Cartomancy [Game Over]

[staypositivefriend]

if creature Is maf like I think he is then I agree that Jack is more than likely town

[Sabiplz]

I could swap Sabi for idk Porscha. I’m scum reading Sabi off that one post alone. Wilgy could also potentially be town.

I don’t think there’s a world with town Tutuu or town Creature. I’m very concerned that one is just the zealot and we’ll have a shit time after getting essentially no yeet today. But there’s nothing we can do about that possibility.

Yeah there is. If there's a Zealot it's only Creature or Tutuu so vote out sig.

I very strongly think Creature is not the zealot. I'd bet my life on it.

Why

I have my reasons.

Wanna share with the class

[Seanzie]

I could swap Sabi for idk Porscha. I’m scum reading Sabi off that one post alone. Wilgy could also potentially be town.

I don’t think there’s a world with town Tutuu or town Creature. I’m very concerned that one is just the zealot and we’ll have a shit time after getting essentially no yeet today. But there’s nothing we can do about that possibility.

Yeah there is. If there's a Zealot it's only Creature or Tutuu so vote out sig.

I very strongly think Creature is not the zealot. I'd bet my life on it.

Why

I have my reasons.

Wanna share with the class

No. End of story.

[Creature]

I can't figure out who is most likely wolf and I'm afraid it's too late

Hail Mary

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

Hail Mary?

There's 24 hours left in this day.

lol yeah I thought EOD was today and I also wanted to shake up the current wagons

[Creature]

So the end of day 2 wagon is interesting.

Roxy 4: Creature, Baudib1, Alison, Lucy

What chance of this wagon being pure pure given the context?

I wouldn't imagine that the entire mafia team stacks Alison.

There's already two dead town and the other is Oracle.

I think this just outs Creature?

Of course because wolves are mechanically obliged to be present in every wagon with four votes

[Creature]

So in the day 1 tvt

Wilgy
Creature
Dennis
Kate

abstained from participating.

Always multiple mafia off wagon in the context. Further evidence for the POE.

This is more legit though

[MacDougall]

So the end of day 2 wagon is interesting.

Roxy 4: Creature, Baudib1, Alison, Lucy

What chance of this wagon being pure pure given the context?

I wouldn't imagine that the entire mafia team stacks Alison.

There's already two dead town and the other is Oracle.

I think this just outs Creature?

Of course because wolves are mechanically obliged to be present in every wagon with four votes

Mafia are obligated to vote. They are obligated to vote in a way that achieves mafia goals. They are disinclined to vote in a way that causes lockstep. There are very few places they can reasonably be on day 2. One of those is voting Roxy. You are the only non confirmed town voting there. Why would there not be a mafia voting there? If you are town why are one of the 5 mafia not voting Roxy? When you give me your answer, I expect you to then have a much narrower POE because if you are town, you have a perfect understanding of what the mafia actually actively did on day 2. The fact you haven't been solving with this in mind already is indicative of lack of town solving mindset imo.

[Creature]

Maybe I am pocketed but I like tutuu for trying to work with me. They could've just followed the creature wolfreading circlejerk for all day as they already wolfread me.

[Creature]

So the end of day 2 wagon is interesting.

Roxy 4: Creature, Baudib1, Alison, Lucy

What chance of this wagon being pure pure given the context?

I wouldn't imagine that the entire mafia team stacks Alison.

There's already two dead town and the other is Oracle.

I think this just outs Creature?

Of course because wolves are mechanically obliged to be present in every wagon with four votes

Mafia are obligated to vote. They are obligated to vote in a way that achieves mafia goals. They are disinclined to vote in a way that causes lockstep. There are very few places they can reasonably be on day 2. One of those is voting Roxy. You are the only non confirmed town voting there. Why would there not be a mafia voting there? If you are town why are one of the 5 mafia not voting Roxy? When you give me your answer, I expect you to then have a much narrower POE because if you are town, you have a perfect understanding of what the mafia actually actively did on day 2. The fact you haven't been solving with this in mind already is indicative of lack of town solving mindset imo.

It's not that uncommon for a four-vote wagon to be pure and afair there were other Roxy voters D1 and D2. I remember Dennis was one of them.

[Creature]

So the end of day 2 wagon is interesting.

Roxy 4: Creature, Baudib1, Alison, Lucy

What chance of this wagon being pure pure given the context?

I wouldn't imagine that the entire mafia team stacks Alison.

There's already two dead town and the other is Oracle.

I think this just outs Creature?

