The Syndicate

gg and thanks for hosting JPIC!

I’ll be gone for EoD. If Wilgy flips wolf, look at Roxy or Epi first. Nanook would be tinfoil level and not a first suspect. If Wilgy flips town, I think the game is harder than I expected and I’d look at Jack more closely. If Wilgy flips town I think our PoE is flawed.

If Nanook flips wolf I was probably wrong on Wilgy. If Nanook flips town I’d kill Wilgy unless there’s significant new evidence.

Abi, SVS, pyxxy, and Delta are town. If you need to reconstruct the PoE tomorrow then do it, but don’t include those four. Unless there’s significant new evidence I wouldn’t seriously consider them until lylo.

If I don’t survive the night, good luck town.

At this point Wilgy and Nanook aren’t both wolves. I don’t think Nanook parks all day on his partner.

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:18 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:17 pm I agree with Jack. Imo, Wilgy’s flip would tell more about how valid the PoE is than Nanook’s flip. Nanook feels like the shrug elim that tells us nothing here.
Wilgy is an okay flip but I feel like he's had more micro townie moments than what I've seen from Nanook, can you try sell me a little on that? I'll try find what I'm on about as well

To me I’ve seen more micro townie moments with Nanook. I think his approach to evaluating me d3 is good for him and him calling the red check incredibly based and just going with it was one of the better reactions imo. In a vacuum not taking into account my reads on anyone else I’d lean him town.

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:57 pm https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... r-Remix%29

@Thunal33 this is the game I'm on about above

I wont put anyone through the wonders of my ISO but if you check Wilgy's intro there vs here there's a pretty big difference

I can definitely see the difference, but I also played a game with wolf Wilgy where he only posted emojis for the first day phase. I think his range for what intros he can make is pretty big and not always AI.

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:18 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:17 pm I agree with Jack. Imo, Wilgy’s flip would tell more about how valid the PoE is than Nanook’s flip. Nanook feels like the shrug elim that tells us nothing here.
Wilgy is an okay flip but I feel like he's had more micro townie moments than what I've seen from Nanook, can you try sell me a little on that? I'll try find what I'm on about as well

What micro townie moments are you thinking of?

I agree with Jack. Imo, Wilgy’s flip would tell more about how valid the PoE is than Nanook’s flip. Nanook feels like the shrug elim that tells us nothing here.

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 12:52 pm
pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 12:45 pm Really what Thunal and you are asking is, if the thread is town-driven, as it appears to be, is that a good thing or a bad thing? And I think the answer to that is, well, are your poes true poes, as the definition goes? If you think your pool contains the scum, then town consensus is a good thing here and we're gonna win. If you're actually concerned about how you formed your poe, then talk to me about that.
I worry because I feel like my thoughts are less 'I genuinely feel this person can be mafia' and more 'I have no names left other than these guys' which is why I'm seeking second opinions & seeing how people reached the same conclusions I did, to see if there's anything I missed that could strengthen my own reads or maybe shed light on where I'm going wrong

I'm working through Jack's post right now so that'll have some of my own thoughts, though I feel he echoed a lot of the reasons I'm townreading people also which feels good for me. I'll ping you when I post it since that's what you wanted me to work through last night \o/

Yeah, it's mostly that the PoE is less towny rather than that they're wolfy. Wilgy is the only one I have reasons to actually think he's a wolf, and even there I'm not totally confident like I was when I was riding the high of LC's flip.

Delta, pyxxy, Abi, and SVS are all people who I'm basically townlocking at this point. Jack/Epi are the first places I'd look if the Wilgy/Roxy/Nanook PoE was wrong. Probably Epi before Jack.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 12:24 pm re: room for error, you mean how many chops we have left?

I meant town Roxy would have to believe in an exact solve of Wilgy/Nanook to believe the PoE is correct.

On second thought it might be a less easy game than I thought since Roxy's thoughts vibe fairly towny so I probably have to look outside the immediate PoE for one of the wolves. Sure, it makes sense for wolf Roxy to expand the PoE, but it also makes sense for town Roxy to expand the PoE since the current one leaves no room for error if she's town. She has to believe it's exactly Wilgy/Nanook.

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:45 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:32 am
Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:29 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 10:27 pm I feel very comfortable calling Abi, pyxxy, and Delta town. Epi and Jack are probably town but are my "hard game" tinfoils. SVS I almost feel comfortable townlocking and her being maf would take more tinfoil than Epi or Jack but I don't quite have the same confidence as with Abi, pyxxy, or Delta.

