The Syndicate

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:05 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:00 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:55 am Well that's unfortunate.

What do you think of the reasons I gave for town reading falcon?

Farty.

I laughed.

Why do you read me as town if my town read on your suspect is farty?

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:55 am Well that's unfortunate.

What do you think of the reasons I gave for town reading falcon?

I do have some gripes with Lime Coke.


The last time I saw this post (the gist being "JJJ seems really town now, not like last game when he was mafia") it came from mafia WildZoo in one of the SDN games I linked for Wiml.


falcon was my top town read as of this moment, and to drop this vote without engaging me (or anyone else town reading falcon) in some capacity is a bit off.


Kinda farty


Not sure LC cares about his Abigail read. This "tone it down" move came right after I said the same thing, but with barely any qualification or exploration of the topic.

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:48 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:23 am I interpreted Lime Coke's "scared" as a lighthearted (so, "jokey") way of expressing a genuine sentiment -- unease about Wiml.

Yes I like to use the "I'm scared" thing as a joke in moments and in the tone of me trying to act tough or like I'm about to do something huge.

The shift tends to get people since they don't expect it.

I don't entirely follow what you mean. "I'm scared" is trying to act tough?

@Michelle do you still read falcon as town?

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:40 am Okay but like what I mean by this is not real is that 2 people have said that I'm town

Michelle has said why

They've answered

Michelle has said no

And they've been like oh ha yes you are right in fact no

And nobody thinks this is fishy or weird.

It brings to mind that famous W Bush quote

Fool me once shame on you fool me twice uh never fool me again

Truth be told, my biggest takeaway from that sequence wasn't "Abigail is suspicious", but instead it was "Michelle is making sound points and seems authentic". This is kind of the nature of teamwork, as I see it.

I do think it's plausible that LC followed the wave, since his reduced town read followed directly from mine. So that could be called fishy.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:36 am Brad's wolfy because he identified a completely valid post to scumread me based on (even if I'd argue I'd never made that post as mafia, that's total WIFOM) but is very hesitant to push on it. This was just a mild ping at the time but I wanted to move off of Michelle and he seemed like a reasonable vote for that reason.

And then his "it's just a joke" post I reacted to made the above significantly more apparent by totally backing down on it imo (which is where our interpretations seem to differ) and was the point where I started actively considering him to be wolfy.

Wolf-Brad knows I have a reasonably good read on him and have a high chance of burying him later on unless he pockets me. I also used to OMGUS a bit in the past. So wolf-Brad almost never wants to genuinely try to push on me.

So I find his pointing out a genuinely reasonable reason to scumread me and backing off as "just a joke" to be wolfy from him specifically.

Understood. I can't speak much regarding the history you cite between you two, but I think it's fine for you to have this suspicion. Lime Coke's in my POE at the moment too.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:31 am It's a read I've used with consistency for months with insanely high accuracy.

The read is the first wagon with 3 votes always had 1 wolf in 4 names

I admittedly forced it here but still.

Or alternatively, if you can remember another time you made this read, that'd help. I said earlier that I thought I had seen it before from you, but I cannot recall specifically.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:29 am Simple meth

You'd suggested your read about the Michelle wagon was ">rand" earlier. If you can explain your idea of that "math", it'd probably help to sort you. I don't mean computing literal probabilities, that's impossible, but if you can explain why that read is ">rand" correct, then your rationale is made clear.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:26 am This is not real lol

Reads are fluid, especially this early. Keep doing your thing, Abigail.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:26 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:23 am I interpreted Lime Coke's "scared" as a lighthearted (so, "jokey") way of expressing a genuine sentiment -- unease about Wiml.

I interpreted it the same way so I'm not sure what you're meaning?

If I am correct in that interpretation, Lime Coke can validly call it a "joke", but it still demands clarity about what in that post inspired unease about you.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:23 am Sus... but actually probably towny...

Are you able to describe the conflict that leads you here?

I interpreted Lime Coke's "scared" as a lighthearted (so, "jokey") way of expressing a genuine sentiment -- unease about Wiml.

