Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 113
- Posts: 10223
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:39 pm
- Gender: M
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show
- DrWilgy
- Capo Regime (Street Boss)
- Posts in topic: 213
- Posts: 14883
- Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:54 am
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
- DrWilgy
- Capo Regime (Street Boss)
- Posts in topic: 213
- Posts: 14883
- Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:54 am
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
@pyxxy, don't get me wrong. I do appreciate the analysis. What conclusion do you draw from this though?
You've posted plenty, you've put a lot of energy into the game comparatively, but still I see nothing read based from you except the OMGUS towards me.
Nothing the past few pages have really shifted my mindset. Schia is a wolf. Pyxxy and Falcon are both fine yeets as well.
You've posted plenty, you've put a lot of energy into the game comparatively, but still I see nothing read based from you except the OMGUS towards me.
Nothing the past few pages have really shifted my mindset. Schia is a wolf. Pyxxy and Falcon are both fine yeets as well.
- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 113
- Posts: 10223
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:39 pm
- Gender: M
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I call it the Pinata Tactica PrincipiaDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pmYou aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
Poke stuff til things fall out
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show
- Lumi
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 259
- Posts: 626
- Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:08 pm
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/they/them
- Aka: Luminous
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0
Not Voting (7): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), Lumi (13), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0
Not Voting (7): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), Lumi (13), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
- Lumi
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 259
- Posts: 626
- Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:08 pm
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/they/them
- Aka: Luminous
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
falcon45ca] aubergine
Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly
Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly
- Lumi
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 259
- Posts: 626
- Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:08 pm
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/they/them
- Aka: Luminous
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0
Not Voting (6): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
falcon45ca (1): Lumi (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0
Not Voting (6): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
falcon45ca (1): Lumi (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
- nutella
- Connoisseur of Spice
- Posts in topic: 587
- Posts: 24681
- Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:23 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/hers
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town
avatar art credit to chardonnay! (colors added by me tho)
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
- Seanzie
- Polarized
- Posts in topic: 345
- Posts: 9289
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:42 am
- Gender: male
- Preferred Pronouns: he/him or they/them
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Y'all should stop voting Falcon.
Spoiler: show
- nutella
- Connoisseur of Spice
- Posts in topic: 587
- Posts: 24681
- Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:23 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/hers
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
falcon45ca] aubergine
idk im feeling disillusioned
idk im feeling disillusioned
avatar art credit to chardonnay! (colors added by me tho)
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
- nutella
- Connoisseur of Spice
- Posts in topic: 587
- Posts: 24681
- Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:23 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/hers
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
avatar art credit to chardonnay! (colors added by me tho)
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
- nutella
- Connoisseur of Spice
- Posts in topic: 587
- Posts: 24681
- Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:23 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/hers
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet
avatar art credit to chardonnay! (colors added by me tho)
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
- Seanzie
- Polarized
- Posts in topic: 345
- Posts: 9289
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:42 am
- Gender: male
- Preferred Pronouns: he/him or they/them
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Idk, Hally maybe?
Spoiler: show
- DrWilgy
- Capo Regime (Street Boss)
- Posts in topic: 213
- Posts: 14883
- Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:54 am
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.
- nutella
- Connoisseur of Spice
- Posts in topic: 587
- Posts: 24681
- Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:23 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/hers
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
lol
avatar art credit to chardonnay! (colors added by me tho)
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
- nutella
- Connoisseur of Spice
- Posts in topic: 587
- Posts: 24681
- Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:23 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/hers
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
im worried hes actually a comfortable powerwolf (which is sorta his meta anyway) and was just pushing various miss wagons and pocketing me
avatar art credit to chardonnay! (colors added by me tho)
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
- nutella
- Connoisseur of Spice
- Posts in topic: 587
- Posts: 24681
- Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:23 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/hers
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
and today hes very heavily leaning into the neon push which im not really all that confident on especially from her recent posting and idk im concerned im still going in all the wrong directions
avatar art credit to chardonnay! (colors added by me tho)
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23 ~ http://ofmonstersandmintcookies.tumblr.com ~ https://rateyourmusic.com/~nutella23
- DrWilgy
- Capo Regime (Street Boss)
- Posts in topic: 213
- Posts: 14883
- Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:54 am
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Why did you start with me specifically?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pmI call it the Pinata Tactica PrincipiaDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pmYou aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
Poke stuff til things fall out
- Lumi
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 259
- Posts: 626
- Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:08 pm
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/they/them
- Aka: Luminous
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Also some quick game theory on how town should be deciding who to kill.
Imagine there's one player that is NPC 90% of the time and wolf 10% of the time (Schiavetto)
and another player that's NPC 40% of the time, wolf 30% of the time and town 30% of the time (falcon)
Who should town try to kill?
