Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[robyn]

marmot was also confirmed town tunneling nate which would've been this cycle, I reckon the NK makes Nate too scummy after his acts yesterday

[robyn]

boq/fingers perhaps

[NateTheLesser]

Here's all the spreadsheets. VCA gets much more interesting once there's a red flip, so I'll be digging into that.

Day 1 Votes:

Spoiler: show

Day 2 Votes:

Spoiler: show

Day 3 Votes:
(The dotted line is where the 24hr break was)

Spoiler: show

Day 4 Votes:

Spoiler: show

Waterfall:

Spoiler: show

EOD Wagons:

Spoiler: show

[robyn]

bless

[robyn]

why do u town read boq @RondoDimBuckle

thoughts on Alison @RondoDimBuckle

[NateTheLesser]

Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.

I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

Tell me about your decision to try to wagon me at EOD at a moment where it seemed like Jay was going to go over.

I imagine I'll be talking about this a lot today. Yesterday I was townreading Boq/Jay/Lucy and adding one of Fingers/Creature (because I didn't think they were w/w) to get 4 town, leaving a POE of Marmot/you/Rondo/(the other of Fingers/Creature). I was most interested in Marmot but nobody else seemed to be. And at that point leading up to EOD the other wagons were Jay/Boq/Lucy, my townreads. So I switched to you both because you were in my POE and because you were in a few other POEs as well; off-hand you were POEd by Boq, Lucy, Rondo, Marmot, Fingers, and not all of those could be wolves even if I was completely wrong about my townreads.

Talk to me about your Jay townread, please. What was it about him that so convinced you he was town that you would vote to save him?

I've been townreading him all game, so it wasn't really a change. But I thought the Boq/Jay interaction on D3 was t/t. More towny on Boq's end, but I also agreed with his read that it was a good look for Jay, which supported my existing townread there. So D4, Boq and Jay were kind of my starting points for building a town core. But the gamestate was pretty dead and nobody was really solving together the first half+ of the day, so I decided to actively treat those two as town and try to solve with them and see if anything shook out (especially building a further town core). Boq was game, Jay didn't really engage with it.

If you are clearing Boq here? Am I reading that right?

Are you aware that you are condemning yourself in a Boq/Nate world? If so why clear Boq?

This post is so confusing to me

I was explaining where my head was at yesterday, but yeah I still townread Boq, and yeah that could be inconvenient for me if people end up convinced that there's a wolf in the two of us.

The nugget of my Boq read is that I thought it unlikely that he would start talking about the NK pointing to a wolf in him/Jay/Alison if he were a wolf, and I think it's doubly unlikely that he would do that (and keep pushing it D4) if he knew there were two wolves in there. And even if it were some galaxy brain gambit to bus Jay and look great off of it, he didn't vote for Jay yesterday.

[RondoDimBuckle]

why do u town read boq @RondoDimBuckle

thoughts on Alison @RondoDimBuckle

You must have missed it

boq/nate only has 1 wolf imo

It doesn't feel like JJJ was bussing this game. So I'd say the players he put a significant effort to push are more likely town (I don't remember who he pushed though).

On the other hand, I'm suspicious of the players JJJ townread for lame reasons. Boq and Nate are two names I have in mind.

Thats what I was thinking as well. I still feel like shielding boq

I don't get the Boq shield. He has been like only pushing town yesterday and I feel like he would know better than Nate/lucy.

I feel like he is seeing the game state similarly to me, he feels unpartnered in his pushes

He has also continued to shield me when he could have easily just stamped a scum read there. He has also protected Lucy from me which I dont see a wolf doing when he could just as easily said nothing

But the more that people isolate down a POE the less confident I get. Boq needs to show up and talk some before I commit to anything Creature is right that he looks kinda bad EOD. But usually when he shows up he talks sense

[NateTheLesser]

I need to eat, I'll be back.

[NateTheLesser]

I like the wim, Lucy.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.

I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

Tell me about your decision to try to wagon me at EOD at a moment where it seemed like Jay was going to go over.

I imagine I'll be talking about this a lot today. Yesterday I was townreading Boq/Jay/Lucy and adding one of Fingers/Creature (because I didn't think they were w/w) to get 4 town, leaving a POE of Marmot/you/Rondo/(the other of Fingers/Creature). I was most interested in Marmot but nobody else seemed to be. And at that point leading up to EOD the other wagons were Jay/Boq/Lucy, my townreads. So I switched to you both because you were in my POE and because you were in a few other POEs as well; off-hand you were POEd by Boq, Lucy, Rondo, Marmot, Fingers, and not all of those could be wolves even if I was completely wrong about my townreads.

