Escape From Trump Tower [GAME OVER]

[TonyStarkPrime]

Okay. I'm theoretically back to a normal sleep schedule but I still need a nap about now, so I'm going to do that. I'm coming back to this to continue my reevaluations at 9 pm sharp. In that time I hope 112 and Nanook have gotten some info out.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’ll be around probably around then or a bit later

I likely won’t have more out than I already do tbh, unless you have questions for me, I’ve already done my solving yesterday to find the right POE and it was correct, so

I know NKA is meh but also, like, look at the last two kills, especially the Mac one, if I’m scum you don’t survive last night lol

[112]

I could WIFOM about kills, too, but at the end of the day it is WIFOM.

I haven't played a great game but that don't make me scum.

[112]

I guess in my defence I'll say that I seem way too lost to be wolfing here. I have clear direction when I'm mafia; here I've just been playing in dirt.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Eh, I don’t think that’s actually true, IIRC from wildcards last year you were fairly lost when not bussing.

[112]

Eh, I don’t think that’s actually true, IIRC from wildcards last year you were fairly lost when not bussing.

naw i took big time control of that game

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Maybe, idk, that isn’t how I remember it but it was a year ago

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Your votes at least were drifty, which I saw yesterday and should’ve stuck with tbh

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I guess I could argue that my play if I’m a wolf only gets me to f3 but doesn’t win it? Like, I get there’s WIFOM here, but I think if I’m a wolf my actions make little sense from the FG kill on, yeah? Like...I’m actively sabotaging my wincon if I go with a sequence of [try to NK FG, push MP over 112, NK Mac], yeah? It gets scumNanook to f3 sure, but it almost always loses it for me lol


You should probably also be asking why you’re alive after claiming PR yesterday.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Idk, if you’re locked in let me know, otherwise I can try to help you find me however you want/need. I’m not really sure what to say beyond that tbh, I’ve made my cases, I can’t super complain about losing tbh cause I fucked up on Jules/scirrus/MP so it is what it is.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’m most likely going to attempt to pass out pretty soon, ping me with whatever and I’ll answer it later tonight or tomorrow morning!

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

This is both cool and fun

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

By which I mean it’s slightly annoying that I’m sitting here twiddling my thumbs saying “what can I do to help you?” and watching 112 slank to victory

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Our EOD voting records are basically the same btw...Wilgy D1, Sprityo d2, Soneji D3, Scirrus D4. Our only difference is D5, you voted me I voted MP.

While we're on voting, 112's only scum push this entire game was sloonei over soneji...and soneji flipped as a mafia PR. Like for fuck's sake, 112 has 106 posts this game, their only meaningful vote was to kill goon Sloonei over mafia PR soneji*, I've been wrong but at least I've been out here making pushes and reads and playing the game.


Or we can talk about how if I'm mafia, trying to kill FG (who was hard TRing me IIRC), hard pushing MP who was actively trying to see me as town at 5, then NKing Mac over the PR claim that said they're always voting me is fucking insane. I get the WIFOM argument or whatever, but fuck that, sometimes you have to look at actions and go "Hm, that doesn't make any goddamn sense." This isn't Covid mafia where scum just needed to get to f3 to win, it's near-confirmed that the last mafia isn't a PR. And yet, when f3 comes along and you're hard claiming PR, do I CC you, the person that has been calling for my kill? NO! I claim vanilla! Cause that's a thing that scum do, right? Right???


This is getting fucking ridiculous, you started hard scumreading me yesterday for having the exact same voting record as you, you're keeping your blinders on despite the amount of evidence that says I'm not scum I'm just town playing a mostly shitty game, and on top of that I'm getting annoyed that you're not even making 112 try at f3 you're just letting them continue to say nothing and slank into a win. You know their voting record is worse than ours? Worse! It's literally one person Dizzy wagon D1, one person MP wagon D2, mafia goon sloonei over mafia PR soneji on D3, 2 person MP wagon D4. That's disgusting! How are you looking at those votes and going "yes, that is what a townie vote record looks like" to the point you're not even questioning it even a little bit????!!! It's fucking baffling to me.