Well - town should be trying to maximize their win probability - and probably the closest accurate heuristic to win probability is what percentage of actual players are town.
The real players are pretty well known at this point, especially since I actually outed as a player now - so let's say wolves kill a player 90% of the time tonight.
That means that the ratio on Day 6 for chopping a town today will be (9.1/13.1) = 69.47% of players are town
For chopping an NPC it would be (10.1/14.1) = 71.63%
For chopping a wolf it would be (10.1/13.1) = 77.10%
So to figure out what chop gives the highest EV tomorrow, just take the weighted average for each players equity.
A schia chop weighted average is (90% * 71.63%) + (10% * 77.10%) = 72.18% EV
A falcon chop weighted average is (30% * 69.47% + 40% * 71.63% + 30% * 77.10%) = 72.62% EV
So even though the probability that schia is a wolf in worlds where schia is a player is waaay higher than the probability that falcon is a wolf in worlds where falcon is a player, chopping falcon here is still a better EV chop.
Also - I think falcon is just genuinely higher chance to flip wolf than Neon @DeeZees
Could be wrong, Neon hasn't really been townie, but also Neon has shown an ability to be townie even as wolf e.g the Invitational game, so I don't actually think Neon is super polarized?
Imagine there's one player that is NPC 90% of the time and wolf 10% of the time (Schiavetto)
and another player that's NPC 40% of the time, wolf 30% of the time and town 30% of the time (falcon)
Who should town try to kill?
Well - town should be trying to maximize their win probability - and probably the closest accurate heuristic to win probability is what percentage of actual players are town.
The real players are pretty well known at this point, especially since I actually outed as a player now - so let's say wolves kill a player 90% of the time tonight.
That means that the ratio on Day 6 for chopping a town today will be (9.1/13.1) = 69.47% of players are town
For chopping an NPC it would be (10.1/14.1) = 71.63%
For chopping a wolf it would be (10.1/13.1) = 77.10%
So to figure out what chop gives the highest EV tomorrow, just take the weighted average for each players equity.
A schia chop weighted average is (90% * 71.63%) + (10% * 77.10%) = 72.18% EV
A falcon chop weighted average is (30% * 69.47% + 40% * 71.63% + 30% * 77.10%) = 72.62% EV
So even though the probability that schia is a wolf in worlds where schia is a player is waaay higher than the probability that falcon is a wolf in worlds where falcon is a player, chopping falcon here is still a better EV chop.
Also - I think falcon is just genuinely higher chance to flip wolf than Neon @DeeZees
Could be wrong, Neon hasn't really been townie, but also Neon has shown an ability to be townie even as wolf e.g the Invitational game, so I don't actually think Neon is super polarized?
- Lumi
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 259
- Posts: 626
- Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:08 pm
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/they/them
- Aka: Luminous
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Also mindmeld with nutella
I've been kind of wary of Santy for a while - the lily push yesterday was kind of eye brow raising IMO since that was just a bad push, lily should never have been chopped there and I should have dropped the NPC LARP sooner in order to stop it, but I was doubting myself and worried I would be wrong and didn't want to be the fool that shielded a wolf.
The pushes on the Neon / Lily / Porscha trio all in all though feel like they lack actual reason and only exist now because of momentum there.
To be clear, I think both Neon and Porscha have slightly to decently >rand wolf equity because there have just been people that I get town vibes from more - but it's really not enough to make me want to wagon them.
I've been kind of wary of Santy for a while - the lily push yesterday was kind of eye brow raising IMO since that was just a bad push, lily should never have been chopped there and I should have dropped the NPC LARP sooner in order to stop it, but I was doubting myself and worried I would be wrong and didn't want to be the fool that shielded a wolf.
The pushes on the Neon / Lily / Porscha trio all in all though feel like they lack actual reason and only exist now because of momentum there.
To be clear, I think both Neon and Porscha have slightly to decently >rand wolf equity because there have just been people that I get town vibes from more - but it's really not enough to make me want to wagon them.
- Lumi
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 259
- Posts: 626
- Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:08 pm
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/they/them
- Aka: Luminous
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
@ilario
Start playing. I'm checking you tonight, and if you come up as a player and you didn't actually engage with the game today, I'm probably going to tunnel you tomorrow
Start playing. I'm checking you tonight, and if you come up as a player and you didn't actually engage with the game today, I'm probably going to tunnel you tomorrow
- Seanzie
- Polarized
- Posts in topic: 345
- Posts: 9289
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:42 am
- Gender: male
- Preferred Pronouns: he/him or they/them
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
No to Falcon. No.
Not yet at least.
Not yet at least.
