The Syndicate

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:17 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:16 pm Btw, has anyone kept track of dyachei's votes? Besides Marmot, I don't remember dyachei really finding wolf.

Dya's been underwhelming. Worth an iso

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:18 pm**

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:15 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:05 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:59 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:56 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:55 pm I am town. Killing me will lose the game.

If your suspects are just me and LP then we have gone wrong somewhere
Help us find who if not you.
Sloonei, LP, sabie and Dya

Dya has cred for the kill on marmot, but I don't see why they can't be the lone wolf

I'm assuming LP is scum

I really doubt creature/falcon are faking their stuff so I am assuming legit.
If sabie is scum, then i would be surprised Alexa and Sabie agreed both with me to shoot Mac.

Dya is hard to say cuz is for personal reasons less involved, and the shot on Marmot could mean anything really.

Sloonei is looking really good today.
Mac was never surviving to end game

^ we even know as much because falcon attempted to shoot mac

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:18 pm**

It sorta bothers me dyachei has been mostly voting wrong after the Marmot kill.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:18 pm**

Actually, before I articulate my concern, I need to ask a question first.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:52 pm I didn't trust anything Ilario said. I didn't trust the 3p won't inherit the mafia kill because that definitely didn't blow up in my face before.

In what scenario could ilario "inherit the mafia kill"?

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:19 pm**

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:16 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:06 pm Are you telling me every townie you have played with has a reaction that makes 'sense'.

B) that isn't true because Alexa could have been healed.

"All we were being asked to do was believe him or not believe him with regards to Alexa." - and I chose not to trust him
We knew that Alexa was poisoned. We knew that ilario claimed responsibility. We knew what ilario had told us about his role. We did not know whether it was possible for alexa to be healed.

In the world where alexa was healed, ilario's attempt to achieve his 3p goal would have failed. In which case, he'd be stuck in the thread having outed himself completely unnecessarily. ilario was safely in the towncore at the time of his claim. In this world, there is nothing we can do on Day 4 except wait to see what happens to alexa and ilario. This is what I mean when I say "there was nothing we could do to prevent his actions from resolving." Thus, we were never being asked to "trust" ilario in a game-sense. We were only being asked to trust a singular read he had made, and even that was not strictly necessary. "Trusting" his alexa read just meant playing that day as though alexa might be mafia, rather than confirmed town. Making a fuss about not trusting ilario just impedes our efforts to flesh out reads in the world where alexa is mafia.

I also have another concern which I'll articulate in a separate post.

You're again discounting the possibility that town makes irrational reactions

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:19 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:18 pm It sorta bothers me dyachei has been mostly voting wrong after the Marmot kill.

I can see giving Dya too much town creds for that kill can be potentially very dangerous

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:19 pm**

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:18 pm Actually, before I articulate my concern, I need to ask a question first.
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:52 pm I didn't trust anything Ilario said. I didn't trust the 3p won't inherit the mafia kill because that definitely didn't blow up in my face before.
In what scenario could ilario "inherit the mafia kill"?

If the wolves are all dead and the game was still going on

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:20 pm**

idk I'm too tired to be tinfoiling right now

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:21 pm**

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:19 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:16 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:06 pm Are you telling me every townie you have played with has a reaction that makes 'sense'.

B) that isn't true because Alexa could have been healed.

"All we were being asked to do was believe him or not believe him with regards to Alexa." - and I chose not to trust him
We knew that Alexa was poisoned. We knew that ilario claimed responsibility. We knew what ilario had told us about his role. We did not know whether it was possible for alexa to be healed.

In the world where alexa was healed, ilario's attempt to achieve his 3p goal would have failed. In which case, he'd be stuck in the thread having outed himself completely unnecessarily. ilario was safely in the towncore at the time of his claim. In this world, there is nothing we can do on Day 4 except wait to see what happens to alexa and ilario. This is what I mean when I say "there was nothing we could do to prevent his actions from resolving." Thus, we were never being asked to "trust" ilario in a game-sense. We were only being asked to trust a singular read he had made, and even that was not strictly necessary. "Trusting" his alexa read just meant playing that day as though alexa might be mafia, rather than confirmed town. Making a fuss about not trusting ilario just impedes our efforts to flesh out reads in the world where alexa is mafia.

