Take Me Out at the Ballgame! [DAY 3]

[Michelle]

@Long Con

Tell me again I have no reasons for suspecting you

LC does not look better than he did 30 minutes ago.

[VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine

Jay you switched from a tunnel on LC to the CFD on Mac. And after you said

That's not to say I'm reading LC's recent posts as town though. I really don't know what to make of them.

Some portion of my brain tells me a mafioso LC doesn't choose that sarcastic course of defense given that it never convinces JJJ of anything. idfk

Yes I realize there's irony here

This looks like a reevaluation, can you explain your thoughts?

[Michelle]

One more for the Mac express, now boarding

I'm in. [VOTE: Mac] aubergine

The votes of Mac and LC on Mac's wagon are happening in the same time almost at :28. I would like to know the seconds to check the timing.
But I think is a coincidence, not a coordination between them, no matter AI.

[mention]Long Con[/mention] did you previously suspected Mac? What made you vote?

[Michelle]

Fuck you JJJ.

This reaction was for sure for the vote. Why so frustrated?

[Michelle]

Wtf this poll what happened yall mac is still asleep

We lynched sleeping mafioso Mac in Steely Dan on Day 1.

On the other hand if this is wolf!Jay I need to reset all my mafia playstyle and follow him.

[Michelle]

If anyone thinks I'm not town, I'd like to hear it now, because I've not played in over a year and a half and I believe I'm town as fuck right now.

You're all right. What is there in Day 1 that you couldn't have done as a baddie?

You tell me.

But if I had to point to one thing, I don't think I can quite fake the exact progression of reads changes I do as town when I'm scum. It's very hard to fake complete re-assessment like that, and I did that with Michelle.

[Michelle]

linki, lol, and Jay produces an even crappier list.

Can you be specific about why it's crappier than the other crap list?

This is the first post of Epi after Eod 1.
No wtf guys you killed a townie, not any reaction at all.
Just an irritated question to a townie, because Jay's list puts Epi in pretty high position.
It doesn't look townish at all in those circumstancies fmpov.

[Michelle]

I need a break now though. It's Night. I'll be back at some point to do some actual investigative work.

I think we can still own this game. I appreciate the effort being put into it by everyone so far. And it's also been really just amazing to play with you all again (and with Nanook and Michelle for the first time!).

Thanks, it was a joy for me to play with you.
Looking forward for the next game ^_^

[Michelle]

Probably something like two of Epi/Michelle/Nutella/jay/LC

But, like, that’s not even narrow enough to call it a POE.

Someone give Nanook a prize for putting in Poe the lylo players.

noted in a previous post a kind of TR for LC but that was after he joked for a possible save of mafia!LC accidentally.

[Michelle]

I just changed my mind about Michelle. She can be mafia.

Without any solid reason? why so?

[Michelle]

I’ve read it. You’re both stubborn and somewhat pedantic at times and like to talk past each other. That says little to nothing about your alignments.

Above this post that page contains an interaction between Jay and LC. I will reread it later and let it marinate until then in a corner of my head.

It's not looking helpful regarding their AI indeed... Unless I can find something at wording level

[Michelle]

I feel like everyone should have a pretty developed POE pool right now. There are seven not-yous and two of them are no good. Even two solid civilian reads nets a workable reduction, and I think we can do better than that.

Let's go.

SVS
Jay
MP
Michelle
LC
Epi
Nanook

Nut how oscilated your read on me and why?

[Michelle]

My Night 0 peek is Epignosis.

fake claiming cop and surviving is very suspicious.

At any rate, this may show the peek is not on a townie.
Of course Jay was backtracking on the claim, but if the 'peek' were on a townie, Jay would be dead.

Except the mafia is exactly Jay + 1 and this doesn't count at all.

[Michelle]

I doubt Epignosis kills MP when the latter is firmly in his camp and when it's his first game in a while.

Cop hunting may break this logic; I'll have to determine the veracity of such a thing.

This should effectively clear me.

Good -_- A little later Jay posted his 'who would NK M7' test.
Epi self cleared, Jay self cleared, and LC said he would not kill M7
here

At least one of these self cleared/never killing M7, if not 2, are mafia.

Nut self admitting she could NK M7 depending on situation, me openly admitting, and i know I am villager.

Here is a double standard about Jay pushing me but not Nutella for a honest answer and acceppting everyone else who self cleared.
Why didn't you have a honest conclusion for your test [mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] ?

[Epignosis]

The bad news is that my theory was proved incorrect and I do not get to gloat.

The good news is that my theory was proved incorrect and I get the opportunity to get this right, and that I have a 50% chance of being right.

++++

I doubt Epignosis kills MP when the latter is firmly in his camp and when it's his first game in a while.

