Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME

[Ricochet]

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

What right does anyone have to object?

[falcon45ca]

@falcon45ca you woofin'?

Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough

I don't believe you.

Yes you do.


Or at least, you don't REALLY doubt me...it is not militant doubt, more passive in nature

[Seanzie]

@falcon45ca you woofin'?

Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough

I don't believe you.

Yes you do.


Or at least, you don't REALLY doubt me...it is not militant doubt, more passive in nature

This is true, but I've got my eyes on you.



all of them.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

That's a lot of eyes

[Seanzie]

That's a lot of eyes

ALL OF THEM

[falcon45ca]

That's a lot of eyes

Yeah, but I bet he only has one pair of glasses.




And if he has a second, they are in junk drawer somewhere with an out of date prescription

[pyxxy]

It's ok Pyxxy, colour PJ in the next though ^^

Your VC is very useful, did you have time to analyze it?

Let me know if there are more NPC hardclaims that I missed, I don't think I'll color any town claims though just fyi

I think it's interesting Manny and Lumi both hardclaimed NPC pretty fast on D1 and have been consistent in their voting behavior since. I would also read them as NPCs personally.

By comparison, SilverKeith going D1 no vote, D2 DrWigly, D3 vote DrWigly, D4 no vote is interesting, purely because it's an NPC claim behaving differently on different days. I don't read SK as wolfy though.

From D2 final vote count:
santygrass (6): Guillotine, Vivax, pyxxy, EnderWiggin, DeeZees, Creature
hollowkatt (6): santygrass, Jackofhearts2005, Ranmilia, Dyslexicon, tutuu, DrWilgy

[with ~7 min to go in D2]

santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)

[with ~1h15m to go in D2]

hollowkatt (5): iaafr (229), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (173), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (40)
santygrass (4): RondoDimBuckle (141), DeeZees (39), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192)

This is before Dys announced in the thread that they were almost certainly town bc on both wagons.

I don't get the impression that there was an attempted save of santy, which I think makes santy look good.

Vivax/santy not paired bc of the way Vivax switched wagons at the end while having no ideas who was a player vs NPC bc D2

+plus

I also think Scotty is rand V .

I hate the Npc shield in slots like Sloonei or Guillo.

Risinq , Dyslexicon and Lily felt towny.

Dezeees awful posting

this would be pretty blatant TMI for scum to post D2 imo?

I declare town!santygrass

(but if there was a save, then one of Jack or Wigly is scum, ez pz)

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm how does literally anyone including wolves know who are players unless scout found ppl lol
Dont get how you conclude with town santy off that post at all
They also added convo about who is npc and who isnt which was pretty pointless
Any wolf could say what santy said there without there being much TMI
Only tmi is who their friends are
So idk how you think that post would require tmi
And wolf santy wouldnt make the post cuz ????? It has tmi somehow???
I'm so confused

"how does literally anyone including wolves know who are players unless scout found ppl lol"
right that's my point

"And wolf santy wouldnt make the post cuz ?????"
you tell me this is my first game with santy but I don't think that wolf santy would make a post like this on D2 when no one really knows who the NPCs are

[pyxxy]

I see Porscha is still obv towning. That's good.

Pyxxy feels like the textbook definition of IIoA to me. Like the analysis that does exist is off and few and far between.

[Seanzie]

That's a lot of eyes

Yeah, but I bet he only has one pair of glasses.




And if he has a second, they are in junk drawer somewhere with an out of date prescription

It isn't a pair of glasses, it is a nonagintuple of glasses.

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

[DrWilgy]

@pyxxy, don't get me wrong. I do appreciate the analysis. What conclusion do you draw from this though?

You've posted plenty, you've put a lot of energy into the game comparatively, but still I see nothing read based from you except the OMGUS towards me.

Nothing the past few pages have really shifted my mindset. Schia is a wolf. Pyxxy and Falcon are both fine yeets as well.

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

[Lumi]

Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0

Not Voting (7): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), Lumi (13), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)

[Lumi]

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly

[Lumi]

Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0

Not Voting (6): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
falcon45ca (1): Lumi (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)

[Lumi]

@Hally
@Michelle

[nutella]

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

[Seanzie]

Y'all should stop voting Falcon.

[nutella]

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

idk im feeling disillusioned

[nutella]

Y'all should stop voting Falcon.

great timing

[nutella]

who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

[Seanzie]

who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

Idk, Hally maybe?

[DrWilgy]

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.

