The Syndicate

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:08 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:07 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:58 pm who shoots nutella day 2
You

I so obviously do not

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:08 pm**

can you hand out your strat now so we can know your plan is legit/not legit post flip?

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:10 pm**

sure. everyone left has two protects left but epi?

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:11 pm**

epi - protect nutella
proto - protects randomly between alison and nutella
alison - protects randomly between proto and nutella

nutella

this plan gives town 50 percent odds at worst assuming i die today and the scum team is carot / Mac

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:12 pm**

or I guess if everyone has self protects left it doesn't even have to be in between proto Alison

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:12 pm**

wait that means theoretically you don't have to be right about the scum team

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:14 pm**

okay, so everyone in the game flips between self protecting and protecting nutella. this means aliens can shoot nutella and win exactly half the time as well. With weighted averages you can probably get this to something a little higher, lemme pull out the distribution and figure it out.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:16 pm**

oh wait you can make it so you fail on night 6 but have a straight wifom shot at night 7

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:17 pm**

but epi has to die

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:18 pm**

I'm just waiting for proto to give me the updated counts on how many protects everyone has

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:25 pm**

also I've gotta go. basically, here's what looks right.

everyone with two saves flips a coin. On heads, they protect nutella. On tails, they self protect.

Epi flips two coins. On two heads, he self protects. Else, he protects nutella.

This allows for wins with perfect shots about 75 percent of the time regardless of alien strategy, which is the absolute maximum a plan like this can get.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:26 pm**

this plan is also as fps proof as I can make it. please don't try anything except Proto I guess I trust Proto.

Proto can confirm this works I hope because I hope it works

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:26 pm**

there are alternatives that involve a lot of wifom but I think those boil down to 50/50.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:30 pm**

fwiw a basic matrix says that Nutella should shoot mac but with the amount of people convinced it's me/alison that might not go over well as advice

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:31 pm**

read my iso and glean my towniness if you think about shooting me

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:37 pm**

Morning buttheads

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:37 pm**

Or should I say morning TSP yeesh

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:38 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:18 pm I'm just waiting for proto to give me the updated counts on how many protects everyone has

intentionally not giving counts. Need to be able to credibly bluff the aliens

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:45 pm**

Everyone is acting like scum except Carot

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:34 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:01 pm @Epignosis what is the most compelling reason to believe Carotenoid is town?

I don't have one. It's a conglomeration of things for me.

1. At first I was annoyed that Carotenoid used a protection on me, but Long Con did it, protocultures also claimed to do it, and there have been failed kills. I don't think mafia is trying to shoot you, because that would be sub-optimal (though I have seen plenty of sub-optimal play from mafia factions in my time).

2. Carotenoid's attitude toward the decision to save me comes across as carefree and matter-of-fact; contrast this to Alison's insistence that Carotenoid intentionally blew a kill so she could say she protected me, which sounds angry and unhappy rather than investigative.

3. This:

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:20 pm
protocultures wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:00 pm Ok so

Alison save Mac

Mac save TSP

TSP save Carotenoid

Carotenoid save Proto

Proto save Epi

Epi save Nutella

@nutella please confirm this for all

If this plan is bad, now is a great time to start saying something...
Yes, please do what it says in the quote everyone

@Alison
@MacDougall
@TonyStarkPrime
@Carotenoid
@Epignosis

The mafia here has to know that I'm protecting you (I said I would and did).

Alison is the only known unprotected individual in this list.

The mafia cannot kill anyone else without outing a team member.

The only reason for the aliens not to kill Alison is to make nutella do it, but that comes at the cost of silencing an aggressive civilian sooner rather than later.

4. Now that I've read it, this:

protocultures wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:29 pm re Carotenoid, I have found some mistakes in math/mech (1.8% example and I saved Epi, Epi and Carotenoid are cleared town). Both are advantageous mistakes to make as mafia. I decided to give them the benefit of doubt because I dont know for sure that Carotenoid is super math/mech person so dont assume they cant make mistakes. I mean, I made a math/mech error on day 0. Carotenoid pointed it out. I found that towny.

Their manuiscript notes on their mech solve. Its like super try hard to do as mafia. Its not just notes. The paper is folded and creased. It looks genuinely like it was in a pocket all day. It isnt neat. It doesnt look like it was ever intended for others to see. I accept the english over french in the notes. The other intepretation is they did the solve as mafia and used it as evidence of town - which would be pretty amusing. I cant follow the notes so this could very well be the case.