Cop hunting may break this logic; I'll have to determine the veracity of such a thing.

This should effectively clear me.

Ugh I hate this argument but it's true.

A civilian would be happy to be able to confidently recognize a fellow civilian. nutella here is gloomy for it. It's as if she begrudgingly must remove me from the dwindling pool of possible civilian lynches rather than celebrate what she even admits is the truth.

++++

I want to talk about nutella's interactions with Long Con. I don't wish to quote all of them. They are there if you want to see them.

Page 1 interactions are what I would categorize as "softball." Neither one looks to be making an honest effort to sort the other. It's a token effort, if that.

Page 2:

Why are Dizzy and I wrong about Long Con?

You have five minutes. Answer immediately and with brevity.

Answer me.

Even after all these years I'm not great at reading LC, so he's sorta null for me, but his posts have an independent/unafraid to speak his mind vibe. I don't see a scum agenda.

You could put any name in this sentence, change the pronouns, and it could not be disputed. This post was made Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:41 pm EST.

nutella, assume for a moment that Epignosis doesn't exist. Who are you lynching now?

Ugh probably LC but i don't feel great about it. I just have more reasons to townread everyone else.

This post was made Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:07 pm EST. Folks, that is a differential of twenty-six minutes. nutella went from "I don't see a scum agenda" to Long Con is her second choice for a Day 1 lynch. LC did not post at all in that twenty-six minute window for him to have done anything for her to change her mind over.

That was Day 1. Here is a post from Day 2:

Yeah I'm getting unusually sketchy vibes from a lot of Michelle's posts. This far into the game and I haven't felt the screen scream "Michelle is town" at me yet -- means she's probably not.

[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

you ignored me until now. As expected.

No? I believe I've stated a few times that you were in my poe and that you haven't caused me to townread you

"You haven't caused me to townread you," as though the burden lies completely with Michelle for how nutella views her. Again, she could say this about any one of us and who are we to dispute it?

That's less important than the fact that nutella named LC as bad saying, "I just have more reasons to townread everyone else" Day 1 but on Day 2 to Michelle says "I believe I've stated a few times that you were in my poe and that you haven't caused me to townread you."

++++

Sorry for being obtuse. I guess I still don't see the point of whatever you're doing. Another mysterious Jay exercise.

This isn't related to LC, but I found it noteworthy. Before JJJ can even do whatever it is he is doing, nutella implied it was of little value.

++++

This is why Down With Ketchup is the one true way.

You can have both though!! I regularly post as Jack does, responding to things as I read while missing current thread information, but I still make every effort to read every post in the game so I don't miss anything.


Anyway [VOTE: lc] aubergine since it looks like nanook means it. Still think Michelle is extremely likely the other one.

The tone here is one of resignation rather than exuberance. Note that nutella sees fit to make sure Michelle is the follow up candidate without going into why it is "extremely likely." It's as though nutella senses that LC is caught and is going to be revealed and she needs to attach a name to that revelation.

Just an observation at this point:

In page 3, Long Con is mentioned three times (and LC is mentioned 16). Michelle is mentioned 53 (!) times. I realize there is room for some of those 53 mentions being other people quoting or naming Michelle, but that is an astounding difference.

Here is one of those 53:

I mean, Nut, how did you know Mac is villager when everyone wanted him lynched?

Why didn't you answer at my questions?

Why you expected a wagon to be formed to vote me?

Mac was fairly obvious town imo. Like I said I don't think he would do something like that big case on d1 as scum. Also he wasn't around so the cfd on him was just rude

What questions? Please direct me

No idea what that last thing is about

If Mac was obviously good, then we should see evidence that nutella made an effort Day 1 to persuade others to vote away from Mac.

Twenty-two mentions of MacDougall on page 1 without a single word of defense (other than blindly agreeing with him about me).

The defense of Mac on page 2 consists of:

I want to lynch Mac. People should join me.

His absence may say something.
My read on him was town. But i would like from him to post more, and now I don't have a reason to defend my read.

It is 5AM for him.

I don't get the case on him, he seems like town Mac to me.

Reminding us of his time zone and stating that he "seems" good.

I want to lynch Mac. People should join me.

His absence may say something.
My read on him was town. But i would like from him to post more, and now I don't have a reason to defend my read.

He’s a much better town player than this. I town read his poop flinging in the moment, upon reflection earlier today I read it as NAI, and he’s continued to do all of jackshit since. I don’t get any sense at all that he’s trying to figure out alignments either, which means all he’s done so fling poo. That is more compatible with a scum Day 1 than a town one, considering the state of POE because I believe a lot of other players have town cleared themselves out of Day 1 lynch contention, including you now as well.

