Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [GAME OVER - TOWN WIN]

There's so few left, but we could still stand to lose one.

Poll ended at Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:00 pm

dyachei
0
No votes
ilario
0
No votes
Lilypetal
0
No votes
Millium
5
36%
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
0
No votes
peepeepoopoo (host/dead/spec)
9
64%
 
Total votes: 14
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4051

Post by Tilgarial »

Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:01 pm
Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:58 pm
Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:50 pm also, I had a sudden bout of regret for not doing it when I thought day was ending soon, so lets do it!

premise:
mafia chose to take away your choice to vote me.
this is likely for reasons people have said and that I think sound reasonable!
you don't like that. I don't like that either.
so let's do a little thing:
I wanna make myself a focus for the day by force!

let's divide thread into two sides.
Team Let's-Ml-Tilga-D3
and Team Let's-Not-Do-That

fun thing?
you can't exe me today anyways, so it doesn't matter too much which side you choose.
this is about reasoning & making yourself readable, and about not letting mafia choose what town does or doesn't get to do.

so to that effect, what I want from you is:

- Pick a side. either is fine.

- Explain why you picked the side you did. am I sus, why? am I not sus enough, why? am I town, why?

- Don't forget that you'll have to vote somebody out in 28 hours. you're welcome to use this and people's reasoning for that, but keep in mind it's not about which side people chose, it's about the reasoning they provide. town can be wrong, and mafia can be right!

- let's have fun. I'll be honest, I kinda enjoy this situation, even though this is most likely a super ego play right here. And regardless of what side you're on, we're currently playing a game together, so I hope you all are having fun too!
@Alison
@Belzy
@Chamomile
@dyachei
@EnderWiggin
@ilario
@Lilypetal
@MacDougall
@Millium
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@Neon
@Porscha
@RondoDimBuckle
@santygrass
@Seanzie

ask me questions, chopose a side!
I'll be doing my best to get answers to any questions you have for me, even if I do not currently have them, so ask away. ask what you need to make your choice, ask what you want to know.
I firmly believe this is a pro-town move, even if I end up being the D3 exe.
Thank you for participating!
No.
Why
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4052

Post by Seanzie »

You are literally the least important person to spend energy solving right now.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4053

Post by Tilgarial »

Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:02 pm You are literally the least important person to spend energy solving right now.
it's not about solving me. it's about solving everybody else
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4054

Post by Seanzie »

Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:03 pm
Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:02 pm You are literally the least important person to spend energy solving right now.
it's not about solving me. it's about solving everybody else
no.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4055

Post by Tilgarial »

Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:04 pm
Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:03 pm
Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:02 pm You are literally the least important person to spend energy solving right now.
it's not about solving me. it's about solving everybody else
no.
if I'm mafia, this would mean forcing my wolf buddies to choose a side and be accounted for
if I'm town, this means wolves need to come up with convincing reasoning either way they choose, and I don't believe they expected to need to be doing that today if me being unvotable is really a power of theirs
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4056

Post by Seanzie »

Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:08 pm
Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:04 pm
Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:03 pm
Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:02 pm You are literally the least important person to spend energy solving right now.
it's not about solving me. it's about solving everybody else
no.
if I'm mafia, this would mean forcing my wolf buddies to choose a side and be accounted for
if I'm town, this means wolves need to come up with convincing reasoning either way they choose, and I don't believe they expected to need to be doing that today if me being unvotable is really a power of theirs
All fine and dandy, but people don't have unlimited time/solving energy. Spending it casing you is bad IMO. Others can do what they want, but I think this is an anti-town suggestion you've offered and I for one will not partake.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4057

Post by Alison »

Oh I was going to drop my big legacy post too. I guess I'll drop it anyway since it represents the sum of my solving work thus far.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4058

Post by Tilgarial »

Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:16 pm
Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:08 pm
Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:04 pm
Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:03 pm
Seanzie wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:02 pm You are literally the least important person to spend energy solving right now.
it's not about solving me. it's about solving everybody else
no.
if I'm mafia, this would mean forcing my wolf buddies to choose a side and be accounted for
if I'm town, this means wolves need to come up with convincing reasoning either way they choose, and I don't believe they expected to need to be doing that today if me being unvotable is really a power of theirs
All fine and dandy, but people don't have unlimited time/solving energy. Spending it casing you is bad IMO. Others can do what they want, but I think this is an anti-town suggestion you've offered and I for one will not partake.
it's literally about focusing things
if everybody looks at me and gives their perspective, you can look at what everybody else is saying on the exact same topic with full insight on what they're talking about and should be more able to evaluate how reasonable their approach is
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4059

