Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[Creature]

Looks like it'll be a Boq v Nate thunderdome. Perhaps finger too.

[Alison]

I'm currently digging through Jay's ISO for spew, focusing on D1 and D2 more strongly (as mentioned before). I'm not going to quote every post because that's a headache, but I'm going to outline general observations and conclusions, and if you want some quotes to illustrate specific observations you're interested in, let me know.

D0
- I think Jay entered the game with a focus on pocketing townies. He projects a lot of energy, enthusiasm, and cheer, and tries to get people to like him by engaging with them in a friendly manner. He also throws a lot of townreads around to get townies to like him; for instance, he has lucy (who I think is very likely town) as a strong townread and gives approving credit to Seanzie (who is flipped town) for a fairly thin read.
- In this context, his inordinate focus on Boq looks good for him, insofar as it reads as though Jay is attempting to pocket Boq along with the rest of the town. Calling Boq an "expert", saying his vibes/entrance were good, etc. read to me as an attempt to ingratiate himself with a strong town player. The "deeply spiritual" read in particular is not one that I'd expect him to make on a mafia buddy.
- Ender suspects that Jay is mafia and has a partner in his town list (lucy, Boquise, Seanzie). He lightly deflects the accusation and focuses on pocketing Ender by calling his exchange "authentic". I'm not sure how to interpret this reaction, as far as the alignments of the three people on the list go. I could see him reacting that way either way.
- His first push of the game is on Creature. I think this is a good look for Creature; he gets voted out fairly often, and I specifically have a history of tunnelling him fairly hard in games. I think this reads more to me like a mafia fishing for an easy suspect, rather than a vote on a buddy, which would be rather risky here.

[Alison]

D1

- I out a townread of Creature, and Jay says my viewpoint is reasonable, but that he continues to be pinged by Creature. This reads to me like a mafioso looking for an excuse to continue wolfreading an LHF when a townie furnishes reasons to believe otherwise. More points for Creature.
- Jay goes around doing the usual wolf agenda stuff of inciting violence between townies. He fans the flames between Seanzie and falcon as well as Rondo and myself, encouraging us to expand on our scumreads for each other. Between his push on Creature and his open incitement of V/V violence, I think Jay is in a fairly opportunistic mode right now. He's established a comfortable position in the town after D0, and he's just looking to put townies in bad positions.
- Jay shades Rondo for voting me after saying he wouldn't OMGUS me. In this context, Rondo had just outed some suspicions of me and criticizes my logic; I think characterizing it as an OMGUS and an inconsistency is very much an attempt to paint Rondo in a bad light, knowing I am already tunnelled on him. Even more town points for Rondo here.
- Jay outs a scumread on Wilgy. interpreting his actions as pushing a scummy narrative. I question that interpretation, citing an alternative way of seeing it that's not townie, and ask him why he figured it was the first interpretation. Jay says my alternative is "plausible", but then claims that he's incredulous that Wilgy is telling the truth and says it's probably "just bull". This is the second time that I've approached him with a correct read and he's placated me with an empty agreement ("your read is plausible", "your read is reasonable") but then diverts straight into discrediting/disagreeing with me. Not to be egoistical, but I get the sense that he was kinda treading on eggshells around me, trying to be careful not to piss me off, especially when I'm defending the people he was trying to push (Creature and Wilgy).
- Jay makes a big case on falcon. Just standard mafia pushing town stuff. The only notable thing is that he sponges off an observation by Nate in doing so. I'm not sure how to interpret that, with regard to Nate's alignment, though.
- Outs a townread of Nate, saying his posts "inspire a sense of unnerving calm in me", but then claims that the read is "meaningless" and "Nate seems okay". It's an odd way to treat Nate, and the hedging comes off to me as being likely to come from someone talking about the partner. It doesn't contain the kind of effusive likeability that he's treated people like lucy or Boq with.

