not necessarily, no. i'm just not used to things feeling as clear as they feel to me right nowBereft wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:05 pmIs this supposed to be problematic?staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:04 pmi am struggling to come to a world where roxy/sig/jack/sabi/tutuu does not contain the majority of the wolfteamCreature wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:01 pmDo you agree both Roxy and sig are wolves? Where would you go next excluding me?staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 7:57 pm i dont really have a lot to say before the day ends
im here while multitasking at work if anyone wants to talk to me i guess
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Return to “Cartomancy [Game Over]”
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:07 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:06 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
the first season of alice in borderland was a lot of fun even though i havent watched the second season yetCreature wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:02 pmI recently finished watching Alice in Borderland and a few days ago I finished watching 1899.
I thought about starting Locke and Key season 3 but I feel like I should also be on the look out for a new non-animated series because I don't have any after Locke and Key.
if you dont mind horror then "midnight mass" is probably my favorite show currently on netflix
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:04 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
i am struggling to come to a world where roxy/sig/jack/sabi/tutuu does not contain the majority of the wolfteamCreature wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:01 pmDo you agree both Roxy and sig are wolves? Where would you go next excluding me?staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 7:57 pm i dont really have a lot to say before the day ends
im here while multitasking at work if anyone wants to talk to me i guess
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:00 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
i do too honestly
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 7:57 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
i dont really have a lot to say before the day ends
im here while multitasking at work if anyone wants to talk to me i guess
im here while multitasking at work if anyone wants to talk to me i guess
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 7:46 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
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- Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:53 pm
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
if roxy is mafia with any of sabi/wilgy/falcon then admittedly im not sure what theyre doing on the creature wagon instead of just voting for roxy
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:52 pm
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- Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:51 pm
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 1]
@Bereft -
there is a somewhat awkward shift between creature shotgun townreading roxy early on:
creature did not form a real scumread on roxy until roxy was being widely suspected, and prior to that point, he tried to defend her. roxy made a point of throwing out creature's name as a point of suspicion a few times but never really pursued the read further. i see no reason why they are incompatible
there is a somewhat awkward shift between creature shotgun townreading roxy early on:
to creature capitulating to the threadstate consensus that roxy is wolfy and pushing on her and calling her one of his top townreads
creature did not form a real scumread on roxy until roxy was being widely suspected, and prior to that point, he tried to defend her. roxy made a point of throwing out creature's name as a point of suspicion a few times but never really pursued the read further. i see no reason why they are incompatible
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:44 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
also yes, the outcome today has been obvious from the beginning and it seems to me that this was very bad for the gamestate in general, even if roxy is mafia
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:43 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
just a random thought but it occurred to me that i think the odds of tutuu being mafia are particularly higher than rondo or seanzie being mafia even though i have them lower in my list of townreads
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:42 pm
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- Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:16 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
i will be here for the last hour of the day but pretty much not at all beyond that
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:16 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
[VOTE:
creature] aubergine
yolo
yolo
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:36 am
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- Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:14 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
and why do you think falcon is town? i don't see a clear explanation of it in your ISO
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:07 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
oh wait i just saw that jack is actually giving control over his vote to me, falcon, and tutuu and not me and mac? @Jackofhearts2005 - why did u include falcon specifically?
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:06 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
i think it's towny in a world where roxy is mafia (which is a world i perceive as very likely rn) because jack is positioning himself to push on creature over roxy but is still giving me and mac control over his voteRondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:59 ampls explainstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:52 amok i think this post is towny maybeJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:58 am So like I’m massively pinged by Creature. SPF and Mac have made meta cases against Creature. I want to yeet Creature. The closest thing I have to a reason not to do this is recently being wrong on Alison and a probably illogical worry that I’m going to receive more pressure and have less thread pull with a t!Creature yeet than a t!Roxy yeet. This does not override my scumread but it is in my brain.
Alison said to yeet Roxy. Roxy has done fuck all. Roxy has scum equity w/Creature. I want to yeet Roxy but given I haven’t read any Roxy posts that I didn’t specifically go looking for in her iso and given her very short iso, I don’t feel as confident there as I feel on Creature.
