Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME

[Inawordyes]

mmm bruh

[VOTE: Ilario] aubergine

[nutella]

the vivax ilario hally falcon team is outed lets fucking go

[Inawordyes]

If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not

Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon

yeah

and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing

mm

It's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look here

[nutella]

Does a Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon world make any lick of sense?

It seems a bit too easy, but I see where your head is at and was thinking about the same team a second ago.

the "seems a bit too easy" argument is almost always misapplied

it always feels safer to assume theres a deeper wolf but in reality that kind of paranoia often lets "too easy"/lying-low teams skate by

i think we take this to its logical conclusion as far as it goes and yeet through those three

[nutella]

im feeling the excitement at having actually maybe solved something i really hope we're onto a real breakthrough here

[Seanzie]

If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not

Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon

yeah

and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing

mm

It's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look here

I think the biggest hole in your theory is why they'd expect Vivax to survive. I don't think this was a given.

[nutella]

like we all converged on bad ilario stuff at the same time and worked through the hally stuff as a group, these are the moments i play for

[Inawordyes]

If the team is Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon though

Where does that put Schia and Schia's minposting antics that everybody thought was incredibly scummy at SoD yesterday? It doesn't feel right because I think Schia has to be mafia, I just don't know who to actually replace in that scenario because individually I think there's stronger merit for those three and in combo with each other, whereas Schia is just a weird slot doing weird things in comparison

[Seanzie]

Does a Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon world make any lick of sense?

It seems a bit too easy, but I see where your head is at and was thinking about the same team a second ago.

the "seems a bit too easy" argument is almost always misapplied

it always feels safer to assume theres a deeper wolf but in reality that kind of paranoia often lets "too easy"/lying-low teams skate by

i think we take this to its logical conclusion as far as it goes and yeet through those three

I'm not saying we need to scrap the whole team, I'm just not committing to it as the sole final option, and while I don't have a better team I could give right now, I'd guess the probability of that exact team being right is less than 50%, probably even less than 35%.

[nutella]

Hally's unvote directly saves Falcon from a supposed tie and in theory would chop Jack.

ooh yeah that's another tidbit i hadn't considered/checked the math or timing on. so yeah i think them not just staying on falcon really makes sense as w

[Hally]

well i picked an interesting time to check the thread lol

hi i’m bored at a hannukah party

seems like people figured out i’m a wolf

[Seanzie]

If the team is Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon though

Where does that put Schia and Schia's minposting antics that everybody thought was incredibly scummy at SoD yesterday? It doesn't feel right because I think Schia has to be mafia, I just don't know who to actually replace in that scenario because individually I think there's stronger merit for those three and in combo with each other, whereas Schia is just a weird slot doing weird things in comparison

I looked at Schia's EoD4 minposting antics, and I don't see why it is scummy.

[Inawordyes]

If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not

Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon

yeah

and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing

mm

It's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look here

I think the biggest hole in your theory is why they'd expect Vivax to survive. I don't think this was a given.

I don't have the answer, but knowing that Vivax was Mafia PR, specifically the Scout, then Vivax is the single most-important person on the team to keep alive. Moreso than anybody else there would've been waves and moves made to protect Vivax from getting chopped. There was none of that, it's almost like there was nobody there at EoD to actually control the wagon, and even Vivax was present and didn't do anything about his wagon. That is what's signalling to me that the team didn't expect him to die. The lack of attempt to save your Mafia PR means that you didn't think your Mafia PR needed saving. And either that means that they were overconfident and misread the players on Vivax's wagon, or that the team just wasn't active at all (and if it's Ilario/Hally/Falcon then that's very true, but doesn't explain Vivax's blasé attitude toward his becoming top wagon last-second)

[Seanzie]

well i picked an interesting time to check the thread lol

hi i’m bored at a hannukah party

seems like people figured out i’m a wolf

Ilario claimed tracker and tracked you to Santygrass last night. Any explanation?

