The Syndicate

BoKnows wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:44 pm [VOTE: Martin] aubergine

I guess the game is over, gg

Good game guys

I have no regrets /shrug

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:44 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:41 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:38 pm There is no major vulnerability to my play. If Kyle had been permitted to come to this F3 the game would be over. You are either scum or so willingly blind about what good mafia play means that you're throwing the entire F3 for the sake of it.

Should've explained and solved better

But I guess you don't need to do that as scum.

At least I made a good, honest-to-god, read on Kyle and I was godamm right. If you think that's a misplay for me to read that on D5 and to investigate and push you instead then you should've re-evaluate what scum-hunting is.

Yeah, and saving Kyle would have lost F3 anyway. So there's no world where you're town and played correctly there, you're either mafia or you're town who threw the game with your sick derail of a very simple POE.

You're projecting your own beliefs onto others wrt how LHF a slot is.

BoKnows only voted with you because he thought you were right; not because he scum-read Kyle from what I've read.

Shout out to @falcon45ca and @Quin

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:44 pm Yeah you should vote me if you're scum

the guy who didn't give you free coverage when Alison did

You literally derailed an extremely linear game and turned F5 into a circus then came into F3 and forced me to vote you since there was no way to win with you if you were town, but ok

Thanks for hosting @Sloonei & @juliets

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:45 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:44 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:41 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:38 pm There is no major vulnerability to my play. If Kyle had been permitted to come to this F3 the game would be over. You are either scum or so willingly blind about what good mafia play means that you're throwing the entire F3 for the sake of it.

Should've explained and solved better

But I guess you don't need to do that as scum.

At least I made a good, honest-to-god, read on Kyle and I was godamm right. If you think that's a misplay for me to read that on D5 and to investigate and push you instead then you should've re-evaluate what scum-hunting is.

Yeah, and saving Kyle would have lost F3 anyway. So there's no world where you're town and played correctly there, you're either mafia or you're town who threw the game with your sick derail of a very simple POE.

You're projecting your own beliefs onto others wrt how LHF a slot is.

BoKnows only voted with you because he thought you were right; not because he scum-read Kyle from what I've read.

BK voted with me because he's scum and just won the game mate.

I was willing to re-eval but you sealed the deal so I'm not interested in hearing how I'm a bad player when you walked into F3 and voted a townie in your first post.

Right after stirring up crap about how I'm scum for pushing the mech optimal line which every dead townie in the entire game agreed on and that needed to be cleared before F3.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:44 pm Anyway I've locked my vote on you and I'm town so if you're town you can pat yourself on the back for the worst tunnel on planet earth, scumreading Alison for playing like a robot.

Says the person who did that to kyle

LHF pushing like that

it was terrible imo and I won't be sad to conflict with such a thing again in the future because that is what I believe

GG to @BoKnows though

at least I was right they were trying to anti-spew with the D1 elimination

maybe not bussing but vaguely in the same area

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:48 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:44 pm Anyway I've locked my vote on you and I'm town so if you're town you can pat yourself on the back for the worst tunnel on planet earth, scumreading Alison for playing like a robot.

Says the person who did that to kyle

LHF pushing like that

it was terrible imo and I won't be sad to conflict with such a thing again in the future because that is what I believe

The difference between you and me is that I made that push in F5 and you made that push in F3. I specifically tried to avoid getting Kyle to F3 because I knew Kyle would lose any F3. Construct any theoretically possible F3 with Kyle in it that wins the game, you can't. Kyle self voted because he knew this, only you threw the game anyway by immediately voting me and thus making it impossible for town to win.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:49 pm GG to @BoKnows though

at least I was right they were trying to anti-spew with the D1 elimination

maybe not bussing but vaguely in the same area

When you said that you gave me half a heart attack

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:49 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:48 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:44 pm Anyway I've locked my vote on you and I'm town so if you're town you can pat yourself on the back for the worst tunnel on planet earth, scumreading Alison for playing like a robot.

