Bike [END]

[tutuu]

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4552961

[Hally]

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4552961

i don’t understand

[tutuu]

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4555428

[tutuu]

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4552961

i don’t understand

he is mafia in that game

[tutuu]

Oh. It was a joke. You said you hated early townreads so I gave you one.

Hi I'm MR I'm suuuper funny.

I thought it was genuine.

Do you have any read on Guillo? He's been posting a lot.

Image giving D0 reads.

Spoiler: show

probs just town but 'super paranoid' is a sneaky scum attitude that gets towncleared so I'm not closing the book on that, considering he's playing it up a fair bit.

(the counterpart to the X but Y post from mafia universe)

[Hally]

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4552961

i don’t understand

he is mafia in that game

but what is that meant to illustrate?

[tutuu]

sass for slanking

[tutuu]

i read over MR's iso in this game too

in hindsight his frustration wasnt as big as i thought it was

he's the wolf. im done

yeeting anyone else is stupid

[tutuu]

yeeting somebody not named MR is the equivalent of a hero ego yeet

"i want to be smart and show how smart i am by yeeting the less likely player, even tho MR is scummier, but i wanna show how good i am by finding the deep wolf"

[Hally]

well the difference would be that he didn’t keep slanking after he said that and stick people’s noses in it. instead immediately after he said that he posted like ten long isos because he was self conscious about being called out for not doing much and didn’t want to flaunt it unlike this game

[Hally]

i’m not gonna stop people from killing radishes

but if he ends up being town i’m voting lc in F3 assuming we’re both there

[Marmot]

yeeting somebody not named MR is the equivalent of a hero ego yeet

"i want to be smart and show how smart i am by yeeting the less likely player, even tho MR is scummier, but i wanna show how good i am by finding the deep wolf"

We could just no yeet and make this game last forever

[tutuu]

well the difference would be that he didn’t keep slanking after he said that and stick people’s noses in it. instead immediately after he said that he posted like ten long isos because he was self conscious about being called out for not doing much and didn’t want to flaunt it unlike this game

ok hally

u dont need to voice your disagreement every single time i make a post you disagree with. i am fully aware u disagree. its tiring

[tutuu]

i’m not gonna stop people from killing radishes

but if he ends up being town i’m voting lc in F3 assuming we’re both there

i am voting for the non-hally person in f3 aswell

[Hally]

i’m clearing tutuu. and if radishes is gonna be the chop next day i’m clearing marmot too because i don’t have enough chops to really consider him. and then i’m voting lc in F3 if i’m alive. there you go

[Hally]

i’m just living and dying with a radishes/lc poe. if it’s wrong it’s wrong. i can’t put any more thought into this game

[Marmot]

*makes a mental note that every post Hally makes going forward was not thought about at all

[Hally]

accurate

[Long Con]

i’m just living and dying with a radishes/lc poe. if it’s wrong it’s wrong. i can’t put any more thought into this game

How is Marmot not in your POE, that's completely bonkers.

[Hally]

i’m just living and dying with a radishes/lc poe. if it’s wrong it’s wrong. i can’t put any more thought into this game

How is Marmot not in your POE, that's completely bonkers.

because not everyone can be in my poe. we only have two chops to find one wolf. i cannot have a poe of three

[Hally]

if it were up to me i wouldn’t chop radishes, but tutuu wants to and dizzy also wanted to. so i’m not standing in the way of that and am going to hope i’m wrong about him. then if i’m right about him it’s going to be F3 and i may or may not be alive and probably one of tutuu or i will have to decide between you/marmot. i will likely vote you if i’m there. i don’t know what tutuu will do, but i’m sure she’s open to being convinced on marmot if she’s wrong on radishes. i also will obviously read everything you say about marmot too. i don’t know what else to do. i’m just being honest about what i think rn, but maybe it will change

[Hally]

i truly don’t get how you’re so sure it’s marmot or how you apparently cannot see him as town, because i don’t think it’s difficult to make an argument for him being town at all. he was instrumental in pushing both wolves. does that make him town 100% of the time? no. but i also don’t understand how it could be so bonkers to you that i think he probably is. but lolme if he’s actually the wolf and me and tutuu are both wrong. not like it’s impossible

[Hally]

i mean, if it’s marmot pretty much every villager throughout the game has been wrong on him except you. so lol us if so

[Hally]

Here’s the people I think it makes sense to take out of the immediate PoE:

Tutu - Doesn’t bus with all that thread presence. Is also just town.
Jules - Refuse to believe they replace in to just bus a teammate.
Guillo - Was the target of Made.
Marmot - Grabbed quotes that helped hanged Made. Unnecessary if scum.
Sean - Was the only town read of Made. Looks TMI/buddying.

