So, here's the premise: Can Wilgy solve mafia using strictly VCA and LHF baiting?
Hypothesis: No, Wilgy cannot solve mafia using strictly VCA and LHF baiting because he's 57% dingus.
First things first, let's find associations and patterns within votes.
EOD1:
Chihiro 2
Voters: lucy, Dennis
CRichard 1
Voters: Neon
Dennis 1
Voters: dunya
Jackofhearts2005 3
Voters: Creature, pyxxy, Seanzie
Kate 1
Voters: Roxy
Neon 2
Voters: falcon45ca, DrWilgy
pyxxy 1
Voters: JDizz10
Seanzie 5
Voters: Jackofhearts2005, Kate, sig, Chihiro, CRichard
sig 1
Voters: Scrappy Doo
Immediate observations, if one doesn't believe that Seanzie was a pure D1 wagon, then we would best solve in Kate/Sig. JoH may have also been unpure, but that'd just be outing for creature, further review needed.
A pattern of one off votes and a town flip would advise indecision on the towns part, enabling a potential wolf or two to hide within one off votes. Notable wolfsided one off votes belong to Neon on CRichard/Mac, Lucy and Dennis on Chihiro, and JDizz on Pyxxy. I would not expect MORE than 2 wolves in here, but can see a potential world where there is 1-2 here, 1-2 on Seanzie/JoH, and one on the nonflipped.
Mid D2:
CRichard 1
Voters: DaughterOfOmega
dunya 4
Voters: sig, Dennis, hollowkatt, MacDougall
Jackofhearts2005 4
Voters: Scrappy Doo, lucy, Creature, RondoDimBuckle
JDizz10 1
Voters: falcon45ca
lucy 4
Voters: Neon, Kate, DrWilgy, JDizz10
Neon 1
Voters: Chihiro
Immediate observations, the spread out vote pattern of d1 seems to have slightly condensed by the time I took this poll d2. Notable wagons on Dunya, JoH and Lucy may require some resolution to proceed on the review of this one. Notable bad one off votes belong to DoO.
It is at least I think worthy of note that the unflipped members of Seanzie D1 in this spread have both voted off to the wagon that did indeed flip (joh).
on d1 bad votes:
Neon, JDizz are voting 'bad votes' from d1 on Lucy. Falcon is voting a 'bad vote' on JDizz10. Conf town Chihiro voting 'bad vote' on Neon. Falcon seizes notable town equity with this and a lack of a d1 bad vote I think.
EoD2:
Chihiro 3
Voters: hollowkatt, Dennis, falcon45ca
CRichard 1
Voters: Creature
DaughterOfOmega 1
Voters: MacDougall
dunya 1
Voters: sig
Jackofhearts2005 5
Voters: DaughterOfOmega, Chihiro, Scrappy Doo, lucy, RondoDimBuckle
lucy 5
Voters: Neon, Kate, DrWilgy, Jackofhearts2005, JDizz10
Immediate observations: An even wagon between Lucy (claimed 3p) and JoH T seems to imply imperfections in BOTH lead wagons. Lucy either being the wolf, or a wolf would easily be able to place a vote there without much discourse.
Falcon having voted on a bad voter then moving to a town wagon. I don't think detracts from the equity of pushing a bad voter mid day. Likely resulting in there being a wolf between Dennis and HK.
Comparing EoD1 votes to EoD2 the biggest interest I see is Creature moving near EoD off Jack and onto another conf town wagon.
Outcome of confirmed vote patterns:
Creature - Bad vote d1, however this could have been a consistent read based on early vote behavior d2, the however however is howevered by creature moving off Jack near EoD2 and onto another confirmed town. A lack of consistency presents a lack of strong read that should be assessed. Notable scum equity with two bad votes and a lack of consistency. Potentially one of the 1-2 in the Jack/Seanzie wagons d1. If Kate/Sig both show green destroy this slot.