Talk to me about your Jay townread, please. What was it about him that so convinced you he was town that you would vote to save him?

I've been townreading him all game, so it wasn't really a change. But I thought the Boq/Jay interaction on D3 was t/t. More towny on Boq's end, but I also agreed with his read that it was a good look for Jay, which supported my existing townread there. So D4, Boq and Jay were kind of my starting points for building a town core. But the gamestate was pretty dead and nobody was really solving together the first half+ of the day, so I decided to actively treat those two as town and try to solve with them and see if anything shook out (especially building a further town core). Boq was game, Jay didn't really engage with it.

If you are clearing Boq here? Am I reading that right?

Are you aware that you are condemning yourself in a Boq/Nate world? If so why clear Boq?

This post is so confusing to me

I was explaining where my head was at yesterday, but yeah I still townread Boq, and yeah that could be inconvenient for me if people end up convinced that there's a wolf in the two of us.

The nugget of my Boq read is that I thought it unlikely that he would start talking about the NK pointing to a wolf in him/Jay/Alison if he were a wolf, and I think it's doubly unlikely that he would do that (and keep pushing it D4) if he knew there were two wolves in there. And even if it were some galaxy brain gambit to bus Jay and look great off of it, he didn't vote for Jay yesterday.

Thanks for the breakdown

[NateTheLesser]

Day 3 VCA could be huge, since Jay was in contention the entire day. Lucy is the only Jay voter from D3 that's still alive (the others were Ender/Dizzy/Marmot). She did end up on Ender, but her vote for Jay was less than an hour before EOD and pushed Jay into the Jay/Ender/Creature tie. Pretty good look.

[Alison]

What about Boq/Jay on D3 looked T/T to you specifically? Just the "olive branch" thing?

Why did Ender/Dizzy's flips not shake your view of that at all?

Answer the question please. (Or quote where you did if I didn't see it.)

[Boquise]

boq/nate only has 1 wolf imo

It doesn't feel like JJJ was bussing this game. So I'd say the players he put a significant effort to push are more likely town (I don't remember who he pushed though).

On the other hand, I'm suspicious of the players JJJ townread for lame reasons. Boq and Nate are two names I have in mind.

Thats what I was thinking as well. I still feel like shielding boq

I don't get the Boq shield. He has been like only pushing town yesterday and I feel like he would know better than Nate/lucy.

Huh?

Why do you think Boq would know better/have better pushes than Nate/lucy?

I put his mafia experience near to yours/JJJ/Mac, which, like JJJ, makes his only pushing town really bad for him. Also I see his wolf playstyle more as openwolfing/wolfsiding than deepwolfing/townsiding and his play here fits the former.

My town game is infamously bad tbh

The Seanzie kill did point at JJJ and I initially scum read him for it, but his approach to me completely pocketed me

[Boquise]

I know I look super bad here but it is what it is and I am used to it tbh

Alison and Lucy is always town
I guess Creature too even though his play in this game tilts me tbh

Who else voted JJJ? I still believe in my Rondo read

[Boquise]

Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.

I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

Tell me about your decision to try to wagon me at EOD at a moment where it seemed like Jay was going to go over.

I imagine I'll be talking about this a lot today. Yesterday I was townreading Boq/Jay/Lucy and adding one of Fingers/Creature (because I didn't think they were w/w) to get 4 town, leaving a POE of Marmot/you/Rondo/(the other of Fingers/Creature). I was most interested in Marmot but nobody else seemed to be. And at that point leading up to EOD the other wagons were Jay/Boq/Lucy, my townreads. So I switched to you both because you were in my POE and because you were in a few other POEs as well; off-hand you were POEd by Boq, Lucy, Rondo, Marmot, Fingers, and not all of those could be wolves even if I was completely wrong about my townreads.

Talk to me about your Jay townread, please. What was it about him that so convinced you he was town that you would vote to save him?

I've been townreading him all game, so it wasn't really a change. But I thought the Boq/Jay interaction on D3 was t/t. More towny on Boq's end, but I also agreed with his read that it was a good look for Jay, which supported my existing townread there. So D4, Boq and Jay were kind of my starting points for building a town core. But the gamestate was pretty dead and nobody was really solving together the first half+ of the day, so I decided to actively treat those two as town and try to solve with them and see if anything shook out (especially building a further town core). Boq was game, Jay didn't really engage with it.