Should investigate: LC, Epi, Radish and Tony probably.

[Hally]

I think I’m at this -

Town:
Tutu
Jules
Epi
Sean

Probably town:
Hally

Could go both ways:
Guillo (feeling town)
Nanook (feeling town)
Marmot

Direct PoE:
Radish
Tony
LC

[Long Con]

Ok, you guys play the game. Good luck, I hope we win.

[Hally]

Oh. Hi, Martin!

Guillo/Radish is still my top guess. They may be harder to place with others than each other.

Tony and Nanook should be suspects, I guess.
Epi’s Made vote is weird. It really is.
Hally is my favorite tinfoil, as custom will have it. But don’t act on that.
I’m ok following Tutu on a town read on LC.
Marmot really should be town.
Tutu, Jules and Sean lock town.

[Seanzie]

Wow! People have been busy this morning! I have a lot of work I want to get done IRL, but I plan to do some scum hunting myself soon to help find Epi and Made's teammate. I think most people's PoE looks something like MR, Marmot, LC, so I will probably focus on them, but I don't really want to just ignore the others in case of a deep wolf.

A few things off the top of my head:

Marmot: In hindsight, him moving from Made to MR (albeit at my behest) does look a little dodgy, as if he wanted an excuse to move off Made to potentially save him. Also, D2 I was voting Epi, and no one else was. I commented that LC was the only other one who seemed to be seeing scum!Epi, and Marmot chimed in real quick to try to get credit for also suspecting Epi. I find this weird because Marmot then didn't vote with me and LC, and also... I am wondering if the reason why I didn't remember that Marmat was "suspecting" Epi is because I didn't think Marmot was seriously suspecting Epi. I think this looks bad for Marmot, which is one of the reasons he is currently my top suspect.

LC: LC has argued that scum!LC wouldn't bus Epi, so he couldn't be scum with Epi. I don't think I buy this. LC really didn't seem to want to vote yesterday. Only after I pressured LC to cast a vote, and only after I expressed frustration over the fact that Epi wasn't getting attention (and called attention to the fact that LC was casting suspicion on Epi) did LC FINALLY cast a vote on Epi. It would have looked weird if LC didn't vote Epi there, and at that point, Martin was all-but-locked in, so I doubt Scum!LC would hesitate to do such a safe bus.

MR: I don't know. It seems like the best case against him is that he hasn't done much? Sure. I was townreading him for a bit because I thought Made was trying to kill him D1, but idk if that holds enough weight anymore, so I'mma look carefully at MR, but I am worried that the lack of content will make it hard to conclude anything useful.

[Hally]

marmot did make perhaps the most detailed scum case on epi i think N1. it’s debatable whether he pushed it as hard as he could have after that though

[juliets]

I wish I could answer the question of why Made moved from Guillo (town) to MR late in EOD1.

[Hally]

i also stand by my read that it’s unlikely for a wolf to bus a teammate that hard only to move off at the last second when their teammate really isn’t even that savable and tank all the bus cred they were going to get from the flip

[Seanzie]

marmot did make perhaps the most detailed scum case on epi i think N1. it’s debatable whether he pushed it as hard as he could have after that though

I'll make sure to take a look at that when I ISO Marmot later.