Post by dyachei »

tilg I'll be honest I'm undecided on what you are. but I think pushing you for the not being to vote mechanic is bad
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4060

Post by Tilgarial »

dyachei wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:26 pm tilg I'll be honest I'm undecided on what you are. but I think pushing you for the not being to vote mechanic is bad
anything I did that makes you lean either way?
maybe something specific that makes it hard for you?
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4061

Post by Tilgarial »

Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:31 pm
dyachei wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:26 pm tilg I'll be honest I'm undecided on what you are. but I think pushing you for the not being to vote mechanic is bad
anything I did that makes you lean either way?
maybe something specific that makes it hard for you?
something I could tell you about that'd make it easier?
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4062

Post by Alison »

So I wrote this with the viewpoint that it would be read after I flip green when I thought EOD was in 2 hours and I was locked in as the exe. If you currently don't believe I'll flip green then that's fine, you can save this for if/when I get voted off and read it then. Or treat it as a hypothetical. Up to you.

I have an extremely good track record at obtaining multiple pelts when I am voted off because I am good at identifying the people on my wagon who are there for genuine reasons and the people who are mafia. So you should sheep me. If you don't sheep me then I'm not responsible for the consequences.

The people on my wagon are as follows: EnderWiggin, Chamomile, santygrass, Neon, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

It is absolutely guaranteed that there are 2+ mafia on this list. I am a claimed PR and the arguments against me are bad but the players voting me aren't trolls which means that there is malicious intent here.

Santygrass is almost certainly one of them as he is the architect of most of the bad arguments and has been attacking me in bad faith for the entire game. I have too much respect for his play to consider the possibility that he might be wrong town and he wasn't even this bad in Spiritfarer so I have no choice but to deduce that he is pretending to be Spiritfarer Santy in order to justify his openwolfing.

EnderWiggin has done absolutely nothing that is townie but Aro shielded him so I guess he can live for a while more. But he has a pretty bad track record reads wise so I'd say he's on thin ice and should be made to do townie things.

Chamomile is playing exactly as I would expect a 3P to play. Assuming they are not 3P my first instinct would be that they are town and not mafia because of the lack of self preservation instinct along with the fact that they are setting up to park on me and do nothing but haven't done so. I don't really understand what their agenda is if they are mafia which suggests they don't have a mafia agenda.

I'll sheep Illario on Neon and say she is mafia especially since she has weird mech question marks surrounding her.

Nanook is an interesting case. Overall I think he has actually been playing like town Nanook but it hasn't escaped my notice that he is playing in a very scum sided way (roleblocking me D1 and vote parking me D2 with no explanation given). There are reasons and justifications and it's why I haven't gone after him harder. My honest suggestion is to pick off the obvious mafia (outlined above) first and then policy Nanook for scumsiding if he's still alive after that. If he has a way to clear himself he would have used it by then. Or be killed for it.

-

Next we will examine the rest of the game. Tilgarial and Porscha are top suspects for reasons I have already explained. Lilypetal and Macdougall have both been playing obscenely closely to their town meta and are either snowing me or just town. I will presume the latter since I have seen no evidence they are snowing me. Macdougall is shielding Belzy so let's assume he's right about her.

Illario is perhaps the most likely to be actually snowing me but I find it hard to disagree with his reads and solve. That is to say either he is town or I am inting. If you follow this legacy and it becomes clear that I am not inting then you can probably give Illario the thumbs up until endgame. dyachei has been playing in a mostly unobjectionable way. I actually think there is a chance they are wolf skating by but the correct way to deal with this possibility is simply to catch their teammates and follow the trail back to them. This averts the possibility that they are simply town because it is very unlikely that they will be a prime target for being falsely spewed as mafia partners with a wolf. So if you find the trail you know it's real, if you don't then you can let it rest for a bit. Let's hope that dyachei's partners aren't good at anti spew if they are maf.

Rondo and Millium are two players that I policy every game so perhaps someone who is not me will have a more objective eye on what to do with them. I'll be lazy and make them someone else's problem to sort.

