The Syndicate

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:16 am Maybe I should’ve saved myself, idk, but I thought the game was easier if one of me or Epi was dead cause by N2 we were pretty well tunneled I think. Or I was at least

Yeah, I wonder if we had missed that kill we actually would have won bc we could have gone along with Epi's theory.

We weighed that decision quite a bit (and also were terrified that you would self save)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:56 pm@salami

Aren't you vegetarian

Gottem guys, Jay just outed himself as my teammate!

I did of course intend to keep Jack around anyway, since he had been townreading me -- though I assume that would have changed once he read more, hahaha. I didn't see that lynch coming, was expecting to bring him into endgame with me for the hell of it. It's funny that the unlynchable was lynched though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:00 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:45 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:33 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:29 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:04 pm Although I do feel more confident in a Michelle lynch than nutella. [VOTE: Michelle] aubergine
Ugh this is so transparent. You are very happy with how stable my wagon is, you've had your winning mislynch given to you on a platter.
Why have you treated it like a source of utter boredom
What? I've been trying. You and Epi seem decided.
I mean you don't strike me as someone who is about to lose the game in 15 minutes

I am though

I mean, basically.

Really though, good job guys. This was a really fun game. It really felt like we had a decent fighting chance until this phase when I became too obvious, lol. I knew it was over when Jay finally pointed out my oopsie from that first counterclaim business -- I quickly realized I wouldn't have any explanation for that once both town PRs flipped. Guess I should have kept Jack around (though I didn't know he was the tracker; hadn't actually used the role cop yet). It was really fun knowing that Nanook was a doctor all along though, lol (I figured out he was the doctor during said initial claimgate, when he was asking whether I was actually counterclaiming jay

) We really laughed maniacally when Epi had that wild theory about Nanook

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:33 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:29 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:04 pm Although I do feel more confident in a Michelle lynch than nutella. [VOTE: Michelle] aubergine
Ugh this is so transparent. You are very happy with how stable my wagon is, you've had your winning mislynch given to you on a platter.
Why have you treated it like a source of utter boredom

What? I've been trying. You and Epi seem decided.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:04 pm Although I do feel more confident in a Michelle lynch than nutella. [VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

Ugh this is so transparent. You are very happy with how stable my wagon is, you've had your winning mislynch given to you on a platter.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:58 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:56 pm Fair enough. I'm more or less treating them equally and haven't had a specific reason to change (it's sort of looked like my lynch is a done deal) but if I'm more likely to be able to self-pres this way, works for me.

[VOTE: long con] aubergine
beep boop

lol

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:53 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:52 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:49 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:49 pm I think you'd try to look similar but it would become evident that you weren't really considering every possibility as you have made an effort to do here. I think you'd fabricate those interactive analyses fairly closely but you'd lock onto one suspect a lot more easily and not be as willing to listen/dialogue with all the players
If I am a civilian, why is your vote on Michelle?
I don't follow
You suggested she was your favored vote out of some vague compatibility with me that Long Con does not share. If you've granted that I am a civilian, then that dynamic should be effectively meaningless.

Fair enough. I'm more or less treating them equally and haven't had a specific reason to change (it's sort of looked like my lynch is a done deal) but if I'm more likely to be able to self-pres this way, works for me.

[VOTE: long con] aubergine

Do you want to lynch LC?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:49 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:49 pm I think you'd try to look similar but it would become evident that you weren't really considering every possibility as you have made an effort to do here. I think you'd fabricate those interactive analyses fairly closely but you'd lock onto one suspect a lot more easily and not be as willing to listen/dialogue with all the players
If I am a civilian, why is your vote on Michelle?