I have the same immediate PoE of Wilgy, Roxy, and Nanook.
you and Jack POE is the same but I have to ask you think all of the baddies are low posters? I am like middling but the others?
I have no sus of Wigly but Nook.....is another story
I think at least the maf have no control of the thread. Games where the maf can control the thread feel different from this. Delta and I are basically allowed to control the thread without a lot of challenge to that, and leetic was when they were alive. I'd expect more pushback if there were high posting mafia.

explain this better bc as it stands it is hitting me wrong. You do not think like someone is widely town read so they can just help "lead" the town? Like a pocket couldn't have happened or that the higher posting wolf is actually a great player?

All these things *could* have happened, sure. I don't think a pocket is unlikely but one that helps mafia control the thread effectively is unlikely at this stage imo. A great deepwolf is always possible but I don't think d3 after a mafia flip is the time to entertain that tinfoil.

Basically, I think it's an easy game unless it's proven that it's not.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:38 am
S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:36 am “Using”?

Yikes.
@Thunal33 that is really loaded language. Maybe leaning?

Sorry, it was what I thought of because it was in your post. I didn't mean that she was manipulating you or anything like that.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 6:27 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 11:11 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:16 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:30 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 2:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 1:48 pm Cook the goose!

Boil the duck!

Pepper the chicken!
Nice wagon you're joining. What will you do when I flip town?
Probably cry a little.

Maybe eat dinner. EoD is around that time.

Then look at your reads and see if they take me somewhere.

Oh also figure out who started the wagon on you.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:32 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm

Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine
I'll join you, better wagon than the current biggest one [VOTE: Jack] aubergine
Hell yeah, let's goooooo
If Jack is town, which I'm leaning that he is, this jump on looks terrible. Wilgy also took some time to say what would happen if leetic flipped town in response to their question isntead of something like "well you were red checked". He knew about the check, but if he didn't catch up a lot why would he know there was a real chance leetic would flip town?

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine
Why would my response to "what if I'm town" be "well your not"? That undermines the entire point of Lwetic asking me that.

Gross reason to vote me.
I don't like him jumping to saying this was a gross reason to vote me. When I showed my town entitlement in the thread he backed off pretty quick and I easily see him thinking I was unpushable.

About that post about me actually randing wolf, I feel like his thought would be stronger than "what if she randed wolf again" and that wasn't even his first thought.

I hope I don't switch between tunneling and cold feet on Wilgy all day tomorrow.
It's posts like this that kinda make me think he is town. He'll be licking people or only posting the words yes/no, and someone votes him for what he considers an invalid reason (and when you're town, is there ever a valid reason?) and he comes in and at them in this way.

Wilgy and LC had almost no interaction. LC asked him if he was gonna play and Wilgy kinda Wilgied it off. Normally this would be kinda red flaggish for me, but Wilgy actively interacts with teammates in thread, he's the best at that kind of distancing. I don't see LC/Wilgy as viable, even without the tell.

I think LC did use a disconnecting strategy with his partners though. While he spewed a couple people town (pyxxy and Abi) he didn't spew anyone wolf or have any interactions that stuck out to me as distancing. I feel like his teammate interaction was minimal.

Yes, I am afraid I'm Jack's honorary wolf partner today. I just feel like the PoE is tight and Jack's pyxxy vote, EoD behavior, and how he approached today are enough to make me not want to vote him. I have seen too wolfy to be a wolf people who are actually wolves - but generally not from a flipped mafia's end of not wanting to vote them.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 6:42 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 7:15 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 5:14 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:42 pm I want the solve to be "It's Wilgy because his play yesterday wrt my slot and Leetic's was bad and it's Roxy because she is trying to open up the POE by pushing Delta and myself (and Abby? maybe not) and it's not Nanook because he's relatively comfortable with the gamestate compared to the other two players in the POE and it's not anybody else because you are very smart, Jack, and you correctly townread everyone else for smart boy reasons."
Can you talk to me about these reasons? Even if it's just a brief thing for everyone, I'm at a somewhat similar point to what you are myself so I just want a sanity check if anything & a second voice to see where our thoughts differ \o/
Almost forgot to respond to this.

Abby - Town for the red peek thing that ultimately resulted in Long Con's death. Just generally you don't see wolves do crazy fancy pants plays to get their teammate killed. I disagree with Abby's worldview today but she's town.

Thunal - Early LC detractor. Her solving around my slot feels very honest. (I'm biased, here.) Went out of her way to get me to see SVS as town, ensuring LC was yeeted. Generally agree with most everything she's said, some before she says them and some by being convinced. Surely town.

SVS - This post is particularly townie https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 7#p1078007 but she's also just got some town mindset interactions with Leetic and Abby. She's tunneled on me but her push on me doesn't feel agenday. If Roxy is a wolf (likely through POE alone), Roxy and LC both voting SVS is a super good look.