Seanzie is obscenely town. I am just going to take him as lock town, if he is town then I am right. If he is wolf then I don't mind getting snowed and will update my read on him in the future to avoid it happening again. Let's see how that goes.

-

I am pretty confident that following this blueprint will take you at least 80-90% of the way to winning the game if not 100% of the way. I am content if I die today because I believe that enough mafia will have outed themselves in order to push my death that we can win the game off that. The important thing is to not let them go because they have good tone or whatever nonsense and to simply hold the people who wrongfully killed me accountable. Town cannot lose if we play in a manner to maximize accountability and good order.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4063

Post by Alison »

If someone wants a concise version of the above that they can quote without making a giant wall:

Strong mafia are Santy, Neon, Tilgarial, Porscha.
Towncore is Mac, Lily, Seanzie, Illario*

*Illario falls out of towncore if flips show that I am wrong about too many reads.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4064

Post by dyachei »

Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:31 pm
dyachei wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:26 pm tilg I'll be honest I'm undecided on what you are. but I think pushing you for the not being to vote mechanic is bad
anything I did that makes you lean either way?
maybe something specific that makes it hard for you?
I think you're playing in a way that's harder to take fault with or call good solving. feels very middle of the road and I dont have meta with you to look at

what do you think of your play this game?
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4065

Post by Alison »

Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:50 pm also, I had a sudden bout of regret for not doing it when I thought day was ending soon, so lets do it!

premise:
mafia chose to take away your choice to vote me.
this is likely for reasons people have said and that I think sound reasonable!
you don't like that. I don't like that either.
so let's do a little thing:
I wanna make myself a focus for the day by force!

let's divide thread into two sides.
Team Let's-Ml-Tilg-D3
and Team Let's-Not-Do-That

fun thing?
you can't exe me today anyways, so it doesn't matter too much which side you choose.
this is about reasoning & making yourself readable, and about not letting mafia choose what town does or doesn't get to do.

so to that effect, what I want from you is:

- Pick a side. either is fine.

- Explain why you picked the side you did. am I sus, why? am I not sus enough, why? am I town, why?

- Don't forget that you'll have to vote somebody out in 28 hours. you're welcome to use this and people's reasoning for that, but keep in mind it's not about which side people chose, it's about the reasoning they provide. town can be wrong, and mafia can be right!

- let's have fun. I'll be honest, I kinda enjoy this situation, even though this is most likely a super ego play right here. And regardless of what side you're on, we're currently playing a game together, so I hope you all are having fun too!
I think you are mafia and you or a partner used the unvoteable power on you to protect you from death today. The most obvious explanation is usually the correct one. People are overthinking it.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4066

Post by dyachei »

Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:36 pm So I wrote this with the viewpoint that it would be read after I flip green when I thought EOD was in 2 hours and I was locked in as the exe. If you currently don't believe I'll flip green then that's fine, you can save this for if/when I get voted off and read it then. Or treat it as a hypothetical. Up to you.

I have an extremely good track record at obtaining multiple pelts when I am voted off because I am good at identifying the people on my wagon who are there for genuine reasons and the people who are mafia. So you should sheep me. If you don't sheep me then I'm not responsible for the consequences.

The people on my wagon are as follows: EnderWiggin, Chamomile, santygrass, Neon, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

It is absolutely guaranteed that there are 2+ mafia on this list. I am a claimed PR and the arguments against me are bad but the players voting me aren't trolls which means that there is malicious intent here.

Santygrass is almost certainly one of them as he is the architect of most of the bad arguments and has been attacking me in bad faith for the entire game. I have too much respect for his play to consider the possibility that he might be wrong town and he wasn't even this bad in Spiritfarer so I have no choice but to deduce that he is pretending to be Spiritfarer Santy in order to justify his openwolfing.

EnderWiggin has done absolutely nothing that is townie but Aro shielded him so I guess he can live for a while more. But he has a pretty bad track record reads wise so I'd say he's on thin ice and should be made to do townie things.

Chamomile is playing exactly as I would expect a 3P to play. Assuming they are not 3P my first instinct would be that they are town and not mafia because of the lack of self preservation instinct along with the fact that they are setting up to park on me and do nothing but haven't done so. I don't really understand what their agenda is if they are mafia which suggests they don't have a mafia agenda.

