The Syndicate

Lime Coke is easily my top choice to eliminate today.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:31 pm A silly gamestate is 9 times out of 10 a pro T gamestate. See champs 2023 game 1 d1. We went full silly.

I'm not sure that game ended in a town win because of that silliness, but sure it worked out in the end.

I can't help but worry about opening up ties and then by extension self-vote silliness. But we have a half hour.

Wilgy might be one of my top town reads all of a sudden. I just thoroughly buy his hunt as real.

We're entering the legacy period of Day 1, friends. I will share some parting thoughts soon. Everyone should.

I don't believe I have ever seen Epignosis solely pile on his own teammate once since I joined this website. There's a first time for everything, but I doubt he's teamed with Abigail.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:59 pm
Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:53 pm have had an wild afternoon and need to get Ariya fast. So I have to vote now vote limey
I cannot read him one way or the other except the disappearing act is never a good sign. I'll thank Wiml for this if we get a hit but will not blame them if we don't. I do like their case and felt they have the knowledge of Limey that I just don't.
Hmmm...

If Brad is town, does W Roxy have the need to stack here sheeping the Wiml?

My first guess would be no, though it'd be less about need and more about character. I think mafia Roxy would probably be less inclined to forgive Wiml for being wrong in advance if LC is town. It's just a small hunch though.

If I was mafia I would have zero posts. You can trust me.

It seems Lime Coke's return was to be lost, to grant Wiml a town read, and then to vote for Wiml.

I am not inclined to move my vote.

We can celebrate our desire to play hard and make many posts when the game thread is a nice place to be. If we're in here putting out 200 posts on Day 1 and it's a toxic hellhole, that is when we must soul-search.

Quick Wilgy ISO review

Spoiler: show

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 1:03 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:55 pm @DrWilgy I know it sucks playing while ill, prioritise taking care of yourself first!!!

I'm happy just assuming you're a villager and giving you space for now tbh.
Aye, I'd just assume I'm an unknown though because I am.

I skimmed Falc and I agree this is T Falcon quite confidently. While I haven't seen LC's posts, I can believe T fal believes what he saw there and would be willing to sheep that so far.

Will nap and do some other thinking later.

[VOTE: LC] aubergine

This is fine. It's not wonderful, but it's fine. I have also town read falcon the whole game, so for Wilgy to snap to the same judgment and follow falcon's lead against a player I also have my vote on is fine.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:10 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:57 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:54 pm I do think being uninformed is a completely different beast. It's a lot easier to post when you have no clue.

Anyway, it's not worth dwelling on at this point. Kate is in my POE regardless of volume. I am considering Kate/Abigail as a difference check now (insert obligatory "or some softer version of that term").
I'd be interested in hearing your difference check read if you're up for explaining it?
The Kate/Abigail dif check is real. I remember thinking there was one but couldn't tell you for the life of me as to why I thought it.

Wild that it was observed by someone else though, I'd never had said anything and just let it amount to fuzzy sick brain.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:11 pm
Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 3:45 pm This is extremely coherent for a tzenon.

Gonna put my vote here for now.

[VOTE: PA] aubergine
It was when I read this that I thought that implied a dif. Not sure why exactly.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:32 pm
Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:29 pm You know I'm very tempted to have you guys lynch me just so I could prove definitively that intuition is better than stats.
Homie, I trust your intuition. Your intuition stat is like 99 compared to my 92.

You like dumped all your stats into intuition.

It's because I trust your intuition Abigail and you are on these lists.

It's also because I trust your intuition it'd be really weird for the Abigail read to be wrong without good reason.

Perhaps this is too mindmeld, and I won't shower Wilgy with praise for agreeing with my specific viewpoint. I will say though that Wilgy tends to solve games with complex layers of micro-structures (e.g., difference checks and wagon dynamics), so this is on-brand.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 7:10 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:58 am
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:54 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:39 am
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:27 pm I've become enlightened.

Team is:
Epi, Abigail
Epi, Kate
Wiml, Abigail
Wiml, Kate
Wilgy, Kate

Miss me wit dem @s
Are you townreading Lime Coke?
Nope.

I'm not reading LC rn. I haven't seen anything of them. My vote is only because Falcon town and Falcon probs goat.
What's specific about those teams you listed, then?

I assumed you meant that they were the only teams that you thought seemed likely.
Idk, they carried who I thought was the correct answer by quantity, by dif check and by gut reaction. I really wasn't thinking about other people in the moment.