[Seanzie]

i also stand by my read that it’s unlikely for a wolf to bus a teammate that hard only to move off at the last second when their teammate really isn’t even that savable and tank all the bus cred they were going to get from the flip

Why wasn't Made that savable? It was 6/5/2 Made/Guillotine/MR when Marmot moved from Made to MR (making it 5/5/3). You moved almost immediately afterwards bringing it back to 6/5/2 again, and I think you sealed Made's fate, but idk how you can see Made's death a foregone conclusion at that point. If you wouldn't have been around to move, it very well could have ended at 5/5/3, or someone else could have moved, swinging the vote in Made's favor.

[Hally]

I wish I could answer the question of why Made moved from Guillo (town) to MR late in EOD1.

that’s a good question. dizzy seemed to think it reflected badly on radish. i think the opposite because of the lead up to the vote. made was actively trying to get votes onto radishes before he voted there (even pinging people directly asking them to vote radishes). i don’t know why he needs to do that to a teammate as a wolf when it’s easier to just get more people on guillo, but i guess you could also ask why he wouldn’t try to get more people on guillo if radishes is town

[Master Radishes]

So, tutuu, am I right to summarise your most recent addition to a case against me as 'here are a couple posts from MR's recent wolf game that sound like his posts from this one' ?

You picked pretty NAI posts from me tbh. You seem to be focusing on the fact that I got called out for slanking in that other game, and that I pocketed players familiar to me in it too by saying how much I love them.

I rarely do anything useful D1, regardless of alignment. I often throw love at familiar players I haven't played with in awhile, regardless of alignment.

Between this and the literal interpretation of my whole 'he said he never sasses people as a wolf' statement, I feel you're being really nitpicky with me. Like you're set on me being scum, and you don't seem to be truly considering any other option.

This is the kind of thing I associate more with a wolf than a vill. I'm still not over Made's interactions around you, but if you're indeed town you're showing that you're closed off from re-evaluating reads you've held since D1, and that's not a great strategy.

[Hally]

i also stand by my read that it’s unlikely for a wolf to bus a teammate that hard only to move off at the last second when their teammate really isn’t even that savable and tank all the bus cred they were going to get from the flip

Why wasn't Made that savable? It was 6/5/2 Made/Guillotine/MR when Marmot moved from Made to MR (making it 5/5/3). You moved almost immediately afterwards bringing it back to 6/5/2 again, and I think you sealed Made's fate, but idk how you can see Made's death a foregone conclusion at that point. If you wouldn't have been around to move, it very well could have ended at 5/5/3, or someone else could have moved, swinging the vote in Made's favor.

well if marmot was trying to save made, why does he vote radishes who only has two votes and not guillo who had five? what does voting radishes get him really? in my analysis of the EoD movement i noted how the only people there who could have followed him on radishes were you and made, and you were both on guillo not made. so even if he gets a radish wagon it would be instead of a guillo wagon not instead of a made wagon. that doesn’t save made. sure, someone could have popped in randomly and voted guillo to save made for him (instead i popped in and did the opposite) but the reality is that when he voted radishes nobody was there to do that. everyone but you, him and made wasn’t there. does he move to radishes just hoping someone who isn’t there comes in and randomly votes guillo? why? isn’t it better for him as a wolf to go for the sure thing and bus made for the cred than to risk switching off to a vanity wagon and having made go over anyway? what do you think a wolf is more likely to do?

[Master Radishes]

I wish I could answer the question of why Made moved from Guillo (town) to MR late in EOD1.

that’s a good question. dizzy seemed to think it reflected badly on radish. i think the opposite because of the lead up to the vote. made was actively trying to get votes onto radishes before he voted there (even pinging people directly asking them to vote radishes). i don’t know why he needs to do that to a teammate as a wolf when it’s easier to just get more people on guillo, but i guess you could also ask why he wouldn’t try to get more people on guillo if radishes is town

Speaking as someone who has been caught in that D1 chop position before as a wolf, it feels more 'townie-like' to go for a third flash wagon option. It's what I'd do, anyway. People who start flash wagons usually get a quiet towncred rather than any suss, ime.

Spoiler: show

That said, I've also, as a wolf going down, deliberately pushed a partner, even one in danger themselves, in order to create distance.