I’m hoping these are both wolves and it doesn’t fucking matter but in the spirit of working with my townreads to make them more affective, fucking order me from one wagon to the other as you will @staypositivefriend @falcon45ca @tutuu.
This is also partly so I don’t get SPF twisting herself in a knot trying to figure out if I’m bussing or distancing or saving or whatever.
I also wanna yeet Rondo but it’s not the ideal play today. I’m just saying. Rondo bad.
or, in other words, if roxy is mafia, then i see no reason why her partners would not be widely pushing her/POE'ing her right now. "roxy is the elimination today" has felt like the unspoken consensus to me, and i think wolves would be aware of that as well
so, jack positioning himself in a way that looks bad if roxy is mafia (because he's saying he wants to kill creature over roxy) but still putting himself in a position where he might be forced to vote roxy anyway )because he will vote with me/mac) feels unstrategic/unagenda'd in a way that i find towny
if roxy is town then i guess i still find the sentiment of "i will let mac/spf control my vote" towny but maybe a bit less
- Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:52 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
ok i think this post is towny maybeJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:58 am So like I’m massively pinged by Creature. SPF and Mac have made meta cases against Creature. I want to yeet Creature. The closest thing I have to a reason not to do this is recently being wrong on Alison and a probably illogical worry that I’m going to receive more pressure and have less thread pull with a t!Creature yeet than a t!Roxy yeet. This does not override my scumread but it is in my brain.
Alison said to yeet Roxy. Roxy has done fuck all. Roxy has scum equity w/Creature. I want to yeet Roxy but given I haven’t read any Roxy posts that I didn’t specifically go looking for in her iso and given her very short iso, I don’t feel as confident there as I feel on Creature.
I’m hoping these are both wolves and it doesn’t fucking matter but in the spirit of working with my townreads to make them more affective, fucking order me from one wagon to the other as you will @staypositivefriend @falcon45ca @tutuu.
This is also partly so I don’t get SPF twisting herself in a knot trying to figure out if I’m bussing or distancing or saving or whatever.
I also wanna yeet Rondo but it’s not the ideal play today. I’m just saying. Rondo bad.
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:28 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
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- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
^^here is the part just about jack with better formatting if anyone has any thoughts they can give me, since this is the main things i want opinions on rn anywaystaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:45 pm i perceive the following to be true about jack:
1.he consistently projected an extremely confident and assertive worldview where alison was his primary scumread
2. his reasoning for scumreading alison was primarily based on stuff that is more personality-indicative for her than alignment-indicative for her, which concerns me because my understanding is that jack knows alison very well
3. even if i accept that jack’s reasoning for scumreading alison was valid, his confidence about his read being correct was not proportional to his solving. the reasoning that he outlined, even if taken at face value, does not seem like it logically concludes to a worldview of: “alison is outed mafia and she must die by any means necessary”
4. jack’s worldview outside of alison was fairly narrow and he did not really speak at length about many other players at all
5. baud, who i perceive to be a good scumhunter, was extremely confident about jack being mafia
6. in spite of being in the position of being widely POE’d, jack has not seriously been in contention for the elimination today (at least that’s my perception - there was a wagon on him at the start of the day but then it dissipated rather quickly)
now, on the other hand, it’s true that:
1. there is not really an obvious or coherent scum strategy behind jack playing the way that he did as mafia. he would be guaranteed to look very bad whenever alison flipped, or guaranteed to draw alison’s ire to an extent that alison would get him eliminated
2. his posts today are townier than the rest of his ISO, at least on a tonal level
so, looking through these reasons……i kind of think that jack just might be mafia? i honestly need someone to talk me down from why. why should i not be scumreading jack right now? what am i missing?