If you are clearing Boq here? Am I reading that right?

Are you aware that you are condemning yourself in a Boq/Nate world? If so why clear Boq?

This post is so confusing to me

I was explaining where my head was at yesterday, but yeah I still townread Boq, and yeah that could be inconvenient for me if people end up convinced that there's a wolf in the two of us.

The nugget of my Boq read is that I thought it unlikely that he would start talking about the NK pointing to a wolf in him/Jay/Alison if he were a wolf, and I think it's doubly unlikely that he would do that (and keep pushing it D4) if he knew there were two wolves in there. And even if it were some galaxy brain gambit to bus Jay and look great off of it, he didn't vote for Jay yesterday.

Yes, my play yesterday doesn't make sense in a partnership with JJJ tbh

[Alison]

I think Nate/finger is the world that makes the most sense to me here.

[Boquise]

boq/nate only has 1 wolf imo

It doesn't feel like JJJ was bussing this game. So I'd say the players he put a significant effort to push are more likely town (I don't remember who he pushed though).

On the other hand, I'm suspicious of the players JJJ townread for lame reasons. Boq and Nate are two names I have in mind.

Thats what I was thinking as well. I still feel like shielding boq

I don't get the Boq shield. He has been like only pushing town yesterday and I feel like he would know better than Nate/lucy.

I feel like he is seeing the game state similarly to me, he feels unpartnered in his pushes

He has also continued to shield me when he could have easily just stamped a scum read there. He has also protected Lucy from me which I dont see a wolf doing when he could just as easily said nothing

Ironically JJJ defended him for the same reason

JJJ cased me and had me as a wolf read.

There was no need for scum to be cannibalistic during that game state

[Boquise]

I'm slightly considering the world in which JJJ coached lucy to ask for unvotes last EOD. He was clearly online and I feel like he would plan something to set his teammates deep after his lynch.

Also couldn't lucy have just voted JJJ to prevent a tie?

I thought Lucy's commandeering of the last minutes were townie due to JJJ's flip

[Alison]

But in a Nate/finger world, why does Nate defend Boq here? Surely Boq is the one misexe they can conceivably obtain?

[Boquise]

Four correct clears means that we have a POE that automatically wins the game. I know I am town and I have three people I am clearing, which gives me a POE I am fairly certain wins the game. If everyone else agrees with my three clears (lucy, Rondo, Creature), then being able to find a confident town in Alison, finger, Boquise, or Nate wins us the game.

I reluctantly agree about Creature, but I agree about Rondo and Lucy

[Boquise]

But in a Nate/finger world, why does Nate defend Boq here? Surely Boq is the one misexe they can conceivably obtain?

Yea I think Nate is townie still
He is in my poe because I was wrong about JJJ

[fingersplints]

glad you all were right about JJJ

[fingersplints]

Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.

I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

I agree it would make no sense for me, if I were mafia, to kill Marmot, my biggest defender. I would have absolutely killed Rondo if I were mafia lol
Little point to this as you can’t really take my word for it, but absolutely correct thinking here.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.

I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

I agree it would make no sense for me, if I were mafia, to kill Marmot, my biggest defender. I would have absolutely killed Rondo if I were mafia lol
Little point to this as you can’t really take my word for it, but absolutely correct thinking here.

rude

[fingersplints]

boq/nate and finger is the team?

I really am not sure how viable finger is at this point. She has been so inactive the wolf team would have to know she is going to get policed at some point just because she has no content. Maybe this is ridiculous to say but if finger is a wolf then nate/boq would have to be the deep wolf and then nate wouldnt be protecting JJJ and Boq wouldnt be pushing towny people. So I dunno if Finger is wolf at this point purely on end of game outcome? Does this make sense?

I agree with the idea that if I were wolf than the wolf team would have long ago bussed me when I was getting a lot of attention.

I do take issue with calling my posting “no content” and “so inactive”
We get it. You think I don’t post enough by your standards. By my standard you post way way way way way more than is necessary.
I have been contributing in my own way.

[fingersplints]

Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.

I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

I agree it would make no sense for me, if I were mafia, to kill Marmot, my biggest defender. I would have absolutely killed Rondo if I were mafia lol
Little point to this as you can’t really take my word for it, but absolutely correct thinking here.

rude

Why is that rude? It’s not personal. You are widely town read and have been my most vocal critic this game.

[fingersplints]

Nate’s voting spreadsheets is reminding me of a game where someone (I think maybe BoKnows) posted some charts or spreadsheets, and got a lot of town cred for it but ended up being mafia.

