The Syndicate

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:19 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:13 pm I'm pretty obviously an NPC



This is your last day with me

alright, if this is true then someone in

Manny
pyxxy
Ricochet
Svhiavetto

has to be a player unless i messed up somewhere

*cough cough* it’s Schia *cough cough*

[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine

Schia made a blatant wolf move by posting six times ant EoD and acknowledging that they were posting a sixth time in said sixth post. Them being a minposter who comes in and makes five posts and bails had been a topic that came up several times yesterday, so for Schia to intentionally and self-awarely point it out and go above that shows that either they were actively lurking the thread (in which case, why no play game?), or someone told them in scumchat that it was getting brought up

The fact that they’re now openwolfing and nobody seems to care that they’re obviously a player is really super dang frustrating

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:55 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm Ya, not much more info to be gained

I think the useful info is:

These players are basically mech confirmed players (there are some scenarios in which they're not, but those are really weird scenarios, so...)
Michelle
Wilgy
Neon
Porscah



The list of NPCs:
LumI
Manny
One or more of DZ / pyxxy
Exactly one of Jack/Ilario


At MOST a single NPC on this list:
Hally
Schia
Ricochet
Nook
IAWY


I think its time to murderize schia

@Hally
@Michelle
@pyxxy
@DrWilgy
@Porscha
@Neon
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@Inawordyes

@ilario
@Jackofhearts2005
@DeeZees
@pyxxy


Town has the incorrect parity 7v3 - Town needs to sleep to get to 6v3 at some point anyway.

Schia absolutely never is going to be allowed to live after a purge, and so right now is the time to chop it - if you hit an NPC, great, you're on correct parity. If you hit a town, well you were going to hit that town eventually anyway. If you hit a wolf, perfect.


Vote Schia today or I will shame you after the game for being bad B)

Ily Lumi, at least someone kinda understands

Day 7 Vote Count
SoD: #7749 EoD: #0

neon (3): Hally (29), Michelle (18), pyxxy (4)
schiavetto (2): Lumi (19), Inawordyes (1)
Not Voting (1): MacDougall (2)
manny (1): Manny (18)

if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside

If the game is 5v3 do you think town should sleep or should they try to find the wolf?

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside

We’re going to lose an active villager in the night no matter who gets chopped, I know it’s probably not your intention but the way that’s worded it sounds like you want to chop someone who could end up also being an active villager and have two die just so that it’s someone other than Schia

Schia’s death doesn’t change who the mafia decide to NK, unless we chop that player ourselves in our terribadness

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.


[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine

if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though

Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia

no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow

Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?

i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.


[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine

if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though

Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia

no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow

Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?

i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers

You're acting like Neon is a flipped wolf, why do you scumread Neon so much?

Neon almost dying and then completely falling under the radar afterwards while not really doing anything actively townie is problematic

Chopping town~Neon here is nearly game losing!

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside

We’re going to lose an active villager in the night no matter who gets chopped, I know it’s probably not your intention but the way that’s worded it sounds like you want to chop someone who could end up also being an active villager and have two die just so that it’s someone other than Schia

Schia’s death doesn’t change who the mafia decide to NK, unless we chop that player ourselves in our terribadness

i want to kill a wolf today who is actually a threat to us BEFORE wolves have a chance to kill one of me/michelle/wilgy because i think this town needs all the help it can get to find the more active wolves and i don’t trust we’ll be able to do it if we lose another one of our most active solvers

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.


[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine

if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though

Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia

no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow

Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?

i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers

You're acting like Neon is a flipped wolf, why do you scumread Neon so much?

i didn’t say it had to be neon? but i do think she’s pretty likely to be a wolf

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:13 pm

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside

We’re going to lose an active villager in the night no matter who gets chopped, I know it’s probably not your intention but the way that’s worded it sounds like you want to chop someone who could end up also being an active villager and have two die just so that it’s someone other than Schia

Schia’s death doesn’t change who the mafia decide to NK, unless we chop that player ourselves in our terribadness

i want to kill a wolf today who is actually a threat to us BEFORE wolves have a chance to kill one of me/michelle/wilgy because i think this town needs all the help it can get to find the more active wolves and i don’t trust we’ll be able to do it if we lose another one of our most active solvers

As stated yesterday

Just because Schia isn’t posting ITT doesn’t automatically mean that they’re somehow not the loudest voice in mafia chat if they are a wolf. Any wolf is a threat to us, and basically agreeing that you think Schia is a wolf but pushing back on voting them out to instead vote someone who’s more prominent in the thread is baffling at best, anti-townie at mid, and actively scummy at worst

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm Neon almost dying and then completely falling under the radar afterwards while not really doing anything actively townie is problematic

Yes, true, this has been a hard game for a lot of town to get into though, that is empirically true just by virtue of looking at the playerlist still having a ton of people that have been struggling to get into the game.

