Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:42 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:35 pm
here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear
1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well
2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves
3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.
4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want
tell me which of these things is wrong
Choosing to go for someone that's not Schia today is choosing to hunt for wolves in a very cloudy sea of wolves and NPCs that make good solving much more difficult.
Mathematically, you only come out ahead if you can hit a wolf today with a
higher probability than hitting a wolf on day 8 post-purge.
I am highly, highly skeptical that you + Wilgy + Michelle all being alive is enough to offset the other handicaps that are present to solving today. And it even runs counter to conventional FM wisdom which states that in general solving gets easier as time goes on as the player pool narrows.
There's not even any guarantee that you + Wilgy + Michelle are all town!
the reason i don’t care about the purge narrowing the pool is because i think it’s fairly obvious what almost the entire player list is and has been for a while
If you think your chances of hitting a wolf today are higher than your chances of hitting a wolf on day 8 after a schia chop today - then by all means. It's really as simple as that.
If you think the purge narrowing the pool isn't going to actually change anything, and you think that you can get the actual players to start taking the game seriously and doing AI stuff, and think that you don't need the extra 48 hours from Day 8 for solving and can just get to a wolf in the 48 hours today, and think that actually those next 48 hours are going to be worse off because you're losing Wilgy or Michelle, then by all means - I am literally unable to vote against you!
I just disagree ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I think you're right in wanting to take advantage of Wilgy and Michelle and you all being alive and do your best to solve today so that you can come into Day 8 with some clear plans after a Schia chop today even if one of you three die. But I don't think that it's correct to not chop Schia.