Anniversary Game 4 - Staff vs AtE D4

[MartinGG99]

What even was the event today? I was working. What came of it?

As far as I know there were two questions: Did you want to build a snowman, and did you believe in magic. Depending on your answer(s) you got removed from the event --- like not wanting to build a snowman.

I have no clue as to what the reward was.

[MartinGG99]

I'm gonna sheep @Dyslexicon because apparently the reward was that they + Rico are sharing a day kill.

I'd rather not vote someone who may get shot (therefore making my vote useless).

[Ricochet]

What even was the event today? I was working. What came of it?

As far as I know there were two questions: Did you want to build a snowman, and did you believe in magic. Depending on your answer(s) you got removed from the event --- like not wanting to build a snowman.

I have no clue as to what the reward was.

I answered yes to both. Was announced winner right after, can only surmise that was necessary. And that Dizzy also did the same.

I said earlier what we received.

[Ricochet]

I'm surprised that TH is the top-poster at 18 posts so far lol

If I wanted to make a stupid leap of faith and ignore my past reading mistakes with them I would say they're probably town for this

which I might just to avoid thinking about that

How hard is it to be the top poster with 18 posts?

Why is being the top poster meaningful?

It's more-so that it seems to me unless you're just "one of those people" most mafia have difficulty reaching top-posting for d1. At least, not intentionally. 18 posts by that point, by a player I don't expect to top-post and yet is top-posting with that almost half-way into d1, makes my gut yell they're town. Partially because I've also done that sort of read before and have been right about it.

It's kinda dumb, but it seems to hold up in my experience. Top-posting beyond d1 though I tend to ignore, as wolves can post more easily with the greater amount of content/discussion topics that have occurred by then.

I feel this would only hold if TH would struggle as wolf to have this much input. Is that the case, from past games?

[Spacedaisy]

Spoiler: show

Slightly bad vibes from Lucy asking everyone for skill levels and specialties cause I don't see town me ever bothering with that but I'm probably just being paranoid.

This feels like a weird hedge.

Regarding lucy, I think I lean town there too, but I suppose getting to know other players could be kind of like hiding behind mechanics. You look like you are doing something, but you aren't really doing anything to progress the game.

I'll hold my slight town lead, but I'm not giving lucy any passes. I'd love to hear how she interpreted the responses she got. I should also probably ISO and see if she has given any actual reads or thoughts so far.

You're hedging here. What leads you to this lean?

And yeah, I just Comic Sansed your entire post. Deal with it.

Regarding lucy, I think I lean town there too, but I suppose getting to know other players could be kind of like hiding behind mechanics. You look like you are doing something, but you aren't really doing anything to progress the game.

I'll hold my slight town lead, but I'm not giving lucy any passes. I'd love to hear how she interpreted the responses she got. I should also probably ISO and see if she has given any actual reads or thoughts so far.

You're hedging here. What leads you to this lean?

And yeah, I just Comic Sansed your entire post. Deal with it.

Read on and you'll see my mind change.

It isn't hedging. It is that I think it's too early to have more than a slight town lean on anyone. I don't want to put myself in any pockets.

But I am leaning more mafia on lucy now. I can't decide if I suspect her or Triplehaven more atm.

This series of posts is funny but I'm agreeing with Daisy here so I'mma leave it alone. Like that's almost exactly my mindset except I used the second section as a reason to not fully scumread Lucy whereas Daisy used it to not fully townread Lucy.

I see what you did there, but what you and I did was actually pretty different. And it is the difference that makes me feel like I didn't like your post about lucy.

I went into it not paying much attention to lucy but have a good feeling about her because she appeared to be asking town-minded questions. Then I forced myself to look because I realized I didn't know if she had offered anything of interest or offered any reads or content of her own and when I saw the answer was no, it flipped my feeling on her. I was clear about what had changed my mind.

