[END] Fight Club Mafia

[timmer]

Canucklehead. She replaced FH who was a complete no-show in the game for days. That makes the entire early phase of the game a bit of a wash. One thing I notice reading through Canuckle's posts is a strong tendency towards fluff posts. Lots of "IMMA FIGHT! ROAR!" type goofiness, a few questions on the game's mechanics early on, but there really isn't a ton of meat to anything she's posted. In fact, Canuckle has no major posts about finding Tyler of anything, until WABAM, this monster:

Well golly. That was a heavy reading load, and my semester hasn't even started yet.

Because I am supposed to be constructing a syllabus right now from which I will impart knowledge to the future leaders of America, and not playing mafia, I am going to be very brief here and just touch on my thoughts of some of the names that are being tossed around and the debates that are going on:

SVS/llama: this back and forth reads like it contains a lot of tension from a history of playing together. While I think (?) I agree more with SVS's POV on the issues discussed, that doesn't actually make me think llama is bad. I don't agree neccessarily with his thoughts on who Tyler is/was likely to recruit, I also don't really think holding those theories makes him likely to be bad. I don't know llama's style at all, but I would imagine that a baddie who was pushed so hard on a contentious issue would only put up a facade of a fight before acquiesing to the pressure and backing down in order to seem more "reasonable"/less lynch worthy. Llama's stubborness, and the increasing clarity with which he defins and defends his position actually make me think he's probably civ (though still possibly misguided in holding on to his recruitment theory)

Long Con/llama: I can't remember when LC voted for Dom, but I think it was fairly early?? (Please correct me if I'm wrong). I agree with many that it was a bit of a weak rationale for a vote, and seemed quite unlike LC...but I'm not sure I'm ready to vote for him yet. I don't usually find his posting or play style to be all that different from game to game regardless of his alignment, so his vociferous engagement with llama doesn't ping me as out of the ordinary. The Dom vote is weird, but I think there are other weirder things going on in the thread. As for llama, see above. I'm actually not suspicious of him, and think his exchange with LC is getting heated just because it seems to be two vocal, stubborn, and self-consciously incendiary players butting heads for the first time. If it comes down to a LC/llama tie-breaker, I'd throw my vote at LC, but I hope I don't have to.

Where I DO think I might want to throw a vote is at Vomps. I think Timmer's post was really interesting, and while I struggle to think why Tyler would recruit such a seemingly unpredictable and non-participatory player, the voting record is odd. Somewhat paradoxically, however, I ALSO find myself inclined to be a little suspicious of Timmer's sudden push for Vomps. Perhaps a case concocted to try and distract the thread from the other battles that are raging and get people's attention onto someone who, as a low poster and apparent wild card, might be an easy target and easy vote for those who are skimming through??

Long story short, I'm really really divided about Timmer/Vomps, and will probably come down on one side or another of that fence for today's vote.

That's one hell of a post for someone who hasn't said anything about anything but jokes and fights.

Plus, interesting note: since Day 8 Canuckle has had 9 posts in this game. She's had 23 in Misfits Mafia.

Considering that huge post above, I could see Canuckle being a recruit around night 7. She's a high fight level after winning a fight and suddenly there's that monster post but not much else.

I'd bet Canuckle is a recruit, but I give her no chance at being Tyler, I don't think Alex would have allowed such a role to be dormant for the first 3 days of the game.

[timmer]

Next up in hedgeowl. Reading through the early phase of the game yields nothing of interest, the only ping I had had was the early "what hometown?" post but that was explained pretty solidly, I think.

Also, hedge owl never shared a fight club with DH and I stand by my hunch that Tyler has to be in the same fight club to recruit someone, so imo there is virtually no chance of hedge being Tyler.

And finally, reading through hedge's posts in phase two of the game, there is a lot of solid posting there, lots of on-topic discussion etc. I really don't get any pings from hedge.

[timmer]

I'll cover two people here, because they will be brief.

First, juliets. there is no content in the early part of the game, and her content in phase two has been on point and on topic. I see no reason to consider juliets as a recruit or as Tyler.

Second, keterman. His very big outbursts about Long Con were interesting but like I've said, I don't consider them a legit baddie move at this time, and plus, he can't defend today so he's moot anyway.

[timmer]

Kyle is a mixed bag for me. There isn't much in his posts that is pingy. He suspected bullz for a time, but I can't knock him for that, I did, too. Really, the only thing that is semi-pingy is his vote for Long Con.

i see... *nods*

in any case, i need to vote tonight. i don't see myself voting boogs any more because his explanation felt sincere to me. i'm likely to vote for LC because of that selective quoting thing. my instincts tell me that that is a baddie-like thing to do.

I'm going to be honest here, guys. While I wholeheartedly supported the case against Long Con, there is just something about Kyle's vote. To only mention the selective quoting part in explaining why he would vote Long Con seems a bit weak to me, because that was really the weaker link in that case. Kyle voted 4th for Long Con which imo is roughly the point where baddie teammates tend to start piling on in a lynch.

I'll put kyle somewhere in the middle of the pack. His vote for Long Con doesn't feel right, but that's kind of only one thing.

[timmer]

Mister Rearranger is next. This is a tough one. For a long time in the game he was very active, but the majority of his posts are about fights and game mechanics. But then, in the first few days that's kind of all we all had to talk about. In the latter phase of the game, he did start to lean towards suspecting Long Con, and voted LC third, which would be a bit ballsy for a teammate to do, though it's not unheard of.