[nutella]

If the team is Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon though

Where does that put Schia and Schia's minposting antics that everybody thought was incredibly scummy at SoD yesterday? It doesn't feel right because I think Schia has to be mafia, I just don't know who to actually replace in that scenario because individually I think there's stronger merit for those three and in combo with each other, whereas Schia is just a weird slot doing weird things in comparison

i don't really think schia *has* to be mafia

i think i said at one point they or other minposters could be doing the minimum to stay in and conserve energy and intend to solve later when the game is manageable etc

which seanzie did

downsides to that are that seanzie is now participating quite effectively and schia isn't, and the exact way that schia went about minposting (waiting until exactly eod etc) is sus


they could be mafia and we're wrong on part of the solve but i currently think they fit together in too many ways not to pursue

[Inawordyes]

well i picked an interesting time to check the thread lol

hi i’m bored at a hannukah party

seems like people figured out i’m a wolf

Oh speaking of wolfy pop-ins

Who in wolfchat summoned you, I'm dying to know

[nutella]

well i picked an interesting time to check the thread lol

hi i’m bored at a hannukah party

seems like people figured out i’m a wolf

siri post hally frozen dot jpeg

[Seanzie]

If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not

Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon

yeah

and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing

mm

It's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look here

I think the biggest hole in your theory is why they'd expect Vivax to survive. I don't think this was a given.

I don't have the answer, but knowing that Vivax was Mafia PR, specifically the Scout, then Vivax is the single most-important person on the team to keep alive. Moreso than anybody else there would've been waves and moves made to protect Vivax from getting chopped. There was none of that, it's almost like there was nobody there at EoD to actually control the wagon, and even Vivax was present and didn't do anything about his wagon. That is what's signalling to me that the team didn't expect him to die. The lack of attempt to save your Mafia PR means that you didn't think your Mafia PR needed saving. And either that means that they were overconfident and misread the players on Vivax's wagon, or that the team just wasn't active at all (and if it's Ilario/Hally/Falcon then that's very true, but doesn't explain Vivax's blasé attitude toward his becoming top wagon last-second)

Vivax was clearly trying to take refuge in audacity, so I am not surprised about Vivax's attutide EoD.

I think wolves not being super active at EoD is likely.

[DrWilgy]

Hallys ISO pertaining to Vivax was actually easier than I thought. Guess I was just procrastinating when I'd see there was 8 pages.

So in spite of the pings as Hally noted recently:

gj with the lunch yesterday gang

wish i had pursued my pings on vivax more but oh well

gonna be with family this entire weekend plus monday too so don’t expect much from me this day

just sheep the people who lunched vivax imo, glgl

The only real interaction with Vivax that would indicate this is here:

i don’t think i’ve agreed with any of vivax’s takes btw

i have no experience with him so i can’t say if this should be concerning but just throwing it out there

Very waffley. I feel that if the "pings" were real, there'd be more than this?

The only other real interaction they had was NAI and can be seen here:

[VOTE: lilypetal ] aubergine

Could you explain this vote ?
Or 'would you kindly'?

i thought lily was highly likely to be a real player and she’s done absolutely nothing this game, so when she popped in for EoD i voted her to see what would happen

She seemed rather upset.
Like she just played dead space or something.

vivax why did you ask me that question?

I'd like some other players opinions here.

[Hally]

fwiw the reason i unvoted falcon is cuz i honestly never really had a wolf read on him (or anyone really), i’ve just been voting people who aren’t doing anything and who i don’t town read to pressure them because there’s too many people doing nothing for me to have an accurate read on the game

but i didn’t actually wanna kill falcon without reading the thread unless everyone else wanted to cuz afaik he’s an easy meta read? and i can’t remember ever playing with him so if he’s a wolf i’m relying on other people to kill him for me and it seemed like people didn’t really want to

[nutella]

If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not

Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon

yeah

and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing

mm

It's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look here

I think the biggest hole in your theory is why they'd expect Vivax to survive. I don't think this was a given.

I don't have the answer, but knowing that Vivax was Mafia PR, specifically the Scout, then Vivax is the single most-important person on the team to keep alive. Moreso than anybody else there would've been waves and moves made to protect Vivax from getting chopped. There was none of that, it's almost like there was nobody there at EoD to actually control the wagon, and even Vivax was present and didn't do anything about his wagon. That is what's signalling to me that the team didn't expect him to die. The lack of attempt to save your Mafia PR means that you didn't think your Mafia PR needed saving. And either that means that they were overconfident and misread the players on Vivax's wagon, or that the team just wasn't active at all (and if it's Ilario/Hally/Falcon then that's very true, but doesn't explain Vivax's blasé attitude toward his becoming top wagon last-second)

i actually was thinking about this earlier (when dz defended himself based on vivax being pr) and i really think it doesn't matter that much

scout's utility is pretty low at this point bc we're whittled down to very few npcs left and wolves have probably pretty much figured out the playerlist

theres not really any lasting utility of scout so i think "dont bus the pr" arguments hold very little water here