[Alison]

D2

- Jay says he wants to find mafia by looking at who had the worst looking votes on falcon, who was the D1 misexe. This may suggest that scum were hiding offwagon, and that Jay's scrutiny of the falcon wagon would largely turn up town voters. Offwagon voters that haven't flipped are: Rondo, Creature, Boq.
- Asks Wilgy to do two-way interactive reads. Wilgy is not the person I'd have chosen for this task, in terms of playstyle, which suggests that maybe Jay was hoping to give him some nonsensical busywork.
- Shows enthusiasm towards Nate's offer to give VCA and vote count data.
- Tells Marmot that we should think carefully about why Mac died. Given that Mac died townreading Jay, and having an "auto list" of Dizzy, Falcon, Wilgy and Creature, I think it's safe to surmise that he wanted to push the "auto list" as being something that we should follow. Good look for Creature in any case.
- Unaligns Boq and Wilgy because Boq wrote that he respected my read on Wilgy. I don't really get that. I don't know what the scum agenda in it is, since we know Wilgy isn't scum so I dunno what narrative he was trying to push with that.
- Jay invites Marmot to talk more about Boq's suspicion of him. Looks in the vein of his previous posts, where he picks T/T pairs who suspect each other and invites them to expand on their suspicions or to respond to the person suspecting them. Points for Boq, as it looks like he's almost trying to bait Marmot into OMGUSing Boq.
- Characterizes Nate as a "low-key easy target". I don't recall Nate taking much heat D1 or D2, which makes this an odd observation. He could easily be trying to protect his teammate here by making him look like an innocent LHF.
- Jay invites Nate to talk about lucy's scumread of him. In the same vein as his previous posts like this. Points for Nate, here.
- Votes Creature D2, claims Creature posts feel like they're being produced by a machine. Points for Creature.
- Complains about Rondo's thought process being unreadable, outs a mild scumread on fingersplints, but never does anything with it. I dunno if I should make anything of those things; I don't feel confident drawing conclusions just from that, but I am listing it since it caught my eye.
- Backs up Marmot's meta defense of finger. I don't really get his progression from saying he has concerns on finger to saying Marmot is probably right about finger being town. I'd say it's... light negative points for finger, since it looks a bit like he dropped his scumread on his partner when it became easy to, but it could also be TMI.
- Boquise asks Jay who he'd cop check if he had one. Jay says Wilgy, as a Wilgy green flip would give lots of good info and a Wilgy red flip would break the game open because he's dissociated with half the game. Boq is skeptical about this response, and feels that Jay is dismissive of his exercise. I don't put much stock in Jay offhandedly saying he'd want to cop check a townie, but I do put stock in Boq questioning it. The exchange feels authentic and unteamed from Boq. Points for him.

[Alison]

tl;dr conclusion from D0-D2 Jay spew:

- Boq and Creature look good off it. (Rondo and lucy also look good, though I think most people have them cleared anyway.)
- Nate looks bad. Finger a little bad.
- Jay was almost certainly making very opportunistic pushes on early on, and it might be worth reflecting on which LHF he didn't feel inclined to push, because he was very happy to push people like falcon, Wilgy, and Ender. Names that spring to mind include Nate, finger, and Rondo. I suspect the first two, and think the third is almost certainly town.

[Alison]

I think the most important conclusion I drew from that is that Boq looks good off Jay spew. The other points just reinforced reads I already have and increased my confidence in them.

[RondoDimBuckle]

I always vote ender if he is in a game with me

[NateTheLesser]

Still reading, but @RondoDimBuckle what was this about?

Yes. I am going to actively defend Cobalts slot now. I wanted him for 3 days and for 3 days no one wanted him. So he is town now. Thank you. Good bye

Delete this pls

[NateTheLesser]

Boq and Lucy are just town.

Anyway, this kill indicates at least 1 scum inside Me/JJJ/Alison.

Alison wouldnt really be the kill if town though since she got sussed yesterday.

Why does the kill indicate that

I thought the kill directly points to you, by keeping you and Alison alive it makes it confirmed one is mafia or you'd be killed off more expeditiously before a solve can happen

Boq's "wolf in me/JJJ/Alison" NK idea was one of the first things he said D3, before any votes were on the board. Jay's reaction is to question it. Lucy wasn't asked anything but jumps in to point suspicion directly at Jay.

[NateTheLesser]

I always vote ender if he is in a game with me

You got him day one.

[NateTheLesser]

tl;dr conclusion from D0-D2 Jay spew:

- Boq and Creature look good off it. (Rondo and lucy also look good, though I think most people have them cleared anyway.)
- Nate looks bad. Finger a little bad.
- Jay was almost certainly making very opportunistic pushes on early on, and it might be worth reflecting on which LHF he didn't feel inclined to push, because he was very happy to push people like falcon, Wilgy, and Ender. Names that spring to mind include Nate, finger, and Rondo. I suspect the first two, and think the third is almost certainly town.

What do you make of this spew-wise?

