The Syndicate

Idk man I’m pretty like

I think colin is mafia

And I think there’s a difference check between carote and Alison probably?


I also from a theory perspective think it’s fucking stupid to accept me as town and not follow my TK so

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:28 pm Idk man I’m pretty like

I think colin is mafia

And I think there’s a difference check between carote and Alison probably?


I also from a theory perspective think it’s fucking stupid to accept me as town and not follow my TK so

I didn't really accept it, it's more of a "we can skip over you not getting heat but we're still not following your yeet"

I have trust issues man

I am accepting the perspective of "fine, no nanook re-eval today" and being selfless here but I'm not willing to commit to actually following you on top of that

that's my head space atm - can't really blame me for it

I think that's about as much as I'm willing to pass to you for toDay

alternatively, make a case on Colin and point out why he'd be more individually scummy than Alison and I'll evaluate it myself after rechecking his ISO if you're really sure he's mafia

currently I don't think I am that confident in anyone other than Alison

I can and I will!

Like the problem for me is that a ted/carote or even a ted/colin (that would be a weird one tho) team is not impossible yeah


As for colin I think he’s mafia largely based on how 112 handled him, 112 largely pushes partners and he was one of her main pushes D1, thus the level 0 lizard brain says that colin is >rand mafia

Idk but I don’t think alison/carote is the correct choice today, I think they’re *probably* not the team so I’d rather hunt the other mafia and deal with a potential difference check between them tomorrow tbh

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:40 pm Idk but I don’t think alison/carote is the correct choice today, I think they’re *probably* not the team so I’d rather hunt the other mafia and deal with a potential difference check between them tomorrow tbh

I’ll probably regret this in post but oh well

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:14 pm Yeah I’m just ride or die with carote at this point and if they’re mafia you can yell at me about how obvious they were in post

Pretty sure colin is one, not sure if alison or ted is the second.

@Carotenoid can we do colin first, please? Pretty sold on him being mafia, combination of the resistance to doing him today and 112 scumreads on D1

Hmn I'm much more confident with Alison first. Not saying you'll never convince me but there's this thought in the back of my head of "what if it's Alison/Nanook"

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:22 am I'm like 95% on it being Carotte/ted now. Wilgy flipping V probably means Ted is W. I have to admit at this point that the odds of that being V/V is low, no matter how much I want to townread ted for his play earlier. (I have good reasons to townread nook and Colin too, so one of those townreads has to be wrong.) Carotte not re-evaluating her read on me at all in light of proto's flip does not make sense if she is town. If I am scum with Colin, why not just blast nook and let proto attack Carotte? Why townshield proto all game against lots of outside suspicion when I could easily let him die, only to kill him a night before ExLo?

No nightkill that has been performed this game makes sense if I am scum. Carotte has to know this. She also has to know that I have the solve if my towncore is correct. So she comes out and immediately attacks me, because that's what she realized she had to do.

I have good reason to believe Carotte is scum and Ted is scum, and I have good reason to townclear both noom and Colin. This is the way.

How am I not reevaluating my read on you? I went through why I think v!Alison doesn't fit any world, this is just trying to discredit me.

I'm pretty sure you thought you had Proto pocketed and that you could rely on him to win here but ended up having to nightkill him since he was starting to see the solve.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:31 pm I guess there’s no real reason I’m ruling out an alison/carote team going for the f5 cross bus to seal the deal at f3.

But, like...I think that’s probably a losing play for them, so idk

I’ll try to think more about teammate permutations later maybe, I don’t have enough time to figure this shit out properly but I feel like I owe broseph and co. at least an attempt

lol what is it with you people thinking Alison and me have bussed all game just for fun

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:33 pm[...]
The one thing I question though is why she'd take the Carotte tunnel as a scum over me? The only explanation I can really find is that maybe Carotte unravelled her team and so she panicked and went at Carotte because she was scared, which doesn't look very realistic given what I heard about her. Although maybe that would add an element of WIFOM that would distract us from the fact that a proto kill is a kill that Alison always makes.

w!Alison isn't like, scared, but she definitely isn't afraid to turn against someone just because they're scumreading her. She did in SI and she won in endgame so lolz

ha I just like. want to yeet Alison and get nightkilled and finally be done with this game tbh

I think I’m close to ruling out a carote/ted team tbh, I see no reason for ted to not just take me as town in that world

I'm feeling pretty good about tedxtr's last set of posts and the vote on Alison. Will iso later but I'm around to chat for a while

I still think this is the incorrect way to play it but

Fuck it fine make it end

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

I only have time to write one post today so I'm going to make it snappy.

If you vote me you're nuts. There's no way I have more scum equity than both Ted and Carotte here. Carotte was shoving the counterwagon to scum D1, and then proceeded to tunnel me all game without doing anything. Ted set himself up as opposite alignments to Wilgy, we exed Wilgy and he flipped town. I was the counterwagon to scum D1, everyone who died has read me as town, and I hard townshielded proto when I could easily have not done so.