I don't think scum Mac puts that much effort into a case on d1.

Which is probably easily disproved (JJJ could do so I think), but whatever. The "I don't think" does not imply "Mac was obviously town."

Wtf this poll what happened yall mac is still asleep

Reminding us again that it's against the rules to lynch people in their sleep.

If Mac flips town I am scrutinizing MP and Nanook for this gross ass cfd.

"If Mac flips town."

That doesn't sound like it was an obvious thing at all. But at the same time, it sounds like nutella already knows the outcome here.

Page four shows nutella attempting to link anybody she can to Long Con.

The obvious problem here is that if you are sure LC is bad with someone else, the right course of action is to lynch the common link first and go from there. This is not happening.

I submit that the mafia team for this ballgame is nutella and Long Con.

I will explore the latter when opportunity presents itself.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[Long Con]

One more for the Mac express, now boarding

I'm in. [VOTE: Mac] aubergine

The votes of Mac and LC on Mac's wagon are happening in the same time almost at :28. I would like to know the seconds to check the timing.
But I think is a coincidence, not a coordination between them, no matter AI.

@Long Con did you previously suspected Mac? What made you vote?

Self-preservation.

[Long Con]

I submit that the mafia team for this ballgame is nutella and Long Con.

I will explore the latter when opportunity presents itself.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Well, you're probably half-right. [VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[Epignosis]

I submit that the mafia team for this ballgame is nutella and Long Con.

I will explore the latter when opportunity presents itself.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Well, you're probably half-right. [VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Who is the other half?

[Epignosis]

Michelle and nutella are my call for the last baddies.

I see.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Here is a double standard about Jay pushing me but not Nutella for a honest answer and acceppting everyone else who self cleared.
Why didn't you have a honest conclusion for your test JaggedJimmyJay ?

This is a loaded question. You've crammed "dishonest" into the sentence based upon a subjective interpretation of how my take on nutella compared with my take on you. That's "why me?" junk and means nothing. Numerous times in this game have you made accusations that I found poorly-enough conceived that I have doubted their sincerity. This is another one.

You keep calling it a "test"; I'm not sure why. I asked a question and people answered the question. nutella's answer looked more honest to me than yours did. I'm about to begin digging and I'll see how I feel.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My Night 0 peek is Epignosis.

fake claiming cop and surviving is very suspicious.

At any rate, this may show the peek is not on a townie.
Of course Jay was backtracking on the claim, but if the 'peek' were on a townie, Jay would be dead.

Except the mafia is exactly Jay + 1 and this doesn't count at all.

And here's another one. It's hard to believe that you buy this stuff.

We now know we're in Setup #3, which features a mafia role that is incompatible with the cop role. The mafia knew all along that there is no cop, and so any hunting mechanisms associated with the cop are rendered moot.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Excuse me, setup C rather than 3.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Epi's case for nutella is a compelling one. I see it as compelling in isolation regardless of Long Con's association or non. I have to step away for a moment for another fucking Zoom meeting, but I'll expand quickly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Page 2:

Why are Dizzy and I wrong about Long Con?

You have five minutes. Answer immediately and with brevity.

Answer me.

Even after all these years I'm not great at reading LC, so he's sorta null for me, but his posts have an independent/unafraid to speak his mind vibe. I don't see a scum agenda.

You could put any name in this sentence, change the pronouns, and it could not be disputed. This post was made Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:41 pm EST.

nutella, assume for a moment that Epignosis doesn't exist. Who are you lynching now?

Ugh probably LC but i don't feel great about it. I just have more reasons to townread everyone else.

This post was made Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:07 pm EST. Folks, that is a differential of twenty-six minutes. nutella went from "I don't see a scum agenda" to Long Con is her second choice for a Day 1 lynch. LC did not post at all in that twenty-six minute window for him to have done anything for her to change her mind over.

This point is a good one. Epi's intention here is to propose a relationship between nutella and LC, and I think that's valid enough. Still, I don't care for this progression regardless of Long Con. Even with the words "not great at reading" and "sorta null", the overall message of the former post here is positive: "unafraid to speak his mind" and "doesn't see a scum agenda". When nutella had a stance of some sort, it was a positive one. There's no negative commentary here.

So when in the latter post she is willing to call him the lynchee on-deck (given the time frame and contexts Epignosis highlighted), that is a concern.

If Mac was obviously good, then we should see evidence that nutella made an effort Day 1 to persuade others to vote away from Mac.

Twenty-two mentions of MacDougall on page 1 without a single word of defense (other than blindly agreeing with him about me).

The defense of Mac on page 2 consists of:

I want to lynch Mac. People should join me.

His absence may say something.
My read on him was town. But i would like from him to post more, and now I don't have a reason to defend my read.

