and come from the school of looking for evidence, as solving, rather than just throwing out suspicions willynilly and be accepted as town because of that.
@Epignosis you suggested the first night kill may have been redirection. I’m not sure how you arrived at that, or if it was just a suggestion, like a possibility in a role madness game. Can you clear that up?
@MacDougall I don’t know where to start. I tend to believe you are JD. After outing yourself, it’s logical that JD would want you gone, but you weren’t nk’d. When Seanzie said he was going to check you, you were trying very hard to change his mind. Then Seanzie dies.
Maybe you’re being framed idk. John Doe is supposed to gain mafia partners, but maybe John Doe is supposed to kill the sins, just like in the movie. He’s a lone serial killer who believes he is smarter than everyone else, so I could see that happening. When you said that you tracked Kate, maybe you ‘stalked’ Kate. In other words, maybe you’re just claiming to be a town tracker, but you’re an SK who stalks on odd nights. Idk. Or maybe JD is not supposed to kill the sins, and when you said you tracked Kate to Dennis, you didn’t think about someone else popping up with more info, like Seanzie did, so you had to sacrifice a potential partner.
Or maybe I just don’t trust players who lead the thread, thinking of Golden in the anniversary game here as a great example. I’m trying to be rid of preconceived inclinations, and trying to balance circumstantial evidence with a lot of maybes. It’s overwhelming in role madness games to try and feel sure of anything. But for now, I can’t help feeling you’re the big bad.
@pretty much anyone, what was the sequence of events with the Kate/Dennis outting? Did Mac bring up the tracking before or after Sean outted Kate?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:39 amI meant what I saidMichelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:30 amRoxy linked the explanation to that word, i would like you to reformulate.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:15 pmI am very queefed by Rondo.Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:55 amthere's no way is a hero shotRondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:45 am Mother fuckers I knew that something was off. I check thread and one of you asses have killed Seanzie. If it was a hero shot you had better claim soon or I'm just going to murder you regardless of when you claim for such a bad shot. Otherwise if you're a sin you done fucked up
I also have something to say about Rondo after
Kate took credit for that during the elim phase iirc.
I do hope you are wrong.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:33 amI mean its the only thing that makes sense and with that in mind Mac is probably dead because he has been forced to be unable to vote for Seanzie
Do you believe Michelle is bad? I have felt good about her after D 1.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:42 amGot it, bad.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:41 amEnder would know my alignament by now, he don't have to ask.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:36 am Michelle if Ender was here and I was Ender would you tell me if you were bad?
actually this is a pretty good theory.MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:50 am Maybe Seanzie was tunneling me because he was told to vote me the same way I was told to vote him.
Maybe this agent of chaos decided to turn us against one another.
Just a theory. Don't get mad at me Epi.
it will accomplish a reaction like the one you gave here.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:51 amI don't trust silly tests like these, idk what do you think you will accomplishRondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:42 amGot it, bad.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:41 amEnder would know my alignament by now, he don't have to ask.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:36 am Michelle if Ender was here and I was Ender would you tell me if you were bad?
I get you but what if the note required Seanzie to be believable? Like make a case/tinfoil and vote accordingly.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:53 amI doubt town Sean would need to voice a tinfoil to cast a vote. Just sayingMacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:50 am Maybe Seanzie was tunneling me because he was told to vote me the same way I was told to vote him.
Maybe this agent of chaos decided to turn us against one another.
Just a theory. Don't get mad at me Epi.
nah we need discussion makes baddies uncomfortable.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:54 amMy kingdom for a hammerMacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:54 am 48 hours of my life just to get the guy who was outed yesterday. Such pain. Where you at town day vig.
A thought. The fact Pyxxy died and Dennis didn't makes it fairly likely that town aren't the reason Pyxxy is dead? Like if it was a straight town vig, Dennis would be dead not Pyxxy?
conspiracy time:MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 2:02 am I know Epi said that there's a chance Dennis is John Doe but like ... as if? He's been belly up for two days, he isn't gonna be John Doe and just give up. He might have BEEN John Doe but he sure as hell isn't now.
I'm not a sin silly, and I am playing. Just not in a way that's constructive at all.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:20 am This is for myself, a kind of reads list, but in the poll order
Dennis - outed scum
DrWilgy - low impact, maybe a sin, if not please play @DrWilgy
Dubz - busy IRL, relaxed tone, idk
Epignosis - i liked the analysis of the setup but that's not really AI.
falcon45ca - good tone, low impact, in the upper part of the null
jackofhearts2005 - time will tell, maybe town, not on the chopping block but he should show his towny soul if that’s his alignment
Macdougall - tinfoilable unfortunately. Not today.
Matahari - not very towny, not really scummy. I didn't notice agenda, so I will put her also above null.
Michelle -
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - suspicious
RondoDimBuckle - self confidemt, making a reactionary play, RTs, meh. Idk, hopefully town
Roxy - towny
S~V~S - looked like she is solving but i don't get the Poe except Nook, please explain @S~V~S
Thunal33 - my top town previous days, gives me paranoia for her fear of dying yday, but still town.
To not after sharing data:Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 9:05 pmIf I had to order the list it would probably be
Nook
Falcon
Wilgy
Jack
Thun
In order of most likely baddie to least likely baddie.
I share this as I don't think anyone would counter claim me on being in BTSC with Seanzie and Seanzie wouldn't remove me from the PoE without good reason. If less energy is wasted assessing me, I'd say this is a net positive for the town.
but yet you have had some wim this day it is just dragging bc people are not posting bc of the "free" easy elim. It is fucking boring though so I do agree but we need to keep hashing this shit out so we all know where we are going in the next day's phase.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:45 am Tbh I am feeling no town wim. Completely forgot about this game too lol.
me too.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:50 am Gah, I hope I find a wolf with my cop check tonight
They were in my poe on D 1 and I questioned them everyday bc they felt off. It was early tho. I was focused on Dennis D 1 and Wigly to a lesser extent. Still am lolThunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:53 amI think so. afaik I also don't see anyone who really scumread pyxxy. He was in PoEs, but I don't think anyone really took a hard stance against him. I feel like either he did role swap with John Doe or there could be redirection in play.MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:54 am 48 hours of my life just to get the guy who was outed yesterday. Such pain. Where you at town day vig.
A thought. The fact Pyxxy died and Dennis didn't makes it fairly likely that town aren't the reason Pyxxy is dead? Like if it was a straight town vig, Dennis would be dead not Pyxxy?
tbf: The last day they did make a point of throwing Nook in their poe at 3:37 and then taking right out of the poe at 3:50.Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:58 amYeah, I felt good with a mafia flip since I love interaction analysis and looking at spew but it's not as straightforward as I wanted it to be. I'm less confident pyxxy actually knew John Doe and if he did there's nothing I found that points to a specific John Doe. I feel a bit burnt out now.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:47 amTbf, we essentially outted two wolfs in the same day but the wolves don’t have tmi. It’s hard to wim at forgone conclusions.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:45 am Tbh I am feeling no town wim. Completely forgot about this game too lol.
pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 4:30 amI think doom could probably do things that we'll never know about*.
*Unless we chop a virtue**/a virtue info dumps which would be inadvisable at this point. Not sure if that might even count as role claiming.
**oh actually also if we chop Sloth, since it's the opposite of Diligence, maybe that role explanation would at least be a clue towards what Doom could do. really not sure it super matters though
I quoted this post because I wondered if (conjectures follow -->) Dubz is the lone scum but scum gets to know who the sins are and maybe can recruit them or something idk
but then Dubz didn't really interact with Dennis is a substantive/pockety way so, eh