[TOWN WIN] Cool Bug Mafia

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DrWilgy
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1901

Post by DrWilgy »

Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:56 pm
Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:45 pm More than 2 flipped villagers had Wiml as town.
I said yday I can lose to Wiml but I don't agree to lose to Wilgy and since then Wilgy started to analyze posts and votes.
Maybe is a coincidence, maybe not but doesn't give me confidence
Ah, my bad. Should've I remained slanky upon the game shifting so much? :D
No, you should care before of that
I did care. I went through a lul in gameplay because I wanted to focus on chopping the unknown members of PoE. Don't discount my discussions and additions early game while I was pursuing a passive gameplan until said passive gameplan doesn't work anymore.

If anything it should be non alignment indicative, and I don't know why you'd say it's suspicious. Both T Wilgy AND W Wilgy benefit from playing the game more when they did.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1902

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:02 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pm
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:58 pm Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).
Because Roxy doesn't trust me.

It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.

I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.

Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'
She literally said earlier that you're 100% Town, lol
newfound is a keyword in my statement. That development is brand new and I'm quite hesitant to accept it.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1903

Post by DrWilgy »

Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:02 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:59 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:57 am Pretty sure I 100% NK Ex or Roxy. My preferred f3 would always be Abigail/Me/Michelle, Abigail/Me/Roxy, Abigail/Me/You in that order of preference I think.
@Wiml this was where I'd put myself in W Wilgy's shoes.
I get that but why those F3s and not Wilgy/Roxy/Wiml, Wilgy/Roxy/Ex or something along those lines?
Wilgy/Roxy/Wiml, I'd lose. Wilgy/Roxy/Ex is a 50/50 I think.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1904

Post by _ExLight »

I'm going to the gym rn so I'll be busy for a couple hours.

I'd like to ask everyone for their rainbow lists and comments if possible. I'll try to join in too tonight still.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1905

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pm
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:58 pm Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).
Because Roxy doesn't trust me.

It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.

I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.

Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'
That seems reasonable.

I'll wait to see how Roxy reacts to my post on her clear of you as I'm don't really sure what she thinks happened around EoD3 but it doesn't seem to match what actually happened.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1906

Post by Michelle »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:03 pm
Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:56 pm
Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:45 pm More than 2 flipped villagers had Wiml as town.
I said yday I can lose to Wiml but I don't agree to lose to Wilgy and since then Wilgy started to analyze posts and votes.
Maybe is a coincidence, maybe not but doesn't give me confidence
Ah, my bad. Should've I remained slanky upon the game shifting so much? :D
No, you should care before of that
I did care. I went through a lul in gameplay because I wanted to focus on chopping the unknown members of PoE. Don't discount my discussions and additions early game while I was pursuing a passive gameplan until said passive gameplan doesn't work anymore.

If anything it should be non alignment indicative, and I don't know why you'd say it's suspicious. Both T Wilgy AND W Wilgy benefit from playing the game more when they did.
Please link me a town game where you were so active solving
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1907

Post by DrWilgy »

Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1908

Post by Wiml »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:02 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pm
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:58 pm Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).
Because Roxy doesn't trust me.

It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.

I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.

Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'
She literally said earlier that you're 100% Town, lol
I don't think Wilgy could have anticipated that during N3 though so surely wouldn't have impacted his NK choice as a wolf.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1909

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.
Who's your third between the other two?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1910

Post by Michelle »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:06 pm I'm going to the gym rn so I'll be busy for a couple hours.

I'd like to ask everyone for their rainbow lists and comments if possible. I'll try to join in too tonight still.
For someone who said they don't know mafia lingo talking about rainbow reads makes me question the fact you are not familiar with usual forum mafia expressions.

Please link me a couple of scum games you have (recent games if possible)
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1911

Post by DrWilgy »

Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:06 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:03 pm
Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:56 pm
Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:45 pm More than 2 flipped villagers had Wiml as town.
I said yday I can lose to Wiml but I don't agree to lose to Wilgy and since then Wilgy started to analyze posts and votes.
Maybe is a coincidence, maybe not but doesn't give me confidence
Ah, my bad. Should've I remained slanky upon the game shifting so much? :D
No, you should care before of that
I did care. I went through a lul in gameplay because I wanted to focus on chopping the unknown members of PoE. Don't discount my discussions and additions early game while I was pursuing a passive gameplan until said passive gameplan doesn't work anymore.