[Hally]

if anything marmot’s vote on radishes made made (lol) less savable than if marmot had stayed on made. because in voting radishes he got sean and made to follow him, which destabilized guillo’s wagon. and guillo was clearly the most viable counterwagon to made, so destabilizing it amd starting a third wagon means made’s chances of getting eliminated go up, not down. but it’s arguable that marmot wouldn’t be thinking this deeply about it in the moment

[Master Radishes]

The wagonomics of EoD1 will make perfect sense once the game is over.

At this point I think it's clear it's a bowl of WIFOM.

[Hally]

The wagonomics of EoD1 will make perfect sense once the game is over.

At this point I think it's clear it's a bowl of WIFOM.

well fypov marnot was voting a villager EoD1. how likely do you think he is to move to you as wolf with made and epi as his teammates?

[Master Radishes]

The wagonomics of EoD1 will make perfect sense once the game is over.

At this point I think it's clear it's a bowl of WIFOM.

well fypov marnot was voting a villager EoD1. how likely do you think he is to move to you as wolf with made and epi as his teammates?

I've given marmot little thought tbh, and haven't re-read EoD1 in awhile so I forget the exact timings of it.

When I left the thread it was 6-5 Made-Guillo, though personally I definitely felt like a viable flash wagon choice and half-expected to wake up to that. w!Marmot would definitely have been better off on Guillo if he wanted to save Made, though. There wasn't that much time left, so flash wagoning me was risky.

I don't think it clears Marmot, but optics look better for him here than not, imo.

[Hally]

i mean, epi wan’t even there and was voting made. so it’s not like w!marmot has any help if he’s trying to save made. all he can do it hope that in the last seven minutes i think it was that a random villager who is not even in the thread at the time he voted will randomly pop in and vote guillo. does w!marmot leave it up to chance like that just for the small chance that will happen and made will be saved? is that small chance worth risking looking bad if made flips anyway and losing the cred he would have gotten? i don’t think it is, because however big the chance is that made is saved, there is also an at least equally big chance a random villager pops in and hammers made instead, which is obviously what happened. and where does that leave marmot?

[Hally]

The wagonomics of EoD1 will make perfect sense once the game is over.

At this point I think it's clear it's a bowl of WIFOM.

well fypov marnot was voting a villager EoD1. how likely do you think he is to move to you as wolf with made and epi as his teammates?

I've given marmot little thought tbh, and haven't re-read EoD1 in awhile so I forget the exact timings of it.

When I left the thread it was 6-5 Made-Guillo, though personally I definitely felt like a viable flash wagon choice and half-expected to wake up to that. w!Marmot would definitely have been better off on Guillo if he wanted to save Made, though. There wasn't that much time left, so flash wagoning me was risky.

I don't think it clears Marmot, but optics look better for him here than not, imo.

yeah

[Seanzie]

i also stand by my read that it’s unlikely for a wolf to bus a teammate that hard only to move off at the last second when their teammate really isn’t even that savable and tank all the bus cred they were going to get from the flip

Why wasn't Made that savable? It was 6/5/2 Made/Guillotine/MR when Marmot moved from Made to MR (making it 5/5/3). You moved almost immediately afterwards bringing it back to 6/5/2 again, and I think you sealed Made's fate, but idk how you can see Made's death a foregone conclusion at that point. If you wouldn't have been around to move, it very well could have ended at 5/5/3, or someone else could have moved, swinging the vote in Made's favor.

well if marmot was trying to save made, why does he vote radishes who only has two votes and not guillo who had five? what does voting radishes get him really? in my analysis of the EoD movement i noted how the only people there who could have followed him on radishes were you and made, and you were both on guillo not made. so even if he gets a radish wagon it would be instead of a guillo wagon not instead of a made wagon. that doesn’t save made. sure, someone could have popped in randomly and voted guillo to save made for him (instead i popped in and did the opposite) but the reality is that when he voted radishes nobody was there to do that. everyone but you, him and made wasn’t there. does he move to radishes just hoping someone who isn’t there comes in and randomly votes guillo? why? isn’t it better for him as a wolf to go for the sure thing and bus made for the cred than to risk switching off to a vanity wagon and having made go over anyway? what do you think a wolf is more likely to do?