I'll sheep Illario on Neon and say she is mafia especially since she has weird mech question marks surrounding her.

Nanook is an interesting case. Overall I think he has actually been playing like town Nanook but it hasn't escaped my notice that he is playing in a very scum sided way (roleblocking me D1 and vote parking me D2 with no explanation given). There are reasons and justifications and it's why I haven't gone after him harder. My honest suggestion is to pick off the obvious mafia (outlined above) first and then policy Nanook for scumsiding if he's still alive after that. If he has a way to clear himself he would have used it by then. Or be killed for it.

-

Next we will examine the rest of the game. Tilgarial and Porscha are top suspects for reasons I have already explained. Lilypetal and Macdougall have both been playing obscenely closely to their town meta and are either snowing me or just town. I will presume the latter since I have seen no evidence they are snowing me. Macdougall is shielding Belzy so let's assume he's right about her.

Illario is perhaps the most likely to be actually snowing me but I find it hard to disagree with his reads and solve. That is to say either he is town or I am inting. If you follow this legacy and it becomes clear that I am not inting then you can probably give Illario the thumbs up until endgame. dyachei has been playing in a mostly unobjectionable way. I actually think there is a chance they are wolf skating by but the correct way to deal with this possibility is simply to catch their teammates and follow the trail back to them. This averts the possibility that they are simply town because it is very unlikely that they will be a prime target for being falsely spewed as mafia partners with a wolf. So if you find the trail you know it's real, if you don't then you can let it rest for a bit. Let's hope that dyachei's partners aren't good at anti spew if they are maf.

Rondo and Millium are two players that I policy every game so perhaps someone who is not me will have a more objective eye on what to do with them. I'll be lazy and make them someone else's problem to sort.

Seanzie is obscenely town. I am just going to take him as lock town, if he is town then I am right. If he is wolf then I don't mind getting snowed and will update my read on him in the future to avoid it happening again. Let's see how that goes.

-

I am pretty confident that following this blueprint will take you at least 80-90% of the way to winning the game if not 100% of the way. I am content if I die today because I believe that enough mafia will have outed themselves in order to push my death that we can win the game off that. The important thing is to not let them go because they have good tone or whatever nonsense and to simply hold the people who wrongfully killed me accountable. Town cannot lose if we play in a manner to maximize accountability and good order.
the read on me feels like a copout and I expect better from you
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4067

Post by Alison »

dyachei wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:39 pm
Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:31 pm
dyachei wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:26 pm tilg I'll be honest I'm undecided on what you are. but I think pushing you for the not being to vote mechanic is bad
anything I did that makes you lean either way?
maybe something specific that makes it hard for you?
I think you're playing in a way that's harder to take fault with or call good solving. feels very middle of the road and I dont have meta with you to look at

what do you think of your play this game?
This is a good post
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4068

Post by Alison »

dyachei wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:40 pm the read on me feels like a copout and I expect better from you
Let me rephrase it.

I think you are townie. However you are not so obscenely townie that I can comfortably put you in my town core list. Thus the conundrum: how do we respect your townieness and treat you as town whilst avoiding the possibility that you are snowing us?

Answer: treat you as town and trust that you will be exposed by associatives with flipped wolves over time.

Thus I am telling the rest of the game to treat you as town for now and let future events make your alignment more clear. I think that is a very fair read of you.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4069

Post by Alison »

Oh yeah and if we don't have a single pelt by D4 it is absolutely and completely guaranteed that there is a mafia between Mac and Illario. This is especially true if Tilgarial is town since he has been their shared punching bag.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4070

Post by Alison »

Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:47 pm Oh yeah and if we don't have a single pelt by D4 it is absolutely and completely guaranteed that there is a mafia between Mac and Illario. This is especially true if Tilgarial is town since he has been their shared punching bag.
When I say "mafia between" I don't mean exactly one, they could both be mafia together. Their interactions have not ruled out W/W. But that only applies if you wake up on D4 and realize the game has gone to shit. Until then you can trust them especially if they produce pelts (like a Tilgarial red flip).
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4071