Basically, with MR, I get a weird sense that he could be bad, but I can't really point my finger at any one thing, so he's at worst in the middle of the pack for me right now, and likely even not as bad as that.

[timmer]

Okay, russitifinko definitely falls into the more suspect side of this game for me.

Here are three posts:

August 5th:

I am anti-lynching Vomps right now. I probably would've thought the same way before the Hobbit. I know you all don't know it yet, because I have been awful about posting it, but Vomps was one of the most engaged players in that game. He got more riddles right than anyone while he was alive, and was civ, but when he was lynched people accused him of not trying/participating.

My point here is that he can be very engaged and still be civ, maybe even more so than as a baddie. However, I don't blame you for thinking this way, since I had access to related info that you didn't.

I also don't love the idea of killing Vomps because he's on point, as you said. As long as I've been on the site, people have been bemoaning Vomps' perceived disinterest. I think punishing him for trying will only force him to post very little and act wacky all the time, which is ultimately counterproductive.

I urge others not to vote Vomps.

August 6th:

Voting....Canucklehead. Because (s)he really really really wants to fight. I also sympathize with Elo's plea for violence, and anytime Vomps garners more support I would vote him, since he's said he wants to as well and is being overlooked (and I don't think he's bad).

August 8th:

Will be busy graduating tomorrow! Voting Vomps. Only someone who's been recruited would say they wouldn't mind being recruited.

Sorry man, but those don't go together at all.

Also, heavy support for Long Con's fight theory: (truncated)

Ok, here is Long Con's Grand Unified Theory Of How Fighting Works. From what I've read, a lot of people know some things about fighting, so I thought over what I know about it, and here's my theory. There are several elements that seem to affect fights. I hope I'm allowed to talk about them all, but from what I have seen, the 'possibly secret' parts have already been pretty well discussed.

And that's my theory.

I like this theory and motion that we accept it as standard canon. I will say that, based on my experience, it's weird to me that people are denying knowing at all why they won. It certainly wasn't all spelled out for me, but very bug hints were given. So I'e got my eye on Sorsha now.

Also sort of supportive of Long Con:

This idea also fits with what LC was saying about MP rewarding active players. I think it's super plausible. Could be related to posting, voting, or whatever else MP can come up with.

One thing, though: DH was bad, right? So the police killing him wouldn't have anything to do with the baddies earning an NK, unless I'm misunderstanding you.

The voting flip on Vomps, plus support for Long Con = probably baddie, imo.

[timmer]

Well, I had hoped to get through everyone, but I'm tired now and need to hit the sack.

[Canucklehead]

Canucklehead. She replaced FH who was a complete no-show in the game for days. That makes the entire early phase of the game a bit of a wash. One thing I notice reading through Canuckle's posts is a strong tendency towards fluff posts. Lots of "IMMA FIGHT! ROAR!" type goofiness, a few questions on the game's mechanics early on, but there really isn't a ton of meat to anything she's posted. In fact, Canuckle has no major posts about finding Tyler of anything, until WABAM, this monster:

*snip*

That's one hell of a post for someone who hasn't said anything about anything but jokes and fights.

Plus, interesting note: since Day 8 Canuckle has had 9 posts in this game. She's had 23 in Misfits Mafia.

Considering that huge post above, I could see Canuckle being a recruit around night 7. She's a high fight level after winning a fight and suddenly there's that monster post but not much else.

I'd bet Canuckle is a recruit, but I give her no chance at being Tyler, I don't think Alex would have allowed such a role to be dormant for the first 3 days of the game.

This is the épitomé of a "damned if I do, damned if I don't" post for me.

I'm bad because I only joke and want to fight, but I'm also bad if I put in the effort to make a post outlining my thoughts? Ok. If that's the case, I'm going back to joking and fluff posts cuz they're way more fun.




I'm not a recruit, Timmer. I'm a disengaged civ. I've posted more in Misfirs because more is going on there that is diectly relevant to me.

[S~V~S]

I actually plan on doing something similar, Timmer~ I think we are at the stage where if we all lay out our thoughts, we can sort things out.

First off, Bye Bea~ that was a very surprising kill imo. I was suspicious of her, and had planned to focus on her today, I had even started pulling quotes. If my thought that they can kill or recruit, but not both, each night is correct, then they chose to kill her over increasing their numbers. So even though she is dead, I still plan on spending some time on her today, and on her thoughts.

As for Keterman, I will cover him now since he is not an option~ for me he would not be an option anyhow. I really doubt he would have gone into gloaty mode had he been LCs teammate, although it is possible they can recruit him in future. Since there was still some iffyness on him during the night, though, I doubt they would have recruited him last night, IF they can do both in one night.

I have morning chores and dog walks & food shopping but will be ready to settle in this afternoon for some analysis.

[thellama73]

Thanks for the analysis Timmer. I'm not sure if I agree with all of it, but it definitely is helpful. I want to think long and hard about this lynch, because I agree it is crucial.

On a side note, I tend to take people's RL excuses at face value, but the cynic in me finds it a bit weird that BWT, Bullz, and Hedge all posted in a row about not being able to be around much today. It almost seems like people are fleeing in order to avoid being discussed.

