[TOWN WIN] Cool Bug Mafia

[DrWilgy]

Who among these was around in D1's EoD?
Roxy, Abigail, Michelle, Kate, Willgy

Wilgy, why did you move your vote onto Abigail?

To tie the wagon and because Wiml was bent so out of shape by it.

[Wiml]

Who among these was around in D1's EoD?
Roxy, Abigail, Michelle, Kate, Willgy

Wilgy, why did you move your vote onto Abigail?

To tie the wagon and because Wiml was bent so out of shape by it.

SMH

[DrWilgy]

Skimmed Falcon.

Ignoring the dead, Falcon's concerns were on Epi/Kate. Falcon's questioning was on Wiml, Me, Roxy. Falcon's TRs were on Abigail and Michelle.

Abigail killing Falcon is low EV. I very much want to clear Abigail for this.

[DrWilgy]

Further something that's been brewing, I just need to trust myself on the Abigail read. I've done it correctly several times before, and I do not see any form of agenda from them. I'd say Abigail is town based on Gut and Falcon NK.

[DrWilgy]

Dosh Diddly Darnit Jay you have 6 pages. I don't wanna read that.

[Wiml]

In the other wolf-Roxy game she distanced towards her wolf partners a bit more but never actually voted there.

She definitely didn't seem willing to bus at least.

[Michelle]

Hiiii
gonna be a bit busy today cuz my college classes are starting again today but I'd appreciate if I was given a bit more time to catch up with what's happening so far
no idea what the setup is, but I'm town vanilla

skimmed thread very quickly and from my understanding I'm in the PoE due to inactivity
seeing a lot of familiar faces here

Michelle you seem super familiar but I can't remember which game I played with you in the past

Where we played and what other username you have?

Can you answer me @_ExLight ?

[Wiml]

I guess you could argue that Roxy might have asked Lime to step it up and he just said "you can bus me" but doesn't seem likely + there are other reasons why Roxy is town.

[Wiml]

Roxy only voted Lime Coke after he cast his final vote on me and then dipped so meh.

At that point I think voting him doesn't get much credit.

Still think Roxy is town but I'm not giving her clearing credit just on the vote itself.

[Wiml]

Although to Roxy's credit she did seem to be leaning that way long before voting.

[DrWilgy]

JJJ had PoE of Epi > Kate > Wilgy

JJJ's assoc has
Wiml/LC !W/W
Roxy/LC !W/W
Michelle/LC ?W/W BUT TR
Kate/LC ?W/W
Epi/LC ?!W/W
Abi/LC !W/W

Reads without assoc D1
TR Michelle, Wilgy, Wiml, Roxy
LTR Epi, Abigail
!TR Kate

The more I go through JJJ's ISO I again find no reason Wiml, Roxy, Michelle would pull the trigger there.

Michelle and Roxy remain town cleared. Wiml is slowly coming off my 'if I'm wrong list' Abigail is already off my 'if I'm wrong list.'

Like it just feels based on who's been shot that it's gotta still be in Epi/Ex

[DrWilgy]

2 hours till EoD

With hammer at 4 I think I can put my vote on Epi and chill at 2 for a minute. Will read through Epi/Kate/Ex and think some more though.

[VOTE: Epi] aubergine

[_ExLight]

Hiiii
gonna be a bit busy today cuz my college classes are starting again today but I'd appreciate if I was given a bit more time to catch up with what's happening so far
no idea what the setup is, but I'm town vanilla

skimmed thread very quickly and from my understanding I'm in the PoE due to inactivity
seeing a lot of familiar faces here

Michelle you seem super familiar but I can't remember which game I played with you in the past

Where we played and what other username you have?

Can you answer me @_ExLight ?

if I knew where we played I wouldn't be asking you lol

I go by ExLight and Ex everywhere

[DrWilgy]

IF I am in fact W Wiml. I do not shoot JJJ, because I *SHOULD* be townspewed to the same meter JJJ is. Meaning my optimal late game that keeps me out of 'why weren't you shot' would be like, Wiml/JJJ/X.

