Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME

[Lumi]

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly

[Lumi]

Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0

Not Voting (6): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
falcon45ca (1): Lumi (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)

[Lumi]

@Hally
@Michelle

[nutella]

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

[Seanzie]

Y'all should stop voting Falcon.

[nutella]

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

idk im feeling disillusioned

[nutella]

Y'all should stop voting Falcon.

great timing

[nutella]

who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

[Seanzie]

who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

Idk, Hally maybe?

[DrWilgy]

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.

[nutella]

who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

Idk, Hally maybe?

lol

[nutella]

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.

im worried hes actually a comfortable powerwolf (which is sorta his meta anyway) and was just pushing various miss wagons and pocketing me

[nutella]

and today hes very heavily leaning into the neon push which im not really all that confident on especially from her recent posting and idk im concerned im still going in all the wrong directions

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Why did you start with me specifically?

[Lumi]

Also some quick game theory on how town should be deciding who to kill.

Imagine there's one player that is NPC 90% of the time and wolf 10% of the time (Schiavetto)
and another player that's NPC 40% of the time, wolf 30% of the time and town 30% of the time (falcon)

Who should town try to kill?

Well - town should be trying to maximize their win probability - and probably the closest accurate heuristic to win probability is what percentage of actual players are town.

The real players are pretty well known at this point, especially since I actually outed as a player now - so let's say wolves kill a player 90% of the time tonight.

That means that the ratio on Day 6 for chopping a town today will be (9.1/13.1) = 69.47% of players are town
For chopping an NPC it would be (10.1/14.1) = 71.63%
For chopping a wolf it would be (10.1/13.1) = 77.10%

So to figure out what chop gives the highest EV tomorrow, just take the weighted average for each players equity.

A schia chop weighted average is (90% * 71.63%) + (10% * 77.10%) = 72.18% EV
A falcon chop weighted average is (30% * 69.47% + 40% * 71.63% + 30% * 77.10%) = 72.62% EV

So even though the probability that schia is a wolf in worlds where schia is a player is waaay higher than the probability that falcon is a wolf in worlds where falcon is a player, chopping falcon here is still a better EV chop.


Also - I think falcon is just genuinely higher chance to flip wolf than Neon @DeeZees

Could be wrong, Neon hasn't really been townie, but also Neon has shown an ability to be townie even as wolf e.g the Invitational game, so I don't actually think Neon is super polarized?

[Lumi]

Also mindmeld with nutella

I've been kind of wary of Santy for a while - the lily push yesterday was kind of eye brow raising IMO since that was just a bad push, lily should never have been chopped there and I should have dropped the NPC LARP sooner in order to stop it, but I was doubting myself and worried I would be wrong and didn't want to be the fool that shielded a wolf.

The pushes on the Neon / Lily / Porscha trio all in all though feel like they lack actual reason and only exist now because of momentum there.
To be clear, I think both Neon and Porscha have slightly to decently >rand wolf equity because there have just been people that I get town vibes from more - but it's really not enough to make me want to wagon them.

[Lumi]

@ilario

Start playing. I'm checking you tonight, and if you come up as a player and you didn't actually engage with the game today, I'm probably going to tunnel you tomorrow

[Seanzie]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

I am very town

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Lumi Porscha town forever

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly

I'm very confident I've already said I'm quite likely to break the rules.



Mac knows this, and as an Aussie is culturally contracted to support scofflaws

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Why did you start with me specifically?

I'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go Hmmmmmm

[Lumi]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

[falcon45ca]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

falcon is town.



so is falcon45ca

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I think I need more posts

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

But I should be good now

[Seanzie]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

[Lumi]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

Who do you think is a better chop?
Falcon also was a day 1 chop in duck tales, how is this different from that?

[Seanzie]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

Who do you think is a better chop?
Falcon also was a day 1 chop in duck tales, how is this different from that?

I am open to suggestions.

Because I knew Falcon was wolf by then in that game.

[Michelle]

[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine

Back to square 1

[Michelle]

Schiavetto came at Eod like they forgot about the game and they had an obligation to reach the minimum of posts.
This is wolfy behaviour and i think has priority toDay

[Manny]

wtf Lumi you were supposed to be my NPC mason, treason!.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Told you Lumi was town

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

[falcon45ca]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

This is accurate & in no way offensive in the least.