Of course because wolves are mechanically obliged to be present in every wagon with four votes

Mafia are obligated to vote. They are obligated to vote in a way that achieves mafia goals. They are disinclined to vote in a way that causes lockstep. There are very few places they can reasonably be on day 2. One of those is voting Roxy. You are the only non confirmed town voting there. Why would there not be a mafia voting there? If you are town why are one of the 5 mafia not voting Roxy? When you give me your answer, I expect you to then have a much narrower POE because if you are town, you have a perfect understanding of what the mafia actually actively did on day 2. The fact you haven't been solving with this in mind already is indicative of lack of town solving mindset imo.

It's not that uncommon for a four-vote wagon to be pure and afair there were other Roxy voters D1 and D2. I remember Dennis was one of them.

but I'm in terms that in a TvT day wolves are more likely to be offwagon.

[Creature]

Baudib1: 2
DrWilgy
Seanzie

Roxy: 2
Creature
Dennis

Dennis : 1
Kate

Missed the Vote: 1
Porscha

Those were the players who ended up offwagon EOD1. I guess DrWilgy and Seanzie were on baudib1 when baudib1 was a larger wagon. If Mac is looking for the wolf on Roxy then Dennis may be the one. Kate's vote on Dennis also feels really meh. Porscha not voting anyone may be actually a good look.

[Creature]

Ok so sig, Dennis and Kate look the worse EOD1.

I still wonder what would be sig's wolf motivation yesterday but meh this is prob weak.

[Creature]

Alison
6
40%
Voters: falcon45ca, Neon, Jackofhearts2005, tutuu, sig, Dennis

I think this wagon should likely contain wolves if wolves were planning to activate the moon on Alison. Maybe not along the last voters though.

[Creature]

If alison is mafia i feel like 2 or maybe 3 of the people vehemently pushing her are also mafia

Looking at jack and sig

A possible explanation for the behavior "alison maf, i aint moving, nu-uh, nothing else exists i put my hands on my ears lalalalala" is an orchestrated bus, maybe alison has exams or something she always has exams :P

(I still have an unconfident townread on her, just exploring an option)

Aww darn you got me but I guess I’ll double down and hope for the best. Maybe reverse psychology will keep you from yeeting Alison, who is wolves with me.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

I was thinking to myself during the EOD that there was no way Fingersplints was going to flip mafia cuz it's just never fair like that but god damn I couldn't have really found anyone more likely to be mafia than them.

Oh well.

Time for a patented Mac flip flop.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Bet

I want to kill Alison and then the people pushing her regardless of her flip

So im set on Alison > Jack > Sig atm

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

What caused the sudden change from "Don't kill Alison this is just how she plays" to "Let's get Alison's head. NOW."

There is a concept in mafia known as "resolving the counterwagon". The idea is that by flipping the top two wagons D1, if one is town and the other is mafia, we can out the whole mafia team by analyzing who was on which wagon. The weakness of this strategy is if both players flip town, which gives us two fruitless days and nothing to show for it. In this case, however, if I flip town I am guaranteed to out multiple mafia with me so it's a good trade.

I think the proposed strategy is logical.

If you're sure

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

The in-thread votes on Alison. Then there was also Neon and sig silently voting while Mac moved out.

[Creature]

Creature
3
14%
Voters: Sabiplz, DrWilgy, falcon45ca

tutuu
3
14%
Voters: MacDougall, Bereft, sig

I think EOD3 is also likely to contain wolves outside the Roxy wagon, although it depends on tutuu's alignment.

[Creature]

Ok I think I'm tripping. I'd say sig, Dennis and Kate/Sabi look the worse votewise.

[Dennis]

I don't think I care enough to catch up like 300 posts right now so hello thread

Okay looking at this page it's a bunch of wagon analysis which goes right over my head but I can try

So what is it that you're using to determine whether there are wolves on wagon or not?

[Dennis]

Baudib1: 2
DrWilgy
Seanzie

Roxy: 2
Creature
Dennis

Dennis : 1
Kate

Missed the Vote: 1
Porscha

Those were the players who ended up offwagon EOD1. I guess DrWilgy and Seanzie were on baudib1 when baudib1 was a larger wagon. If Mac is looking for the wolf on Roxy then Dennis may be the one. Kate's vote on Dennis also feels really meh. Porscha not voting anyone may be actually a good look.

I think Kate said she almost missed the vote and voted me 'for the lolz' just so she could pull a card

[Creature]

I don't think I care enough to catch up like 300 posts right now so hello thread

Okay looking at this page it's a bunch of wagon analysis which goes right over my head but I can try

So what is it that you're using to determine whether there are wolves on wagon or not?