Says the person who did that to kyle

LHF pushing like that

it was terrible imo and I won't be sad to conflict with such a thing again in the future because that is what I believe

The difference between you and me is that I made that push in F5 and you made that push in F3. I specifically tried to avoid getting Kyle to F3 because I knew Kyle would lose any F3. Construct any theoretically possible F3 with Kyle in it that wins the game, you can't. Kyle self voted because he knew this, only you threw the game anyway by immediately voting me and thus making it impossible for town to win.

Theory implies there's evidence.

There isn't.

Literally just auto Kyle and we can have a proper F3 where we play mafia normally instead of this shit where you force a 1/1/1 wagon and a self vote then immediately copypaste a wall of text and vote a townie in F3. How in the fuck is that optimal play.

BoKnows wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:50 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:49 pm GG to @BoKnows though

at least I was right they were trying to anti-spew with the D1 elimination

maybe not bussing but vaguely in the same area

When you said that you gave me half a heart attack

In retrospect your reaction was pockety

But I got distracted by something I felt was distinctly wrong no matter how its put

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:50 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:49 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:48 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:44 pm Anyway I've locked my vote on you and I'm town so if you're town you can pat yourself on the back for the worst tunnel on planet earth, scumreading Alison for playing like a robot.

Says the person who did that to kyle

LHF pushing like that

it was terrible imo and I won't be sad to conflict with such a thing again in the future because that is what I believe

The difference between you and me is that I made that push in F5 and you made that push in F3. I specifically tried to avoid getting Kyle to F3 because I knew Kyle would lose any F3. Construct any theoretically possible F3 with Kyle in it that wins the game, you can't. Kyle self voted because he knew this, only you threw the game anyway by immediately voting me and thus making it impossible for town to win.

Theory implies there's evidence.

There isn't.

So construct a single F3 where Kyle is town and town wins the game. Go on.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:51 pm

BoKnows wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:50 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:49 pm GG to @BoKnows though

at least I was right they were trying to anti-spew with the D1 elimination

maybe not bussing but vaguely in the same area

When you said that you gave me half a heart attack

In retrospect your reaction was pockety

But I got distracted by something I felt was distinctly wrong no matter how its put

You literally voted a townie 5 minutes in F3 because you don't agree with their idea of mafia theory

I don't mind losing games but if there's one thing that truly annoys me when it comes to mafia it's people who don't understand how to play the game and try to argue with me when I tell them to play properly. Some slots are an absolute liability for town and need to be gotten rid of in a phase where it's safe to do so. And you don't understand that and insist on tunnelling your personal ego reads, all the way to town's demise. There's a reason I didn't immediately vote you when opening the day and you ignored that completely and forced my hand.

The whole damn game wasted because of your ego.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:51 pm Literally just auto Kyle and we can have a proper F3 where we play mafia normally instead of this shit where you force a 1/1/1 wagon and a self vote then immediately copypaste a wall of text and vote a townie in F3. How in the fuck is that optimal play.

Hey you didn't have any solving before F3.

You could've solved then if Kyle was town, but decided not to. Same issue falls with Kyle a bit, but I figured being tunneled for so long like that with "optimal play" was disheartening or demoralizing. Why bother solving if you just get chopped anyways by a person who's overconfident in them surviving F3?

I did solving, and I thought you were scum and there's nothing wrong with that play other than the strict fact that you and I were town. I put more effort into this late game than anyone else I believe, and there isn't any factual wrongness on that.

The only thing about my actions is that they were incorrect. And that's all there is to it. They aren't wrong, and my reads aren't "about rand".

Right before F3*

Please check your pms!

The thread is unlocked.

@BoKnows you played great, really did a good job deepwolfing. Grats on the win, well deserved! @falcon45ca @Quin you two as well

@BoKnows excellent job takin' it home! We set you up for a deepwolf position, but you're the guy who put in the hours and carried it home! MVP

Okay, maybe I got too agitated.

I apologize if I offended you Alison, but I think we just have critical differences in perspective of Fourm Mafia play.

I was perhaps unfairly sensitive to the word use of "wrong" (as the connotation can be associated with more negatively than just facts such as morality), but I'm willing to admit in some aspects that my play was incorrect or suboptimal. I just don't think it was the worst.

Context-deficient observer opinion:

Instant final three votes aren't ideal. But also, there are plenty of conceivable and even realistic worlds wherein Kyle is alive in F3 and wins the game.