[Canucklehead]

On a side note, I tend to take people's RL excuses at face value, but the cynic in me finds it a bit weird that BWT, Bullz, and Hedge all posted in a row about not being able to be around much today. It almost seems like people are fleeing in order to avoid being discussed.

I think it almost seems like people are fleeing because it's a weekend, and people do things on weekends.

[thellama73]

On a side note, I tend to take people's RL excuses at face value, but the cynic in me finds it a bit weird that BWT, Bullz, and Hedge all posted in a row about not being able to be around much today. It almost seems like people are fleeing in order to avoid being discussed.

I think it almost seems like people are fleeing because it's a weekend, and people do things on weekends.

No they don't, they stay in and play mafia. At least, I do.

[Mister Rearranger]

I work on weekends...

If I have enough time, I plan to do a readthrough on as many players as possible while there.

[Hedgeowl]

Thanks for the analysis Timmer. I'm not sure if I agree with all of it, but it definitely is helpful. I want to think long and hard about this lynch, because I agree it is crucial.

On a side note, I tend to take people's RL excuses at face value, but the cynic in me finds it a bit weird that BWT, Bullz, and Hedge all posted in a row about not being able to be around much today. It almost seems like people are fleeing in order to avoid being discussed.

Au contraire mon frere, BWT and Bullz were stating why they wouldn't be here in the future. I was stating why I hadn't been here in the past. Sheesh.

That said, I am off to the store and will read Timmers stuff in more depth when I get back.

[thellama73]

Thanks for the analysis Timmer. I'm not sure if I agree with all of it, but it definitely is helpful. I want to think long and hard about this lynch, because I agree it is crucial.

On a side note, I tend to take people's RL excuses at face value, but the cynic in me finds it a bit weird that BWT, Bullz, and Hedge all posted in a row about not being able to be around much today. It almost seems like people are fleeing in order to avoid being discussed.

Au contraire mon frere, BWT and Bullz were stating why they wouldn't be here in the future. I was stating why I hadn't been here in the past. Sheesh.

That said, I am off to the store and will read Timmers stuff in more depth when I get back.

Your internet is all fixed now, then? That is good news.

[juliets]

Since we're giving our whereabouts this weekend, in exactly 40 minutes i will be going to get my hair done which will take a couple of hours and then tonight i'm going to YAY THE FIRST HOME GAME OF THE SEASON! I will be in and out around those things, probably spending time re-reading timmers points. Some I already agree with like Keterman. And Hedgie. The only thing is just because someone wasn't recruited before doesn't mean they aren't recruited now which scares me.

[Kylemii]

interesting thoughts timmer, your thing on BR males a lot of sense, i'm not sure what reason she'd have for searching out her husband gameplaywise. though it would also be odd for her to announce that she was searching for him if that were her intention

other points on other players seem good as well, very helpful analysis over all :0

Kyle is a mixed bag for me. There isn't much in his posts that is pingy. He suspected bullz for a time, but I can't knock him for that, I did, too. Really, the only thing that is semi-pingy is his vote for Long Con.

i see... *nods*

in any case, i need to vote tonight. i don't see myself voting boogs any more because his explanation felt sincere to me. i'm likely to vote for LC because of that selective quoting thing. my instincts tell me that that is a baddie-like thing to do.

I'm going to be honest here, guys. While I wholeheartedly supported the case against Long Con, there is just something about Kyle's vote. To only mention the selective quoting part in explaining why he would vote Long Con seems a bit weak to me, because that was really the weaker link in that case. Kyle voted 4th for Long Con which imo is roughly the point where baddie teammates tend to start piling on in a lynch.

I'll put kyle somewhere in the middle of the pack. His vote for Long Con doesn't feel right, but that's kind of only one thing.

the other parts of the case just weren't as relevant to me. the quote truncation thing was something i had witnessed myself, and it was the kind of verbal manipulation thing i look for in other players which leads me to suspect them. until then i was still pretty much on the fence. i honestly couldn't tell you off the top of my head what the rest of the case against him even was. and though i was the 4th vote but i had expressed intent to vote for him when he had only 2-3 votes, i think. i do know that MR's vote happened while i was getting ready to vote

[unfurl]

Bye Bea; who is going to keep me company now with my fried brains?

I´ve been feeling a little under the weather
But just finish catching up
I had been thinking tyler very likely threw LC under the bus to blend in, Im going to try to read back into how the votes came in
hopefully I feel better later on today or will have to do it until tomorrow before votting

[thellama73]

I had been thinking tyler very likely threw LC under the bus to blend in, Im going to try to read back into how the votes came in

Why? What are you basing that on? Why specifically Tyler and not one of the other recruits?

[S~V~S]

While I am not totally surprised by the big LC push, he has not had many mentions before the last day or so, and i had him pegged for a civ early on, but it is a recruiting game; things change. On the other hand I am not too totally surprised based on his super hostile reaction to me re Lea. That kind of raised a brow for me at the time he said it. But I gotta say, at this stage of the game, when you are more about defense than offense, it isn't a good sign.

I want to do some rereading of him in the Town threads, I will likely fly by vote from phone at work a bit later.

@Bea~ I am confused. You think LC is Baddie McBadderson, but you are putting a vote on someone to put them on notice? But your points on Lea going AWOL are good ones, even I kinda forgot about her. So now I need to revisit her, too, especially since LC defended her himself.