Pyxxy - LC voting his teammate D1 in the way he did would be kinda weird. The case was actually bad, though. It made sense in a vacuum but after thinking about it for two seconds, it was just bad. Wolves don't tend to make up bad arguments against teammates. They just use real ones. In general, Pyxxy's solving around Abby has felt honest if misguided. I don't detect anything else that could even be construed as a wolf attempting to open the POE. Like he's flat defending me. Town.

Delta - You've seemed honest throughout the game. Your tone and mindset just look incredibly townie. You bounce votes and are sometimes like "wait no that's not where I should be voting actually" and it feels like an actual change in opinion, not some wolfy gear shifting. Being shaded by Roxy is a potential good look.

Epi - This is hard to explain. Sometimes both alignments Epi feels like he's treading water. This tends to be because of real life stuff so sometimes, I get suspicious of town Epi. I can't always read him. However, there's a thing he only does as town and that's when he looks like he's hunting for wolves. It's not about activity level or antagonism but a hunting attitude. You can see it in his posts about Long Con this morning like here https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 8#p1078548. There's a bit of it D1 as well like here https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 5#p1077815 where it feels like his investment is from a town mindset. And this post here https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 2#p1078262 reads as an honest town though. It's not impossible for Epi to be a wolf but I'd be super surprised if he was.

Jack - Shoes of a townie. YEAH!

So that's where I get to my pretty confident 3 player POE of Wilgy, Roxy and Nanook.

From there, Wilgy's play yesterday was pretty gross. His continuing to push me reads as a wolf who doesn't know what to do so is just hammering on the same points. Roxy looks like she's attempting to open the POE with dishonest pushes. Nanook is just like weeee whatever. So of my 3 player POE, I think 2 of them are doing scummy things and one is like existing.
That particularly towny post is also spectacularly wrong and kinda embarrassing. And yeah, bad SVS tries not to say pedantic lecturey things like that when she knows its wrong.

Roxy was in the hospital and she voted me becasue she knew I could deal with that. I 100000% think she would not do that if she were bad (I originally wrote "do that bad", I have to get that wording out of my head), use our irl friendship as a chip or ploy in a game. Nuh uh.

For reasons as stated in my last post, I also think Wilgy is not bad. I can't ever read nanook, he always comes across as kind and vaguely disinterested regardless of alignment, so I'll sheep Abigail on this.

And yeah, I guess i am tunnelling you. But lots of tunnels have a baddie at the end, and tunnelling by itself is not automatically wrong.

Also re pyxxys day one vote, if I don't want to end up on the townie, I vote a teammate when it's feasible to do so. Makes for excellent distancing on Day 3 when someone says, "LC voting his teammate D1 in the way he did would be kinda weird". Pyxxy isn't on my active radar, but that's a naive reason to exclude someone from suspish imo, kinda wifomy.

@Roxy can you confirm that your SVS vote was using your irl friendship? What did you mean by saying she'd know what you meant?

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:29 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 10:27 pm I feel very comfortable calling Abi, pyxxy, and Delta town. Epi and Jack are probably town but are my "hard game" tinfoils. SVS I almost feel comfortable townlocking and her being maf would take more tinfoil than Epi or Jack but I don't quite have the same confidence as with Abi, pyxxy, or Delta.

I have the same immediate PoE of Wilgy, Roxy, and Nanook.
you and Jack POE is the same but I have to ask you think all of the baddies are low posters? I am like middling but the others?
I have no sus of Wigly but Nook.....is another story

I think at least the maf have no control of the thread. Games where the maf can control the thread feel different from this. Delta and I are basically allowed to control the thread without a lot of challenge to that, and leetic was when they were alive. I'd expect more pushback if there were high posting mafia.

I feel like if Wilgy is mafia, it's with a low activity partner. I don't think he OMGUSes me if he has inside info that I'm not pushable from someone who's caught up on everything.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:16 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:30 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 2:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 1:48 pm Cook the goose!

Boil the duck!

Pepper the chicken!
Nice wagon you're joining. What will you do when I flip town?
Probably cry a little.

Maybe eat dinner. EoD is around that time.

Then look at your reads and see if they take me somewhere.

Oh also figure out who started the wagon on you.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:32 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine
I'll join you, better wagon than the current biggest one [VOTE: Jack] aubergine
Hell yeah, let's goooooo
If Jack is town, which I'm leaning that he is, this jump on looks terrible. Wilgy also took some time to say what would happen if leetic flipped town in response to their question isntead of something like "well you were red checked". He knew about the check, but if he didn't catch up a lot why would he know there was a real chance leetic would flip town?

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine
Why would my response to "what if I'm town" be "well your not"? That undermines the entire point of Lwetic asking me that.

Gross reason to vote me.