As far as I see it, in the universe where Marmot is scum, Marmot had essentially 3 choices at EoD1:

1.) Stay on Made,

2.) Move to Guillotine, or

3.) Move to MR.

I think 2.) is not really an option for Scum!Marmot; Marmot's only excuse for unvoting Made was because I suggested that it would be good to create tension by making the vote count 5/5. If Marmot would have moved to Guillotine at that moment, this would have looked very suspicious, especially after a town!Guillotine flip, and would link Made and Marmot for the rest of the game. So, really Scum!Marmot's only options are 1.) and 3.). I see your argument for why 1.) is a viable path, just complete the bus and get the cred. However, I don't see how 3.) is not also a viable path - if Marmot wanted to save Made, 3.) is really the only possible way to do that. Marmot did not know that you would come in and vote Made, or that I would move to MR, and if I wouldn't have moved to MR, it is quite possible that Marmot would have jumped back to Guillotine (adding this little intermediate vote on MR, letting it be tied for a bit, and then pretending like the pressure got him thinking that Guillotine was scum is IMO the ONLY way scum!Marmot could have safely ended up on Guillotine).

MR makes a good point though, a lot of this is speculative, and hence not super reliable. I personally think this is at least somewhat suspicious from Marmot, but I haven't done full ISOs on Marmot, LC and others in a while, so I will reserve judgement until I've had more time to research.

[Hally]

fair enough

[Hally]

scum!lc after the tides turned against him in grasslands:

Ok cool. That may be the last time you ever see me try. Good luck!

lc after the tides turned against him this game:

Ok, you guys play the game. Good luck, I hope we win.

does lc ever respond this way as town?

[Master Radishes]

scum!lc after the tides turned against him in grasslands:

Ok cool. That may be the last time you ever see me try. Good luck!

lc after the tides turned against him this game:

Ok, you guys play the game. Good luck, I hope we win.

does lc ever respond this way as town?

Don't know, but this sort of read has already worked once this game.

[juliets]

Has LC named some games where he was town? I'd like to check them for a statement like that. I'll look in his ISO.

[Master Radishes]

Just scrolling through Made's iso again (cuz it's short) and I don't see any reason it can't be LC. In fact, Made throws very light shade at LC at one point and never brings it up again.

(I'm sure this has been noted - I'm just doing things on my own because I work better that way.)


On a different note, I'm somewhat reassured again that it probably isn't tutuu.

[Master Radishes]

In fact, the sequence of posts is this:

Spoiler: show

I can't.

Huh. That's not the greatest look.

If you want me engage you will have to explain.

Never mind. I was just kidding.

Tutuu couldn't explain your vote, so could you?

Nah, never mind. It wasn't serious. I'm unvoting.

ewww

Shade dropped with a simple 'ewww' to something LC says.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Made] aubergine

If my reads are correct, this is the third town in a row Made has shaded. First it was me, then it was the Guillotina vote, and now Long Con.

I mean i'm not gonna keep my reads to myself.

Thoughts on Long Con?

Follows this new suss up with a question to Tutuu ('thoughts on Long Con?')

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Made] aubergine

If my reads are correct, this is the third town in a row Made has shaded. First it was me, then it was the Guillotina vote, and now Long Con.

I mean i'm not gonna keep my reads to myself.

Thoughts on Long Con?

My thoughts on Long Con are in my ISO. Didn't you ISO me?

not since that read. I've been ISO hoping.
but noted, ty

Tutuu brushes him off and he calmly acquiesces.

There is no further follow up on this sudden suspicion of LC that I can see. In fact...

Spoiler: show

@Made How much do you suspect Guillo and Tony?

my baddie three right now are Guillo Tutuu and MR with tony on my bench. I think almost every game i've played since i came back i've played with tony, and I think i've read him bad every game. don't think i've been right, so if he's on meta, i'm not likely to go there

Despite the shade thrown at LC earlier the player salad includes a very consensus PoE and no mention of LC. This is only a few posts in between for Made, albeit several hours later in real time.


So where the heck did Made's suspicion of LC go?

I know this says more on Made than LC, but it still seems like Made was not interested in pursuing his suspicion on Long Con.