If I were to update this actually thinking about it and the players involved this game it'd be like an evolving PoE that should be solved like: Kate/Abigail, LC/Wiml, Quin, Epi, Roxy? I think that's the greater PoE till other evolutions or events are seen.

However, I've only read what I've been around for still and Falc's ISO. Catching up continues to be difficult, so it's a matter of gauging in the moment for me so far.

This kind of follows from what I just said. Wilgy is definitely the type to work through a game solution by toying with pairs like the ones in this exchange. Including himself was dopey.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:47 pm I'd like to offer a 3rd wagon. [VOTE: Quin] aubergine

Homie was like,
Quin wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:37 am A lynch between Abigail and LC could tell me a lot.
Then was like,
Quin wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:44 am Abigail has earned a Day 2 and I Do Not See It for LC.

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

I'll try put it into words if I have time. It's just a suspicion that is There.
and I tried to poke the suspicion out,

and I got nothing.

Dude don't even mention me before dis.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:19 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:56 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:54 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:52 pm Aye, and I'm still good with either Brad or Abigail rn. Will put in some time now to deliberate between the two.

I offered Quin in thinking they were the most eager to grab the lowest hanging fruit, and am curious as to if anyone agrees.
I don’t really see it that way. He should reply though, if it’s possible in his time zone before day ends in three hours.
what way do you see it then? Did you see insight as to where Quin found the low poster wolf in me?
I don’t know why he suspects you, no, and that is something he needs to clear up. So your beef is understandable.

It doesn’t strike me as a generic “LHF” move though. If Quin is mafia then at least one of the bigger wagons is town. They could be called LHF in their own right. I don’t care for vanity votes in general, so regardless of whether his vote for you qualifies as LHF, I’d say it’s less than his best moment.

Gun to my head he felt a bit contrarian.
Aye contrarian feels correct, but the vote on me feels very no consequence in nature based on who it was on.

I don't see what is LHF as wagon deterministic. Like, if this is town Abigail, I'd not say that it's an LHF wagon (maybe Brad would be).

LHF results in no consequence for the voter because of the perception of no net T loss in effort/energy as a result of that vote.

Wilgy's gripes with Quin may be a bit petty, but I think they're technically valid. For a contrary view, one could argue that Wilgy is griping about a Quin vanity vote (on Wilgy) and placing a vanity vote of his own (on Quin). I don't think I care though. Quilgy quibbles.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:29 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:28 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:49 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:47 pm Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml

One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.
I’m considering a Michelle/Wiml “difference check”. That term is too strong for where I stand, but some softer version of that.
I think it could be. I know I'm town.

I don't agree with locking falcon town for such weak reasons but I am town leaning falcon.

So to me it's always Michelle or Wiml
This exchange is fascinating.

Is the dif between Wiml/Michelle solely because we hit a 4 player involved wagon early? I love these observations and calls, but have also found that being on them while making said call allows me to manipulate them as wolf.

I suggested earlier in the thread that I thought Abigail's "one in four names" approach was Wilgy-esque, so it makes sense for Wilgy to take interest.

This may give some sense of the good things for Wilgy. More broadly, I am not sure I see any bad things.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:07 pm careful to give me too much credit there Jay. Half my posts are about fettuccini.

That's true. I just saw in your ISO that ten posts are about how much I am steak.

One initial note to consider: I think sometimes that when players take a bit longer to get involved (as DrWilgy did this time), we get into a state of mental inertia that locks them into a "low involvement" perception without it necessarily being true. Wilgy has 46 posts.

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:59 pm Would you mind talking a bit more about Wilgy?

On a micro level, I think he's got some individual posts that are villagery and appreciate his attitude and enthusiasm, especially coming from a triple wolf streak while also being ill. His solving seems much more natural and less linear than I remember him being in the wolf games of his I specced as well. I'm interested in what you've got on him though.

(Writing it down I probably have more there to justify calling him town than I initially realised tbh.)

I'll throw together a quick ISO review.

A lot of silliness is resolved if voting for oneself is just against the rules.

I always forget to add that when I host. Next time.

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:40 pm Interested in hearing from anybody who has a strong read on Wilgy / Epi / Quin, particularly if you think that they're villagers.

They're players who I don't know very well and all tend to fall into the category of "has towny moments but nothing conclusive".

I think that’s a fair read. Wilgy is probably the best of the three with respect to the proportion of his posts that seem town without raising questions. Epignosis seems town too, just with more room for a nefarious agenda in his decisions. Quin has a “good vibe” but nothing more.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:40 pm I'm too lazy to explain why

Remember your training.

