The Syndicate

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:52 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:32 pm

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:19 pm

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:53 pm @Ranmilia pyxxy is asking whether you think leetic could be a role cop with X amount of shots. He's saying that leetic may be stalling with IIOA to see what others do.

it's possible I guess? That's an oddly specific callout, if they're mafia they could be anything. even a boat. i guess it is slightly likely because of the "correct" track results, but the way they did their "reaction test" d3 left the door open and... let everyone else correct them if the callout was incorrect. which, admittedly is kinda sus.

not thrilled with leetic's posting today either. being hyperfocused on pairings and pushing stuff like "this person fits the most pairings so they are most likely wolf" is quite wolfy aaaaaand a vote on abi huh

that ain't it chief.

here's the deal. at least one of leetic and ted's claims are bogus. at least one of ted's and alexy's claims are bogus. ALL of these people are sketching me out. alexy, oddly enough, the least, i do believe the pyxxy contact is genuine from what they're saying.

abi is the one (active) player i'm confident here is not a wolf atp, and since i arrived at that conclusion this morning, suddenly feels like a ton of people popped out of the woodwork to say "no no abi is sus let's go abi here!" (by a ton i mean like three but context here. yknow.) (also i don't think psv and cape are likely wolves but they're Not Appearing In This Day so, mwaf)

Why isn't Abby a wolf? They have the least towny things going for them right now

Friend, did you read my posts from this morning where i went over this? Have you looked at TSP's iso? Abigail and TSP are not partnered, unless they pursued a masterpiece theatre plan in which TSP attempts to draw attention to her and hard bus her and somehow fails, while she approaches me in a way I have not seen a wolf dare to do in over a decade and then does nothing with it but appear uninformed.

She is unpaired with TSP, which is the most important pairing at all, and behaviourally town which is the most important factor. We're looking for wolves here, that is, people who are on a team with TSP and have knowledge of who is and is not mafia. You're repeating the "least things going for her" line like you're trying to speak it into existence as a truism- why? What exactly are you considering when you say that?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:57 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

Because if I take Ranmilia's statements at face value, this is what I'm left with. Bit why would they kill Gira when that would be the kill that puts the most attention on the pairing's place on the D4 VC?

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

I'm not thinking in any of those terms. I'm looking for who is the most behaviorally likely individual to be a wolf that we should vote out today. I feel like we're approaching the game with very different fundamental assumptions. Or you're a wolf, but Jack keeps telling me this is how you play as town.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

I'm not thinking in any of those terms. I'm looking for who is the most behaviorally likely individual to be a wolf that we should vote out today. I feel like we're approaching the game with very different fundamental assumptions. Or you're a wolf, but Jack keeps telling me this is how you play as town.

Do you or do you not think our thread started with three wolves?

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:18 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

I'm not thinking in any of those terms. I'm looking for who is the most behaviorally likely individual to be a wolf that we should vote out today. I feel like we're approaching the game with very different fundamental assumptions. Or you're a wolf, but Jack keeps telling me this is how you play as town.

Do you or do you not think our thread started with three wolves?

I do not know and I make no assumptions about it at this point. I think two is possible, I think Bereft wolf is possible, I think one or more lone wolves who don't know the main team are possible. I think unclaimed town PRs are possible. I think imbalanced sides are possible. I think mirrored roles are possible - I know I just said one in ted/alexy but that's not based solely on them having similar claims and I'm not 1000% married to it, just seems very likely when I consider all the factors including behavior and reads.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:25 pm isn't eod in 2h35?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:57 pm So, if RDB is paired with tedxtr, ted nearly let RDB die and they killed another RDB voter, bringing attention to RDB's position at the board.

If RDB is paired with Ranmilia, then they both hounded the TSP wagon last minute for no apparent reason. They probably wouldn't have predicted me to make the switch as well, and bringing Dizzy down would have been better for them (although maybe they wanted TSP to make the switch, though he showed up like an hour before EoD and did nothing)

That leaves the only RDB pairing that remotely makes sense as RDB/Abby. Even then, Abby nearly killed RDB by switching to them near EoD4, but then again Abby may have seen the RDB lynch as inevitable and only switched when it became clear it wasn't.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:28 pm the way i see it, we can lunch from our thread, or the other thread

in that sense, alexey / rdb seem to be the options

i'll once again leave my vote on rdb cuz i can't make EoD. if the other thread feels confident in alexey, then vote them out i guess

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:29 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:57 pm So, if RDB is paired with tedxtr, ted nearly let RDB die and they killed another RDB voter, bringing attention to RDB's position at the board.

