Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
- falcon45ca
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
[VOTE:
santygrass] aubergine
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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- Inawordyes
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Okay, so where is the confidence increase coming from? I think the part that’s missing and what is tripping me up here. Because like,santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:41 amSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:39 amYou didn't make a case on Falcon but Santy vibed with that case. What case were they so happy about you making? Where is it? You said yourself that your read on Falcon had nothing to do with NK analysis, but the posts they quoted did not include any other content about Falcon.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:38 am Santy is a strong townread/townsidingnpcread. No agenda detected. Seems to actually gad about hunting. It's nice that Santy townreads me and scumreads my scumread but my read on Santy is less about that and more about process. Only the NK analysis process seems a little questionable.
Seanzie are you a wolf or like you cant read at all?
I already said that the post I quoted was why i TOWNREAD Jack, not what convinced me on the case.
I voted Falcon because previous PoE + Jack's recent posts and confidence on falcon being more likely a hit
Falcon was in your PoE already, okay I get that
You’re vibing with Jack’s read and you give bigger weight to Jack’s read being correct because you vibe with his other reads and think he’s town, okay I get that
But where does the confidence aspect come in? It feels like the confidence didn’t have a basis and so coming in with so much confidence about this read specifically doesn’t feel like it’s coming from the PoE or Jack’s read, and it feels to me like it’s manufactured confidence, and that’s throwing out tonal alarm bells
I’m not actively trying to fight you, I’m trying to understand because it doesn’t add up and that’s generally something that is synonymous with mafia (and I’m also terrible at figuring out what exactly pings me tonally and equally as terrible at explaining it). But there’s also mixed signals because my gut is telling me something is off, but it’s not necessarily telling me that something is scummy, which means that I have literally no idea how to read you or this situation rn
- santygrass
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
ThisInawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:49 amFrom the context I gathered from his posts before this, I’m pretty sure he’s saying that from his PoV Jack doesn’t have a valid reason to vote for Falcon, so you hopping on the wagon is scummy for you because you’re directly fanning the flames of a wagon with little basis by being opportunistic in supporting it. But if you’re not mafia, then me questioning you over that vote looks like me opportunistically harping on it to push into yousantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:30 amHow are my and INAWY alignments connected at all? Just wowee reads all along tbh
I don’t exactly agree but I see the mindset
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I believe he believes his thoughts on Falcon.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:51 amAh, this makes slightly more sense then what I was thinkingSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 amI am starting to come to the conclusion that Jack is town, and so I am asking myself who are the wolves pushing this tvt? Flame fanning is EVER SO TEMPTING for wolves. You look like a flame fanner, but there is a small possibility that IAWY wanted to capitalize on you looking like a flame fanner and started pushing you here (this second read is significantly weaker than the first).santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:30 amHow are my and INAWY alignments connected at all? Just wowee reads all along tbh
What is making you come around to V!Jack?
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- falcon45ca
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
SameSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:01 pmI believe he believes his thoughts on Falcon.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:51 amAh, this makes slightly more sense then what I was thinkingSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 amI am starting to come to the conclusion that Jack is town, and so I am asking myself who are the wolves pushing this tvt? Flame fanning is EVER SO TEMPTING for wolves. You look like a flame fanner, but there is a small possibility that IAWY wanted to capitalize on you looking like a flame fanner and started pushing you here (this second read is significantly weaker than the first).santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:30 amHow are my and INAWY alignments connected at all? Just wowee reads all along tbh
What is making you come around to V!Jack?
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
With like an extra scoop of "Santy aligning with Jack will bolster Jack's confidence, possibly pushing them towards Falcon harder and possibly towards reading me as wolf simply due to opposing positioning on Falcon.Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pmThisInawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:49 amFrom the context I gathered from his posts before this, I’m pretty sure he’s saying that from his PoV Jack doesn’t have a valid reason to vote for Falcon, so you hopping on the wagon is scummy for you because you’re directly fanning the flames of a wagon with little basis by being opportunistic in supporting it. But if you’re not mafia, then me questioning you over that vote looks like me opportunistically harping on it to push into yousantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:30 amHow are my and INAWY alignments connected at all? Just wowee reads all along tbh
I don’t exactly agree but I see the mindset
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Broooooooo, that’s literally your own words in the post I replied to. You’re the one who is saying that having confidence in Falcon being more likely a hit is part of your reason for placing the vote. How do you not understand?santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
My brain immediately went to “this is a TMI slip and Santy/Falcon is W/W”santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
I need to take a break from the thread
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Again I am going tl make a comparison that is not 'equal to the case' but more like an exaggeration to be more clear.
Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.
Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.
That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)
Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff
Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.
Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.
That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)
Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff
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- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I do not know what Porscha will flip. So why would I not say if? This makes no sense lol.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:53 amI would expect more aNeon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:48 amBecause me saying I'm gonna laugh if every player on the wagon is townsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:36 amNo, it's me asking you if your read is changing or has a waver because of what that post reflects. So can you talk to me about your current read ln Porscha regardless?Neon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:34 amI think you think you've found an aha moment that doesn't exist.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:23 am And I'm asking because that post doesnt reflect that read lol
Like wtf Neon, why you refuse to cooperate I am not going to find you like that wowee
Doesn't mean I'm no longer town reading Porscha anymore santy.
It means I think my worldview is correct but everyone keeps saying the wagon was scum driven. And i don't see how you think it's anything else. Like I don't see how you think a lot of things your saying today.
> It will be funny when the whole Ran wagon flips town
If you were really holding the Porscha townread.
The If conditional made me question the read you had on Porscha at the moment.
What other things you think 'Im not believing' ?
I think you believe everything you say. I said I don't understand how you believe them. And i don't lol.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
UwUsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:57 amI went and reread and you're right I think I misingerpreted your words so my bad tbhNeon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:51 amI don't recall saying that. I do recall saying stuff about how I wasn't here for EoD and it sticks that I wasn't cause I couldn't find lily.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:40 am Also @Neon can you talk about what you didnt liked about my Lily push?
Saying that *after* Lily was yeeted and not hint at it in any way before felt super disingenous to me fwiw
I may have said that and forgotten now *shrugs*
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Because a townread sussing that slot increases the confidence I have of them being a hit?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:03 pmBroooooooo, that’s literally your own words in the post I replied to. You’re the one who is saying that having confidence in Falcon being more likely a hit is part of your reason for placing the vote. How do you not understand?santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
If the case was done by someone I dont trust to be town it would be different bcuz scum agenda could be involved
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Yeh I can see that but idk how to express it but /tonally/ I would expect that line I said from a strong townread on someone, hence why I asked.Neon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pmI do not know what Porscha will flip. So why would I not say if? This makes no sense lol.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:53 amI would expect more aNeon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:48 amBecause me saying I'm gonna laugh if every player on the wagon is townsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:36 amNo, it's me asking you if your read is changing or has a waver because of what that post reflects. So can you talk to me about your current read ln Porscha regardless?Neon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:34 amI think you think you've found an aha moment that doesn't exist.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:23 am And I'm asking because that post doesnt reflect that read lol
Like wtf Neon, why you refuse to cooperate I am not going to find you like that wowee
Doesn't mean I'm no longer town reading Porscha anymore santy.
It means I think my worldview is correct but everyone keeps saying the wagon was scum driven. And i don't see how you think it's anything else. Like I don't see how you think a lot of things your saying today.
> It will be funny when the whole Ran wagon flips town
If you were really holding the Porscha townread.
The If conditional made me question the read you had on Porscha at the moment.
What other things you think 'Im not believing' ?
I think you believe everything you say. I said I don't understand how you believe them. And i don't lol.
That's also because I usually go with high confidence in my reads so I wouldn't had putted that if or would had expressed it different for sure, but that could be a more 'me' thing , and the reason I think I asked too
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
How a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I mean. I just typed what I thought. And I thought it because I think it is more likely than not.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:09 pmYeh I can see that but idk how to express it but /tonally/ I would expect that line I said from a strong townread on someone, hence why I asked.Neon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pmI do not know what Porscha will flip. So why would I not say if? This makes no sense lol.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:53 amI would expect more aNeon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:48 amBecause me saying I'm gonna laugh if every player on the wagon is townsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:36 amNo, it's me asking you if your read is changing or has a waver because of what that post reflects. So can you talk to me about your current read ln Porscha regardless?Neon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:34 amI think you think you've found an aha moment that doesn't exist.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:23 am And I'm asking because that post doesnt reflect that read lol
Like wtf Neon, why you refuse to cooperate I am not going to find you like that wowee
Doesn't mean I'm no longer town reading Porscha anymore santy.
It means I think my worldview is correct but everyone keeps saying the wagon was scum driven. And i don't see how you think it's anything else. Like I don't see how you think a lot of things your saying today.
> It will be funny when the whole Ran wagon flips town
If you were really holding the Porscha townread.