I certainly agree that his vote is of no consequence. I award no credit for that.

I watch. I wait. I nibble a snack.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:56 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:54 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:52 pm Aye, and I'm still good with either Brad or Abigail rn. Will put in some time now to deliberate between the two.

I offered Quin in thinking they were the most eager to grab the lowest hanging fruit, and am curious as to if anyone agrees.
I don’t really see it that way. He should reply though, if it’s possible in his time zone before day ends in three hours.
what way do you see it then? Did you see insight as to where Quin found the low poster wolf in me?

I don’t know why he suspects you, no, and that is something he needs to clear up. So your beef is understandable.

It doesn’t strike me as a generic “LHF” move though. If Quin is mafia then at least one of the bigger wagons is town. They could be called LHF in their own right. I don’t care for vanity votes in general, so regardless of whether his vote for you qualifies as LHF, I’d say it’s less than his best moment.

Gun to my head he felt a bit contrarian.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:52 pm Aye, and I'm still good with either Brad or Abigail rn. Will put in some time now to deliberate between the two.

I offered Quin in thinking they were the most eager to grab the lowest hanging fruit, and am curious as to if anyone agrees.

I don’t really see it that way. He should reply though, if it’s possible in his time zone before day ends in three hours.

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:37 pm JJJ are you still at a similar spot with your PoE as before?

I believe so. The new material in the thread hasn’t moved the needle.

This time can be Kate’s Big Break though. Can Kate Take the Cake? Does Kate Wear a Cape? I am tuned in.

I’ve seen Lime Coke receive suspicion as town on a number of occasions, and this was never the result in the past. He has usually continued playing, either giving faith that folks would come around or developing his own reads.

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?

No.

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 7:01 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:53 am I should probably acknowledge that Quin is now compatible with Lime Coke. It's a very blatant connection, but it exists.
If the wagons are w/t then is Quin the sort to vote on a third wagon that doesn't currently seem viable?

I know they initially townread Abigail but they later dropped it and seemed to have reasonable justification to vote there if they wanted to.

I could see it. I don't think it's terrible beyond reason, but I will almost never give someone town credit for a vanity vote.

To be clear, I think Quin is most likely town. For the sake of due diligence though, I log the note.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:57 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:53 am I should probably acknowledge that Quin is now compatible with Lime Coke. It's a very blatant connection, but it exists.
I suppose I'll deal with that if and when I need to

I will say it would be silly for me to come in with a defence like this when his lynch is all but sealed, and we're dealing with a 9:2 ratio. My guess is that the team are distancing or ghosting the hell out of eachother.

I wouldn't say that.

I should probably acknowledge that Quin is now compatible with Lime Coke. It's a very blatant connection, but it exists.

Flirting.

Quilgy fight.

@falcon45ca I think you should return your vote to Lime Coke.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:36 am @Quin any cause for the delay in placing a vote?

Same question for @Roxy

@Quin any cause for the delay in placing a vote?

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:33 am LC's posts are most worthwhile to read when they are about falcon. I think the claim he doesn't care about his reads is accurate, except where he's talking about falcon.

That's a fair assessment. The falcon read was clearly the one he operated on the most. Maybe your next quest is to check out falcon.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:16 am I despise Rands and think they are anti town.

I understand that point of view, truly. I don't like them either. So I fully support you breaking any ties...

Except if that means breaking a tie to kill yourself. That is never good. Ever. It cannot help.

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:13 am Currently leaning towards a world where if Lime Coke is a wolf his partner doesn't have a lot of thread control.

Not really confident that we're living in a world where two players with the potential for being very active, capable wolves are sat not doing a whole lot to influence things while both are getting run up and wagoned.

Generally agreed.

*sips Earl Grey*

Also, if I ask myself "what if LC is town?", I tend to veer straight into hard mode. It's still possible some generic POE pair would work, but it wouldn't feel right.

*bites gingerly into biscuit*

Not something to worry about now, but later we'll see.

*peers out the window to the botanical garden*

Regardless of your alignment, I appreciate your efforts to make this game a habitable and kind place to be @Wiml.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:10 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:42 am
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:37 am Thank you... this is so harddddd I'll try.
Here are two starting points for you to take that next step:

1.) Please describe for me, as you see it, why Michelle suspects you if Michelle is town. Just make that assumption for the moment for the sake of this exercise.