[fingersplints]

I think some good points have been made as to why certain people are more townie but looking at the list I don’t really trust anyone who is left.

Like I appreciate the EOD for Lucy still looks good, but I’m still paranoid that that was planned with Jay to make her look good.

[fingersplints]

fingersplints

Creature
RondoDimBuckle

Alison
lucy

NateTheLesser
Boquise

[fingersplints]

That’s where my head is currently at. I spent a lot of this game suspecting and voting Creature, so I’m pretty surprised I have them at top but that’s where I feel best atm

[Boquise]

Do you suss me solely for how we have clashed?

[Alison]

Why do you suspect lucy could have been faking her EOD play in cahoots with Jay, but not Rondo? Do you townread Rondo independently/scumread lucy independently?

[fingersplints]

No, I don’t suspect you solely because we have clashed. You’ll notice I have also clashed with Rondo but he is higher up on the list, so I’m not only suspecting for clashing

[fingersplints]

Why do you suspect lucy could have been faking her EOD play in cahoots with Jay, but not Rondo? Do you townread Rondo independently/scumread lucy independently?

Yes this. Independent read
But I’m taking EOD into consideration, so unlikely to vote there today which would leave me with Nate or Boq more likely (also still possible to be you but seem more town to me)
If I get time today I’ll try and reread Lucy to make sense of why I feel that way. But my time might be better spent on deciding if a Nate and boq team fit with Jay as that’s who I’m left with

[Alison]

Why do you suspect lucy could have been faking her EOD play in cahoots with Jay, but not Rondo? Do you townread Rondo independently/scumread lucy independently?

Yes this. Independent read
But I’m taking EOD into consideration, so unlikely to vote there today which would leave me with Nate or Boq more likely (also still possible to be you but seem more town to me)
If I get time today I’ll try and reread Lucy to make sense of why I feel that way. But my time might be better spent on deciding if a Nate and boq team fit with Jay as that’s who I’m left with

Why does Boq insist on a wolf in Alison/Boq/Jay if the team is Boq/Jay/Nate?

[fingersplints]

Why do you suspect lucy could have been faking her EOD play in cahoots with Jay, but not Rondo? Do you townread Rondo independently/scumread lucy independently?

Yes this. Independent read
But I’m taking EOD into consideration, so unlikely to vote there today which would leave me with Nate or Boq more likely (also still possible to be you but seem more town to me)
If I get time today I’ll try and reread Lucy to make sense of why I feel that way. But my time might be better spent on deciding if a Nate and boq team fit with Jay as that’s who I’m left with

Why does Boq insist on a wolf in Alison/Boq/Jay if the team is Boq/Jay/Nate?

To clear teammate after wolf flip

[NateTheLesser]

What about Boq/Jay on D3 looked T/T to you specifically? Just the "olive branch" thing?

Why did Ender/Dizzy's flips not shake your view of that at all?

Answer the question please. (Or quote where you did if I didn't see it.)

I didn't think w!Jay would back off t!Boq there, because Boq's wagon was starting to get some traction. In hindsight it worked out for him, since he switched to Ender who eventually went over.

With Ender, the late votes that put him over the top were Boq/Lucy/Dizzy, two of my townreads and a town flip, so it didn't look like a save and didn't change my opinion on Jay. The Dizzy kill I thought looked worse for Marmot, because Dizzy had been pressing Marmot pretty hard earlier in the day.

I'm often wrong, but I come by my wrong opinions honestly.

[NateTheLesser]

Nate’s voting spreadsheets is reminding me of a game where someone (I think maybe BoKnows) posted some charts or spreadsheets, and got a lot of town cred for it but ended up being mafia.

I do them regardless of my alignment, so I shouldn't get town cred for it. But I think they can be especially helpful on a forum like this where there's not an easy way to see a complete vote history. I'm working on an analysis of D3 votes now.

[Creature]

Damn I don't think I'll have time for this game anymore

I'm still at Boq > Nate

[Boquise]

Now when jurying is over, I will have more time to play. It is 01:15 am though.

I have too many town reads.
I think Alison is town
Rondo is town
Lucy is town
Fingers and Nate are probably town
Creature did vote JJJ and plays like Creature so like. Idk.

Will have to re-examine things.

[Boquise]

No, I don’t suspect you solely because we have clashed. You’ll notice I have also clashed with Rondo but he is higher up on the list, so I’m not only suspecting for clashing

Elaborate?