And Thanks re bad day & bus, but now I gotta go out in the rain & catch the *&*(@^$@ bus again~ and there is a flood watch lol but the bus is slow, plenty of reading time~ and I can vote from work.

nooo - not at all - I think LC is ALWAYS baddie mcbadderson. And I can see how in this game that could be used against me. IE - it really can't be THIS easy to lynch baddie LC can it???

And I forgot LC defended her - what really brought her back was a) i was expecting a catsup that was all "Oh - crap - I voted svs just as she dropped her case on me. my bad. that didn't happen and b) daisy's defense of her seems very well timed.

and c) daisy should know better. She's better than that. If I had two votes to vote for being better players than that - BR would get my other vote.

Does that make more sense? I'm in end of day and you are in start of day and I know we can cross wires here.
the double edge sword of the bus. I know it well. My day is made or broken by how quickly it takes me to hop the transfer. If I can get it direct, life is good. If I'm waiting a half hour my whole rest of my day is shite.

This exchange is where I began to think Bea was bad. I was sure that if LC flipped bad, so would Bea (this conversation also played into my Lea suspish from earlier in the game ). Over the course of the day, she made several more posts that led me in that direction. I thought this was a defense of a teammate (having been bad with her many times, and one of her more endearing qualities, as a player & as a person, is loyalty; she will defend a teammate even when it is a lost cause).

She would have been the worlds easiest lynch. Her posts are papered with things that are incredibly suspicious in context of LC flipping baddie, up to the "My eye is on Keterman" bit in her lynch reaction post. When Bea turned up NK, the first thing I did was look at page one to see if "powers", like redirects, had been added to the roles. That kill made zero sense to me.

So imo, it is one of two things. Either she hit the suspicion nail on the head, and they wanted to shut her up OR since she was very vocal in that regard (she talked more in that last day than pretty much any other day in this game) she was killed to frame those people for killing her.

[S~V~S]

This is her vote post. At the time, this felt weak to me, but it is also very detailed and passionate. Especially the "don't vote like me" part (another reason i thought she was bad, lol. I had this post diced and sliced to ribbons to use it against Bea today )

Also, ugh. I al so far behind I was thinking we were still choosing two fighters. We are now in the lynch. I need to vote like now too. I am going to random a vote because I am obviously too out of the loop to adequately choose...

Kyle it is. *votes Kyle*

And - ok - I hate to do this to you - as I did read about your losing your staff and I KNOW what a week and such you've had because all of us know that you are newly engaged to our host and he is in the process of moving.

But - and this has gone the same for me and BDH and I'm sure Elo/Epi have felt it and I am sure LC/BR feel it all the time. You can't have it both ways.

You lived with the host.

You KNOW you had extended time. Lots of extended time. We should have completed a whole cycle by now.

You KNOW you missed LOTS. Like LOTS. Why when you were playing catch up - wouldn't you realize you were *that* far behind? Why wouldn't you look at the most recent stuff first - at the least, to know you were in a lynch phase? It's right there - in bold red at the top of the forum.

Put yourself in my shoes for just a minute. You come out when your name is called for being gone in the game. You spend LOTS of your catch up time defending someone you know IRL on something that has *ages* past EXCEPT for the fact that I brought up the point that Leo has also been missing this very long cycle and I was MORE than curious about her reaction to svs dropping her case then her OMGUS vote.

Leam has not been around during this very long day/night cycle too when she said she'd have time after her mom left during the weekend. It's now Wed morning. And the vote is closing and no Leam. No reaction. No nothing. But you found the time to defend her. Not catch up on the most recent info, but to look at old stuff and defend her.

Unless MR says something really convincing in linki - I'm voting Daisy.

LC - if you're looking for a place to truncate vote posts - anything above - I'm ok with - anything below and I will srrsly think you are baddie mcbadderson.

I DO NOT WANT OR EXPECT ANYONE ELSE TO VOTE THE SAME WAY. IN FACT I WILL LOOK ACTIVELY AGAINST PEOPLE WHO FOLLOW MY VOTE.

But Daisy - you are too good of a player to be doing these sorts of things. If the tables were turned your flairs would be up. I'm voting you because I'm putting you on notice. I *know* being busy. And I *know* wanting to help your love. But if you are too busy to play, replace. Watch the game on the sidelines with your love. (that's great fun btw.) I truely love you girl. I can't believe how much it actually hurts me to vote this way. But today, I feel it's the best placement of my vote. Step up sista.

It would be hard to miss this post, tbh. And I thought it an odd vote in light of Bea knowing Daisy IRL, and knowing what was up in her life at this time.

Llama also commented on Daisy at one point. Personally, I could go either way on Daisy. If you read back on most of her recent games, she is on the low poster side the last year or so~ mafia is a smaller part of her life than it used to be, I think. I tend to think Bea was NKed to set up Daisy, rather than to shut her up, especially since she was not the only person to wonder about Daisy. Bea mentioned a few other people; Keterman, BR~ she did a Q & A with BR as well.

I wanted to get my feelings about Beas' death out of the way before I look at who's left.

[S~V~S]

I am going to start with the people I feel are most likely to be Tyler based on proximity. I think DH was recruited Day 1 or Day 2, based on behavior. Day one most likely, since he led Day 2 with attacking Llama for the same thing he had done.

