Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[nutella]

Even if you start with me. if I'm mafia who are my teammates? Like I have no idea what your solve is

[Grogu]

lmfao get out of here with ur terrible discred

Lol just realized you are white bread haha. Hi I’m Focaccia bread, nice to meet you.

no im actually multigrain bread i just stole this from SPF d1

Mulitigrain is deff town. Good to know, if nasty focaccia is town then you are too. White bread not town though right?

[staypositivefriend]

if anybody has any strong reasons for why alison should be considered town, i would very much like to hear them

[tutuu]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

pressing buttons

[nutella]

Man foccaccia is good tho

[DaughterOfOmega]

Okay well, I don't see people having any questions for me so I will probably stop posting since I gave what I had.

[tutuu]

my bread is a traditional armenian bread if anyone guesses it they are the best mafia player in the world

[Grogu]

Grogu breakdown. 150 posts as of making this.
Town reads d0 (Longcon, SPF)
Votes/Mafia reads d0(Long Con, Michelle, Nanook, Macdougal
D1 Town(No reads posted)
D1 Votes/Mafia(No reads posted, voted Michelle)
D2 Town (Esooa, SPf, Tutuu, Made, DOOM)
D2 Votes/Mafia (Michelle, Ellie)

Personal thought is Grogu is much less likely to be mafia, when compared to Koba/Alison. I don't know if I follow the logic Grogu has a lot, but if he is mafia he is town siding on his town reads. He goes to defend town at points where I don't see a mafia doing so.

I scum read Mac and nanook? Interesting didn’t know that or forgot.
Good stuff overall my friend

[nutella]

my bread is a traditional armenian bread if anyone guesses it they are the best mafia player in the world

Is it lavash yes i used google


Tbf i know what lavash is but didnt know it was armenian

[Grogu]

my bread is a traditional armenian bread if anyone guesses it they are the best mafia player in the world

Spoiler: show

[Grogu]

Oh I tried to post Lavash not a siren lol

[tutuu]

my bread is a traditional armenian bread if anyone guesses it they are the best mafia player in the world

Is it lavash yes i used google


Tbf i know what lavash is but didnt know it was armenian

i said no googling allowed in size 0 font you cheated

i also didnt know it was armenian i also googled

[tutuu]

grogu did u google or not confess the truth

[staypositivefriend]

might f*ck around and townlean DOOM

anyone else feeling that way?

[tutuu]

might f*ck around and townlean DOOM

anyone else feeling that way?

yes

[Grogu]

I Think is essoa. Omega let’s vote essoa together, POE gang

[nutella]

might f*ck around and townlean DOOM

anyone else feeling that way?

A bit yeah, and jay thinking she's less likely teamed with alison helps a bit as well

[Grogu]

if anybody has any strong reasons for why alison should be considered town, i would very much like to hear them

I think they are town. I think scum is pushing these grogu, Ali and omega crap to win.

[tutuu]

honestly grogu feels lowkey towny which is completely bizarre to me. i really have no idea what im doing, nothing in this game makes sense anymore. but it never did, did it

[staypositivefriend]

if anybody has any strong reasons for why alison should be considered town, i would very much like to hear them

I think they are town. I think scum is pushing these grogu, Ali and omega crap to win.

hello green friend, could you please explain to me why you think that alison is town? any particular reasons why?

[Grogu]

Man foccaccia is good tho

Too salty imo. I like the herbs but if you put so much herbs then you should have less salt. It is too much flavor and over powers whatever else you have with said bread.

[tutuu]

watch alison flip town and que the circus music

[tutuu]

[DaughterOfOmega]

Alison/Nanook/Esooa is somewhat possible

but baking Esooa first is meh to me

[DaughterOfOmega]

Sorry it's supposed to be Alison/Koba/Esooa

but IG nanook is somewhat possible in that team

[Grogu]

grogu did u google or not confess the truth

I totally gooogle: famous bread from Armenia

I got 3 results but lavash was the most popular. Easy peasy google is my friend. I never had lavash or heard of it

[Grogu]

might f*ck around and townlean DOOM

anyone else feeling that way?

I do

[Grogu]

honestly grogu feels lowkey towny which is completely bizarre to me. i really have no idea what im doing, nothing in this game makes sense anymore. but it never did, did it

Low key? I am so obvious town. I might be biased since I know I am of course.
I have nothing to hide. I think essoa wants me or Alison dead to win

[tutuu]

grogu did u google or not confess the truth

I totally gooogle: famous bread from Armenia

I got 3 results but lavash was the most popular. Easy peasy google is my friend. I never had lavash or heard of it

writing prompt:

grogu, randing town in a mafia game, decides to cheat by hacking the host account and finding the 3 mafia

however, stricken by grief and regret, he regrets his decisions

however its too late, for he must finish the game no matter what, because the fate of the universe depends on it

so what grogu decided to do was...

[tutuu]

honestly grogu feels lowkey towny which is completely bizarre to me. i really have no idea what im doing, nothing in this game makes sense anymore. but it never did, did it

Low key? I am so obvious town. I might be biased since I know I am of course.
I have nothing to hide. I think essoa wants me or Alison dead to win

grogu innocent child

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Alison is there a reason you don't want to explain your nanook read

Right now, yes.

Just ran across this post while analyzing, and it should be considered with respect to Alison's claim of suspecting a Nanook power role.

[DaughterOfOmega]

I think there being so much consensus on Alison makes me want to not kill her lmao

[DaughterOfOmega]

@tutuu btw when I used ignorant or new, these weren't insults from my mind. I find everyone in this game is going to be ignorant of who I am and how I play. Also I feel as if you are reading into only a small percentage of my game to say scummy things about me, sadly when this comes from a town read I have it's frustrating. Reason I said you should play mafia differently

[Grogu]

if anybody has any strong reasons for why alison should be considered town, i would very much like to hear them

I think they are town. I think scum is pushing these grogu, Ali and omega crap to win.

hello green friend, could you please explain to me why you think that alison is town? any particular reasons why?

Just feels she is. I don’t see anything bad in her posts and I think she’s been set up to POE like I have and Ellie, Lc were.

One thing bothered me though, call me crazy or maybe I’m just bad. Essoa voting me and saying me and Ali are partners and I must be protecting her is wild. Looks to me that if essoa is scum he either wants to keep 2 town wagons going with me and Ali.
Or Ali is their partner and he wants to kill me and makes me look bad by using TMI. Since he would know Ali is scum and I defended her so he wants to kill me first for it and keep her alive. Kinda odd since Ali had 3 votes and I had 0...

Do you follow? Idk if this is the right way to think but remember that if I die today. It didn’t sit right with me

[juliets]

Hello everyone, just a friendly reminder to show respect for each other when disagreeing or trying to persuade or defending yourself. There has been a lot of passion in this game and that's great but sometimes passion can fall over the line and sound like a personal attack. Remember if at any time you feel frustrated or upset reach out to Hally or me and we will try to help. You can reach out to us here or on discord. (Note we may not be available in the middle of the night but leave us a message.)

[Grogu]

honestly grogu feels lowkey towny which is completely bizarre to me. i really have no idea what im doing, nothing in this game makes sense anymore. but it never did, did it

Low key? I am so obvious town. I might be biased since I know I am of course.
I have nothing to hide. I think essoa wants me or Alison dead to win

grogu innocent child

Wait are you claiming my role?

[staypositivefriend]

a side benefit of being clear is that i'm not obligated to explain my reads in-depth like i typically am, so i am simply going to post Vibe Reports as my reads fluctuate. i will do my best to write up a legacy wallpost before the day ends outlining my thought process and the best path forward for a victory

nanook > DOOM > nutella > tutuu esooa > koba > grogu > jagged > alison

as things stand, i would need to see a solid case on nanook/tutuu to get to a world where they're mafia today. i am reconsidering nutella and have felt uneasy about her at several points today, but i still perceive her to be outside of her "scumrange", based on my relatively limited perception of her. the strongest argument for her being mafia is simply that she has rode along the consensus POE and then continued to pursue the same angles today (with an immediate push on me/made), but she does Feel authentic to me.

the read on DOOM may shift as i sort things out, but i'm finding a doom!scum world increasingly less likely as the day goes on

out of the consensus "POE", grogu is the one with the most scum equity, in the sense that he has been an easy target for the mafia to pounce on for this entire game but he has largely been shielded by the rest of the players

i am fairly certain that alison/jagged has at least one, but i have yet to see a compelling reason for why they can't be a team

i don't think that i'm 3/3 yet

[Grogu]

Hello everyone, just a friendly reminder to show respect for each other when disagreeing or trying to persuade or defending yourself. There has been a lot of passion in this game and that's great but sometimes passion can fall over the line and sound like a personal attack. Remember if at any time you feel frustrated or upset reach out to Hally or me and we will try to help. You can reach out to us here or on discord. (Note we may not be available in the middle of the night but leave us a message.)

