pyxxy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:01 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 9:45 pm
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:44 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:38 pm
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:37 pm
I see the vote keeps changing every five minutes
That's good tbh, it means that mafia is probably involved here which puts us on the right track
its me, I am the mafia involved.
you fiend!
No but seriously, the fact that it's consolidating between Jack/Vivax/Falcon, but won't stay Jack/Vivax/Falcon for long, is a pretty decent indication that there's at least one mafia in that trio. Something something Rule of Threes, but the threadstate doesn't lie.
Not just because I already do think Jack is town, but I'm wondering if the wagons consolidating onto Jack and sticking atm actually spews him town? Basically everybody on Jack and Vivax sans pyxxy has been here in the last hour or so, so those votes are actively in flux. If there's mafia involved in this, there's mafia within those voters as they've been the ones directing the vote. Contrast that to Falcon's vote coming down solely to Hally who's AWOL, and Jack himself. Falcon's a point of contention but the wagons are consolidating away from him and towards Jack and Vivax, and initially it was Vivax and then switched to Jack and now Jack is sticking without movement. I don't think the wagons shifting away from Falcon and towards the other two is the greatest look for Falcon, but I'm trying to figure out if it's bad or not that the wagon was highly volatile while he was leading and now it's stagnated once Vivax is no longer the wagon
Actually,
[VOTE:
Vivax] aubergine
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:46 pm
santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:43 pm
Who would you vote between Jack/Vivax/Falcon Inawy?
I don't think I vote Jack here, if not for my townread than because I think the threadstate right now is spewing him town because there was a volatile thread, it consolidated onto Jack - and then the thread clammed up. Which is exactly what I talked about earlier wrt mafia caring about the wagons when they're on the line and then relaxing once it falls on not-mafia.
It's just a question of whether to vote for Vivax/Falcon here, but I'm voting Vivax because tie that gives info
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:48 pm
Vivax wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:46 pm
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:44 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:38 pm
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:37 pm
I see the vote keeps changing every five minutes
That's good tbh, it means that mafia is probably involved here which puts us on the right track
its me, I am the mafia involved.
you fiend!
No but seriously, the fact that it's consolidating between Jack/Vivax/Falcon, but won't stay Jack/Vivax/Falcon for long, is a pretty decent indication that there's at least one mafia in that trio. Something something Rule of Threes, but the threadstate doesn't lie.
Not just because I already do think Jack is town, but I'm wondering if the wagons consolidating onto Jack and sticking atm actually spews him town? Basically everybody on Jack and Vivax sans pyxxy has been here in the last hour or so, so those votes are actively in flux. If there's mafia involved in this, there's mafia within those voters as they've been the ones directing the vote. Contrast that to Falcon's vote coming down solely to Hally who's AWOL, and Jack himself. Falcon's a point of contention but the wagons are consolidating away from him and towards Jack and Vivax, and initially it was Vivax and then switched to Jack and now Jack is sticking without movement. I don't think the wagons shifting away from Falcon and towards the other two is the greatest look for Falcon, but I'm trying to figure out if it's bad or not that the wagon was highly volatile while he was leading and now it's stagnated once Vivax is no longer the wagon
Actually,
[VOTE:
Vivax] aubergine
You need to write this in a more concise manner clone brotha
Wolf hates getting votes. Wolf pack hates wolf getting votes. So wolves howl and try to make other votes happen. Once votes move away from wolf, wolves stop howling and there is silence.
The silence that fell into the thread once Jack became the top wagon is strongly indicative of Jack not being town and Mafia being okay with the chop. The fact that there was 'howling' in the thread beforehand also means that there is at least one wolf amongst the people who were posting and voting in the last hour
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:49 pm
Day 5 Vote Count
SoD:
#5825 EoD:
#0
Not Voting (4): MacDougall (2), sprityo (5), SilverKeith (1), Porscha (23)
vivax (4):
santygrass (95),
DrWilgy (50),
Seanzie (113),
Inawordyes (83)
jackofhearts2005 (4):
pyxxy (23),
nutella (129),
DeeZees (12),
Vivax (31)
falcon45ca (2):
Hally (18),
Jackofhearts2005 (53)
nutella (2):
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (5),
ilario (14)
manny (1):
Manny (37)
pyxxy (1):
Neon (61)
ilario (1):
Michelle (37)
drwilgy (1):
Lumi (30)
sprityo (1):
Ricochet (5)
santygrass (1):
falcon45ca (55)
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:52 pm
hmmm
[VOTE:
falcon45ca] aubergine
Lumi wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:54 pm
Day 5 Vote Count
SoD:
#5825 EoD:
#0
Not Voting (4): MacDougall (3), sprityo (5), SilverKeith (1), Porscha (23)
jackofhearts2005 (4):
pyxxy (23),
nutella (131),
DeeZees (12),
Vivax (31)
falcon45ca (3):
Hally (18),
Jackofhearts2005 (53),
Inawordyes (88)
vivax (3):
santygrass (96),
DrWilgy (50),
Seanzie (116)
nutella (2):
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (5),
ilario (14)
manny (1):
Manny (37)
pyxxy (1):
Neon (61)
ilario (1):
Michelle (37)
drwilgy (1):
Lumi (33)
sprityo (1):
Ricochet (5)
santygrass (1):
falcon45ca (55)
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:56 pm
ahhhhhhhhhh, and there's the outcome I hoped for
Jack:
becomes top wagon
the thread:
doesn't care
Iawy:
ties Vivax with Jack for top wagon
the thread:
doesn't care
Iawy:
switched vote to Falcon, tying Vivax and Falcon for CW
the thread:
immediate pushback and multiple players come out of the woodwork including to vote Vivax
it's like clockwork haha
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:57 pm
The immediate resistance to falcon being the CW while there's apathy for the last 10 minutes while Jack and Vivax are tied for top wagon probably spews the latter two town here I think
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:59 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:58 pm
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:56 pm
ahhhhhhhhhh, and there's the outcome I hoped for
Jack:
becomes top wagon
the thread:
doesn't care
Iawy:
ties Vivax with Jack for top wagon
the thread:
doesn't care
Iawy:
switched vote to Falcon, tying Vivax and Falcon for CW
the thread:
immediate pushback and multiple players come out of the woodwork including to vote Vivax
it's like clockwork haha
you suggesting falcon is being saved?