I don't follow

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:46 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:45 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:24 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:03 pmI did exactly what I should for lylo analysis.
What one "should" do is in the fingers of the typer, but I really don't see anything resembling LyLo solving, LyLo desperation, LyLo frustration, or anything. Frankly if you're a civilian, I'd expect you to be way up my ass right now about something or another. You rarely trust me anymore when you're good. Why am I clear? You opened the day with tinfoil about me and the Nanook kill. Where'd it go?
Your lylo behavior more or less convinced me you are in this to genuinely solve it.
What do you think I'd do if I was a mafioso?

I think you'd try to look similar but it would become evident that you weren't really considering every possibility as you have made an effort to do here. I think you'd fabricate those interactive analyses fairly closely but you'd lock onto one suspect a lot more easily and not be as willing to listen/dialogue with all the players

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:41 pm Being in Zoom must be substantially less exciting than it sounds.

As a kid I fantasized of being one of the kids on the show Zoom. This Zoom is much less exciting

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:24 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:03 pmI did exactly what I should for lylo analysis.
What one "should" do is in the fingers of the typer, but I really don't see anything resembling LyLo solving, LyLo desperation, LyLo frustration, or anything. Frankly if you're a civilian, I'd expect you to be way up my ass right now about something or another. You rarely trust me anymore when you're good. Why am I clear? You opened the day with tinfoil about me and the Nanook kill. Where'd it go?

Your lylo behavior more or less convinced me you are in this to genuinely solve it.

Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:58 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:12 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:55 amNow she's voting me in a post where is just a bare vote (Iso-ed her just now to see this). A villager don't suspect everyone in lylo and don't put naked votes. A too large pool is sign of scuminess.
Please expand on this point for me.
She said I am scum with LC and if you and Epi are scum then the game is lost (i didn't search now, it's what I remember). That means she doesn't show trust in no one and can turn against anyone, meaning she keeps all options open.
Can be a townie at lylo not trying to scumhunt and throwing accusations at everyone?

I don't understand how you are getting this interpretation at all. You're saying essentially the opposite of what I meant. I am not throwing accusations at everyone, what I meant by that was that I am basically clearing Epi and (slightly less so) Jay at this point. What I said about accepting the loss if they've fooled me is more or less the opposite of "leaving my options open." I have determined via POE that you and LC are the most likely scum team. I did exactly what I should for lylo analysis. You are purposefully misinterpreting to paint me as bad.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:36 pm
This is sketchy. First, Michelle wouldn't kill MP. Then, she'd let her partner kill MP, because everyone else in the game is insane if they don't kill MP. More likely that Michelle was feeling the noose close in just a little, and had to say something other than "Yeah, I guess I am one of the more likely players to kill MP". She actually says she wouldn't kill him, before saying she doesn't know him. So, why wouldn't she kill him if she doesn't know him? Where did the idea that he's a superplayer that MUST be killed immediately even come from?

Idk man, you tell me.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:48 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:44 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:41 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:40 pm LC turned around pretty quickly onto the Michelle train.
Am I on the Michelle train now?
You spoke as if you felt sure she was scum. Perhaps it was hypothetical but it didn't read that way in context.
It was about understanding Dizzy's perspective on why "you don't have a reason to think I'm scum" could look bad. Michelle accused Dizzy of illogic, and I don't agree. My opinion on it is that it's slightly scummy-looking when framed like that, but I'm not hopping on the train over it.

The awkwardness of this exchange checks out with LC/Michelle being teammates. I called LC out for wording/framing that assumed Michelle had a scum mindset, and he backed off of that with a vague waffle on how he actually felt about Michelle. Like, maybe he's the one who felt his teammate was "caught for the wrong reasons" by Dizzy.

Not sure what more I can do at this point, but I'm town. I think it has to be LC and Michelle. If Jay (or god forbid Epi) is bad, I'm accepting the L.

I'm playing D&D for the next few hours so I'll be quiet for a while but I will make every effort to use the rest of the phase

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:15 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:12 pm [VOTE: michelle] aubergine
The basis for your vote is my report on my own compatibility -- something I have no reason to think about at all until you ask me.

