The Syndicate

I don't think people understand just how well tutuu played this game. From generally townie tone to the way she approached stuff like the LC claim and the way she positioned herself to never be correct for anyone to vote even by people who suspect her, this is super super tight scum play.

You know me, I don't have hard feelings.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:47 pm I undeerstand. That doesn't work for me, though. I don't see a victory in mafia worth it if the people playing with me didn't enjoy the game, too.

Well think about it from the perspective of my teammates. Wouldn't they enjoy it less if we had a close loss, and it came out postgame that I had a really strong correct read but chose not to nail them to the wall because I wanted to give them a chance?

Also note: I have the capacity to play "non-arrogantly", and have demonstrated that capability in many games. I tunnel people when I think it's the right play, not because I'm full of myself or want to carry every game.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:39 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:33 pm Strongly disagree with #1282. My stance is that if you aren't prepared to be suspected of being mafia you shouldn't play mafia. I've had games where I fucked up D1 and said something stupid, and was under pressure and called outed scum the whole game and I was fine with that because that's just mafia. I don't flex my reads. Everyone who's hydra'd with me in the hydra season games knows that I frequently manipulate the projected confidence I have in my reads because it furthers my win condition. Yes sometimes it backfires but for every time it backfires it creates good outcomes ten other times.

I play "arrogantly" because that's what works. It's not about being arrogant IRL or genuinely thinking I'm a god at mafia or whatever. I play as though my reads are correct because I think it's optimal. I've argued before on discord why it's GTO to exaggerate the confidence levels in early reads as well. I'm sorry you dislike playing against it, but I think this approach creates good results and we've seen a ton of town games won in the Syndicate because of players acting like this. Not just me but a wide variety of players who push their scumreads the way I did this game.

Have you tried to consider the worth of your strategy in terms other than whether they help you win the game?

I select strategies for games based on how much they help me fulfil my win condition. To do otherwise would be to fail to play to my win condition for external reasons (how embarassed I am if my strategy loses the game for town, how frustrated the other person gets, etc.), which I don't believe in when playing mafia.

The bottom line is that what you call "arrogant" reads may be frustrating for you personally but they objectively have a good track record of producing wolf pelts. That means that you're asking people to not do something that's proven to catch scum in order to cater to your playstyle because you hate being suspected. I don't think that's a reasonable request. I hate to sound blunt, harsh or cruel, but if you can't tolerate someone seriously 100% thinking that you're mafia and there's no probability of you being town... forum mafia is not the right game for you.

On a side note I want to point out that yes these kinds of things can be game losing for town if they're wrong, but you have to look at the overall EV of the strategy (% of being right * value of being right - % of being wrong * value of being wrong). If it works more often than it doesn't, even if you throw the game when you're wrong, it might still increase your overall winrate. Focusing overly on the downsides of this strategy is statistical bias, you're zooming in on the one time things go wrong rather than the multitudes of times they go right.

Strongly disagree with #1282. My stance is that if you aren't prepared to be suspected of being mafia you shouldn't play mafia. I've had games where I fucked up D1 and said something stupid, and was under pressure and called outed scum the whole game and I was fine with that because that's just mafia. I don't flex my reads. Everyone who's hydra'd with me in the hydra season games knows that I frequently manipulate the projected confidence I have in my reads because it furthers my win condition. Yes sometimes it backfires but for every time it backfires it creates good outcomes ten other times.

I play "arrogantly" because that's what works. It's not about being arrogant IRL or genuinely thinking I'm a god at mafia or whatever. I play as though my reads are correct because I think it's optimal. I've argued before on discord why it's GTO to exaggerate the confidence levels in early reads as well. I'm sorry you dislike playing against it, but I think this approach creates good results and we've seen a ton of town games won in the Syndicate because of players acting like this. Not just me but a wide variety of players who push their scumreads the way I did this game.