It almost makes me hope we're in the 1% world where town doesn't have a PR and you're just mafia, but alas I doubt that and we're just in the boring frustrating gamethrowing world instead.


*technically they also helped kill MP yesterday, tbf. Almost like they were setting up for this f3 and that's why they left the claimed PR alive

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

(on a personal side note, I'm no longer going to doubt my early gut 112 read when I have a strong one, 3/3 is enough to pretend it's a meaningful sample size)

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’m not a fan of walls, but I am a fan of google docs and therefore I’m not going to split this up.

Let’s start with some good ol fashioned vote count analysis. A bit of thinking about the game, first: this game has lacked strong town leadership. After a NDF day 1, town has been in a state of general confusion. This culminated ultimately with MP and Mac death tunnelling each other on day 5, leaving us without any voice at all. I have made no secret, since subbing in, that I lacked the energy to put into this game, and after a few losses I’m not feeling particularly confident in my abilities here. But we’ll start anyways.

Day 1: 112 on Dizzy, Nanook on Wilgy, Soneji on Sloonei. I think there’s nothing to be gained here.
Day 2: 112 on MP, everyone else on sprityo.
Day 3: thunderdome between Sloonei and Soneji, 112 and Soneji on Sloonei, Nanook on Soneji. Looks fine for both.
Day 4: 112 on MP, the rest of us in the insane CFD to Scirrus. 3 of the members of that insane CFD were town, but it’s hard to see what Nanook’s motivations were here.
Day 5: both 112 and Nanook on MP.

Weh.

Okay, here’s what’s going to happen. I’m going to read the two ISOs, then I’m going to read the entire game, then I’m going to ask a series of questions, then I’m going to vote. I’m not doing any more work than that.

112 first:

Unless you were in Inception it might be

I was too busy hosting it to play in it.

What can you tell me about 112 the mafia player that I might not already know?

I'm better at solving the game in my head than I am at explaining why I think what I do.

What sort of things do you look for and how do you develop your reads?

Tonal impurities, inconsistencies throughout a person's set of posts, reads whose justifications seem to fail inspection, potential team associations, meta if I have it.

A lot of the time I'm just looking for one post that seems odd and I'll build an entire case around it. When someone's wolfing, often one post they make gives them away entirely, and I can spend two+ rounds quoting that one post if I think it's strong enough reason to lynch them. If a post pings me, I'll ISO the player and see how many of their posts fit in the world where they're scum.

Where does nova's entrace fit in this structure?

I'm pretty null on nova's entrance. I just thought the response to your post was a little odd, but I'm not taking it and running to the bank or anything.

Look at this night 0 conversation. Like. Wow. 112 later boxes Sloonei as “possible wolf”, with a strong town read on Scirrus. Nothing to write home about.

A civilian Sloonei would love "solid reads at this point." It gives him a chance to figure things out later.

Sloonei is not a civilian. Lynch him now.

Tell me a little bit about Sloonei

Does he have trouble keeping a town mindset as scum?

I agree that not wanting solid reads is not really a pro-town thing to say

But I feel like experienced scum would try to avoid saying things like that, because they would look bad. And he strikes me as an experienced player

Sloonei is an excellent civilian. He's a thread leader and a facilitator in the sense that he welcomes and explores hot takes. He also bounces around with his votes to see what comes of it.

He struggles to maintain a civilian facade as mafia. That isn't to say he can't do it. He can.

And not that I buy into post count meaning much, but Sloonei with 25 posts at this point is pretty...shall I say it?

Uninspiring.

I think he's caught and he's clammed up.

This is pretty scathing although I can't say how accurate it is to his meta.

“BIG IF TRUE” is on my scum tells list. A negative point for 112, but I like that 112 puts some work into getting Dizzy chopped based on meta. I think that if 112 had a scum team, they’d either be more united on that front or 112 would be discussing the likelihood of Dizzy being dangerous in scum chat.