[Inawordyes]

Okay, hello. It is me, the “is he an NPC? Is he scummy? We know literally nothing about him but also care way entirely too little to even try and put thought into figuring it out or paying attention to him” guy

Should probably own up at this stage to the fact that I’m actually a player. A really sucky one up to now, but one nonetheless. However, I’ve recently come into some money (aka time, as time is money y’know), so I’m gonna try my best to actually be consistent and here now. Better late than never, at least

[Inawordyes]

[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine

I thought Schia’s EoD posts were really funny but I don’t see how that’s not outing for them

[DeeZees]

Reading Zeus' Iso I enjoy the gimmick very much

@DeeZees you voted alot Santygrass, I found a post explaining his reads looked manufactured, do you remember any post?
After 2 days you said 'i was wrong on Santy' if i understand correctly it was for wagonomics
What do you think now?
Last post I've read #4708 - I think is worthy to check again Golden's wagon

Unrelated: What's your read for me? I'm just curious.

@Michelle I thought it was just in general it looked fake to me based on my high level reads

but yes- flipped on santy. he's basically solving and mixing it up. dece

I think you seem fine too !

[Inawordyes]

RE: the discussion earlier about the mafia scout, this may just be a dumb thought in my ignorance (as I’m basically starting super late), but pretty much any time I’ve ever been part of a scumteam that had a cop, they pretty much always NK a top player and check a top player. There’s a bunch of people ITT who I know outside these walls to be really good players that I’m honestly surprised are still alive. So my general assumption is that they’re scouting top players. The fact that so many who I would expect to have died by now aren’t dead in favor of more questionable NK choices has a good chance of indicating that a good chunk of the people who are currently leading the town are NPCs, and the mafia team knows it and are steering clear (or are mafia themselves, but I’m not gonna delve down that tinfoil when I have literally no info on anything this game to even think I’m qualified to suggest it as an option)

Which is really sad and sucky if true because if the actual town players aren’t stepping up as much (hello, I’m the problem, it’s me), then we are going to be in a rough situation after the remaining NPCs get purged EoD7 if most of the top thread leaders go with them

[Inawordyes]

pyxxy's D5 color vote count post V5

V2 - updated for missing the d3 min post deaths (sorry about that)
V3 - updated for missing the first Prince J, thank you Michelle
V4 - accidentally hit enter when trying to update it, no changes
V5 - missed coloring arogame as NPC on D1 vote count, color NPC hardclaims as...pink?
--------------------
NPCs are orange, town is green, NPC hardclaims are pink, no scum yet obv

spoilered for size

Spoiler: show

Day 1 vote count:

golden (8): EnderWiggin, Dyslexicon, Creature, RondoDimBuckle, DeeZees, lucy, Vivax, DrWilgy, G-Man
chelsea (7): Golden, Scotty, Guillotine, ilario, Neon, tutuu, Prince J
arogame (2): nutella, Sabiplz
c4e5g3d5 (2): Marmot, c4e5g3d5
sloonei (2): Ricochet, pyxxy
lilypetal (1): falcon45ca
guillotina (1): katze
jaggedjimmyjay (1): Jackofhearts2005
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto
scotty (1): Hally
guillotine (1): santygrass
manny (1): Manny
risiinq~ (1): Ranmilia
iaafr (1): Chelsea
michelle (1): TonyStarkPrime

unvote (3): iaafr, WindwardAway, arogame123

Not Voting (11): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Lilypetal, SilverKeith, Inawordyes, Michelle, JaggedJimmyJay, risiinq-, sabie12, Fext, Porscha

D1 - golden died

---
N1 - TonyStarkPrime died
---

D2 vote count

santygrass (6): Guillotine, Vivax, pyxxy, EnderWiggin, DeeZees, Creature
hollowkatt (6): santygrass, Jackofhearts2005, Ranmilia, Dyslexicon, tutuu, DrWilgy
marmot (2): Marmot, sprityo
deezees (1): iaafr
enderwiggin (2): nutella, Neon
scotty (1): Lilypetal
guillotine (1): Seanzie
manny (1): Manny
michelle (3): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, hollowkatt, Chelsea
drwilgy (2): SilverKeith
sloonei (1): Ricochet
nutella (1): Michelle

unvote (2): Hally, RondoDimBuckle

Not Voting (13): MacDougall, katze, c4e5g3d5, sloonei, JaggedJimmyJay, Lumi, G-Man, risiinq-, Porscha, Inawordyes, WindwardAway, Schiavetto, falcon45ca