If RDB is paired with Ranmilia, then they both hounded the TSP wagon last minute for no apparent reason. They probably wouldn't have predicted me to make the switch as well, and bringing Dizzy down would have been better for them (although maybe they wanted TSP to make the switch, though he showed up like an hour before EoD and did nothing)

That leaves the only RDB pairing that remotely makes sense as RDB/Abby. Even then, Abby nearly killed RDB by switching to them near EoD4, but then again Abby may have seen the RDB lynch as inevitable and only switched when it became clear it wasn't.

I'm confused why then you aren't voting RDB if they're the common denominator?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:29 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:28 pm the way i see it, we can lunch from our thread, or the other thread

in that sense, alexey / rdb seem to be the options

i'll once again leave my vote on rdb cuz i can't make EoD. if the other thread feels confident in alexey, then vote them out i guess

Do you think RDB/Ranmilia is a viable pairing?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:30 pm

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:29 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:57 pm So, if RDB is paired with tedxtr, ted nearly let RDB die and they killed another RDB voter, bringing attention to RDB's position at the board.

If RDB is paired with Ranmilia, then they both hounded the TSP wagon last minute for no apparent reason. They probably wouldn't have predicted me to make the switch as well, and bringing Dizzy down would have been better for them (although maybe they wanted TSP to make the switch, though he showed up like an hour before EoD and did nothing)

That leaves the only RDB pairing that remotely makes sense as RDB/Abby. Even then, Abby nearly killed RDB by switching to them near EoD4, but then again Abby may have seen the RDB lynch as inevitable and only switched when it became clear it wasn't.

I'm confused why then you aren't voting RDB if they're the common denominator?

Have you even read my post?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:31 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:29 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:28 pm the way i see it, we can lunch from our thread, or the other thread

in that sense, alexey / rdb seem to be the options

i'll once again leave my vote on rdb cuz i can't make EoD. if the other thread feels confident in alexey, then vote them out i guess

Do you think RDB/Ranmilia is a viable pairing?

i've just had a flash of thought that it's more likely abby / rdb, if rdb is a wolf

but i dunno, i still am considering we just have 1 wolf alive in our thread, lol

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:33 pm Whoever asked earlier, I can confirm the wording on the flipped mafia is the same as it was for TSP

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:22 pm

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:18 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

I'm not thinking in any of those terms. I'm looking for who is the most behaviorally likely individual to be a wolf that we should vote out today. I feel like we're approaching the game with very different fundamental assumptions. Or you're a wolf, but Jack keeps telling me this is how you play as town.

Do you or do you not think our thread started with three wolves?

I do not know and I make no assumptions about it at this point. I think two is possible, I think Bereft wolf is possible, I think one or more lone wolves who don't know the main team are possible. I think unclaimed town PRs are possible. I think imbalanced sides are possible. I think mirrored roles are possible - I know I just said one in ted/alexy but that's not based solely on them having similar claims and I'm not 1000% married to it, just seems very likely when I consider all the factors including behavior and reads.

If Bereft's a wolf, why did they die? Why would a town PR not claim in what is basically MiLo? Why would mirrored roles be possible when there's only "evidence" of one? All of this seems more like an excuse to not have to think about the game as a whole.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:35 pm

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:33 pm Whoever asked earlier, I can confirm the wording on the flipped mafia is the same as it was for TSP

So multiball is unlikely. Still doesn't answer what the potentially game-ending threat is.

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:38 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:35 pm

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:33 pm Whoever asked earlier, I can confirm the wording on the flipped mafia is the same as it was for TSP

So multiball is unlikely. Still doesn't answer what the potentially game-ending threat is.

Maybe some kinda mafia KP boost due to thread merge, I wonder?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:35 pm

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:33 pm Whoever asked earlier, I can confirm the wording on the flipped mafia is the same as it was for TSP

So multiball is unlikely. Still doesn't answer what the potentially game-ending threat is.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:39 pm

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:38 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:35 pm

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:33 pm Whoever asked earlier, I can confirm the wording on the flipped mafia is the same as it was for TSP

So multiball is unlikely. Still doesn't answer what the potentially game-ending threat is.

Maybe some kinda mafia KP boost due to thread merge, I wonder?

then it's not lunchlo today

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:43 pm Hey All, I have barely any time today so I have neither the time nor the inclination to defend myself. This is exactly why I wanted to be locked town read yesterday. After made I am the easy push. Made and I town read each other but you guys forced us to cross.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:42 pm if it's 5-4 today, in your thread, who would alexey be paired with?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:42 pm if it's 5-4 today, in your thread, who would alexey be paired with?