@NateTheLesser I still owe Creature a full reassessment, but my initial perception on Day 3 is that a Seanzie kill may point to a town Creature. Seanzie protected him pretty staunchly, while people like myself and a few others that have been anti-Creature much of the game are still here. I wonder if that represents an invitation for us to kill him without the same resistance.

The context is early D3, Jay has 1 vote (Ender), Finger has 1 vote (Rondo), Ender has 2 votes (Jay/Creature). I voted for Creature, and a few minutes later Jay pings me to offer a townread (he came into the day saying the NK was making him reconsider and pull Creature out of POE).

[RondoDimBuckle]

I always vote ender if he is in a game with me

You got him day one.

Yeah its a meme between us you'll notice he voted me too I'm pretty sure

[RondoDimBuckle]

Still reading, but @RondoDimBuckle what was this about?

Yes. I am going to actively defend Cobalts slot now. I wanted him for 3 days and for 3 days no one wanted him. So he is town now. Thank you. Good bye

Delete this pls

Completely wrong game window open pls ignore

[Boquise]

Damn this day is going to go so slow

Why are you ignoring posts???

[RondoDimBuckle]

Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.

I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

I agree it would make no sense for me, if I were mafia, to kill Marmot, my biggest defender. I would have absolutely killed Rondo if I were mafia lol
Little point to this as you can’t really take my word for it, but absolutely correct thinking here.

rude

Why is that rude? It’s not personal. You are widely town read and have been my most vocal critic this game.

I was more meming because I get it I would kill me too

[RondoDimBuckle]

I still have no clue who to vote

[RondoDimBuckle]

[VOTE: Lucy ] aubergine This is a place holder vote I am not actually voting lucy I just dont want to get mod killed if tomorrow gets busy and I doubt anyone else is going to park a vote here without turning into a dumpster fire

[RondoDimBuckle]

no, you know what, I am going with my gut and Saying in a Nate/Boq world where one is wolf Boq is my gut read as town [VOTE: Nate ] aubergine

[Boquise]

So if I just remove Alison and Lucy from the equation.

I dont think it makes much sense of Nate to try to clear both me and Lucy as scum because that makes the game state much more difficult for him.

[NateTheLesser]

Still reading, but @RondoDimBuckle what was this about?

Yes. I am going to actively defend Cobalts slot now. I wanted him for 3 days and for 3 days no one wanted him. So he is town now. Thank you. Good bye

Delete this pls

Completely wrong game window open pls ignore

Oh. I was hoping it was a slip because that would be fun.

[NateTheLesser]

So if I just remove Alison and Lucy from the equation.

I dont think it makes much sense of Nate to try to clear both me and Lucy as scum because that makes the game state much more difficult for him.

The fact that you're not just burying me makes me think I'm right about you.

What do you think of the Lucy post I quoted?

[NateTheLesser]

Oof, this game state. We got a wolf yesterday, people! (Well, no thanks to me)

[NateTheLesser]

Anyway, what do people think the wolf agenda was yesterday? Try to save Jay, or bus Jay?

Because it seems obvious to me that Jay was expecting to be bussed, considering that he didn't try to push anyone or really defend himself. And my play yesterday is not at all compatible with that world.

And frankly regardless of what the plan was to start the day, I don't think there's any way both of Jay's teammates ended up off-wagon. That means AT MOST 1 wolf in me/Lucy/Rondo/Finger/Boq. And AT LEAST 1 wolf in Creature/Alison.

If you're looking for a simple bus, it's Alison lock-voting Jay. If you're looking for a "maybe we can save him but if not I'll bus", it's Creature putting a second vote on Boq and then switching to Jay 12 minutes before EOD.

I guess I could see a world where Rondo or Lucy voted Jay initially and then played around with other wagons in case someone else was pushable, but I think they would have put the nail in Jay's coffin at EOD rather than unvoting.

Boq and Finger were both missing for EOD due to timezone. I suppose they could fit a pattern of "vote on a cw and hope for the best" (Finger voted for Boq, Boq ended up on Lucy). But especially Boq had plenty of prior reasoning to vote Jay there and reap the cred. Not sure what Finger's read on Jay was.

[NateTheLesser]

Looking back at D1, the first two voters for Creature were Jay and Alison, so... unlikely that Jay/Alison/Creature are the exact team. So combined with the above I'd say one of Creature/Alison is almost certainly a wolf, and it's also a difference check. Meaning there'd be a wolf in the rest. I'm town, I'm reading Boq and Lucy as town, so the other wolf is in Rondo/Finger.