Well nice of you to show up. What are your reads?

[tutuu]

@tutuu btw when I used ignorant or new, these weren't insults from my mind. I find everyone in this game is going to be ignorant of who I am and how I play. Also I feel as if you are reading into only a small percentage of my game to say scummy things about me, sadly when this comes from a town read I have it's frustrating. Reason I said you should play mafia differently

I think that your last few posts after you said you're tryhard iso diving were super towny and helped me find you as town

I'm happy to squash the beef with you and put it behind us, resulting in a townread makes me feel emotionally even better

That said, I can't promise that there won't be a future situation in a future game where you find my reasons for scumreading you silly. I'm not perfect!

[DaughterOfOmega]

a side benefit of being clear is that i'm not obligated to explain my reads in-depth like i typically am, so i am simply going to post Vibe Reports as my reads fluctuate. i will do my best to write up a legacy wallpost before the day ends outlining my thought process and the best path forward for a victory

nanook > DOOM > nutella > tutuu esooa > koba > grogu > jagged > alison

as things stand, i would need to see a solid case on nanook/tutuu to get to a world where they're mafia today. i am reconsidering nutella and have felt uneasy about her at several points today, but i still perceive her to be outside of her "scumrange", based on my relatively limited perception of her. the strongest argument for her being mafia is simply that she has rode along the consensus POE and then continued to pursue the same angles today (with an immediate push on me/made), but she does Feel authentic to me.

the read on DOOM may shift as i sort things out, but i'm finding a doom!scum world increasingly less likely as the day goes on

out of the consensus "POE", grogu is the one with the most scum equity, in the sense that he has been an easy target for the mafia to pounce on for this entire game but he has largely been shielded by the rest of the players

i am fairly certain that alison/jagged has at least one, but i have yet to see a compelling reason for why they can't be a team

i don't think that i'm 3/3 yet

This is a fairly concerning post with how Koba and Alison have posted about SPF but I will deal with that when those two die

[Grogu]

I think there being so much consensus on Alison makes me want to not kill her lmao

Correct

[staypositivefriend]

a side benefit of being clear is that i'm not obligated to explain my reads in-depth like i typically am, so i am simply going to post Vibe Reports as my reads fluctuate. i will do my best to write up a legacy wallpost before the day ends outlining my thought process and the best path forward for a victory

nanook > DOOM > nutella > tutuu esooa > koba > grogu > jagged > alison

as things stand, i would need to see a solid case on nanook/tutuu to get to a world where they're mafia today. i am reconsidering nutella and have felt uneasy about her at several points today, but i still perceive her to be outside of her "scumrange", based on my relatively limited perception of her. the strongest argument for her being mafia is simply that she has rode along the consensus POE and then continued to pursue the same angles today (with an immediate push on me/made), but she does Feel authentic to me.

the read on DOOM may shift as i sort things out, but i'm finding a doom!scum world increasingly less likely as the day goes on

out of the consensus "POE", grogu is the one with the most scum equity, in the sense that he has been an easy target for the mafia to pounce on for this entire game but he has largely been shielded by the rest of the players

i am fairly certain that alison/jagged has at least one, but i have yet to see a compelling reason for why they can't be a team

i don't think that i'm 3/3 yet

This is a fairly concerning post with how Koba and Alison have posted about SPF but I will deal with that when those two die

can you explain this more? what concerns you?

[staypositivefriend]

something that i found interesting is that when tutuu did her "trustfall" earlier, she noted that she had the hardest time coming up with a reason to both townread ~and~ scumread jagged

i found myself in a similar position when i outed a trustfall/distrustfall yesterday

if jagged has mostly just skated by on "good vibes/energy" and there are no concrete reasons to label him town, then that concerns me. it could be indicative of a jagged!scum world. i feel that the possibility needs to be explored thoroughly today

[Grogu]

a side benefit of being clear is that i'm not obligated to explain my reads in-depth like i typically am, so i am simply going to post Vibe Reports as my reads fluctuate. i will do my best to write up a legacy wallpost before the day ends outlining my thought process and the best path forward for a victory

nanook > DOOM > nutella > tutuu esooa > koba > grogu > jagged > alison

as things stand, i would need to see a solid case on nanook/tutuu to get to a world where they're mafia today. i am reconsidering nutella and have felt uneasy about her at several points today, but i still perceive her to be outside of her "scumrange", based on my relatively limited perception of her. the strongest argument for her being mafia is simply that she has rode along the consensus POE and then continued to pursue the same angles today (with an immediate push on me/made), but she does Feel authentic to me.

the read on DOOM may shift as i sort things out, but i'm finding a doom!scum world increasingly less likely as the day goes on

out of the consensus "POE", grogu is the one with the most scum equity, in the sense that he has been an easy target for the mafia to pounce on for this entire game but he has largely been shielded by the rest of the players

i am fairly certain that alison/jagged has at least one, but i have yet to see a compelling reason for why they can't be a team

i don't think that i'm 3/3 yet

This is horrible, why are you town again?

[staypositivefriend]

a side benefit of being clear is that i'm not obligated to explain my reads in-depth like i typically am, so i am simply going to post Vibe Reports as my reads fluctuate. i will do my best to write up a legacy wallpost before the day ends outlining my thought process and the best path forward for a victory

nanook > DOOM > nutella > tutuu esooa > koba > grogu > jagged > alison

as things stand, i would need to see a solid case on nanook/tutuu to get to a world where they're mafia today. i am reconsidering nutella and have felt uneasy about her at several points today, but i still perceive her to be outside of her "scumrange", based on my relatively limited perception of her. the strongest argument for her being mafia is simply that she has rode along the consensus POE and then continued to pursue the same angles today (with an immediate push on me/made), but she does Feel authentic to me.

the read on DOOM may shift as i sort things out, but i'm finding a doom!scum world increasingly less likely as the day goes on

out of the consensus "POE", grogu is the one with the most scum equity, in the sense that he has been an easy target for the mafia to pounce on for this entire game but he has largely been shielded by the rest of the players

i am fairly certain that alison/jagged has at least one, but i have yet to see a compelling reason for why they can't be a team

i don't think that i'm 3/3 yet

This is horrible, why are you town again?

your words cut me deeply, baby yoda

[tutuu]

something that i found interesting is that when tutuu did her "trustfall" earlier, she noted that she had the hardest time coming up with a reason to both townread ~and~ scumread jagged

i found myself in a similar position when i outed a trustfall/distrustfall yesterday

if jagged has mostly just skated by on "good vibes/energy" and there are no concrete reasons to label him town, then that concerns me. it could be indicative of a jagged!scum world. i feel that the possibility needs to be explored thoroughly today

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do Alison and Esooa fit together as mafia teammates?

From Alison about Esooa

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

is anyone opposed to a JaggedJimmyJay, Esooa, nutella, tutuu PoE on D1?

yes

Why is nobody talking about LC's scumslip

I highlighted it too

looked like an obvious joke to me

don't see how that's scummy

I don't think he wrote that post in a way that was meant to be taken as a joke though. Like it's sandwiched between two relatively seriously looking reads. I think there's a pretty serious chance that he was just trying to throw out some random made up reads and picked two random names he saw skimming through the thread without realizing he picked the host.

I don't think scum literally just flat out lie about reads. I'd think he'd at least try to make real ones and not pick random names. So I don't see what you're talking about here

I disagree, I think it's well within LC's scum range to pick two names out of a hat :P

tutuu
DkKoba
Esooa

I would like reasons

ordered

Bombs
DkKoba
JJJ

Removal
Esooa
nanook

Evasion
nutella
lurkers/one-posters
tutuu

Aggro
SPF

Duds
LC

Removal
Esooa

whaddya like

not scum with LC, not scum with tutuu.

does a scum esooa respond to town!tutuu giving her a snap townread by aggro'ing her immediately? I don't think so.

Dk is inno child by the way. Threadspewed/TMI'd out the ass and has not trended down in terms of tone after being townread by half the game.

disagree, half out of spite

spite?

koba probably is town cause I don't think they as scum decide to attack me for bad reasons, it's probably a town thing

towny read for esooa to make imo

think it's NAI but I have esooa as town for other reasons

esooa/tutuu is probably T/T

swap tutuu with DoO in my POE and I am happy with it.

both michelle and daughterofomega have given weird townreads of made that are out of tune with the rest of the thread


is that just the team lmao

Sometimes you have to realize that the evil want to fit in and gain the innocent's favor. You want to attack the people on their own, or giving takes that put themselves outside of the majority. This is something that some town do, because their ideas and thoughts are genuine, and instead of tailoring their responses to gain credit, they just say what is true to them.