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:46 pm Has RDB claimed anything?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 12:41 am

Cape90 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 12:41 am

Alexy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:37 pm

Cape90 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:23 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 27, 2023 7:48 pm

Alexy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 27, 2023 7:42 pm

Alexy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 27, 2023 7:37 pm I'm here. Sorry. I'm a grad student and my days don't tend to slow down much especially recently. That's really the only explanation I can offer for my "low impact" slot.

My role is a 2 shot watcher on any day I chose. I didn't see a reason to hold out so night 1 I watched psv. Scotty visited her. Night 2 I watched Long Con, no one visited them.

I meant any night I chose, not any day, just to be clear with the verbiage

Did Scotty corroborate your claim, and can you track kills?

oh yeah like that, Long Con also claimed to visit PSV though that same night

I don't think that's true. Long Con said that they blocked Scotty the night I watched PSV.

wait u right zzz me

i knew it was something

Was that resolved?

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:45 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:42 pm if it's 5-4 today, in your thread, who would alexey be paired with?

No one really pairs nicely in the remaining bunch tbh but I guess I have more reasons for keeping Cape town than Wilgy? That would be wild though, I really am more on the side of thinking there's some sort of shenanigans rather than the numbers being that drastic.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:58 am Strongest argument against each wolfteam:

RDB/Abby: Abby's switch to RDB late in D4 seriously threatened to bring down RDB and she's been coming in hard against them today.
RDB/Ranmilia: Both would have had to switch to TSP last minute when DizzyMade could have gone down instead.
RDB/tedxtr: tedxtr voted RDB over Made, which nearly resulted in RDB going down; the two other EoD RDB voters are flipped town.
Abby/Ranmilia: Abby hinted at greenchecking Ranmilia but not actually hardclaiming as such
Abby/tedxtr: Lots of fighting especially early in the phase
Ranmilia/tedxtr: Uhh come to think of it, I can't think of anything off the top of my head.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:00 am Ranmilia/ted isn't something I considered but it does make a decent amount of sense

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:44 pm Pyxxy wonders why leetic needs to defend themselves with saying they have the more believable claim. He also believes Ran is right re: a wolf in Ted or leetic. Bereft death could also point to leetic as a role cop because leetic visited bereft on night 1. Along with this, leetic's claim at the start of day 2 made sure everyone would see it.

Cape90 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:50 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:58 am Strongest argument against each wolfteam:

RDB/Abby: Abby's switch to RDB late in D4 seriously threatened to bring down RDB and she's been coming in hard against them today.
RDB/Ranmilia: Both would have had to switch to TSP last minute when DizzyMade could have gone down instead.
RDB/tedxtr: tedxtr voted RDB over Made, which nearly resulted in RDB going down; the two other EoD RDB voters are flipped town.
Abby/Ranmilia: Abby hinted at greenchecking Ranmilia but not actually hardclaiming as such
Abby/tedxtr: Lots of fighting especially early in the phase
Ranmilia/tedxtr: Uhh come to think of it, I can't think of anything off the top of my head.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:00 am Ranmilia/ted isn't something I considered but it does make a decent amount of sense

If you can't think of anything from the top of your head about the team, how exactly does it make sense?

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:49 pm Okay question for the nighties: what's the most parsimonious explanation? Like, assuming no bussing of TSP, who's wolfiest? I think I gathered TSP got voted by RDB and Abi (?) and was trying to get a wagon on RDB, maybe?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:51 pm

Cape90 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:50 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:58 am Strongest argument against each wolfteam:

RDB/Abby: Abby's switch to RDB late in D4 seriously threatened to bring down RDB and she's been coming in hard against them today.
RDB/Ranmilia: Both would have had to switch to TSP last minute when DizzyMade could have gone down instead.
RDB/tedxtr: tedxtr voted RDB over Made, which nearly resulted in RDB going down; the two other EoD RDB voters are flipped town.
Abby/Ranmilia: Abby hinted at greenchecking Ranmilia but not actually hardclaiming as such
Abby/tedxtr: Lots of fighting especially early in the phase
Ranmilia/tedxtr: Uhh come to think of it, I can't think of anything off the top of my head.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:00 am Ranmilia/ted isn't something I considered but it does make a decent amount of sense

If you can't think of anything from the top of your head about the team, how exactly does it make sense?

I can't think for a reason why it's unlikely off the top of my head