Re: ɒiʇɒM: Mafia Wins

[Marmot]

prediction-
I go over,
someone totally scummy like luckbox is killed tonight.

In that case, I think an ambiguous Under the radar person like Dolby should get lynched tomorrow.

I just fear that one of Wilgy or NAA is the deepwolf and it’s gonna come down to opting to lynch them D6

Why do you fear either one of them could be deepwolf?

Such fear is normal, but if you have reasons to townread them, those are also worth considering.

[Marmot]

[VOTE: NotAnAxehole] aubergine

[Luckbox Inc]

My current scum team appears to look like Scotty/Luckbox/Ruri.

I do think Scotty and Luckbox are compatible scummates.

I guess I would be interested to know what alignment either wilgy or scotty is after all their back and forth. That might give us some info to go off of.

Wilgy seems pretty natural and Scotty seems fine too- but if one is a wolf I'd guess Scotty but I don't see any particular reason why he should be singled out amongst the other posters here either, fwiw

This post from Luckbox, it's quite waffly when talking about Scotty, and doesn't come to any sort of conclusion.

@Luckbox Inc what's your current take on Scotty? Do you think we should chop him today?

Well I start a new job today so my posting is going to be sporadic. I'm fine with Poison and Sonny as wolves though-- still working on the third.

You are my top townread

Am I doing this right?

Real talk, m8s

I like sloon’s suggestion of keeping a strong town voice or two, but might it also be a good move to try and kill obvious town when we see it?

Mafia still has to kill at night, and they might as well kill the towniest like usual, decreasing our odds of finding towniest. So each day will start anew finding our towniest voices. Is that a viable strategy? Hmm

Luckbox is my current towniest read. Cant place why

Scotty went through Day 1 with Luckbox as his top townread. No reason for it. He even admitted that. It wasn't until today when he decided to question it. I do find that convenient, in that we've talked about chopping scum today, and scum are gonna start nightkilling each other soon if the former doesn't happen. It could be coincidence though, as a town player will hopefully reconsider their reads at some point. I don't think that's the case here though.

honestly scotty is probably the person I'm least likely to be partnered with given how linked up we were. that's not really something wolves do, imo

[Gavial]

Scum can link up as much as they can distance real well.
It’s not about what can do but how they do it.

[Marmot]

Who ya voting @Luckbox Inc ?

[Gavial]

Who ya voting @Luckbox Inc ?

Clearly Themselves.

[Ruri]

My activity is bad lately due to IRL BTW. Apologies to everyone. It's worse than the bare minimum I usually have, I think.

[Ruri]

So Scotty and NAA are apparently the most obvtown there is here. Who are the lurkers?

[Marmot]

So Scotty and NAA are apparently the most obvtown there is here. Who are the lurkers?

What do you make of 'em?

[Ruri]

I still think it would be best to sort out the lurkers. As this is a jestery game, those who play suboptimally are likely going to be left alone so as to up the chances of wolves winning.

[Marmot]

I still think it would be best to sort out the lurkers. As this is a jestery game, those who play suboptimally are likely going to be left alone so as to up the chances of wolves winning.

Any lurkers in particular? You do kinda fall under that category looking purely at post count.

[Ruri]

My original statement was to get rid of the slankers and leave obvtown alive to eat the bullet. Get enough of obvtown, and the game should be easy. Wolves are already killing off the obvtown.

I know I'm one of the lurkers, since this is how I usually play. Maybe a bit less due to IRL, but I'd like to know if there's other lurkers.

Finding and voting off a strong wolf could prevent them from offing one of the lurker wolves to win the game. Not sure who those strong wolves are though.

[Ruri]

I also don't think I have to keep track of post count since I probably racked up a lot by now.

[sabie12]

My original statement was to get rid of the slankers and leave obvtown alive to eat the bullet. Get enough of obvtown, and the game should be easy. Wolves are already killing off the obvtown.

I know I'm one of the lurkers, since this is how I usually play. Maybe a bit less due to IRL, but I'd like to know if there's other lurkers.