2.) Clarify for me how you read Michelle regardless of how you answer #1.
1. Because from their pov my early 1 in 4 read was bad faith and forced and they would believe that I jumped on their wagon opportunistically early. They would also believe that my explanations for things are inadequate.

2. I can not find Michelle as town and thus they sit in my PoE.

Thank you. Truly, these answers are more for @Michelle's benefit. I will see where the conversation goes.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:07 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:41 am
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:37 am Jay, I think the way she is self content for posting town reads and tries to present herself as solvy is not towny

It was implied when i said mafia prefer to post town reads to not argue with the townies they are pushing that she is mafia for doing that.

If you noticed she didn't say I am a wolf for suspecting her, she said I played wolfy or something.
You could be right. As of right this moment I would still place Abigail in my POE pool merely as a product of thread momentum.
Fair and valid

Hey @JaggedJimmyJay can you take away my mod powers from hosting pls

I will ask someone not playing to take care of it, but good eye.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:04 am I truly appreciate you and all the effort you've put into helping me grow as a player and understand the mistakes I'm making

I'm happy to be of service. And remember that there is no shame in mistakes or in needing to grow.

I screw the pooch all the time in Mafia games. I have much room to grow.

This is just your journey to discover your true power. And it'll be fun to see it when you do.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:00 am
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:18 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:16 am
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:13 am Jay how you consider the fact Abigail voted Brad only after I said they're w/w wagons in a world where Brad flips mafia?
Of course if he flips town the question is pointless.
I don't think it means much either way. At this point in time they are counterwagons, and either version of Abigail is justified to vote for the counterwagon. I don't view the timing (with respect to your theory in particular) as especially important. I wouldn't clear her for it, and I wouldn't throw her in jail for it either.
Thanks for the answer, anyway if Brad comes back I think he will self press as well and the wagons will be tied again.
I will never let a vote rand and yes that means I will commit die on myself too prevent a tie

Please do not do that. It is not pro-town.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:58 am can somebody tell 3j that i disagree with his first point against lime coke because i townread 3j for the exact same reason

Still need to ISO, but from those links I am Just Not Seeing It.

That's fine. That first point was probably my weakest.

Cases are often just not compelling regardless of their accuracy. It's hard to read some case someone wrote and say "oh yes, this is the good one, kill kill kill". So I get that. I'd be pleased to see your own takes when you're able. Be mindful that the day ends in 11 hours.

I think everyone that hasn't already should share their new impressions of Quin.

@☆Princess Abigail☆ how do you feel about Lime Coke, your vote aside?

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:40 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:37 am My god my posts are boring. I'm going to put myself to sleep.
I never had that impression. Playing with you is always fun

You're one of the good ones, Michelle, both for talent and for kindness.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:43 am I couldn't find a good gif for it, but earlier I was reading along with some of the 3J/Wiml interactions and just envisioned two really old English blokes sipping tea and laughing like old friends. Felt like two townies found eachother. And were secretly a couple. Or something.

I'm glad to hear that. When everyone is living the dream, all interactions in Mafia threads can be like that -- even between adversaries.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:40 am That's post-Japanese food Quin, but I also want to know the cases brought up against him.

Here's my initial case for Lime Coke. He hasn't done much since then, so it might as well still be current.

Also refer to some recent comments from Wiml: Click #1, Click #2, Click #3.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:37 am Thank you... this is so harddddd I'll try.

Here are two starting points for you to take that next step:

1.) Please describe for me, as you see it, why Michelle suspects you if Michelle is town. Just make that assumption for the moment for the sake of this exercise.

2.) Clarify for me how you read Michelle regardless of how you answer #1.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:37 am Jay, I think the way she is self content for posting town reads and tries to present herself as solvy is not towny

It was implied when i said mafia prefer to post town reads to not argue with the townies they are pushing that she is mafia for doing that.

If you noticed she didn't say I am a wolf for suspecting her, she said I played wolfy or something.

You could be right. As of right this moment I would still place Abigail in my POE pool merely as a product of thread momentum.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:37 am I'm scum reading everyone (Epi is a quinfoil) on the Abigail wagon, but I'm not sure she's town either.

Thread leaders, 1 of whom (3J) I townread and another I townlean (Wiml) are on LC, who I have no opinion on.

I am realistically not getting through 12~ pages of content before I go to bed in 3 hours, so I'm pretty desperate for someone to tell me where to look on that front.

A lynch between Abigail and LC could tell me a lot.

Have you taken a dive into LC's posts yet? Worth doing if not, and there aren't that many to dig through.

My god my posts are boring. I'm going to put myself to sleep.

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