I sort of wonder what would've happened if ted had exed Marmot like he wanted. I assume we would've turbo'd Esooa next, she'd flip town, then it would be between Wilgy and tutuu. I think scum still win because I'd side with tutuu in that position, probably, I was pocketed too deep.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:31 am Gj tutu you weren’t lying when you said your scum game is terrifying

Yes she did really good! Her town game is hard to replicate and I read her town pretty much the whole way here. The counterclaim on LC was godlike tbh.

yeah lol

*gives tutuu lots of headpats*

You were great as mafia!!! You had me pocketed totally. <3 You deserve lots of commendations for that!

tutuu is spewed scum by the fact that she was the only one who isn't confirmed town who's online to vote for calling the game since Martin said one scum member voted to call. *taps head*

In which case congratulations tutuu your scum game was impeccable and you've finally managed to prove to us all that you're a force to be feared as scum!!

Esooa - I would've apologized to you for misreading + pushing you if the game had ended normally. But the way it's ended up has left a sour taste in mine - and I think everyone's - mouth. If you wanna play mafia you have to learn that being on either end of a disastrously wrong tunnel is gonna happen sooner or later and you need to learn to deal with that. I don't think you have to leave the Syndicate or anything and I'm willing to forgive and forget if you promise not to do it again, I just don't want you to do stuff like this any more.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:48 am gonna stick to the marmot vote either way

laterz, am expecting game to end here because at this point it's not even a game anymore

idk wat it is

Yeah I've asked for the host to intervene, too many people have been spewed off this and it's not fair to the mafia even if the game continues and we win.

The really sad part is that this isn't even the first doctor getting themselves modkilled out of tilt at being suspected by town after a mafia member successfully faked being doctor and counterclaimed them in endgame I've heard of this year. Thank god I wasn't a part of that second one, but I heard about it.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:37 am to be fair, I do have some words myself

but this should be post-game stuff, so gonna wait for thread health

Yeah that's fair.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:36 am nah, still a villager

although i wish i weren't

Glad I got there on you at least. Probably just Wilgy/Marmot or Wilgy/Sig then. I'm impressed with whichever of tutuu/Wilgy is the mafia because tutuu handled LC's claim in a townie way and Wilgy had the foresight to fake a breadcrumb + the guts to claim and fight the doctors rather than just lie back and try to squirm through the POE. If it's tutuu I'll be very very impressed and give her lots of headpats for having such great mafia play!

tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:33 am ohboay

sick games

So did you outplay us?

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:33 am Alison I knew you were town look at my posts before I said that but you scum sided harder than I've ever seen before and literally would not give up

And this gives you the right to fuck up the game for everyone else, because you think I'm playing poorly? To blatantly cheat and give out information the host sent you in private, that someone has already been modkilled for even indirectly referring to?

I mean, if you want to eviscerate my play, go ahead. I was wrong about you. But it doesn't give you the right to do what you did. I'm not talking to you as a mafia player, I'm talking to you as a person. Whoever is on the mafia team, you've just ruined their ability to get a clean, fair win. Why are you punishing them because you're upset that I'm tunnelling you?

Like I don't know how to explain this to you but this reflects really poorly on your character if you'd rather ruin the entire game than just accept that you're going to lose to other townies having bad reads sometimes. Seriously, what the fuck.

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:29 am alison you tunneled me for literally no reason, you had zero valid reasons to think I was scum and you literally insist from you're first post of the game that you want me dead

Yes. I do that sometimes. Most of the time I'm correct; evidently I was wrong in this case.

Doesn't matter. Even if I was wrong every single time and the worst player on earth, that doesn't justify cheating and gameruining because you can't just accept your loss and go next. Like that is horrific sportsmanship.

If you don't want to be suspected of being mafia, don't play mafia. Playing mafia means you accept you're going to be tunnelled, and let's face it, you suspected and pushed me too. I don't complain that you wrongly thought I was scum. I know it's part of the game. Even if I was the worst, wrongest player on planet earth it doesn't justify what you did, which was to ruin the game for everyone else because you didn't like the way it played out.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:27 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:23 am esooa town means ted and sig are also lock town

so wilgy + marmot or wilgy + alison

I'm not town. No reason to lie now, game will be called. Even the most newbie host would see that there's no repairing the gamestate.

I'm town**

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:23 am esooa town means ted and sig are also lock town

so wilgy + marmot or wilgy + alison

I'm not town. No reason to lie now, game will be called. Even the most newbie host would see that there's no repairing the gamestate.