Finding and voting off a strong wolf could prevent them from offing one of the lurker wolves to win the game. Not sure who those strong wolves are though.

I have had a similar problem as this game came at a weird time for me and I haven't been able to be around as much as I wanted which I guess puts me in the lurker category.

So are you saying you think we should vote out a lurker or someone you think is a "strong wolf"? Do you think we should be voting somewhere different?

[sabie12]

So Scotty and NAA are apparently the most obvtown there is here. Who are the lurkers?

Are they obvtown? I voted scotty because I thought knowing for sure what alignment he is would help us figure things out. He also seems kind of contradictory about whether he thought we should vote him out and then getting annoyed that people were voting him. NAA all of a sudden hasn't been around today when he was one of the more talkative people earlier. I don't know that I would call him obv town. I guess I don't have anyone as obvtown at the moment. I do think some people seem kinda towny to me like marmot and wilgy but others I feel kind of unsure about. I guess at this point I'm trying to make a decision based on what would help us further the game and figure more things out so we know where to go moving forward.

[Scotty]

I see nothing much has transpired.

Except I don’t like being tied. I don’t know if GMan’s vague tiebreaker helps or hurts.

Worst case scenario the lynch stalls and no one is lynched, but based on the structure of the mafia kill conditions, I feel like that isn’t likely at all

Regardless, we’re missing 3 votes, including both DOOM and luckbox who are my top scum reads

[Scotty]

My current scum team appears to look like Scotty/Luckbox/Ruri.

I do think Scotty and Luckbox are compatible scummates.

I guess I would be interested to know what alignment either wilgy or scotty is after all their back and forth. That might give us some info to go off of.

Wilgy seems pretty natural and Scotty seems fine too- but if one is a wolf I'd guess Scotty but I don't see any particular reason why he should be singled out amongst the other posters here either, fwiw

This post from Luckbox, it's quite waffly when talking about Scotty, and doesn't come to any sort of conclusion.

@Luckbox Inc what's your current take on Scotty? Do you think we should chop him today?

Well I start a new job today so my posting is going to be sporadic. I'm fine with Poison and Sonny as wolves though-- still working on the third.

You are my top townread

Am I doing this right?

Real talk, m8s

I like sloon’s suggestion of keeping a strong town voice or two, but might it also be a good move to try and kill obvious town when we see it?

Mafia still has to kill at night, and they might as well kill the towniest like usual, decreasing our odds of finding towniest. So each day will start anew finding our towniest voices. Is that a viable strategy? Hmm

Luckbox is my current towniest read. Cant place why

Scotty went through Day 1 with Luckbox as his top townread. No reason for it. He even admitted that. It wasn't until today when he decided to question it. I do find that convenient, in that we've talked about chopping scum today, and scum are gonna start nightkilling each other soon if the former doesn't happen. It could be coincidence though, as a town player will hopefully reconsider their reads at some point. I don't think that's the case here though.

honestly scotty is probably the person I'm least likely to be partnered with given how linked up we were. that's not really something wolves do, imo

like what is this? You pop in at end of day just to say this, then peace out back to your cave of wonders?

[DaughterOfOmega]

Anyway, {M}armot comes before {S}cotty in PEMDAS I just realized.

How bout them apples, calculus professor @DaughterOfOmega ?

?

[Scotty]

Vote early and often people. As Smokey the bear would say: “Only YOU can prevent lame duck voting nonsense”


Paraphrasing of course

[DaughterOfOmega]

I mean I did vote but?

[Scotty]

I mean I did vote but?

5. Votes in the poll are the only votes that count. It's helpful but not mandatory that you declare your vote in the thread in a way that stands out to the host.

[Scotty]

Also hi DoOm, since you’re here: got any hot takes? Favorite doctors, rodents, weaponholes, sound systems, containers, priestesses, idiots?

[DaughterOfOmega]

Vote:gavial

[Scotty]

Also hi DoOm, since you’re here: got any hot takes? Favorite doctors, rodents, weaponholes, sound systems, containers, priestesses, idiots?