It is 5AM for him.

I don't get the case on him, he seems like town Mac to me.

Reminding us of his time zone and stating that he "seems" good.

I want to lynch Mac. People should join me.

His absence may say something.
My read on him was town. But i would like from him to post more, and now I don't have a reason to defend my read.

He’s a much better town player than this. I town read his poop flinging in the moment, upon reflection earlier today I read it as NAI, and he’s continued to do all of jackshit since. I don’t get any sense at all that he’s trying to figure out alignments either, which means all he’s done so fling poo. That is more compatible with a scum Day 1 than a town one, considering the state of POE because I believe a lot of other players have town cleared themselves out of Day 1 lynch contention, including you now as well.

I don't think scum Mac puts that much effort into a case on d1.

Which is probably easily disproved (JJJ could do so I think), but whatever. The "I don't think" does not imply "Mac was obviously town."

JJJ probably could do so, yes. I'll make a quick effort at it when I can. This reminds me of one of my very first takes when I joined the game: that Mac's case for Dizzy/Epi was not a good case. nutella's 1) support for that case and 2) support for Mac in light of that case are dubious. Mac was honest and flipped civilian; so it goes. I still don't know why those were "good points" though, and I absolutely don't buy the assertion that he wouldn't make a case like that as a mafioso. That's frankly absurd.

[Michelle]

My Night 0 peek is Epignosis.

fake claiming cop and surviving is very suspicious.

At any rate, this may show the peek is not on a townie.
Of course Jay was backtracking on the claim, but if the 'peek' were on a townie, Jay would be dead.

Except the mafia is exactly Jay + 1 and this doesn't count at all.

And here's another one. It's hard to believe that you buy this stuff.

We now know we're in Setup #3, which features a mafia role that is incompatible with the cop role. The mafia knew all along that there is no cop, and so any hunting mechanisms associated with the cop are rendered moot.

You are right. I didn't think at it.
Who never believed Nanook's claim, btw? Just mafia knew the claim is fake.

[Michelle]

Excuse me, setup C rather than 3.

got it.

[Epignosis]

Excuse me, setup C rather than 3.

How do you know it's C rather than 3?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Excuse me, setup C rather than 3.

How do you know it's C rather than 3?

Nanook told us MP was killed by a strongman. Presumably Nanook protected MP on Night 1 and it didn't work. Only C has a strongman.

[Epignosis]

Ah.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Long Con[/mention] please describe your mindset when you were confronted with Nanook's claim of a red check on you. Just tell me what you thought of it and how you decided your next course of action.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Which is probably easily disproved (JJJ could do so I think), but whatever. The "I don't think" does not imply "Mac was obviously town."

JJJ probably could do so, yes. I'll make a quick effort at it when I can. This reminds me of one of my very first takes when I joined the game: that Mac's case for Dizzy/Epi was not a good case. nutella's 1) support for that case and 2) support for Mac in light of that case are dubious. Mac was honest and flipped civilian; so it goes. I still don't know why those were "good points" though, and I absolutely don't buy the assertion that he wouldn't make a case like that as a mafioso. That's frankly absurd.

I don't want to spend a great deal of time on this. I'll reference one game in which Mac and nutella were mafia together (alongside myself), the season 6 scrimmage.

Mac's posts from the scrimmage -- you'll note Day 0/1 parallels featuring Mac tying two players together as teammates. He didn't produce a case of the specific volume (by decibels) seen in this game's Dizzy/Epi case, but he did still post at least one case -- tying RDW and I together.

I think it's evident in any event that such a case is within Mac's mafia range. I don't have much doubt about that at all.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I submit that the mafia team for this ballgame is nutella and Long Con.

I will explore the latter when opportunity presents itself.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Well, you're probably half-right. [VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Tell me why you feel Michelle is a mafioso.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Who never believed Nanook's claim, btw? Just mafia knew the claim is fake.

That's something I mean to look into. Now that we are fully affirmed the mafia knew all along there was no cop, that may be insightful with respect to how people responded to Nanook.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And it may lend additional credence to Nanook's own reception of events, because he knew before any other civilians that there is no cop.

[Epignosis]

Who never believed Nanook's claim, btw? Just mafia knew the claim is fake.

That's something I mean to look into. Now that we are fully affirmed the mafia knew all along there was no cop, that may be insightful with respect to how people responded to Nanook.

I never even considered that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If there's someone out there that should be countering Nanook and isn't, I'm going to be really mad.

At the risk of incurring your wrath for my potential ignorance, if Nanook isn't the cop, wouldn't it be prudent to say whom he did check and what the result was? Or did I miss it?