I was trying to predict where wolves would be in the wagons but I am prob confbiasing with my already preexisting reads.

[Dennis]

I have historically bad votes. Ask wilgy, I killed him once and in another game there was the 'for counterwagon' incident of '22

[Dennis]

Um okay creature is intimidating me with wagon magic so I'm gonna give him + Town rep and look the other way

[Creature]

I asked for a sub, but it has not come through yet. I voted for Dennis for the lolz

Yeah I don't like this

[VOTE: Sabiplz] aubergine

[Dennis]

What don't you like about it? Cuz I just thought she didn't wanna screw over her sub with no card

[Creature]

The fact that half the people that killed Alison are on Roxy doesnt fill me with confidence but then again if they are wolf they would want to bus

Jack, Dennis and tutuu were the players who voted Alison D2 and then Roxy D3.

[Creature]

What don't you like about it? Cuz I just thought she didn't wanna screw over her sub with no card

"I voted Dennis for the lolz"

but I didn't consider the voting to get a card part.

[Creature]

Goddamn I couldn't find anything in Rondo's ISO.

[Creature]

[VOTE: Dennis] aubergine

because tutuu's here

[robyn]

hello

[Sabiplz]

My head hurts and I'm tired.

See yall tomorrow

[Seanzie]

hello

yo

[Creature]

I should prob stay away from this game.

I veto the tutuu wagon.

I prob won't oppose the sig wagon as much.

I'm doing Dennis mostly for tutuu and because I agree that he seems to be left off the hook too easily.

I'll give Sabi space for now.

Also I would like to know where you all stand on falcon.

[falcon45ca]

I don't think I care enough to catch up like 300 posts right now so hello thread

Okay looking at this page it's a bunch of wagon analysis which goes right over my head but I can try

So what is it that you're using to determine whether there are wolves on wagon or not?

If wagon analysis goes over your head typically, what's your preferred method to hunt wolves?

[falcon45ca]

Creature, Dennis & tutuu



All 3 major wagons, all 3 are on one of the 3 wagons

[RondoDimBuckle]

how do I respawn?

[Bereft]

Huh

[Porscha]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

Is it being ignored?

It's definitely a possibility, but I think it's a gamble I'd be very shaky on.

Tutuu's conviction towards alot of slots could very much be TMI.

The thing that may support this is that all of the slots Tutuu wrs are what I'd think are very *safe* and apply to people that are 1 unfamiliar or 2 often misread.

who in the wr's are you thinking of here? and how do you mean "safe"?

I've seen a wr on you, Roxy, Sig, Creature, and even I'm on the list in a 50/50.

I don't think that these players carry a thread weight as much as others we've had and still do (Mac and Seanzie for example). I.e. they are safe.

well i'm also tr'ing mac and sean. sig and creature i've expressed less than town reads on. so why are you using this against tutuu and not me?

[Dennis]

I don't think I care enough to catch up like 300 posts right now so hello thread

Okay looking at this page it's a bunch of wagon analysis which goes right over my head but I can try

So what is it that you're using to determine whether there are wolves on wagon or not?

If wagon analysis goes over your head typically, what's your preferred method to hunt wolves?

I wanna make a towncore, and then work around my PoE, my reads, and my towncore's reads to determine the most likely wolf. So like this:

Wilgy
Mac
Seanzie
Falcon
Sabi

Are the people I generally am choosing to trust. But, my vote is on tutuu because I personally have read her as scum. It's an experimental method for now but I have generally been right with picking town, and wrong with picking wolves out of PoE in my short career. It gives the people in towncore a sense of comraderie (or at least it does to me) and I think morale and teamwork are both important to solving a game

My towncore is small currently because I am being stingy with letting people in after I relooked at everyone after Roxy flipped

[Dennis]

Tutuu has, from my perspective:

- OMGUS voted me after I said just one thing about her potentially being bad

- Flipped on multiple of her townreads to make a team based around me being mafia, without my confirmed flip

- Refused to interact with me in any meaningful way after voting me

Seriously, how do I go from being so "pure" to being the worst scum of the earth in one post? And I am aware that tutuu has reached post limit and can't really react to this (which could've been an easy way out of talking but that's a whole other can of worms) but I still want to explain how things are from my point of view

[MacDougall]

Speak nerds

[Seanzie]

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

[tutuu]