D2 - Hollowkatt died
- Windward Away, Prince J, Arogame123, Fext and lucy all removed as NPC for not meeting post minimum

---
N2 - Tutuu died, Risiinq died
---

D3 - Marmot chooses sweet release

D3 vote count

drwilgy (6): nutella, EnderWiggin, Vivax, Jackofhearts2005, ilario, SilverKeith
ranmilia (4): iaafr, Porscha, Neon, Lilypetal
nutella (2): katze, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
vivax (3): santygrass, Ranmilia, DeeZees
neon (1): Seanzie
scotty (1): sloonei
dyslexicon (1): RondoDimBuckle
lilypetal (1): Hally
katze (1): G-Man
manny (1): Manny
rondodimbuckle (1): Michelle
santygrass (1): pyxxy
sloonei (1): Ricochet

Not Voting (10): MacDougall, Lumi, c4e5g3d5, Inawordyes, Guillotine, Marmot, falcon45ca, JaggedJimmyJay, sprityo, Schiavetto

DrWigly aka wigly aka wiggles and ranmilia aka ran tied, ran died

missed this in my prior posts, lmao: "c4, guillo, chelsea and creature failed to reach post minimums"

The Purge:
JaggedJimmyJay, RondoDimBuckle, iaafr, Sloonei, Scotty, katze, G-Man

---
N3 - Dyslexicon died
---

D4 vote count

lilypetal (5): santygrass, nutella, Michelle, DeeZees, Hally
neon (4): Seanzie, falcon45ca, Lilypetal, EnderWiggin
enderwiggin (3): Neon, ilario, Vivax
falcon (2): Jackofhearts2005, DrWilgy
manny (1): Manny
nutella (1): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
unvote (1): Inawordyes
schiavetto (1): pyxxy
sprityo (1): Ricochet
ricochet (1): sprityo

Not Voting: Lumi, SilverKeith, Porscha, iaafr, Schiavetto

D4 - lilypetal died

---
N4 - enderwiggin died
---

-----------------------

Updated list of alive people after D4 + N4:

Spoiler: show

DeeZees
DrWilgy
falcon45ca
Hally
iaafr
ilario
Inawordyes
Jackofhearts2005
Lumi
Manny
Michelle
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Neon
nutella
Porscha
pyxxy
Ricochet
santygrass
Schiavetto
Seanzie
SilverKeith
sprityo
Vivax

23 total....11 town, 4 mafia, 8 NPCs, pretty sure

How likely is it for everybody on Lily’s wagon to be a player?

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Why did you start with me specifically?

I'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go Hmmmmmm

Aye, you'll hmmm, but you won't question it would you?

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Why did you start with me specifically?

I'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go Hmmmmmm

Aye, you'll hmmm, but you won't question it would you?

False. I can and I have

[Seanzie]

One thing I'm kind of surprised that hasn't been mentioned yet in terms of mafia scout play is that idk if it is actually a good idea to kill their early "player" hits. This is especially true if the scout is someone they don't expect to live long.

In late game, if they are in elo with some NPCs still alive, having a confirmed town alive allows them to be outed post-flip, as one example of the benefit.

[Seanzie]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

This is accurate & in no way offensive in the least.

I said pretty much the same thing two games ago when we were both town. Are you afraid I am a wolf WKing you here, recycling a take I made as a townie?

[falcon45ca]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

This is accurate & in no way offensive in the least.

I said pretty much the same thing two games ago when we were both town. Are you afraid I am a wolf WKing you here, recycling a take I made as a townie?

Not really, cuz' this isn't new info to anybody who's somewhat familiar with my playstyle. It's pretty NAI from my viewpoint

[falcon45ca]

So what here is the argument for me?

I've seen a few votes.

Wilgy here showing an unusual amount of concern for the sus on his slot.



It is not uncommon for Wilgy to get heat, as he is a tricky read, and usually he cares very little.