I don't like him jumping to saying this was a gross reason to vote me. When I showed my town entitlement in the thread he backed off pretty quick and I easily see him thinking I was unpushable.

About that post about me actually randing wolf, I feel like his thought would be stronger than "what if she randed wolf again" and that wasn't even his first thought.

I hope I don't switch between tunneling and cold feet on Wilgy all day tomorrow.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:21 pm Thems all my notifications...

I was going to vote Thunal and put a sleepy emoji indicative of me going back to sleep.

But then I thought "wouldn't it be funny if Thunal actually was W again" then I thought "I don't think Thun wants to be wolf, I shouldnt laugh at their potential misfortune" and now I feel bad. Thunal you have my support!

I may be back later. I may not. Who knows. I don't know. Someone please inform me.

I reread some of Wilgy's ISO and this one post is a decent look for him. Having this thought sequence about me being a wolf is easier than pretending to have this thought sequence.

Actually I might look into my tinfoils before Nanook if the game turns out to be hard. Nanook has some small tonal things that I think make him more likely town like his reaction to the redcheck and I think him sheeping me is a good look. Me giving my scum game link was a sort of reaction test to see if he hedged on me and he didn't which I think is slightly good.

I feel very comfortable calling Abi, pyxxy, and Delta town. Epi and Jack are probably town but are my "hard game" tinfoils. SVS I almost feel comfortable townlocking and her being maf would take more tinfoil than Epi or Jack but I don't quite have the same confidence as with Abi, pyxxy, or Delta.

I have the same immediate PoE of Wilgy, Roxy, and Nanook.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 7:32 pm
Roxy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 6:58 am I want to pull Delta quotes and Thunal quotes but I'd also like to ask LongCon why he ignored my responses to his posts.
I didn't ignore them, I read them. I just didn't have any follow-up, your answers were acceptable. I just looked back at them again and I don't have a follow-up for it, thank you for answering and I'm sorry you felt ignored. Abi's reveal kind of took over the mindscape a little probably.

I think this is a slight good look for Roxy btw. Her catchup looks fine, but I don't like her SVS vote or her "I'm bad, bye" post so she's in my PoE.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 5:51 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 9:29 am
S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 6:23 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:54 pm The reaction to the claim, especially the meta analysis on Abi I just think SVS actually believed.
Well yeah, there's zero reason for her to do that bad. Is there an issue with that?

I don't want to vote Wilgy, and I would prefer not to vote Roxy until I hear she's back in the saddle. Even if the game mod hadn't announced her problem, i don't believe Roxy is one to lean on irl to get out of a bad spot in games. So Roxy is off the table for me.

I'll do a more in depth thing, but i still think Jack and LC could have been associated.

I am reading LC, and am a bit confused about his time line.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 3:16 pm Surprised to see three votes on Jack right now, making him the leading wagon. Didn't realize he had picked up that kind of steam, especially now when he's looking better than ever.
"Better than ever?" that's an odd thing to say.

LC at 3:16, then he made a "busy bbl" later post like a minute later.

Next post is his vote post at 5:59:25, less than a minute to EOD. At that time, I had 2 votes, Roxy and Jack. Jack had two votes, Abigail and Wilgy. LC had 4 votes. So no vote he made could have been self pres. Had I not moved my vote from Jack, that might have been self pres.

At 5:59:36 Jack moved his vote from me to vanity. Not sure if moving to LC at that point would have been a good look since LC was already dead, basically, with 30 seconds left in day, and Thunal making a fairly big effort to point out how I likely wasn't bad, he didn't want to end up on me with the dead baddie when it was all over.

This feels a wee bit like a chatroom panic to me. I am not sure that that association I felt I saw with LC and Jack when I was reading Jack isn't actually there.

So imma reverse myself and [VOTE: Jack] aubergine again.

I'll read more tonight, and try to point out where I see the associations.
I'm a little confused by your first sentence. I just had the thought you seemed genuine in your Abi analysis and grabbed a post I read as towny.

I feel like this is an easier game, not a harder game. Jack knew LC was dying when he voted Wilgy, so the play as a wolf would just be to bus LC and ride the cred. Him making a big deal about not wanting to self pres on a townie as town makes him look so level 1 bad that I don't think it's a strategy for scum to win the game. I do have some tinfoil on him but I don't want to vote him today.
I worded it badly. It would read better as "Well yeah, there's zero reason for her to do that if she were bad". And it has been my experience that people who look too wolfy to be a wolf usually are wolves lol. Plus bussing LC after he clearly became the lynch leader looks performative and bad, I think voting LC would have been the worst vote he could have made with 20 seconds left in the poll.

I don't get why voting LC would look performative and bad. When there are a lot of votes, I'd think voting your partner at the last second would look a lot less conspicuous and a lot less bad than vanity voting.

