Lets break down Night 1 claims again.
Please dont skim or glaze over this post and work through it all.
I want to make a distinction between who is mechanically cleared and who is not.
We also need to make a distinction between individual internal POV and objective external POE, because we have no way of knowing whether your claim is real or not.
This might be important later when we get flips of specific people, because there ARE links that can be made. I suspect when I die, people will read this again.
We assume at least 1 mafia KP in the night.
Where did it go?
1. LC claims vest ping - unconfirmed
2. Benson claims save on Tutuu - unconfirmed
3. Alison claims save on Tim through RNG. - confirmed
4. Master Radishes dies. – confirmed
Now, Nutella claims Vigi Jan shot onto Master Radishes.
In this world, we need to try and find where the other KP went then.
LC claims ping, could be legit - unconfirmed
Alison could have saved Tim - unconfirmed
Benson could have saved Tutuu - unconfirmed
Unless mafia have more than 1KP at night, now it means Mafia and Nutella could NOT have stacked onto Master Radishes because LC claims ping. Where does the 3rd KP come from?
Now after Nutella claims the shot, and LC claims the ping, Hally claims they redirected Radishes to LC.
Why did Hally select Radishes? Would MR carry the factional KP? Meh, arguments re why they select MR. I can maybe buy it, sure.
Why did they redirect to LC instead of Bob or someone else? Meh, arguments for why LC, I can maybe buy it too. Not super great, but I am not wanting to suspect Hally yet. Remember, I hard townread Hally day 1.
Now lets break down their posts in order.
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:15 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:13 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:12 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:11 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:11 pm
I used my 1 shot doc on tutuu if we're all claiming everything
Hoping he was the MK?
No, I was.
wdym?
I mean they broke my vest.
you were informed of that?
ok radishes was a wolf then and you’re lock clear
@Timsup2nothin why did you lie about your peek?
Notice they LOCK CLEAR LC. How can they do this without mechanically confirming that MR was mafia. Hally cannot. It’s a pocket onto LC.
No info is out yet that proves MR was mafia.
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:16 pm
hard claim town redirector
i redirected radishes to long con last night. radishes was mafia and i jacked his kill
GOTTEM
Again, how does Hally know MR is mafia? They still don’t, nobody does. Even if Nutella is real, there is a 30% chance MR was town. If MR is town, LC is not cleared at all. Town Hally should be careful about lock clearing LC if they aren’t 100% sure that MR was mafia, however that throws shade on their self clearing claim.
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:27 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:25 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:23 pm
i love how i somehow redirected the maf kill to the one town with a vest
I mean uh
Given amount of town KP around having a vest isn’t necessarily clearing imo
it’s clearing because my role specifies that if i try to redirect mafia to another mafia my action will fail
my action went through, thus lc is town because radishes was not
So they claim LC is clear on the basis that their power would fail if it redirected mafia to mafia. Hally COULD clear LC from an internal POV if they knew MR was actually mafia. However nobody knows whether MR is mafia. Its all a guess on Hally’s part. Again, why do they clear LC here?
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:29 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:27 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:23 pm
i love how i somehow redirected the maf kill to the one town with a vest
Town redirector sounds so OP. Like isn't that just a wolf role usually.
Not calling you a liar (yet), but that role is whack to give to the town.
So does this mean that MR could only have submitted the kill? Like he couldn't be a PR otherwise that would've been redirected in stead, yeah? Perplexing.
how could i be lying
lc says his vest broke. i made radishes target him. radishes was carrying the kill and i made him kill lc
i’m literally lock clear
Again, we have zero corroboration that Hally even targeted MR in the first place.
LC can be both town or mafia, they aren’t necessarily linked to Hally, but their mafia equity goes up if Hally flips red.
Nutella can be both town or mafia, and aren’t necessarily linked to Hally, but their mafia equity also goes up if Hally flips red. I say these two are more linked, because they are both pushing hard for the world where MR is “obviously mafia”.
Trying to define the large but finite worlds with 1 mafia KP (might have missed a few)
• Nutella is town vigi and shot mafia MR. Mafia (not MR) shot town LC. Hally claim is fake because they claim redirected MR and they confirm the redriect worked.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot mafia MR. Mafia (not MR) shot town LC. Hally claim is real because they claim redirected MR but the redirect did nothing and they think the redirect worked.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot mafia MR. Mafia (not MR) shot town Tutuu (saved by Benson). Hally claim is fake because they claim redirected MR and LC is fake re ping.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot mafia MR. Mafia (not MR) shot town Tim (saved by Alison). Hally claim is fake because they claim redirected MR and LC is fake re ping.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot mafia MR. MP is carrying faction KP and shot town LC. Hally claim is fake because nothing to redirect.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot mafia MR. MP is carrying faction KP and shot someone else. Hally claim is real because they claim redirected MR to LC who claims ping.
Six worlds where Nutella is town vigi and shot mafia MR (not carrying KP). Hally can be mafia in 4 of 6 them, and LC mafia in 2 of them.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot town MR. Mafia shot town LC. Hally claim is real and and thinks they redirected to LC.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot town MR. Mafia shot town LC. Hally claim is fake.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot town MR. Mafia shot town Tutuu (saved by Benson). Hally claim is fake because they claim redirected MR and LC is fake re ping.
• Nutella is town vigi and shot town MR. Mafia shot town Tim (saved by Alison). Hally claim is fake because they claim redirected MR and LC is fake re ping.
Four worlds where Nutella is town vigi and shot town MR. Hally can be mafia in three of the four worlds, and LC mafia in 2 of them.
• Nutella is mafia and shot town MR. Mafia (not MR) shot town LC. Hally claim is fake.