I also have another concern which I'll articulate in a separate post.
You're again discounting the possibility that town makes irrational reactions

I’m not. I just think your reaction specifically looks exaggerated.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:21 pm**

I know Dya has been having stuff going on irl. But I think it would be a mistake to let that slot skate-by

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:23 pm**

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:21 pm I know Dya has been having stuff going on irl. But I think it would be a mistake to let that slot skate-by

Agreed.

If they didn't shot Marmot, i would scumread Dya for sure. So maybe it is Dya afterall.

Is Dya+LP a thing?

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:24 pm**

Marmot was underwhelming too. Maybe Marmot sacrifised himself.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:24 pm**

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:23 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:21 pm I know Dya has been having stuff going on irl. But I think it would be a mistake to let that slot skate-by
Agreed.

If they didn't shot Marmot, i would scumread Dya for sure. So maybe it is Dya afterall.

Is Dya+LP a thing?

My only pause is they are defending sabie, a slot that was in the PoE and would have been a free misyeet

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:25 pm**

or not free but you know what I mean

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:25 pm**

If LP is wolf, that's alright, I believe we'll eventually catch the last one. If LP is town that's when we should be worrying.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:25 pm**

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:19 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:18 pm Actually, before I articulate my concern, I need to ask a question first.
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:52 pm I didn't trust anything Ilario said. I didn't trust the 3p won't inherit the mafia kill because that definitely didn't blow up in my face before.
In what scenario could ilario "inherit the mafia kill"?
If the wolves are all dead and the game was still going on

So ilario would have needed to remain in the game for several phases after killing alexa in order for this to happen. And if it did happen, we would all know it right away. But it would not likely happen because he told us he would disappear from the game after killing alexa if she flipped mafia. If she flipped town, ilario basically would have had no win condition. If she flipped mafia and he stayed in the game, he’d have a very slim win condition.

If ilario’s win condition required him to survive for an extensive period of time after poisomkng alexa, then it never made sense for him to claim the way he did.

Now to get to the point I was originally going to object to here: your fear about ilario inheriting the mafia kill would imply confidence in alexa flipping mafia.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:25 pm**

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:24 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:23 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:21 pm I know Dya has been having stuff going on irl. But I think it would be a mistake to let that slot skate-by
Agreed.

If they didn't shot Marmot, i would scumread Dya for sure. So maybe it is Dya afterall.

Is Dya+LP a thing?
My only pause is they are defending sabie, a slot that was in the PoE and would have been a free misyeet

Scum white knights all the same, so not sure that is any proof

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:26 pm**

also, sorry for being grouchy

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:26 pm**

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:24 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:23 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:21 pm I know Dya has been having stuff going on irl. But I think it would be a mistake to let that slot skate-by
Agreed.

If they didn't shot Marmot, i would scumread Dya for sure. So maybe it is Dya afterall.

Is Dya+LP a thing?
My only pause is they are defending sabie, a slot that was in the PoE and would have been a free misyeet

Yeah, I believe if dya is wolf they are more likely with sabie

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:27 pm**

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:26 pm also, sorry for being grouchy

That's okay.

I just hope everyone who is town keeps it together, otherwise that is a way to lose.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:28 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:26 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:24 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:23 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:21 pm I know Dya has been having stuff going on irl. But I think it would be a mistake to let that slot skate-by
Agreed.

If they didn't shot Marmot, i would scumread Dya for sure. So maybe it is Dya afterall.

Is Dya+LP a thing?
My only pause is they are defending sabie, a slot that was in the PoE and would have been a free misyeet
Yeah, I believe if dya is wolf they are more likely with sabie

So Alexa and Sabie both joined me on shooting Mac, cuz Mac was about to be shot anyways?