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:20 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
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- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
my frustration right now is less about being voted and more about what i perceive as a general lack of communication, which is an issue that extends beyond my slot. i am cranky and tired right now so i should probably stop posting until i get some sleep
that said i would appreciate if anyone who is around can read through the wallpost i made earlier on this page and give me any thoughts they have. i would find it helpful for my own solving rn
that said i would appreciate if anyone who is around can read through the wallpost i made earlier on this page and give me any thoughts they have. i would find it helpful for my own solving rn
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:14 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
also i find it extremely difficult to believe that falcon saying that me taking a few paragraphs to explain my townread on mac to seanzie after seanzie expressed a lot of concern about my read on mac being shallow constitutes "wolfy appeasement". that's a really really bad post
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:13 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
can you respond to a single thing that i said on this page or do u just not want to play the game with me rnSeanzie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:12 pmI also usually enjoy myself when I have no more than two votes in 16 players. Sometime I even enjoy myself with 3+ votes.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm this is a great game with solid communication and im fully enjoying myself
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
this is a great game with solid communication and im fully enjoying myself
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
that's cool i love it when people vote for me without talking to me or responding to anything i say
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:00 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
also i dont think this is how mac reacts to pressure as a wolf in most worldsMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:28 pmI have gone after the scummy players in this game. The same players that the town such as Alison, Baudib1 and probably Bereft have. Your obsession with the idea that they are LHF is weird. Who are these so called LHF that I've exclusively gone after. I want names. I want you to tell me how they are LHF, how LHF =/= mafia. If you want to say Fingersplints I'll give you 7 other names that voted FIngersplints. If you want to hang me because I miscued on a Fingersplints counterwagon to try to save Alison on day 1, then that's again, absurd. You are not attempting to read motivation at all. What is the mafia motivation for me to do that when the wagons at the time I did it were tvt Alison v Baudib1. It makes no sense. I clearly was trying to do what I felt was right for the town.Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:45 amIt isn't just about numbers. Mac has almost exclusively gone after LHF in wolfy ways and our ship has felt rudderless, even through most of D1.tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:39 amthis is essentially day 2
we have had 1 chop on a slanker - finger. the other chops were artificial
and zero meaningful night kills - no n1, and randed n2
if this was a natural mafia game and mac was alive for so long - day 3, with no dead wolves - sure
but this isnt a natural game, iss a role madness with crazy stuff impacting flips, take it into account plx
our numbers are bad coz i think the setup is a tad scumsided (we might lose 2 chops to godfather immunity and a 1-shot chop-prevention card) and/or we suck but this is still the early game
The fact that Mac is trying to pretend like he doesn't have blood on his hands from the Alison wagon also looks bad IMO. If town!Mac just didn't realize the moon card would have been played and not realized how his D2 play would be taken advantage of, I think he'd own up to it and move on. Instead when I've pushed him about it, he pretends like it didn't happen and doesn't engage with the idea.
He's also tried to deflect me in ways that remind me of how he deflected me in GoC2021.
You say the gamestate is rudderless. You have been inhibiting my influence with this constant push. You are causing my influence to be a certain way and then scumreading me for something of your own cause.
I am not trying to pretend anything. I already literally said that sussing me for day 2 is fine. Literally. You are at a point where you're so confirmation biased that you are not even reading posts. You're just living in a fantasy world where you've caught the big Mac and are a hero and it's clouding everything about your judgement towards me, giving the mafia a free pass to pocketing me and essentially making this day pointless.
I am not posting again today.
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:56 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
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- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:56 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
seanzie i think it's valid to say that i haven't tried particularly hard to explain why i townread mac in this game or how i'm getting a read on him general. i guess i want to clarify that:
A. i perceive mac to be one of the easiest players to read in this game. i have been horribly wrong about mac quite recently but broadly speaking i am usually able to tell the difference between his alignment somewhat easily and i have also been able to correctly scumread him every time he has randed wolf against me (which tbf, i think is only like twice)