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:22 am my intention is to get mod killed not angle shoot

You're part of a 3-way claim situation, you getting modkilled gives town information they aren't permitted to have early, and responses to what you just said can spew people alignments as well, when they would never have been spewed if you hadn't said it.

If you got tunnelled and lost, ok, I'll apologize to you postgame. I've been tunnelled before, I didn't like it, but we shake hands and say "fair enough" and compliment the mafia on setting townies on each other so effectively after the game. I've played mafia for 10 years and that's happened to me countless times. Sometimes it's my fault, sometimes it's other people's fault. But after the game the frustration goes away and we go next. What you've done is screw the game integrity beyond reckoning because you didn't like that you were going to lose.

Even if the host doesn't call the game or end it at this point, if we win due to this it'll feel like the mafia got robbed and it wasn't a real win. If we lose due to this, we'll be wondering if we could have won without what you said. The mafia probably feel even worse, because now they're totally denied the ability to get a "fair" win, when they were pretty favored beforehand. I know you're new to mafia so you don't understand how much it ruins the game but it's better to accept a loss, even a frustrating/embarassing loss, than to ruin the game for everyone else.

Like if Esooa is actually town here then we almost certainly would have lost since I died telling townies to kill her, and we all agreed on a plan to exe her after I died.

So.

It would be pretty unfair to Wilgy and whoever his teammate is (or I guess tutuu if she's a mafia genius and is actually the scum) to deny them the win based off someone using knowledge they aren't allowed to disclose, that should never have happened in the first place and only happened because of host error. Like that's not even a win, it would leave a bad taste in my mouth to win because someone cheated, knowing I "should" have lost under normal circumstances.

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:20 am change of plans?

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

I don't want to. If that angleshoot is fake and we fall for it that's awful, if that angleshoot is real, I don't want to win off that shit since I think it's actually cheating and the game integrity was already fucked.

I don't know if that angleshoot is real or fake (probably real given context) but the fact that Esooa just tried to angleshoot herself a certain alignment ruins the integrity of an already-damaged game to the point that I think the mod just has to call it.

I'm town, in case it wasn't clear.

That is incredibly unethical no matter what alignment you are, what the hell is wrong with you

Being frustrated at a game is one thing, but you've taken it to the extent of actually ruining it

what

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:12 am it exists to show that Alison and I aren't difference checked and Alisons play is plain and simply either scum motivated or completely awful

nonono. We're past that now. If you're going to shove me all the way to being forced to suicide bomb myself to prove that my reads are legitimate, you don't get to start arguing that there isn't a difference check after I flip town.

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:07 am I'm not ever reconsidering voting you because in the world you are "town" you made this game have 4 mafia because you think an entry post you don't like is enough of a reason to suicide bomb someone

Good for you. And in the world you're town you can blame the loss on me and LC. I'm not afraid to be wrong. I've been wrong - even terribly wrong, game losingly wrong - before. It won't deter me from taking an action I think has a high percent chance of winning the game just because it looks embarassing in the low percent chance that I throw it. That's not how I play games; I play games based on what I think is correct and has the highest chance of winning, not based on what saves me the most face postgame. I think playing based on what saves you face postgame is actually a super toxic and awful way of playing games, and I strive to make my play as correct and optimal as possible.

So yeah, after reviewing a list of my options, seeing what people are more likely to adhere to/agree on, and seeing which has the highest possibility of flipping a scum, I'm going with this one. The last time someone said this to me it was in Grasslands, where I thunderdomed Sloonei very confidently, and was told that I should not have that much confidence he would flip scum because if he was T and I was T, town would lose the game on the spot. I gave the same response there as I'll give to you now, which is that I play the game the way I believe to be correct and I won't have any regrets no matter what the outcome comes out as, because I made the move I knew was the best and had the highest probability of winning at the time. (Sloonei was scum in that game, for the record.)

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:03 am your post soft cap is at 213 alison, and even then you can make up to 75 more posts today

and ok cool.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

at least we're all in this cahoot together and u cant all be scum. if this goes wrong it wont be my fault and thats honestly what i care about most

oh thanks! I must've miscalculated.

suddenly now I can be town and the wagon on me needs to be "reconsidered"

Are you reading the thread? Any cred given or not given to me doesn't matter. We're resolving my alignment the hard way. And then afterwards we're going to exe you and exe Marmot.