I would usually try to realtime more during endgame and engage in longer drawn out discussions, but since I can't, I'll keep it as short as possible. Nanook, stop voting me. Genuinely believing that I have the most scum equity out of everyone in this game makes absolutely no sense. Genuinely believing that Colin has the most scum equity out of everyone in this game makes absolutely no sense. I have no partner equity with Carotte and I have no partner equity with Ted. If you think that Colin and myself are the most likely people in the game to be scum, there's nothing I can say other than "nothing about that theory makes sense or is supported by any kind of evidence".

It's ExLo. The two possible teams you're considering are: the counterwagon to scum D1 and the person who actively voted for scum D1 over the counterwagon. And: the person who voted the counterwagon to scum D1 and the person hiding on a vanity wagon D1. Do you really think the entire Alison wagon was pure? You think all of 112's wolf buddies bussed them? Really?

Stop the madness. Ignore everything Carotte and Ted are saying and just vote Carotte. If you prefer to flip Ted for whatever reason, that's fine too. But for the love of god please realize what a bad decision you're making.

I don't think I'll have any more time to make substantive posts before EoD. Sorry to all the dead town players. Unfortunately my uni is in a timezone that's 12 hours from mine, which means I have to keep very weird sleep cycles in order to catch the online lectures, and I consider my education to be more important than mafia games. I think I've proven enough times that I'm not frightened of directly engaging with people in difficult gamestates, so I hope you'll believe me when I say that and not take it as an attempt to slank off during ExLo.

If there's any pressing questions you need answered, ping me. I don't have time to make walls but I can answer short questions if I see a notification. In general, I recommend that you refrain from voting the person that's confirmed town like five times over during F5. Thanks for your understanding.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:14 pm Yeah I’m just ride or die with carote at this point and if they’re mafia you can yell at me about how obvious they were in post

Pretty sure colin is one, not sure if alison or ted is the second.

@Carotenoid can we do colin first, please? Pretty sold on him being mafia, combination of the resistance to doing him today and 112 scumreads on D1

Bruh I chopped 112 what is you saying

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:40 pm Idk but I don’t think alison/carote is the correct choice today, I think they’re *probably* not the team so I’d rather hunt the other mafia and deal with a potential difference check between them tomorrow tbh

My preferred team tbh

That logic only holds with the assumption that you’re town. I don’t see why it’s particularly more compelling than the counter argument that a scum team of you/112/x would always rather have 112 die D1 than you

Like I’m sorry if you’re town, I think colin is the best kill today still, but if forced to choose between you and carote today I’ll vote you and you can lament my terrible read in post

This is just lots of pretty surface level stuff and repeating it over and over won't make it true Alison
It's okay you played a good game, day 1 was rough for your team and it's already pretty impressive you made it that far.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:45 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:40 pm Idk but I don’t think alison/carote is the correct choice today, I think they’re *probably* not the team so I’d rather hunt the other mafia and deal with a potential difference check between them tomorrow tbh

My preferred team tbh

wut. I hope this isn't some sort of shady mischop-Carotte-at-F3 setup, please just nightkill me

I guess I have time to make one more stab at trying to convince nook.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:50 am Like I’m sorry if you’re town, I think colin is the best kill today still, but if forced to choose between you and carote today I’ll vote you and you can lament my terrible read in post

Reasons Colin is scum:
a) 112 listed Colin as a scumread, and 112 would surely bus their buddies
b) ???
c) Profit

Like can you not see how absurd that logic is

Like, the gamestate is bizarre beyond the point of credibility if the team is Colin/Alison. For that to happen, the following things have to be true:

- Town!ted thunderdomes town!Wilgy to the death, staking their own life on Wilgy being scum, and has no trace of remorse or inclination to re-evaluate the game when proven wrong.
- Amy is killed immediately after stating the the entire mafia team should not be reconsidered until F5.
- MacDougall is killed immediately after hard shielding mafia!Alison from town!Carotte.
- Both mafia members hard bus 112 Day 1, despite there being other viable options they could have pushed. Colin or 112, in this world, could have joined me in pushing TH (the Wilgy slot, so flipped town) or even 10K on Day 1. Both were plausible alternatives to the Alison/112 wagons day 1, but the scum team just decides "alright, let's have W/W wagons on Day 1, that sounds good" instead.

Like can you just please take 2 seconds of thought to think about how implausible the gamestate is if your solve is correct? You've repeatedly mentioned that this is probably the incorrect way to play it, that you'll probably regret it post-game, etc. Does it make sense for you to just shrug off/ignore all your intuitions about how wrong this feels to you and go with an exe choice that objectively makes no sense at all?