Is it some Syndicate meta I don't know that jumping on late to a partner's wagon looks bad?

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 1:06 pm Thunal stop having more posts than me by like 5

Done, now it's 7.

I also like that Jack is sussing Wilgy today. I think he's the most likely wolf by a decent amount and should be the elim today. If he flips town, then I'd be more swayed to think the game isn't easy.

Roxy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 12:44 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:48 pm [VOTE: SVS] aubergine

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:50 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:49 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:48 pm [VOTE: SVS] aubergine
Is this in any way influenced by Roxy's vote on SVS?
Yes in that 2 votes are better than 1. Roxy didn’t like convince me to suspect SVS.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:59 pm That is kinda a townie post from SVS, isn’t it?

I did not sway your vote with mine yet-----2 votes are better than one? How is this townie? Your thought process over SVS did not feel genuine and felt instead like you trying to save LongCon's ass. You went in with a couple of pulled quotes from SVS and when Thunal showed you how it was so very townie you even agreed it was townie posts.
Jack you are bad and I find that sad bc as a townie you can decimate people with their posts and show just how anti town or townie they are. You have done neither this game.

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:51 pm [VOTE: SVS] aubergine

I'll mull over the LC vote overnight since I'm more than a little worried about that

I'm also worried ab SVS being town because that means I went and locked them town then panicked when it mattered which is

rough but shrug

EOD is stressful ;_;
This is the perfect example of Delta's play this game. Not digging it at all. Flip Floppy. Goes anywhere but LongCon until it was obv he was getting elimmed.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:59 pm Phone check-in. Not caught up but voting SVS to self-pres.
The only SVS vote I understand bc it is coming from a baddie toward a townie.

Afaik, Delta is more pro CFD than me and some other people in this list and I saw him get cold feet at EoD in his qualifier. He went back on LC when he didn't have to, he still pushed LC, and his thoughts for a lot of the game have been the same as mine even when I hadn't voiced the thoughts yet. I'm pretty comfortable calling him town.

Jack is in tinfoil territory for me. I don't think most wolves, under the pressure of EoD, continually resist either bussing LC or taking a hard stand defending him. I also don't think most wolves make the vanity vote he did for Wilgy. However, I agree there's not as much clearing for him as there is for the people in my towncore.

@Jackofhearts2005 you said you knew you were condemning LC to die with your vote on Wilgy, but were you concerned about last minute switches? LC wasn’t in the lead by much and someone could have switched from LC to you or SVS before you could react.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:33 pm I don’t even understand the case against LC.

This is a micro thing that looks good for Jack imo. Wolves have an easier time understanding cases on wolves, and I feel like wolf Jack would have chosen a different angle if he wanted to save LC.

@DrWilgy If you're town, show me by solving the game. Who do you think is a wolf that isn't me?

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 12:05 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:30 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 2:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 1:48 pm Cook the goose!

Boil the duck!

Pepper the chicken!
Nice wagon you're joining. What will you do when I flip town?
Probably cry a little.

Maybe eat dinner. EoD is around that time.

Then look at your reads and see if they take me somewhere.

Oh also figure out who started the wagon on you.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:32 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine
I'll join you, better wagon than the current biggest one [VOTE: Jack] aubergine
Hell yeah, let's goooooo
If Jack is town, which I'm leaning that he is, this jump on looks terrible. Wilgy also took some time to say what would happen if leetic flipped town in response to their question isntead of something like "well you were red checked". He knew about the check, but if he didn't catch up a lot why would he know there was a real chance leetic would flip town?

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine
Pretty sure he was around when I claimed. Also I don't see how this is a jump on when Wilgy voted the wagon first?

Wilgy parking there all phase just doesn't feel wolfy this isn't a wolf play this is town Wilgy not giving a fuck

I didn't realize he was first when I looked at his ISO last night. I don't think him parking there is towny? It felt more like he was trying to look good from the Leetic check situation and he didn't exactly check in much after that or have reason to change his vote when he did.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 6:23 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:54 pm The reaction to the claim, especially the meta analysis on Abi I just think SVS actually believed.
Well yeah, there's zero reason for her to do that bad. Is there an issue with that?

I don't want to vote Wilgy, and I would prefer not to vote Roxy until I hear she's back in the saddle. Even if the game mod hadn't announced her problem, i don't believe Roxy is one to lean on irl to get out of a bad spot in games. So Roxy is off the table for me.

I'll do a more in depth thing, but i still think Jack and LC could have been associated.

I am reading LC, and am a bit confused about his time line.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 3:16 pm Surprised to see three votes on Jack right now, making him the leading wagon. Didn't realize he had picked up that kind of steam, especially now when he's looking better than ever.
"Better than ever?" that's an odd thing to say.