Of the people Alive here is where we were on Day One (it only really matters IMO where DH was, but knowing where YOU were can put it in context):

Penns Grove:

Timmer, Daisy, Canuck (FH), Unfurl.

New Castle: DAY ONE DH & LC BOTH HERE

Bullz, Kyle, MR, Russti

Delaware City:

SVS, BWT, BR

Wilmington:

Hedge, Ketterman, Sorsha, Llama

Day 2:

Wilmington: DH WUZ HERE, LC TOO

BWT, Bullz, MR, SVS, Sorsha, Llama, Timmer

DH spent that whole day trying to inflame people against Llama.

Interesting that LC & DH were together~ LC said he was going to move forward with me & DH, Nevin & Bullz to DC, but he missed the vote.

So Day One, Bullz, Kyle, MR, Russti, DH & LC were all together in a thread. DH, LC & Bullz moved on to Wilmington. Where half of the people currently alive were. BUT then DH moved forward, Bullz was seriously injured and did not move forward, and LC missed the vote.

I found it really interesting that LC & DH moved together the first night, and attempted to the second night. And that Bullz & MR did Night One, too; Night Two MR went elsewhere, but Bullz voted to stay with DH. I thought it an odd coincidence. DH was the one pushing the "lets move together" thing. I know someone brought this up before, but re baddie BTSC, what if they only had it when they were together? Similar to the theory that Tyler had to be in the thread with the person recruited, which was why DH wanted Aces with him (this is also not a new thought), to recruit him? The main reason I bring this up is that I had forgotten that LC was with DH those first few days.

Night 1:DharmaHelper (2), Long Con (3), Bullzeye (4), Mister Rearranger (5) 80%

Night 2: S~V~S (2), DharmaHelper (3), Nevinera (4), Bullzeye (7) 31%

I believe Bullz was hurt that night in a fight, and did not move forward. LC said he was going to vote for DC, but did not.

This would narrow my focus down to Bullz (poor guy he has been being hounded all game) and MR, who I don;t seem to recall getting any suspicion, but this has been a big game, I might have forgotten it. So I am going to be rereading them for a while.

I am glad I started doing this, it's interesting. Hopefully even if it does not lead to any conclusions for myself, maybe it will spur some discussion.

[Mister Rearranger]

Nobody is positing that our missing party, Kate, might be Tyler? Could be a role that dies once all of its recruits die, or even when the Narrator dies? She fits Timmer's theory as well as any other possibilities. Just one reason why I'm not solely focused on lynching Tyler today, as that may not even be possible. I don't remember when her status was changed to "vanished" though... :/

Timmer, I was a bit unclear on why you thought SVS was a safe pick for fighting, but I think it makes sense now. I was only curious of what made you so sure that you wouldn't kill her in said fight. Mia culpa.

Other issues that I haven't seen resolved or addressed:

-Unfurl's early killing of DP as a result of their fight

-Boomslang not being injured by Hedge

-Keterman not being injured by BR on Night 2; same with SE vs. FH; same with Timmer vs. Daisy Night 1

-Recruiting stopped as soon as the threads merged, right? If I think Timmer's theory about Tyler holds water (that he could only recruit in the town he's residing in), that would make it a bit more difficult for him to recruit the police quickly, as Llama hypothesized. Not impossible, mind you, especially if they moved in a herd. But trickier if they split up.

^That's a few things I've noticed and apologies if they've been addressed. Catching up on this game is a constant process what with how long I was absent.

Now I've got some further reading to do... >.>

[S~V~S]

If I had to pick between MR & Bullz, I was leaning towards MR. Not just becasue of how Bullz is reading to me, but becasue he lost that fight on night 2 badly enough to be left behind. In starting my reread of MR, I see that he was also seriously injured. So not sure about that; do we even think Tyler can be seriously injured in a fight?

Mr R~ my unsolicited opinions in red:

Nobody is positing that our missing party, Kate, might be Tyler? Could be a role that dies once all of its recruits die, or even when the Narrator dies? She fits Timmer's theory as well as any other possibilities. Just one reason why I'm not solely focused on lynching Tyler today, as that may not even be possible. I don't remember when her status was changed to "vanished" though... :/

She was vanished when the threads merged~ i had been looking for her, JC & Bea, all friends whose insights I enjoy. I especially would have liked to hear what Kate had to say, as she is often spot on. When I found her very few posts, I found nothing there to alarm me.

Timmer, I was a bit unclear on why you thought SVS was a safe pick for fighting, but I think it makes sense now. I was only curious of what made you so sure that you wouldn't kill her in said fight. Mia culpa.

Um, elucidate, please? Is it becasue I talk a whole fucking lot??

Other issues that I haven't seen resolved or addressed:

-Unfurl's early killing of DP as a result of their fight

Why mention this killing, but not Canucks?

-Boomslang not being injured by Hedge

-Keterman not being injured by BR on Night 2; same with SE vs. FH; same with Timmer vs. Daisy Night 1

It is possible that they were very evenly matched? I don't specifically recall those fights.

-Recruiting stopped as soon as the threads merged, right? If I think Timmer's theory about Tyler holds water (that he could only recruit in the town he's residing in), that would make it a bit more difficult for him to recruit the police quickly, as Llama hypothesized. Not impossible, mind you, especially if they moved in a herd. But trickier if they split up.