the fact that i feel confident about my ability to read mac relative to the rest of this playerlist means that i have subsquently put less effort into explaining my thoughts about him, but in short:
-mac has consistently shifted and flip-flopped and changed his worldview, even at points when it would not be strategically beneficial for him to do so. for example, why does wolf!mac suddenly shift his positioning on alison yesterday and call alison mafia when he was previously positioned as someone defending alison? alison likely would have gone down without his influence anyway, so it makes more sense for mac!wolf to stick to defending alison to look good from her flipping town instead of making himself look bad by calling alison mafia right before she died
-mac as town is extremely unconfident about his ability to read me and also tends to scumread me for breathing. this aligns with mac insisting that his legacy read on me should NOT be used for me to defend myself, with him randomly voting me and calling me mafia yesterday, with him grilling me about specific stuff (ie: "why can't seanzie just be right?"). this is theoretically possible for mac to fake as a wolf but he has treated me in a way that aligns with the way i would expect him to be treating me as town
-i think that mac struggles to make some of the posts he has made today as a wolf, including his general alienation from the gamestate and the way that he lost his temper earlier
yeah idk i just think he's town. i might not be able to explain it more coherently than that. anything else i have to say was already said by bereft
A. i perceive mac to be one of the easiest players to read in this game. i have been horribly wrong about mac quite recently but broadly speaking i am usually able to tell the difference between his alignment somewhat easily and i have also been able to correctly scumread him every time he has randed wolf against me (which tbf, i think is only like twice)
the fact that i feel confident about my ability to read mac relative to the rest of this playerlist means that i have subsquently put less effort into explaining my thoughts about him, but in short:
-mac has consistently shifted and flip-flopped and changed his worldview, even at points when it would not be strategically beneficial for him to do so. for example, why does wolf!mac suddenly shift his positioning on alison yesterday and call alison mafia when he was previously positioned as someone defending alison? alison likely would have gone down without his influence anyway, so it makes more sense for mac!wolf to stick to defending alison to look good from her flipping town instead of making himself look bad by calling alison mafia right before she died
-mac as town is extremely unconfident about his ability to read me and also tends to scumread me for breathing. this aligns with mac insisting that his legacy read on me should NOT be used for me to defend myself, with him randomly voting me and calling me mafia yesterday, with him grilling me about specific stuff (ie: "why can't seanzie just be right?"). this is theoretically possible for mac to fake as a wolf but he has treated me in a way that aligns with the way i would expect him to be treating me as town
-i think that mac struggles to make some of the posts he has made today as a wolf, including his general alienation from the gamestate and the way that he lost his temper earlier
yeah idk i just think he's town. i might not be able to explain it more coherently than that. anything else i have to say was already said by bereft
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
also i think my order of the bottom 3 would actually be sig > roxy > jack but i put jack at the bottom in a moment of passion
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
i would appreciate thoughts about my read on jack in particular
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:47 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
lucy
mac
bereft
seanzie
tutuu
rondo
dennis
falcon
wilgy
porscha
sabi
creature
roxy
sig
jack
a very GTH sorting of the game from towniest to scummiest
mac
bereft
seanzie
tutuu
rondo
dennis
falcon
wilgy
porscha
sabi
creature
roxy
sig
jack
a very GTH sorting of the game from towniest to scummiest
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:45 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
i think bereft is most likely town because:
-the read feels a tad bit outdated now, but i think the way that he engaged me early into the game came from a town indicative thought process (ie: bereft projecting his view of the game on to me, then interrogating me while purporting to rep a secret townread on me). there was a level of complexity to the way he tried to figure out my alignment that made me believe he was putting real thought into solving
-he is consistently pointing out the same things that i’m noticing before i say them, which is admittedly an easier tell for a wolf to fake, but it stands out to me that even though he is being reserved with the evaluations that he chooses to make, the evaluations tend to specifically align with stuff that i’m already thinking about. for example, him pointing out that the way sig cast suspicion onto what i could call the ~towncore~ on #735 was wolf indicative, or him pointing out that it was scummy for porsche to say she wanted to look further into baud abd bereft
i also want to push back on the implication that seanzie made in his wallpost that i should be more cautious about reading bereft just because he is a good/experienced player who might be a really strong wolf. i don’t believe in raising the level of towniness for strong players because that is how you end up POEing the strong players every single game. it is much more interesting to try your hardest to read the strong players and then learn how to read them better in the future if you’re wrong. at any rat