If anything it should be non alignment indicative, and I don't know why you'd say it's suspicious. Both T Wilgy AND W Wilgy benefit from playing the game more when they did.
Please link me a town game where you were so active solving
'wilgy is scum because they aren't active enough'

'wilgy is scum because they are too active'

Choose one my friend.

recent active t games:
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ionship%29

https://forums.studentdoctor.net/thread ... a.1478466/

recent active w games:
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?t=2541

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?t=2545

slanky t game:
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?t=2543

slanky w game:
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?t=2547

By all means pick and choose. I think you'll find my slank/solve to be non range indicative.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1912

Post by DrWilgy »

Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:10 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.
Who's your third between the other two?
I don't have a third.

I still think it's T Roxy and Michelle in spite of my paranoia.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1913

Post by _ExLight »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.
Wiml was one of the main people pushing for an early Lime lynch, which they kept up throughout the day while trying to make pairings as to potential scumbud teams.

I'm aware that my previous slot doesn't look too good due to inactivity, but if I recall correctly Roxy vouched that my slot is having some issues IRL and that's why they had to sub out. As my main argument, Kate wouldn't have been able to keep up with the thread as well, and yet the night kills seem to be done by someone who's been keeping up with the game. The previous days lynches are also clearly manipulated by someone who's was pushing the Kate/Epi/Quin PoE who I am fully aware to be full town by now.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1914

Post by _ExLight »

I would appreciate if you made a rainbow's list still, Wigly

They're a good way of visualizing someone's reads
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1915

Post by _ExLight »

*Wilgy

I too keep messing up names
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Re: [D3] Cool Bug Mafia

#1916

Post by DrWilgy »

Thinking about this still.
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```
Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1917

Post by Wiml »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:15 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.
Wiml was one of the main people pushing for an early Lime lynch, which they kept up throughout the day while trying to make pairings as to potential scumbud teams.

I'm aware that my previous slot doesn't look too good due to inactivity, but if I recall correctly Roxy vouched that my slot is having some issues IRL and that's why they had to sub out. As my main argument, Kate wouldn't have been able to keep up with the thread as well, and yet the night kills seem to be done by someone who's been keeping up with the game. The previous days lynches are also clearly manipulated by someone who's was pushing the Kate/Epi/Quin PoE who I am fully aware to be full town by now.
If that last sentence is true then wouldn't that make Roxy a villager iyo?

I don't think she's been doing much pushing or manipulating of the wagons at all.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1918

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:16 pm I would appreciate if you made a rainbow's list still, Wigly

They're a good way of visualizing someone's reads
Roxy
Michelle
Wiml

Ex
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#1919

Post by DrWilgy »

If there's two posts where I'm like, 'this is w kate' it's these two.
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?
Kate wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*
But Kate's last two posts really get me.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#1920

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:20 pm If there's two posts where I'm like, 'this is w kate' it's these two.
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?
Kate wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*
But Kate's last two posts really get me.
The post above the first one, asking why Lime Coke was a wagon and then doing almost nothing about that question was pretty wolfy as well imo.

But yeah, Kate's last posts really got me.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1921

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:15 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.
Wiml was one of the main people pushing for an early Lime lynch, which they kept up throughout the day while trying to make pairings as to potential scumbud teams.

I'm aware that my previous slot doesn't look too good due to inactivity, but if I recall correctly Roxy vouched that my slot is having some issues IRL and that's why they had to sub out. As my main argument, Kate wouldn't have been able to keep up with the thread as well, and yet the night kills seem to be done by someone who's been keeping up with the game. The previous days lynches are also clearly manipulated by someone who's was pushing the Kate/Epi/Quin PoE who I am fully aware to be full town by now.
Aye, I agree.

Yes, and I knew that. I also do very much appreciate the catchup effort you've done. I don't think Kate needed to keep up with the thread very heavily to know to snipe Falc/JJJ. Both of them were directly questioning Kate or had them in PoE. Kate would've at least seen/interacted with Falcon who just boomed their teammate. JJJ is just an obvious NK from her slot as well if she's on her PoE.

I don't think anyone besides you knows to hit Abigail upon you joining thread, but maybe that read is too gut and downplays the skill level of the wolf.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#1922

Post by Michelle »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:20 pm If there's two posts where I'm like, 'this is w kate' it's these two.
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?
Kate wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*
But Kate's last two posts really get me.
The thing is, a wolf is rarely giving a full solve. But after she said she joked iirc.
Idk

I will look at the games in the morning, thanks for the links
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1923

Post by _ExLight »

I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1924

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1925

Post by Wiml »

But at the same time I've seen so many ridiculous severely line crossing instances of AtE from wolves that I try to ignore it on policy.