LC at 3:16, then he made a "busy bbl" later post like a minute later.

Next post is his vote post at 5:59:25, less than a minute to EOD. At that time, I had 2 votes, Roxy and Jack. Jack had two votes, Abigail and Wilgy. LC had 4 votes. So no vote he made could have been self pres. Had I not moved my vote from Jack, that might have been self pres.

At 5:59:36 Jack moved his vote from me to vanity. Not sure if moving to LC at that point would have been a good look since LC was already dead, basically, with 30 seconds left in day, and Thunal making a fairly big effort to point out how I likely wasn't bad, he didn't want to end up on me with the dead baddie when it was all over.

This feels a wee bit like a chatroom panic to me. I am not sure that that association I felt I saw with LC and Jack when I was reading Jack isn't actually there.

So imma reverse myself and [VOTE: Jack] aubergine again.

I'll read more tonight, and try to point out where I see the associations.

I'm a little confused by your first sentence. I just had the thought you seemed genuine in your Abi analysis and grabbed a post I read as towny.

I feel like this is an easier game, not a harder game. Jack knew LC was dying when he voted Wilgy, so the play as a wolf would just be to bus LC and ride the cred. Him making a big deal about not wanting to self pres on a townie as town makes him look so level 1 bad that I don't think it's a strategy for scum to win the game. I do have some tinfoil on him but I don't want to vote him today.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 8:33 am Roxy eod vote on SVS probably deserves some of my attention.

Roxy is my top suspect not named Wilgy but I also could see her last two posts as weird but not wolfy. Based on what I know of her personality, the "I'm bad, bye" stuck out to me even more than the SVS vote.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 6:14 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:32 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:56 am This is apparently where I'm at right now. Feels weird, but it is what it is.

Epignosis
leetic

Dyslexicon

Jackofhearts2005
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Delta
Roxy

S~V~S
Thunal33
pyxxy
DrWilgy

Long Con

LinearPoint
Scotty
I also think continuing to sheep Seanzie is correct lol.
You keep saying this, but LP and Scotty were both town. I just skimmed you, but can you tl;dr me why you voted Wilgy? A Wilgy who floats and doesn't add much the first few days is generally town Wilgy in my experience. Plus he's said a few things that I tend to see as town Wilgy recently.

LP and Scotty being town is part of why I think it holds more weight. If Seanzie had 2 mafia in his townreads and only kind of scumread Long Con, mafia wouldn't have a lot of reason to kill him overnight. If he had 2 mafia PoEd (LC and someone else), mafia would have a lot more reason. I don't think every NK was killed for good reads but I think Seanzie probably was at least in part and sheeping him worked with Long Con.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 8:36 pm I lowkey don't think new approach thunal puts in the amount of work she has and buses a partner d2, so I'm clearing her town and sheeping her.

Yeah, I'd never put in a lot of work and bus a partner d2 in a recent game. Don't look at this link.

viewtopic.php?t=2552

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:56 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:53 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:46 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:33 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:21 pm Thems all my notifications...

I was going to vote Thunal and put a sleepy emoji indicative of me going back to sleep.

But then I thought "wouldn't it be funny if Thunal actually was W again" then I thought "I don't think Thun wants to be wolf, I shouldnt laugh at their potential misfortune" and now I feel bad. Thunal you have my support!

I may be back later. I may not. Who knows. I don't know. Someone please inform me.
Have you read anything? LC wouldn't have gone over if not for me vetoing the SVS wagon at EoD and I had my vote on him most of the phase.

No, I actually randed town this time. I think you're the one with the permawolf curse now.
Of course I haven't read you silly billy.

I've gleaned like a total of 20 posts kinda randomly.

Who was trying to vote SVS? SVS is quite literally the one person who I saw a post of and thought "oh they are civ"

Is your assumption of me permawolfing just off my interactions with JoH and Leetics?
SVS had a 3 vote wagon before EoD and was tied with Jack at one point. Jack, Delta, and Roxy were the voters at the peak.

That, PoE, and also I think sheeping Seanzie is a good idea. Maf would probably think there's no protection after LP's flip and I think Seanzie would have to have had pretty good reads to be killed over leetic. He didn't vibe as PR at all to me.

I'll lay off tunneling you for a bit and try to see who I can clear off EoD and LC's flip but the read is still there.
I see. Ok, Delta is no longer in my good little Gengar list. Jacks still wack. Roxy is Roxy and Roxy is Roxy.

LC also voted SVS at the last minute for self pres, but by then I think he was clearly in the lead.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:49 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:44 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:16 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:30 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 2:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 1:48 pm Cook the goose!

Boil the duck!