as for creature, i do maintain the concerns about him that:
-he is forming conclusions too quickly
-his conclusions are too confident
and i dont want to imply that it’s not possible for creature to be confident as town, but reading through how he was constantly doubting himself and changing his mind and projecting uncertainty as town in da bois game vs this game where he has a VERY well defined and clear POE with solid scumreads makes it hard for me to shake the feeling that he might just be playing from a position of TMI
i think even creature saying “im not going to touch mac or SPF for a while” earlier today is out of character for him, because this is the exact phase in the game where i aqnticipate that creature, as town, would start to get paranoid of me or mac for not having any plets. in the fact, the post creature just made a bit ago where he said i might be mafia is the closest thing he has done today that aligns with my understanding of creature’s towngame
so yeah idk, i still do maintain the general feeling that creature might Just Be Mafia, especially as the number of people that im townreading is increasing and my POE is starting to dwindle, but i also acknowledge that i’m having a hard time letting go of this read because i want to have been right aout my push on him on d1 tbh
i know that it’s theoretically possible for someone in their 3rd mafia game to just play really well, but im inclined to think that dennis would struggle to fake the level of comfort he has consistently projected if he was mafia in a playerlist like this
i also thought it was towny that he responded to roxy pushing on him by saying “roxy’s case on me makes sense” because i think the reaction of inexeprienced wolves tends to be more aggressive instead of acknowledging that the person pushing on u has a point. i also think that the way he randomly became self-aware about his lack of read on creature and tried to address it indicates to me that he is putting real thought into his reads
so yeah i think the most simple explanation is that he’s proly just town
i perceive the following to be true about jack:
1.he consistently projected an extremely confident and assertive worldview where alison was his primary scumread
2. his reasoning for scumreading alison was primarily based on stuff that is more personality-indicative for her than alignment-indicative for her, which concerns me because my understanding is that jack knows alison very well
3. even if i accept that jack’s reasoning for scumreading alison was valid, his confidence about his read being correct was not proportional to his solving. the reasoning that he outlined, even if taken at face value, does not seem like it logically concludes to a worldview of: “alison is outed mafia and she must die by any means necessary”
4. jack’s worldview outside of alison was fairly narrow and he did not really speak at length about many other players at all
baud, who i perceive to be a good scumhunter, was extremely confident about jack being mafia
5. in spite of being in the position of being widely POE’d, jack has not seriously been in contention for the elimination today (at least that’s my perception - there was a wagon on him at the start of the day but then it dissipated rather quickly)
now, on the other hand, it’s true that:
1. there is not really an obvious or coherent scum strategy behind jack playing the way that he did as mafia. he would be guaranteed to look very bad whenever alison flipped, or guaranteed to draw alison’s ire to an extent that alison would get him eliminated
2. his posts today are townier than the rest of his ISO, at least on a tonal level
so, looking through these reasons……i kind of think that jack just might be mafia? i honestly need someone to talk me down from why. why should i not be scumreading jack right now? what am i missing?
i don’t really believe that the township from kate that alison pointed out is legitimate or good reasoning to read into. i am ambivalent about kate and sabi’s posts beyond that. that said, i am going out of my way to give sabi space today because i know that:
1. they tend to struggle and become overly fixated on pressure when ppl push on them
2. they are extremely good at projecting town when they get comfortable in the gamestate
so i think the best way to read sabi rn is to let them do their thing for a while and then revisit if they arent as towny if they are capable of being
im really really tired so im going to rush the rest of this post
i don’t really townread porscha yet and the main thing holding me back is mac claiming that he thinks she’s locktown
i lean town on rondo for various reasons, the main one actually which revolves around the way that he played around the PR claims on d1 (dont think that there is an obvious wolf incentive or motivation for him to draw attention to himself like that in the way that he did) and the fact that i perceive him as one of the most prominent players in the game rn actively trying to solve the game (like his progression on bereft today)
falcon idk
wilgy idk
^dont let me get away with a null read on these two players past today please because they feel important to solve i just havent really processed many of their posts and theyve kinda flown past me
roxy can be mafia whatever
i townread seanzie even more for the stuff he posted about me/mac/bereft over the last page
i still townread mac