Any credit given to this slot for posting thoughts that go against the grain should be revoked because they are clearly aware it is a townie thing to do and are fishing for cred for it

I find this post very awkward. The perspective of it is what bothers me. The focus of the post is trying to limit any town cred I could potentially receive. Though this person has been around the entire thread and would know that not a single person has given me town cred for going against the grain, if this had been a topic of discussion prior, then the idea being a genuine thought from an innocent is possible. Though I've thought for a bit, since this had not been a prior read, what is a thought process that could lead someone to say this?

My short conclusion as of now is that Alison would potentially being an evil alignment, who is coming to the thread with a focus on denying innocents from achieving levels of good cred. I have sat here thinking of other focuses that would lead a town to posting this, which I haven't been able to see.

Esooa has said your post was TWTBAW, which is directly giving you towncred for going against the grain. Nanook has at least heavily implied that he was doing something similar. So yes, people have been giving you towncred for it.

The early trend is for Alison to town read Esooa, albeit sometimes softly. There are a few other neutral mentions/exchanges. It's a tame beginning.

Spoiler: show

I think my towncore is Dk, Esooa, JJJ, nutella, tutuu, maybe nook. Unless I am being completely outplayed this should be close enough to the truth (if not just the straight truth) to roll over the game given the players involved.

you can town read Ellie for her posts but don't lock town her lol

I don't think it's within most players' scum range unless they're exceptionally good

you can town read Ellie for her posts but don't lock town her lol

I don't think it's within most players' scum range unless they're exceptionally good

how?

aggression + ego cranked up way too high in way too short a span of time. The way mafia make aggressive posts is that they want to shout at you until you get off their back. Ellie's was just someone snapping andl ashing out in a very natural, instinctive way.

I think the towncore is pretty watertight right now and I think JJJ would absolutely be freaking out if he was scum and his teammates weren't in the towncore. So yeah, I trust JJJ.

pretty meh on this read

I mean the read only makes sense if you agree with me that the towncore is watertight. You distrust tutuu so naturally you're going to see my conclusion as being a lot more unwarranted than me.

I think the towncore is pretty watertight right now and I think JJJ would absolutely be freaking out if he was scum and his teammates weren't in the towncore. So yeah, I trust JJJ.

pretty meh on this read

I mean the read only makes sense if you agree with me that the towncore is watertight. You distrust tutuu so naturally you're going to see my conclusion as being a lot more unwarranted than me.

actually the biggest reason is this read is applicable to every player in the poe so it's ultimately meaningless

no, actually, this is specific to JJJ as an individual because of his playstyle and personality. I don't doubt that any scum in the POE feels the heat turning up right now, but I think JJJ would take it a lot harder than most other players because of how much he values town cores and thinks the game revolves around them.

unless ur gaslighting them...

sorry y'all be we're pretty far from a towncore, and tbh it's a dangerous to imply otherwise

Esooa: I think X is false.
Alison: If we accept that X, then Y is a natural conclusion.
Esooa: I disagree with Y tbh.
Alison: Well yeah, obviously, you disagree with X, so you would have no reason to think Y was true.

X = "tutuu is town", Y = "JJJ is town".

This is not gaslighting and it's a reach to say so.

Why don't you believe in the towncore idea?

gaslight is a strong word, but it is beneficial to a wolf to manipulate people by using true logic as often as possible, even when unnecessary.
it's like tmi-ing to be right without the need to use information.

And i didn't mean to imply mindless sheeping. You can be engaged with a game--and agree with players---and be wrong. That's what i'm getting at.

this towncore feels like it's been given manufactured consent. I don't think we have solid footing/trust to get a towncore at this particular moment, and i think it's inaccurate to say that's where we're at.

Yes, wolves often use correct logic because it's more convincing. That doesn't mean that the act of using correct logic is inherently manipulative or wolfy. Wolves have TMI on alignments, not motivations. Me being a wolf doesn't give me extra insight into Esooa's reasoning, so me assuming Esooa's reasoning isn't TMI - it was a wrong assumption anyway.

I don't think manufactured consent is at play here. Basically everyone interested in a towncore has been pretty happy to do so, and in JJJ's case, happy even when they're not in it. They're not like "well I'm not really feeling this but I guess X said we had to towncore, so we're going to towncore". The general sentiment is "fuck yeah I trust these players they're great, I wanna team up with them!" The sentiments are unprompted and natural feeling (at least to my eye), suggesting that mafia isn't setting townies up to support a towncore against their best interests. It's just townies being happy that they've found another townie.

Esooa's treatment of Ellie feels pretty townie.

If you're just doing bog standard stuff why're you cagey about your plans?

whats cagey mean

Cagey means like, wanting to withhold information.

Basically I'm asking "if your plans are all standard 'read interesting posts, find scum' stuff, why are you saying stuff like 'I have plans that I don't want the mafia to know about so I won't reveal them'?"

I'm clumping posts together because there are so many. This is still Day 0 and a bit into Day 1. The town read continues, with more neutral chatter about Esooa and a couple low-severity exchanges of disagreement. As often seems to be the case assessing Alison, this stuff doesn't alarm me but it is not incompatible.

Spoiler: show

lol dude i know i can, you literally showed me how you play mafia. get fucked kid if youre mafia this game youre as good as toast

lock town

probs your only bad take so far

I have a less strong reaction to that post now especially given Esooa's testimony about her meta but I townread it at the time because the spike in hostility was so strong, and it's not the same kind of aggression you see from scum players trying to get people off their back either. It's just pure ego coming from someone who knows they're town and genuinely resents the suspicion placed on them.

i think you're overestimating your perspective of what the gamestate was at the time tbh. I just read through it, at the time the cards were not laid out as clearly as you are insinuating. The towncore level shit actually came after and in some way as a response to that.

tbh gamestates always feel different in the moment vs when you're catching up afterwards

all I can say it's that's the vibe I got and it's why I said what I said

at any rate, Esooa saying that Ellie has scum meta of using hostility to get townread has nullified my old read so it doesn't matter now.

Hey, I'm sorry for not being around. I've been pretty busy today trying to get a working phone line in order so I can perform my quarantine checkins, and I've been struggling with jet lag as well. There's a lot of posts that's been made and it's midnight so I skimmed most of it. Here's the stuff that stands out most to me.

1) Michelle, you stated earlier that you thought LC was town because his wagon grew too big too fast - ie. that scum wanted to pile on him and kill him. LC's wagon has now broken down and the wagon formations are scattered amongst multiple players. Why do you think this is the case? Under your perspective, did the scum trying to push LC give up and look for other targets?

2) JJJ, what is your current POE? (Sorry if you've said and I didn't see)

3) Esooa, how good are you at reading Ellie, historically?

Alison was willing to step back from her town confidence about Ellie by way of Esooa's testimony. That might be a decent look for dissociation in that a mafia Alison would be ascribing some portion of the responsibility for her take to Esooa.

Spoiler: show

alison could be mafia imo

nah

I want to say something meaningful about this exchange, because it might really have meaning. But I don't know it.

Spoiler: show

I think this interaction is in the scum range of Esooa/LC to fake, but am trending towards both of them being town regardless.

@MacDougall I have a problem with you pretending like like me having one read you disagreed with means I'm scum. It felt townie in the moment to me, and nanook thought the same thing as well. I've explained my thought process behind it and walked you through my progression. Please stop pretending that town Alison would "never have a read that bad" because we both know I've had reads you hated when I was town.

Also Alison is outed mafia. She would sheep my case if she was town and this disconnected.

Why would I sheep your case when you're calling me mafia for my initial townread on Ellie, which I do not think is a legitimate reason to read me mafia

This does not have anything to do with my case on LC and Esooa. I don't have to be right about you for that case to be the super hot fire it is. Coupled with the fact that you know I am town you should be sheeping. You're mafia. Sorry bout the rand.

It's relevant because I have reason to suspect you've jumped the shark. You made a case on Esooa, I read it. I'm not obligated to automatically believe everything you say just because it comes from you. I took it into account and decided I want to press the Ellie button. There has been a fast and furious response to me pressing that button, in a way that's pretty damn useful for spew analysis. So how about you back off and let me do that thing instead of reflexively scumreading me for not sheeping you 100% of the time, after you've called me scum for bad reasons already?