Pepper the chicken!
Nice wagon you're joining. What will you do when I flip town?
Probably cry a little.

Maybe eat dinner. EoD is around that time.

Then look at your reads and see if they take me somewhere.

Oh also figure out who started the wagon on you.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:32 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm

Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine
I'll join you, better wagon than the current biggest one [VOTE: Jack] aubergine
Hell yeah, let's goooooo
If Jack is town, which I'm leaning that he is, this jump on looks terrible. Wilgy also took some time to say what would happen if leetic flipped town in response to their question isntead of something like "well you were red checked". He knew about the check, but if he didn't catch up a lot why would he know there was a real chance leetic would flip town?

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine
Why would my response to "what if I'm town" be "well your not"? That undermines the entire point of Lwetic asking me that.

Gross reason to vote me.
It's more that you were considering Leetic would flip town during the check and afaik without having caught up on what Leetic posted. I personally was a bit too arrogant thinking leetic would flip maf because I thought the odds of the check being messed with were very low and I had a read Abi was telling the truth. I think others who had that confidence had townie reactions. Yours was more similar to Long Con's and imo you were too trusting of leetic.
I'm unsure what would've implied trust there? There was no trust my friend, just whim.

Lwetic told me to exercise what if they were town so I did. Then Leetics said JoH was scummy so on a whim I voted there. I had and have no reason why.

I just don't think this is how you act towards someone who is redchecked.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:46 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:33 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:21 pm Thems all my notifications...

I was going to vote Thunal and put a sleepy emoji indicative of me going back to sleep.

But then I thought "wouldn't it be funny if Thunal actually was W again" then I thought "I don't think Thun wants to be wolf, I shouldnt laugh at their potential misfortune" and now I feel bad. Thunal you have my support!

I may be back later. I may not. Who knows. I don't know. Someone please inform me.
Have you read anything? LC wouldn't have gone over if not for me vetoing the SVS wagon at EoD and I had my vote on him most of the phase.

No, I actually randed town this time. I think you're the one with the permawolf curse now.
Of course I haven't read you silly billy.

I've gleaned like a total of 20 posts kinda randomly.

Who was trying to vote SVS? SVS is quite literally the one person who I saw a post of and thought "oh they are civ"

Is your assumption of me permawolfing just off my interactions with JoH and Leetics?

SVS had a 3 vote wagon before EoD and was tied with Jack at one point. Jack, Delta, and Roxy were the voters at the peak.

That, PoE, and also I think sheeping Seanzie is a good idea. Maf would probably think there's no protection after LP's flip and I think Seanzie would have to have had pretty good reads to be killed over leetic. He didn't vibe as PR at all to me.

I'll lay off tunneling you for a bit and try to see who I can clear off EoD and LC's flip but the read is still there.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:16 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:30 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 2:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 1:48 pm Cook the goose!

Boil the duck!

Pepper the chicken!
Nice wagon you're joining. What will you do when I flip town?
Probably cry a little.

Maybe eat dinner. EoD is around that time.

Then look at your reads and see if they take me somewhere.

Oh also figure out who started the wagon on you.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:32 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine
I'll join you, better wagon than the current biggest one [VOTE: Jack] aubergine
Hell yeah, let's goooooo
If Jack is town, which I'm leaning that he is, this jump on looks terrible. Wilgy also took some time to say what would happen if leetic flipped town in response to their question isntead of something like "well you were red checked". He knew about the check, but if he didn't catch up a lot why would he know there was a real chance leetic would flip town?

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine
Why would my response to "what if I'm town" be "well your not"? That undermines the entire point of Lwetic asking me that.

Gross reason to vote me.

It's more that you were considering Leetic would flip town during the check and afaik without having caught up on what Leetic posted. I personally was a bit too arrogant thinking leetic would flip maf because I thought the odds of the check being messed with were very low and I had a read Abi was telling the truth. I think others who had that confidence had townie reactions. Yours was more similar to Long Con's and imo you were too trusting of leetic.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 8:37 pm Leetic nk also means lc wagon >rand clean btw. Maybe one maf at most but I want to assume easy game where it's clean.

I feel quite good about Delta. I have a slight tinfoil on Epi from his LC interactions, but I think I'll keep it in the back of my head and explore more simple options today.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:21 pm Thems all my notifications...

I was going to vote Thunal and put a sleepy emoji indicative of me going back to sleep.

But then I thought "wouldn't it be funny if Thunal actually was W again" then I thought "I don't think Thun wants to be wolf, I shouldnt laugh at their potential misfortune" and now I feel bad. Thunal you have my support!

I may be back later. I may not. Who knows. I don't know. Someone please inform me.

Have you read anything? LC wouldn't have gone over if not for me vetoing the SVS wagon at EoD and I had my vote on him most of the phase.