But you simply said hey the things she did looks towny, so maybe my feeling of bad vibes on her is just paranoia. You said I have these generic bad feelings for no particular reason. But hey, look, she said towny things! So it must just be paranoia. That feels to me like putting the idea out there that people suspecting her at that point were just being paranoid and we can now dismiss them. Plus, various people said the same thing about lucy as I did. You were the one going the other way, downplaying the suspicion.

All that said, believing you are bad based on that would mean I would also have to believe lucy is bad. I don't know that I have a bad read on you separated from her. And with her return and hearing more from her, I'm still trying to decide how I feel. I think it's interesting she didn't comment on my answers specifically, despite her explanation. If one of you flipped bad, I would probably suspect the other though at this particular moment.

I also am torn on what I think of Moonwink, because I don't really understand them, and I don't know how to feel about that. I am trying to see where the motivation to say the things that Moonwink has said would come from, and I'm a bit baffled. I feel like they have spent more time trying to fake out nightkill and project possible protections or something than actually trying to sort some starting reads. But I'm not sure if that is just because I don't get what is going on there. Whatever man, I'm going to bed for the night.

I haven't decided if I am staying on Triplehaven or not. I'll read them again tomorrow and see what I think then.

PS My reads frequently suck, so take it all with a grain of salt.

[MartinGG99]

I'm surprised that TH is the top-poster at 18 posts so far lol

If I wanted to make a stupid leap of faith and ignore my past reading mistakes with them I would say they're probably town for this

which I might just to avoid thinking about that

How hard is it to be the top poster with 18 posts?

Why is being the top poster meaningful?

It's more-so that it seems to me unless you're just "one of those people" most mafia have difficulty reaching top-posting for d1. At least, not intentionally. 18 posts by that point, by a player I don't expect to top-post and yet is top-posting with that almost half-way into d1, makes my gut yell they're town. Partially because I've also done that sort of read before and have been right about it.

It's kinda dumb, but it seems to hold up in my experience. Top-posting beyond d1 though I tend to ignore, as wolves can post more easily with the greater amount of content/discussion topics that have occurred by then.

I feel this would only hold if TH would struggle as wolf to have this much input. Is that the case, from past games?

Looking up the exact facts:

On my mafia game with them (as mafia) they had posted around 102 times in a d1 which had 1440 posts. The game also had around 22 players, so plenty to talk about and interact with and I think like 2-3 people posted more than them for that day, if memory serves correctly without having to count every post.

So kinda on the high-end of things, but I think that was aided by the fact that there was a bunch of mechanics happening in that game, even on d1. This game there just isn't.

[Violet]

I almost forgot this game existed even though I registered to the discord server. Great way to make a debut on this forum smh tbh.

[Spacedaisy]

I almost forgot this game existed even though I registered to the discord server. Great way to make a debut on this forum smh tbh.

Your punishment for forgetting the game will be making fun to head reads on everyone in the game based solely on their avatar.

Just kidding. Welcome to the Syndicate!

[Spacedaisy]

Fun to head reads! mobile posting is a trip.

[MartinGG99]

I'll be off for now and likely rest of D1, wish I had more time to spend.

I'll be able to pop back in once a little more than an hour before EoD to change my vote if necessary.

Oh and thing about Dolby, in the off-chance that n1 is my death, was that in a previous game he said he was self-aware that his playstyle was scummy or push-prone

If anything I'd expect to be scumread based off gamestate bc I hadn't been pushed for only doing easyish meta talk

I thought if he reacted with some sort of acknowledgement of that by now then it would be a point in his favor. But instead they haven't posted at all since my vote on them and just disappeared.

[Violet]

what's your experience, read accuracy, and strengths/weaknesses as mafia and town @Spacedaisy @Epignosis

I’m better mafia than town because everyone thinks I’m suspicious all the time anyway. The way I think about things tends to not be like most people so what is just my normal suspicions don’t make sense to others. For the first year I played I was almost always killed but the civ vig when I was town. So I don’t think my read accuracy is much to write home about. I think I can take my town meta pretty easily as mafia though so I don’t know how much that helps you. I’ll look up a couple meta game examples for you in a minute.