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:28 pm**

Still discouraging when we struggle to find wolf. I'm used to one name sticking out as most likely wolf and not to townread more players than the confirmed number of town alive.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:29 pm**

And that fight between Alexa and Sabie... staged?

How likely is this all?

Why is Dya+Sabie more likely than Lp+Dya?

Lp is the obvious scum rn, no?

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:29 pm**

Also rooting for Chelsea because I don't want the other team to win

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:29 pm**

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:29 pm Lp is the obvious scum rn, no?

I hope so

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:32 pm**

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:25 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:19 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:18 pm Actually, before I articulate my concern, I need to ask a question first.
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:52 pm I didn't trust anything Ilario said. I didn't trust the 3p won't inherit the mafia kill because that definitely didn't blow up in my face before.
In what scenario could ilario "inherit the mafia kill"?
If the wolves are all dead and the game was still going on
So ilario would have needed to remain in the game for several phases after killing alexa in order for this to happen. And if it did happen, we would all know it right away. But it would not likely happen because he told us he would disappear from the game after killing alexa if she flipped mafia. If she flipped town, ilario basically would have had no win condition. If she flipped mafia and he stayed in the game, he’d have a very slim win condition.

If ilario’s win condition required him to survive for an extensive period of time after poisomkng alexa, then it never made sense for him to claim the way he did.

Now to get to the point I was originally going to object to here: your fear about ilario inheriting the mafia kill would imply confidence in alexa flipping mafia.

Yeah but this all requires the knowledge of his wincon being completely factual and not made up. It's not even clear to me now if there was still potential for ilario to inherit the factional kill

And no, not really. I had very minor doubts about alexa but they weren't particularly strong. When the modkill happened I thought Alexa was going to flip town. Ilario even thought the same as well with his reaction. There was still the possibility of alexa flipping town, and we could have killed other wolves in the town!alexa world.

I get my reaction was irrational but that doesn't mean I'm scummy for it because there was context for why I reacted the way I did. I get your point completely if GoC didn't happen last year the way it did.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:32 pm**

It is just...

If Dya is town, why shoot that early already Marmot? Is it really a scum tactic?

And if so... why? That is so dirty play.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:33 pm**

It could be worth it to read Dya based on anything but the Marmot kill.

Not a town read of mine then.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:34 pm**

I actually scumread them mid game when i forgot they were the one who shot Marmot.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:34 pm**

I have said my vote on Dya was a joke, but also i really felt like voting them.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:35 pm**

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:32 pm It is just...

If Dya is town, why shoot that early already Marmot? Is it really a scum tactic?

And if so... why? That is so dirty play.

If dya is town, killing Marmot helps further her wincon by killing wolf.

If dya is wolf, killing Marmot seems to have worked to give her plenty of cred to live this long.

So this worked for either alignment PoV.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:35 pm**

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:28 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:26 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:24 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:23 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:21 pm I know Dya has been having stuff going on irl. But I think it would be a mistake to let that slot skate-by
Agreed.

If they didn't shot Marmot, i would scumread Dya for sure. So maybe it is Dya afterall.

Is Dya+LP a thing?
My only pause is they are defending sabie, a slot that was in the PoE and would have been a free misyeet
Yeah, I believe if dya is wolf they are more likely with sabie
So Alexa and Sabie both joined me on shooting Mac, cuz Mac was about to be shot anyways?

Alexa and sabie wouldn't have known that mac would have been shot if we live in a world where they are both scum. I think it's entirely possible they did it for cred because there was a good chance mac would have been yeeted.

Only thing I don't get is the entire Pao thing, unless that was done to make them look unaligned? But that would be basically sacrificing two mafias

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:36 pm**

I hope LP flips wolf so maybe we can have Sloonei claim their info tomorrow.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:36 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:35 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:32 pm It is just...

If Dya is town, why shoot that early already Marmot? Is it really a scum tactic?

And if so... why? That is so dirty play.
If dya is town, killing Marmot helps further her wincon by killing wolf.

If dya is wolf, killing Marmot seems to have worked to give her plenty of cred to live this long.

So this worked for either alignment PoV.

