The Syndicate

Made wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 7:40 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 7:02 pm

Dana wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 3:43 pm hi I have done the catch up! I can attempt some in depth reads later on when I'm on a computer but just wanted to let y'all know that I'm around a lil bit

What do you mean by attempt (or just in general) here?

Is there something on your mind that you're not sure about? If that's so, the could you share it?

I'm kinda out of things that catch my eye at the moment, and I don't really feel inspired, so I'm wondering if you have something that I haven't really thought about or noticed.

Made, a common man of common salt of the earth types, looked on in awe of Martin. Martin has always had that effect on Made. Martins way with words have once or twice been beyond Mades comprehension.
A simple man made to accept the difference found between us all.

Made in a bout of curiosity wrote: What do you think is weird about saying attempt here?

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:47 pm this is a weird take from Martin. I feel like if he's scum, being wishy washing, and then going on at length as to the flavor of the wishwash is the best way to add volume without substances on a slot that might need a mislynch later. Ironically, it's overly careful. I also don't think I would ever compare Gav's game to Gulio's game generally. they're just not similar like that.

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:54 pm @Sloonei did this end up influencing your decision to shoot? GTH i see Martin as scum doing what he's framing Gulio of doing, but if he set up the orange shot, that's complicated unless martin thinks he can make it to Fx with this push

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:05 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:58 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:57 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:55 pm Also, do we know how many scum are left?

my thought is if there's one, a power move this late in the game makes more sense, if there's 2, less so, which makes martin look a little better in that situation

Probably 2, but I don't know what you mean. What's Martin's power move?

His giant wall on OC. Depending on who holds poison power, it make sense as scum to dunk on your teammate, and ride it into a winning Lx--especially if the writing was on the walls for OC (I don't know how much that was the case cuz I wasn't in thread at the time). Winning L3 or L5 with this play better position rather than L5 on a flimsy raft. @MartinGG99 were you town in Nanook's "bastard" game?

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:10 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:05 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:47 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:09 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:05 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:03 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:49 pm
I agree he has that comfortable-in-thread impulsiveness that is usually associated with town, but idk if you've ever been town when Guillo's been wolf, but he can fake that. He has compared himself to Gavial a few times, and I think that is actually a good comparison, they both are very good at bringing that impulsive posting style into their wolf games.

I'm not fully convinced he is a wolf, but I think the reasons he is being townread by most are exactly what you described, and having been on the losing side of wolf!Guillo multiple times, I don't think it is as AI as many people do. Take away his impulsive posting style, and what do you get?

Honestly removing "impulsive" from the equation and you can't really see much. I mean, to read him without impulsiveness in mind is kinda like not trying to read him at all fmpov.

The only evaluation at that point is the expectation that he has been hunting in reasonable faith. And whether he has been negatively affected during the night. I can't really think of anything else.

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not sure what you're saying here.

I'm not sure if I can elaborate effectively. I'm just pulling this straight from my head.

I mean. It's his style. I don't know how people read things without considering style, and whether doing so would be accurate.

If he's town I would have to take in that they're impulsive. If they're wolf I would have to take in fake impulsivity. In determining either I would have to consider the impulsivity and how that might influence a !town him unless I'm assuming he's a wolf.

this is a weird take from Martin. I feel like if he's scum, being wishy washing, and then going on at length as to the flavor of the wishwash is the best way to add volume without substances on a slot that might need a mislynch later. Ironically, it's overly careful. I also don't think I would ever compare Gav's game to Gulio's game generally. they're just not similar like that.

A few things:

--I think it's inherently going to look "weird" because of this.

--Wishy Washy? What in the world does that even mean in Forum Mafia?

--This isn't directly a take on Gulio. This is a take on what Seanzie asked me in regards to *how* one should read Gulio (shown in red glow); in no way is this going to lead directly to a deletion. I was arguing that he was suggesting to me to ignore Gulio's impulsiveness, and that is problematic because both wolf and town Gulio would use that and thus it would have to be considered even if it were NAI.

--What am I being very careful or overly careful about? What should I be concerned about that's supposedly making me careful here?

weird/sus, same thing, but avoiding hard stances is pro scum. What is your read on Gulio right now?

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:34 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:32 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:31 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:34 am Eh that's probably a bad read, nvm

Martin still not mafia unless Alison is too tho

What's the relation between Martin and Alison?