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:05 am Also @JaggedJimmyJay here are my last 2 finished games one town one mafia at MU, not turbos/mashes/anons (because I played 2 anon games, 2 mashes and 3 turbos but they are not regular games)

Season 10, Game 6: The Good, the Bad, and the Scummy (The Mafia Championship)
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ionship%29

Mafia League: S2 M1G1
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ue-S2-M1G1

Thank you for these. On a quick scan, you made reads on SCCHAMP and Abgiail/Zenon (in each respective game) early on that fit the theme I had asked about earlier. That's a nice boost for you.

I always comb my hair and apply deodorant before entering the game thread.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 3:46 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:49 pm I’m considering a Michelle/Wiml “difference check”. That term is too strong for where I stand, but some softer version of that.

Expand on your thought process behind this, please?

I had two conflicting impressions: Michelle's reads were hard to buy, and you seemed a bit opportunistic in pushing it the way that you did. That'd suggest one mafia between the two of you without clarity about who. It was more a hunch that I was mulling over, and the term "difference check" generally implies more certitude -- so "softer version of that". I can see you both being town too.

@Lime Coke do you have an initial impression of Wiml?

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:40 am I think while is night in America the thread will be dead anyway so I am waiting for new inputs before posting more.

If it’s late at you, go to sleep, everyone!

Thank you for caring more about my wellbeing than I care about my wellbeing.

I like the general vibe of Lime Coke's posts and think he sounds fine. I hesitate to pull the town trigger, because the falcon vote is like a direct shot into my green pile. That doesn't make him mafia or even wrong, but it's something I have to reconcile.

Something good
falcon45ca
Kate
Epignosis
Michelle

Undecided
Abigail
Lime Coke
Wiml
Roxy

Nothing
DrWilgy
Quin

I'm at something like this. The names are not ordered within groups, and positions are tenuous. I am less confident in all of these than I would like to be, but one must start somewhere.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:31 amDoesn't seem to care about his vote.

His question towards Epi voting Quinn didn't feel like something he was trying to use to solve Epi and didn't look like he cared about the response.

Understood, thanks. I'll stow my thoughts until falcon responds to this.

Michelle feels better. It's somewhat unusual for someone that I had suspicions of to show up and then change my mind about someone else if my suspicion was right.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:26 am Whom I THINK can be a wolf is...

....

....

THIS GUY!!!

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

I'd love to hear more about that.

I think I understand how Epignosis is playing so far, and if so that's a good thing for him. I don't want to expand on that yet.

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:22 am My take is the oposite. She came, said a non energetic hi, saw a wagon and hopped in without any other logic behind that it have to contain a wolf and choosing the actual wagon because why not.

1. Wolves need to have to show activity so they will start by supporting any wagon on a townie that it's there.
2. The addition at the so called wagon analysis is so forced, "not me", and psychologically implies manipulative intention.
3. I am sorry you don't observe the pocketing attitude she has while she agrees with your Michelle/ Wiml not aligned.

I am putting my vote down on her and I would do it for any other wagon she would put her vote on as third vote for no reason, but I am doing it with more conviction because I have TMI on my alignament.

[VOTE: Abigail] aubergine

I can understand this perspective, and in an ironic sense the validity in "one of these people is mafia" can be applied to her as much as to you or Wiml. Perhaps there's self-awareness in that.

I'll remove my town read on her for now. I don't have much confidence in it.

Hi Lime Coke. Please be as town as possible as soon as possible.

Mafia Abigail in Hotdog Fingers was a bit of a wet noodle and posted a ton of off-topic silliness. There's a bit more serious business in her initial posts here. It's difficult to draw a good comparison this early though.

This game needs more meat.

The contrary view for Abigail is that she is not engaged or energized in this thread, and that's a stark difference to recent town games. I don't recall seeing her play as mafia and would need to snoop around to determine how meaningful that is.

I'd also say there's an element of "mindmeld" in my view of Abigail. While my rationale may not align with hers, I had been considering a similar "difference check" angle for Michelle/Wiml that left me in a similar place to the assertion she made about the wagon.

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:00 am Jay at the moment when you voiced your town read on Abigail these were her posts.
What in these have AI content from your PoV?
@JaggedJimmyJay

It's like I tried to describe in the other post: her vote for you and view of your wagon (that either you or one of your voters is mafia) struck me as a real thing.

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:31 pm I very rarely give qualification or much reason, but falcon doesn't bound into the game talking about actual game stuff as wolf. And I can't remember wold falcon ever being on eof the first voter, which he just became when he voted Michelle. So my read on him remains civ.