We did it for Thomas

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:04 pm @BoKnows you played great, really did a good job deepwolfing. Grats on the win, well deserved! @falcon45ca @Quin you two as well

Thanks Alison, enjoyed playing with you!

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:05 pm @BoKnows excellent job takin' it home! We set you up for a deepwolf position, but you're the guy who put in the hours and carried it home! MVP

Thanks man. You guys set me up to a T. My job was to not fumble the bag.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:09 pm Context-deficient observer opinion:

Instant final three votes aren't ideal. But also, there are plenty of conceivable and even realistic worlds wherein Kyle is alive in F3 and wins the game.

Don't think so.

I'm obligated to vote Kyle in any situation where we're both in F3, so the only way for Kyle to win would be for a loose cannon to make a hero shot. But which F3 involves that? If I got exed at F5, BK just kills Martin and collects auto win from Mikey. If anyone else gets exed BK just kills Mikey and collects auto win from me.

Really good game @Sloonei and @juliets! Thanks for hosting

@BoKnows Your team helped set you up in the beginning, but I think you deserved the win most of all. It was fun after I died and learning you were the last, watching how you subtly push and steer the thread. So many right moves! Well done!

Good game to all the bees as well. We were just outplayed. Remember it’s just a game

Alison-Kyle-BK --> Alison decides Kyle is town and votes BK
Martin-Kyle-BK --> Martin decides Kyle is town and votes BK
Mikey-Kyle-BK --> Mikey decides Kyle is town and votes BK (doesn't appear to me his inactivity was severe enough to presume a non-vote)

If any of these things is so unlikely that it is inconceivable, then that's not the fault of statistical probability -- it's the fault of erroneous town mindset(s).

Deciding a player must be eliminated given some set of inexact evidence (e.g. bad votes or associations in a near-mountainous game) is not precisely "optimal", at least in that it is less than the maximum possible potential of human deduction. It's a by-the-numbers approach, and in a final three that kind of mindset often needs to take a hike.

Granted, there may be/are probably some important contextual details I lack.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:17 pm Alison-Kyle-BK --> Alison decides Kyle is town and votes BK
Martin-Kyle-BK --> Martin decides Kyle is town and votes BK
Mikey-Kyle-BK --> Mikey decides Kyle is town and votes BK (doesn't appear to me his inactivity was severe enough to presume a non-vote)

If any of these things is so unlikely that it is inconceivable, then that's not the fault of statistical probability -- it's the fault of erroneous town mindset(s).

Deciding a player must be eliminated given some set of inexact evidence (e.g. bad votes or associations in a near-mountainous game) is not precisely "optimal", at least in that it is less than the maximum possible potential of human deduction. It's a by-the-numbers approach, and in a final three that kind of mindset often needs to take a hike.

Granted, there may be/are probably some important contextual details I lack.

Martin-Kyle-BK never happens, because BK would shoot Martin in that scenario. I know myself and I can tell you that unless BK seriously outed himself as a wolf at the last second I wouldn't have gotten there on Kyle being townier than him. The only scenario that seems remotely plausible is that Mikey makes the right choice, but Mikey + BK were both way townier than Kyle on mechanics and Mikey most likely makes the obvious choice anyway because he clearly isn't motivated or into the game enough to work really hard for the solve (which he would have to do in order to get there on Mikey).

fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:13 pm Really good game @Sloonei and @juliets! Thanks for hosting

@BoKnows Your team helped set you up in the beginning, but I think you deserved the win most of all. It was fun after I died and learning you were the last, watching how you subtly push and steer the thread. So many right moves! Well done!

Good game to all the bees as well. We were just outplayed. Remember it’s just a game

Thanks finger!

What jay said. The tunnel on kyle was unjustified fmpov and would deserve reevaluation in any case. If you weren't willing to recognize he was being quite towny even during f5, that's on you, sorry.

Especially since obv you'd be brought to f3 projecting a wrong vote lol

Basically, if we take the chance that Mikey and Kyle get there on BK at F3 as being X%, and the chance of Kyle being scum as Y%, then the only way we benefit from not exeing Kyle is if X% of (100 - Y%) is reached, and I think that number is miniscule.