Oh, and gavial

[DaughterOfOmega]

Also hi DoOm, since you’re here: got any hot takes? Favorite doctors, rodents, weaponholes, sound systems, containers, priestesses, idiots?

Well I rewatched my favorite animated movie. Right now procrastinating my chem exam. It's at 9am tomorrow, but I've mostly studied for it

[Gavial]

Also hi DoOm, since you’re here: got any hot takes? Favorite doctors, rodents, weaponholes, sound systems, containers, priestesses, idiots?

Oh, and gavial

Yeah my favourite idiot is the person standing behind you as your reading this.

[Gavial]

Vote:gavial

Vote in the poll. Sheep me if you want instead of voting me to avoid tie break. It’s up to you though.

[Scotty]

Also hi DoOm, since you’re here: got any hot takes? Favorite doctors, rodents, weaponholes, sound systems, containers, priestesses, idiots?

Oh, and gavial

Yeah my favourite idiot is the person standing behind you as your reading this.

*turns around*

Wait it’s just my reflection. Are you trying to trick me or sumthin

[Scotty]

Vote Axehole here, Doom. Be my friend

[Scotty]

ok well this has been…thrilling.

Just end me fam, ready for spec chat

[Marmot]

Vote:gavial

[G-Man]

ALL TIED UP AND NOWHERE TO GO

The trainees stuck around the garage in the Halls of Justice for the day. No sense in wandering around town when a bunch of psycho biker freaks were on the rampage, even if they were just a simulation.

The conversation may not have been the best, but they made the most of their time together and cast their votes. Once again, not everybody voted, but this time two jars held an equal number of stones.

One of the garage bay doors opened, exposing the jarring whiteness once more.

“TRAINEE #5 AND #11,” THE GAME said, “YOUR PEERS ARE DIVIDED OVER WHICH OF YOU DESERVES TO BE VOTED YOU OUT. STEP THROUGH THE DOOR AND AWAIT YOUR FATE.”

Both trainees got up and walked into the white oblivion. As the garage bay door shut, the one next to it opened up. Instead of the whiteness, the remaining trainees saw the town before them.

“TIME TO FIND REFUGE SOMEWHERE ELSE,” THE GAME ordered. “THE GENERAL DOESN’T WANT YOU GETTING TOO COMFORTABLE FOR TOO LONG. HA-HA! HA! HA!”

The trainees made their way to the Sugartown Cabaret. Inside, they found Trainee #11 waiting for them, still part of the simulation.

----------------------

SCOTTY BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SIMULATION.

SCOTTY WAS TRAINEE #5, VANILLA TOWN.

IT IS NOW NIGHT 3. IT WILL LAST UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 9:30 P.M. EST TOMORROW.

THE GAME WILL REMAIN LOCKED DURING THE NIGHT.

NO ONE VIOLATED THEIR POST LIMIT DURING DAY 3.

THE MAFIA IS PERMITTED TO KILL ONE OF THEIR OWN THIS NIGHT.

Spoiler: show

@DaughterOfOmega
@Dolby
@DrWilgy
@Gavial
@ignoramus
@Luckbox Inc
@Marmot
@NotAnAxehole
@Ruri
@Scotty
@sabie12

[G-Man]

SAY YOU, SABIE

The Sugartown Cabaret was a shell of its former self. The bar's inventory was all but depleted, the stage was covered with dead flowers and a shrine to Neil Hartley, and the phrase 'Max lives!' was scrawled all over the walls. Needless to say, it made for an awkward place to spend the night.

In the morning, the trainees made some coffee and munched on what little pub grub was left lying around. When the door to the ladies room opened with that telltale gleam, everyone perked up.
Which of them was departing this time?

"GOOD MORNING MY SIMPLE-MINDED SIMIAN SIMULONS! HA-HA! HA! HA! THE TIME HAS FINALLY COME! THE ANTAGONISTS AMONG YOU HAVE EXILED ONE OF THEIR OWN."