112 goes on to get in a bit of a tussle with Wilgy over the two posts that almost got him chopped day 1. To me, this provides w!112 more than enough cover to vote for Wilgy and save Sloonei. The final vote on Dizzy looks better then. But that’s slightly belied by

I also haven't liked posts by Wilgy as stated, but he's made enough decent ones that I've jived with that I probably wouldn't lynch there today.

I just read through Sloonei's posts. He posted exactly 4 times yesterday (Tuesday) and hasn't posted at all today. That's not looking good. I understand he's playing another game but he's got no time at all to post in this one on the day we have EOD? I don't like it, the only question for me is whether MP7 is right and we should give him another day because his value if he's town is high. (Is that +EV? Still not 100% sure on how that term is used)

Other than Sloonei, I'm looking toward LC or Soneji for a vote. Since LC and Sloonei already have some heat I'm going to throw a vote Soneji's way.

Has Soneji posted?

112 has a pretty slow D2, me and Nanook were aggressively pushing what in hindsight was a terrible mdf on sprityo. I’m going to call this NAI.

Sloonei is likely just town guys

Pulling a Nanook post out of context. This was on day 3. It was also… very wrong. Sloonei got yeeted pretty aggressively on Day 3.

@112 are you caught up? What are your reads looking like now?

@112

I'm caught up, although I haven't read thoroughly.

I still think you're town. I think Nanook is town. I would put sprityo here but we lynched him.

I don't know what to make of Mac as he's not playing like anything I've seen from him before. I'd lean town because I expect he puts in more effort if he's wolfing, but this isn't a strong lean at this point.

Tony's kind of suspicious. He says he's playing a weak game and from my experience it's scum who are more conscious of not participating well.

Sloonei has been in the lynch discussions since D1 and I get the feeling he's just coasting by/trying not to die instead of actively championing any reads he has.

I haven't read a single post from Soneji this game that I can recall.

And I find Long Con and MP+ suspicious but more so Long Con.

Okay let's work this out.

good:
Me/LC/Mac/Nanook/"Dizzy"/FG(assuming scum scirrus OR town sloonei)/MP(assuming I don't go back later and change my mind)

bad:
wilgy/sloonei/scirrus

others: 112/soneji

I think we have likely two mislynches left. I think the best course of action is thus to link the spots it's hard to get a good grasp on -- thus far 112/soneji -- as to not bring those into M/LYLO. I have no good reasons to townread 112 or soneji at this point. I really cannot get down to a brain level where I can really analyze sloonei or scirrus right now, but this is a start.

So.

If you townread 112 or soneji, please let me know why.

If I tell you why I townread myself, would it be angleshooting?

At this point, please do.

If I had to make a list right now it'd be

112
Nanook
Scirrus
Mac
Soneji
Tony
Wilgy
FG
MP+
LC
Sloonei

Dizzy

Unfortunate in retrospect.

And just nothing from day 4 on. Nothing to look at. I can respect Mac’s opinion a bit here, but I don’t have a lot to go on.

112, I need you to do something. I need a display of towniness here, or something. Anything. Case Nanook. Tell me what I'm missing. Gonna ISO Nanook now, splitting it here so I can get in a few rounds of clone hero.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Sloonei over soneji is not equal, soneji flipped was the (presumably one and only) mafia PR.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

*flipped as

[TonyStarkPrime]

I was prepared to say that whoever pointed that out first was scum, but I don't know if that's a real tell

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I mean if 112 had done literally anything else this entire game it wouldn’t really be a point, but they haven’t so it is

It’s also obviously not something they’re going to bring up, lol

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

But yeah, I mean, 112 has been invested in exactly two TKs, sloonei over soneji D3 and MP over me D5. These are exactly the kills 112 has to be invested in as mafia, yeah? Sloonei over soneji to keep their PR alive, and MP over me cause a TSP/Nanook/112 f3 is exponentially more winnable than any combination of Mac/Nanook/MP/112.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Btw this post viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1892&p=614991#p614991 and the one immediately after it existing is kind of scummy imo when 112 hasn’t participated in a single EOD.