Alison is hard townreading him

Any takes on Martin outside of Alison?

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:40 pm let's try this one!
[VOTE: Martin] aubergine

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:55 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:46 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:43 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:42 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:40 pm let's try this one!
[VOTE: Martin] aubergine

Your focus so far today has been almost exclusively spent on Martin. Why is this?

This isn't true, but I'm reading his iso so that's where my heads at. Do you have thoughts on Martin?

Yes, you have already asked me for them and I gave them to you.
Let me rephrase my concern: You came into today as the consensus top suspect. You have begun the day by picking Martin's name as the one you will be ISOing first. You have very quickly and very vehemently (by your standards in this game so far) campaigned for Martin to receive votes. Without looking at anyone else first.

It makes me think you pre-selected Martin as the most viable mischop in the game last night, and now you're trying to push us there.

I mean thoughts outside of what you said re: looking townie for the push on OC. Do you have thoughts on the context of the push now that you know that OC was scum?

And to be fair, yesterday I pushed cleared players lmao. The first player I iso'd today way Allcrab, Ur not reading my post sloonei

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:02 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:59 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:55 pm And to be fair, yesterday I pushed cleared players lmao. The first player I iso'd today way Allcrab, Ur not reading my post sloonei

You asked a question about whether Allcrab was cleared and offered no follow-up.

RE: Martin, I also feel like his reaction to Hawk's roleclaim on Day 3 looked authentic. I do not know whether or not Mafia Martin reacts as strongly as he did there, but my guess is that he does not.

I mean it's probably dishonest to call what i'm doing isoing, I'm kinda just hopping around thread following my nose. I don't know the exact steps that go me from Allcrab to reading Martin's iso, but I probably telegraphed it. The thoughts I'm having are the thoughts i'm saying.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 7:45 pm

Made wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 7:40 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 7:02 pm

Dana wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 3:43 pm hi I have done the catch up! I can attempt some in depth reads later on when I'm on a computer but just wanted to let y'all know that I'm around a lil bit

What do you mean by attempt (or just in general) here?

Is there something on your mind that you're not sure about? If that's so, the could you share it?

I'm kinda out of things that catch my eye at the moment, and I don't really feel inspired, so I'm wondering if you have something that I haven't really thought about or noticed.

Made, a common man of common salt of the earth types, looked on in awe of Martin. Martin has always had that effect on Made. Martins way with words have once or twice been beyond Mades comprehension.
A simple man made to accept the difference found between us all.

Made in a bout of curiosity wrote: What do you think is weird about saying attempt here?

I don't think I said it was weird? I don't believe I was framing it negatively.

Fairly sure I made it clear that I was simply wondering if they were wondering about something that they simply hadn't mentioned. I wouldn't be surprised if we all had moments when we've thought about something but didn't even mention it.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 5:03 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 5:01 pm I haven't been playing too close attention. Do we know why no one died N1?

Public theory based on Gaival is that Hawk got role-blocked on night 1 carrying the kill

idk if there's any other unless there's doctors or something

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:40 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:58 am @MartinGG99 a reads list from you would also go a long way.

My current reads list looks like this:

As of p#4925

Actvscenei - Town-Lean
Alison - Town
Allcrab - Town-Lean
bad bunny - Scum-Lean
Dana - Town-Lean
Garden Gnome - Dunno
Guillotine - Town
hawkataine - Scum
JaggedJimmyJay - Town
Long Con - Dunno
lost monkey - Town-Lean
MacDougall - Dunno
Made - Town-Lean
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - Town-Lean
Sloonei - Town
Seanzie - Town
Sonny/Orange - Dunno
Tangrowth - Town

Basically you can see this as:

Town - I would never allow a deletion here.
Town-Lean - I would review them a bit more and probably defend them somewhat (or more if my town-lean or read is reassured) if they were on a chopping block.
Dunno - I would not care if this person was or wasn't on a chopping block; I have no confident read on them yet.
Scum-Lean - I would prefer to see this person gone, and would suggest it if one of my town-leans or town-reads are an alternative. Otherwise, who I prefer tends towards who's flip I think is likely going to shed light on others AKA the forbidden practice of info-yeet and circumstantial discretion.
Scum - Well, this is obvious. I would actively try to see them gone.