Mac if I am scum with Esooa and LC why would we coalesce on Ellie to defend LC when all three of our metas/MOs as scum would involve the two of us ejecting LC out of an airlock and then going deep

Mac if I am scum with Esooa and LC why would we coalesce on Ellie to defend LC when all three of our metas/MOs as scum would involve the two of us ejecting LC out of an airlock and then going deep

You're trying to say there is no particular gamestate in which you would choose to try to save a teammate on day 1 of a 3 wolf game?

No, I'm saying that if I was wolfing with Esooa and LC in this spot, I would team up with Esooa to bury LC extremely hard and then go deep. The counterargument is that LC could be a scum PR, in which case, sure, but it requires you to believe a very specific outlook on exactly who is scum and what their roles are.

lol dude i know i can, you literally showed me how you play mafia. get fucked kid if youre mafia this game youre as good as toast

lock town

@Esooa Alison lock townread Ellie for this. Alison isn't someone who makes statements like this lightly and backs down from them. You have experienced that very Alison. That I now see her voting for Ellie concerns me greatly. Either Alison is bussing her the lock town read was fake. Alison is always mafia here.

wait yeah hang on

@Alison pls explainerino

My read was "this level of hostility, in this particular manner, is not in most people's scumrange, especially not a newbie". Esooa came in and testified that she had in previous games been able to display this level of hostility as scum, which nullifies my read. I haven't had the position that Ellie was lock town since then, and she hasn't even been on my town core lists. This was an on-the-spot reaction, and I don't feel obligated to hold to it after conflicting evidence comes in and the game has developed further.

Alison's progression on Ellie went from lock town to slightly softened, to voting, with no in-between. No effort to engage her. No effort to make a case. Its almost townie cuz of how sloppy it would be for her. But we don't outthink ourselves with Alison.

Get out of your tunnel and step into my shoes for one minute. There are 3 people who are remotely possible to die today, and who I would find a palatable exe: Made, LC, Ellie (I guess Grogu is there, but I don't want a Grogu exe because it's a cop out and doesn't resolve any of the current controversies). I am jet lagged and juggling various IRL responsibilities. I wake up at 3PM, come online, and see that LC is acting in a way that 1) isn't congruent with his previous scum play and 2) lessens his partner equity with Esooa. I read it as townie overall, and switch to Ellie, who has been fairly quiet and is being deathtunnelled by Esooa (who I townread).

In this position, I'm not gonna bother writing a huge case wall on Ellie. I'm just going to vote her because she's the logical choice if I'm not feeling an LC exe and Made didn't have any traction. Context matters and just because I'm headstrong as town doesn't mean that any time I take a softer approach I'm automatically scum. I got mistunnelled for that shit in Hydra G5 and I expect you to know me better than that.

Well here is some saucy stuff, compliments of dear departed @MacDougall. Mac had suggested on Day 1 that Alison and Esooa could be mafia teammates, and this exchange stems from that. Hopefully I get more of it from the Esooa side later. There's a lot of wifom embedded in Alison's comments -- that if she and Esooa were both mafia (and with LC), that they'd have both bussed him to high hell and gone deep for it. That may or may not be true, but it loses its relevance with LC's town flip. Perhaps there was some hope then that LC's town flip would then dismantle Mac's team theory -- including just the Alison/Esooa pairing. That might be a stretch.

When pressed about her Ellie read, Alison continued to attribute much of her change of heart to Esooa's testimony. If they're teammates, that would reflect really milking the link on purpose. It's possible, but I dunno if that's wifom I care to entertain.

Spoiler: show

Esooa is town because she's locked on to Ellie/Made in a way that feels very reminiscent of the way she tunnels slots as town. She's also been pushing the line that LC is town and it's a position I'm starting to come around to.

From the Day 1 reads list, interspersed somewhere among the posts in the prior spoiler. The reasoning for the town read is perhaps thin, but I think it's suitable for Day 1 standards. Not alarming, but not incompatible either.

Spoiler: show

I don't think scum Esooa acts this way about Ellie knowing that Ellie is going to flip town. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and Occam's Razor is that Ellie is scum, Esooa is cleared, and Mac gets to be a little embarassed in DVC.

tone it down like three notches. this isn't helping us solve the game, esp when I think both of you are almost certainly just town.

people like Mac tunneling me out of fear isn't helping solve either so I'm not accepting it

Mac is out of the game. Please don't force us to read long walls of screaming between you and nutella; it won't change anyone's minds, it's anti-town, and it sours things between you and nutella, when I think you're most likely both on the same team.

cool, really enjoy playing a game where I get based on if my reads are anything but 100% correct while u get to just sound towny day 0 and get lock cleared by everyone and don't have to care at all about if you have a single incorrect reads with players you barely even know they're all gonna apply some kinda insane meta where my reads are always correct or I get hard pushed for entire day phases at a time

I'm not checking this thread for the next 24 hours wtv

Ellie+made+1

+1 in koba/grogu/DOOM/spf/koba (maybe forgetting one)

most likely doom

nutella has agreed you're town regardless of ellie's flip, so it's fine. I agree with this solve. let's just drop the argument and barrel roll a wolf.

Also if we sweep the scum from here and Esooa and nutella spent pages screaming at each other over whether or not Esooa should be treated as 95% or 100% town I'm going to laugh

Also if we sweep the scum from here and Esooa and nutella spent pages screaming at each other over whether or not Esooa should be treated as 95% or 100% town I'm going to laugh

Alison, when people are saying they're literally gonna auto lynch me and it's believable cause of how they treat me, if I get a read wrong

it literally feels like shit to solve the game

me being right on my reads literally determines if 4 people are gonna scum read me and literally never let go of it and guess what it fucking sucks

nutella has agreed that you look townie off this even if Ellie is town, and so does SPF. I'm on record as saying I don't think it makes sense for scum you to suicide bomb like this and you're townie on play in general. You're not going to get auto-exed if Ellie flips green, and you've gotten what you wanted, so let go of this and just play properly and sweep up the game.

Towncore: Esooa/nutella/tutuu/koba/nanook

Knocking on the towncore door: DOOM

High POE: Michelle, SPF

Low POE: Grogu, Made, Ellie

Something like this is where I'm at atm. I think there's a decent chance the team is exactly [Grogu/Made/Ellie], since the interactions make sense to me if it's exactly that.

I'd be tempted to agree with your point about Michelle if she wasn't putting effort into scum reading literally

myself, Nutella, spf

which uh, yeah lol

Yeah, but what's her plan here as scum? Like she's putting in a lot of effort while under imminent threat of death, suggesting that if he's scum she's trying to dig herself out of a hole. Having her scumreads be Esooa/nutella/SPF don't seem conducive to that plan. I'm confused what her goal is if she's scum, because she's not going to save herself if that's her solve. I'm reminded of Hydra G6, where I was hydra'ing with Fatmo and we managed to get there on Bluestar (a very heavily suspected slot) being town because we determined that their play made absolutely no sense if they were scum and gave them no path to victory.

Towncore: Esooa/nutella/tutuu/koba/nanook

Knocking on the towncore door: DOOM

High POE: Michelle, SPF

Low POE: Grogu, Made, Ellie

Something like this is where I'm at atm. I think there's a decent chance the team is exactly [Grogu/Made/Ellie], since the interactions make sense to me if it's exactly that.

how likely do you think it is Ellie and mades posts were distancing?

Also, your apprehension on Michelle makes me want to consider just going Made today. It seems extremely hard to make a team that leaves him out with how things currently are

I'd also like to ask why nanook is still in your towncore? Would be be lower if Michelle flipped scum?

Are you completely confident in tutuu being town? The question I asked earlier would heavily hinge on thinking the PoE is generally very accurate

I don't see Ellie/Made interactions as clearing them from being partners. Made has an extremely strong townread on Ellie for virtually no reason; Ellie thinks Made is lock scum and is very loud about it, and quotes all his posts with comments like "LOOK HOW SCUM MADE IS". Neither of these stances feel particularly out of the ordinary from scum that don't want to spew each other; I'm particularly concerned by the specific talking point Ellie has, which is "Made is scum because he's trying to make me look scum with him when he goes down" - I think that could easily be Ellie projecting her worries about being spewed red off Made's scumflip, and trying to pre-emptively excuse herself from it.

I'd also like to ask why nanook is still in your towncore? Would be be lower if Michelle flipped scum?