[Boquise]

Regarding Fingers, I have played with players similar to her archetype before and they are almost always town and we almost always clash so that's a thing.

[Boquise]

Damn I don't think I'll have time for this game anymore

I'm still at Boq > Nate

I wish you actually engaged with the posts I have tagged you in

[robyn]

Now when jurying is over, I will have more time to play. It is 01:15 am though.

I have too many town reads.
I think Alison is town
Rondo is town
Lucy is town
Fingers and Nate are probably town
Creature did vote JJJ and plays like Creature so like. Idk.

Will have to re-examine things.

make a poe

[Boquise]

Now when jurying is over, I will have more time to play. It is 01:15 am though.

I have too many town reads.
I think Alison is town
Rondo is town
Lucy is town
Fingers and Nate are probably town
Creature did vote JJJ and plays like Creature so like. Idk.

Will have to re-examine things.

make a poe

That's what the last line means tbh
I have written earlier today however that Nate and Fingers are my poe and maybe Creature (but very hard to place). It is just that I feel conflicted.

What's your poe?

[robyn]

[VOTE: Nate] aubergine

[robyn]

I won't be on my phone tomorrow at all during work, I'll hop on at 4ish

[RondoDimBuckle]

Now when jurying is over, I will have more time to play. It is 01:15 am though.

I have too many town reads.
I think Alison is town
Rondo is town
Lucy is town
Fingers and Nate are probably town
Creature did vote JJJ and plays like Creature so like. Idk.

Will have to re-examine things.

Same, I will be free way later tonight I will need to put my vote down before I sleep in case work is too busy for me to do anything tomorrow
make a poe

That's what the last line means tbh
I have written earlier today however that Nate and Fingers are my poe and maybe Creature (but very hard to place). It is just that I feel conflicted.

What's your poe?

[NateTheLesser]

(I got sidetracked by the champs jury reveal, but I'm back at it)

Okay, the votes of Day 3! Why Day 3? Jay was a wagon for the entire day, so we should be able to find votes that helped him survive. (His first 3 voters were Ender/Dizzy/Marmot and they were the only ones to vote for him for almost the entire phase, so I think it's safe to say that the plan was to save him not to bus him)

To make it easier to see the votes I'm about to talk about, I highlighted all the votes of players that are still alive:

Spoiler: show

After going through them all, this is my ranking of our respective D3 vote histories, from most town to least:

Lucy
- Votes: Marmot, unvote, Jay, Ender
- Put Marmot on the board when Jay had 1 vote, but then she unvoted after the 24hr break. Voted Jay less than an hour from EOD, which put Jay in a tie with Ender/Creature, this vote looks really good. Tempered somewhat by switching from Jay to Ender (as the 5th vote) a half hour later.

Creature
- Votes: Ender, Nate, Finger
- 2nd vote on Ender early in the day, which made Ender the first real cw. But later in the day put a single vote on me and then a single vote on Finger, which were wagons that didn't really do much to help Jay.

Nate
- Votes: Creature
- First vote on Creature early on, it turned into one of the main counterwagons.

Fingersplints
- Votes: Creature
- Third vote on Creature (at this point Jay had 1).

Boq
- Votes: Alison, Lucy, Ender
- After arguing with Jay, puts a first vote on Alison. Closer to EOD puts a lone vote on Lucy. In the last hour switches to Ender. I think the switch from Alison to Lucy looks good here, because Alison was a 3 vote wagon at the time (it was Alison/Ender/Creature with 3, Jay with 1). Didn't really put Jay in more danger but staying on that wagon would probably have been better if the goal was helping Jay. Ender vote is pretty bad, had the effect of pushing Ender ahead of Jay/Creature.

Alison
- Votes: Ender
- 3rd vote for Ender, pushing him ahead of Jay/Creature (and herself, some credit for it also being self pres)

Rondo
- Votes: Finger, Ender, Boq, Finger, Creature
- His two Finger votes were single votes so those aren't too significant. And the Ender vote was relatively early and only lasted 20 minutes or so. But he was the 2nd vote on Boq which tied Boq with Jay, and then later was the 3rd vote for Creature which pushed Creature ahead of Jay into a tie with Ender.


Also worth noting is that Jay's main pushes were Ender and Boq
Voters for Ender: Creature, Rondo, Alison, Boq, Lucy
Voters for Boq: Rondo


That's just basing it on raw VCA, next I want to look into actual vote reasoning and see if anything stands out. The above could shift around based on that.

[Creature]

Damn this day is going to go so slow