[nutella]

who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

Idk, Hally maybe?

lol

[nutella]

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.

im worried hes actually a comfortable powerwolf (which is sorta his meta anyway) and was just pushing various miss wagons and pocketing me

[nutella]

and today hes very heavily leaning into the neon push which im not really all that confident on especially from her recent posting and idk im concerned im still going in all the wrong directions

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Why did you start with me specifically?

[Lumi]

Also some quick game theory on how town should be deciding who to kill.

Imagine there's one player that is NPC 90% of the time and wolf 10% of the time (Schiavetto)
and another player that's NPC 40% of the time, wolf 30% of the time and town 30% of the time (falcon)

Who should town try to kill?

Well - town should be trying to maximize their win probability - and probably the closest accurate heuristic to win probability is what percentage of actual players are town.

The real players are pretty well known at this point, especially since I actually outed as a player now - so let's say wolves kill a player 90% of the time tonight.

That means that the ratio on Day 6 for chopping a town today will be (9.1/13.1) = 69.47% of players are town
For chopping an NPC it would be (10.1/14.1) = 71.63%
For chopping a wolf it would be (10.1/13.1) = 77.10%

So to figure out what chop gives the highest EV tomorrow, just take the weighted average for each players equity.

A schia chop weighted average is (90% * 71.63%) + (10% * 77.10%) = 72.18% EV
A falcon chop weighted average is (30% * 69.47% + 40% * 71.63% + 30% * 77.10%) = 72.62% EV

So even though the probability that schia is a wolf in worlds where schia is a player is waaay higher than the probability that falcon is a wolf in worlds where falcon is a player, chopping falcon here is still a better EV chop.


Also - I think falcon is just genuinely higher chance to flip wolf than Neon @DeeZees

Could be wrong, Neon hasn't really been townie, but also Neon has shown an ability to be townie even as wolf e.g the Invitational game, so I don't actually think Neon is super polarized?

[Lumi]

Also mindmeld with nutella

I've been kind of wary of Santy for a while - the lily push yesterday was kind of eye brow raising IMO since that was just a bad push, lily should never have been chopped there and I should have dropped the NPC LARP sooner in order to stop it, but I was doubting myself and worried I would be wrong and didn't want to be the fool that shielded a wolf.

The pushes on the Neon / Lily / Porscha trio all in all though feel like they lack actual reason and only exist now because of momentum there.
To be clear, I think both Neon and Porscha have slightly to decently >rand wolf equity because there have just been people that I get town vibes from more - but it's really not enough to make me want to wagon them.

[Lumi]

@ilario

Start playing. I'm checking you tonight, and if you come up as a player and you didn't actually engage with the game today, I'm probably going to tunnel you tomorrow

[Seanzie]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

I am very town

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Lumi Porscha town forever

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly

I'm very confident I've already said I'm quite likely to break the rules.



Mac knows this, and as an Aussie is culturally contracted to support scofflaws

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Why did you start with me specifically?

I'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go Hmmmmmm

[Lumi]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

[falcon45ca]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

falcon is town.



so is falcon45ca

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I think I need more posts

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

But I should be good now

[Seanzie]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

[Lumi]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

Who do you think is a better chop?
Falcon also was a day 1 chop in duck tales, how is this different from that?

[Seanzie]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

Who do you think is a better chop?
Falcon also was a day 1 chop in duck tales, how is this different from that?

I am open to suggestions.

Because I knew Falcon was wolf by then in that game.

[Michelle]

[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine

Back to square 1

[Michelle]

Schiavetto came at Eod like they forgot about the game and they had an obligation to reach the minimum of posts.
This is wolfy behaviour and i think has priority toDay

[Manny]

wtf Lumi you were supposed to be my NPC mason, treason!.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Told you Lumi was town

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

[falcon45ca]

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Falcon is an easy read as time goes on and are an easy misyeet for wolves early. If Falcon is a wolf, taking them out will not severely hinder the wolves (no offence to Falcon, but he kinda hates wolfing, and while he isn't a negative to the wolf-team, he isn't exactly the choice to go deep), and Falcon's best strength as a wolf is he is good at not leaving spew/leaving misleading spew, so flipping him early gives very little benefit even if he is wolf, but leaving him alive will never cause a loss because he is wolf (if we wouldn't have lost anyways), and we will know if he is town or not because elo.

This is accurate & in no way offensive in the least.

[Inawordyes]

Okay, hello. It is me, the “is he an NPC? Is he scummy? We know literally nothing about him but also care way entirely too little to even try and put thought into figuring it out or paying attention to him” guy

Should probably own up at this stage to the fact that I’m actually a player. A really sucky one up to now, but one nonetheless. However, I’ve recently come into some money (aka time, as time is money y’know), so I’m gonna try my best to actually be consistent and here now. Better late than never, at least