I don't entirely follow your question. It makes sense if I convert "isn't" to "is". If so, then it would be prudent of him to say that. He claimed a Night 0 civilian check on MP and has not claimed otherwise conclusively.

If you did mean "isn't", I'd ask that you try to rephrase.

"is"

I'm sorry.

This was, as far as I can tell, Epi's first response to Nanook's claim. This foreshadows the suspicions that would erupt into his Night 2, on the basis of Nanook not providing a clear Night 1 check/my not demanding one etc. If I ask myself: "did Epi know there was no cop, and therefore set this up to shit on a civilian he knew to be fake claiming?" -- the content of Night 2 supports such a notion, but Nanook's immediate death refutes it. Whatever angle a mafioso Epi may have arranged for himself in such a universe is eliminated the moment he elects to murk the civilian fake claimer.

If Epi is a mafioso, none of this shit seems necessary. He was in good shape to just walk through another civilian lynch anyway -- at least two of the other premier suspects (Michelle, Long Con, nutella) would be civilians.

So I don't see it.

[nutella]

Epi, you're wrong about me dude. Keep doing research on the others, I think we can get there. I'm town and want to get this right as much as you do, but if I'm lynched we lose. Responses in purple.

The bad news is that my theory was proved incorrect and I do not get to gloat.

The good news is that my theory was proved incorrect and I get the opportunity to get this right, and that I have a 50% chance of being right.

++++

I doubt Epignosis kills MP when the latter is firmly in his camp and when it's his first game in a while.

Cop hunting may break this logic; I'll have to determine the veracity of such a thing.

This should effectively clear me.

Ugh I hate this argument but it's true.

A civilian would be happy to be able to confidently recognize a fellow civilian. nutella here is gloomy for it. It's as if she begrudgingly must remove me from the dwindling pool of possible civilian lynches rather than celebrate what she even admits is the truth.

You misunderstand. I hate the argument because it's borderline angleshooty/out-of-game. It's not a good reason to remove someone from a POE. I had suspected you for a while, and now I townread you for other reasons so this is kind of moot but at the time that was the main reason to remove you from the POE and it was lame.

++++

I want to talk about nutella's interactions with Long Con. I don't wish to quote all of them. They are there if you want to see them.

Page 1 interactions are what I would categorize as "softball." Neither one looks to be making an honest effort to sort the other. It's a token effort, if that.

Page 2:

Why are Dizzy and I wrong about Long Con?

You have five minutes. Answer immediately and with brevity.

Answer me.

Even after all these years I'm not great at reading LC, so he's sorta null for me, but his posts have an independent/unafraid to speak his mind vibe. I don't see a scum agenda.

You could put any name in this sentence, change the pronouns, and it could not be disputed. This post was made Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:41 pm EST.

Not true, I specifically have known LC longer than anyone else in this game and specifically have a worse record of reading him than most other players.

nutella, assume for a moment that Epignosis doesn't exist. Who are you lynching now?

Ugh probably LC but i don't feel great about it. I just have more reasons to townread everyone else.

This post was made Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:07 pm EST. Folks, that is a differential of twenty-six minutes. nutella went from "I don't see a scum agenda" to Long Con is her second choice for a Day 1 lynch. LC did not post at all in that twenty-six minute window for him to have done anything for her to change her mind over.

I was townreading pretty much everyone but you at that point. He didn't stand out and therefore was a candidate.

That was Day 1. Here is a post from Day 2:

Yeah I'm getting unusually sketchy vibes from a lot of Michelle's posts. This far into the game and I haven't felt the screen scream "Michelle is town" at me yet -- means she's probably not.

[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

you ignored me until now. As expected.

No? I believe I've stated a few times that you were in my poe and that you haven't caused me to townread you

"You haven't caused me to townread you," as though the burden lies completely with Michelle for how nutella views her. Again, she could say this about any one of us and who are we to dispute it?

That's less important than the fact that nutella named LC as bad saying, "I just have more reasons to townread everyone else" Day 1 but on Day 2 to Michelle says "I believe I've stated a few times that you were in my poe and that you haven't caused me to townread you."

If you look at other games I've played with Michelle, this is a specific way that I treat her. Maybe it's unfair, but I have a particular way of spotting Michelle's town meta that has proved accurate in the past. If I don't find her townieness to be obvious, she is a candidate by default.
++++

Sorry for being obtuse. I guess I still don't see the point of whatever you're doing. Another mysterious Jay exercise.

This isn't related to LC, but I found it noteworthy. Before JJJ can even do whatever it is he is doing, nutella implied it was of little value.

I was so confused at that whole thing. I legitimately did not understand what he was doing.
++++

This is why Down With Ketchup is the one true way.