Why do you think that? That recruiting stopped? I don't see how Tyler could win if recruiting suddenly stopped, assuming it is a standard cult. The win cons for Tyler are:

[quote]Wins when Project Mayhem is complete and when all unrecruited Policemen are dead.

That "complete" qualifier is probably just "outnumbers". I particularly like cult roles, and tyler seems a pretty straightforward cult leader. That plus no one defended LC, and if there were living unrecruited cops, they would have, I think.[/dead]

^That's a few things I've noticed and apologies if they've been addressed. Catching up on this game is a constant process what with how long I was absent.

Now I've got some further reading to do... >.>[/quote]

[thellama73]

Llama, made cocky by his instincts on Long Con being so devastatingly correct, has returned to an earlier suspicion. I've been doing some reading, and one thing keeps sticking out to me. Here are all the posts of Kylemii talking about fighting.

Beginning in New Castle on Day 1

i don't particularly want to fight anyone, i'd be okay with voting DH since he volunteered

Then, no mention of fighting until Wilmington on Day 4:

everyone seems so down to fight. there must be something to it.

i'll fight anyone.

Quite a difference. Then we all came here, and Kyle appeared to become suddenly quite eager.

I didn't fight either. i was worried about the risk until day 4 or so when i was just like "yeah whatever"

holy shit :0

rest in peace everyone

i'd be okay with fighting

i would be okay with fighting especially if it were against another fighting novice.

I would still like to fight at some point in case fighting skill level ends up being important down the road but I'm not really in a hurry.

In each case, he tries to sound casual, but the number of posts seems to indicate almost a desperation for fighting. I asked him about this, and this was his response.

i only wanna fight because i'm weak and i'm worried that fight skill may somehow end up being important in the endgame. i was worried about dying in a fight early on but now i've realized that the risk of dying early may be a fair trade-off for possibly not getting screwed in the endgame if i somehow end up living that long. Does that make sense?

Now, I may be wrong, but I smell a rat here. I think Kyle might be Tyler, who I suspect is quite powerful in fights. My theory is that he didn't want to fight early for fear of tipping his hand, but once he had a few recruits and the game was starting to go his way, he wanted to fight in order to accelerate his killing. The other possibility is that he knows something about the endgame that we don't, which would explain his last two posts on the subject.

It's also worth noting theat he studiously avoided voting for Long Con and he has been quite strong about pursuing Bullzeye, whom I trust more than just about anyone else.

[Mister Rearranger]

@SVS: You do talk a lot. I thought Timmer's words/theories were contradictory concerning fight mechanics, but I think he meant that he picked you because he thought two inexperienced fighters might be a safer bet for both parties. However, it's still not a very strong notion after taking the Unfurl vs. DP fight into account.

Canuck's fight happened later; I need to dig into the threads some more to figure out if she fought before that, which may have had an influence? There were a lot more "nobody was harmed" fights than I listed too, I was just bringing up the earliest ones I could remember.

Regarding recruitment ending, the host said so himself:

Night 4: A Twist No One Expected

It is now Day 5. The game has entered its true phase. All roles have been updated appropriately.

All unrecruited Civilians are no longer independent. They are aligned with "Narrator" and must need Tyler Durden dead to win.

You have 48 hours to lynch "Tyler Durden" or one of his cronies. Good luck.[/b]

This plays into why I have a weak opinion that Kate may have been Tyler. Idk.

[thellama73]

-Recruiting stopped as soon as the threads merged, right?

Holy cow, I completely missed that. That is a really weird assumption to make, unless he knows more than he is telling. Good catch, S~V~S.

[thellama73]

@MR: that host post doesn't say recruiting stopped though.

[S~V~S]

-Recruiting stopped as soon as the threads merged, right?

Holy cow, I completely missed that. That is a really weird assumption to make, unless he knows more than he is telling. Good catch, S~V~S.

I think this is the second time you have said something like this this game, I may need to update my sig :P

OK, gonna cook/eat/blah blah, and return to do my "what I think of everyone list"

[Mister Rearranger]

Also with regards to SVS's narrowing down possible Tyler Durdens:

I don't see anything in the non-secret descriptions that would indicate Tyler recruits throughout the process. I could see Tyler recruiting the first BTSC partner from the player's starting town, but then perhaps Tyler could recruit through that first recruit from there, and so on and so forth. Gives incentive for Tyler and the recruit to split up instead of staying together.

Differing thoughts about a mechanic we won't be sure of until the endgame, I guess. :/

Linki @Llama: I took the "No longer independent" as an end to the ambiguity of being possible recruits. That was my train of thought.

[thellama73]

Linki @Llama: I took the "No longer independent" as an end to the ambiguity of being possible recruits. That was my train of thought.

Okay, thanks for the explanation. It's certainly not an inference I drew from the post though.

[Mister Rearranger]

^I wouldn't see any reason to refer to the generic civ roles as "independent" in the first place if that wasn't the implication. Then again, I have a tendency of naivety.

[S~V~S]

The civs started out as "survive to the end", iirc from my role PM.

[S~V~S]

LOL, NOW gonna cook, etc., bbl

[Mister Rearranger]

The civs started out as "survive to the end", iirc from my role PM.