Post by Tilgarial »

dyachei wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:39 pm
Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:31 pm
dyachei wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:26 pm tilg I'll be honest I'm undecided on what you are. but I think pushing you for the not being to vote mechanic is bad
anything I did that makes you lean either way?
maybe something specific that makes it hard for you?
I think you're playing in a way that's harder to take fault with or call good solving. feels very middle of the road and I dont have meta with you to look at

what do you think of your play this game?
I'm not doing great this game, in all honesty
I'm usually not great with bigger playerlists/lots of posts, and you're kinda right that I'm having trouble forming reads, I think, though I'm unsure why exactly. it's not usually a problem I have as either alignment, even if I may take my time in bigger games
I'm also not usually a common suspect/somebody mafia dares try to ml, and Ig that boils down to "skill issue" for/from me, if I may borrow that from santy
the only real mistake I'm currently aware of in my gameplay is dropping my townread on aro, though. or maybe not communicating enough with him at EOD? well. whatever that situation was

but me being "middle of the road" as you call it, isn't too unusual, I think? not too sure, but I'm never really at the forefront of things and I don't think I'm ever lhf material for either alignment
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4072

Post by Tilgarial »

Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:47 pm Oh yeah and if we don't have a single pelt by D4 it is absolutely and completely guaranteed that there is a mafia between Mac and Illario. This is especially true if Tilgarial is town since he has been their shared punching bag.
uh.
can you elaborate on this?
I get that illario has been sussing me today, but I don't get where mac treated me as a punchingbag at all, and even illario from what I saw seemed more like wrong town than wolf agenda pushing
I'm also townreading both rn, so this is mildly concerning
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4073

Post by Alison »

I'm townreading both too.

I just think it's hard to visualize a world where Mac and Illario are both town and we don't get a wolf by D4.

It can happen (see finale) if they self destruct hard enough but I don't see evidence of that happening this game.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4074

Post by santygrass »

K, I think the 'legacy' post from Alison its just outing at this point. I a 100% sure they are a hit
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4075

Post by santygrass »

@MacDougall can you tell Alison that their push on me is atrocious, that you also townread me and that they should look at other slots? I want mainly to see if Alison chooses to further out themselves or find another slot to spew
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4076

Post by Alison »

Santy feels very boxed in.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4077

Post by Alison »

santygrass wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:35 pm @MacDougall can you tell Alison that their push on me is atrocious, that you also townread me and that they should look at other slots? I want mainly to see if Alison chooses to further out themselves or find another slot to spew
Ah yes when I am 100% sure someone is scum and is scumreading me because of their nefarious agenda to get me killed, the first thing I do is ping another player to convince them to back off me. This is because I crave being townread by outed wolves, and care about their opinion very much and am totally not frightened of the possibility that I might end up getting turbo'd D3 because of their legacy.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4078

Post by santygrass »

Considering that actually you are the only player scumreading me and majority of other slots are townreading me, I am feeling super boxed yes
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4079

Post by Tilgarial »

Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:27 pm I'm townreading both too.

I just think it's hard to visualize a world where Mac and Illario are both town and we don't get a wolf by D4.

It can happen (see finale) if they self destruct hard enough but I don't see evidence of that happening this game.
okay. I know you're sussing me here, but if you're town, please entertain for a bit the idea that I am, too. I assume you did that when you made that post, because otherwise it doesn't make much sense.

now, if I think of you as town, your wagon is currently the highest, so there is a fair chance you'll be the exe today.
there's a good deal of pressure on me for tomorrow already from different directions, and the furthest opinion opposite that that I'm aware of is fairly neutral. so yes, I've been operating under the assumption that I will be very likely the exe on D3.

what this means in a world of both you and me being town, is that there is a fairly obvious road towards a D4 with no pelts, and it is currently the one we are going down.

do you see why your sudden idea is concerning to me?
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4080

Post by Alison »

I have faith that thie player list is smart enough to follow my last wishes if I die which seems like the most likely outcome of today. :D
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4081

Post by santygrass »

My objective is not to you to get back off of me, its clear in my post. I want to see where would you push . /Shrug
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4082

Post by Alison »

Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:38 pm
Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:27 pm I'm townreading both too.

I just think it's hard to visualize a world where Mac and Illario are both town and we don't get a wolf by D4.