Maybe Neon is a wolf, I don't know! I've hardly read the game myself! I don't think I've even read more than a dozen of Neon's posts!
But I'm an NPC who can say whatever I want without any consequences and I think that Neon has to be >>rand wolf to warrant a chop there today

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:15 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm
if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though

Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia

no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow

Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?

i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers

You're acting like Neon is a flipped wolf, why do you scumread Neon so much?

i didn’t say it had to be neon? but i do think she’s pretty likely to be a wolf

Who do you want to vote out then Hally? Where’s your head at atm?

Too many of our best solvers in this game were NPCs who eventually stopped caring, and sitting back as town players and letting the NPCs do all the work is actively working against us now

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:19 pm Too many of our best solvers in this game were NPCs who eventually stopped caring and/or got chopped/NKed, and sitting back as town players and letting the NPCs do all the work is actively working against us now

EBWOP

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm Chopping town~Neon here is nearly game losing!

i don’t see how it matters either way, regardless wolves need two mislunches

if we mislunch v!neon after we kill w!schia it’s the same difference as mislunching neon before we kill schia

the order is irrelevant unless you think neon (or whoever else we kill) would be cleared by a schia wolf flip

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:16 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:13 pm

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside

We’re going to lose an active villager in the night no matter who gets chopped, I know it’s probably not your intention but the way that’s worded it sounds like you want to chop someone who could end up also being an active villager and have two die just so that it’s someone other than Schia

Schia’s death doesn’t change who the mafia decide to NK, unless we chop that player ourselves in our terribadness

i want to kill a wolf today who is actually a threat to us BEFORE wolves have a chance to kill one of me/michelle/wilgy because i think this town needs all the help it can get to find the more active wolves and i don’t trust we’ll be able to do it if we lose another one of our most active solvers

As stated yesterday

Just because Schia isn’t posting ITT doesn’t automatically mean that they’re somehow not the loudest voice in mafia chat if they are a wolf. Any wolf is a threat to us, and basically agreeing that you think Schia is a wolf but pushing back on voting them out to instead vote someone who’s more prominent in the thread is baffling at best, anti-townie at mid, and actively scummy at worst

i’ll bet you 1 billion dollars that schia is not masterminding in wolf chat

that’s just silly

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:17 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:15 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm

Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia

no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow

Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?

i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers

You're acting like Neon is a flipped wolf, why do you scumread Neon so much?

i didn’t say it had to be neon? but i do think she’s pretty likely to be a wolf

Who do you want to vote out then Hally? Where’s your head at atm?

read my posts and you’ll find out

here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear

1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well

2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves

3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.

4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want

tell me which of these things is wrong

@Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:42 pm @Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?

and is there anyone you think isn’t a wolf with schia?

@ilario can you iso dz and tell me what you think? it’s not long

I was writing a mathematical proof to show that the only time you should not chop Schia today is if at least one of the following two are true:

1) Schia is town and will somehow townclear themselves and never be ML'd
2) If the slot town chops today is a player, then [the probability of that player being a wolf] is greater than [the probability of hitting a wolf post-NPC purge]

And since they are both obviously not true - anyone advocating to not chop Schia today is actually just wolfsiding on average.



But then I realized I'm an NPC and shouldn't be wasting any more of my time on this lmao

If you want to play suboptimally, be my guest ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

By all means, people should still be solving today, and it shouldn't just devolve into an auto-day.

But even if the day where Schia gets chopped is doomed to be an autopilot day, wouldn't it be better that wasted day were before the purge, rather than after it when there's sudden clarity?

Like it just feels like a huge waste to make Day 8 be the turbo Schia day when you have the chance to get that wasted day out of the way without messing up your parity!

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:33 pm By all means, people should still be solving today, and it shouldn't just devolve into an auto-day.

But even if the day where Schia gets chopped is doomed to be an autopilot day, wouldn't it be better that wasted day were before the purge, rather than after it when there's sudden clarity?

Like it just feels like a huge waste to make Day 8 be the turbo Schia day when you have the chance to get that wasted day out of the way without messing up your parity!

i don’t think the bolded matters because i think it’s clear who almost every player is and the only “clarity” we will get post-purge is which of rico/schia is the wolf that’s been larping as an NPC

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:35 pm here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear

1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well

2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves

3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.