I do not know if Wiml would sub to that line of thinking as W, but I know I would. Just food for think.

[_ExLight]

was JJJ tunneling anyone during D2?

[DrWilgy]

was JJJ tunneling anyone during D2?

JJJ's PoE was very hard Quin then into Epi>Kate>Me. The most recent page of his ISO is helpful on that front.

[Wiml]

was JJJ tunneling anyone during D2?

Quin.

His legacy PoE is the same as my current PoE (something like you/Epi >>> Wilgy).

[_ExLight]

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

[DrWilgy]

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

I'd utilize his ISO, not his presence in this situation fwiw.

[_ExLight]

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

I'd utilize his ISO, not his presence in this situation fwiw.

I'll get to rereading the thread after my class

I just find it weird because it's not too common for scum to get this quiet when their asses in the PoE and they're in the chopping block if they're still putting up a fight

[_ExLight]

JJJ is considered a strong player yea? His name is familiar, I think they've been sent to champs a few times?

[_ExLight]

IF I am in fact W Wiml. I do not shoot JJJ, because I *SHOULD* be townspewed to the same meter JJJ is. Meaning my optimal late game that keeps me out of 'why weren't you shot' would be like, Wiml/JJJ/X.

I do not know if Wiml would sub to that line of thinking as W, but I know I would. Just food for think.

can you explain this post to me like I'm 5yo?

[DrWilgy]

JJJ is considered a strong player yea? His name is familiar, I think they've been sent to champs a few times?

Yes

[Michelle]

Hiiii
gonna be a bit busy today cuz my college classes are starting again today but I'd appreciate if I was given a bit more time to catch up with what's happening so far
no idea what the setup is, but I'm town vanilla

skimmed thread very quickly and from my understanding I'm in the PoE due to inactivity
seeing a lot of familiar faces here

Michelle you seem super familiar but I can't remember which game I played with you in the past

Where we played and what other username you have?

Can you answer me @_ExLight ?

if I knew where we played I wouldn't be asking you lol

I go by ExLight and Ex everywhere

I don't remember to play with any Ex player, what's your home site?
It's probably a confusion, Michelle is a common name.

[Wiml]

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

I'd utilize his ISO, not his presence in this situation fwiw.

I'll get to rereading the thread after my class

I just find it weird because it's not too common for scum to get this quiet when their asses in the PoE and they're in the chopping block if they're still putting up a fight

He's never active at this time of day.

Earlier on he vocally supported Michelle's dodgy case on me that opened up the established PoE and was trying to gotcha me and make his own case on me.

Then later on he opened his PoE to everyone besides Michelle and Roxy (who seemed like the two most likely NKs as everyone considered them clear atp).

He backtracked on a lot of that after some scrutiny but he's very much been a drastic advocate for opening up the PoE earlier this day phase.

[Wiml]

JJJ is considered a strong player yea? His name is familiar, I think they've been sent to champs a few times?

JJJ is a strong player yeah.

[DrWilgy]

IF I am in fact W Wiml. I do not shoot JJJ, because I *SHOULD* be townspewed to the same meter JJJ is. Meaning my optimal late game that keeps me out of 'why weren't you shot' would be like, Wiml/JJJ/X.

I do not know if Wiml would sub to that line of thinking as W, but I know I would. Just food for think.

can you explain this post to me like I'm 5yo?

if I'm W and I need to f3, even if it's just d2, I'm going to be planning who does and doesn't make it to that f3.

Wiml W, I think easily enough f3s with whoever they want.

Wiml W also gets caught if they survive too long while the consensus is they should be townspewed.

Wiml W would've thought themselves to be consensus townspewed last cycle (when JJJ died).

Wiml W can avoid being caught for survival, if someone else who should be consensus townspewed also makes it to -1 Lylo if not f3 (options being JJJ/Michelle).

Michelle lightly wrs Wiml.

JJJ trs Wiml.