Hi. I got 0 motivation for this game (im 10 posts over the post cap anyway). Creature is the one singular town whos willing to work with me and u guys are about to kill him. 7v5 is mech loss due to mafia having access to zealot and a 1-shot chop stopping card. So the game ends today essentially. do understand why tomorrow ill stop posting, assuming u guys chop creature and he flips town. Ive put enough effort for 10 people but enough is enough. I cant discern between wolves and wolfsiding town with bad reads, nor i can convince anyone anymore. fmpov if jack is town he's wolf mvp with his collected read accuracy and pushes.

eod is 3 am my time, im not staying up, won't be here to self-pres, so go wild

@Creature i loved playing with ya, and god bless. See u next game

overall i had a lot of fun this game guys. today was not fun but before that it was amazing. ggs

[tutuu]

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

[Bereft]

What happened to everyone?

[Seanzie]

What happened to everyone?

Nighttime in the US most likely?

[DrWilgy]

I should prob stay away from this game.

I veto the tutuu wagon.

I prob won't oppose the sig wagon as much.

I'm doing Dennis mostly for tutuu and because I agree that he seems to be left off the hook too easily.

I'll give Sabi space for now.

Also I would like to know where you all stand on falcon.

Are you finally flailing? idk, probably biased but seems like anti-spew to me boss. I don't find any reason behind the content you've been flinging at the wall this cycle now that the heat is up. That doesn't feel good.

Seanzie put Creature in the lead.

Tutuu tied it back to Sig.

I too will review vote count
D1

fingersplints: 8
Alison
Baudib1
Bereft
lucy
MacDougall
RondoDimBuckle
staypositivefriend
tutuu

Alison: 6
falcon45ca
fingersplints
Jackofhearts2005
Neon
Roxy
sig

Baudib1: 2
DrWilgy
Seanzie

Roxy: 2
Creature
Dennis

Dennis : 1
Kate

Missed the Vote: 1
Porscha

D2

Alison: 6
falcon45ca
Neon
Jackofhearts2005
tutuu
sig
Dennis

Baudib1: 1
Seanzie

Roxy: 4
Creature
Baudib1
lucy
Alison

staypositivefriend: 2
MacDougall
staypositivefriend

D3

Creature: 3
Sabiplz, DrWilgy, falcon45ca

Dennis: 1
Roxy

DrWilgy: 1
Baudib1

Roxy: 7
Porscha, Jackofhearts2005, Dennis, tutuu, Seanzie, lucy, Creature

staypositivefriend: 2
staypositivefriend, RondoDimBuckle

tutuu: 3
MacDougall, Bereft, sig

So immediately Mac's argument that the splints wagon was pure is kinda ridiculous, but I also don't see more than 1 wolf jumping to that wagon considering the other wagons that were avaliable.
Bereft
Mac
staypositivefriend
tutuu
Likely contains one I think.

Further d1, Alison was also unlikely pure, but as this was a sitting wagon it's possible that there's 1+ wolves here I think.
Falcon
Jackoffhearts
Sig

Not enough data to glean further from d1.

D2's strong data point is the Roxy wagon. This however, is hard to validate due to the moon I think. Do I think the D2 Roxy wagon could be pure MAYBE? Is my bias to the wolf Creature world too strong for me to think about this in an unbiased manner? Nope. Moving on.

D3 is far to spread out against results for me to pull anything conclusive here strictly from the votes, with the exception that I feel very ick about SPF when observing this. Finding and noticing that I hadn't realized SPF ended on themselves twice is just kinda bad.

I'll be taking a further look at SPF this afternoon and will validate my thoughts. SPF self voting twice and possibly being the unpure element on Splints is concerning. I do not feel confident voting alongside that slot on Creature.

Is there a world where it's
SPF
Sig
JoH
Mac/Seanzie
Porscha/Sabi

I will think on this and consider. I cannot post as much today as I think I have about 11 posts remaining.

[Bereft]

What happened to everyone?

Nighttime in the US most likely?

That didn't stop people yesterday.

[Bereft]

I'm at the point where I have to seriously consider SPF being a wolf especially if Kate/Tutuu aren't.

I don't remember how I'm supposed to read SPF properly.

[Bereft]

Its rather irritating that in all of this I have not been able to just lock falcon as town and move on.

[Bereft]

I also think Creature is just mafia based on tacit approval from @Seanzie that Creature is not being obvtown, too bad @Lucy has been out of commission forever to affirm this opinion.

So lets go on an adventure and read Creature's iso.

Also, are postcaps even enforced? No, right?

[Bereft]

If Sig and Creature are partnered, then I don't see any point in tutuu calling them out immediately.