You can have both though!! I regularly post as Jack does, responding to things as I read while missing current thread information, but I still make every effort to read every post in the game so I don't miss anything.


Anyway [VOTE: lc] aubergine since it looks like nanook means it. Still think Michelle is extremely likely the other one.

The tone here is one of resignation rather than exuberance. Note that nutella sees fit to make sure Michelle is the follow up candidate without going into why it is "extremely likely." It's as though nutella senses that LC is caught and is going to be revealed and she needs to attach a name to that revelation.

Not resignation. I saw the cop claim, figured that would be the lynch because even if LC wasn't my top suspect, if there was a red peek on him that makes things pretty clear cut. Now we know there was no peek. But at the time I had no reason not to believe Nanook. Whereas the mafia would since they would have already known there wasn't really a cop, right?

I mean, it'll be funny if LC was mafia all along and Nanook just guessed it

Just an observation at this point:

In page 3, Long Con is mentioned three times (and LC is mentioned 16). Michelle is mentioned 53 (!) times. I realize there is room for some of those 53 mentions being other people quoting or naming Michelle, but that is an astounding difference.

Here is one of those 53:

I mean, Nut, how did you know Mac is villager when everyone wanted him lynched?

Why didn't you answer at my questions?

Why you expected a wagon to be formed to vote me?

Mac was fairly obvious town imo. Like I said I don't think he would do something like that big case on d1 as scum. Also he wasn't around so the cfd on him was just rude

What questions? Please direct me

No idea what that last thing is about

If Mac was obviously good, then we should see evidence that nutella made an effort Day 1 to persuade others to vote away from Mac.

No, that's ridiculous. I didn't expect people to suddenly start voting Mac in the last three minutes of the phase. At no point did I even think that was remotely likely until it was too late, so I had no opportunity to try to prevent it.

Twenty-two mentions of MacDougall on page 1 without a single word of defense (other than blindly agreeing with him about me).

The defense of Mac on page 2 consists of:

I want to lynch Mac. People should join me.

His absence may say something.
My read on him was town. But i would like from him to post more, and now I don't have a reason to defend my read.

It is 5AM for him.

I don't get the case on him, he seems like town Mac to me.

Is this not enough of an indication that I wasn't anywhere near thinking lynching Mac was a good idea??

Reminding us of his time zone and stating that he "seems" good.

I want to lynch Mac. People should join me.

His absence may say something.
My read on him was town. But i would like from him to post more, and now I don't have a reason to defend my read.

He’s a much better town player than this. I town read his poop flinging in the moment, upon reflection earlier today I read it as NAI, and he’s continued to do all of jackshit since. I don’t get any sense at all that he’s trying to figure out alignments either, which means all he’s done so fling poo. That is more compatible with a scum Day 1 than a town one, considering the state of POE because I believe a lot of other players have town cleared themselves out of Day 1 lynch contention, including you now as well.

I don't think scum Mac puts that much effort into a case on d1.

Which is probably easily disproved (JJJ could do so I think), but whatever. The "I don't think" does not imply "Mac was obviously town."

Wtf this poll what happened yall mac is still asleep

Reminding us again that it's against the rules to lynch people in their sleep.

If Mac flips town I am scrutinizing MP and Nanook for this gross ass cfd.

"If Mac flips town."

That doesn't sound like it was an obvious thing at all. But at the same time, it sounds like nutella already knows the outcome here.

Alright, maybe I should have been more adamant about my town read of Mac before, because yeah I find him fairly easy to read and was pretty sure he'd flip town. No TMI, just strong gut. I had no time during the crazy last few minutes to even react to the vote changes.

Page four shows nutella attempting to link anybody she can to Long Con.

The obvious problem here is that if you are sure LC is bad with someone else, the right course of action is to lynch the common link first and go from there. This is not happening.

I think my suspicion of LC has been on about equal ground with my suspicion of Michelle for most of the game, and I would have liked for either of them to emerge as the main wagon on D2 but for whatever reason that didn't happen, through some miscalculations a few of us reached the conclusion that Jack was the best choice (once again while he wasn't even around) and I found that plausible enough to go along with. Yeah, I haven't fought hard to push a wagon on either LC or Michelle, I guess I've just lacked confidence. And I still do, because I haven't figured out which permutation of two of LC/Jay/Michelle is most likely, so there isn't one "common link" that gives me the best chance of being right. I'm not there yet.

I submit that the mafia team for this ballgame is nutella and Long Con.

I will explore the latter when opportunity presents itself.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Good fight, LC.

This is exciting

Long Con knew Nanook's red check on him was fake. That much appears to be irrefutable. These were his responses to the check, and to the developing thread motion emerging from that check.

There are, of course, two potential explanations:

1) Long Con is a civilian, so the red check cannot be real.