Ok I lied I wanted to bring up one more point before I shower (don't kill me please Martin, pretend I'm taking it from my pool of night posts that won't materialize). Mac's last solve was LC/Marmot I think, and it is very rare that Mac is 100% wrong since he's a good player, so I'll pay him some respect and treat his read on Marmot scum seriously since we know LC is town.

tutuu, FMPOV knowing I am town, Esooa is a better exe too. But I think compromising is a good decision here (and you know how much I care about optimality of play), even if another outcome is more optimal with the information you have. Basically, if everyone else is on board, if you push for Esooa/Wilgy exe here, then you are essentially creating the opportunity for chaos or doubt to happen, especially in extended arguments/fights and EODs and general screaming. I think if you believe that the gamestate is nailed down that hard, then the best way to deny mafia the victory is to batten down the hatches by denying them EOD chaos that may lead to some horrific flash wagon, like exeing you. I've seen those bad flash wagons happen enough times that I'm willing to take a very slight deduction to the probabilities in exchange for making sure that doesn't happen and the endgame is conductd in an orderly and organized fashion. Besides, if everyone else has made up their minds you won't be able to convince them no matter how hard you argue, so it's best to just go with it and keep the thread as orderly as possible.

linki: I'm literally hard shielding ted and gambling the game on him being town right now so you can stop with that, Esooa.

Won't be checking the thread any more because I'm committed to an autosolve at this point so talking with people or whatever is kinda pointless. I'm out of posts anyway and ted knows what to say after the flip to ensure everyone is on board and coordinates and nobody throws. Very well played if ted is scum since his solve was really townie, I'll kick myself postgame if I lose to that, but given the way the game played out (LC's claim, etc.) they'll soundly deserve it. Same with sig. If Esooa manages to pocket tutuu endgame then very well played there too, she's a champ for holding out this long after exposing herself N1. Either way, this will probably be my last post for the game.

I'm convinced. I won't put up any more resistance to my exe given ted has a plan. If I lose to scum ted/sig so be it. If I lose to tutuu voting Wilgy in F3 I might be a little annoyed, but I think tutuu is a good enough player not to fall for that.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

I will say that if you respect my legacy at all, well, I've made it clear who I've scumread throughout the game.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:39 am voting in the doctors if we move through with this plan is basically a throw

whoever's in F3 they'll have to consider it, but marmot is always dying tomorrow if you're town.

Well if we move through with this plan I'm basically gambling everything that the team is exactly Esooa/Marmot.

So in theory the order doesn't matter. I'm a little worried about Esooa pocketing tutuu and winning the endgame if that occurs though. So I'm going to just say that if I suicide myself to expose the mafia team that tutuu better not throw the endgame I set up for her

Yeah ok I checked sig's ISO and I'm more or less ok with losing to scum him, his tone is good. I don't really trust derpclears in endgame but since I think I've talked myself into townreading you off of incompatibility with Esooa (you'd have to have bussed her -> bussed Syn D1, which is a lot more unlikely than just bussing Syn, and she would have to have tied herself really hard to her partner despite knowing she's likely to be outed soon), and you're shielding sig as well so I should also give that credit.

I'm ok with striking a deal here, I'll vote myself and put up no further resistance to my wagon given your argument, as long as you pinky promise to not let Esooa talk her way out of an exe tomorrow. And make tutuu promise as well since you could die at night :P

ok, I think it actually is optimal from ted's POV to exe me if he knows he's town and believes in clearing sig. So I'll give him a pass for voting outside the doc claims there given he can prove it's mathematically correct.

ted do you promise me that if you undergo your plan, you will turbo Esooa without hesitation when I flip green, and not let her talk you into voting tutuu or Wilgy?

ted I'm thinking about your argument (that you'll just auto Esooa and expose Marmot if I flip town). Accepting it means basically "I'm ready to lose to scum sig or scum ted if they've falsely cleared themselves", so I'm going to go through your ISOs and figure out if I trust you two enough. If the answer is yes, I'm ready to lose to a deepwolf in you two, then I'm willing to accept an Alison exe on the condition that you guys exe Esooa -> Marmot immediately after.