It's not based upon your review of that compatibility on your own terms.

What?

I'm lazy. I'll do more looking into it.

We absolutely need consensus among the three townies at EOD, so I will obviously switch to LC if need be.

[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:09 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:04 pm JaggedJimmyJay
What's the number one reason you can't be mafia teammates with Long Con?
What's the number one reason you can't be mafia teammates with Michelle?
It should be pretty apparent that I am not Long Con's teammate given not only the violence between the two of us, but the violence that preceded between he and Dizzy. It's not just mutual distrust -- it's righteous indignation, it's pissing me off with sarcasm, and it's my initial belief that Nanook's red check on him was real.

When I've accused Michelle, her responses have often stopped short of full-on No-U. If she is a mafioso, she has shown trepidation in returning fire -- perhaps fearing the volume of my voice at EODs.

I don't recall much violence between him and Dizzy. It was mostly softball as far as I could tell, until Dizzy ended up voting for him right before you replaced in, and you made sure that vote didn't stick when it mattered. That being said, I do recall your fiery spat later on, and yeah, that probably wasn't scum theatre since you seemed legitimately frustrated.

Your argument about Michelle doesn't do much for me. That sounds like a reasonable for her to treat you if you were teammates.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:04 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:59 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:54 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:53 pm Your instincts are wrong Like, yeah, I can see why my LC interactions don't look great, because I'm never super confident about my read of him. Like I said I've always had a hard time reading him. He's just been sort of generally in my POE for most of the game.
You're no longer in a game state where you have to wiggle about on instincts. There is a wealth of analytic evidence, whatever you may think of it. What do you think is the best case that Long Con is a mafioso?
His reaction to Nanook's fake peek didn't feel natural.
He is compatible with Michelle, who is my other top suspect. (Yeah that's POE not a reason but whatever, you made the analysis so I'm not going to restate all the points there.)
His relation to the Mac wagon (both as a participant and a beneficiary) looked sketchy.
Who should be lynched first?

Depends on your answers to my above questions. Whichever of LC or Michelle is more compatible with you has a higher chance of being scum (even if I think the team is probably exactly those two, I have to weigh that in somehow).

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]
What's the number one reason you can't be mafia teammates with Long Con?
What's the number one reason you can't be mafia teammates with Michelle?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:55 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:53 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:49 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:46 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:35 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:39 pm has Jackofhearts2005 seen all the claiming stuff? Jack we need to know if you have any counterclaims to whatever is going on here based on the matrix
Remember the conversation about role fishing?
Oh come on. I was so nervous lynching him when he wasn't here and I hadn't seen any evidence that he was aware of any of the claiming that had occurred. You're imposing scum motive on something that clearly came from a town mindset. I still wish he had logged in before eod and said anything.
That's a bad sentence.
why?
You didn't have to be role fishing. It's one possible interpretation among others.

When you tell me that it was clearly coming from a town mindset though, I actually snort. Give me a break.

Well it's clear to me.

Surely you were also frustrated at Jack's absence? Or is your mindset not town?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:54 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:53 pm Your instincts are wrong Like, yeah, I can see why my LC interactions don't look great, because I'm never super confident about my read of him. Like I said I've always had a hard time reading him. He's just been sort of generally in my POE for most of the game.
You're no longer in a game state where you have to wiggle about on instincts. There is a wealth of analytic evidence, whatever you may think of it. What do you think is the best case that Long Con is a mafioso?

His reaction to Nanook's fake peek didn't feel natural.
He is compatible with Michelle, who is my other top suspect. (Yeah that's POE not a reason but whatever, you made the analysis so I'm not going to restate all the points there.)
His relation to the Mac wagon (both as a participant and a beneficiary) looked sketchy.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:49 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:46 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:35 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:39 pm has Jackofhearts2005 seen all the claiming stuff? Jack we need to know if you have any counterclaims to whatever is going on here based on the matrix
Remember the conversation about role fishing?
Oh come on. I was so nervous lynching him when he wasn't here and I hadn't seen any evidence that he was aware of any of the claiming that had occurred. You're imposing scum motive on something that clearly came from a town mindset. I still wish he had logged in before eod and said anything.
That's a bad sentence.

why?

