Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tell me you townread me.

gth yes

[Marmot]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

Spoiler: show

In forum mafia, a flash wagon (formerly known as a “CFD”, although that term has since been deprecated due to racist connotations) is when the composition of a wagon changes dramatically during the final hours or even minutes of a day phase. When a flash wagon occurs, a player that has been at not risk at all throughout the day can be suddenly in danger of being executed, and players that seem to be the go-to execute may suddenly find themselves at zero votes. The phenomenon has been much-maligned as anti-town by players who desire stability and predictability, but these players are wrong. In this essay, I will give three reasons why flash wagons are pro-town – namely, that they create informational imbalances in favor of the town, that they can be used to garner authentic reactions from players, and that they can disrupt undesirably stagnant game states. Then, I will rebut some common but ill-informed objections to flash wagons to prove their superiority as a mafia strategy.

In a normal game of forum mafia (ie. without bastard elements or experimental changes that affect the nature of the game), the town tend to be the uninformed majority, and the mafia tend to be the informed minority. Thus, having more information is the mafia’s strength, while having more raw power is the town’s strength. The mafia do not only have more information in terms of knowing the alignments of each player, but they are also able to coordinate and scheme in mafia chat. Because town players are generally honest about their reads and intentions, this means that the mafia will have a strong idea as to how both town and mafia players will behave, allowing them to predict the outcome of the day, or gauge how certain players will vote. As a result, it is quite common to hear sentiments like “A will probably vote B, so we should leave them alive”, or “X will shield Y as long as we’re alive; if we intend to misexe Y, we should nightkill X” in mafia chat.

Flash wagons, because of their sudden, unpredictable and chaotic nature, upset the informational advantage that the mafia has. They are less able to predict the outcome of a day as long as town holds the threat of a flash wagon over them. In the fast-moving intensity of a flash wagon, a townie may well vote someone that they have listed as a townread, or vote to save someone that they previously scumread, when they would never do so in slower wagon formations. As a result, mafia find it more difficult to coordinate their actions, and find town players more unpredictable and volatile. This unpredictability strips away their informational advantage; mafia are just as lost as the next town player in terms of figuring out what’s going to happen, or what’s going on.

This frantic environment leads us to the next strength of flash wagons: they create situations where authentic reactions can be gathered from players. It is more difficult for mafia to plan out a convincing-looking reaction when they have only a few seconds, rather than minutes or hours, to craft their posts. In contrast, the genuine fluidity of townie thought shines in the hectic context of a flash wagon. Oftentimes, many slots that were generally regarded as suspicious can clear themselves as being town through their “unfakeable” reactions to a flash wagon, while mafia may expose themselves by being stilted or awkward, especially if their plan for the day phase has fallen apart.

This effect is amplified by being able to do vote-count analysis later on in the game. For instance, if a town player is the consensus wagon all day, and a mafia player is suddenly flash wagoned and goes over, then players who unhesitatingly pushed the flash wagon over, and especially the person who started it, may be cleared from that through vote-count analysis later on in the game. Conversely, even if a mafia player was on the chopping block and a town player gets flash wagoned to save them, the identities of the remaining mafia members can often be exposed by examining who appeared to be overly enthusiastic for the flash wagon.

The final advantage of flash wagons is that it allows town to shake-up an otherwise stagnant game state. Often, townies experience an eerie feeling that there is too much consensus about the person being voted out, questioning why the mafia members are so happy to let a teammate swing. (This is known as “Dead Air Dead Villager”, or DADV, and is a highly accurate tell that the town is misexecuting someone.) However, because consensus is so strong on this person, even if they suspect that the victim is town, they don’t have a way to remedy this stagnant game state.