Are you completely confident in tutuu being town? The question I asked earlier would heavily hinge on thinking the PoE is generally very accurate

Re: nanook and tutuu - I have seen a tell from nanook that makes me pretty damn confident he's town, which I'm hesitant to fully explain right now. Rain check on this, and I promise I'll explain in later days. For now I don't have any worries about him.

As for tutuu, yes, I'm confident. She's just towntold way too much, and I think SPF/nutella etc. have both commented on this as well. Not re-evaluating her until FX.

About eod gamestate is hard for me to explain my intuition, i had with Ted a long convo about this in one of the last DVC.
You tried to calm down Nut and Esooa iirc, did i remember this wrong? This is a towny move.

You don't think trying to calm down nutella and Esooa is within my scum range? Seriously?

Here's a whole pile of loosely related Day 2 stuff. Much of it is direct dialogue between the two which I think is a bit more easily interpreted. Comments:

- I get a vibe here that Alison is explaining her mindset to someone that doesn't already know it, which would be a good thing for dissociation.

- On the other hand, Esooa's tone is rather docile in a way that I'm not sure reflects her typical exchanges with others (see orange highlight). It's not all like that, so I won't make a big stink -- but I noticed a bit of it.

- I like Alison trying to calm the combat between nutella and Esooa at least a little. I probably let my teammate get into that fight and ruin the thread.

Spoiler: show

grogu posts rn feel towny tbh

I agree.

If Esooa is scum, why would she get "cold feet" about the LC (town) exe and put her neck on the chopping block to push Ellie? Why not just sit back and munch on popcorn as LC dies?

Mac's theory was that she was scum with LC. If Mac was so influential on the gamestate, then LC would have been exed and Esooa just has to shrug her shoulders and go "see? Mac's theory was wrong". Again, no reason to run up Ellie there and potentially make herself look bad.

Also, why would all the wolves pile on you simultaneously like that, potentially exposing themselves/forming links between each other later on that could spew them red, just to get you exed when you were already in the POE and not widely trusted anyway?

For the reasoning you are exposing here.
For being illogical from villagery perspective.
All of them are perfectly capable to do this

No clue about Esooa and SPF but this isn't in nutella's wolf range. She doesn't mind game that deep when she's scum. Can you show me a game that makes you think this behavior is in nutella's scum range?

Here are a few more from Day 2. The first post about Grogu is whatever. The rest feature Alison defending Esooa based upon her Day 1 voting behavior. Typically, I think the reasoning is logical and also team-compatible.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: staybestfriend] aubergine

why?

@Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently

Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

@Alison is there a reason you don't want to explain your nanook read

Right now, yes.

my reads rn

town

Alison, DaughterOfOmega, JaggedJimmyJay, nutella

the rest

DkKoba
EllieDelight
Grogu
Made
Michelle
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
staypositivefriend
tutuu

is "the rest" ordered? because if so I'm sort of confused

I woke up at 3am and can't get back to sleep. Skimmed the thread briefly.

I am excited to see what Michelle does with this brand new poll.

Morning, i saw the poll and i wanted to read the thread to understand what exactly happened.

I have in mind that Ellie was displeased with my lynch, iirc asking why am I close to hammer (i will check her Iso for the quote because memory is tricky) but she is strongly advocating me to be in the Poe.
The same, Grogu except the fact he is funny and with cute avatar, has a frozen read on me that he cannot explain.
If, like you said, Nutella is town, SPF is town and Esooa is town, in other words if i am so idiot that i al 100% wrong, then the first people with unexplained and odd stanced are Ellie and Grogu.
Though, i thought Ellie is villager because of the fast growing wagon on her, but the wagon contains too many town reads so the logic it's not aplicabile.
Town LC was in hammer range, 2 counter wagons emerged, on Ellie and Made.
Which one of them had an early day 1 wagon who dissipated?
I have to check.

After breakfast, sorry i have to live too
Brb

This post is more in line with what I expect to see from town Michelle, wrt fluidity of reads and changing her view when those views are questioned. She's moving past the "nutella/Esooa/SPF are lockscum" line and is fleshing out thoughts about other players (eg. noting Ellie not wanting her to die but hard POEing her).

This + the long post about meta which rang as genuine - Esooa's argument about her being anxious that we solve the game after her greenflip being a towntell work to make me feel better about Michelle.

Before I head back, stray thought that passed thorugh my mind.

No matter how deep a wolf is, their position isn't safe forever. I've been the "solo deepwolf" in enough games to know that when the LHF gets cleared and everyone else remaining is townie, people will realize a deepwolf exists (I sometimes call this "proving the deepwolf"). At that point you need something else going for you than just "good tone" or "townie vibes", since otherwise you'll get POE'd out by people who are green checked or who have multiple pelts to their name.

This suggests that the current towncore poses a threat to the status of the deepwolf. Unless they're buried really really deep in it (like nutella or Esooa or tutuu deep, which I don't think is the case), they need to crack it open at some point. Which means that the deepwolf is actually probably someone who's been targeting the more trusted members to slowly erode their position.

This thought came to me because I was thinking about possible SPF scum worlds and what her path to victory is, and I was feeling like SPF has no chance to win if her teammates are Ellie/Made and her strategy is to just throw me + JJJ under the bus, because at some points the easy exes run out and if the really trusted towncore are still as entrenched as they are right now by then, she'll just be eliminated by default. Nightkills are a thing, of course, but the mafia only have one a night and new people will enter the deep towncore as the gamestate goes on and flips start to clear people.

This is the rest of the Day 2 stuff. Esooa requesting a reads list and then for Alison to [maybe] expand on her Nanook read is a nice little moment that could dissociate them. The rest of it is pretty light.

Spoiler: show

I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

@Made see reads list above. Tiers are ordered, so Esooa is townier than Dkkoba, nook is townier than JJJ, etc.

I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

so you think nutella is playing scum even though she's far out of her scum range?

There's two worlds: "easy" world and "hard" world. Easy world is if the team is something like DOOM/Grogu, and then nook or JJJ. I'm not sure that team fits with the gamestate we had D2 unless town self destructed really hard - none of them have really been pushing their views/reads.

"Hard" world means that one of [tutuu/nutella/Esooa/Dkkoba] is scum. I've never played with scum Esooa or Dkkoba, but I feel like tutuu/nutella have been out of their scum range this game. Problem is that those two are the ones who've been positioning themselves to push agendas like deepwolves, while Esooa/Dkkoba have just seen the claims and then done nothing all day (Esooa just townread nanook and peaced out, Dkkoba has been afk).

Evidence points to the world being hard. If the world is hard, either deepwolf or deepwolves are acting in ways that make no sense, or deepwolf or deepwolves are out of their scum range and have been falsely cleared. I have to take the possibility into account.

Here's the Day 3 stuff. Esooa doesn't appear to be an immediate reassessment priority for Alison. Take that as you will. It may be meaningful that DK and Esooa are the ones that held up as "old town core" and nutella dropped.

This is only half the analysis. Too many damned posts. I think I might be approaching the maximum post length though, so I'm just gonna post this part now and finish Esooa's half separately.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do Alison and Esooa fit together as mafia teammates?

From Alison about Esooa

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

is anyone opposed to a JaggedJimmyJay, Esooa, nutella, tutuu PoE on D1?

yes

Why is nobody talking about LC's scumslip

I highlighted it too

looked like an obvious joke to me

don't see how that's scummy

I don't think he wrote that post in a way that was meant to be taken as a joke though. Like it's sandwiched between two relatively seriously looking reads. I think there's a pretty serious chance that he was just trying to throw out some random made up reads and picked two random names he saw skimming through the thread without realizing he picked the host.

I don't think scum literally just flat out lie about reads. I'd think he'd at least try to make real ones and not pick random names. So I don't see what you're talking about here

I disagree, I think it's well within LC's scum range to pick two names out of a hat :P

tutuu
DkKoba
Esooa

I would like reasons

ordered

Bombs
DkKoba
JJJ

Removal
Esooa
nanook

Evasion
nutella
lurkers/one-posters
tutuu

Aggro
SPF

Duds
LC

Removal
Esooa

whaddya like

not scum with LC, not scum with tutuu.

does a scum esooa respond to town!tutuu giving her a snap townread by aggro'ing her immediately? I don't think so.