Your instincts are wrong

Like, yeah, I can see why my LC interactions don't look great, because I'm never super confident about my read of him. Like I said I've always had a hard time reading him. He's just been sort of generally in my POE for most of the game.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:35 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:39 pm has Jackofhearts2005 seen all the claiming stuff? Jack we need to know if you have any counterclaims to whatever is going on here based on the matrix
Remember the conversation about role fishing?

Oh come on. I was so nervous lynching him when he wasn't here and I hadn't seen any evidence that he was aware of any of the claiming that had occurred. You're imposing scum motive on something that clearly came from a town mindset. I still wish he had logged in before eod and said anything.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:25 pm
You seemed like you were going somewhere specific with that, beyond a "what the hell" kind of experiment, until Nanook clarified the matrix.

Nah that was all part of the bit, I didn't want to outright fakeclaim something and Nanook was being too serious about it so I let it go.

My cluelessness about your "cop hunt" thing after that was real though. I was confused as hell.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:12 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:10 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:02 pm /
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:43 pm If I'm understanding the matrix correctly Jay is lying.

Shit just got spicy.
nutella tell me about this.

This was when I fake-claimed cop. You knew I was lying per the matrix. How?
lol, that was just spice.
Nah I need more. What spice?

Idk, I wanted to see what you'd say. I was but a clueless vanilla who wanted to have some fun with the setup. With all that epistemological stuff I was talking about, I thought having a dispute like that might flush out something to work with.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:02 pm /
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:43 pm If I'm understanding the matrix correctly Jay is lying.

Shit just got spicy.
nutella tell me about this.

This was when I fake-claimed cop. You knew I was lying per the matrix. How?

lol, that was just spice.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:36 pm
A civilian can technically still theorize innocent motivations for Nanook to fake that check, but such a theory has to completely supersede any instinctive what the fuck? that's bullshit responses that may otherwise emerge. I'll also note that when confronted with lesser "offenses" at other portions of the game (e.g. Dizzy's under-explained suspicion of him), his response was more along the lines of what the fuck? that's bullshit.

It's a curious handling of Nanook, and I could see it as bad.

Hmm yeah that's a good point. He seemed to sense that Nanook was town fishing for reactions, rather than immediately flipping out on Nanook for fake-claiming. I can imagine LC just being that perceptive and figuring that getting reactions from it is worthwhile, but my instinct is that he didn't have the natural reaction a townie would have in that situation.

Epi, you're wrong about me dude. Keep doing research on the others, I think we can get there. I'm town and want to get this right as much as you do, but if I'm lynched we lose. Responses in purple.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:37 am The bad news is that my theory was proved incorrect and I do not get to gloat.

The good news is that my theory was proved incorrect and I get the opportunity to get this right, and that I have a 50% chance of being right.

++++

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:43 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:33 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:20 pm I doubt Epignosis kills MP when the latter is firmly in his camp and when it's his first game in a while.

Cop hunting may break this logic; I'll have to determine the veracity of such a thing.
This should effectively clear me.
Ugh I hate this argument but it's true.
A civilian would be happy to be able to confidently recognize a fellow civilian. nutella here is gloomy for it. It's as if she begrudgingly must remove me from the dwindling pool of possible civilian lynches rather than celebrate what she even admits is the truth.

You misunderstand. I hate the argument because it's borderline angleshooty/out-of-game. It's not a good reason to remove someone from a POE. I had suspected you for a while, and now I townread you for other reasons so this is kind of moot but at the time that was the main reason to remove you from the POE and it was lame.