This is where flash wagons come in. By spicing up the game with a rapidly-formed alternative wagon, you can provide the village with a strong and dynamic alternative to the consensus wagon that you no longer support. Even if your flash wagon does not target a mafia, at the very least it will shake town out of their rut and force them to seriously consider and re-evaluate the game rather than sleepwalking into a misexecution. As mafia, it is important to carefully manipulate the gamestate to lead town into complacency, infighting and other anti-town modes of thought. Similarly, it is important as town to manipulate the gamestate in your favor, and that means fighting against stagnancy and “shrug exes”, where nobody really seems to care about who goes over and just votes some random player who is bad at defending themselves.

Despite these clear benefits, certain delinquents have taken it upon themselves to publicly oppose flash wagons through ignorant reasoning. I will now rebut two of the most common objections against flash wagons.

The first objection is that flash wagons are misguided because the consensus wagon at EOD is bound to be based on a full day phase’s worth of analysis and logic, whereas the flash wagon is based on gut instinct, or a more nebulous sense that is something wrong. Critics of flash wagons sometimes claim that it is “throwing away 48 hours in exchange for 15 minutes”. This objection is wrong. Just because more time was put into coming up with a conclusion does not mean that conclusion is more likely to be correct. Another way to see it is that the mafia have had 48 hours to manipulate you throughout the day phase, but in the heat of the moment during a flash wagon, it is extremely difficult for them to do so. Thus, the “logic” that you engaged in throughout the day phase could easily be misguided, especially in the kinds of stagnant gamestates that flash wagons are most effective in, and should not be automatically considered to be more accurate than your gut instincts.

The second objection is that if a flash wagon hits a townie, it can be disastrous, as the consensus suspect from the previous day phase continues to be unresolved, and town has now lost an extra player, and another one from the nightkill, without moving the game forward or flipping their previous suspect. This, too, stems from a misguided understanding of flash wagons. As explained above, flash wagons provide a bevy of information that easily allow you to progress the game. If you can clear three people for making “unfakeable posts” during a frantic EOD, then you have gained something from the flash wagon, even if it hit a townie. Even the previous consensus suspect that was saved via the flash wagon can be cleared if town collectively realizes that they were the victim of DADV. It is a fallacy to assume that just because an unexpected person was flash wagon and killed that town will simply return to the state it was prior to the flash wagon. The development and context of the flash wagon itself will have likely changed the gamestate, and probably for the better.

I deeply regret ever making that bet with Arete. I'm going to stick to nickname bets from now on.

I appreciate your willingness to follow through and probably right a more convincing argument than someone who actually believes it.

[Marmot]

*write

[RondoDimBuckle]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

Just because its bad doesnt mean it wont happen. I have seen a game weal from a "Certain mafia pick" to some random no poster in the last 60 seconds

Since I am here I may as well keep an eye on it

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

I appreciate you

(don't let them flashwagon me plz)

I appreciate you too, even if I might vote for you in the future. Really I want ender to make it to day 2 because I know he is a popular day 1 for wolves and if he is a wolf I can read him more with more content

I know I've played with Ender once or twice, but I can't recall his gameplay at all, but that'll be a discussion I'm interested in having Day 2, including why he's a popular Day 1 elim.

But falcon is too fwiw, and here we are.

its more from my conversations with him out of game about how he gets lynched day 1 a lot

[Creature]

Where is that Alison article?

[Marmot]

falcon if you're a pr, you should probably claim now

[Creature]

I want to see it now

[Alison]

I'm really struggling to understand how Creature goes from "falcon is probably town, and once he flips town we'll have to re-eval all our reads tomorrow because mafia is probably snowing us all under" to "eh I'm fine with it, we had to sort him at some point anyway".

@Creature To be clear what is your read on falcon? Do you think they will flip town and if so what are your reasons for townreading him?

I don't remember ever townreading falcon besides maybe thinking gamestate could point towards him being town.

I'm confused why you think someone being the consensus exe means that they are likely town. This is a pretty stacked player list - maybe the people who scumread Falcon are just good at scumhunting and got it right?