The If conditional made me question the read you had on Porscha at the moment.
What other things you think 'Im not believing' ?
I think you believe everything you say. I said I don't understand how you believe them. And i don't lol.
That's also because I usually go with high confidence in my reads so I wouldn't had putted that if or would had expressed it different for sure, but that could be a more 'me' thing , and the reason I think I asked too
I think, however, if I said what you think I should've said I'd be accused of TMI and pushed anyways.
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- santygrass
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
And I wasnt a CFD , I was lead wagon for quite a while that day , so the wagonomics for a mafia team that doesn't know how many players could be on each wagon dont add up at all
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Here was the VC with an hour left in the day:santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
If a single member of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then unless the other 3 are going to block-vote, that gives wolves only saving power of 2 - your selfpres plus a wolf saving buddy.tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm Not Voting (7): MacDougall (33), Inawordyes (20), JaggedJimmyJay (35), risiinq- (45), sabie12 (2), Fext (5), Porscha (73)
chelsea (2): Golden (47), ~Prince J~ (18)
santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
marmot (2): Marmot (88), sprityo (24)
michelle (4): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (21), hollowkatt (81), Chelsea (18), TonyStarkPrime (31)
scotty (4): Lilypetal (39), EnderWiggin (165), RondoDimBuckle (163), tutuu (83)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)
drwilgy (1): SilverKeith (66)
lily (1): falcon45ca (22)
guillotina (1): katze (131)
nutella (1): Michelle (116)
master radishes (1): Sloonei (33)
c4e5g3d5 (1): c4e5g3d5 (85)
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto (30)
sloonei (3): santygrass (83), Scotty (52), Ricochet (10)
manny (1): Manny (223)
golden (1): lucy (19)
guillotine (1): Seanzie (10)
test (1): Lumi (78)
unvote (2): WindwardAway (105), arogame123 (61)
arogame (1): Sabiplz (243)
golden the coward (1): G-Man (23)
dr. wilgy (1): ilario (43)
enderwiggin (1): Neon (88)
That means that HK or Michelle are the only ones who could have been viable saves for you. HK is the natural choice at this point, so as long as one other person is a wolf on HK, that makes sense.
if two members of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then your case is even weaker.
Even if all four wolves are around for EoD, unless they were block-voting together, they can't just magically stop your wagon from tieing.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pmMy brain immediately went to “this is a TMI slip and Santy/Falcon is W/W”santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
I need to take a break from the thread
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
You being a lead wagon all day suggests that wolves would not block-vote together to save you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:12 pmsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
And I wasnt a CFD , I was lead wagon for quite a while that day , so the wagonomics for a mafia team that doesn't know how many players could be on each wagon dont add up at all
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I realize you say that it’s an exaggeration, but comparing Jack’s reads to a cop check is way too much confidence on a read that you should not have that much confidence about. It’s like you’re absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where you know Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that you can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that you can know that Falcon is mafia is if you are also mafiasantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pm Again I am going tl make a comparison that is not 'equal to the case' but more like an exaggeration to be more clear.
Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.
Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.
That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)
Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff
The confidence you have in this read being correct is way too high. So either you’re both mafis together, or you’re manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes you look extremely scummy
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:06 pmBecause a townread sussing that slot increases the confidence I have of them being a hit?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:03 pmBroooooooo, that’s literally your own words in the post I replied to. You’re the one who is saying that having confidence in Falcon being more likely a hit is part of your reason for placing the vote. How do you not understand?santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
If the case was done by someone I dont trust to be town it would be different bcuz scum agenda could be involved
Like, am I the only one seeing this? Am I going crazy?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I'm not picking up what you're putting down.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:24 pmAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:06 pmBecause a townread sussing that slot increases the confidence I have of them being a hit?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:03 pmBroooooooo, that’s literally your own words in the post I replied to. You’re the one who is saying that having confidence in Falcon being more likely a hit is part of your reason for placing the vote. How do you not understand?santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
If the case was done by someone I dont trust to be town it would be different bcuz scum agenda could be involved
Like, am I the only one seeing this? Am I going crazy?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
I think your point fundamentally has zero sense at all and after this game ends I hope you never use it again because is dumb.
