The Fall of Númenor - Game Over!

[Creature]

I realized Deli said that Kami wasn't out of her wolf range, so I suppose the reads list make sense though it's a bit weird to look at

Deli, I might have missed it but I'm interested in your read on Marmot! Would you mind explaining it some more?

Basically Marmot isn’t pinging me at all, they seem game solving and their reads list lacked agenda vibes. Maybe I’m biased because they had me at the top of their list and their avatar is cute— if I’m wrong that’s going to be my excuse and it can’t really be helped

Do people think this is partnered from Deli?

Feels like already excusing themself incase town finds out Marmot is wolf. Maybe I’m biased because they had me at the middle of their list and their avatar is cute— if I’m wrong that’s going to be my excuse and it can’t really be helped

[Esooa]

there's potential we can sleep tonight to avoid the n4 extra kill and give nanook another check/him die to confirm him.

I think that's probably good?

Otherwise I honestly think Nanook is just a wolf

[Syn]

there's potential we can sleep tonight to avoid the n4 extra kill and give nanook another check/him die to confirm him.

I think that's probably good?

Otherwise I honestly think Nanook is just a wolf

in this hypothetical, who would you suggest nanook check

[Esooa]

there's potential we can sleep tonight to avoid the n4 extra kill and give nanook another check/him die to confirm him.

I think that's probably good?

Otherwise I honestly think Nanook is just a wolf

in this hypothetical, who would you suggest nanook check

you or Mac

[Esooa]

that's mostly just to make it as hard for him to fake it as possible though lmao. If he were the real cop the best check is probably me just so it confirms the alignment of the other 2 but in that case if nanook is a wolf he just says oh well (one of Marmot/Creature) are wolves obviously and no one can really say nah?

Though him living through the night probably makes it a lot more likely he's wolf anyways

Idk, shrug. Myself, you or mac

[Syn]

sure i guess

i don't see a reason for the wolves to even try and shoot within the claims when they can just pop off wiml and maintain the status quo. Nanook having another check means nothing if you're all just going to trot out tomorrow going "lol he's lying" again

[Esooa]

sure i guess

i don't see a reason for the wolves to even try and shoot within the claims when they can just pop off wiml and maintain the status quo. Nanook having another check means nothing if you're all just going to trot out tomorrow going "lol he's lying" again

because if he's the real cop we get another check

Which is cool

And if he's fake it's easier to evaluate.

Plus, honestly, I want another 50 posts

[Kami]

can we vote mac LOL

[Syn]

7 v 3

sleep, 7 v 3
nk, 6 v 3
chop nanook because we're idiots, 5 v 3
nk, no vig, 4 v 3
lylo and actually no closer to an answer about who's mafia than we were when we started this

[Esooa]

okay cool syn how about we just kill u and we get one step closer because we see ur mafia with ur flip

[Kami]

[VOTE: Syn] aubergine
my sword is urs mlady

[Gavial]

[VOTE: Syn] aubergine
Still think we should resolve Nanook/Deli but I trust Esooa so I’ll trust their judgement.

[Esooa]

lmao don't trust me on voting Syn. Determine if you think we should sleep or not

[Syn]

okay cool syn how about we just kill u and we get one step closer because we see ur mafia with ur flip

that's fine, I already told Kami to make that happen

[Syn]

I like that the Nanook wagon has completely shifted to me

the worst part is that at least one of you is town

anyway I have like four posts left so you get to sabotage things for a full half phase without interruption, enjoy

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I mean they're an uncced jk claim its not great to kill them today lol

Unless you're gonna cc you should probably move

what if I were to tell you I don't believe the claim

I'd disagree with you until you provide a reason.

the reason is I think deli is lying

This isn't a guarantee, but HK gets really mad at people for lying about stuff as town. If he had mech info (I.E. would KNOW Deli is lying) I think he would say something different than "I think" Deli is lying

He also said, literally earlier in the phase, that if he were going to cc someone he wouldn't do it outright. So. Not compelling.