Dk is inno child by the way. Threadspewed/TMI'd out the ass and has not trended down in terms of tone after being townread by half the game.

disagree, half out of spite

spite?

koba probably is town cause I don't think they as scum decide to attack me for bad reasons, it's probably a town thing

towny read for esooa to make imo

think it's NAI but I have esooa as town for other reasons

esooa/tutuu is probably T/T

swap tutuu with DoO in my POE and I am happy with it.

both michelle and daughterofomega have given weird townreads of made that are out of tune with the rest of the thread


is that just the team lmao

Sometimes you have to realize that the evil want to fit in and gain the innocent's favor. You want to attack the people on their own, or giving takes that put themselves outside of the majority. This is something that some town do, because their ideas and thoughts are genuine, and instead of tailoring their responses to gain credit, they just say what is true to them.

Any credit given to this slot for posting thoughts that go against the grain should be revoked because they are clearly aware it is a townie thing to do and are fishing for cred for it

I find this post very awkward. The perspective of it is what bothers me. The focus of the post is trying to limit any town cred I could potentially receive. Though this person has been around the entire thread and would know that not a single person has given me town cred for going against the grain, if this had been a topic of discussion prior, then the idea being a genuine thought from an innocent is possible. Though I've thought for a bit, since this had not been a prior read, what is a thought process that could lead someone to say this?

My short conclusion as of now is that Alison would potentially being an evil alignment, who is coming to the thread with a focus on denying innocents from achieving levels of good cred. I have sat here thinking of other focuses that would lead a town to posting this, which I haven't been able to see.

Esooa has said your post was TWTBAW, which is directly giving you towncred for going against the grain. Nanook has at least heavily implied that he was doing something similar. So yes, people have been giving you towncred for it.

The early trend is for Alison to town read Esooa, albeit sometimes softly. There are a few other neutral mentions/exchanges. It's a tame beginning.

Spoiler: show

I think my towncore is Dk, Esooa, JJJ, nutella, tutuu, maybe nook. Unless I am being completely outplayed this should be close enough to the truth (if not just the straight truth) to roll over the game given the players involved.

you can town read Ellie for her posts but don't lock town her lol

I don't think it's within most players' scum range unless they're exceptionally good

you can town read Ellie for her posts but don't lock town her lol

I don't think it's within most players' scum range unless they're exceptionally good

how?

aggression + ego cranked up way too high in way too short a span of time. The way mafia make aggressive posts is that they want to shout at you until you get off their back. Ellie's was just someone snapping andl ashing out in a very natural, instinctive way.

I think the towncore is pretty watertight right now and I think JJJ would absolutely be freaking out if he was scum and his teammates weren't in the towncore. So yeah, I trust JJJ.

pretty meh on this read

I mean the read only makes sense if you agree with me that the towncore is watertight. You distrust tutuu so naturally you're going to see my conclusion as being a lot more unwarranted than me.

I think the towncore is pretty watertight right now and I think JJJ would absolutely be freaking out if he was scum and his teammates weren't in the towncore. So yeah, I trust JJJ.

pretty meh on this read

I mean the read only makes sense if you agree with me that the towncore is watertight. You distrust tutuu so naturally you're going to see my conclusion as being a lot more unwarranted than me.

actually the biggest reason is this read is applicable to every player in the poe so it's ultimately meaningless

no, actually, this is specific to JJJ as an individual because of his playstyle and personality. I don't doubt that any scum in the POE feels the heat turning up right now, but I think JJJ would take it a lot harder than most other players because of how much he values town cores and thinks the game revolves around them.

unless ur gaslighting them...

sorry y'all be we're pretty far from a towncore, and tbh it's a dangerous to imply otherwise

Esooa: I think X is false.
Alison: If we accept that X, then Y is a natural conclusion.
Esooa: I disagree with Y tbh.
Alison: Well yeah, obviously, you disagree with X, so you would have no reason to think Y was true.

X = "tutuu is town", Y = "JJJ is town".

This is not gaslighting and it's a reach to say so.

Why don't you believe in the towncore idea?

gaslight is a strong word, but it is beneficial to a wolf to manipulate people by using true logic as often as possible, even when unnecessary.
it's like tmi-ing to be right without the need to use information.

And i didn't mean to imply mindless sheeping. You can be engaged with a game--and agree with players---and be wrong. That's what i'm getting at.

this towncore feels like it's been given manufactured consent. I don't think we have solid footing/trust to get a towncore at this particular moment, and i think it's inaccurate to say that's where we're at.

Yes, wolves often use correct logic because it's more convincing. That doesn't mean that the act of using correct logic is inherently manipulative or wolfy. Wolves have TMI on alignments, not motivations. Me being a wolf doesn't give me extra insight into Esooa's reasoning, so me assuming Esooa's reasoning isn't TMI - it was a wrong assumption anyway.

I don't think manufactured consent is at play here. Basically everyone interested in a towncore has been pretty happy to do so, and in JJJ's case, happy even when they're not in it. They're not like "well I'm not really feeling this but I guess X said we had to towncore, so we're going to towncore". The general sentiment is "fuck yeah I trust these players they're great, I wanna team up with them!" The sentiments are unprompted and natural feeling (at least to my eye), suggesting that mafia isn't setting townies up to support a towncore against their best interests. It's just townies being happy that they've found another townie.

Esooa's treatment of Ellie feels pretty townie.

If you're just doing bog standard stuff why're you cagey about your plans?

whats cagey mean

Cagey means like, wanting to withhold information.

Basically I'm asking "if your plans are all standard 'read interesting posts, find scum' stuff, why are you saying stuff like 'I have plans that I don't want the mafia to know about so I won't reveal them'?"

I'm clumping posts together because there are so many. This is still Day 0 and a bit into Day 1. The town read continues, with more neutral chatter about Esooa and a couple low-severity exchanges of disagreement. As often seems to be the case assessing Alison, this stuff doesn't alarm me but it is not incompatible.

Spoiler: show

lol dude i know i can, you literally showed me how you play mafia. get fucked kid if youre mafia this game youre as good as toast

lock town

probs your only bad take so far

I have a less strong reaction to that post now especially given Esooa's testimony about her meta but I townread it at the time because the spike in hostility was so strong, and it's not the same kind of aggression you see from scum players trying to get people off their back either. It's just pure ego coming from someone who knows they're town and genuinely resents the suspicion placed on them.

i think you're overestimating your perspective of what the gamestate was at the time tbh. I just read through it, at the time the cards were not laid out as clearly as you are insinuating. The towncore level shit actually came after and in some way as a response to that.

tbh gamestates always feel different in the moment vs when you're catching up afterwards

all I can say it's that's the vibe I got and it's why I said what I said

at any rate, Esooa saying that Ellie has scum meta of using hostility to get townread has nullified my old read so it doesn't matter now.

Hey, I'm sorry for not being around. I've been pretty busy today trying to get a working phone line in order so I can perform my quarantine checkins, and I've been struggling with jet lag as well. There's a lot of posts that's been made and it's midnight so I skimmed most of it. Here's the stuff that stands out most to me.

1) Michelle, you stated earlier that you thought LC was town because his wagon grew too big too fast - ie. that scum wanted to pile on him and kill him. LC's wagon has now broken down and the wagon formations are scattered amongst multiple players. Why do you think this is the case? Under your perspective, did the scum trying to push LC give up and look for other targets?

2) JJJ, what is your current POE? (Sorry if you've said and I didn't see)

3) Esooa, how good are you at reading Ellie, historically?

Alison was willing to step back from her town confidence about Ellie by way of Esooa's testimony. That might be a decent look for dissociation in that a mafia Alison would be ascribing some portion of the responsibility for her take to Esooa.

Spoiler: show

alison could be mafia imo

nah

I want to say something meaningful about this exchange, because it might really have meaning. But I don't know it.

Spoiler: show

I think this interaction is in the scum range of Esooa/LC to fake, but am trending towards both of them being town regardless.

@MacDougall I have a problem with you pretending like like me having one read you disagreed with means I'm scum. It felt townie in the moment to me, and nanook thought the same thing as well. I've explained my thought process behind it and walked you through my progression. Please stop pretending that town Alison would "never have a read that bad" because we both know I've had reads you hated when I was town.

Also Alison is outed mafia. She would sheep my case if she was town and this disconnected.

Why would I sheep your case when you're calling me mafia for my initial townread on Ellie, which I do not think is a legitimate reason to read me mafia

This does not have anything to do with my case on LC and Esooa. I don't have to be right about you for that case to be the super hot fire it is. Coupled with the fact that you know I am town you should be sheeping. You're mafia. Sorry bout the rand.

It's relevant because I have reason to suspect you've jumped the shark. You made a case on Esooa, I read it. I'm not obligated to automatically believe everything you say just because it comes from you. I took it into account and decided I want to press the Ellie button. There has been a fast and furious response to me pressing that button, in a way that's pretty damn useful for spew analysis. So how about you back off and let me do that thing instead of reflexively scumreading me for not sheeping you 100% of the time, after you've called me scum for bad reasons already?