I am not saying that I 'know' like how are you remarking, I said it made me feel better / have more confidence on falcon being a hit, just by the fact that a townread expressed confidence on them being scum and Me vibing with that read. There isnt much science about it and I just feel dumb keeping this argument at this point tbh. Like, its basic stuff still
I am not saying that I 'know' like how are you remarking, I said it made me feel better / have more confidence on falcon being a hit, just by the fact that a townread expressed confidence on them being scum and Me vibing with that read. There isnt much science about it and I just feel dumb keeping this argument at this point tbh. Like, its basic stuff still
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:28 pmI'm not picking up what you're putting down.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:24 pmAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:06 pmBecause a townread sussing that slot increases the confidence I have of them being a hit?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:03 pmBroooooooo, that’s literally your own words in the post I replied to. You’re the one who is saying that having confidence in Falcon being more likely a hit is part of your reason for placing the vote. How do you not understand?santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
If the case was done by someone I dont trust to be town it would be different bcuz scum agenda could be involved
Like, am I the only one seeing this? Am I going crazy?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Now think again consider the NPCs here. A 2 player or 3 player block ALWAYS would save someone here. So If I am a wolf, a partner would be voting with me kinda always otherwise it would be just a dumb play. And because scum doesnt know too who is a player and their vote counts and who doesnt a tie is simply not viable to pull / risk being scum lolSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:17 pmHere was the VC with an hour left in the day:santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
If a single member of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then unless the other 3 are going to block-vote, that gives wolves only saving power of 2 - your selfpres plus a wolf saving buddy.tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm Not Voting (7): MacDougall (33), Inawordyes (20), JaggedJimmyJay (35), risiinq- (45), sabie12 (2), Fext (5), Porscha (73)
chelsea (2): Golden (47), ~Prince J~ (18)
santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
marmot (2): Marmot (88), sprityo (24)
michelle (4): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (21), hollowkatt (81), Chelsea (18), TonyStarkPrime (31)
scotty (4): Lilypetal (39), EnderWiggin (165), RondoDimBuckle (163), tutuu (83)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)
drwilgy (1): SilverKeith (66)
lily (1): falcon45ca (22)
guillotina (1): katze (131)
nutella (1): Michelle (116)
master radishes (1): Sloonei (33)
c4e5g3d5 (1): c4e5g3d5 (85)
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto (30)
sloonei (3): santygrass (83), Scotty (52), Ricochet (10)
manny (1): Manny (223)
golden (1): lucy (19)
guillotine (1): Seanzie (10)
test (1): Lumi (78)
unvote (2): WindwardAway (105), arogame123 (61)
arogame (1): Sabiplz (243)
golden the coward (1): G-Man (23)
dr. wilgy (1): ilario (43)
enderwiggin (1): Neon (88)
That means that HK or Michelle are the only ones who could have been viable saves for you. HK is the natural choice at this point, so as long as one other person is a wolf on HK, that makes sense.
if two members of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then your case is even weaker.
Even if all four wolves are around for EoD, unless they were block-voting together, they can't just magically stop your wagon from tieing.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:31 pm I think your point fundamentally has zero sense at all and after this game ends I hope you never use it again because is dumb.
I am not saying that I 'know' like how are you remarking, I said it made me feel better / have more confidence on falcon being a hit, just by the fact that a townread expressed confidence on them being scum and Me vibing with that read. There isnt much science about it and I just feel dumb keeping this argument at this point tbh. Like, its basic stuff still
You know what, fine, I give up, I can’t explain myself and articulate this read properly
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
"A 2 player block ALWAYS would save someone here" is categorically false. A 3-player block might, but that requires 3 people to all be around for EoD and all to vote together on a wagon that has been a lead wagon all day. Hell, I'd say if you flip wolf, there's probably a wolf on you at that EoD, hedging their bets that the towncred they'd get from that will be worth more than keeping alive someone who is majorly suspected in thread.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:35 pmNow think again consider the NPCs here. A 2 player or 3 player block ALWAYS would save someone here. So If I am a wolf, a partner would be voting with me kinda always otherwise it would be just a dumb play. And because scum doesnt know too who is a player and their vote counts and who doesnt a tie is simply not viable to pull / risk being scum lolSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:17 pmHere was the VC with an hour left in the day:santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
If a single member of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then unless the other 3 are going to block-vote, that gives wolves only saving power of 2 - your selfpres plus a wolf saving buddy.tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm Not Voting (7): MacDougall (33), Inawordyes (20), JaggedJimmyJay (35), risiinq- (45), sabie12 (2), Fext (5), Porscha (73)
chelsea (2): Golden (47), ~Prince J~ (18)
santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
marmot (2): Marmot (88), sprityo (24)
michelle (4): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (21), hollowkatt (81), Chelsea (18), TonyStarkPrime (31)
scotty (4): Lilypetal (39), EnderWiggin (165), RondoDimBuckle (163), tutuu (83)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)
drwilgy (1): SilverKeith (66)
lily (1): falcon45ca (22)
guillotina (1): katze (131)
nutella (1): Michelle (116)
master radishes (1): Sloonei (33)
c4e5g3d5 (1): c4e5g3d5 (85)
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto (30)
sloonei (3): santygrass (83), Scotty (52), Ricochet (10)
manny (1): Manny (223)
golden (1): lucy (19)
guillotine (1): Seanzie (10)
test (1): Lumi (78)
unvote (2): WindwardAway (105), arogame123 (61)
arogame (1): Sabiplz (243)
golden the coward (1): G-Man (23)
dr. wilgy (1): ilario (43)
enderwiggin (1): Neon (88)
That means that HK or Michelle are the only ones who could have been viable saves for you. HK is the natural choice at this point, so as long as one other person is a wolf on HK, that makes sense.