Me and falcon, town core. Lol.

My town lean for Kate was pretty much just believing that this explanation was authentic. I don't know Kate terribly well and will be careful with that, but it's my initial impression.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 10:27 pm ☆Princess Abigail☆

This is mafia. Let's go.

I’m just acknowledging your beef here. I will wait for her to answer before I do anything with it.

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 10:04 pm No lol I was just joking. But in general I fins that most of the early loud players are 90% civ.

Bummer. I would have enjoyed following that lead.

I can expand on my view of Kate after she's had a chance to answer my previous question. No rush.

To expand on my town read of Abigail, refer to the above spoiler. The initial vote means little on its own, but coupled with the follow-up, a concrete and meaningful strategy is visible. Abigail joined the game to find two votes already on Michelle (falcon and Wiml), and determined that this is mafia-indicative for someone in that trio -- so she voted for one of them (reasonably, the one already receiving votes). I believe I have seen this precise rationale from Abigail in the past, and it's a unique sort of methodology that I think she shares with the DrWilgy types of the world. The rationale is generally either a member of the mafia team has fumbled the bag with an awkward entry, or town is getting railroaded and mafia are chomping at the bit to make it worse. It's not necessarily a philosophy I believe in myself, but I believe that Abigail believes in it. I'm also not sure that's the direction she is likely to go immediately upon entering the game if she is mafia.

I also like her gentle resistance to my confidence about falcon, even as she town reads falcon herself. Healthy skepticism of vocal thread motion is a good thing if done responsibly, and Abigail did so responsibly.

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*

Is this to suggest you view everyone that has posted so far as civilians?

That’s fine, Abigail, regarding falcon. I wouldn’t use the word “lock” either. He’s just the player I’m most comfortable with so far.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:08 pm Congratulations on finally getting a civilian role, JJJ.

Now I have a post.

It’s liberating. How can you tell?

In a 9v2 game, we have three mistakes available without losing the game.

Add three mistakes to the number of mafia (2) to get your target POE pool size of five.

Five correct town reads not including oneself constitutes a complete solve (the remaining five form the POE pool).

These things may be obvious to everyone. I want us to remain mindful anyway.

I have a confident town read (falcon) and two decent town leans (Kate and Abigail). At least two more bright shining civilians would be spectacular.

My initial impressions of both Kate and Abigail are positive.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:47 pm Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml


One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.

I’m considering a Michelle/Wiml “difference check”. That term is too strong for where I stand, but some softer version of that.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:40 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 4:58 pm To the best of my memory, this is the first time I have been a civilian in a Syndicate game since 2021. I am probably going to be my worstbest self and play at full throttle, as though this is the last chance I will ever have to solve a Mafia game.

Come friends, and let us make mincemeat of malevolent mountainous mafia.

Wait... this is the last game your ever playing?

That’s unlikely. But I play rarely, so my next town game could be a long way away for all I know.

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:37 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:31 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:27 pm Is this the beginning...of...it...?

Not sure what you mean!

Your analytic methods that you told me to watch for!

Oh I see. Nope that’ll come a bit later, those are just links per Wiml’s request.

Thanks for expanding, Kate. Good enough for now, and I agree with your conclusion.

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:27 pm Is this the beginning...of...it...?

Not sure what you mean!

I'm going to go for a walk, but I will still poke around on mobile if a newcomer arrives and wishes to spitball.

Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 6:21 pm I will explain why I make GTH reads at SoD: it's to see reactions.
They don't have bad reactions, both of them, insta voting me for making an undeserved AI judgement.
You, otoh, you are focused on your image and the way you present yourself and your reads. It may be that you turned into a pedantic player who needs rainbow reads for 4 players.
Or you want to show off and the focus on how you look it's your way to impress the other townies?

@Wiml could you please share your impressions of this post?

Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 6:34 pm Not now, I am phone posting in bed in darkness and I am close to the dreaming realm. Tomorrow and if I forget please ask again.

It's 1:30 am for me

By all means, it's not that important right this moment. Sleep well!

Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 6:29 pm One more thing sir, if you have a suspicion why don’t you use your vote?

I don't always believe that spamming votes onto people is the best course of action. When people get heavily wagoned right after a game starts, they can get thrown off-balance even when they are town and struggle to find their way back. I'm giving you space to breathe and play.