[nutella]

like it's reached a point where i think once vivax became a significant wagon the wolves probably just resigned to likely losing him and wouldnt want to make waves about it in proportion to the pressure on him

[nutella]

Very waffley. I feel that if the "pings" were real, there'd be more than this?

yeaah thats kinda nothing

[nutella]

Day 6 Vote Count
SoD: #6770 EoD: #0

Not Voting (4): MacDougall (4), DrWilgy (6), Hally (3), Porscha (7)
ilario (3): nutella (77), Seanzie (47), Inawordyes (39)
inawordyes (3): Lumi (10), ilario (8), Michelle (8)
nutella (3): Neon (9), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (7), Jackofhearts2005 (30)
pyxxy (1): DeeZees (35)
unvote (1): pyxxy (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
manny (1): Manny (7)

[DrWilgy]

The fact that Nutella is a wagon feels completely absurd to me.

[Hally]

Hallys ISO pertaining to Vivax was actually easier than I thought. Guess I was just procrastinating when I'd see there was 8 pages.

So in spite of the pings as Hally noted recently:

gj with the lunch yesterday gang

wish i had pursued my pings on vivax more but oh well

gonna be with family this entire weekend plus monday too so don’t expect much from me this day

just sheep the people who lunched vivax imo, glgl

The only real interaction with Vivax that would indicate this is here:

i don’t think i’ve agreed with any of vivax’s takes btw

i have no experience with him so i can’t say if this should be concerning but just throwing it out there

Very waffley. I feel that if the "pings" were real, there'd be more than this?

The only other real interaction they had was NAI and can be seen here:

[VOTE: lilypetal ] aubergine

Could you explain this vote ?
Or 'would you kindly'?

i thought lily was highly likely to be a real player and she’s done absolutely nothing this game, so when she popped in for EoD i voted her to see what would happen

She seemed rather upset.
Like she just played dead space or something.

vivax why did you ask me that question?

I'd like some other players opinions here.

i can tell you what my thought process was regarding those posts if it matters

re: the top one, it just seemed like vivax was stretching to call things wolfy that weren’t really and that can often be a wolfy thing BUT for some archetypes of players it’s more villagery, and i have no idea who vivax is so i didn’t wanna push him for it unless people told me it was abnormal for him, hence why i made the post

re: the bottom one, he asked me some random question about my lily vote and then i answered and then he didn’t seem to actually care about my answer, so i was asking why he asked me that question when it didn’t seem like he actually gave a shit and i forget what he said

tbh there was a part of me that wanted to vote him for it and i considered it but then didn’t cuz iirc i was just really frustrated with neon at the time and didn’t wanna start fighting someone else lol, then i forgot about it

[Hally]

The fact that Nutella is a wagon feels completely absurd to me.

she shouldn’t be but i’m not gonna defend her cuz she has the audacity to wolf read me :curtain:

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Iawy please be kind and make a tl;dr when you post a wall

This please. I like actually physically can't read walls...

[Hally]

the honest truth is that i just got frustrated with this game when half the people weren’t doing anything and then some other people were being flippantly anti-town so i just didn’t give enough of a shit to put in more effort last day

and then this day i have legit been busy

call it a drop off if you want

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

maybe equally willing to go neon

Why? What actually makes me scummy?

[Seanzie]

the honest truth is that i just got frustrated with this game when half the people weren’t doing anything and then some other people were being flippantly anti-town so i just didn’t give enough of a shit to put in more effort last day

and then this day i have legit been busy

call it a drop off if you want

What do you think of Ilario?

[Hally]

the honest truth is that i just got frustrated with this game when half the people weren’t doing anything and then some other people were being flippantly anti-town so i just didn’t give enough of a shit to put in more effort last day

and then this day i have legit been busy

call it a drop off if you want

What do you think of Ilario?

has he even posted? beyond just hitting minimum every day

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I missed any eod stuff but the only thing that pinged me about neon to my memory is when she made the post at start of... yesterday? Saying "good, porscha is still obv towning" because like
Once I'm obv town I dont just 180, so what was the point of saying it? Felt sorta pockety towards me / trying to say something that sounds like they had thoughts early into the day
At that point though I didnt consider it worthy of being pointed out so i let it ride
Cant say its AI at this point?