All this leads to me thinking W Wiml either wouldn't or shouldn't have shot JJJ based on the gamestate last night. Now that PoE has widened W Wiml can shoot whoever whenever, but before the widening, I don't know if JJJ shot makes alot of sense for W Wiml.

[Wiml]

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

I'd utilize his ISO, not his presence in this situation fwiw.

I'll get to rereading the thread after my class

I just find it weird because it's not too common for scum to get this quiet when their asses in the PoE and they're in the chopping block if they're still putting up a fight

He's never active at this time of day.

Earlier on he vocally supported Michelle's dodgy case on me that opened up the established PoE and was trying to gotcha me and make his own case on me.

Then later on he opened his PoE to everyone besides Michelle and Roxy (who seemed like the two most likely NKs as everyone considered them clear atp).

He backtracked on a lot of that after some scrutiny but he's very much been a drastic advocate for opening up the PoE earlier this day phase.

Adding on to this: he also made a lengthy wall about how solving by PoE is a bad strategy.

[Wiml]

Wow. Weird nk is weird.

I made a comment about it earlier but I genuinely believe that Roxy more than any other player in this game would not have chosen the nightkills that we've seen happen.

[_ExLight]

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

I'd utilize his ISO, not his presence in this situation fwiw.

I'll get to rereading the thread after my class

I just find it weird because it's not too common for scum to get this quiet when their asses in the PoE and they're in the chopping block if they're still putting up a fight

He's never active at this time of day.

Earlier on he vocally supported Michelle's dodgy case on me that opened up the established PoE and was trying to gotcha me and make his own case on me.

Then later on he opened his PoE to everyone besides Michelle and Roxy (who seemed like the two most likely NKs as everyone considered them clear atp).

He backtracked on a lot of that after some scrutiny but he's very much been a drastic advocate for opening up the PoE earlier this day phase.

Adding on to this: he also made a lengthy wall about how solving by PoE is a bad strategy.

I agree, since there's no mechanical evidence all the PoE isn't really solid

[Wiml]

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

I'd utilize his ISO, not his presence in this situation fwiw.

I'll get to rereading the thread after my class

I just find it weird because it's not too common for scum to get this quiet when their asses in the PoE and they're in the chopping block if they're still putting up a fight

He's never active at this time of day.

Earlier on he vocally supported Michelle's dodgy case on me that opened up the established PoE and was trying to gotcha me and make his own case on me.

Then later on he opened his PoE to everyone besides Michelle and Roxy (who seemed like the two most likely NKs as everyone considered them clear atp).

He backtracked on a lot of that after some scrutiny but he's very much been a drastic advocate for opening up the PoE earlier this day phase.

Adding on to this: he also made a lengthy wall about how solving by PoE is a bad strategy.

I agree, since there's no mechanical evidence all the PoE isn't really solid

It's much more solid than direct finding wolves if you're good enough imo.

And a lot more pleasant than the alternative of just tunnelling people into the ground every phase.

[_ExLight]

my problem with PoE in a vanilla setup is that if you make the wrong grouping it might guarantee wolves to win since town helps wolf pick the kills without disrupting the coordinated lynches

[DrWilgy]

Kate thoughts:

Civilians
falcon45ca -- probably town, and something to be mindful of moving forward. falcon tends to inevitably become vote-bait eventually, and if he's town right now he'll still be town later.

Have posted, no read
Wiml -- early posts are perfectly okay, but they don't inform me about Wiml's motivations yet.
Kate -- town read on falcon could use qualification, otherwise no impression

No posts yet
Abigail
DrWilgy
Epignosis
Lime Coke
Quin
Roxy

Suspicion exists
Michelle -- initial reads are a little hard to believe

This post is largely for my own mental organization, but might as well share.

I very rarely give qualification or much reason, but falcon doesn't bound into the game talking about actual game stuff as wolf. And I can't remember wold falcon ever being on eof the first voter, which he just became when he voted Michelle. So my read on him remains civ.

Me and falcon, town core. Lol.