[TonyStarkPrime]

But yeah, I mean, 112 has been invested in exactly two TKs, sloonei over soneji D3 and MP over me D5. These are exactly the kills 112 has to be invested in as mafia, yeah? Sloonei over soneji to keep their PR alive, and MP over me cause a TSP/Nanook/112 f3 is exponentially more winnable than any combination of Mac/TSP/MP/112.

(I'm going to correct this in my head.)
It's a good point, but consider that 112 has had you listed as a top town read all game. It's very believable that 112 would rather chop MP over you in any circumstance.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Btw this post viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1892&p=614991#p614991 and the one immediately after it existing is kind of scummy imo when 112 hasn’t participated in a single EOD.

I read into it a bit of guilt

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm going to make one post now out of internal emotion where I yell at MP and Mac for being dumb.

MP AND MAC

Love y'all. Also I blame you for this mess. And making me read all that. And forcing me into another F3 with no direction.

[112]

But yeah, I mean, 112 has been invested in exactly two TKs, sloonei over soneji D3 and MP over me D5. These are exactly the kills 112 has to be invested in as mafia, yeah? Sloonei over soneji to keep their PR alive, and MP over me cause a TSP/Nanook/112 f3 is exponentially more winnable than any combination of Mac/Nanook/MP/112.

With TSP claiming last round, I would have killed him over Mac.

[112]

I'll case Nanook in a bit- just going to have breakfast first

[112]

Our EOD voting records are basically the same btw...Wilgy D1, Sprityo d2, Soneji D3, Scirrus D4. Our only difference is D5, you voted me I voted MP.

While we're on voting, 112's only scum push this entire game was sloonei over soneji...and soneji flipped as a mafia PR. Like for fuck's sake, 112 has 106 posts this game, their only meaningful vote was to kill goon Sloonei over mafia PR soneji*, I've been wrong but at least I've been out here making pushes and reads and playing the game.


Or we can talk about how if I'm mafia, trying to kill FG (who was hard TRing me IIRC), hard pushing MP who was actively trying to see me as town at 5, then NKing Mac over the PR claim that said they're always voting me is fucking insane. I get the WIFOM argument or whatever, but fuck that, sometimes you have to look at actions and go "Hm, that doesn't make any goddamn sense." This isn't Covid mafia where scum just needed to get to f3 to win, it's near-confirmed that the last mafia isn't a PR. And yet, when f3 comes along and you're hard claiming PR, do I CC you, the person that has been calling for my kill? NO! I claim vanilla! Cause that's a thing that scum do, right? Right???


This is getting fucking ridiculous, you started hard scumreading me yesterday for having the exact same voting record as you, you're keeping your blinders on despite the amount of evidence that says I'm not scum I'm just town playing a mostly shitty game, and on top of that I'm getting annoyed that you're not even making 112 try at f3 you're just letting them continue to say nothing and slank into a win. You know their voting record is worse than ours? Worse! It's literally one person Dizzy wagon D1, one person MP wagon D2, mafia goon sloonei over mafia PR soneji on D3, 2 person MP wagon D4. That's disgusting! How are you looking at those votes and going "yes, that is what a townie vote record looks like" to the point you're not even questioning it even a little bit????!!! It's fucking baffling to me.


It almost makes me hope we're in the 1% world where town doesn't have a PR and you're just mafia, but alas I doubt that and we're just in the boring frustrating gamethrowing world instead.


*technically they also helped kill MP yesterday, tbf. Almost like they were setting up for this f3 and that's why they left the claimed PR alive

come on dude. how many scum pushes did you make? it's a game with 3 scum slots and i was townreading you for most of the game. this game has been anything but shooting fish in a barrel.

[112]

Nanook townreads sloonei 4-5 times in his ISO, and I didn't see a single Soneji post through a quick skim. How is this a better record than mine?

My no kill list currently stands as

Jules/nova/112/Epi/sloonei/scirrus/Dizzy*/MP

*I generally am in favor of killing 3p claims but I like dizzy and I empathize with their plight if their claim is true and I feel like it's pointless to try and kill them before D4 anyways, so I'm just putting them on my no kill list and leaving it at that.