4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want

tell me which of these things is wrong

Choosing to go for someone that's not Schia today is choosing to hunt for wolves in a very cloudy sea of wolves and NPCs that make good solving much more difficult.

Mathematically, you only come out ahead if you can hit a wolf today with a higher probability than hitting a wolf on day 8 post-purge.

I am highly, highly skeptical that you + Wilgy + Michelle all being alive is enough to offset the other handicaps that are present to solving today. And it even runs counter to conventional FM wisdom which states that in general solving gets easier as time goes on as the player pool narrows.
There's not even any guarantee that you + Wilgy + Michelle are all town!

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:33 pm By all means, people should still be solving today, and it shouldn't just devolve into an auto-day.

But even if the day where Schia gets chopped is doomed to be an autopilot day, wouldn't it be better that wasted day were before the purge, rather than after it when there's sudden clarity?

Like it just feels like a huge waste to make Day 8 be the turbo Schia day when you have the chance to get that wasted day out of the way without messing up your parity!

i don’t think the bolded matters because i think it’s clear who almost every player is and the only “clarity” we will get post-purge is which of rico/schia is the wolf that’s been larping as an NPC

If you think the probability of hitting a wolf today is higher than the probability of hitting a wolf post-purge with a schia chop today. Then go ahead and advocate to not chop Schia today.

But unless you think that, then not chopping Schia today is wolfsiding. It's really as simple as that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:40 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:33 pm By all means, people should still be solving today, and it shouldn't just devolve into an auto-day.

But even if the day where Schia gets chopped is doomed to be an autopilot day, wouldn't it be better that wasted day were before the purge, rather than after it when there's sudden clarity?

Like it just feels like a huge waste to make Day 8 be the turbo Schia day when you have the chance to get that wasted day out of the way without messing up your parity!

i don’t think the bolded matters because i think it’s clear who almost every player is and the only “clarity” we will get post-purge is which of rico/schia is the wolf that’s been larping as an NPC

If you think the probability of hitting a wolf today is higher than the probability of hitting a wolf post-purge with a schia chop today. Then go ahead and advocate to not chop Schia today.

But unless you think that, then not chopping Schia today is wolfsiding. It's really as simple as that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(and to be clear, that's the normalized probability of hitting a wolf, e.g if you hit an NPC 42% of the time, hit town 36% of the time, and hit a wolf 22% of the time, then that gets normalized to hitting a wolf (22 / (22+36)) = 37.93% of the time.)

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:35 pm here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear

1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well

2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves

3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.

4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want

tell me which of these things is wrong

Choosing to go for someone that's not Schia today is choosing to hunt for wolves in a very cloudy sea of wolves and NPCs that make good solving much more difficult.

Mathematically, you only come out ahead if you can hit a wolf today with a higher probability than hitting a wolf on day 8 post-purge.

I am highly, highly skeptical that you + Wilgy + Michelle all being alive is enough to offset the other handicaps that are present to solving today. And it even runs counter to conventional FM wisdom which states that in general solving gets easier as time goes on as the player pool narrows.
There's not even any guarantee that you + Wilgy + Michelle are all town!

the reason i don’t care about the purge narrowing the pool is because i think it’s fairly obvious what almost the entire player list is and has been for a while

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:42 pm @Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?

I'm not a player, I've hardly read the game, I don't actually have much thought as to who's wolfy - I'm just here to debate game theory

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:43 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:42 pm @Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?

I'm not a player, I've hardly read the game, I don't actually have much thought as to who's wolfy - I'm just here to debate game theory

your game theory ignores the context of the game that you haven’t read

luckily i have

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:42 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:35 pm here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear

1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well

2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves

3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.

4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want

tell me which of these things is wrong

Choosing to go for someone that's not Schia today is choosing to hunt for wolves in a very cloudy sea of wolves and NPCs that make good solving much more difficult.

Mathematically, you only come out ahead if you can hit a wolf today with a higher probability than hitting a wolf on day 8 post-purge.

I am highly, highly skeptical that you + Wilgy + Michelle all being alive is enough to offset the other handicaps that are present to solving today. And it even runs counter to conventional FM wisdom which states that in general solving gets easier as time goes on as the player pool narrows.
There's not even any guarantee that you + Wilgy + Michelle are all town!

the reason i don’t care about the purge narrowing the pool is because i think it’s fairly obvious what almost the entire player list is and has been for a while

If you think your chances of hitting a wolf today are higher than your chances of hitting a wolf on day 8 after a schia chop today - then by all means. It's really as simple as that.