I am more of an intuitive player, if the posts get crazy out of hand, I will struggle to keep up. I will never reach that 100 post cap. Also, I’m a slow starter. It takes me a minute to get my feet under me, but my activity increases as we go because I gain confidence. Not much of a shit poster.

What do you want to know about when you ask what my experience is? How long I’ve been playing?

This seems like a genuine answer to me and that makes it slightly town.

[Ruri]

[VOTE: Boquise] aubergine
I can't believe he hasn't posted anything more than a hello yet! D:

Me neither to be fair.

I'm gonna be honest. After the last game I played with you here (which, to be fair, has been my only experience with you), I don't expect you to be active, at least not as active as Boquise. Feel free to prove me wrong though. <3

I see. Cool.

[robyn]

However Epi and Moon being evasive is generally townie, usually when I do this to scum at the start of the day -scum that won't be suspicious d1 who can freely post- tend to answer my questions because that appears *open*.

I'd be inclined to believe lucy's thing here. There's a "fill out this form" and here are the results. Love it. But...

I have a hang up.

Here's the thing hanging, well, up:

What does lucy take away from the people who answered "non-evasively" or "open?" (However you wish to put it).

So I'll be interested in knowing lucy's takeaways from this exercise for people like Spacedaisy, who answered in earnest and didn't make a joke like I did.

it's nai now, because my memory is basically photographic I can use it for later cycles if she doesn't align, and if she is v then I will know her strengths and weaknesses better. it's not information for now, it's for later.

[robyn]

It was on the sus side at that halfway point because - whilst admittedly absent since - it was the only thing you did and it did not develop. Profiling or asking for meta info doesn't have inherent value until you develop reads or read into the reactions received.

@Boquise @Dyslexicon can confirm I don't make reads particularly early, but I'm trying to change that and I'm gonna make a reads list in the morning

[robyn]

I think it's a strategic mistake to vote dizzy d1, therefore I will vote TH, she's pinged me and I can't exactly explain why though

[Ricochet]

what's nai?

[robyn]

what's nai?

not alignment indicative

[robyn]

what's ur read on me Chet

[Ricochet]

I'm still the same. If it's not your MO to detail reads this early, fine, but your questioning method doesn't amount to much on its own. As town, it would be an ok effort, but not cred-gaining in any way. As mafia, it would seem like credible effort to look, but only surface level.

[robyn]

I'm still the same. If it's not your MO to detail reads this early, fine, but your questioning method doesn't amount to much on its own. As town, it would be an ok effort, but not cred-gaining in any way. As mafia, it would seem like credible effort to look, but only surface level.

correct, it's not worth much in way of town cred, but it wasn't a blatant fucking grasp for town cred or anything like that, I just take issue for being scumread for it when I do it in most games, I almost certainly have a scum on my wagon

[robyn]

@Violet I've never played with you before, but tough shit in finale

[TonyStarkPrime]

Epi I learned a lot about formulating reads from you and based on this and Bayesian stuff I’m gonna tell you that I sorta expect your read on Moonwink to be wrong (I have read zero moonwink posts)

Does that mean he's a town read in this game right now?

everyone is circumstantially town while I'm talking to them

[TonyStarkPrime]

my right ear isn't working, I'm stuck in orlando, and I have to get to real analysis in 5.5 hours

[Dyslexicon]

I think it's a strategic mistake to vote dizzy d1, therefore I will vote TH, she's pinged me and I can't exactly explain why though

Bb <3

—-

From a short skim, I probably wouldn’t know how to read Lucy well, but she doesn’t bother me in her approach here. Points for not voting me lol

Mostly popped in to say I’m pretty much busy all day until the evening, some time before EOD.

Also, would like opinions on who me and Rico should kill

[robyn]

my right ear isn't working, I'm stuck in orlando, and I have to get to real analysis in 5.5 hours

ur a math major?