Idk if there was anything from like page 126-138 that has some sussy neon stuff lemme know but otherwise I'm feeling pretty in the dark

Well this is a misrepresentation of what I said and completely changes its meaning but cool

[Porscha]

God I'm just so tired
Reading posts but not iawy's

Too much wisdom BS pick what's most likely and throw votes on it

excuse me how dare you that's extremely rude

I mean this in the most loving way possible. If you dont wish to make playing harder for me than necessary, please start making at least some of your posts shorter than a small essay. Lol

[Hally]

if i was petty i might go through my iso and show all the places where i townsided before it was cool because i think people are just suffering from recency bias and don’t remember why they town read me

but i can’t really be bothered lol

skim my iso if you care about finding me ig, glgl

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I'm aware I'm in a tunnel but im also aware I'm correct so neener neener

you arent buddy lol

I can't hear you over the sound of my massive tunnel

Convince me that Nutella is scum.

No thanks

I'll do it. Show me a Nutella push that doesn't end on town.

[Seanzie]

the honest truth is that i just got frustrated with this game when half the people weren’t doing anything and then some other people were being flippantly anti-town so i just didn’t give enough of a shit to put in more effort last day

and then this day i have legit been busy

call it a drop off if you want

What do you think of Ilario?

has he even posted? beyond just hitting minimum every day

Yeah, so his ISO is short. Let me know your thoughts.

[Porscha]

I missed any eod stuff but the only thing that pinged me about neon to my memory is when she made the post at start of... yesterday? Saying "good, porscha is still obv towning" because like
Once I'm obv town I dont just 180, so what was the point of saying it? Felt sorta pockety towards me / trying to say something that sounds like they had thoughts early into the day
At that point though I didnt consider it worthy of being pointed out so i let it ride
Cant say its AI at this point?

Idk if there was anything from like page 126-138 that has some sussy neon stuff lemme know but otherwise I'm feeling pretty in the dark

Well this is a misrepresentation of what I said and completely changes its meaning but cool

Huh? How is it a misrepresentation?

I see Porscha is still obv towning. That's good.

Pyxxy feels like the textbook definition of IIoA to me. Like the analysis that does exist is off and few and far between.

That's exactly what you said. It pinged me a little. It wasnt worth mentioning at that moment and I just said theres a chance it means nothing.

Why are you so defensive about it? If you say I am misrepresenting, then clarify for me what you meant (though it is very plainly written.)

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I'm aware I'm in a tunnel but im also aware I'm correct so neener neener

you arent buddy lol

I can't hear you over the sound of my massive tunnel

Convince me that Nutella is scum.

No thanks

I'll do it. Show me a Nutella push that doesn't end on town.

Also a day that doesn't start with

Oops I was wrong again lols

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I missed any eod stuff but the only thing that pinged me about neon to my memory is when she made the post at start of... yesterday? Saying "good, porscha is still obv towning" because like
Once I'm obv town I dont just 180, so what was the point of saying it? Felt sorta pockety towards me / trying to say something that sounds like they had thoughts early into the day
At that point though I didnt consider it worthy of being pointed out so i let it ride
Cant say its AI at this point?

Idk if there was anything from like page 126-138 that has some sussy neon stuff lemme know but otherwise I'm feeling pretty in the dark

Well this is a misrepresentation of what I said and completely changes its meaning but cool

Huh? How is it a misrepresentation?

I see Porscha is still obv towning. That's good.

Pyxxy feels like the textbook definition of IIoA to me. Like the analysis that does exist is off and few and far between.

That's exactly what you said. It pinged me a little. It wasnt worth mentioning at that moment and I just said theres a chance it means nothing.

Why are you so defensive about it? If you say I am misrepresenting, then clarify for me what you meant (though it is very plainly written.)

When the fuck am I not defensive lol

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I am sorry but you know first hand this isn't my scum game. I'm better than this.

I've defs slanked as town before though.