And this isn't AtE at anywhere ecen remotely near that level.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1926

Post by _ExLight »

Also I'd like to point out that sticking out to the absurd Quin/Epi/Kate PoE is a more complex case of the Monty Hall problem even from just a statistical point of view. One of the worst plays that can be done here is insisting on my slot.

If we factor in other elements beyond just statistical reasoning, it's already a red flag how scum likely kept pushing the order to have the most inactive slot last (Kate's) probably in hopes not for her to sub out but to be either modkilled or lynched without resistance.

And as I said, the kills are incompatible with Kate who was too busy to keep up with the game. I'm not sure what else to say without recurring to meta elements: I don't shoot Abgail here as scum, I don't stay up til 3AM doing a catch up of like 1500 as scum, and I don't prod too many people as scum.

I'm personally feeling a lot more into doing Roxy > Wilgy for the next phases, but it might be optimal to do Wilgy > Roxy considering people have been discussing his slot more.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1927

Post by _ExLight »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?
I just don't think it's any of them? Wiml is very slightly more towny imo, but honestly if it's any of them they deserve to win imo and I'll kneel down and tell the rest of town I'm sorry for screwing up.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1928

Post by _ExLight »

I find a bit annoying that both the ones I'm scumreading are self proclaimed "guts/vibes players" because it's making me slightly insecure that their lack of stuff I'm expecting is due a difference in playstyle.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1929

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?
Do you think Michelle doesn't bus (or really try to save) Lime late into D1 when he's actively lolcatting despite obviously knowing she would need to win F3? And that she is fine with him lolcatting instead of distancing for the cred or trying to live D1?

And that she opens up the PoE to push me and remove Epi when she's already winning if she pushes the status quo? Especially when that push on me is based on being annoyed at a hammer that she didn't really have a reason to be frustrated at as a wolf.

And that Lime goes out of his way to defend her early when she's wagoned even though Michelle has a reputation for being easy to read (regardless of if that reputation us actually correct or not)?

I realise this comes off as a bit accusatory but I mean this genuinely because I think she has several strong positives in her favour.
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Re: [D3] Cool Bug Mafia

#1930

Post by Michelle »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```
Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.
Brad couldn’t be saved, never, with that random pop in the thread and doing nothing.
I would let my vote on him if I knew he was a wolf.
Instead hoping for a miracle, bussing would be the best course to gain town credit.
Also I wouldn't kill Falcon N1, I would always kill Jay.
Jay is a real god of mafia. He can't be kept alive except mafia hope he can be mischopped somehow. I couldn’t push Jay so I would N1ed him.
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Re: [D3] Cool Bug Mafia

#1931

Post by _ExLight »

Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:41 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```
Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.
Brad couldn’t be saved, never, with that random pop in the thread and doing nothing.
I would let my vote on him if I knew he was a wolf.
Instead hoping for a miracle, bussing would be the best course to gain town credit.
Also I wouldn't kill Falcon N1, I would always kill Jay.
Jay is a real god of mafia. He can't be kept alive except mafia hope he can be mischopped somehow. I couldn’t push Jay so I would N1ed him.
How late/early would you bus them as wolf?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1932

Post by Wiml »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:34 pm Also I'd like to point out that sticking out to the absurd Quin/Epi/Kate PoE is a more complex case of the Monty Hall problem even from just a statistical point of view. One of the worst plays that can be done here is insisting on my slot.

If we factor in other elements beyond just statistical reasoning, it's already a red flag how scum likely kept pushing the order to have the most inactive slot last (Kate's) probably in hopes not for her to sub out but to be either modkilled or lynched without resistance.
I'd argue that Kate would have died D3 if we didn't have your sub in causing you to get a day pass.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1933

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:34 pm Also I'd like to point out that sticking out to the absurd Quin/Epi/Kate PoE is a more complex case of the Monty Hall problem even from just a statistical point of view. One of the worst plays that can be done here is insisting on my slot.

If we factor in other elements beyond just statistical reasoning, it's already a red flag how scum likely kept pushing the order to have the most inactive slot last (Kate's) probably in hopes not for her to sub out but to be either modkilled or lynched without resistance.