Do you think a townDya would shoot Marmot that early? It was really soon.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:38 pm**

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:36 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:35 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:32 pm It is just...

If Dya is town, why shoot that early already Marmot? Is it really a scum tactic?

And if so... why? That is so dirty play.
If dya is town, killing Marmot helps further her wincon by killing wolf.

If dya is wolf, killing Marmot seems to have worked to give her plenty of cred to live this long.

So this worked for either alignment PoV.
Do you think a townDya would shoot Marmot that early? It was really soon.

I thought we were already discussing shots at the time?

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:38 pm**

Seanzie shot KZA even earlier ftr

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:38 pm**

I’ll be mostly unavailable for the rest of this phase. Reading dya is a good idea. As is continuing to read other names. If anyone has the time and energy, an analysis of the remaining players’ interactions with each other (Ex. Jpic & LP) could also be useful.

Good luck town, and keep up the good work.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:39 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:36 pm I hope LP flips wolf so maybe we can have Sloonei claim their info tomorrow.

Have I not resolved myself through sheer force of will yet?

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:40 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:38 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:36 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:35 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:32 pm It is just...

If Dya is town, why shoot that early already Marmot? Is it really a scum tactic?

And if so... why? That is so dirty play.
If dya is town, killing Marmot helps further her wincon by killing wolf.

If dya is wolf, killing Marmot seems to have worked to give her plenty of cred to live this long.

So this worked for either alignment PoV.
Do you think a townDya would shoot Marmot that early? It was really soon.
I thought we were already discussing shots at the time?

Hmmm... I really don't know what to do with Dya. I wanna believe town shot Marmot, but i have no other reason to townread Dya. And we did expect Marmot to get killed... and Dya was quickly to do so... hmmmm..... maybe it is Dya who is mafia

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:41 pm**

Lp, dya
Lp, jpic
Dya, sabie

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:14 pm**

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:39 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:36 pm I hope LP flips wolf so maybe we can have Sloonei claim their info tomorrow.
Have I not resolved myself through sheer force of will yet?

No, you're still POE with JPIC, sabie12 and dyachei.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:17 pm**

If dyachei and sabie12 are mafia:

Mislynch LP
6 v 2
Soup kill falcon45ca, Belzy and Porscha
3 v 2
sabie12 uses vigilante kill?
2 v 2

Meh

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:23 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:17 pm If dyachei and sabie12 are mafia:

Mislynch LP
6 v 2
Soup kill falcon45ca, Belzy and Porscha
3 v 2
sabie12 uses vigilante kill?
2 v 2

Meh

Could be worth it finding reasons to be really sure to lynch LP before Dyachei.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:32 pm**

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:50 pm dyachei shot Marmot Neeko thinks?

Qfr

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:51 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:25 pm If LP is wolf, that's alright, I believe we'll eventually catch the last one. If LP is town that's when we should be worrying.

Honestly just hoping at this point Mafia can't kill 4 tonight with soup.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:51 pm**

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:18 am
BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:09 am [VOTE: dyslexicon] aubergine
[VOTE: BoKnows] aubergine

Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

This really made me sad...

I am iso-ing Sabie and came across this.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:52 pm**

tbh Sloonei's wolf equity goes up if LP is town.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:53 pm**

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:51 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:18 am
BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:09 am [VOTE: dyslexicon] aubergine
[VOTE: BoKnows] aubergine

Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
This really made me sad...

I am iso-ing Sabie and came across this.

Ouch that is really sad in hindsight. Shot Town for voting Mafia.

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:53 pm**

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:52 pm tbh Sloonei's wolf equity goes up if LP is town.

I am more concerned of Dya and Sabie as scum if LP is town

Posted: **Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:53 pm**

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:53 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:51 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:18 am
BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:09 am [VOTE: dyslexicon] aubergine
[VOTE: BoKnows] aubergine

Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
This really made me sad...

I am iso-ing Sabie and came across this.
Ouch that is really sad in hindsight. Shot Town for voting Mafia.

I actually townread Bo, and scumread Dizzy, when c4 did that

The Syndicate

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