I vote we form a sloonei/MP/Nanook Committee to Kill Someone

Sloonei is likely just town guys

[112]

He even voted Wilgy over Sloonei D1. I had my vote on Dys admittedly, but I was absent.

[112]

The only vote Nanook placed on a wolf was Soneji in the Sloonei/Soneji thunderdome. The only vote I placed on a wolf to this round was on Sloonei in the same vote. We're pretty much even.

[112]

If you look through Nanook's ISO it's mostly one-liners until the later rounds when one would presume he's trying to close the game up. He's accusing me of slanking through the game, but there's hardly anything substantial in most of his own posts. And then when his head's on the block, he goes right to wallposting. That's sus.

[112]

Like idk what you expect man when there's 5 players left and four of them are saying "yeah it's just Nanook, if it's not him I'm totally lost," I'm doing what I can but like...what am I supposed to do with that? Call you all idiots or something, I guess, but like...that's tiring, and I can't even really blame anyone that's reading me mafia based off sloonei interactions to be totally honest. I've played a pretty poor game, not really fair to get mad at people for scumreading me for it.

So yeah, I'll put in a token defense, but that's all I really have in me on that front. More interested in trying to help narrow things down for you guys tomorrow at this point.

'Sigh, guess i'm gonna lose guys, i'll do my best to help, it's too bad you're lynching me here but it is what it is, wish you could see my townness radiating through the curtains here but it's a shame that's not the case.'

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

But yeah, I mean, 112 has been invested in exactly two TKs, sloonei over soneji D3 and MP over me D5. These are exactly the kills 112 has to be invested in as mafia, yeah? Sloonei over soneji to keep their PR alive, and MP over me cause a TSP/Nanook/112 f3 is exponentially more winnable than any combination of Mac/TSP/MP/112.

(I'm going to correct this in my head.)
It's a good point, but consider that 112 has had you listed as a top town read all game. It's very believable that 112 would rather chop MP over you in any circumstance.

Sure, fine, whatever, in isolation it makes sense. I’d still argue that caring for 2/5 of the TKs and those 2 TKs being exactly the ones scum needs to care about is scummy regardless of whatever setup work they did. Their vote was literally only relevant when it absolutely had to be, that isn’t townie!

[112]

But yeah, I mean, 112 has been invested in exactly two TKs, sloonei over soneji D3 and MP over me D5. These are exactly the kills 112 has to be invested in as mafia, yeah? Sloonei over soneji to keep their PR alive, and MP over me cause a TSP/Nanook/112 f3 is exponentially more winnable than any combination of Mac/TSP/MP/112.

(I'm going to correct this in my head.)
It's a good point, but consider that 112 has had you listed as a top town read all game. It's very believable that 112 would rather chop MP over you in any circumstance.

Sure, fine, whatever, in isolation it makes sense. I’d still argue that caring for 2/5 of the TKs and those 2 TKs being exactly the ones scum needs to care about is scummy regardless of whatever setup work they did. Their vote was literally only relevant when it absolutely had to be, that isn’t townie!

I vote for who I think is scum and have largely been unable to be present at EoD.

[112]

ngl nanook has played a pretty clean game all things considered and i was townreading him throughout the majority of it. so well done.

[112]

BUT--I say BUT--his reign of terror must come to an end. He probably even has a private email server he uses to conduct governmental business.

[112]

I am prepared to sheep wilgy and soneji and funny unquestioningly from this point forward, don’t let me down plz

I found a Soneji reference. Whenever he mentions Sloonei/Soneji he always packs them with other player names.

1/3 scum in a list is the unwritten rule.

[TonyStarkPrime]

BUT--I say BUT--his reign of terror must come to an end. He probably even has a private email server he uses to conduct governmental business.

feels like lolcatting.
though to quote somebody "if Sloonei were scum he'd be funnier" or something

[TonyStarkPrime]

I am prepared to sheep wilgy and soneji and funny unquestioningly from this point forward, don’t let me down plz

I found a Soneji reference. Whenever he mentions Sloonei/Soneji he always packs them with other player names.