[Seanzie]

I missed any eod stuff but the only thing that pinged me about neon to my memory is when she made the post at start of... yesterday? Saying "good, porscha is still obv towning" because like
Once I'm obv town I dont just 180, so what was the point of saying it? Felt sorta pockety towards me / trying to say something that sounds like they had thoughts early into the day
At that point though I didnt consider it worthy of being pointed out so i let it ride
Cant say its AI at this point?

Idk if there was anything from like page 126-138 that has some sussy neon stuff lemme know but otherwise I'm feeling pretty in the dark

Well this is a misrepresentation of what I said and completely changes its meaning but cool

Huh? How is it a misrepresentation?

I see Porscha is still obv towning. That's good.

Pyxxy feels like the textbook definition of IIoA to me. Like the analysis that does exist is off and few and far between.

That's exactly what you said. It pinged me a little. It wasnt worth mentioning at that moment and I just said theres a chance it means nothing.

Why are you so defensive about it? If you say I am misrepresenting, then clarify for me what you meant (though it is very plainly written.)

Oh, you're here.

Crap, you know how to read me.

[Hally]

i will say that i genuinely don’t get what’s wolfy about my EoD

i doubt i’d have popped in at all if i was wolfing because my wolf game is very agenda’d. if i didn’t have a specific idea of what i wanted to do i just wouldn’t have posted at all and would have left my vote on falcon (who, regardless of whether he’s a villager or wolf, would be a better lunch from the wolves’ pov because at least he can’t be the scout). what is even the benefit of unvoting? i don’t see how it can be argued that serves the wolf agenda.

also, this is self-meta but i don’t think i’ve ever had a wolf game where i didn’t vote on a main wagon every day (especially when a teammate is getting voted). but i don’t expect that to convince anyone.

anyway, idk y’all get a better read please

[nutella]

ok hally is probably maybe where we're wrong in the solve lol

im very easily swayed but yeah

[nutella]

I'm aware I'm in a tunnel but im also aware I'm correct so neener neener

you arent buddy lol

I can't hear you over the sound of my massive tunnel

Convince me that Nutella is scum.

No thanks

I'll do it. Show me a Nutella push that doesn't end on town.

Also a day that doesn't start with

Oops I was wrong again lols

and thats wolf indicative how?

im wrong as town it just happens

i cannot toppost like this as wolf, my thoughts have been completely unfiltered and transparent, im obvious town atp

[Seanzie]

i will say that i genuinely don’t get what’s wolfy about my EoD

i doubt i’d have popped in at all if i was wolfing because my wolf game is very agenda’d. if i didn’t have a specific idea of what i wanted to do i just wouldn’t have posted at all and would have left my vote on falcon (who, regardless of whether he’s a villager or wolf, would be a better lunch from the wolves’ pov because at least he can’t be the scout). what is even the benefit of unvoting? i don’t see how it can be argued that serves the wolf agenda.

also, this is self-meta but i don’t think i’ve ever had a wolf game where i didn’t vote on a main wagon every day (especially when a teammate is getting voted). but i don’t expect that to convince anyone.

anyway, idk y’all get a better read please

Why you no engage with me on Ilario then?

[Hally]

i will say that i genuinely don’t get what’s wolfy about my EoD

i doubt i’d have popped in at all if i was wolfing because my wolf game is very agenda’d. if i didn’t have a specific idea of what i wanted to do i just wouldn’t have posted at all and would have left my vote on falcon (who, regardless of whether he’s a villager or wolf, would be a better lunch from the wolves’ pov because at least he can’t be the scout). what is even the benefit of unvoting? i don’t see how it can be argued that serves the wolf agenda.

also, this is self-meta but i don’t think i’ve ever had a wolf game where i didn’t vote on a main wagon every day (especially when a teammate is getting voted). but i don’t expect that to convince anyone.

anyway, idk y’all get a better read please

Why you no engage with me on Ilario then?

cuz i didn’t see your post while i was writing that one

i’m skimming his iso now

[nutella]

hally pls look at the ilario stuff i think hes our best bet rn

[Seanzie]

@Porscha come hang out

[Porscha]

Any new significant developments?

I keep starting both the Hally Manny and Ilario ISOs to check against what I found previously but can't hold my attention in the same place to save my life today.

Also behold, my froggy mug:

I love your frog mug, but... is that... lucky charms... in chocolate milk in there?