Like, I think the team is TSP/Mac probably.

That didn't even occur to me.

And that observation drives me to believe even more that Sherlockcultures is a good egg.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:30 pm**

Hi I'm back
bzzzzzz pew pew time coming soon

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:48 pm**

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:49 pm**

glgl me

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:56 pm**

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:56 pm**

aaaaaaaah it's happening

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:56 pm**

Social Experiment

Psychologists would have a field day trying to study what happened in this war.

Assuming there would even be psychologists alive to do it.

Well, maybe some alien ones.

TonyStarkPrime (Bunker) was killed.

Night 6 Begins!

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:57 pm**

what
what
what
what

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:58 pm**

well shit

i loved the gif tho carotte

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:59 pm**

i'm
AAAAAAAAAAAAH
is it proto or is it mac
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
orfjierjnferojfiwjfwe

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:59 pm**

aight do the thing tony said

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:59 pm**

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:59 pm i'm
AAAAAAAAAAAAH
is it proto or is it mac
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
orfjierjnferojfiwjfwe

lol

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:03 pm**

i
aaaaaaah
husofifiofewfew
let's flip a coin then

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:03 pm**

I'm thinking this game may be a prequel to this story.

It's great.

It starts with all of humanity dead though.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:30 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:25 pm also I've gotta go. basically, here's what looks right.

everyone with two saves flips a coin. On heads, they protect nutella. On tails, they self protect.

Epi flips two coins. On two heads, he self protects. Else, he protects nutella.

This allows for wins with perfect shots about 75 percent of the time regardless of alien strategy, which is the absolute maximum a plan like this can get.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:02 pm**

i dont know how I can prove TSP strat. I'm just going to assume its better than anything I can create if he has worked in a randomiser.

it looks fine as I also think that we do need to randomise a bit at night and we need to get a bit lucky.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:22 pm**

Hmmmm

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:23 pm**

Mac are you an alien

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:26 pm**

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:27 pm**

Do we need to consider whether Epi is an alien here?

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:28 pm**

It feels like it.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:29 pm**

Oof gg to the aliens for real. I dunno what else to say. It doesn't matter who it is it's impressive as fuck.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:42 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:25 pm also I've gotta go. basically, here's what looks right.

everyone with two saves flips a coin. On heads, they protect nutella. On tails, they self protect.

Epi flips two coins. On two heads, he self protects. Else, he protects nutella.

This allows for wins with perfect shots about 75 percent of the time regardless of alien strategy, which is the absolute maximum a plan like this can get.

let's please do this

[mention]Epignosis[/mention]
[mention]protocultures[/mention]
[mention]Alison[/mention]
[mention]Carotenoid[/mention]
[mention]MacDougall[/mention]

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pm**

tsp is a math guy let his legacy be honored

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pm**

I already flipped lol

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:22 pm**

can we please look at Mac?

I mean, I know I have been townshielding at least 1 alien for the majority of the game which feels bad, but I dont think its 2.

I have not been this suprised post flip since Dizzy.

The annoying thing is, if Epi is town, and TSP didnt save Nutella, I dont think we necessarily end up killing TSP.

If Epi is an alien, then TSP bought us a chance we didnt deserve, because we just lose Night 5.

Did TSP post his flowchart post flip in the end?

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:24 pm**

protocultures wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:22 pm can we please look at Mac?

I tried.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:24 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:53 pm
protocultures wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:52 pm @TonyStarkPrime you have meta with Mac. Why is Mac town? I cant see it. I have tried.
I don't see it either tbh. He has the weakest argument. Carot's hard defense though is weird.

[mention]nutella[/mention]

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:28 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:07 pm it has to be carot/mac. That's it. That's the flow chart. Proto can hand out the night 6 confuse the mafia strategy if I don't make it.

here

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:29 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:07 pm it has to be carot/mac. That's it. That's the flow chart. Proto can hand out the night 6 confuse the mafia strategy if I don't make it.

I can get behind this, although literally im being swayed by a piece of paper that may be evidence of trying to work out how to kill the bunkers, and laser gifs.

A bit behind this is Mac/Alison.

Alison/Carotenoid - I dont even mind losing to this team. if this is the team, just well played.

I cannot contemplate a world with Epi.

Posted: **Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:30 pm**

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:24 pm
protocultures wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:22 pm can we please look at Mac?
I tried.

conclusion was?

The Syndicate

Space Invaders [END]

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