Creature probably mafia for the post cap complaints tbh

Heh

So, scum are pretty fucked

I'm the parity cop i have a difference check between Marmot and creature

HK's flip means there's also a difference check between esooa and deli


Dab

Wish we could've gotten Marmot over yesterday lol

This doesn't make sense

1st quote--nanook thinks Creature is mafia
3rd quote--nanook thinks Marmot is mafia

So why check two people you think are mafia to eachother? That's not the point of the role rly at all

I didn't think they were teamed, thats why I checked them--if they came back same id have two green checks, if they came back different I'd know one of them is mafia obviously.

Nanook suspects Creature D2
Nanook cops Creature N2
Nanook knows Creature's alignment is the opposite of whatever Marmot's alignment is, since Nanook checked Marmot N1
Nanook thinks Marmot is the more likely wolf based on association with Deli, who is the likely fake claim between Esooa and them

this is not rocket science

just saying but if this were a more experienced forum with regards to using parity cop nanook would die for a claim with those checks lol

anyways

[VOTE: syn] aubergine

I've played parity cop more than a few times lol. I got a difference check and you're salty about it for some reason. I used the checks pretty well imo

This is also a pretty dramatic 180 from your tr of me earlier this phase lol



Side note: if we sleep, I always check myself to confirm which of my checks is mafia and which is town. Wiml probably dies. Then you probably kill me tomorrow anyway cause this town is deeply meh, my green check dies at night, you kill the red check the next day, there's a 50/50 between esooa and deli after that, if you get that right the other gets NKed and you go to f3

I check myself instead of esooa or deli or someone outside the obvious potential pairs cause I know you chucklefucks are just gonna kill me tomorrow anyways, that way at least one mafia gets confirmed. It slightly increases the odds of killing two mafia in two days correctly, and it keeps our dignity intact to not get swept

[Esooa]

nanook sometimes I just be posting shit to see what happens



Do you think we should sleep?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

If we sleep we go

Sleep 7v3
Nk 6v3
Miskill me I assume for this 5v3
One nk 4v3
Kill my red check 4v2
Nk 3v2
50/50 between esooa and deli, let's say correct one is killed, 3v1
If deli maf someone else nked, 2v1 with one confirmed, if esooa maf deli nked 2v1 with one confirmed (deli says who they jail ahead of time, functional green check)

If we don't sleep, assuming deli is maf (I assume I lose a 1v1 with esooa if they're town, so no point looking at that rn)
Kill deli 7v2
I get nked 6v2
Kill wrong check 5v2
Double nk 3v2
Kill now red check, 3v1
Nk 2v1, go to f3 with confirmed esooa alive

I suppose there's also a world where mafia prioritize killing esooa over me, thats actually fairly realistic since they only have one night they can do it if she's town and they can hit me and a green check on the double kill night


Maybe it is better to sleep? Idk, I think sleeping is lower risk, not sleeping goes great if we hit maf today and probably loses if we don't

[Wiml]

Like if Doc and JK Outs.
Tracker Flips.
I wonder what the fuckin unused PR is!!!???
Hmmmmmm.
Maybe fuckin Cop.
So then you claim Cop and claim 2 Townies have different alignments to set up ML’s for the win.
Also partner wise your most likely partners would be Syn and Mac so it would make sense you’d play it like this in that world.

I considered this too but wolves more likely than not knew the missing PR even before Esooa claimed.

[Wiml]

I mean they're an uncced jk claim its not great to kill them today lol

Unless you're gonna cc you should probably move

what if I were to tell you I don't believe the claim

I'd disagree with you until you provide a reason.

the reason is I think deli is lying

This isn't a guarantee, but HK gets really mad at people for lying about stuff as town. If he had mech info (I.E. would KNOW Deli is lying) I think he would say something different than "I think" Deli is lying

This is actually a good catch and I can +1 this.

There's the possibility that HK was less prone to believing Deli because he was a PR but no solid evidence?

I was asking myself "does wolf-Deli fake a roleblock on a townsperson not knowing their role?"...