• Nutella is mafia and shot town MR. Mafia (not MR) shot town Tutuu (saved by Benson). Hally claim is fake because they claim redirected MR and LC claim is fake re ping.
• Nutella is mafia and shot town MR. Mafia (not MR) shot town Tim (saved by Alison). Hally claim is fake because they claim redirected MR and LC claim is fake re ping.
• Nutella is mafia and shot town MR. Mafia (not MR) shot town LC. Hally claim is real and thinks they redirected KP to LC.
Four worlds where Nutella is mafia. Hally can be mafia in three of them, and LC can be mafia in 2 of them. Here Hally and Nutella are linked because Hally being town requires MR to actually have KP to redirect.
I have counted worlds where MR had no active KP role, mafia hit LC, and Hally *thinks* they redirected MR to LC, but from how they said their role works, I infer they would receive a message saying redirect failed – not too sure.
• Nutella is mafia and shot town MR (vigi). MR shot town LC. Hally claim is real KP was redirected to town LC.
• There is a world where Nutella is mafia and Hally is town, but this requires MR to be a town vigi, and we have too many vigis in this world.
Some of these worlds have Nutella, Hally AND LC being mafia. I don’t like those worlds because this means TSP rolled 5 mafia into the game. As such, we should discount those worlds too.
Then there is the world which everyone currently thinks is real and most likely
Town vigi Nutella hits mafia MP, which just happens to clean thekill, and MP just happens to be carrying faction KP, who also just happened to be targeted by town Hally who just happens to redirect to town LC who just happens to be BP.
This is the extremely neat little world that we are being force fed
The chance of THIS happening is the real tin foil imo, not one of the many many other possible words with any combo of fake claims contained therein. Everyone seems to be buying into it, and I don’t like it.
Hally claims this is a complicated fake claim and they couldn’t do it. I say this is nonsense, the claim is child’s play once Nutella claims the shot and LC claims the ping. It makes town look for one less mafia for a start (great) and then you are “cleared” from your claim.
There are ALL of these possible scenarios and Hally is saying Nutella is lock cleared and LC is lock cleared. This ONLY happens in the exact world explained above where MP was carrying faction KP.
Also -
Where are the fake claims in this game? Why would mafia just roll over and make weak claims and wait to be picked off one by one in POE while town all clear themselves? I haven’t played with most of this lobby, but from the sounds of it, its full of people who play in champs. I cant see a mafia team rolling over and waiting to die in POE. Especially on back to back hits of mafia. They need to go deep deep in the game to win. They need to hide. They need to try and clear themselves and watch town eat eachother. They need a credible clearing claim that puts them above suspicion.
Its possible Hally is just town and their reads were great and I am a giant PITA. What I dislike is how they keep saying they and various other people are LOCK clear from things where they simply are not. Its like gaslighting town by saying it over and over again to push them out of potential POE. If Hally were town, they wouldn’t be saying this imo.
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:22 pm
@Dyslexicon ppl incorrectly think you softed doc. can you tell them that you didn’t
can you also get in here we killed three wolves already and mech cleared like 5 ppl
life is good and i want u to be here to experience it
Nutella, Hally and LC are most certainly NOT mech cleared. At all.
Look at Hally’s iso. They keep repeating it like brain washing. They sussed Radishes, radishes was the kill, they redirect to LC, it clears Nutella and LC. Nothing is cleared and nothing is corroborated, except by LC’s ping claim.
Hally wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:26 am
Benson wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:22 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:16 am
there's a world where like
town has so much powerful roles
and mafia has low power roles
but its 5 of them. 5 mafia
and like there is a combination of mafia team combination like nutella + hally + LC (and MR being town) and it just makes my head spin
like, we should probably consider a world where there are 5 maf cuz it becomes a completely different game? idk, should we?
i mean look at all this town power
Tomorrow I'm going back to considering my theories where the wolves came in ready with their game changing fake claims.
Because we really shouldn't just base the rest of this game on those claims being legit. Like what if MR *was* town? We're probably fucked but I at least want to talk about it.
Anyways, good night.
if ppl start tinfoiling that me/nut/lc is the exact world and we all came up with fake claims to win as maf i like... dont know what to say
all three of us would have to be maf in that world
it’s not possible
Pushing agenda that this is tinfoil. There can be 0, 1, 2 or even 3 maf in this scenario. It absolutely does NOT need to be all 3 of them in on it. Its why it’s a good claim. You end up pocketing the town who corroborate your fake claim. Nutella could be town vigi and LC could have a vest pinged. Does not mean MR was mafia or that Hally redirected MR to LC or that MR was even mafia.
What I do know is that Dizzy has a sus on Hally and/or Nutella, and Dizzy has lots of meta on Hally.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:02 am
I feel the poe is wrong though. I don’t know proto’s alignment, but he really don’t seem like scum to me. I don’t know the reasons people are cleared or not, but something is probably wrong. Unless there actually is only one mafia left and that is randomly proto, but I have my doubts.
I would look into both Hally and Nut, but I don’t have much basis for that. I might be able to have a couple of hours with my computer this night, but I won’t say «wait for me» cause that’s not fair. Not your fault I don’t have minimal time to put into this game.
I tend to agree, something feels off here, and I want to look at Hally first. Not a kill, just a cop check.
Also, nobody has even tested Hally’s redirection power is real. One way to do this is to ask Hally to redirect from confirmed town to confirmed town. Maybe something like Tutuu to Nanook?
Why is this good? It helps to clear Hally partially, since currently there is currently zero corroboration for them even having this redirection power in the first place. Literally anyone can make this claim. It’s a free claim for mafia to make. At least by checking they have the power, it would have to mean that mafia rolled this power to begin with AND that Hally is fake claiming it.
Colin could also do this to confirm who Hally redirected.
TL;DR people regret not killing me already and wish I would shut up.