2) Long Con is a mafioso, so he knows there is no cop to check him.

I think there's at least one avenue supporting #2: Long Con's response was total calm. He was unworried; indeed he was Michael Jackson munching popcorn. A mafioso who knows the truth has the objective space to consider why a civilian might do what Nanook did -- and then respond accordingly. He's trying to provoke responses, so I'm going to need to handle this a particular way.

A civilian can technically still theorize innocent motivations for Nanook to fake that check, but such a theory has to completely supersede any instinctive what the fuck? that's bullshit responses that may otherwise emerge. I'll also note that when confronted with lesser "offenses" at other portions of the game (e.g. Dizzy's under-explained suspicion of him), his response was more along the lines of what the fuck? that's bullshit.

It's a curious handling of Nanook, and I could see it as bad.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Separately: I am concerned that Long Con has jumped directly into the "Michelle and nutella are the team" theory as though he is mechanically forced to do so -- as though Epignosis and I are both cleared for him. That's hard to believe, especially given LC's oft-stated suspicions of the slot I occupy.

[Epignosis]

Michelle's response to Nanook's lie is rife with indignation and "what the fuck is this?"

Michelle is fine to kill today

No it's not!

If it’s Michelle lemme know so I can get straight to interactive analysis

It's obviously not me. Your question is bad because he would use other words for a lock scum.

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

Again? You sure lack imagination sir.

Telling me I lack imagination is an unexpected way of putting this, but it doesn't sound phony.

But rather than be content to yell at people over the lie, Michelle offers this immediately after. You can almost hear the keyboard clacking away (or the phone screen taking a beating):

Grats guys, you are doing again the same thing you did in the previous game with 3 villagers in a row. Be proud of it.
I get now why they gave up, you are too selfish to accept you are wrong.


Let's see my wagon:
Epi said he will give 33% in this game, he gives 5%. Ugly way of playing no matter AI.

Nanook was just sheeping one or another, i don't understand this. If he thinks his red peek solves the game he is plain wrong because mafia is a team and in this game distancing is the key. Unless everyone talks in the game. But you all are ok with players who are answering with one word at questions and admire this nonsense. If they are mafia, you have zero content to work with.

Jay is an easy poster so high activity is not AI and he's imagining tests and PoEs. Town had bad results from his contribution in the games we played together. I don't trust him no matter AI. He is a genius mafia, good for him. Idk why, but I was town reading him when he subbed in the game. Maybe because he had a nice energy. I am not sure about this. His so called test is a trap and he choose to pick up my answer to push me.
Logic, any mafia would say no. I said yes. So what? And then he has like a revelation and said I am guilty. Lame

Nutella pretends to know to read me but she can't. Or she don't want to. We talked too much already.

At least one of this 4 is wolf, imo.
But I may be wrong.
If every single one is villager, then this town have a problem and we will loose this game.

I don't want to post more, I am tired to defend myself and I am not playing for this. My vote stays on Jack, his approach was bad. His reads looked fabricated and Svs's push on me in day 1 was a tunnel a villager should not make.

I may not come back until Eod not because I give up but because this game is depressing.

Good bye.

Her response about Nanook's lie makes very little sense coming from someone who knows it's a lie. Michelle basically shits on the entire civilian faction here.

Bear in mind, right after Nanook changed his lie to Long Con, he commented:

What if I told you my red was long con

Also I kinda think michelle is a villager tbh but I don't wanna say why (it isn't a check)

[nutella]

A civilian can technically still theorize innocent motivations for Nanook to fake that check, but such a theory has to completely supersede any instinctive what the fuck? that's bullshit responses that may otherwise emerge. I'll also note that when confronted with lesser "offenses" at other portions of the game (e.g. Dizzy's under-explained suspicion of him), his response was more along the lines of what the fuck? that's bullshit.

It's a curious handling of Nanook, and I could see it as bad.

Hmm yeah that's a good point. He seemed to sense that Nanook was town fishing for reactions, rather than immediately flipping out on Nanook for fake-claiming. I can imagine LC just being that perceptive and figuring that getting reactions from it is worthwhile, but my instinct is that he didn't have the natural reaction a townie would have in that situation.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If it’s Michelle lemme know so I can get straight to interactive analysis

It's obviously not me. Your question is bad because he would use other words for a lock scum.

I think this was Michelle's first response to Nanook suggesting he had a red check before he revealed it to be Long Con. The second sentence is a problem for me.

He would use other words if he had me as a lock scum check.

This can be in alignment with I know there isn't even a cop in this game.