But then I realised that Mac was roleblocked and couldn't cc Deli if he were a PR. If that's true, the fact that Deli chose to claim to have targeted the only player who couldn't counterclaim when claiming under pressure makes their claim a lot weaker.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I mean they're an uncced jk claim its not great to kill them today lol

Unless you're gonna cc you should probably move

what if I were to tell you I don't believe the claim

I'd disagree with you until you provide a reason.

the reason is I think deli is lying

This isn't a guarantee, but HK gets really mad at people for lying about stuff as town. If he had mech info (I.E. would KNOW Deli is lying) I think he would say something different than "I think" Deli is lying

This is actually a good catch and I can +1 this.

There's the possibility that HK was less prone to believing Deli because he was a PR but no solid evidence?

I was asking myself "does wolf-Deli fake a roleblock on a townsperson not knowing their role?"...

But then I realised that Mac was roleblocked and couldn't cc Deli if he were a PR. If that's true, the fact that Deli chose to claim to have targeted the only player who couldn't counterclaim when claiming under pressure makes their claim a lot weaker.

Expand on the "mac was roleblocked and couldn't cc" idea for me

[Wiml]

I mean they're an uncced jk claim its not great to kill them today lol

Unless you're gonna cc you should probably move

what if I were to tell you I don't believe the claim

I'd disagree with you until you provide a reason.

the reason is I think deli is lying

This isn't a guarantee, but HK gets really mad at people for lying about stuff as town. If he had mech info (I.E. would KNOW Deli is lying) I think he would say something different than "I think" Deli is lying

This is actually a good catch and I can +1 this.

There's the possibility that HK was less prone to believing Deli because he was a PR but no solid evidence?

I was asking myself "does wolf-Deli fake a roleblock on a townsperson not knowing their role?"...

But then I realised that Mac was roleblocked and couldn't cc Deli if he were a PR. If that's true, the fact that Deli chose to claim to have targeted the only player who couldn't counterclaim when claiming under pressure makes their claim a lot weaker.

Expand on the "mac was roleblocked and couldn't cc" idea for me

Well in a wolf-Deli world, Deli needs to pick a target. If their target was a power role (ie. Not roleblocked) then Deli would get immediately called out and killed for it.

Deli in this world *probably* doesn't want to say they roleblocked a partner because whoever they say they roleblocked here probably goes under scrutiny after Deli flips. I mean it's certainly an option but I don't think it's the option that Deli would take here as a wolf anyway.

So Mac was the absolute safest target Deli could have picked because Mac, being post capped at the time of the claim unless my chronology is horribly off, couldn't have turned around and said "Deli is lying, I wasn't roleblocked" for at least one more cycle.

It's not a huge huge thing but Deli conveniently picking the postcapped player feels like that time Marl claimed masons with Esooa to save himself for another Day phase after Esooa said she wouldn't be back before EoD.

[Esooa]

Deli 100% pre-planned the claim so this point isn't important

[MacDougall]

Deli is obvious wolf. Really no need to do anything else. Marmot feels obvious to me as well but you all probs need the Deli flip to get comfy with it.

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Deli] aubergine

[Wiml]

Sleep might be the better option? Given that either Nook has to die or he has to get a peek that probably forces him into a thunderdome with either Creature or Marm.

Deli's claim is the weakest but I think they're towny still tbh.

Also given the fact that if we don't sleep wolves get two kills to compensate anyway on later nights.

There's probably also a merit to making Nook self check and either be the nightkill or force himself into a direct 1-1 with either Marm or Creature (but I don't think this is worth it?).

[Wiml]

Sleeping is lame but either Nook dies and we suddenly have two direct ccs or Nook lives and we have one direct cc between Nook and one of Marm/Creature (and then probably either Deli or Esooa as a result).

[Wiml]

And if the team is just Deli/Marm then they gain nothing because the wolves get an additional kill to move the game back to even numbers tomorrow(?) anyway.

[Wiml]

And if the team is just Deli/Marm then they gain nothing because the wolves get an additional kill to move the game back to even numbers tomorrow(?) anyway.

*back to odd numbers

[Esooa]

@MacDougall if Deli is obvious wolf then you should be able to say more than statements which mean literally notihng

[Wiml]

Also if we sleep, Deli can attempt to roleblock another PR.

[Wiml]

Also if we sleep, Deli can attempt to roleblock another PR.

[Wiml]

I was going to say: "not sure on the merits of this but wi try to map it out".