[Dyslexicon]

I'm still the same. If it's not your MO to detail reads this early, fine, but your questioning method doesn't amount to much on its own. As town, it would be an ok effort, but not cred-gaining in any way. As mafia, it would seem like credible effort to look, but only surface level.

correct, it's not worth much in way of town cred, but it wasn't a blatant fucking grasp for town cred or anything like that, I just take issue for being scumread for it when I do it in most games, I almost certainly have a scum on my wagon

Probably a bad assumption. Likelihood probably rand

[robyn]

@Epignosis do you have thoughts on any other slots beyond my own? specifically triple and dizzy?

[Dyslexicon]

[VOTE: TH] aubergine

[robyn]

[VOTE: TH] aubergine

feels like ur baiting me again, but why?

[Ricochet]

[VOTE: TH] aubergine

Porque?

[robyn]

Last year of playing I just chaos'd and dgaf'd - which I don't plan for this game, given its anniversary occasion.

Aww. It would've been cool to have a buddy to chaos with. :3

What do you personally gain from chaos’ing, if town?

does chaos have a specific definition, and can you spoiler you banners in your signature, thanks

[Ricochet]

Last year of playing I just chaos'd and dgaf'd - which I don't plan for this game, given its anniversary occasion.

Aww. It would've been cool to have a buddy to chaos with. :3

What do you personally gain from chaos’ing, if town?

does chaos have a specific definition, and can you spoiler you banners in your signature, thanks

Sure, spoiler'd.

Chaos the way I used to do it was absolute non-collaborative and gimmicky game effort. Not invested in the slightest and disruptive to the point of, well, creating chaos in game. Imagine me just posting pictures of cats or wrinting only omlette au fromage. Full noise.

Chaos in Moonwink's style is rather a doing-whatever-you-want, playing free or gimmicky or improvising or cheeky or whatnot, not adhering to any serious playtone, creating a confusing state of reads and involvement in others' perspective (or at least my own)

[Dyslexicon]

[VOTE: TH] aubergine

feels like ur baiting me again, but why?

I’m not. I wanted to move my vote. I don’t have any strong suspicions myself. TH has been itching in the back of my mind. They came in with very early and loose town reads of me and Daisy. Would actually be interested to check whether that is custom for their mafia play, to shoot out reads like that possibly in a tmi manner. I don’t have the time to check that right now tho. But would be interested to see @TripleHaven’s last games as mafia and town. I know they did say they often have early reads. Also lol meta diving tbh.

I don’t have much direction rn. Not baiting anyone

[Dyslexicon]

Quickly, I kind of liked Lucy’s account of Moon electing to not answer her questions. I think Moon was decently towny in that exchange. Lucy stating a null-scum lean on me a bit against the grain while choosing to vote elsewhere is also not bad, I think. I’d guess genuine caution or feels of whatever kind.

Boq blank voting me is probably also not bad tbh. Not that much of a point if mafia. But also meh. Not everything needs a point or be strategic, but I don’t hate it

[TonyStarkPrime]

my right ear isn't working, I'm stuck in orlando, and I have to get to real analysis in 5.5 hours

ur a math major?

Music

[Dyslexicon]

Please ping me and Rico with suggestions for the extra kill (or if we should holster by writing in different names), plus reasons

[Dyslexicon]

my right ear isn't working, I'm stuck in orlando, and I have to get to real analysis in 5.5 hours

ur a math major?

Music

Not that far off =p

[TonyStarkPrime]

Might recommend blowing up Dolby to motivate him to play

[robyn]

Might recommend blowing up Dolby to motivate him to play

Kim Jung Un's sister is hot tbh

[TripleHaven]

Most players have admitted they either wont be active at all or wont be active until later today

so im sort of just biding my time until then

unordered readlist

martin
dyslexicon
spacedaisy

epig
ricochet

@TripleHaven
I wanna collaborate with you to make a 5 person towncore right now.
Here are my rules though:
1.) I'm okay with it having at most two scum in it right now.
2.) It can NOT include Martin, Dizzy, Ricochet, or Lucy

Right now, assuming we're both in the town core, I want to include SpaceDaisy and Epi, because based on the vibes I get from their interactions, I don't think there's more than one wolf between them, if any. Do you agree with this?