sig is scum probably. his posts actively ping me the most out of everyone who has posted today and he feels overly fixated on how the rest of the thread of perceiving him and his perspectives often feel like they are made wiith the specific intent to bring paranoia into the thread
tutuu is town but if im misreading someone in my stronger townreads then it’s probably her bcuz i am mostly just clearing her off of passion/energy/depth of thought and i dont really have any specific reasons to feel good about her in the same way that i do mac/bereft/etc
-the read feels a tad bit outdated now, but i think the way that he engaged me early into the game came from a town indicative thought process (ie: bereft projecting his view of the game on to me, then interrogating me while purporting to rep a secret townread on me). there was a level of complexity to the way he tried to figure out my alignment that made me believe he was putting real thought into solving
-he is consistently pointing out the same things that i’m noticing before i say them, which is admittedly an easier tell for a wolf to fake, but it stands out to me that even though he is being reserved with the evaluations that he chooses to make, the evaluations tend to specifically align with stuff that i’m already thinking about. for example, him pointing out that the way sig cast suspicion onto what i could call the ~towncore~ on #735 was wolf indicative, or him pointing out that it was scummy for porsche to say she wanted to look further into baud abd bereft
i also want to push back on the implication that seanzie made in his wallpost that i should be more cautious about reading bereft just because he is a good/experienced player who might be a really strong wolf. i don’t believe in raising the level of towniness for strong players because that is how you end up POEing the strong players every single game. it is much more interesting to try your hardest to read the strong players and then learn how to read them better in the future if you’re wrong. at any rat
as for creature, i do maintain the concerns about him that:
-he is forming conclusions too quickly
-his conclusions are too confident
and i dont want to imply that it’s not possible for creature to be confident as town, but reading through how he was constantly doubting himself and changing his mind and projecting uncertainty as town in da bois game vs this game where he has a VERY well defined and clear POE with solid scumreads makes it hard for me to shake the feeling that he might just be playing from a position of TMI
i think even creature saying “im not going to touch mac or SPF for a while” earlier today is out of character for him, because this is the exact phase in the game where i aqnticipate that creature, as town, would start to get paranoid of me or mac for not having any plets. in the fact, the post creature just made a bit ago where he said i might be mafia is the closest thing he has done today that aligns with my understanding of creature’s towngame
so yeah idk, i still do maintain the general feeling that creature might Just Be Mafia, especially as the number of people that im townreading is increasing and my POE is starting to dwindle, but i also acknowledge that i’m having a hard time letting go of this read because i want to have been right aout my push on him on d1 tbh
i know that it’s theoretically possible for someone in their 3rd mafia game to just play really well, but im inclined to think that dennis would struggle to fake the level of comfort he has consistently projected if he was mafia in a playerlist like this
i also thought it was towny that he responded to roxy pushing on him by saying “roxy’s case on me makes sense” because i think the reaction of inexeprienced wolves tends to be more aggressive instead of acknowledging that the person pushing on u has a point. i also think that the way he randomly became self-aware about his lack of read on creature and tried to address it indicates to me that he is putting real thought into his reads
so yeah i think the most simple explanation is that he’s proly just town
i perceive the following to be true about jack:
1.he consistently projected an extremely confident and assertive worldview where alison was his primary scumread
2. his reasoning for scumreading alison was primarily based on stuff that is more personality-indicative for her than alignment-indicative for her, which concerns me because my understanding is that jack knows alison very well
3. even if i accept that jack’s reasoning for scumreading alison was valid, his confidence about his read being correct was not proportional to his solving. the reasoning that he outlined, even if taken at face value, does not seem like it logically concludes to a worldview of: “alison is outed mafia and she must die by any means necessary”
4. jack’s worldview outside of alison was fairly narrow and he did not really speak at length about many other players at all
baud, who i perceive to be a good scumhunter, was extremely confident about jack being mafia
5. in spite of being in the position of being widely POE’d, jack has not seriously been in contention for the elimination today (at least that’s my perception - there was a wagon on him at the start of the day but then it dissipated rather quickly)
now, on the other hand, it’s true that:
1. there is not really an obvious or coherent scum strategy behind jack playing the way that he did as mafia. he would be guaranteed to look very bad whenever alison flipped, or guaranteed to draw alison’s ire to an extent that alison would get him eliminated
2. his posts today are townier than the rest of his ISO, at least on a tonal level
so, looking through these reasons……i kind of think that jack just might be mafia? i honestly need someone to talk me down from why. why should i not be scumreading jack right now? what am i missing?