There's a second part to that, but I think I would be violating rules by posting anything from that PM and do not want to do that.

[Mister Rearranger]

Newscast momentarily, I shall return after that.

[unfurl]

I had been thinking tyler very likely threw LC under the bus to blend in, Im going to try to read back into how the votes came in

Why? What are you basing that on? Why specifically Tyler and not one of the other recruits?

I think the priority in this game is to find tyler
And I think it is very likely that tyler decided to threw LC under the bus, if he saw that the lynch was going on that direction and ofc he knew LC was going to flip bad
makes sense? it makes sense to me

I think you have brought good points about Kyle, thats intersting to read

[thellama73]

makes sense? it makes sense to me

It doesn't make sense to me, no. There are a number of recruits as well as Tyler. If you had said "it's likely that a baddie threw LC under the bus" then I would agree that is a possibility. I don't understand why you think Tyler specifically was the one to do that though.

[Canucklehead]

So. Wacky-thoughts time.

I've been thinking a little about Fight Cub lately (not only because of this game...I'm also teaching the film this semester so I'm kinda obligated to think about it )......and I'm a little concerned about the "big plot twist" in the film and how it might play out in this game.

Crazy theory that I KNOW is going to get me lynched:
I think in order to kill Tyler, we need to lynch the narrator.

[thellama73]

Crazy theory that I KNOW is going to get me lynched:
I think in order to kill Tyler, we need to lynch the narrator.

Okay, for the sake of argument: who is the narrator, then?

[Mister Rearranger]

Crazy theory that I KNOW is going to get me lynched:
I think in order to kill Tyler, we need to lynch the narrator.

This isn't too far off from what I was considering with Kate and finding the recruits first. Hmm, could be and would make more sense, as twisted as it would be to do.

That being said, I still automatically want to lynch anyone who makes "I know I'll be lynched for this, but..." statements lol

I'm trying to wrap my head around why I suspected Daisy the other day. I know I sensed some kind of tonal shift during my first readthrough, but nothing is standing out now that I'm going back to the split-threads. I'm more inclined to believe anything I might have nitpicked the first time was all the result of a busy schedule.

linki: Not me! I can't even keep up with reading all of this stuff, let alone narrating it.

[Mister Rearranger]

I would like to know how MR was less explanatory than kyle. Also - if LC does turn up bad then you think your vote for MR is poor? And you should supect kyle, llama and timmer instead?

If LC turns up bad then I am wrong, but by my read of the thread it doesn't seem very likely.

I'm confused by this statement. where exactly are you wrong again? And why do you think you are most likely not wrong? I've not seen anything from you that speaks of evidence of anything.

Again - just because LC is in the hot seat so people are expecting you to comment, you take the most noncommital spot you can take. Because I also get this - you've not got your read yet there. Maybe? And it's about time peeps are going to start asking you.
But why MR over Kyle? llama and timmer have both worked the eff out of this thread - the nonparticipants are kyle and MR. This is interesting to me. Like lots. I'd love a complete breakdown of every thought you've had while reading everying. Please do that BR. (I know that's crap btw. but still I'd love it!)

@ LC - I'm sorry if you are a civ - outside of llama where else would you have us look? And I KNOW svs and others will be around so y9ou know things can turn...yet..

This post stands out to me a lot more now. I am definitely interested in hearing a response from Black Rock, even if Bea is no longer with us. Black Rock's post previous to this one was very noncommittal and did leave Kyle out of the conversation to a degree I'm not comfortable with.

[thellama73]

MR, what do you think of my case against Kyle? Anything to it, or am I imagining things?

[Mister Rearranger]

MR, what do you think of my case against Kyle? Anything to it, or am I imagining things?

I like your assessment of his Day 1-Day 4 shift, but that leads me to believe he may have been recruited between then, not that he's Tyler.

I'll have to look through his posts for myself, because while I find myself in agreement about your suspicion, I'm not sure how much of that is my own opinion and how much of it has to do with the good job you did compiling the case.

At first, he struck me as the Kyle I remember playing with on LP. However, I'm especially intrigued by what you called him "trying to sound casual" in those post D4 snippets.

[birdwithteeth11]

This is probably going to be my only post for this day period. About to go spend a night out drinking, and may or may not have time to vote later. Going with Kyle because the case on him seems fairly good from what I've seen. Hoping he ends up being Tyler.

[Mister Rearranger]

Interesting that he went back to cautiousness on Night 8:

i have not fought yet, but i am apprehensive about doing so at this point in the game. i feel like I'd probably die.

so i'm going to vote for someone else, someone who hasn't won any fights

Did you catch this in your read, Llama?

[Mister Rearranger]

EBWOP: I mean, I had the same thought he did on my first days: Maybe I should get into the fighting game early so I'm not surrounded by high-level players at the end, y'know? So that aspect of his posts isn't all that fishy to me.

[thellama73]

Interesting that he went back to cautiousness on Night 8:

i have not fought yet, but i am apprehensive about doing so at this point in the game. i feel like I'd probably die.

so i'm going to vote for someone else, someone who hasn't won any fights

Did you catch this in your read, Llama?

No, I missed that one. Not quite sure what to make of it. I'll think a bit and vote in the morning.