Spoiler: show
- ☆Princess Abigail☆
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 378
- Posts: 11673
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:05 pm
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: She/Her
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I am very town
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Spoiler: show
- ☆Princess Abigail☆
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 378
- Posts: 11673
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:05 pm
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: She/Her
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Lumi Porscha town forever
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Spoiler: show
- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 113
- Posts: 10223
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:39 pm
- Gender: M
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I'm very confident I've already said I'm quite likely to break the rules.
Mac knows this, and as an Aussie is culturally contracted to support scofflaws
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show
- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 113
- Posts: 10223
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:39 pm
- Gender: M
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go HmmmmmmDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:00 pmWhy did you start with me specifically?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pmI call it the Pinata Tactica PrincipiaDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pmYou aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
Poke stuff til things fall out
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show
- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 113
- Posts: 10223
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:39 pm
- Gender: M
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
falcon is town.
so is falcon45ca
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show
- NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
- i moderated for mafiathesyndicate.com and all i got was this stupid title
- Posts in topic: 76
- Posts: 17344
- Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:40 am
- Location: Florida
- Preferred Pronouns: Usually he/him but idc
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I think I need more posts
Spoiler: show
- NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
- i moderated for mafiathesyndicate.com and all i got was this stupid title
- Posts in topic: 76
- Posts: 17344
- Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:40 am
- Location: Florida
- Preferred Pronouns: Usually he/him but idc
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
But I should be good now
Spoiler: show
- Seanzie
- Polarized
- Posts in topic: 345
- Posts: 9289
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:42 am
- Gender: male
- Preferred Pronouns: he/him or they/them
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.
Spoiler: show
- Lumi
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 259
- Posts: 626
- Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:08 pm
- Preferred Pronouns: she/her/they/them
- Aka: Luminous
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Who do you think is a better chop?Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:04 pmFalcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.
Falcon also was a day 1 chop in duck tales, how is this different from that?
- Seanzie
- Polarized
- Posts in topic: 345
- Posts: 9289
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:42 am
- Gender: male
- Preferred Pronouns: he/him or they/them
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I am open to suggestions.Lumi wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:07 pmWho do you think is a better chop?Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:04 pmFalcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.
Falcon also was a day 1 chop in duck tales, how is this different from that?
Because I knew Falcon was wolf by then in that game.
Spoiler: show
- Michelle
- Made Man
- Posts in topic: 417
- Posts: 7961
- Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:18 am
- Location: in my shell
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: She/her/hers/herself
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
Schiavetto] aubergine
Back to square 1
Back to square 1
- Michelle
- Made Man
- Posts in topic: 417
- Posts: 7961
- Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:18 am
- Location: in my shell
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: She/her/hers/herself
- Contact:
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Schiavetto came at Eod like they forgot about the game and they had an obligation to reach the minimum of posts.
This is wolfy behaviour and i think has priority toDay
This is wolfy behaviour and i think has priority toDay
- Manny
- Drug Dealer
- Posts in topic: 432
- Posts: 864
- Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:44 am
- Gender: male
- Preferred Pronouns: he
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
wtf Lumi you were supposed to be my NPC mason, treason!.
- ☆Princess Abigail☆
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 378
- Posts: 11673
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:05 pm
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: She/Her
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Told you Lumi was town
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Spoiler: show
- ☆Princess Abigail☆
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 378
- Posts: 11673
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:05 pm
- Gender: Female
- Preferred Pronouns: She/Her
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Resident Juice Sipping Icon
Spoiler: show
- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 113
- Posts: 10223
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:39 pm
- Gender: M
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
This is accurate & in no way offensive in the least.Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:04 pmFalcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show
- Inawordyes
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 299
- Posts: 774
- Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:02 pm
- Aka: Iawy
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Okay, hello. It is me, the “is he an NPC? Is he scummy? We know literally nothing about him but also care way entirely too little to even try and put thought into figuring it out or paying attention to him” guy
Should probably own up at this stage to the fact that I’m actually a player. A really sucky one up to now, but one nonetheless. However, I’ve recently come into some money (aka time, as time is money y’know), so I’m gonna try my best to actually be consistent and here now. Better late than never, at least
Should probably own up at this stage to the fact that I’m actually a player. A really sucky one up to now, but one nonetheless. However, I’ve recently come into some money (aka time, as time is money y’know), so I’m gonna try my best to actually be consistent and here now. Better late than never, at least
- Inawordyes
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 299
- Posts: 774
- Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:02 pm
- Aka: Iawy
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
Schiavetto] aubergine
I thought Schia’s EoD posts were really funny but I don’t see how that’s not outing for them
I thought Schia’s EoD posts were really funny but I don’t see how that’s not outing for them
- DeeZees
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 228
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:34 am
- Gender: he
- Preferred Pronouns: he/him
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
@Michelle I thought it was just in general it looked fake to me based on my high level readsMichelle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:11 am Reading Zeus' Iso I enjoy the gimmick very much
@DeeZees you voted alot Santygrass, I found a post explaining his reads looked manufactured, do you remember any post?