Mac if I am scum with Esooa and LC why would we coalesce on Ellie to defend LC when all three of our metas/MOs as scum would involve the two of us ejecting LC out of an airlock and then going deep

Mac if I am scum with Esooa and LC why would we coalesce on Ellie to defend LC when all three of our metas/MOs as scum would involve the two of us ejecting LC out of an airlock and then going deep

You're trying to say there is no particular gamestate in which you would choose to try to save a teammate on day 1 of a 3 wolf game?

No, I'm saying that if I was wolfing with Esooa and LC in this spot, I would team up with Esooa to bury LC extremely hard and then go deep. The counterargument is that LC could be a scum PR, in which case, sure, but it requires you to believe a very specific outlook on exactly who is scum and what their roles are.

lol dude i know i can, you literally showed me how you play mafia. get fucked kid if youre mafia this game youre as good as toast

lock town

@Esooa Alison lock townread Ellie for this. Alison isn't someone who makes statements like this lightly and backs down from them. You have experienced that very Alison. That I now see her voting for Ellie concerns me greatly. Either Alison is bussing her the lock town read was fake. Alison is always mafia here.

wait yeah hang on

@Alison pls explainerino

My read was "this level of hostility, in this particular manner, is not in most people's scumrange, especially not a newbie". Esooa came in and testified that she had in previous games been able to display this level of hostility as scum, which nullifies my read. I haven't had the position that Ellie was lock town since then, and she hasn't even been on my town core lists. This was an on-the-spot reaction, and I don't feel obligated to hold to it after conflicting evidence comes in and the game has developed further.

Alison's progression on Ellie went from lock town to slightly softened, to voting, with no in-between. No effort to engage her. No effort to make a case. Its almost townie cuz of how sloppy it would be for her. But we don't outthink ourselves with Alison.

Get out of your tunnel and step into my shoes for one minute. There are 3 people who are remotely possible to die today, and who I would find a palatable exe: Made, LC, Ellie (I guess Grogu is there, but I don't want a Grogu exe because it's a cop out and doesn't resolve any of the current controversies). I am jet lagged and juggling various IRL responsibilities. I wake up at 3PM, come online, and see that LC is acting in a way that 1) isn't congruent with his previous scum play and 2) lessens his partner equity with Esooa. I read it as townie overall, and switch to Ellie, who has been fairly quiet and is being deathtunnelled by Esooa (who I townread).

In this position, I'm not gonna bother writing a huge case wall on Ellie. I'm just going to vote her because she's the logical choice if I'm not feeling an LC exe and Made didn't have any traction. Context matters and just because I'm headstrong as town doesn't mean that any time I take a softer approach I'm automatically scum. I got mistunnelled for that shit in Hydra G5 and I expect you to know me better than that.

Well here is some saucy stuff, compliments of dear departed @MacDougall. Mac had suggested on Day 1 that Alison and Esooa could be mafia teammates, and this exchange stems from that. Hopefully I get more of it from the Esooa side later. There's a lot of wifom embedded in Alison's comments -- that if she and Esooa were both mafia (and with LC), that they'd have both bussed him to high hell and gone deep for it. That may or may not be true, but it loses its relevance with LC's town flip. Perhaps there was some hope then that LC's town flip would then dismantle Mac's team theory -- including just the Alison/Esooa pairing. That might be a stretch.

When pressed about her Ellie read, Alison continued to attribute much of her change of heart to Esooa's testimony. If they're teammates, that would reflect really milking the link on purpose. It's possible, but I dunno if that's wifom I care to entertain.

Spoiler: show

Esooa is town because she's locked on to Ellie/Made in a way that feels very reminiscent of the way she tunnels slots as town. She's also been pushing the line that LC is town and it's a position I'm starting to come around to.

From the Day 1 reads list, interspersed somewhere among the posts in the prior spoiler. The reasoning for the town read is perhaps thin, but I think it's suitable for Day 1 standards. Not alarming, but not incompatible either.

Spoiler: show

I don't think scum Esooa acts this way about Ellie knowing that Ellie is going to flip town. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and Occam's Razor is that Ellie is scum, Esooa is cleared, and Mac gets to be a little embarassed in DVC.

tone it down like three notches. this isn't helping us solve the game, esp when I think both of you are almost certainly just town.

people like Mac tunneling me out of fear isn't helping solve either so I'm not accepting it

Mac is out of the game. Please don't force us to read long walls of screaming between you and nutella; it won't change anyone's minds, it's anti-town, and it sours things between you and nutella, when I think you're most likely both on the same team.

cool, really enjoy playing a game where I get based on if my reads are anything but 100% correct while u get to just sound towny day 0 and get lock cleared by everyone and don't have to care at all about if you have a single incorrect reads with players you barely even know they're all gonna apply some kinda insane meta where my reads are always correct or I get hard pushed for entire day phases at a time

I'm not checking this thread for the next 24 hours wtv

Ellie+made+1

+1 in koba/grogu/DOOM/spf/koba (maybe forgetting one)

most likely doom

nutella has agreed you're town regardless of ellie's flip, so it's fine. I agree with this solve. let's just drop the argument and barrel roll a wolf.

Also if we sweep the scum from here and Esooa and nutella spent pages screaming at each other over whether or not Esooa should be treated as 95% or 100% town I'm going to laugh

Also if we sweep the scum from here and Esooa and nutella spent pages screaming at each other over whether or not Esooa should be treated as 95% or 100% town I'm going to laugh

Alison, when people are saying they're literally gonna auto lynch me and it's believable cause of how they treat me, if I get a read wrong

it literally feels like shit to solve the game

me being right on my reads literally determines if 4 people are gonna scum read me and literally never let go of it and guess what it fucking sucks

nutella has agreed that you look townie off this even if Ellie is town, and so does SPF. I'm on record as saying I don't think it makes sense for scum you to suicide bomb like this and you're townie on play in general. You're not going to get auto-exed if Ellie flips green, and you've gotten what you wanted, so let go of this and just play properly and sweep up the game.

Towncore: Esooa/nutella/tutuu/koba/nanook

Knocking on the towncore door: DOOM

High POE: Michelle, SPF

Low POE: Grogu, Made, Ellie

Something like this is where I'm at atm. I think there's a decent chance the team is exactly [Grogu/Made/Ellie], since the interactions make sense to me if it's exactly that.

I'd be tempted to agree with your point about Michelle if she wasn't putting effort into scum reading literally

myself, Nutella, spf

which uh, yeah lol

Yeah, but what's her plan here as scum? Like she's putting in a lot of effort while under imminent threat of death, suggesting that if he's scum she's trying to dig herself out of a hole. Having her scumreads be Esooa/nutella/SPF don't seem conducive to that plan. I'm confused what her goal is if she's scum, because she's not going to save herself if that's her solve. I'm reminded of Hydra G6, where I was hydra'ing with Fatmo and we managed to get there on Bluestar (a very heavily suspected slot) being town because we determined that their play made absolutely no sense if they were scum and gave them no path to victory.

Towncore: Esooa/nutella/tutuu/koba/nanook

Knocking on the towncore door: DOOM

High POE: Michelle, SPF

Low POE: Grogu, Made, Ellie

Something like this is where I'm at atm. I think there's a decent chance the team is exactly [Grogu/Made/Ellie], since the interactions make sense to me if it's exactly that.

how likely do you think it is Ellie and mades posts were distancing?

Also, your apprehension on Michelle makes me want to consider just going Made today. It seems extremely hard to make a team that leaves him out with how things currently are

I'd also like to ask why nanook is still in your towncore? Would be be lower if Michelle flipped scum?

Are you completely confident in tutuu being town? The question I asked earlier would heavily hinge on thinking the PoE is generally very accurate

I don't see Ellie/Made interactions as clearing them from being partners. Made has an extremely strong townread on Ellie for virtually no reason; Ellie thinks Made is lock scum and is very loud about it, and quotes all his posts with comments like "LOOK HOW SCUM MADE IS". Neither of these stances feel particularly out of the ordinary from scum that don't want to spew each other; I'm particularly concerned by the specific talking point Ellie has, which is "Made is scum because he's trying to make me look scum with him when he goes down" - I think that could easily be Ellie projecting her worries about being spewed red off Made's scumflip, and trying to pre-emptively excuse herself from it.

I'd also like to ask why nanook is still in your towncore? Would be be lower if Michelle flipped scum?