[Hedgeowl]

Nobody is positing that our missing party, Kate, might be Tyler? Could be a role that dies once all of its recruits die, or even when the Narrator dies? She fits Timmer's theory as well as any other possibilities. Just one reason why I'm not solely focused on lynching Tyler today, as that may not even be possible. I don't remember when her status was changed to "vanished" though... :/

Timmer, I was a bit unclear on why you thought SVS was a safe pick for fighting, but I think it makes sense now. I was only curious of what made you so sure that you wouldn't kill her in said fight. Mia culpa.

Other issues that I haven't seen resolved or addressed:

-Unfurl's early killing of DP as a result of their fight

-Boomslang not being injured by Hedge

-Keterman not being injured by BR on Night 2; same with SE vs. FH; same with Timmer vs. Daisy Night 1

-Recruiting stopped as soon as the threads merged, right? If I think Timmer's theory about Tyler holds water (that he could only recruit in the town he's residing in), that would make it a bit more difficult for him to recruit the police quickly, as Llama hypothesized. Not impossible, mind you, especially if they moved in a herd. But trickier if they split up.

^That's a few things I've noticed and apologies if they've been addressed. Catching up on this game is a constant process what with how long I was absent.

Now I've got some further reading to do... >.>

I wondered as well about the non-injury from fighting. I wasnt injured when I lost the first fight and then didnt injure Boomslang in the 2nd, so I assumed it was due to the fact that we were evenly matched. That's all I have to work on based on what I know about my skill level and then I assume others. Interesting that you think Tyler's recruiting had stopped after the threads merged. That was part of Llama and my issue is he was working from the assumption that recruiting was a nightly occurrence, but it definitely seems like the police must have been all or mostly recruited at this point, either that or they suck at searching the right people. (sorry ) I dont really understand how Kate could be Tyler and there still be recruits, did I miss something?

[Hedgeowl]

Well I have been trying to read and post all day. Either a child got in my way, or work, or my damn internet wasn't working. So much to read today. I went back and read the last day as I had missed a lot. As far as I could see there wasn't much to get out last day. Not much went on or said. The votes weren't really that suspicious.

To be completely honest I'm having troubles remembering specifics from the last couple of pages. So I guess I will have to look at them again. *sigh*

I'm guessing the kids got in the way again during your re-read and that's why you didn't come back with some thoughts besides "I'm feeling so lost right now. OMG this is how the players of my games feel?" it's weird being on the other side of a mind eff game isn't it? You are too good of a player to let you keep sliding on this. I would and have been lynched MANY times for less. see: Day 1 of your last game.

@ MR - maybe it is - maybe it isn't? I don't know. I know that the very name LC is enough of a mind eff that I'm worried that it can't be *this* easy - ya know? Part of me is going - we HAVE to be being played here. Who was it that said - "I feel like I'm sitting in front of two cups of wine?" - yea. That's me re: LC. Also - THANK YOU for actually being up and around. I always feel like I'm talking to myself.

No I went to bed. I was exhausted and I couldn't read anymore. I still haven't gone back.

I'm off today and will be gone till Sunday. I am working the biggest job of my life this weekend. Will be here when I can. I know I am usually more active, but RL has gotten in my way this game.

I find the LC voters very interesting. At this point I hope he turns up baddie. He gets lynched for stupid reasons every game, sometimes he is bad, sometimes he is good. Yes, I do think they are stupid reasons again this game.

I have to vote now, I'm voting for one of the bandwagoners who really had no original thought on it. Not DP, if he's about to die anyways... I went with MR since I feel like llama and Timmer had good reasons, kyle sort of explained himself better. If LC turns up bad then I am wrong, but by my read of the thread it doesn't seem very likely.

Black Rock. Let's start with this post. Bea brings up a good point. Black Rock has spent the last few game days kind of coasting, not really saying much. She says she is busy, and before anyone gets the wrong impression here, I'm sure she is! And she mentioned being away for a few days, etc. But let's take a close look at this quoted post. She pleads not having time to catch up, she says she feels lost. But look at the part I bolded. She sure seems to have an opinion on Long Con, and the people pushing against him. And most interesting, she calls the reasons against Long Con stupid, but then the very next line won't vote for me or llama because we had "good reasons"?

Also of note was the time Long Con logged in as Black Rock and voted in a poll so she wouldn't die. Obviously there are some variables here, such as we don't know exactly when Long Con was recruited, but I think there is a decent chance that a baddie Long Con would have let a civvie Black Rock die in that situation. The fact that he did what he did adds to the chance BR was a recruit or Tyler at the time.

ALSO also of note, though this more abstract, if Black Rock were Tyler, I find it VERY likely that she would have sought out Long Con to recruit him, and if you read her posts from the early phase of the game, she specifically tracked him down in Wilmington. She went there to "find her husband".

I think there are decent odds BR is a recruit or Tyler.

I find this interesting. I read her frustration as similar to what Epi feels when Elo was lynched over and over in several games.
I wasnt actually bothered by LC voting for BR thing. They live together, possibly share a computer, and he explained that he did it. Also, if BR asked LC to vote for her and he didnt do it because he was a baddie and she was a civ, well that would be super obvious. lol. I do find the part about her tracking him down to be interesting though. In light of the theory that Tyler had to be in the same city to recruit, does that still work for DH and LC? It would seem super obvious to recruit your husband in a recruitment based game, but as we established not everyone would recruit based on Llama's theory of best recruitment practices.