And as I said, the kills are incompatible with Kate who was too busy to keep up with the game. I'm not sure what else to say without recurring to meta elements: I don't shoot Abgail here as scum, I don't stay up til 3AM doing a catch up of like 1500 as scum, and I don't prod too many people as scum.

I'm personally feeling a lot more into doing Roxy > Wilgy for the next phases, but it might be optimal to do Wilgy > Roxy considering people have been discussing his slot more.
I mean, I think it was very much a process of 'we have no reason to TR Quin' > Kate who was mostly absent BUT had afew posts that gave credit to the light TR > then Epi who's here and contributing but things can be seen as both wolfy and towny.

The substitution and tendency to not yeet subs upon entry shifted the order, and I think that's really it. I think Wiml put it like so yesterday when apologizing to Epi about that.

I disagree greatly with the kills. The kills all make sense for Kate/Ex still and I'll stand by that argument firmly.
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:37 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?
I just don't think it's any of them? Wiml is very slightly more towny imo, but honestly if it's any of them they deserve to win imo and I'll kneel down and tell the rest of town I'm sorry for screwing up.
Your Roxy > Wilgy OR Wilgy > Roxy is going to result in the only plausible yeet to be between you and I. If you are town and you and I end up in f3 together, town will lose. If you are town and you and Roxy end up in f3 together, town will likely lose (I really don't think I'm wrong on their slot).
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1934

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:39 pm I find a bit annoying that both the ones I'm scumreading are self proclaimed "guts/vibes players" because it's making me slightly insecure that their lack of stuff I'm expecting is due a difference in playstyle.
I've played by gut, nka, vca, and meta. Why are you so focused upon my gut reads?
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1935

Post by DrWilgy »

Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:40 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?
Do you think Michelle doesn't bus (or really try to save) Lime late into D1 when he's actively lolcatting despite obviously knowing she would need to win F3? And that she is fine with him lolcatting instead of distancing for the cred or trying to live D1?

And that she opens up the PoE to push me and remove Epi when she's already winning if she pushes the status quo? Especially when that push on me is based on being annoyed at a hammer that she didn't really have a reason to be frustrated at as a wolf.

And that Lime goes out of his way to defend her early when she's wagoned even though Michelle has a reputation for being easy to read (regardless of if that reputation us actually correct or not)?

I realise this comes off as a bit accusatory but I mean this genuinely because I think she has several strong positives in her favour.
Unknown. I don't know how Michelle approaches teammates. That's a meta call I don't have the data for, nor am I conscious of Michelle's posture during the LC wagon's formation of that 3/3 split. I can review, but that'd have to be later.

I agree with the 2nd point. I don't see Michelle forcing the PoE open based on how seemingly tight it was come Quin yeet. The only thing that'd lead to that would be W Michelle thinking they needed to to hold appearances? But that is unlikely.

I can see W Lime defending a teammate like that tbh.

I agree.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D3] Cool Bug Mafia

#1936

Post by DrWilgy »

Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:41 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```
Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.
Brad couldn’t be saved, never, with that random pop in the thread and doing nothing.
I would let my vote on him if I knew he was a wolf.
Instead hoping for a miracle, bussing would be the best course to gain town credit.
Also I wouldn't kill Falcon N1, I would always kill Jay.
Jay is a real god of mafia. He can't be kept alive except mafia hope he can be mischopped somehow. I couldn’t push Jay so I would N1ed him.
Yup I believe this.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1937

Post by _ExLight »

If we lose because of Wiml/ Michelle being wolf then it is what it is. As it was before me joining the path people were discussing was Epi+me+you (Wilgy) so it would result in a loss anyway.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:47 pm
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:39 pm I find a bit annoying that both the ones I'm scumreading are self proclaimed "guts/vibes players" because it's making me slightly insecure that their lack of stuff I'm expecting is due a difference in playstyle.
I've played by gut, nka, vca, and meta. Why are you so focused upon my gut reads?
I'm not, I appreciate your different approaches, I just had the impression you had self described yourself as a player that focused more on gut feeling? I might be misremembering.
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Re: [D3] Cool Bug Mafia