For any reasonable value of X and Y it seems clear to me that the cost-benefit of leaving Kyle alive isn't worth it. He'd have to be town (unlikely by itself consider that he's up against the trust telling guy, the guy who buried mafia D1 and the guy who mafia tried to self-pres on D1), AND he'd have to survive F3, which is also independently unlikely given what I said above. Two things that are unlikely by themselves have to occur together in order for not exeing Kyle to result in a town win, and I'd much rather just go to a standard F3 and take my chances there.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:20 pm What jay said. The tunnel on kyle was unjustified fmpov and would deserve reevaluation in any case. If you weren't willing to recognize he was being quite towny even during f5, that's on you, sorry.

It looks like it would have been a good opportunity for a trustfall.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:20 pm What jay said. The tunnel on kyle was unjustified fmpov and would deserve reevaluation in any case. If you weren't willing to recognize he was being quite towny even during f5, that's on you, sorry.

He was being townie it just didn't matter. The question was not "are you certain that Kyle is scum", I even said a couple of times that I'm considering the possibility he can be town and I have a plan what to do in that scenario. The question is "can the game be won if you leave town Kyle to F3" and that is unlikely enough that it doesn't matter.

I think the game appeared to be lost when both Nanook and Kyle cooperatively sprayed their true civilian nature upon the thread when their deaths had been written in granite (quite prematurely), and the other civilians could not overcome the cognitive biases constructed through the game prior to recognize it and act upon it. It's not an easy thing to do, certainly. But them's the breaks.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:07 pm Okay, maybe I got too agitated.

I apologize if I offended you Alison, but I think we just have critical differences in perspective of Fourm Mafia play.

I was perhaps unfairly sensitive to the word use of "wrong" (as the connotation can be associated with more negatively than just facts such as morality), but I'm willing to admit in some aspects that my play was incorrect or suboptimal. I just don't think it was the worst.

No, you didn't offend me. I don't get mad when I lose games of mafia. I've lost a billion games of mafia, in way more embarrassing ways than this, and I wasn't upset at any of them, because that's the risk you accept when you sign up to a game, that you could get tricked and lose the game. And at the end of the day it's a detective game for 0 stakes. I got annoyed because you accused me of being bad at mafia and having no evidence to support my claims about how to play the game and then snap voting me 5 minutes into F3. I don't think you should be criticizing my ideas about game theory and calling me lazy, unmotivated etc. when I clearly was able and willing to put a lot of effort into solving the game and had specific reasons why I was pushing for an auto on Kyle. Snap voting 5 minutes into F3 is just always a bad play so I felt it was pretty hypocritical of you to criticize my understanding of theory right after doing that.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:22 pmand I think that number is miniscule.

This is kind of what I mean. If the number truly was as minuscule as you believed it to be, then I think that's representative of suboptimal town play before the "who's going to F3" discussion even begins.

Canucks GOAT

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:28 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:22 pmand I think that number is miniscule.

This is kind of what I mean. If the number truly was as minuscule as you believed it to be, then I think that's representative of suboptimal town play before the "who's going to F3" discussion even begins.

I play the cards I'm dealt, not the cards I wish I had. By town consensus everyone thought BK was townie as shit and Kyle was scummy as shit. I know I'm town, so rather than make a gamble on a Kyle read and pray that the town miraculously reverses their opinions and gets there, I decided to clean up the POE and play a standard F3 without any things happening.

The collective understanding that nook/Kyle was in the POE was decided multiple days ago. You're arguing this POE is flawed and that town shouldn't have agreed to it in the first place. Maybe so, I think there was compelling evidence that scum was in those two. But the point is that given that the POE is flawed it's better to break the game out of it by having the host flip Kyle - which I've referred to in previous games as "proving the existence of a deepwolf" - than by praying that town miraculously gets there at F3.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:26 pm I think the game appeared to be lost when both Nanook and Kyle cooperatively sprayed their true civilian nature upon the thread when their deaths had been written in granite (quite prematurely), and the other civilians could not overcome the cognitive biases constructed through the game prior to recognize it and act upon it. It's not an easy thing to do, certainly. But them's the breaks.

This basically. Harsh but true