Nanook was just sheeping one or another, i don't understand this. If he thinks his red peek solves the game he is plain wrong because mafia is a team and in this game distancing is the key. Unless everyone talks in the game. But you all are ok with players who are answering with one word at questions and admire this nonsense. If they are mafia, you have zero content to work with.

This came in response to Nanook saying Michelle is fine to kill today. I find this more difficult to interpret. As of this point she still didn't know who Nanook's claimed red check was on, and so the mindset of this post confuses me. That doesn't have to mean it's bad, but I don't understand it.

LC posted my favorite gif, he deserves my vote too
[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

This was her response after Nanook claimed it was Long Con. I refer back to the first post I mention here: "he would use other words for lock scum". If he did use the "other words" here, I don't know what they were. But she was happy enough to go along.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

/

If I'm understanding the matrix correctly Jay is lying.


Shit just got spicy.

nutella tell me about this.

This was when I fake-claimed cop. You knew I was lying per the matrix. How?

[nutella]

/

If I'm understanding the matrix correctly Jay is lying.


Shit just got spicy.

nutella tell me about this.

This was when I fake-claimed cop. You knew I was lying per the matrix. How?

lol, that was just spice.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

/

If I'm understanding the matrix correctly Jay is lying.


Shit just got spicy.

nutella tell me about this.

This was when I fake-claimed cop. You knew I was lying per the matrix. How?

lol, that was just spice.

Nah I need more. What spice?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I’d probably kill MP if I thought he was a PR, tbh.

Not to channel jack but I’m not dying today.

I'm open to that if you give me a reason.

Wee woo wee woo

I think I follow.

There's some extra crucial information associated with the wees and the woos though.

There sure is

Wat

This appears to be nutella's first response to Nanook suggesting he is the cop ("wee woo wee woo"). Confusion. Okay.

I feel like everyone should have a pretty developed POE pool right now. There are seven not-yous and two of them are no good. Even two solid civilian reads nets a workable reduction, and I think we can do better than that.

Let's go.

SVS
Jay
MP
Michelle
LC
Epi
Nanook

Michelle this was sometime after you asked me that. I guess I never responded to you directly, I apologize for that, but if you have read my posts you should have some idea of my reads. To update this a bit, Nanook is tentatively moved up for the claim, Epi is tentatively moved up for probably not killing MP, and the SVS/Jack slot moved down a bit for poe reasons and something that vaguely pinged me when he came into the thread last night. That leaves you and LC as the most likely scum in my eyes.

Her next acknowledgement of Nanook is here, about 17 hours later. She seems to have gathered the claim in that time frame, which is fine.

This is why Down With Ketchup is the one true way.

You can have both though!! I regularly post as Jack does, responding to things as I read while missing current thread information, but I still make every effort to read every post in the game so I don't miss anything.


Anyway [VOTE: lc] aubergine since it looks like nanook means it. Still think Michelle is extremely likely the other one.

Then her first response to Nanook's fake check on Long Con. I don't think this looks "bad" from the perspective that she should know there is no check at all if she is a mafioso. There's room for it to be capitalizing. These responses are pretty safe overall. They don't scream mafia at me; I wouldn't say they can't be.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

[Michelle]

As of this point she still didn't know who Nanook's claimed red check was on, and so the mindset of this post confuses me. That doesn't have to mean it's bad, but I don't understand it.

Jay, i knew it can't be me because I am villager.
And i explained, me being the top wagon and pushed in that moment by every active player itt, Nanook would word that differently, idk how, but not so general.
It was simple a feminine intuition tbh if you want to give it a name.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

/

If I'm understanding the matrix correctly Jay is lying.


Shit just got spicy.

nutella tell me about this.

This was when I fake-claimed cop. You knew I was lying per the matrix. How?

lol, that was just spice.

Nah I need more. What spice?

When you said this initially, I facepalmed internally because I thought you might be outing yourself as a power role when I was trying to provide cover. Now it's clear you can't be a civilian power role, so yanno.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

As of this point she still didn't know who Nanook's claimed red check was on, and so the mindset of this post confuses me. That doesn't have to mean it's bad, but I don't understand it.

Jay, i knew it can't be me because I am villager.
And i explained, me being the top wagon and pushed in that moment by every active player itt, Nanook would word that differently, idk how, but not so general.
It was simple a feminine intuition tbh if you want to give it a name.

Who do you think is mafia?

[nutella]

/

If I'm understanding the matrix correctly Jay is lying.


Shit just got spicy.

nutella tell me about this.

This was when I fake-claimed cop. You knew I was lying per the matrix. How?

lol, that was just spice.

Nah I need more. What spice?

Idk, I wanted to see what you'd say. I was but a clueless vanilla who wanted to have some fun with the setup. With all that epistemological stuff I was talking about, I thought having a dispute like that might flush out something to work with.