I don't know if you read me town or scum right now. If you do, then Epi and I are the two scum you can have in this towncore -- you with me so far? Going with these assumptions, and the conditions I laid out in rule #2, who would be a good 5th person? Would that 5th person change depending if I was scum or not?

I don't agree to the logic that we should be towncoring people without individually townreading them first. I'm not completely opposed to epi in towncore but you'd have to make the case he is town. Until that point I am perfectly OK with adding space to towncore.

GTH I think you're town.

You've basically left me with no options after banning those 4 players and disagreeing to epi. The only option that has posted more than like 5 times out of that group is jack, who hasn't given much to work with so far. Is there absolutely no way I could convince you on anyone in 2)?

People in #2 are probably gonna die sooner rather than later if they are town, I bet, regardless if they are in our towncore or not. I want a semi-longlasting towncore right now. A towncore with any of those four people isn't gonna matter if they die N1. :3

Why bother speculating on who mafia will kill? Its not even eod yet.

We shouldnt be towncoring people we don't townread, period.

[TripleHaven]

Anyways my thoughts on the gamestate are basically the same as they have been for a while

I have a hard time believing that there are more than 2 scum in the low posters to the point where I think we're already misclearing someone

[TripleHaven]

@Dyslexicon

A town game from me
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/se ... d=16172864

Scum game from me
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... -Automated

[TripleHaven]

Lucy and I were both scum in that game BTW

They were a lot less proactive there than in this game

[Ricochet]

Dead tired, have a guest later and back at 8am courses tomorrow cuz why not. Cannot promise EOD activity.

@Dyslexicon

A town game from me
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/se ... d=16172864

Scum game from me
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... -Automated

Town link doesn't work.

Lucy and I were both scum in that game BTW

They were a lot less proactive there than in this game

Checked the ISO's a page or two, I can see how lucy took her sweet time bantering and talking philosphy and shtuff (300-400 posts in) and made just one or two meta inquiry post, I think, - towards fellow wolf TH, no less - though eventually she reaches the same "I don't make reads this early = I don't have much to express" mindset she expressed in here as well.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I see what you did there, but what you and I did was actually pretty different. And it is the difference that makes me feel like I didn't like your post about lucy.

I went into it not paying much attention to lucy but have a good feeling about her because she appeared to be asking town-minded questions. Then I forced myself to look because I realized I didn't know if she had offered anything of interest or offered any reads or content of her own and when I saw the answer was no, it flipped my feeling on her. I was clear about what had changed my mind.

But you simply said hey the things she did looks towny, so maybe my feeling of bad vibes on her is just paranoia. You said I have these generic bad feelings for no particular reason. But hey, look, she said towny things! So it must just be paranoia. That feels to me like putting the idea out there that people suspecting her at that point were just being paranoid and we can now dismiss them. Plus, various people said the same thing about lucy as I did. You were the one going the other way, downplaying the suspicion.

For the record, I saw Lucy's ping to me asking about meta and then read her first like 3-4 posts where were mostly also about meta. I didn't see any townie things. The only hedge was that it was a small reason to suspect someone.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Lol Violet is in this game, sorta

[Jackofhearts2005]

and there is no post cap

Yes! No post cap! No post cap! No post cap!

[Jackofhearts2005]

kinda interested in epi not snapping at Lucy

That is a little interesting, should one of them flip wolf.

[robyn]

kinda interested in epi not snapping at Lucy

That is a little interesting, should one of them flip wolf.

how likely was it that epi would've snapped at me?

[Jackofhearts2005]

kinda interested in epi not snapping at Lucy

That is a little interesting, should one of them flip wolf.

how likely was it that epi would've snapped at me?

70%? idk