Keep in mind most of these reads may be a result from specifically mafia-hunting; I haven't really evaluated for 3P's or 3P potential. I also may be reviewing my town-leans soon at some point, I get the feeling there may be 1 mafia in there considering how some of my town-reads and town-leans have read each other. I just don't know who.

I have older (not-posted) versions of these if you want them, I used them to organize my general thoughts. Though I may not clearly recall my reasoning for some of those reads.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:44 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:31 pm

Kito wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 6:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 6:39 pm

Kito wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 6:36 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 6:20 pm I received [an item] last night. So I would speculate that we have an abundance of gift-giving roles. I do not think I would have been Owner's target. She was more suspicious of me than not on Day 1.

Why didn't you say anything before?

There was no reason to.

And there is now?

Cancel my town read on you, this timing is pretty atrocious

Let's look into why Kito died las night.

Has someone claimed gifting something to Sloonei already? I have not seen it.

My personal opinion/theory is that they believed having Owner + Nutella flip, while Kito having unvoted at EoD1 and his D1 ISO, spewed him very likely town.

I think even more so if Made was town that they were trying to save Nutella on at EoD1. It could still be possible if made were mafia, and just the preferred mafioso to go, but I'm not really feeling that at the moment.

Besides, maybe its a moonshot to encourage friction among the town-read players. Could be my preference or confirmation bias though; I generally favor those kinds of kills if I were mafia and thought I wasn't in a good-enough position to make to an F-X and have a decent chance of winning F-X.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:54 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:49 pm Oh I see, I was mistaken.

I thought traction was a reference to effort/influence. Forgot it referred to wagons.

I suppose that explains your earlier-D3 vote on me.

Was wondering how that came about.

In that case:

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:52 pm

Dana wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:32 pm
yeah that's fair. so do you think hawk's entire team is bussing her? if hawk ends up flipping town, where would you look next?

On an independent level, I'm fairly confident a number of the current Hawk voters are town. However, if we're going to assume suspicious votes or bussers, though:

Voters: Seanzie, Sloonei, Made, Actvscenei, Alison, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, MartinGG99, Garden Gnome, Guillotine, JaggedJimmyJay

For those in this color I wouldn't really question their vote at all. I strongly read these players as town for other reasons.

Sloonei (in this color) is a player who've I've partially sheeped other player's reads (namely my town-reads such as Alison or JJJ) on. Maybe it's because I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about it independently, but I have some trouble believing in a mafia world that contains him. It feels off if it did.

For those in this color, I do read these as a town-lean but I didn't feel entirely good about their votes. My gut has been slightly concerned about the votes being performative as these votes were in large posts that in some way or aspect stood out to me from their other posts. I could be wrong though.

For those in this color, I have no clue about them. Potentially because I may not be very good at reading them, but the same could be said for some of the other players (who are not part of this color).

Removing Nanook, the people who I personally would look to for possible bussing are possibly Made/Act/Garden, if bussing is presumed.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:20 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:10 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:05 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:47 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:09 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:05 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:03 pm

Honestly removing "impulsive" from the equation and you can't really see much. I mean, to read him without impulsiveness in mind is kinda like not trying to read him at all fmpov.

The only evaluation at that point is the expectation that he has been hunting in reasonable faith. And whether he has been negatively affected during the night. I can't really think of anything else.

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not sure what you're saying here.

I'm not sure if I can elaborate effectively. I'm just pulling this straight from my head.

I mean. It's his style. I don't know how people read things without considering style, and whether doing so would be accurate.

If he's town I would have to take in that they're impulsive. If they're wolf I would have to take in fake impulsivity. In determining either I would have to consider the impulsivity and how that might influence a !town him unless I'm assuming he's a wolf.

this is a weird take from Martin. I feel like if he's scum, being wishy washing, and then going on at length as to the flavor of the wishwash is the best way to add volume without substances on a slot that might need a mislynch later. Ironically, it's overly careful. I also don't think I would ever compare Gav's game to Gulio's game generally. they're just not similar like that.

A few things:

--I think it's inherently going to look "weird" because of this.

--Wishy Washy? What in the world does that even mean in Forum Mafia?