If you think the purge narrowing the pool isn't going to actually change anything, and you think that you can get the actual players to start taking the game seriously and doing AI stuff, and think that you don't need the extra 48 hours from Day 8 for solving and can just get to a wolf in the 48 hours today, and think that actually those next 48 hours are going to be worse off because you're losing Wilgy or Michelle, then by all means - I am literally unable to vote against you!

I just disagree ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I think you're right in wanting to take advantage of Wilgy and Michelle and you all being alive and do your best to solve today so that you can come into Day 8 with some clear plans after a Schia chop today even if one of you three die. But I don't think that it's correct to not chop Schia.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:48 pm

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:43 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:42 pm @Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?

I'm not a player, I've hardly read the game, I don't actually have much thought as to who's wolfy - I'm just here to debate game theory

your game theory ignores the context of the game that you haven’t read

luckily i have

The theory is context invariant B)

Anyway, I'm going for real, if you chop outside Schia today and hit a town, I'm going to be real smug in DVC

I'm still cheering for town though, I hope you hit a wolf!!!

Good luck!!!!

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:57 pm Anyway, I'm going for real, if you chop outside Schia today and hit a town, I'm going to be real smug in DVC

I'm still cheering for town though, I hope you hit a wolf!!!

Good luck!!!!

(I just realized this can be read as sarcastic, I'm not trying to be sarcastic it was meant to be genuine! I think this setup is super wolf sided and thought it would be fun to try to townside as best as I can without really reading the game, I'm still rooting for town!)

Day 7 Vote Count
SoD: #7749 EoD: #0

neon (3): Hally (43), Michelle (18), pyxxy (4)
schiavetto (2): Lumi (34), Inawordyes (8)
Not Voting (1): MacDougall (2)
manny (1): Manny (18)

cya

anyway, let’s kill neon

oh, also we have clear alive today

illario claimed PR and hasn’t been cc’d, so we shouldn’t “sleep” regardless of anything else

you don’t sleep when there’s a clear alive, you use the clear’s vote to help lunch a wolf

hope he’ll actually get engaged today

i’d really like his reads

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 8:04 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:59 pm Day 6 Vote Count
SoD: #6770 EoD: #0

falcon45ca (6): Lumi (22), nutella (156), Porscha (57), Seanzie (204), Hally (113), Jackofhearts2005 (88)
pyxxy (3): Neon (38), DrWilgy (27), DeeZees (50)
Not Voting (2): MacDougall (5), Schiavetto (2)
porscha (2): Michelle (27), falcon45ca (20)
nutella (2): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (7), Manny (19)
neon (1): pyxxy (48)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
spirityo (1): ilario (20)
schiavetto (1): Inawordyes (57)
ilario (1): sprityo (2)

Falcon45ca has been crushed by the might of McAfee Antivirus. He was

Spoiler: show

a villager ya silly billies.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 8:28 pm A giant foot with toenails painted red ascended from the heavens and crushed two people named Sprityo, an NPC and Nutella, a villager TO THE DEATH.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:12 pm Seanzie dies. There goes the town scout.

Its day 7. Final day with NPCs.

I didn't have any reason to scumread Falcon or townread Porscha. I made that shit up for fun. Nutella called bullshit on me thinking Porscha was an obvious townie and she was right. Fair play, @nutella

just gonna say, jack is very likely an NPC and i’m not convinced he isn’t intentionally trolling so i’d sincerely suggest ignoring any reads he makes today

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:18 am I didn't have any reason to scumread Falcon or townread Porscha. I made that shit up for fun. Nutella called bullshit on me thinking Porscha was an obvious townie and she was right. Fair play, @nutella

wow what an x-post

sup, how’s that troll life treating ya

I've believed most of the shit I've said this game, though, cause I am a townie irl. I'm just chaotic good and sometimes the chaotic got the better of me. Would have been funny if it had lead to me yeeting wolves or getting nightkilled but this is fine too.

I intended to for realzies CC Illario but I was on mobile at the time and mobile search is busted if you have too many players in the game. Can't scroll to Mac's so I couldn't figure out who got got on N1 so I was like "eh fuck it. Nevermind."

Like for instance, I really do strongly townread Michelle and Wilgy. If I'm wrong, I'll pretend I made up those reads but you should treat them as real reads.