i don’t really believe that the township from kate that alison pointed out is legitimate or good reasoning to read into. i am ambivalent about kate and sabi’s posts beyond that. that said, i am going out of my way to give sabi space today because i know that:
1. they tend to struggle and become overly fixated on pressure when ppl push on them
2. they are extremely good at projecting town when they get comfortable in the gamestate
so i think the best way to read sabi rn is to let them do their thing for a while and then revisit if they arent as towny if they are capable of being
im really really tired so im going to rush the rest of this post
i don’t really townread porscha yet and the main thing holding me back is mac claiming that he thinks she’s locktown
i lean town on rondo for various reasons, the main one actually which revolves around the way that he played around the PR claims on d1 (dont think that there is an obvious wolf incentive or motivation for him to draw attention to himself like that in the way that he did) and the fact that i perceive him as one of the most prominent players in the game rn actively trying to solve the game (like his progression on bereft today)
falcon idk
wilgy idk
^dont let me get away with a null read on these two players past today please because they feel important to solve i just havent really processed many of their posts and theyve kinda flown past me
roxy can be mafia whatever
i townread seanzie even more for the stuff he posted about me/mac/bereft over the last page
i still townread mac
sig is scum probably. his posts actively ping me the most out of everyone who has posted today and he feels overly fixated on how the rest of the thread of perceiving him and his perspectives often feel like they are made wiith the specific intent to bring paranoia into the thread
tutuu is town but if im misreading someone in my stronger townreads then it’s probably her bcuz i am mostly just clearing her off of passion/energy/depth of thought and i dont really have any specific reasons to feel good about her in the same way that i do mac/bereft/etc
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:54 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:53 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
major pet peeve of mine when people say stuff like the bolded when it barely 12 hours into the phase. if you are interested in solving my alignment you should engage with any of the content i have posted today instead of saying that i have "dropped off" because i posted 20 times in the first 12 hours instead of 30 times
ill be around later this evening to expand on my general worldview
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:44 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
because i do not think you are mafia even if there exists a theoretical world in which you are playing significantly townier than every wolfgame i have seen from ouMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:28 amand why is he not just correct?staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 6:56 am cant sleep and wanted to share the stray thought that out of all the people who have pushed/shaded mac, seanzie is the towniest of them. his read on mac has a level of specificity (ie: him comparing mac to his wolfgame in GoC, him accusing mac of trying to destroy his WIM, him accusing mac of sharing responsibility for the alison wagon) that make me think he is putting real thought into mac's alignment, and the way he has kind of dug in his heels on his mac read upon being pressured makes me think that the conviction behind his real is real
i think a world where seanzie is a wolf pushing on mac only really makes sense to me if the rest of his team is cornered and he doesn't have many other viable options, but even in that world, i would expect seanzie to be a little bit more strategic about the way that he's pushing mac instead of just loudly insisting he's mafia in the most brazen way possible
i have no idea what seanzie's wolf meta is like so im open to other thoughts but yeah
btw porscha is lock town now
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 6:56 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
cant sleep and wanted to share the stray thought that out of all the people who have pushed/shaded mac, seanzie is the towniest of them. his read on mac has a level of specificity (ie: him comparing mac to his wolfgame in GoC, him accusing mac of trying to destroy his WIM, him accusing mac of sharing responsibility for the alison wagon) that make me think he is putting real thought into mac's alignment, and the way he has kind of dug in his heels on his mac read upon being pressured makes me think that the conviction behind his real is real
i think a world where seanzie is a wolf pushing on mac only really makes sense to me if the rest of his team is cornered and he doesn't have many other viable options, but even in that world, i would expect seanzie to be a little bit more strategic about the way that he's pushing mac instead of just loudly insisting he's mafia in the most brazen way possible
i have no idea what seanzie's wolf meta is like so im open to other thoughts but yeah
i think a world where seanzie is a wolf pushing on mac only really makes sense to me if the rest of his team is cornered and he doesn't have many other viable options, but even in that world, i would expect seanzie to be a little bit more strategic about the way that he's pushing mac instead of just loudly insisting he's mafia in the most brazen way possible
i have no idea what seanzie's wolf meta is like so im open to other thoughts but yeah
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:59 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
my reaction to this post was: "what, i'm not voting dennis?", but then i saw that i am voting dennis and i don't know how or why that happened
i think my most recent vote was on creature but my current current vote is on sig
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:58 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
i think porscha should be in contention as an elimination option today if she doesn't towntell like i know she is capable of doing as town. i thought she was a mixed bag on d1 but i am bothered by how struggl-y and empty her posts feel so far today, and i think she needs more pressure than she has been getting. she feels like an important slot to solve to me right now, at any rate