++++

I want to talk about nutella's interactions with Long Con. I don't wish to quote all of them. They are there if you want to see them.

Page 1 interactions are what I would categorize as "softball." Neither one looks to be making an honest effort to sort the other. It's a token effort, if that.

Page 2:

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:41 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:32 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:25 pm Why are Dizzy and I wrong about Long Con?

You have five minutes. Answer immediately and with brevity.
Answer me.
Even after all these years I'm not great at reading LC, so he's sorta null for me, but his posts have an independent/unafraid to speak his mind vibe. I don't see a scum agenda.
You could put any name in this sentence, change the pronouns, and it could not be disputed. This post was made Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:41 pm EST.

Not true, I specifically have known LC longer than anyone else in this game and specifically have a worse record of reading him than most other players.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:57 pm nutella, assume for a moment that Epignosis doesn't exist. Who are you lynching now?
Ugh probably LC but i don't feel great about it. I just have more reasons to townread everyone else.
This post was made Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:07 pm EST. Folks, that is a differential of twenty-six minutes. nutella went from "I don't see a scum agenda" to Long Con is her second choice for a Day 1 lynch. LC did not post at all in that twenty-six minute window for him to have done anything for her to change her mind over.

I was townreading pretty much everyone but you at that point. He didn't stand out and therefore was a candidate.

That was Day 1. Here is a post from Day 2:

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:42 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:18 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:15 pm Yeah I'm getting unusually sketchy vibes from a lot of Michelle's posts. This far into the game and I haven't felt the screen scream "Michelle is town" at me yet -- means she's probably not.

[VOTE: michelle] aubergine
you ignored me until now. As expected.
No? I believe I've stated a few times that you were in my poe and that you haven't caused me to townread you
"You haven't caused me to townread you," as though the burden lies completely with Michelle for how nutella views her. Again, she could say this about any one of us and who are we to dispute it?

That's less important than the fact that nutella named LC as bad saying, "I just have more reasons to townread everyone else" Day 1 but on Day 2 to Michelle says "I believe I've stated a few times that you were in my poe and that you haven't caused me to townread you."

If you look at other games I've played with Michelle, this is a specific way that I treat her. Maybe it's unfair, but I have a particular way of spotting Michelle's town meta that has proved accurate in the past. If I don't find her townieness to be obvious, she is a candidate by default.
++++

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:07 pm Sorry for being obtuse. I guess I still don't see the point of whatever you're doing. Another mysterious Jay exercise.
This isn't related to LC, but I found it noteworthy. Before JJJ can even do whatever it is he is doing, nutella implied it was of little value.

I was so confused at that whole thing. I legitimately did not understand what he was doing.
++++

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:02 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:38 am This is why Down With Ketchup is the one true way.
You can have both though!! I regularly post as Jack does, responding to things as I read while missing current thread information, but I still make every effort to read every post in the game so I don't miss anything.

Anyway [VOTE: lc] aubergine since it looks like nanook means it. Still think Michelle is extremely likely the other one.
The tone here is one of resignation rather than exuberance. Note that nutella sees fit to make sure Michelle is the follow up candidate without going into why it is "extremely likely." It's as though nutella senses that LC is caught and is going to be revealed and she needs to attach a name to that revelation.

Not resignation. I saw the cop claim, figured that would be the lynch because even if LC wasn't my top suspect, if there was a red peek on him that makes things pretty clear cut. Now we know there was no peek. But at the time I had no reason not to believe Nanook. Whereas the mafia would since they would have already known there wasn't really a cop, right?

I mean, it'll be funny if LC was mafia all along and Nanook just guessed it

Just an observation at this point:

In page 3, Long Con is mentioned three times (and LC is mentioned 16). Michelle is mentioned 53 (!) times. I realize there is room for some of those 53 mentions being other people quoting or naming Michelle, but that is an astounding difference.