[Inawordyes]

One thing I'm kind of surprised that hasn't been mentioned yet in terms of mafia scout play is that idk if it is actually a good idea to kill their early "player" hits. This is especially true if the scout is someone they don't expect to live long.

In late game, if they are in elo with some NPCs still alive, having a confirmed town alive allows them to be outed post-flip, as one example of the benefit.

Does that track in a scenario where there’s 1.5x-2x the number of NPCs in the game than players? I don’t have the exact D1 numbers in front of me, but to take a shot that has less >50% odds guarantees that you statistically shoot blanks more often than not. I’d argue it’s the opposite, you immediately cut down players you scout early on, but as the numbers dwindle (and especially now post-purge), you start taking out threats irregardless of scout results because the chances of hitting a player over an NPC is greater the more NPCs flake and fade

Speaking of, on that note I think the Ender NK may be a good example of that. Even with my little game-knowledge yesterday it’s not the first NK I would’ve expected to happen. So the fact that it did has some implications for the gamestate we live in I think

[Seanzie]

One thing I'm kind of surprised that hasn't been mentioned yet in terms of mafia scout play is that idk if it is actually a good idea to kill their early "player" hits. This is especially true if the scout is someone they don't expect to live long.

In late game, if they are in elo with some NPCs still alive, having a confirmed town alive allows them to be outed post-flip, as one example of the benefit.

Does that track in a scenario where there’s 1.5x-2x the number of NPCs in the game than players? I don’t have the exact D1 numbers in front of me, but to take a shot that has less >50% odds guarantees that you statistically shoot blanks more often than not. I’d argue it’s the opposite, you immediately cut down players you scout early on, but as the numbers dwindle (and especially now post-purge), you start taking out threats irregardless of scout results because the chances of hitting a player over an NPC is greater the more NPCs flake and fade

Speaking of, on that note I think the Ender NK may be a good example of that. Even with my little game-knowledge yesterday it’s not the first NK I would’ve expected to happen. So the fact that it did has some implications for the gamestate we live in I think

I personally would be okay leaving one or two confirmed town alive unless they were specifically threats, and instead shooting ???. Info is stronk.

[Seanzie]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

This is accurate & in no way offensive in the least.

I said pretty much the same thing two games ago when we were both town. Are you afraid I am a wolf WKing you here, recycling a take I made as a townie?

Not really, cuz' this isn't new info to anybody who's somewhat familiar with my playstyle. It's pretty NAI from my viewpoint

You're people pleasin', Falcon.

[Inawordyes]

One thing I'm kind of surprised that hasn't been mentioned yet in terms of mafia scout play is that idk if it is actually a good idea to kill their early "player" hits. This is especially true if the scout is someone they don't expect to live long.

In late game, if they are in elo with some NPCs still alive, having a confirmed town alive allows them to be outed post-flip, as one example of the benefit.

Does that track in a scenario where there’s 1.5x-2x the number of NPCs in the game than players? I don’t have the exact D1 numbers in front of me, but to take a shot that has less >50% odds guarantees that you statistically shoot blanks more often than not. I’d argue it’s the opposite, you immediately cut down players you scout early on, but as the numbers dwindle (and especially now post-purge), you start taking out threats irregardless of scout results because the chances of hitting a player over an NPC is greater the more NPCs flake and fade

Speaking of, on that note I think the Ender NK may be a good example of that. Even with my little game-knowledge yesterday it’s not the first NK I would’ve expected to happen. So the fact that it did has some implications for the gamestate we live in I think

I personally would be okay leaving one or two confirmed town alive unless they were specifically threats, and instead shooting ???. Info is stronk.

Which I would agree with now, in this general game timeframe. Not so much in the early game where the margin for error is extremely high, but it’s all moot anyways as we don’t know and won’t know until post-game

Even in that world though, I would imagine you’re gonna scout people who are mid- to high-profile in the thread while you NK people in the same range (which for the most part has happened from my limited understanding RE: the NKs so far), so if you’re a mafia team that’s scouting real players and then stockpiling them to intentionally shoot in the dark, then you don’t see who you’re scouting as threatening. Which probably has several interesting implications of its own. but I don’t have the mental capacity rn to try and figure them out