Jay did not seem to like me voting Creature early on day 3, and that stands out in hindsight (I haven't completely re-read but I'm about halfway through the day). The post I quoted earlier is the one I'm talking about. So this is the vote I feel best about atm.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Of course we also have to reckon with the gallon of wine Jay poured for us at some point yesterday:

> says he's going to take a different tack and evaluate everyone from the perspective that they're scum
> does this for Creature
> gives a basically neutral read
> stops

[NateTheLesser]

And I know if Creature's scum that sets him up to put a 4th vote on me, but whatever. Hoping people will be around to talk about the points I've made so far.

I have a concert tonight so I'll be mobile-only for the last hour or so of the day. Which is inconvenient!

[NateTheLesser]

@Alison I don't think you responded to this, or if you did I didn't see it:

This kill again points at 1 scum inside me/JJJ/Alison btw so I am feeling smug about being right there.

I don't disagree with your conclusion, but what makes you think the kill points that way?

Because scum is killing around us.

You think scum would kill any of the three of us over Dizzy even if we were all town? We all have considerably more heat than him, and he shielded Ender last day phase.

That's a very fair point that I did not consider.
I think Dizzy was pretty pushable until yesterday, so sure, maybe he could be killed if all of us are town, but there's also the seanize kill

I think it's fair to say the Seanzie kill points there. I was curious why you thought the Dizzy kill points there too.

I don't disagree that there is very likely a scum in us three.

I'm trying to reconcile the softness of this agreement with the fact that you came into today lock-voting Jay. From your POV I'd expect you to be certain that there's a wolf in those three. Especially since, and correct me if I'm wrong, near EOD you were saying that if Ender v then both Jay and Boq are wolves.

[Boquise]

So if I just remove Alison and Lucy from the equation.

I dont think it makes much sense of Nate to try to clear both me and Lucy as scum because that makes the game state much more difficult for him.

The fact that you're not just burying me makes me think I'm right about you.

What do you think of the Lucy post I quoted?

Tho what would the game plan be? Burying seems sorta short-sighted?

Which Lucy post?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Ugh I love waking up to this content from nate reeeee
[VOTE: creature ] aubergine

[Boquise]

with the risk of being super dumb, I think Nate is town tbh

[robyn]

[VOTE: Rondo] aubergine

since i can’t sleep, nate is hot (physically), and imagine this vote is me parking a truck horizontally across 7 parking spots in a costco parking lot

[RondoDimBuckle]

[VOTE: Rondo] aubergine

since i can’t sleep, nate is hot (physically), and imagine this vote is me parking a truck horizontally across 7 parking spots in a costco parking lot

Hahahaha I mean turnabout is fair play

[NateTheLesser]

So if I just remove Alison and Lucy from the equation.

I dont think it makes much sense of Nate to try to clear both me and Lucy as scum because that makes the game state much more difficult for him.

The fact that you're not just burying me makes me think I'm right about you.

What do you think of the Lucy post I quoted?

Tho what would the game plan be? Burying seems sorta short-sighted?

Which Lucy post?

Oh you're here! Well, leaving me alive after shielding Jay, and killing Marmot who was heavily sussing me certainly makes it seem like I'm the desired mischop for today. I tend to endgame a lot, so I've developed a keen sense for when I'm the sacrificial lamb.

The post in this quote is the one I'm talking about. Pointing sus directly at Jay very early in Day 3 (before he'd picked up any votes):

Boq and Lucy are just town.

Anyway, this kill indicates at least 1 scum inside Me/JJJ/Alison.

Alison wouldnt really be the kill if town though since she got sussed yesterday.

Why does the kill indicate that

I thought the kill directly points to you, by keeping you and Alison alive it makes it confirmed one is mafia or you'd be killed off more expeditiously before a solve can happen

Boq's "wolf in me/JJJ/Alison" NK idea was one of the first things he said D3, before any votes were on the board. Jay's reaction is to question it. Lucy wasn't asked anything but jumps in to point suspicion directly at Jay.

[NateTheLesser]

nate is hot (physically)

😳

[NateTheLesser]

with the risk of being super dumb, I think Nate is town tbh

I will feel extra dumb if you're a wolf, but at this point I'm leaning into it. Gotta start somewhere.

[NateTheLesser]

And as people catch up on my vote analysis posts and stuff, I'd love opinions on my groupings. A lot of it is game-state stuff wrt where I would expect the wolf votes to be in prior days, which is obviously subjective and you all may have different ideas about how to read those tea leaves.