--This isn't directly a take on Gulio. This is a take on what Seanzie asked me in regards to *how* one should read Gulio (shown in red glow); in no way is this going to lead directly to a deletion. I was arguing that he was suggesting to me to ignore Gulio's impulsiveness, and that is problematic because both wolf and town Gulio would use that and thus it would have to be considered even if it were NAI.

--What am I being very careful or overly careful about? What should I be concerned about that's supposedly making me careful here?

weird/sus, same thing, but avoiding hard stances is pro scum. What is your read on Gulio right now?

I think you find it heavily implied in my first post of this day phase. Even before that, at EoD4 yesterday I ascribed myself to agreeing with most of JJJ's post.

Besides, I believe many (but not all) other people didn't take a hard stance of "Oh, Gulio's town" or "Oh, Gulio's Poisoner". Most just expressed a viability that he could be non-town.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:12 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:02 pm Come to think of the poisoner is Martin.

With assuming 2 mafia and 3P in [Mac, Made, Martin, Allcrab]

The game could end that way however it wants and town would be safe.

You probably have to convince the thread that, when I'm flip town, who else it is and that it must absolutely be outside of that group.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:13 pm Ignoring that both you and made are the current most likely mafia suspects

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:21 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:58 am @MartinGG99 same question to you as the one directly above.

I would look to evaluating Allcrab + someone-else outside of that group for mafia compatibility.

JJJ + Sloon + LoMo I view as very unlikely non-town. TSP, of course, was desperado'ed. And then there are the Masons

In that "if" world where neither Made or Mac are mafia, I might even be forced to consider Alison as mafia in connection to Allcrab. Though I would very much dislike it coming to that (given what happened last time when I let paranoia linger) and probably re-evaluate the masons in comparison to Allcrab + Alison. Regardless, I think such a situation would be a problematic situation for me.

As it currently stands for me I don't think that outcome is very likely. I haven't really looked into it either.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:38 am My current world solve has Mac + Made as mafia and Allcrab as the most likely poisoner.

I'm not really bothered by people thinking I'm the poisoner given the circumstances. For all intents and purposes I don't have any sort of past-experience as 3P to know the differences between me as town and me as 3P so I can't really argue about it.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:33 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:30 pm I'm not evaluating him for being mafia. I'm evaluating him for being the poisoner.

I think I've long considered (on D3 iirc when I thought Hawk was mafia) that Allcrab would have poor mafia teammate compatibility. I realize that doesn't really hold up as much anymore since that seems to apply to just about everyone alive now.

You suggested the reverse this morning. If Allcrab is now a mafia suspect instead, what changed to take him out of the poisoner slot and why does Mac move over to poisoner instead of someone else?

This (as linked above):

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:38 am My current world solve has Mac + Made as mafia and Allcrab as the most likely poisoner.

Doesn't suggest the reverse.

If you're referring to the hypothetical earlier this day phase, which is the only time I've suggested Allcrab could be mafia recently:

It was a hypothetical world that I found unlikely.

You gave me an irrefutable green-check of both Made and Mac. That really changes things if so and would heavily suggest my view of the game is inherently wrong in some way. Such as potentially over-evaluating compatibility.

In no way was that post implying that I thought he was actually mafia.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:51 pm I did have a mild look-through of those interactions earlier with regards to Mac. My current stance is that one of Made/Mac is mafia. GTH, as said before, it would be both of them.

It would surprise me if both were green. If Made somehow flips green though I will be putting more consideration into my mafia-hunting thoughts than I would if he flips red.

Regardless, I will look at Mac more in the future. Just more-so on Mac and others if Made flips green because atp town's in a problematic situation most likely.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:49 am Yeah, I think I'm probably conf-biased somewhat on Allcrab. I don't want to be on him as my legacy if I get mischopped; that would be potentially problematic for town if they heed the dead at all. His answer to me was overall a good look imo, 75 times out of 100 I say town is more likely to say this than wolf/3P.

I re-evaluated LoMo just in case and I still think he's town. I don't think I need to re-evaluate JJJ or Sloon.

I'm going to look at Tangy/TSP when I get the chance.

Because in terms of mech solve fmpov if poisoner is not Allcrab then it MUST be within Mac / TSP. It could technically be Made but I suspect him for being mafia.

I think I need to re-evaluate Mac just in general for whatever at some point regardless of EoD's flips.