Here is one of those 53:

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:43 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:20 pm I mean, Nut, how did you know Mac is villager when everyone wanted him lynched?

Why didn't you answer at my questions?

Why you expected a wagon to be formed to vote me?
Mac was fairly obvious town imo. Like I said I don't think he would do something like that big case on d1 as scum. Also he wasn't around so the cfd on him was just rude

What questions? Please direct me

No idea what that last thing is about
If Mac was obviously good, then we should see evidence that nutella made an effort Day 1 to persuade others to vote away from Mac.

No, that's ridiculous. I didn't expect people to suddenly start voting Mac in the last three minutes of the phase. At no point did I even think that was remotely likely until it was too late, so I had no opportunity to try to prevent it.

Twenty-two mentions of MacDougall on page 1 without a single word of defense (other than blindly agreeing with him about me).

The defense of Mac on page 2 consists of:

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:24 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:17 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:11 pm I want to lynch Mac. People should join me.
His absence may say something.
My read on him was town. But i would like from him to post more, and now I don't have a reason to defend my read.
It is 5AM for him.

I don't get the case on him, he seems like town Mac to me.
Is this not enough of an indication that I wasn't anywhere near thinking lynching Mac was a good idea??

Reminding us of his time zone and stating that he "seems" good.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:26 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:19 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:17 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:11 pm I want to lynch Mac. People should join me.
His absence may say something.
My read on him was town. But i would like from him to post more, and now I don't have a reason to defend my read.
He’s a much better town player than this. I town read his poop flinging in the moment, upon reflection earlier today I read it as NAI, and he’s continued to do all of jackshit since. I don’t get any sense at all that he’s trying to figure out alignments either, which means all he’s done so fling poo. That is more compatible with a scum Day 1 than a town one, considering the state of POE because I believe a lot of other players have town cleared themselves out of Day 1 lynch contention, including you now as well.
I don't think scum Mac puts that much effort into a case on d1.
Which is probably easily disproved (JJJ could do so I think), but whatever. The "I don't think" does not imply "Mac was obviously town."

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:31 pm Wtf this poll what happened yall mac is still asleep
Reminding us again that it's against the rules to lynch people in their sleep.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:32 pm If Mac flips town I am scrutinizing MP and Nanook for this gross ass cfd.
"If Mac flips town."

That doesn't sound like it was an obvious thing at all. But at the same time, it sounds like nutella already knows the outcome here.

Alright, maybe I should have been more adamant about my town read of Mac before, because yeah I find him fairly easy to read and was pretty sure he'd flip town. No TMI, just strong gut. I had no time during the crazy last few minutes to even react to the vote changes.

Page four shows nutella attempting to link anybody she can to Long Con.

The obvious problem here is that if you are sure LC is bad with someone else, the right course of action is to lynch the common link first and go from there. This is not happening.

I think my suspicion of LC has been on about equal ground with my suspicion of Michelle for most of the game, and I would have liked for either of them to emerge as the main wagon on D2 but for whatever reason that didn't happen, through some miscalculations a few of us reached the conclusion that Jack was the best choice (once again while he wasn't even around) and I found that plausible enough to go along with. Yeah, I haven't fought hard to push a wagon on either LC or Michelle, I guess I've just lacked confidence. And I still do, because I haven't figured out which permutation of two of LC/Jay/Michelle is most likely, so there isn't one "common link" that gives me the best chance of being right. I'm not there yet.

I submit that the mafia team for this ballgame is nutella and Long Con.

I will explore the latter when opportunity presents itself.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:46 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:48 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:53 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:41 am Then he should be Night killed tonight and we'll know, right?
That’s one way.
this creeps me out folks.
I doubt that creeps you out. Silly shade #3543245654

This is the first thing Jay says after the night post. Immediate indirect accusation of Michelle. Idk it smells kinda poopy.