[Creature]

I'm cop

[Creature]

I'm really struggling to understand how Creature goes from "falcon is probably town, and once he flips town we'll have to re-eval all our reads tomorrow because mafia is probably snowing us all under" to "eh I'm fine with it, we had to sort him at some point anyway".

@Creature To be clear what is your read on falcon? Do you think they will flip town and if so what are your reasons for townreading him?

I don't remember ever townreading falcon besides maybe thinking gamestate could point towards him being town.

I'm confused why you think someone being the consensus exe means that they are likely town. This is a pretty stacked player list - maybe the people who scumread Falcon are just good at scumhunting and got it right?

Just bad feels for unthought votes

[Marmot]

Where is that Alison article?

It was originally posted on MU somewhere, but I had it in my clipboard already

[RondoDimBuckle]

falcon if you're a pr, you should probably claim now

lol

[Creature]

Is this thread still open?

[Alison]

Good night.

[Creature]

I probably need to go sleep

[robyn]

have a nice 24h ppl

[Marmot]

Is this thread still open?

Yeah, day ends at XX:04

[Creature]

Hoping the veterans got it home

[Marmot]

I have no parting words, good night

[Creature]

So we have 2 minutes before the thread closes

[JaggedJimmyJay]

blessings, friends

[Creature]

1 minute now

[robyn]

I have no parting words, good night

your parting words are "good night"

[Creature]

Ok smell ya tomorrow

[EnderWiggin]

Gluck, I'll probably kill you in the morning.

[Marmot]

rip falcon

[Marmot]

Posting one more time to pass Dizzy

Now who's FROZEN and CRYING?

[Creature]

[G-Man]

The thread has been locked. The Day 1 post is coming shortly. Any posts that slip through the locking of the thread will be deleted.

[G-Man]

CASE FILE: The Halvøsen Ridge Incident- The Start of the Tragedy

From the Original Investigation File (translated): Upon summiting [Mount] Jiehkkevárri, the Halvøsen expedition conducted a partial descent by way of a southern and southwesterly orientation. A late afternoon snowstorm required the expedition to abandon their plan for a full descent and set up camp atop the ridge that now unofficially bears Halvøsen’s namesake.

According to the timing suggested by autopsy, the deaths came between seven and thirteen hours after their last meal. This meal is estimated at 5:15 p.m. local time. Autopsy results are inconclusive regarding first exposure to the elements due to the extent of ensuing decomposition.

At some time during the night, something caused a panic within one of the two tents. When rescuers locate the expedition’s encampment, it was determined that the collapsed tent had been cut open from the inside. Why this occurred is still subject to much speculation.

…..

Reidar Bjornstad’s body was among the first identified near what is speculated to be an unsuccessful attempt at building a fire. Autopsy results revealed no broken skin, but injuries to his back and ribs. Initial reports suggested he suffered some form of physical assault, leading some to originate the speculation the expedition was attacked by the nomadic Sámi, known to occasionally pass through the region.



Contemporary Notes: The unfortunate events on Jiehkkevárri were equal parts poor decision-making and unavoidable catastrophe. From their vantage point on the mountain, the party should have seen the weather changing from a great distance. Weather is known to change suddenly on mountains of Jiehkkevárri’s size, but it is not clustered so closely with other peaks as to allow for sudden surprises like other ranges do.

With no journal entries written after the incident began, speculation will always run rampant as to what exactly caused the party flee their tents in the middle of the night. It is my estimation that Reidar Bjornstad was the one who cut open the tent. The autopsy report speaks of damage to his spine and ribs- both anterior and posterior.

Whatever caused the team to depart in the manner in which they did, it was severe enough to cause them to depart the seeming safety of the tent without ample clothing, and some without so much as boots. If the panic was strong enough, the other members in Bjornstad’s tent may have knocked him down in their urgency to flee, trampling him under their feet.

Evidence for this is limited, but traces of footprints were seen coming from the other tent to the opening created by Bjornstad. All other remaining footprints suggest following the five who headed straight down the mountain. I am strongly convinced that one member of the other tent (likely with a flashlight in hand) saw Bjornstad injured and went to his assistance, helping him down the mountain.