I think that the apathy ITT while Jack was top wagon, the apathy in the thread over Vivax being tied for top wagon, and the almost-instantaneous pushback once I tied Falcon is quite telling
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
okay voting for DeeZees joke over this looks _bad_ bad for IAWY
[VOTE:
Inawordyes] aubergine
since I tend to undershare
I'm building off of Nutella's work + Seanzie's work + also assuming here that scum!iawy is making a play to save vivax
as nutella said
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 9:47 pm
it seems like iawy's vivax vote that tied vivax with jack was a risk but a calculated one that worked out for his agenda if he's a wolf and wanted to make the argument he made
I've been thinking for like 10 minutes on one more question
if this is scum!iawy, can the desire to tie -> move to and push falcon tell us anything about who scum knows is a player?
I can't figure this last part out
pyxxy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 9:34 pm
Vivax (5):
Santygrass, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Michelle, Lumi
jackofhearts2005 (4): pyxxy, nutella, DeeZees,
Vivax
looking at the near EOD vote counts from the IAWY posts that Nutella quoted:
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:49 pm
Day 5 Vote Count
SoD:
#5825 EoD:
#0
Not Voting (4): MacDougall (2), sprityo (5), SilverKeith (1), Porscha (23)
vivax (4):
santygrass (95),
DrWilgy (50),
Seanzie (113),
Inawordyes (83)
jackofhearts2005 (4):
pyxxy (23),
nutella (129),
DeeZees (12),
Vivax (31)
falcon45ca (2):
Hally (18),
Jackofhearts2005 (53)
nutella (2):
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (5),
ilario (14)
manny (1):
Manny (37)
pyxxy (1):
Neon (61)
ilario (1):
Michelle (37)
drwilgy (1):
Lumi (30)
sprityo (1):
Ricochet (5)
santygrass (1):
falcon45ca (55)
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:52 pm
hmmm
[VOTE:
falcon45ca] aubergine
Lumi wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:54 pm
Day 5 Vote Count
SoD:
#5825 EoD:
#0
Not Voting (4): MacDougall (3), sprityo (5), SilverKeith (1), Porscha (23)
jackofhearts2005 (4):
pyxxy (23),
nutella (131),
DeeZees (12),
Vivax (31)
falcon45ca (3):
Hally (18),
Jackofhearts2005 (53),
Inawordyes (88)
vivax (3):
santygrass (96),
DrWilgy (50),
Seanzie (116)
nutella (2):
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (5),
ilario (14)
manny (1):
Manny (37)
pyxxy (1):
Neon (61)
ilario (1):
Michelle (37)
drwilgy (1):
Lumi (33)
sprityo (1):
Ricochet (5)
santygrass (1):
falcon45ca (55)
If IAWY is scum, then it would lead that he felt confident that this vivax wagon would lose to the nascent falcon wagon, right?
jackofhearts2005 (4): pyxxy (23), nutella (131), DeeZees (12), Vivax (31)
falcon45ca (3): Hally (18), Jackofhearts2005 (53), Inawordyes (88)
vivax (3): santygrass (95), DrWilgy (50), Seanzie (113)
things did indeed change in the last 6 minutes after this play, with Hally dropping from falcon and Michelle+Lumi joining on Vivax
Vivax (5): Santygrass, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Michelle, Lumi
jackofhearts2005 (4): pyxxy, nutella, DeeZees, Vivax
nutella (2): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, ilario
falcon45ca (2): Jackofhearts2005, Inawordyes
....yeah there's something here but I just can't put my finger on it
maybe scum felt somewhat confident that there were more players still on the jack wagon at EOD?
and ofc could be wrong about IAWY being scum