if two members of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then your case is even weaker.
Even if all four wolves are around for EoD, unless they were block-voting together, they can't just magically stop your wagon from tieing.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
That sounds like meInawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:41 pmsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:31 pm I think your point fundamentally has zero sense at all and after this game ends I hope you never use it again because is dumb.
I am not saying that I 'know' like how are you remarking, I said it made me feel better / have more confidence on falcon being a hit, just by the fact that a townread expressed confidence on them being scum and Me vibing with that read. There isnt much science about it and I just feel dumb keeping this argument at this point tbh. Like, its basic stuff still
You know what, fine, I give up, I can’t explain myself and articulate this read properly
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
What if I'm reeeeeeeeeally good at mafia, though?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:21 pmI realize you say that it’s an exaggeration, but comparing Jack’s reads to a cop check is way too much confidence on a read that you should not have that much confidence about. It’s like you’re absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where you know Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that you can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that you can know that Falcon is mafia is if you are also mafiasantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pm Again I am going tl make a comparison that is not 'equal to the case' but more like an exaggeration to be more clear.
Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.
Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.
That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)
Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff
The confidence you have in this read being correct is way too high. So either you’re both mafis together, or you’re manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes you look extremely scummy
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:47 pmWhat if I'm reeeeeeeeeally good at mafia, though?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:21 pmI realize you say that it’s an exaggeration, but comparing Jack’s reads to a cop check is way too much confidence on a read that you should not have that much confidence about. It’s like you’re absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where you know Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that you can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that you can know that Falcon is mafia is if you are also mafiasantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pm Again I am going tl make a comparison that is not 'equal to the case' but more like an exaggeration to be more clear.
Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.
Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.
That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)
Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff
The confidence you have in this read being correct is way too high. So either you’re both mafis together, or you’re manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes you look extremely scummy
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Okay, reset, topic-change, pivot-shift
What was the turning point yesterday when Lily overtook Neon as the main wagon?
What was the turning point yesterday when Lily overtook Neon as the main wagon?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Well obviously it's my overwhelming towny energy
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Obviously
Neon and Lily were by-far the biggest thread-consensus concerns yesterday. What was the threadstate and the state of the wagons when the momentum shifted to primarily pushing Lily?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
sup im here. you guys post a lot. im vibing with santy's vibing with jack's falcon read and im finding iawy's questioning pretty useless lol. im in favor of flipping falcon
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
That was aimed at IAWY ie "somebody else check that, plz"
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
they were both the main wagons from sod, i dont remember if majority went back and forth much but both were in contention for much of the day i thinkInawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:54 pm Okay, reset, topic-change, pivot-shift
What was the turning point yesterday when Lily overtook Neon as the main wagon?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
i mean there was a point when i maybe personally pivoted to focusing more on lily? idk i dont care enough to look for it
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
why does this matter we are killing falcon today
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
ive mindmelded with like almost all of santy's posts in the last few pages and iawy's position is utterly baffling to me lol
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- nutella
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
tbc i still think iawy is town i just really dont understand how his mind works
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- nutella
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
idk neon could still be a wolf too and i may regret softening on her but idk feel like falcon is the best chance we have today
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- nutella
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
was there some reason to think falcon/neon not w/w i think i saw someone say that
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- falcon45ca
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
In a world where falcon is town (and he is, trust me), who are the wolves pushing his wagon?
Cuz I don't know if I've ever been mislynched by a pure wagon. Ever
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
Spoiler: show