i know that things seem to be moving in the direction of not killing jack, but i have to be honest in saying that i'm having a really hard time getting over the way he treated alison on d1 vs my mental model of how i expect jack to play. it is a lot easier for me to believe that jack had a narrow and stubborn view of the game because he is a wolf who is struggling to post more broadly, than it is for me to believe that jack is a villager who pushed on alison with reasoning that i perceive as bad faith in the context of him having played with her plenty of times before
i'm also not sure that i consider the argument of: "why would jack play like this as scum/" to be particularly compelling, because sometimes when ur scum, u dont choose the strategy, but the strategy chooses you. like, jack could have chosen to focus on alison BECAUSE he was struggling to make good sounding reads outside of her, or because he knew it would make him look townier than trying to play more broadly, or etc etc
it is particularly difficult for me to get over these feelings about jack with the context of baub's legacy on him and the feeling that in a world where he is a villager i kind of expect more people to have been pushing on him than currently are
but im willing to give him space to see how he solves today, just being upfront about where my head is at ig
i know that things seem to be moving in the direction of not killing jack, but i have to be honest in saying that i'm having a really hard time getting over the way he treated alison on d1 vs my mental model of how i expect jack to play. it is a lot easier for me to believe that jack had a narrow and stubborn view of the game because he is a wolf who is struggling to post more broadly, than it is for me to believe that jack is a villager who pushed on alison with reasoning that i perceive as bad faith in the context of him having played with her plenty of times before
i'm also not sure that i consider the argument of: "why would jack play like this as scum/" to be particularly compelling, because sometimes when ur scum, u dont choose the strategy, but the strategy chooses you. like, jack could have chosen to focus on alison BECAUSE he was struggling to make good sounding reads outside of her, or because he knew it would make him look townier than trying to play more broadly, or etc etc
it is particularly difficult for me to get over these feelings about jack with the context of baub's legacy on him and the feeling that in a world where he is a villager i kind of expect more people to have been pushing on him than currently are
but im willing to give him space to see how he solves today, just being upfront about where my head is at ig
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:51 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
mine are mac, lucy, and bereft. if lucy doesn't count, then i would add tutuu.
- Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:30 am
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
can everyone respond to this post with their top 3 most confident townreads?
ty
ty
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:05 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
ouch.
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:44 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
the thought about creature in particular was in reaction to him suggesting that roxy is mafia because the moon was not used to guarantee her elimination. the thought about sig was in reaction to them suggesting that the people who were townreading alison on d1/d2 "weren't even townread" and for entering today with the intention to justify their own vote on alison instead of moving forward and solving the game
admittedly i do not have particularly strong reads on either falcon or wilgy
admittedly i do not have particularly strong reads on either falcon or wilgy
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:40 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
[VOTE:
creature] aubergine
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:39 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
alison's legacy doesn't really matter - the point is that all of these players have wolfsided so aggressively and posted so disingenuously that it is difficult for me to get to a world where:MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:37 pm Creature
roxy
sig
jack
have to be 3 of 4 mafia for town to win?
please explain how this is a valid thought?
Alison's legacy on these 4 is 2 town, 1 null, 1 wolf btw.
A. i don't want to murder them
B. the rest of the game doesn't want to murder them either
but youre right that i am just venting frustration about the way the first 2 days played out more than making real gamestate analysis
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:36 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
your perception of the gamestate is very different from mine if you think that but okayMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:34 pmit's blatantly untrue that town can't win unless all 3 are mafia and there's no reason to feel that way much less say itstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:33 pmwhyMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:31 pmthis is nonsensestaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:06 pm if creature roxy sig and jack contains more than one villager then this game is probably a loss
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:33 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
whyMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:31 pmthis is nonsensestaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:06 pm if creature roxy sig and jack contains more than one villager then this game is probably a loss
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:20 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
porscha what reads do u have that u can talk with me about rn?
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:15 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
@lucy @MacDougall
i need ur help reading porscha today
i need ur help reading porscha today
- Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:06 pm
- Forum: Previous Rackets
- Topic: Cartomancy [Game Over]
- Replies: 4390
- Views: 72182
Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]
if creature roxy sig and jack contains more than one villager then this game is probably a loss