Everyone perked up indeed. Finally, something interesting was about to happen. Who would it be?

"TRAINEE #9- YOU HAVE BEEN A VERY BAD, NAUGHTY TRAINEE. BAD! BAD TRAINEE! BAD TRAINEE!"

In another setting, it might have been funny, but no one was laughing. THE GAME sighed.

"VERY WELL. TRAINEE #9, YOUR CO-CONSPIRATORS HAVE CHOSEN YOU AS THE NEXT DEPARTURE. DOWN THE HALL AND TO THE LEFT, PLEASE."

Trainee #9 disappeared into the whiteness and the door shut. Once again, the crystal jars appeared to collect the remaining trainees votes.

They had work to do.

------------------------------

THE MAFIA HAS REMOVED SABIE12 FROM THE SIMULATION.

SABIE12 WAS TRAINEE #9, VANILLA MAFIA.

IT IS NOW DAY 4. IT WILL LAST FOR 48 HOURS.


POST LIMITS WILL BE CALCULATED AND ANNOUNCED SHORTLY..

Spoiler: show

@DaughterOfOmega
@Dolby
@DrWilgy
@Gavial
@ignoramus
@Luckbox Inc
@Marmot
@NotAnAxehole
@Ruri
@sabie12

[G-Man]

ALL PLAYERS MAY MAKE A MAXIMUM OF 90 POSTS TODAY.
ANYONE GOING OVER THIS AMOUNT WILL BE PUNISHED.

Spoiler: show

@DaughterOfOmega
@Dolby
@DrWilgy
@Gavial
@ignoramus
@Luckbox Inc
@Marmot
@NotAnAxehole
@Ruri

[NotAnAxehole]

I thought I was getting mod confirmed in the night post, but mafia are also trainees.

[Marmot]

I was wrong on Scotty and sabin, does this mean I turn my reads upside down?

[NotAnAxehole]

I was wrong on Scotty and sabin, does this mean I turn my reads upside down?

Yeah, I'm kind of shocked that Sabie died.

[Gavial]

I was wrong on Scotty and sabin, does this mean I turn my reads upside down?

Yeah, I'm kind of shocked that Sabie died.

Why?
They were like PoE.

[Gavial]

I only TR them once and it was only because I didn’t have any other TR then Falcon (who died) and Marmot and because Marmot believe the read I followed him.

Also let’s stick to the plan today and vote off Marmot!

[Gavial]

We are in a good position though.
We just need to make sure we yeet another Town today and I’m very confident Marmot is Town.
Then Day 5 it’s not a huge struggle if we yeet Mafia as they kill themselves anyway but I’m looking forward to see how things are going to be like Upon Day 5 as I think scum will be pretty revealing in thread at that point.

[Gavial]

So 9 of us left alive.
I’m thinking probably like Marmot (-) NAA then if both are Town , scum flips during the night and after that we can look through both scum and look through their vote placement and hunt for associations and whatnot.

So let’s do math.
Marmot exiled flips Town (8).
Town gets killed at night (7)
NAA exiled flips Town (6)
Mafia dies at Night (5)

Leaving us with 5 remaining that gives us 2 try’s to get it right.
For example let’s say I am the Town that died night 4 and the remaining players are as followed: Dolby, Luck, DOOM, Wigly and Ignor with Ruri the one that flipped Mafia.

So we need to look into Ruri and Sabie. Look at vote placement and look at associations. Determine whom is most likely to have been aligned with them or even better find out who could never be aligned with them and vote for them.

Technically all you need to do is figure out who Town is so I suppose you could do the opposite and instead of figuring out who could be aligned figure out who can’t be aligned.