Kate's entry reads were very lv1

So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*

Rule of 3 including the lhf Quin, the teammate and then jabbing at the guy who just randed W 3 games in a row?

Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml


One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.

Why are you confident that there's specifically one wolf in those four names?

Given that you would know that you're town, I'm not seeing a compelling reason why a two vote wagon on another player during RVS has to contain a wolf within the three names with the confidence you're suggesting here.

Not that I don't think it's very plausible but I'm specifically interested about hearing about why you're so confident about this.

If this is in fact true, it's not falcon and I really don't see wolf Michelle at this point. Is anyone thinking this was a post made to throw us off of PA herself?

This is not real lol

Reads are fluid, especially this early. Keep doing your thing, Abigail.

Okay but like what I mean by this is not real is that 2 people have said that I'm town

Michelle has said why

They've answered

Michelle has said no

And they've been like oh ha yes you are right in fact no

And nobody thinks this is fishy or weird.

It brings to mind that famous W Bush quote

Fool me once shame on you fool me twice uh never fool me again

This is extremely coherent for a tzenon.

Gonna put my vote here for now.

[VOTE: PA] aubergine

I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

When she is wolf, she's all over the place. I'm pretty sure I described her the exact opposite way in the last game.

Kate's read on Abigail.

I don't agree with it but is there a world where T Kate was really feelin it thus 'confident intuitive' Kate was displayed here?

Why are yall voting for 7up?

Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?

Some LC pushback and some Abigail push. Abigail push here feels kinda bad faith.

I came across that reading your ISO Neon, but perhaps for the sake of brevity, could you talk to me about your read on Kate?

It's not a great read but Kate knows me possibly as good or better than anyone in this game and generally has a good track record of reading me town including finding me like immediately just last game so her complete flop on reading me correctly and the lack of conviction and the lack of content and the lack of being a loud voice for town. It's concerning.

I just had a lot of crap irl. And if you know me, I'd NEVER blame rl to protect my wolfness. I think that's lame play.

Ok caught up.

My thoughts have been all over the place today.

My read of Epi is based on I'm always wrong in my gut about him so I just call him opposite and move on and has been a pretty good strategy so far. So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

My Wigly read is a bit shaky I was all good thinking he was town until---- he started posting. I can't help it. It makes me nervous.

My Kate read feels like I possibly made it on quicksand. I'm trying very hard to not suspect her I *know* for a fact that she is busy. But to not post at all? Not even a couple of quick reads? Idk,idk,idk. I feel icky just thinking she could be bad.

My Princess read is all vibe. I really feel they are town. I'm just vibing with their posts. I cannot seem to make you pop up to mention you but I have a question. What do you think of Michelle/Epi vs Wiml? Let's chat about it please.

Michelle and Wiml damn. I have to sleep on all I've digested in the last few pages. I really have you both as town now I have Epi and Michelle and their cases on Wiml.

If I go on gut I feel Wiml does come across as a bit cornered only bc they kept trying to shut down their investigation.

Princess please respond to my query.

I'm really sorry. I can't do any quick reads bc I haven't even read. I am so sorry. I never play this way and I would never use real life to cover my wolfness. This slot is civ. I've asked for a sub.

I'll see you all in a few weeks after Andrew is gone to school.

Love you all.

ugh, these two posts still feel very genuine. I think the big thing is that Kate felt the need to append 'this slot is civ' and I don't think Kate directly lies WHILE expressing how being busy prevented play and that they wouldn't do that as W.

Part of me thinks busy Kate would just take the L and move on without worrying about a sub.

The 'bad faith' that I felt could've been genuine confident Kate.

Man, if it's Kate and I'm being AtE'd out of thinking it's Kate imma form trust issues.

[Wiml]

Although the point wasn't if you agreed or disagreed.

The point was that Epi has done a lot to try to get out of being PoEed this day phase (which was your concern).

[Wiml]

my problem with PoE in a vanilla setup is that if you make the wrong grouping it might guarantee wolves to win since town helps wolf pick the kills without disrupting the coordinated lynches

You simply need to keep reviewing evidence and updating reads accordingly.