1/3 scum in a list is the unwritten rule.

I...
moth?

[112]

BUT--I say BUT--his reign of terror must come to an end. He probably even has a private email server he uses to conduct governmental business.

feels like lolcatting.
though to quote somebody "if Sloonei were scum he'd be funnier" or something

[112]

tbh i'm not maf

[TonyStarkPrime]

weh

[112]

I am prepared to sheep wilgy and soneji and funny unquestioningly from this point forward, don’t let me down plz

I found a Soneji reference. Whenever he mentions Sloonei/Soneji he always packs them with other player names.

1/3 scum in a list is the unwritten rule.

I...
moth?

I don't get this reference.

[TonyStarkPrime]

@Scirrus besides them apparently being sort by post count, do you have actual objections to my no kill list? Do you think I have someone in the list that shouldn’t be?

If this is for D1, I'm actually fine with everyone in your list, except Sloonei. Like a lot of people think Sloonei is playing to his scum meta. So that qualifies them as a good lynch candidate at least imo. I wouldn't be super upset about lynching Dizzy either but there's the chance of his claim about not dying until N3 could be telling the truth?

I wouldn't like...hard clear most people in your giant list, because the chance of a misclear isn't that low when we're working with so many actives. But it's a good place to start

I mean yeah, it’s a D1 starting point, I’m not hard locking and never reconsidering, but you gotta start somewhere!

I pretty firmly believe in keeping sloonei alive until D3 at least

this is aggressive defense. probably exactly in Nanook's wolf range.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I am prepared to sheep wilgy and soneji and funny unquestioningly from this point forward, don’t let me down plz

I found a Soneji reference. Whenever he mentions Sloonei/Soneji he always packs them with other player names.

1/3 scum in a list is the unwritten rule.

I...
moth?

I don't get this reference.

in my champs game moth basically openwolfed for 3 days. The meaning is I'm not particularly impressed with this thus far.

Nanook gave me a great ATE, what do you have?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@Scirrus besides them apparently being sort by post count, do you have actual objections to my no kill list? Do you think I have someone in the list that shouldn’t be?

If this is for D1, I'm actually fine with everyone in your list, except Sloonei. Like a lot of people think Sloonei is playing to his scum meta. So that qualifies them as a good lynch candidate at least imo. I wouldn't be super upset about lynching Dizzy either but there's the chance of his claim about not dying until N3 could be telling the truth?

I wouldn't like...hard clear most people in your giant list, because the chance of a misclear isn't that low when we're working with so many actives. But it's a good place to start

I mean yeah, it’s a D1 starting point, I’m not hard locking and never reconsidering, but you gotta start somewhere!

I pretty firmly believe in keeping sloonei alive until D3 at least

this is aggressive defense. probably exactly in Nanook's wolf range.

This is a continual pet peeve of mine, I’d like for everyone to get together and decide whether they’re going to scumread me for being wrong on scum or for being right on scum, cause I currently get scumread for both and it’s mildly irritating.

[112]

I am prepared to sheep wilgy and soneji and funny unquestioningly from this point forward, don’t let me down plz

I found a Soneji reference. Whenever he mentions Sloonei/Soneji he always packs them with other player names.

1/3 scum in a list is the unwritten rule.

I...
moth?

I don't get this reference.

in my champs game moth basically openwolfed for 3 days. The meaning is I'm not particularly impressed with this thus far.

Nanook gave me a great ATE, what do you have?

nothing i guess? i thought i made some ok posts, but i'm not going to cry on your front doorstep over this

[TonyStarkPrime]

My no kill list currently stands as

Jules/nova/112/Epi/sloonei/scirrus/Dizzy*/MP

*I generally am in favor of killing 3p claims but I like dizzy and I empathize with their plight if their claim is true and I feel like it's pointless to try and kill them before D4 anyways, so I'm just putting them on my no kill list and leaving it at that.

Nanook claimed to be suspicious of Jules from d1. This doesn't seem to be true generally