Are you completely confident in tutuu being town? The question I asked earlier would heavily hinge on thinking the PoE is generally very accurate

Re: nanook and tutuu - I have seen a tell from nanook that makes me pretty damn confident he's town, which I'm hesitant to fully explain right now. Rain check on this, and I promise I'll explain in later days. For now I don't have any worries about him.

As for tutuu, yes, I'm confident. She's just towntold way too much, and I think SPF/nutella etc. have both commented on this as well. Not re-evaluating her until FX.

About eod gamestate is hard for me to explain my intuition, i had with Ted a long convo about this in one of the last DVC.
You tried to calm down Nut and Esooa iirc, did i remember this wrong? This is a towny move.

You don't think trying to calm down nutella and Esooa is within my scum range? Seriously?

Here's a whole pile of loosely related Day 2 stuff. Much of it is direct dialogue between the two which I think is a bit more easily interpreted. Comments:

- I get a vibe here that Alison is explaining her mindset to someone that doesn't already know it, which would be a good thing for dissociation.

- On the other hand, Esooa's tone is rather docile in a way that I'm not sure reflects her typical exchanges with others (see orange highlight). It's not all like that, so I won't make a big stink -- but I noticed a bit of it.

- I like Alison trying to calm the combat between nutella and Esooa at least a little. I probably let my teammate get into that fight and ruin the thread.

Spoiler: show

grogu posts rn feel towny tbh

I agree.

If Esooa is scum, why would she get "cold feet" about the LC (town) exe and put her neck on the chopping block to push Ellie? Why not just sit back and munch on popcorn as LC dies?

Mac's theory was that she was scum with LC. If Mac was so influential on the gamestate, then LC would have been exed and Esooa just has to shrug her shoulders and go "see? Mac's theory was wrong". Again, no reason to run up Ellie there and potentially make herself look bad.

Also, why would all the wolves pile on you simultaneously like that, potentially exposing themselves/forming links between each other later on that could spew them red, just to get you exed when you were already in the POE and not widely trusted anyway?

For the reasoning you are exposing here.
For being illogical from villagery perspective.
All of them are perfectly capable to do this

No clue about Esooa and SPF but this isn't in nutella's wolf range. She doesn't mind game that deep when she's scum. Can you show me a game that makes you think this behavior is in nutella's scum range?

Here are a few more from Day 2. The first post about Grogu is whatever. The rest feature Alison defending Esooa based upon her Day 1 voting behavior. Typically, I think the reasoning is logical and also team-compatible.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: staybestfriend] aubergine

why?

@Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently

Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

@Alison is there a reason you don't want to explain your nanook read

Right now, yes.

my reads rn

town

Alison, DaughterOfOmega, JaggedJimmyJay, nutella

the rest

DkKoba
EllieDelight
Grogu
Made
Michelle
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
staypositivefriend
tutuu

is "the rest" ordered? because if so I'm sort of confused

I woke up at 3am and can't get back to sleep. Skimmed the thread briefly.

I am excited to see what Michelle does with this brand new poll.

Morning, i saw the poll and i wanted to read the thread to understand what exactly happened.

I have in mind that Ellie was displeased with my lynch, iirc asking why am I close to hammer (i will check her Iso for the quote because memory is tricky) but she is strongly advocating me to be in the Poe.
The same, Grogu except the fact he is funny and with cute avatar, has a frozen read on me that he cannot explain.
If, like you said, Nutella is town, SPF is town and Esooa is town, in other words if i am so idiot that i al 100% wrong, then the first people with unexplained and odd stanced are Ellie and Grogu.
Though, i thought Ellie is villager because of the fast growing wagon on her, but the wagon contains too many town reads so the logic it's not aplicabile.
Town LC was in hammer range, 2 counter wagons emerged, on Ellie and Made.
Which one of them had an early day 1 wagon who dissipated?
I have to check.

After breakfast, sorry i have to live too
Brb

This post is more in line with what I expect to see from town Michelle, wrt fluidity of reads and changing her view when those views are questioned. She's moving past the "nutella/Esooa/SPF are lockscum" line and is fleshing out thoughts about other players (eg. noting Ellie not wanting her to die but hard POEing her).

This + the long post about meta which rang as genuine - Esooa's argument about her being anxious that we solve the game after her greenflip being a towntell work to make me feel better about Michelle.

Before I head back, stray thought that passed thorugh my mind.

No matter how deep a wolf is, their position isn't safe forever. I've been the "solo deepwolf" in enough games to know that when the LHF gets cleared and everyone else remaining is townie, people will realize a deepwolf exists (I sometimes call this "proving the deepwolf"). At that point you need something else going for you than just "good tone" or "townie vibes", since otherwise you'll get POE'd out by people who are green checked or who have multiple pelts to their name.

This suggests that the current towncore poses a threat to the status of the deepwolf. Unless they're buried really really deep in it (like nutella or Esooa or tutuu deep, which I don't think is the case), they need to crack it open at some point. Which means that the deepwolf is actually probably someone who's been targeting the more trusted members to slowly erode their position.

This thought came to me because I was thinking about possible SPF scum worlds and what her path to victory is, and I was feeling like SPF has no chance to win if her teammates are Ellie/Made and her strategy is to just throw me + JJJ under the bus, because at some points the easy exes run out and if the really trusted towncore are still as entrenched as they are right now by then, she'll just be eliminated by default. Nightkills are a thing, of course, but the mafia only have one a night and new people will enter the deep towncore as the gamestate goes on and flips start to clear people.

This is the rest of the Day 2 stuff. Esooa requesting a reads list and then for Alison to [maybe] expand on her Nanook read is a nice little moment that could dissociate them. The rest of it is pretty light.

Spoiler: show

I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

@Made see reads list above. Tiers are ordered, so Esooa is townier than Dkkoba, nook is townier than JJJ, etc.

I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

so you think nutella is playing scum even though she's far out of her scum range?

There's two worlds: "easy" world and "hard" world. Easy world is if the team is something like DOOM/Grogu, and then nook or JJJ. I'm not sure that team fits with the gamestate we had D2 unless town self destructed really hard - none of them have really been pushing their views/reads.

"Hard" world means that one of [tutuu/nutella/Esooa/Dkkoba] is scum. I've never played with scum Esooa or Dkkoba, but I feel like tutuu/nutella have been out of their scum range this game. Problem is that those two are the ones who've been positioning themselves to push agendas like deepwolves, while Esooa/Dkkoba have just seen the claims and then done nothing all day (Esooa just townread nanook and peaced out, Dkkoba has been afk).

Evidence points to the world being hard. If the world is hard, either deepwolf or deepwolves are acting in ways that make no sense, or deepwolf or deepwolves are out of their scum range and have been falsely cleared. I have to take the possibility into account.

Here's the Day 3 stuff. Esooa doesn't appear to be an immediate reassessment priority for Alison. Take that as you will. It may be meaningful that DK and Esooa are the ones that held up as "old town core" and nutella dropped.

This is only half the analysis. Too many damned posts. I think I might be approaching the maximum post length though, so I'm just gonna post this part now and finish Esooa's half separately.

[DkKoba]

why have both doom and grogu pretended like spf isnt clear here

[DaughterOfOmega]

a side benefit of being clear is that i'm not obligated to explain my reads in-depth like i typically am, so i am simply going to post Vibe Reports as my reads fluctuate. i will do my best to write up a legacy wallpost before the day ends outlining my thought process and the best path forward for a victory

nanook > DOOM > nutella > tutuu esooa > koba > grogu > jagged > alison

as things stand, i would need to see a solid case on nanook/tutuu to get to a world where they're mafia today. i am reconsidering nutella and have felt uneasy about her at several points today, but i still perceive her to be outside of her "scumrange", based on my relatively limited perception of her. the strongest argument for her being mafia is simply that she has rode along the consensus POE and then continued to pursue the same angles today (with an immediate push on me/made), but she does Feel authentic to me.

the read on DOOM may shift as i sort things out, but i'm finding a doom!scum world increasingly less likely as the day goes on

out of the consensus "POE", grogu is the one with the most scum equity, in the sense that he has been an easy target for the mafia to pounce on for this entire game but he has largely been shielded by the rest of the players

i am fairly certain that alison/jagged has at least one, but i have yet to see a compelling reason for why they can't be a team

i don't think that i'm 3/3 yet

This is a fairly concerning post with how Koba and Alison have posted about SPF but I will deal with that when those two die

can you explain this more? what concerns you?

During my deep dive with you, Koba gave more of a town read on you than anyone else. Koba also interacted with you in awkward ways, constantly appealing to you. Which may have been more of a pocket attempt and not partnery idk