The exact same way that you would using non-PoE methods except those tend to be less consistent.

[DrWilgy]

my problem with PoE in a vanilla setup is that if you make the wrong grouping it might guarantee wolves to win since town helps wolf pick the kills without disrupting the coordinated lynches

I'm not sure why everyone thinks that a PoE method for solving has to be 100% or 0%.

You can follow a PoE method till lylo and then reassess to see who was a wolf taking advantage of the faulty PoE. If a wolf is taking advantage of a faulty PoE in a way you describe it just fufills self resolution for townies and provides data and trends to those who end up in lylo.

[_ExLight]

my problem with PoE in a vanilla setup is that if you make the wrong grouping it might guarantee wolves to win since town helps wolf pick the kills without disrupting the coordinated lynches

You simply need to keep reviewing evidence and updating reads accordingly.

The exact same way that you would using non-PoE methods except those tend to be less consistent.

if you're always revising the PoE then it's not PoE at all lol its just playing normally, for PoE peep gotta lock on a group of people they know for sure has a scum

also my class ended super early omw home
will start rereading game now

[Wiml]

"I don't agree with it but is there a world where T Kate was really feelin it thus 'confident intuitive' Kate was displayed here?"

@DrWilgy seems kind of similar to how Kate initially snapread town-Falcon as being a wolf after subbing in in the game you/Guillo were w/w in? An initial wolf snapread on somebody she knows well not conforming to expectations.

It didn't ring alarm bells for me the way it did for others tbh.

[Wiml]

my problem with PoE in a vanilla setup is that if you make the wrong grouping it might guarantee wolves to win since town helps wolf pick the kills without disrupting the coordinated lynches

I'm not sure why everyone thinks that a PoE method for solving has to be 100% or 0%.

You can follow a PoE method till lylo and then reassess to see who was a wolf taking advantage of the faulty PoE. If a wolf is taking advantage of a faulty PoE in a way you describe it just fufills self resolution for townies and provides data and trends to those who end up in lylo.

^^^

[DrWilgy]

my problem with PoE in a vanilla setup is that if you make the wrong grouping it might guarantee wolves to win since town helps wolf pick the kills without disrupting the coordinated lynches

I'm not sure why everyone thinks that a PoE method for solving has to be 100% or 0%.

You can follow a PoE method till lylo and then reassess to see who was a wolf taking advantage of the faulty PoE. If a wolf is taking advantage of a faulty PoE in a way you describe it just fufills self resolution for townies and provides data and trends to those who end up in lylo.

further, I think PoE is fine and should be utilized at a 70-80%. Of course analysis as to what can break the PoE and prevent it's use and realizing when the trends absorbed from the PoE are no longer viable is just part of good play and how a PoE can evolve.

The main thing about PoE when followed is that it ENABLES self resolution.

[_ExLight]

bleh

[Wiml]

my problem with PoE in a vanilla setup is that if you make the wrong grouping it might guarantee wolves to win since town helps wolf pick the kills without disrupting the coordinated lynches

You simply need to keep reviewing evidence and updating reads accordingly.

The exact same way that you would using non-PoE methods except those tend to be less consistent.

if you're always revising the PoE then it's not PoE at all lol its just playing normally, for PoE peep gotta lock on a group of people they know for sure has a scum

also my class ended super early omw home
will start rereading game now

I mean I'd say most people consider solving via finding townreads as a PoE method.

Ideally you want to confidently lock those townreads in at some point but it's still the same method.

[DrWilgy]

"I don't agree with it but is there a world where T Kate was really feelin it thus 'confident intuitive' Kate was displayed here?"

@DrWilgy seems kind of similar to how Kate initially snapread town-Falcon as being a wolf after subbing in in the game you/Guillo were w/w in? An initial wolf snapread on somebody she knows well not conforming to expectations.

It didn't ring alarm bells for me the way it did for others tbh.

Aye and that's part of the problem. Kate often evolves and follows the lines that form from her snaps. That's why it's hard to tell if the Abigail was in fact the conclusion of intuition OR the step getting there assuming T.