[NateTheLesser]

Ugh I love waking up to this content from nate reeeee
[VOTE: creature ] aubergine

More words

[NateTheLesser]

I have like 90 minutes and then I'll be pretty spotty on mobile.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Ugh I love waking up to this content from nate reeeee
[VOTE: creature ] aubergine

More words

You dare use my own spells against me potter?!

I came to the same conclusion that you look terrible after the night kill and Marmont dying makes you look worse. What wolf does that? Unless this is you outing and trying to be bold faced against it but I don't get that vibe from you all game. You've been under stated and in the background helping so unless we were closer to another wolf you making yourself so obvious here is nuts. Plus you were a "forgone conclusion" since the first half and it doesn't sit well with me that thread was so fucking quiet. So changing it up

[Boquise]

Looking back at D1, the first two voters for Creature were Jay and Alison, so... unlikely that Jay/Alison/Creature are the exact team. So combined with the above I'd say one of Creature/Alison is almost certainly a wolf, and it's also a difference check. Meaning there'd be a wolf in the rest. I'm town, I'm reading Boq and Lucy as town, so the other wolf is in Rondo/Finger.

Jay did not seem to like me voting Creature early on day 3, and that stands out in hindsight (I haven't completely re-read but I'm about halfway through the day). The post I quoted earlier is the one I'm talking about. So this is the vote I feel best about atm.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Of course we also have to reckon with the gallon of wine Jay poured for us at some point yesterday:

> says he's going to take a different tack and evaluate everyone from the perspective that they're scum
> does this for Creature
> gives a basically neutral read
> stops

Creature is one of those players I have sussed for a major part of the game. I agree with you that if there is a wolf between Creature and Alison, it is Creature. I disagree with it being a different check though. If Creature is town, I won't start scum reading Alison. She is a lock.

My weakest town read is fingers, so with that poe it would be Creature/Fingers, but I am not sure about it.

Rondo came in now and voted with you on Creature. That means to me that Rondo is not scum with you because at this point scum would be better to just let you go. Which means I am at least reading one of you correctly.

[NateTheLesser]

It's already pretty late for Fingersplints, isn't it? Wonder if she won't make it to vote..
She was here at the start of the phase.

[NateTheLesser]

Looking back at D1, the first two voters for Creature were Jay and Alison, so... unlikely that Jay/Alison/Creature are the exact team. So combined with the above I'd say one of Creature/Alison is almost certainly a wolf, and it's also a difference check. Meaning there'd be a wolf in the rest. I'm town, I'm reading Boq and Lucy as town, so the other wolf is in Rondo/Finger.

Jay did not seem to like me voting Creature early on day 3, and that stands out in hindsight (I haven't completely re-read but I'm about halfway through the day). The post I quoted earlier is the one I'm talking about. So this is the vote I feel best about atm.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Of course we also have to reckon with the gallon of wine Jay poured for us at some point yesterday:

> says he's going to take a different tack and evaluate everyone from the perspective that they're scum
> does this for Creature
> gives a basically neutral read
> stops

Creature is one of those players I have sussed for a major part of the game. I agree with you that if there is a wolf between Creature and Alison, it is Creature. I disagree with it being a different check though. If Creature is town, I won't start scum reading Alison. She is a lock.

My weakest town read is fingers, so with that poe it would be Creature/Fingers, but I am not sure about it.

Rondo came in now and voted with you on Creature. That means to me that Rondo is not scum with you because at this point scum would be better to just let you go. Which means I am at least reading one of you correctly.

I don't think it has to be a difference check, it would just be very bold distancing for Jay and Alison to make Creature a wagon on D1. So I think w!Creature would definitely look good for Alison.

My reason for thinking one of them must be a wolf is that if they're both town then it would mean Jay's EOD wagon was all town, which is not what I would expect.

You have Alison as lock town?

[Boquise]

yeah Alison has gunned for JJJ for quite a long time so she is town tbh

[robyn]

nate is hot (physically)

that’s not how i expected you to respond

[Creature]

I'm a bit stressed rn

[Creature]

Alison, where are you?

[robyn]

I'm a bit stressed rn

speak now or forever hold your mind

[Creature]

I'm a bit stressed rn

speak now or forever hold your mind

idk what to do and I'm hoping for Alison to come in hopefully to guide town to the light

[Creature]

My POE is still Boq/finger/Nate and my mislynch will mean we'll have to find the town among them.

[robyn]

[VOTE: Nate] aubergine

[robyn]

ello @NateTheLesser