Why does scum Alison hardshield you yesterday, nook? If I want to pocket someone, I'd pocket proto and let the rest of the town kill you. Ted and Carotte started townreading you after I came around to you being town for sure. Nothing that has happened in this game makes a lick of sense if Alison/Colin is the solve. Take a step back from your tunnel of Colin, and just look at the wider picture and ask yourself which world connects the dots better on the events that have been happening this entire game.

I'm gone until EOD - I won't even be around to see/respond to notifications, so this is effectively my last shot at trying to get you to see the light. Either you come around or you don't. Make good decisions.

My colin read is definitely not based on nothing, what

It’s based on an observed history of how 112 treats their partners

Both worlds connect the dots, Alison

Like from a non-Alison POV both worlds make sense

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:22 pm - Town!ted thunderdomes town!Wilgy to the death, staking their own life on Wilgy being scum, and has no trace of remorse or inclination to re-evaluate the game when proven wrong.
- Amy is killed immediately after stating the the entire mafia team should not be reconsidered until F5.
- MacDougall is killed immediately after hard shielding mafia!Alison from town!Carotte.
- Both mafia members hard bus 112 Day 1, despite there being other viable options they could have pushed. Colin or 112, in this world, could have joined me in pushing TH (the Wilgy slot, so flipped town) or even 10K on Day 1. Both were plausible alternatives to the Alison/112 wagons day 1, but the scum team just decides "alright, let's have W/W wagons on Day 1, that sounds good" instead.

really? all this stuff makes sense to you?

come on man. you have intuitions/instincts for a reason. pay attention to them

I mean yeah

If you’re mafia your NKs are kinda forced yeah, you can’t reasonably kill anyone else without facing “well alison is alive over X, probably cause they’re scum,” so that isn’t really convincing to me tbh

If 112 says “hey guys I’m dead weight this game I just don’t have time/motivation” I don’t see why you wouldn’t push them D1...especially with the amount of suspicion being put on you. Like...in a 112/Alison world it makes total sense to me for scumAlison to look around midday, go “hey, if I don’t kill mafia today I’m probably not endgaming...and my partners are a disconnected 112 and colin, who dies in most games he plays...I can’t just survive today I have to push mafia and get myself in the lower end of the towncore.”

Like how does that not make sense??


Also, like, from a theory POV m/m wagons D1 is often not a terrible thing for mafia as long as the right one dies.

I had a dream last night that carote and ted were the team and I voted alison anyways. Dreams are a notoriously unreliable method of scumhunting though, so the approach I’m taking to it can be summed up best as

The suspense is killing me

I feel like I’m the only one without the answers here and I don’t like it

Wtf guys why didn’t anyone share the cheat shot

*cheat sheet

Day 6 has ended. Alison was chopped. She was:

Salt

SMH NANOOK DREAM READS ARE ALWAYS TRUE ALWAYS LISTEN TO DREAMS SMHSMH





gg wolves

Welp

I guess my dreams are more accurate than dunia’s

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:52 pm Final thoughts as I need to hop off:
I hope y'all take a long look at Ted and Carot after this.

Alison is potentially scum, BUT

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:24 am Mac's death also points to Mac dying being more important than Alison, Proto, or Colin.

Meaning a town Proto and Colin are likely on the wrong path and a whomever scum is thinks they can still yeet a town Alison

I feel that a scum Proto or Colin would've pushed for me earlier in the cycle. A scum Alison is possible, but unlikely for the reason that a town proto/colin is likely wrong.

wheujoifbherwjeionf RTYHUEJIOFHUERJNFIYERBHJKFER

DID YOU KNOW THAAT ONCE A TORTOISE SURVIVED 23 DAYS WITHOUT A HEAD
GHRTJEOJFRENKFIRJEFEIRFJIER

dont feel bad [mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention], shit happens, gg!

Yeah it’s easy when you don’t have to actually make the decision

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:14 pm DID YOU KNOW THAAT ONCE A TORTOISE SURVIVED 23 DAYS WITHOUT A HEAD

Thank you Carotenoid, very cool!

can u guise send link to wolf chat?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:15 pm Yeah it’s easy when you don’t have to actually make the decision

idk man i shouldnt be too salty but what gets me is you literally had the answer and elected to ignore your intuition along with all the actual evidence

dont ignore intuition especially when evidence supports it


alison was screaming truths at you and you were just all "lolshrugemoji" and choosing not to think and it was honestly p tilting

i dont want to be mean about it i dont even know if i would have gotten there in the same place i just disagree with your approach idk

Lol, I'm done being salty.

Good game all. Mafia did exceptionally.

I trade wolf chat for a dvc link

carotte played amazingly

and ted obviously had me fooled early game tho idk how he stayed under the radar so flawlessly lmao


nicely done both of you