DoO - No vote d1 can be a bad vote by all intensive purposes. Notable bad vote mid d2 and notable bad vote EoD2. If Jack's wagon was unpure, I believe this is where the wolf lies. Would be likely also one of the 1-2 wolves in off wagons/MIA d1. Townflipped Mac voting this slot also provides a vastly heavier wolfweight.
Dennis - Bad vote d1, Null vote mid d2 BUT has the equity of voting alongside a town so there's less wolfweight there finishing on a badvote EoD2. HOWEVER, the badvote EoD2 was reflective of the badvote EoD1 at least implying a consistency. Dennis does not have as much wolfweight as I thought they would going into this. Analysis on Dennis should continue in later stages of the game. Strange tension between HK and Dennis for EoD2 that should be further observed.
Falcon - voted for someone who made a badvote d1 on eod1, voted for someone who made a badvote d1 on mid d2, ended on a badvote EoD2. I think Falcon voting for badvoters at least shows some good town equity. Hard not to be biased as I think I've found Falcon as town every time he's allowed to do his own thing, but I only see good things from this slot with the exception of the Chihiro vote. However, if we believe that Dennis's consistency on the slot is reflective of a real read, Falcon may have subscribed to this as well thus alleviating wolfweight of that slot.
HK - Splints didn't vote d1 unfortunately, true null. Mid D2 HK, Sig, Dennis were all on Dunya, another null. Badvote on Chihiro EoD2. It is interesting to observe that Sig, who was on this wagon has a tension with Kate as expressed in the Seanzie wagon AND HK on this wagon would end up having tension with Dennis on the Chihiro wagon EoD2. IF there was a wolf on Chihiro, it was most likely HK due to these tensions.
JDizz - bad vote d1, null vote mid2 and EoD2 but on Lucy who was a d1 badvoter. JDizz is found guilty of being vastly neutral in vote pattern and should be analyzed best against Lucy. Unlikely wolf if 2 of the off wagon voting wolves d1. 3 wolves don't do that right?
Kate- Bad vote d1, high tension with Sig for the Seanzie yeet. D2 moved to Lucy consistently who was a d1 bad vote and thus should have slightly higher equity. Should be solved against Sig.
LPP - Lone voter of Dennis d1. This one is hard to place due to no votes d2. Should be weighted against the theory of 1 on Chihiro D2 in Dennis/HK/Falcon.
Lucy- Contention. Has a bad vote d1 and appears to be voting in self preservation d2. Would be hard to review, but is interesting as the counterwagon. Data could be gleaned on Neon/Kate/JDizz by resolving this d2 wagon, however VCA does not provide much insight on Lucy's real motivation as self preservation seems to be the key motivator.
Neon - Bad vote d1, moved to Lucy consistently D2 both EoD and Mid who was a bad vote d1. DOES have a lone conf town vote on them mid d2 which does increase the wolfweight abit in spite of voting a bad voter. I would cry if we were to flip Neon regardless of alignment, but it seems that it's necessary (with the exception of Lucy flipping W).
Rondo - Lone voter of Kate d1 and this should be weighted against the tensions between Sig/Kate on the theory that Seanzie wasn't a pure wagon. Received no votes and showed consistency on JoH. More data needed. PRO Kate sided parallel with Scrappy Doo.
Scrappy Doo- Lone voter of Sig d1 and should be weighted against tensions between Sig/Kate on the theory that Seanzie wasn't a pure wagon. Received no votes and showed consistency on JoH. More data needed. PRO Sig sided parallel with Rondo.
Sig- Bad vote d1, high tension with Kate for the Seanzie yeet. D2 moved to Dunya consistently who was a d1 neutral vote. Should be solved against Kate.
Conclusion:
Solving between the Chihiro wagon and the Seanzie wagon I think would be in our best interest. I do not think, based on votes, that it is not in the realm of reason to suspect 1 in Kate/Sig and 1 in Dennis/HK.
Other yeets that would be inherently beneficial for town based on the above are Neon/DoO.