Huh. Looking at that again made me want to explore the possible Jay/LC world. Jay replaced in somewhere in that day after Dizzy had voted for LC, and he eventually landed on the Mac wagon (which can be interpreted as a save of LC, or of Epi, or of me as we were all at two votes before). I just looked through Dizzy's posts before Jay replaced him and his LC interactions are not particularly inspiring. I'll look further into Jay/LC interactions post-replacement and see how I feel, but I'm thinking that team is increasingly likely since Michelle seems to be actually trying to solve here.

Ugh since I can't trust Jay and since he won't do his own interactive analyses I guess I have to be responsible and look at all his potential pairings. If the team is just Michelle and LC my job is easier

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:34 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:49 pm Michelle and nutella are my call for the last baddies.
Are you villager for real? You refused to talk to me overnight and when I saw your last answer I gave up to talk to you :/

Is no way you can think I am with Nutella never in this world. And I am never scum.

I can tell you why. One is paranoia. I am cool when I am mafia, but I am a paranoid and often wrong as villager.
Villagers are wrong, they are making mistakes because they think their AI is enough to protect them.
I was homestly following my reads and I wasn't cowardly hiding no matter what.

When I left in the previous day, I was upset for real. But I came back when I calmed myself.

I was pushed by every single player alive. I am lonely, no one backs me up. I don't know who is villager because of the lack of trust I received all game. Usually I can find someone to trust...

My posts are out of my scum range. I am villager, and I was set for mislynch from long time ago. Mafia choose happy to push Jack instead of me because he was absent and didn't catch up properly and that was against him. They took advantage of the village who was so framed. Jack knows alot more than me about any player here so when the possibility of his mislynch appeared my wagon disolved.

The thing with 'who would kill M7' is wrong. Is made to clear someone and accuse at random. I said and I repet, every sane mafia would kill him because he cleared too many villagers He was present in the game and noticed Svs and me as villagers. I am sorry I didn't trust his read on Jack.
Nanook said he can self target but I know not every doctor can or he finished his shots already.

M7 read me villager. Nanook wasn't sure but didn't want me dead. Jack supected me but wasn't sure I am bad.

Mac's case was ignored all game like he is not one of this site's MVP :/ He didn't suspect me. What do you think now about this?

I exposed what i think shows me for you I am villager because for me I am lock town since the get go.

Sorry, I want to trust you on tone but we have a very narrow POE and I am seeing very little available possibility that you aren't scum here. Even then this isn't much of a defense, the fact that Mac was townreading you at the very beginning means nothing to me at this stage of the game. If you are town it has to be two of Jay, LC, and Epi, and the only way you can convince me you're town is if you convince me which of those universes we're in.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:36 pm My theory was cool but shit and I'm a big enough boy to admit that.

Do you think it's still possible Jay is bad?

Hmmmmm

Still think Epi is legit or this would be really weird. So looking at two of Michelle/LC/Jay. My gut says Michelle and LC, but what if Jay really is bad and capitalized on Epi's association by killing nanook to make himself look good? Worth considering imo.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:29 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:28 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:27 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:26 pm You're mafia. I don't have to have a nice conversation with you.
1.000 ----> .833
Not if Epi is bad. You seem sure he's not.
I don't think he killed MP. If anyone in this game would have the same motivations to refuse that as I would, it's him.

I'm pissed that he thinks I did that, but whatever.

I don't really like how you keep coming back to that one point. It's bordering on angleshooting and citing out-of-game character as evidence. Like, you're probably right, but you're harping on it a bit much this late in the game when we have other stuff to use.

Maybe Epi is onto something. Something's not quite right with you.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:21 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:19 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:16 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:34 pm So we’re in world C

I’m the 2 shot doc, MP got strongmanned N1. I thought fake claiming a red and seeing how things broke would open up the game, especially as I knew two people would know the check wasn’t real. My plan was to then claim tracker at night and try to get my second save off.