After 2 days you said 'i was wrong on Santy' if i understand correctly it was for wagonomics
What do you think now?
Last post I've read #4708 - I think is worthy to check again Golden's wagon
Unrelated: What's your read for me? I'm just curious.
but yes- flipped on santy. he's basically solving and mixing it up. dece
I think you seem fine too !
- Inawordyes
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 299
- Posts: 774
- Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:02 pm
- Aka: Iawy
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
RE: the discussion earlier about the mafia scout, this may just be a dumb thought in my ignorance (as I’m basically starting super late), but pretty much any time I’ve ever been part of a scumteam that had a cop, they pretty much always NK a top player and check a top player. There’s a bunch of people ITT who I know outside these walls to be really good players that I’m honestly surprised are still alive. So my general assumption is that they’re scouting top players. The fact that so many who I would expect to have died by now aren’t dead in favor of more questionable NK choices has a good chance of indicating that a good chunk of the people who are currently leading the town are NPCs, and the mafia team knows it and are steering clear (or are mafia themselves, but I’m not gonna delve down that tinfoil when I have literally no info on anything this game to even think I’m qualified to suggest it as an option)
Which is really sad and sucky if true because if the actual town players aren’t stepping up as much (hello, I’m the problem, it’s me), then we are going to be in a rough situation after the remaining NPCs get purged EoD7 if most of the top thread leaders go with them
Which is really sad and sucky if true because if the actual town players aren’t stepping up as much (hello, I’m the problem, it’s me), then we are going to be in a rough situation after the remaining NPCs get purged EoD7 if most of the top thread leaders go with them
- Inawordyes
- Corrupt Union Official
- Posts in topic: 299
- Posts: 774
- Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:02 pm
- Aka: Iawy
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 3 Ends 10am Dec 11 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
How likely is it for everybody on Lily’s wagon to be a player?pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:51 pm pyxxy's D5 color vote count post V5
V2 - updated for missing the d3 min post deaths (sorry about that)
V3 - updated for missing the first Prince J, thank you Michelle
V4 - accidentally hit enter when trying to update it, no changes
V5 - missed coloring arogame as NPC on D1 vote count, color NPC hardclaims as...pink?
--------------------
NPCs are orange, town is green, NPC hardclaims are pink, no scum yet obv
spoilered for size
-----------------------Spoiler: show
Updated list of alive people after D4 + N4:
Spoiler: show
- DrWilgy
- Capo Regime (Street Boss)
- Posts in topic: 213
- Posts: 14883
- Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:54 am
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Aye, you'll hmmm, but you won't question it would you?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:45 pmI'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go HmmmmmmDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:00 pmWhy did you start with me specifically?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pmI call it the Pinata Tactica PrincipiaDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pmYou aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
Poke stuff til things fall out
- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 113
- Posts: 10223
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:39 pm
- Gender: M
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
False. I can and I haveDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:52 pmAye, you'll hmmm, but you won't question it would you?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:45 pmI'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go HmmmmmmDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:00 pmWhy did you start with me specifically?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pmI call it the Pinata Tactica PrincipiaDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pmYou aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine
He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
Poke stuff til things fall out
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show
- Seanzie
- Polarized
- Posts in topic: 345
- Posts: 9289
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:42 am
- Gender: male
- Preferred Pronouns: he/him or they/them
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
One thing I'm kind of surprised that hasn't been mentioned yet in terms of mafia scout play is that idk if it is actually a good idea to kill their early "player" hits. This is especially true if the scout is someone they don't expect to live long.
In late game, if they are in elo with some NPCs still alive, having a confirmed town alive allows them to be outed post-flip, as one example of the benefit.
In late game, if they are in elo with some NPCs still alive, having a confirmed town alive allows them to be outed post-flip, as one example of the benefit.
Spoiler: show
- Seanzie
- Polarized
- Posts in topic: 345
- Posts: 9289
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:42 am
- Gender: male
- Preferred Pronouns: he/him or they/them
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I said pretty much the same thing two games ago when we were both town. Are you afraid I am a wolf WKing you here, recycling a take I made as a townie?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:14 pmThis is accurate & in no way offensive in the least.Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:04 pmFalcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.
Spoiler: show
- falcon45ca
- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
- Posts in topic: 113
- Posts: 10223
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:39 pm
- Gender: M
Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Not really, cuz' this isn't new info to anybody who's somewhat familiar with my playstyle. It's pretty NAI from my viewpointSeanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 6:07 pmI said pretty much the same thing two games ago when we were both town. Are you afraid I am a wolf WKing you here, recycling a take I made as a townie?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:14 pmThis is accurate & in no way offensive in the least.Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:04 pmFalcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show