It can happen (see finale) if they self destruct hard enough but I don't see evidence of that happening this game.
okay. I know you're sussing me here, but if you're town, please entertain for a bit the idea that I am, too. I assume you did that when you made that post, because otherwise it doesn't make much sense.

now, if I think of you as town, your wagon is currently the highest, so there is a fair chance you'll be the exe today.
there's a good deal of pressure on me for tomorrow already from different directions, and the furthest opinion opposite that that I'm aware of is fairly neutral. so yes, I've been operating under the assumption that I will be very likely the exe on D3.

what this means in a world of both you and me being town, is that there is a fairly obvious road towards a D4 with no pelts, and it is currently the one we are going down.

do you see why your sudden idea is concerning to me?
If you're town the best thing to do is to vote Santy off. Since there's no way that Santy and you are both town, so...
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4083

Post by Alison »

santygrass wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:38 pm My objective is not to you to get back off of me, its clear in my post. I want to see where would you push . /Shrug
Yeah, it's hard to know where I'd push on other than you. If only there was a big post outlining detailed reads on every player in the game and how I feel about them.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4084

Post by santygrass »

If you are town then you will to likely analyze how you play the game because your legacy well... It is clearly wolf motivated /shrug .

Wont go into detail rn but I see dunk material there on your case
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4085

Post by santygrass »

Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:40 pm
santygrass wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:38 pm My objective is not to you to get back off of me, its clear in my post. I want to see where would you push . /Shrug
Yeah, it's hard to know where I'd push on other than you. If only there was a big post outlining detailed reads on every player in the game and how I feel about them.
You also sussed Porscha, but didnt push there in the slightlest
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4086

Post by Alison »

santygrass wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:40 pm If you are town then you will to likely analyze how you play the game because your legacy well... It is clearly wolf motivated /shrug .

Wont go into detail rn but I see dunk material there on your case
I invite you to dunk on me. You are only digging your grave further by doing so.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4087

Post by Tilgarial »

Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:39 pm
If you're town the best thing to do is to vote Santy off. Since there's no way that Santy and you are both town, so...
where does that dichotomy come from?
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4088

Post by Alison »

santygrass wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:40 pm
Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:40 pm
santygrass wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:38 pm My objective is not to you to get back off of me, its clear in my post. I want to see where would you push . /Shrug
Yeah, it's hard to know where I'd push on other than you. If only there was a big post outlining detailed reads on every player in the game and how I feel about them.
You also sussed Porscha, but didnt push there in the slightlest
This is a lie.

But it doesn't matter. The post is meant to be read after I flip green. I am going to sip martinis in DVC and enjoy watching you navigate D3 after that.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4089

Post by Alison »

Tilgarial wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:41 pm
Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:39 pm
If you're town the best thing to do is to vote Santy off. Since there's no way that Santy and you are both town, so...
where does that dichotomy come from?
The dichotomy comes from the fact that you and Santy are in my top scum reads and I believe I am correct enough that there should be at least one between you two.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4090

Post by EnderWiggin »

I got what I wanted out of pushing Alison.

I'm back to my regularly scheduled programming.

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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4091

Post by Alison »

Apparently Porscha is getting cop checked by Lily tonight so we should at least wait until D3.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4092

Post by MacDougall »

Alison what's your legacy?
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4093

Post by EnderWiggin »

Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:45 pm Apparently Porscha is getting cop checked by Lily tonight so we should at least wait until D3.
I thought it was a dayphase thing?

@Lilypetal tonight mech or today mech?
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4094

Post by dyachei »

MacDougall wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:47 pm Alison what's your legacy?
she had a post earlier with that I think
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4095

Post by Alison »

MacDougall wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:47 pm Alison what's your legacy?
Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:36 pm So I wrote this with the viewpoint that it would be read after I flip green when I thought EOD was in 2 hours and I was locked in as the exe. If you currently don't believe I'll flip green then that's fine, you can save this for if/when I get voted off and read it then. Or treat it as a hypothetical. Up to you.

I have an extremely good track record at obtaining multiple pelts when I am voted off because I am good at identifying the people on my wagon who are there for genuine reasons and the people who are mafia. So you should sheep me. If you don't sheep me then I'm not responsible for the consequences.

The people on my wagon are as follows: EnderWiggin, Chamomile, santygrass, Neon, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

It is absolutely guaranteed that there are 2+ mafia on this list. I am a claimed PR and the arguments against me are bad but the players voting me aren't trolls which means that there is malicious intent here.