Sleep looking like the best mech strat though.

[VOTE: Sleep] aubergine

[MacDougall]

@MacDougall if Deli is obvious wolf then you should be able to say more than statements which mean literally notihng

Lmao ok boomer

[Esooa]

I can believe Kami's a wolf. But if she is they're doing really fucking well and I don't know who their partner is. I've read their iso and multiple iso's of who their partner could be. If you're town do some work and actually try to fuckin figure it out

[Esooa]

I meant to say uhhhhhhhhhhh

Deli in the above

I know Deli and if they're a wolf they're doing really well. So try harder than just afk'ing this day. To literally everyone. Cause I've seen close to none of you do anything

[Wiml]

I'm working on a strategy but it involves sleeping then turboing Nanook tbh.

[Wiml]

But mechanically I think I can guarantee us 2 wolves in 3 days worst case and am trying to get it smoothed out.

[Deli]

Sorry I'm here

I think atp sleeping is probably the better option, mostly because my wolf reads aren't wanting to and then I can JK Nanook? I'm not sure what that does. I feel like out of Nanook/Esooa we lose if it is Esooa, and I can't think of any wolf partners for Esooa, but the team for Nanook is pretty obvious Syn/Mac.

[Wiml]

We don't lose if it's Esooa. I don't think it is Esooa but my mech strategy should allocate for that world too.

[Deli]

Has there been a post count recently? Similar situation as last time, I can be around from like 10:30-11:30 but I've got class in ten minutes

[Deli]

We don't lose if it's Esooa. I don't think it is Esooa but my mech strategy should allocate for that world too.

If it's Esooa, she deserves a mafia goddess title. Feel like her partners could be anyone? Maybe Gavial/???? -- but I guess if it is Esooa we still have the Nanook Check.

[Gavial]

If we sleep we go

Sleep 7v3
Nk 6v3
Miskill me I assume for this 5v3
One nk 4v3
Kill my red check 4v2
Nk 3v2
50/50 between esooa and deli, let's say correct one is killed, 3v1
If deli maf someone else nked, 2v1 with one confirmed, if esooa maf deli nked 2v1 with one confirmed (deli says who they jail ahead of time, functional green check)

If we don't sleep, assuming deli is maf (I assume I lose a 1v1 with esooa if they're town, so no point looking at that rn)
Kill deli 7v2
I get nked 6v2
Kill wrong check 5v2
Double nk 3v2
Kill now red check, 3v1
Nk 2v1, go to f3 with confirmed esooa alive

I suppose there's also a world where mafia prioritize killing esooa over me, thats actually fairly realistic since they only have one night they can do it if she's town and they can hit me and a green check on the double kill night


Maybe it is better to sleep? Idk, I think sleeping is lower risk, not sleeping goes great if we hit maf today and probably loses if we don't

Why would you wanna 1V1 a town if your town?
Nanook caught scum!

[Gavial]

Deli is obvious wolf. Really no need to do anything else. Marmot feels obvious to me as well but you all probs need the Deli flip to get comfy with it.

This just makes me think more and more it’s You, Syn and Nanook.

[Wiml]

I think sleep into voting Nanook is the play tbh.

A third Nanook peek pretty much guarantees which of Creature and Marm is a wolf if he flips town.

[Esooa]

I think sleep into voting Nanook is the play tbh.

A third Nanook peek pretty much guarantees which of Creature and Marm is a wolf if he flips town.

I'd agree but it's not just nook. We dome nook+his red peek and vote between them imo.

I think that's the best play.

[Wiml]

I think sleep into voting Nanook is the play tbh.

A third Nanook peek pretty much guarantees which of Creature and Marm is a wolf if he flips town.

I'd agree but it's not just nook. We dome nook+his red peek and vote between them imo.

I think that's the best play.

Yeah I can get behind that.

[Wiml]

@Deli would you link me a recent wolf game when you have the time please?

[Wiml]

@Deli would you link me a recent wolf game when you have the time please?

Preferably one you think you played well in.

[Deli]

sorry i was just trying to reread d1 to see if I could see anything from Nanook or Syn.

uhh I can try, POG is not easy for iso-ing