#1938

Post by Michelle »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:43 pm
Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:41 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```
Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.
Brad couldn’t be saved, never, with that random pop in the thread and doing nothing.
I would let my vote on him if I knew he was a wolf.
Instead hoping for a miracle, bussing would be the best course to gain town credit.
Also I wouldn't kill Falcon N1, I would always kill Jay.
Jay is a real god of mafia. He can't be kept alive except mafia hope he can be mischopped somehow. I couldn’t push Jay so I would N1ed him.
How late/early would you bus them as wolf?
Hard to tell. It depends on scum chat activity and that's only something to speculate.
An MU player said once that when he feels his scum game is weak asks his partner/s to bus.
The fact Brad would be burnt by a new wolf range like Wiml (iirc) said could mean there was a bussing plan from start or from a moment onward.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1939

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:52 pm If we lose because of Wiml/ Michelle being wolf then it is what it is. As it was before me joining the path people were discussing was Epi+me+you (Wilgy) so it would result in a loss anyway.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:47 pm
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:39 pm I find a bit annoying that both the ones I'm scumreading are self proclaimed "guts/vibes players" because it's making me slightly insecure that their lack of stuff I'm expecting is due a difference in playstyle.
I've played by gut, nka, vca, and meta. Why are you so focused upon my gut reads?
I'm not, I appreciate your different approaches, I just had the impression you had self described yourself as a player that focused more on gut feeling? I might be misremembering.
I utilize many methods of solving. I go out of my way to copy players I play with rather than attempting to copy/refine my own approach.

While not an exact copy of Tutuu in cyberpunk, I think my inspiration for this game comes heavily from their approach to that one.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1940

Post by _ExLight »

idk who tutuu is
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1941

Post by Michelle »

It's midnight for me, I can't keep my eyes open, I will try to reread as much as possible in the morning.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1942

Post by DrWilgy »

Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:57 pm It's midnight for me, I can't keep my eyes open, I will try to reread as much as possible in the morning.
Gn Michelle. Ty for your hard work.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1943

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:56 pm idk who tutuu is
Cyberpunk has been linked and referenced quite afew times this game. Their name is present within that game. Feels odd the need to iterate this.

'I'm not going to go reference the person you are copying to see' would've made more sense imo.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1944

Post by _ExLight »

would you say you're trying to mimic any of the living players in this current one, Wilgy?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1945

Post by DrWilgy »

_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:00 pm would you say you're trying to mimic any of the living players in this current one, Wilgy?
Nope.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1946

Post by _ExLight »

I'm admittedly too lazy to go read another game, I'm already putting all my effort into trying to solve this one and learning about Tutuu def isn't something I'd consider a priority.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1947

Post by _ExLight »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:02 pm
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:00 pm would you say you're trying to mimic any of the living players in this current one, Wilgy?
Nope.
Why not?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1948

Post by Michelle »

Thanks DrW!

Ex, did you link me the games I asked for? Sorry if you did and I didn't notice. I would like to check something in the morning.

@Wiml please link me please your last 3 scum games and town games
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1949

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:50 pm
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:40 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm
_ExLight wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?
Do you think Michelle doesn't bus (or really try to save) Lime late into D1 when he's actively lolcatting despite obviously knowing she would need to win F3? And that she is fine with him lolcatting instead of distancing for the cred or trying to live D1?

And that she opens up the PoE to push me and remove Epi when she's already winning if she pushes the status quo? Especially when that push on me is based on being annoyed at a hammer that she didn't really have a reason to be frustrated at as a wolf.

And that Lime goes out of his way to defend her early when she's wagoned even though Michelle has a reputation for being easy to read (regardless of if that reputation us actually correct or not)?

I realise this comes off as a bit accusatory but I mean this genuinely because I think she has several strong positives in her favour.
Unknown. I don't know how Michelle approaches teammates. That's a meta call I don't have the data for, nor am I conscious of Michelle's posture during the LC wagon's formation of that 3/3 split. I can review, but that'd have to be later.

I agree with the 2nd point. I don't see Michelle forcing the PoE open based on how seemingly tight it was come Quin yeet. The only thing that'd lead to that would be W Michelle thinking they needed to to hold appearances? But that is unlikely.

I can see W Lime defending a teammate like that tbh.

I agree.
I think she prefers to powerwolf but neither bussing nor really defending Lime Coke there seems questionable.

As for the spew, I could see it at a stretch but I still think Michelle looks better for it.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#1950

Post by _ExLight »

Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:05 pm Thanks DrW!

Ex, did you link me the games I asked for? Sorry if you did and I didn't notice. I would like to check something in the morning.

@Wiml please link me please your last 3 scum games and town games
I missed the request, sorry
What type of games you want?
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