Which is partly why I wanted nutella TKed, the way she jumped on the check smelled like someone setting up “TK the ‘red’ check then murder the fake cop.”
I believe Nanook. I don't see a fake doc-claim including this part about MP. He tried to protect MP night 1, and the kill still went through. If this is fake, then I applaud his attention to creative detail.
Talk to me. World C would mean there's a two shot doctor. Right?
No that's not right. I rescind my grin.

what is this

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:12 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:10 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:07 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:05 pm I don't even mean specifically relating to the role cops. I mean, with a matrix, it seems likely that people are going to play with the possible worlds and mess with people's heads about it. No?
There's probably some precedent for that somewhere, but no it's not what I envision from a matrix setup. The primary advantage of a matrix is that it enables a diverse array of balanced setups to be thrown into a randomized rotation -- one can run a lot of games with the same matrix and have them go a bunch of different directions.
Come on. This is basic epistemology. If the only purpose is to create different setups, you can just pick the setup and then have the specific setup be known to the players. The mere fact that the matrix is the only public knowledge we have creates avenues for catching people in counterclaim traps based on which universes we may or may not be in.
You're right, and whether you intended it or not that's my point:

The matrix does not facilitate effective pretending between setups (in the absence of janitors at least), because there will always be someone out there who knows something is wack. That's the mechanism I keep referring to. Mafia members may still be inclined to pull shenanigans; weirder things have happened. Typically though that'd be a desperation play and not a well-oiled gambit. It just doesn't work very well.

Ok, I see what you mean. I guess it's reasonable that you didn't expect a townie specifically do pull weird shit. Nanook is just too many levels ahead of the rest of us I guess.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:07 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:05 pm I don't even mean specifically relating to the role cops. I mean, with a matrix, it seems likely that people are going to play with the possible worlds and mess with people's heads about it. No?
There's probably some precedent for that somewhere, but no it's not what I envision from a matrix setup. The primary advantage of a matrix is that it enables a diverse array of balanced setups to be thrown into a randomized rotation -- one can run a lot of games with the same matrix and have them go a bunch of different directions.

Come on. This is basic epistemology. If the only purpose is to create different setups, you can just pick the setup and then have the specific setup be known to the players. The mere fact that the matrix is the only public knowledge we have creates avenues for catching people in counterclaim traps based on which universes we may or may not be in.

Jay: I'm allergic to fancy play syndrome
Also Jay: *makes setup extremely conducive to shit like what nanook just did*

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:04 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:03 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:02 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:00 pm JJJ, what's the point of mafia role cops? You're still not talking about them.
I already answered this. Read or get off the pot. When I placed role cops in this matrix, their purpose was to enable mafia to identify power roles and then kill them. Pretend to be in a different setup was not in my thought process, and that's because it would be a dumb decision.

Okay actually though I have a hard time believing that it didn't occur to you. Seems like kind of the entire point of having a matrix, no?
Many matrices don't even have role cops. That's not what I think about when I think about role cops. Their primary function is to identify the biggest threats to them, and that's why I put them in there.

I don't even mean specifically relating to the role cops. I mean, with a matrix, it seems likely that people are going to play with the possible worlds and mess with people's heads about it. No?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:02 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:02 pm Epi I don't understand your point about role cops. Like I said. If Nanook is fake claiming doctor, where's the real one?
Not fucking outing himself. That's where.

Jesus.

Is this Schrodinger's claim?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:02 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:00 pm JJJ, what's the point of mafia role cops? You're still not talking about them.
I already answered this. Read or get off the pot. When I placed role cops in this matrix, their purpose was to enable mafia to identify power roles and then kill them. Pretend to be in a different setup was not in my thought process, and that's because it would be a dumb decision.

Okay actually though I have a hard time believing that it didn't occur to you. Seems like kind of the entire point of having a matrix, no?

Epi I don't understand your point about role cops. Like I said. If Nanook is fake claiming doctor, where's the real one?

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