No, I actually randed town this time. I think you're the one with the permawolf curse now.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:56 am This is apparently where I'm at right now. Feels weird, but it is what it is.

Epignosis
leetic

Dyslexicon

Jackofhearts2005
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Delta
Roxy

S~V~S
Thunal33
pyxxy
DrWilgy

Long Con

LinearPoint
Scotty

I also think continuing to sheep Seanzie is correct lol.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 2:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 1:48 pm Cook the goose!

Boil the duck!

Pepper the chicken!
Nice wagon you're joining. What will you do when I flip town?
Probably cry a little.

Maybe eat dinner. EoD is around that time.

Then look at your reads and see if they take me somewhere.

Oh also figure out who started the wagon on you.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:32 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:27 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:21 pm Jack is the first person to defend me from a fake red check. I don't know if I should be happy or concerned
Oh.

Okie dokie. Let's yeet Jack

[VOTE: Jackoftarts] aubergine
I'll join you, better wagon than the current biggest one [VOTE: Jack] aubergine
Hell yeah, let's goooooo

If Jack is town, which I'm leaning that he is, this jump on looks terrible. Wilgy also took some time to say what would happen if leetic flipped town in response to their question isntead of something like "well you were red checked". He knew about the check, but if he didn't catch up a lot why would he know there was a real chance leetic would flip town?

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:22 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:20 pm I also think now is not the time to tinfoil Abi and she's said some borderline clearing things during her fight with leetic.
At least someone gets it

Honestly you should kill me today though

No. Rn I want to kill Wilgy today.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:19 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 7:18 pm I think LC spewed pyxxy town btw. Holding onto one statement of pyxxy's (the psy thing) and then latching onto my sus of it feels like he was struggling to find pyxxy scummy rather than having an abundance of scummy things pyxxy has done.

It comes from someone who has TMI pyxxy is town, not someone who has TMI pyxxy is mafia.
Orrrrr it comes from someone who is voting a teammate to try to get them deep but can't fake a good case for it

Rn I think it's a fairly easy game and I want to explore simple paths before tinfoily ones like this. It's possible LC can't fake a good case on scum!pyxxy, but it's more likely he can't fake a good case on town!pyxxy.

I also think now is not the time to tinfoil Abi and she's said some borderline clearing things during her fight with leetic.

I think LC spewed pyxxy town btw. Holding onto one statement of pyxxy's (the psy thing) and then latching onto my sus of it feels like he was struggling to find pyxxy scummy rather than having an abundance of scummy things pyxxy has done.

It comes from someone who has TMI pyxxy is town, not someone who has TMI pyxxy is mafia.

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 6:56 pm ALRIGHT brief rundown of EOD thoughts

pyxxy town, Jack town, Epi town, Thunal town (I wont tinfoil I promise (maybe))

Roxy probably also town?

Very torn on Abi right now, I feel like how she handled the check itself was townie but how she handled LC feels less so

& very worried about Nanook/Wilgy, SVS feels like more EOD nerves in hindsight

You don't get to tinfoil me, you haven't even seen my wolf game.

I was so happy after that flip and so nervous when LC claimed town RB. That was the longest few minutes ever.

LC > Jack > SVS order of preference

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 11:11 am Also, re your Roxy question @Thunal33 , I read Rox for tone and flow, and she, for the most part, had a good look for me that way. I haven't really read into her much.

Two posts stood out to me, but in retrospect I thought they were more of a good look for her than otherwise, although they didn't look that way to me initially. But since they both concerned me, I didn't put much thought into it since i know I dislike it when people make their suspicions about *them*, like how people interact with or talk about them. First, when i agreed with something Sean said about how both Scotty and Roxy said a similar thing regarding not voting for Delta. I agreed becasue I didn't think what they said was quite accurate, either. It turned into a nothing, since Scotty flipped town. But in her response to me, she said something along the lines of "get over it" directly to me, which took me aback a bit. It reminded me of what I did to her in Se7en, actually. Remember when she started getting a bit too astute, so i kinda snapped at her a bit, and she backed off? Like that. But, as I said, Scotty flipped town, so meh.

The other was when she said i was being quiet. That surprised me since I am not a high poster by any means, and only get loud when i think i have something to get loud about. But having a negative opinion of me doesn't make someone bad, especially someone I know well. I would expect her to be a bit more pockety with me, so in retrospect those looked like plusses for her to my eye.

I think she prolly had a rough start due to leetic getting right in her face as soon as she started posting, and then getting a bit bossy with her later. She got snappy back with him in a way I think she might have moderated if she were bad.

So she wasn't on my radar. I hope she was just being sarcastic.

This detail in her thoughts is also towny.

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