I think I might have accidentally gone over post count. I apologize for that, I'll be reserving whatever posts I have left to respond to questions directed at me by people who aren't Esooa. Esooa is probably going to tell you that I'm trying to avoid engaging with her because I'm scum but I think it's very clear that I'm not afraid to engage with and thunderdome people. Tag me if you really want a response to something - I've laid my case out as clearly as possible, and I have in #1096 as well. If you're town I suggest you follow my line of reasoning and vote Esooa out.

is the only one who did*, not didn't*

Remember that there are three doctor claims and Esooa is the only one who didn't make her claim while threatened with an exe, which is the ideal position for mafia to claim PR. Remember that I pressured her by asking her, repeatedly, why she's wanting to vote outside of the doctor claims, and she keeps dodging the question, calling me scum and trying to discrediting me instead of answering why it makes logical sense to exe outside of the claim pool when that's one of the first rules of mafia. If two people claim the same role, you exe between them to find out who the scum is. If there's two doctors and three people claim doctor, you exe in them to find out who the scum is. Absolutely zero response to that logic - just sitting there telling people that I'm scum, when town Esooa would be trying to figure out which of tutuu/Wilgy's claim timings are scummier.

Begging to be killed is not AtE. Pretending to be a tilted townie and saying loudly that you'll leave the thread is AtE, because you're trying to get people to feel sorry for you and not vote you. Asking to be killed is not AtE because there's no emotion involved - I planned to use my flip to out you. That is me using game mechanics to produce information, and at no point did I ever try to make anyone feel guilty or bad about exeing me. I don't use AtE in games.

Remember that she calls my reads "dog shit" despite me having had townreads on Mac, nanook, LC and falcon - all of whom have flipped town. Remember that she specifically called my read on LC awkward and buddy-like because of the way I shielded him during D1, yet when he ends up flipping VT, she's trying to frame it as "Alison has been wrong all game". How does she know my reads are dog shit? Even if she's town and knows my read on her is wrong, that's at most 1 wrong read out of 5. Because she doesn't actually care about figuring out how accurate my reads have been - she's just throwing stuff out to make me look bad and discredit me. If I die remember these posts and refer back to them.

Don't let yourself get AtE'd by Esooa. Remember that she wouldn't be this angry if she thought I was mafia, because that's exactly what I would do as mafia. She's angry because Wilgy claimed and outed her and now she's in desperado mode trying to take a townie with her before she dies. Remember that the mafia strongman killed a Vanilla Townie over her when she claimed doctor EOD1. Because she isn't a doctor. Remember that she's trying to claim all credit for killing Syn and try to force people to clear her for it for no reason. Remember that she's being counterclaimed by tutuu and Wilgy and wants to exe outside of the claims.

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:07 am thanks for buying votes for me cause no one will believe it's sig double bussing with me and marmot knows I'm not mafia with him

The town in them is smart enough to realize that they should be voting in the doc claims (I hope). The scum in them is probably going to vote with you anyway. And if ted is scum this appeal is useless so who cares.

Either way I'm going to reach out to whoever in town still sees sense.

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:35 am i have alison telling me to vote eso
i have ted telling me to vote eso
i have wilgy who's indirectly telling me to vote eso since he's voting her in this trio thunderdome

and yet im not voting eso, i think she's town, im also obvious town myself, you guys figure out this mess

@tutuu There's one mafia in Esooa/me. There's one mafia in Esooa/you/Wilgy. If you exe Esooa, and she flips town, then you have auto. I get exed the next day for sure, and you probably win a 1v1 with Wilgy in F3. So from your point of view you should always be voting Esooa.

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:47 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 6:12 am tutuu, if you're town then you should vote esooa. because don't think wilgy is it.

i'll be spending some time later on trying to figure out which one out of esooa / tutuu i want gone.

occam's razor says it's probably esooa due to raisins, but it would've helped if tutuu didn't have one of their wolfiest pushes on me.

and while we're at it, also would've helped if they didn't feign confidence in stuff they don't believe in.

also like I said I don't have a partner and Alison wants me dead today before her flip spews me as confirmed town

Esooa can easily be partners with Marmot or sig even if it's not ted. Don't listen to this stuff.