Santygrass is almost certainly one of them as he is the architect of most of the bad arguments and has been attacking me in bad faith for the entire game. I have too much respect for his play to consider the possibility that he might be wrong town and he wasn't even this bad in Spiritfarer so I have no choice but to deduce that he is pretending to be Spiritfarer Santy in order to justify his openwolfing.

EnderWiggin has done absolutely nothing that is townie but Aro shielded him so I guess he can live for a while more. But he has a pretty bad track record reads wise so I'd say he's on thin ice and should be made to do townie things.

Chamomile is playing exactly as I would expect a 3P to play. Assuming they are not 3P my first instinct would be that they are town and not mafia because of the lack of self preservation instinct along with the fact that they are setting up to park on me and do nothing but haven't done so. I don't really understand what their agenda is if they are mafia which suggests they don't have a mafia agenda.

I'll sheep Illario on Neon and say she is mafia especially since she has weird mech question marks surrounding her.

Nanook is an interesting case. Overall I think he has actually been playing like town Nanook but it hasn't escaped my notice that he is playing in a very scum sided way (roleblocking me D1 and vote parking me D2 with no explanation given). There are reasons and justifications and it's why I haven't gone after him harder. My honest suggestion is to pick off the obvious mafia (outlined above) first and then policy Nanook for scumsiding if he's still alive after that. If he has a way to clear himself he would have used it by then. Or be killed for it.

-

Next we will examine the rest of the game. Tilgarial and Porscha are top suspects for reasons I have already explained. Lilypetal and Macdougall have both been playing obscenely closely to their town meta and are either snowing me or just town. I will presume the latter since I have seen no evidence they are snowing me. Macdougall is shielding Belzy so let's assume he's right about her.

Illario is perhaps the most likely to be actually snowing me but I find it hard to disagree with his reads and solve. That is to say either he is town or I am inting. If you follow this legacy and it becomes clear that I am not inting then you can probably give Illario the thumbs up until endgame. dyachei has been playing in a mostly unobjectionable way. I actually think there is a chance they are wolf skating by but the correct way to deal with this possibility is simply to catch their teammates and follow the trail back to them. This averts the possibility that they are simply town because it is very unlikely that they will be a prime target for being falsely spewed as mafia partners with a wolf. So if you find the trail you know it's real, if you don't then you can let it rest for a bit. Let's hope that dyachei's partners aren't good at anti spew if they are maf.

Rondo and Millium are two players that I policy every game so perhaps someone who is not me will have a more objective eye on what to do with them. I'll be lazy and make them someone else's problem to sort.

Seanzie is obscenely town. I am just going to take him as lock town, if he is town then I am right. If he is wolf then I don't mind getting snowed and will update my read on him in the future to avoid it happening again. Let's see how that goes.

-

I am pretty confident that following this blueprint will take you at least 80-90% of the way to winning the game if not 100% of the way. I am content if I die today because I believe that enough mafia will have outed themselves in order to push my death that we can win the game off that. The important thing is to not let them go because they have good tone or whatever nonsense and to simply hold the people who wrongfully killed me accountable. Town cannot lose if we play in a manner to maximize accountability and good order.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4096

Post by EnderWiggin »

Until Lily answers I'm going to pull what I call a pro-gamer move:

[VOTE: Santygrass] aubergine
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4097

Post by Alison »

EnderWiggin wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:48 pm
Alison wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:45 pm Apparently Porscha is getting cop checked by Lily tonight so we should at least wait until D3.
I thought it was a dayphase thing?

@Lilypetal tonight mech or today mech?
I have been pretty bad about keeping up with mech sorry. But there's definitely some way to resolve Porscha soon.

I still dunno how Neon's mech works. She softed a green check on me then I asked her to full claim and woke up to her voting me so idk what's going on there. Someone else figure it out.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4098

Post by Alison »

EnderWiggin wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:49 pm Until Lily answers I'm going to pull what I call a pro-gamer move:

[VOTE: Santygrass] aubergine
Wow, I said Ender should be made to do townie things in my legacy and he immediately does something townie! Good start.
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4099

Post by MacDougall »

how many ppl were voting Alison when Alison made the post?
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Re: Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [Day 2]

#4100

Post by MacDougall »

nvm misread
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