[Wiml]

"I don't agree with it but is there a world where T Kate was really feelin it thus 'confident intuitive' Kate was displayed here?"

@DrWilgy seems kind of similar to how Kate initially snapread town-Falcon as being a wolf after subbing in in the game you/Guillo were w/w in? An initial wolf snapread on somebody she knows well not conforming to expectations.

It didn't ring alarm bells for me the way it did for others tbh.

Aye and that's part of the problem. Kate often evolves and follows the lines that form from her snaps. That's why it's hard to tell if the Abigail was in fact the conclusion of intuition OR the step getting there assuming T.

Makes sense.

My read on Kate is in general a very mixed bag tbh. Is she the sort of person who tends to TMI her partners or is she as a wolf likely to steer away from very surface level wolfy things like asking "why is Lime Coke a wagon?" and never following up on that or dropping a real read on him?

[DrWilgy]

Few Ex thoughts.

Welcome ExLight.

Guess the PoE plan is off now because this changes too much.

me subbing in changes the PoE? why?

I'm really not sure if I follow

me simply joining in shouldn't change PoE
my slot is pretty bad, while I'm asking to give me some time to catch up, letting me go to pursue lessee possibilities is a strange logic

Asking questions that are seemingly towny. If I subbed into T Kate's slot and saw the happenings and the postings I feel these are the questions I'd ask and observations I'd make.

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

I still hasn't seen this epi fella post which is bothering me

Comes off as a little opportunistic imo. However, I get the position Ex is in if T and can still see myself thinking the same way if my CW from consensus PoE hasn't been seen by myself personally.

Aye, between Ex and Kate, I think giving Ex more time is the correct answer. Kate, don't give me trust issues plz.

[DrWilgy]

"I don't agree with it but is there a world where T Kate was really feelin it thus 'confident intuitive' Kate was displayed here?"

@DrWilgy seems kind of similar to how Kate initially snapread town-Falcon as being a wolf after subbing in in the game you/Guillo were w/w in? An initial wolf snapread on somebody she knows well not conforming to expectations.

It didn't ring alarm bells for me the way it did for others tbh.

Aye and that's part of the problem. Kate often evolves and follows the lines that form from her snaps. That's why it's hard to tell if the Abigail was in fact the conclusion of intuition OR the step getting there assuming T.

Makes sense.

My read on Kate is in general a very mixed bag tbh. Is she the sort of person who tends to TMI her partners or is she as a wolf likely to steer away from very surface level wolfy things like asking "why is Lime Coke a wagon?" and never following up on that or dropping a real read on him?

Shit dude, idk.

I do not know the shape of a W Kate.

[Wiml]

"I don't agree with it but is there a world where T Kate was really feelin it thus 'confident intuitive' Kate was displayed here?"

@DrWilgy seems kind of similar to how Kate initially snapread town-Falcon as being a wolf after subbing in in the game you/Guillo were w/w in? An initial wolf snapread on somebody she knows well not conforming to expectations.

It didn't ring alarm bells for me the way it did for others tbh.

Aye and that's part of the problem. Kate often evolves and follows the lines that form from her snaps. That's why it's hard to tell if the Abigail was in fact the conclusion of intuition OR the step getting there assuming T.

Makes sense.

My read on Kate is in general a very mixed bag tbh. Is she the sort of person who tends to TMI her partners or is she as a wolf likely to steer away from very surface level wolfy things like asking "why is Lime Coke a wagon?" and never following up on that or dropping a real read on him?

Shit dude, idk.

I do not know the shape of a W Kate.

Same here, feels like it would be so obvious if I knew her a bit better.

[Wiml]

I have AtE- related trust issues lol.

Never again will I clear solely based on AtE.

[Wiml]

I fully agree with the posts being town indicative though.

Especially the fact that it happened twice.

[Wiml]

I'm unfortunately not going to have the time I wanted to read into Epi's ISO thoroughly before EoD.