[ignoramus]

Sabie spew although I am Much Less Confident about it

Her 5th post = potential Ruri/Sabie w/w
Her 16th post = higher town equity for Wilgy imo
Her 23rd post reminded me of how they also hesitated in voting someone else - I think that person was Falcon so if Falcon's still alive and kicking they're most likely town (Sabie not actually voting them though is Interesting)
Sabie seems to keep on focusing on Ruri so it's either w trying to help out another w to post more, or it's gonna clear Ruri *because* of the focus on them
Kinda wanna say that it's more of the former but that would need stuff like if Ruri was ever in danger of getting got but then again this game is Weird and getting got is part if the win-condition
I'll try to read what people said about Ruri before and see where this goes
Sabie's last post before she got killed probably implies Marmot and Wilgy town
There's still that hedginess in there but like. It reminds me of how she hesitated on many towns when giving reads (only one that isn't flipped yet iirc is Ruri)
Time to figure out how to search for posts with Ruri's name somewhere

[Dolby]

We just need a town flip today. Then tomorrow we should just vote out the most sus slot yeah, whoever is getting to F3 and probably not being voted out there.

Scotty green not a surprise to me. Sable red a big ? At this exact moment.

[ignoramus]

Extremely ??? take tiem but what if Marmot/Sabie/Ruri team?
Like
If I read Marmot's ISO alone he's Townie
But one thing I noticed Sabie did quite often was to ask Ruri questions
Probably to give her chances to post more often and therefore get more chances to get town-read and get got
And while Marmot did not do this half as often as Sabie did, he did do it for quite a bit and unless I missed some things I don't think he followed up on it
Which feels like w/w to me

Proof:

So Scotty and NAA are apparently the most obvtown there is here. Who are the lurkers?

What do you make of 'em?

I still think it would be best to sort out the lurkers. As this is a jestery game, those who play suboptimally are likely going to be left alone so as to up the chances of wolves winning.

Any lurkers in particular? You do kinda fall under that category looking purely at post count.

My original statement was to get rid of the slankers and leave obvtown alive to eat the bullet. Get enough of obvtown, and the game should be easy. Wolves are already killing off the obvtown.

I know I'm one of the lurkers, since this is how I usually play. Maybe a bit less due to IRL, but I'd like to know if there's other lurkers.

Finding and voting off a strong wolf could prevent them from offing one of the lurker wolves to win the game. Not sure who those strong wolves are though.

I have had a similar problem as this game came at a weird time for me and I haven't been able to be around as much as I wanted which I guess puts me in the lurker category.

So are you saying you think we should vote out a lurker or someone you think is a "strong wolf"? Do you think we should be voting somewhere different?

So while I am still worried it's an extremely silly and wrong idea, I think there's a small chance this is real
Can someone like. Fact check me or something

[ignoramus]

We just need a town flip today. Then tomorrow we should just vote out the most sus slot yeah, whoever is getting to F3 and probably not being voted out there.

Scotty green not a surprise to me. Sable red a big ? At this exact moment.

Yeah
Feeling a Wilgy/me yeet rn
(also I remember reading somewhere where self-vote isn't allowed - does it do anything?)

[NotAnAxehole]

We just need a town flip today. Then tomorrow we should just vote out the most sus slot yeah, whoever is getting to F3 and probably not being voted out there.

Scotty green not a surprise to me. Sable red a big ? At this exact moment.

This is not necessarily true.

There are two schools of thought, flip town, flip town, flip town.

Or try to identify one mafia, and take two swings at finding their partner.

The latter is the most sure path to victory if we can get mafia into a PoE of two, we get two attempts at killing the partner.

[NotAnAxehole]

@Marmot do you prefer a scum hunting Strat, or killing town Strat?

[NotAnAxehole]

So we need to kill 4 town (or 7 slots) to win via killing town.

If we can isolate the 2 svumiest players, we need to kill 1 mafia in the next two votes, and if we happen to fail, we wind up in the same wincon as above. PoE of 4 is winning.

[NotAnAxehole]

Sabie dying probably clears some low posters right? Like doon and ruri can't be together right?

[Gavial]

Sabie dying probably clears some low posters right? Like doon and ruri can't be together right?

Not necessarily.
It all depends what was discussed and why Sabie was chosen.
Maybe they felt it wouldn’t have as much impact if they went off instead?

I don’t rule anything out Tbh.