Bjornstad’s right lung was punctured, while several ribs cracked or broken. His spinal injuries do not suggest a loss of mobility, but at least two vertebrae appear to have cracked under the weight of his companions. As he was underdressed for the evacuation, the combination of his injuries and the cold make him almost certainly the first of the Halvøsen party to die further down the mountain as others tried in vain to light a fire.

falcon45ca is dead. He was a member of the Halvøsen hiking party and a civilian.

Night 1 will conclude in approximately 24 hours.

[G-Man]

CASE FILE: The Halvøsen Ridge Incident- The Start of the Tragedy

From the Original Investigation File (translated): The first bodies to be discovered down the face of Jiehkkevárri were those surrounding a makeshift fire composed of nearby scrub. The attempted fire is believed to have been unsuccessful.

…….

Among those who died of exposure were Anders Norgaard… in a most peculiar fashion. While others were found in varying manner of dress, Norgaard… bore only undergarments, perplexing the rescue party.




Contemporary Notes: Much was initially made of the two members of the Halvøsen party found almost nude. It led to speculation of demons among the religious, hysteria among most others, and murder among the most conspiracy-minded. The answer, however, may be far simpler.

While initial investigations attempted to find a connection between Norgaard’s state of undress down the mountain with the cause of the panic that led him there, his partial nudity and the unseen force driving him out into the cold of the night are all but certainly mutually exclusive events. It is not uncommon for those suffering from hypothermia to experience paradoxical undressing. This is a phenomenon in which the hypothermic individual begins to feel hot instead of cold. This creates an uncontrollable urge to undress further in an attempt to alleviate the false sensation of heat.

Norgaard’s thermal underwear was found on another member of the party, suggesting that his delirious shedding of clothing allowed one of his companions to layer up for at least momentary aid from the dropping temperatures. As the tallest member of the group, it was easy to identify his garments on a shorter member of the party.

MacDougall is dead. He was a member of the Halvøsen hiking party and a civilian.

It is now Day 2.

Spoiler: show

@Alison
@Boquise
@Creature
@DrWilgy
@Dyslexicon
@EnderWiggin
@fingersplints
@JaggedJimmyJay
@lucy
@MacDougall
@Marmot
@NateTheLesser
@RondoDimBuckle
@Seanzie

[Dyslexicon]

First

[JaggedJimmyJay]

okay

As time permits this phase I have a few analytic tools in mind that I would like to deploy. Time may not permit as much as I would like especially over the next 48 hours, so I will again call upon the field to help me out. Any nerds out there who like to dig, please drop me a line and I will explain.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

last time nobody took me up on that, but it's a new day so maybe let's have a go eh

[Alison]

okay

As time permits this phase I have a few analytic tools in mind that I would like to deploy. Time may not permit as much as I would like especially over the next 48 hours, so I will again call upon the field to help me out. Any nerds out there who like to dig, please drop me a line and I will explain.

I'm down.

[Dyslexicon]

I think Marmot is town. And that's probably the extent of my useful contribution right now.

[RondoDimBuckle]

At EOD in another game, Reading falcon and mac later

[Dyslexicon]

okay

As time permits this phase I have a few analytic tools in mind that I would like to deploy. Time may not permit as much as I would like especially over the next 48 hours, so I will again call upon the field to help me out. Any nerds out there who like to dig, please drop me a line and I will explain.

I have to float some more before I dig, sorry.

I'm also not a very good digger.

[Alison]

At EOD in another game, Reading falcon and mac later

In the future you should refrain from referencing other games like this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm down.

Thank you.

One line of investigation that may be obvious but still doesn't tend to get the dedicated, systematic analysis it warrants is to individually assess the votes on the large mischop wagon of Day 1. We have a bunch of people who took part in that wagon who were all responsible for justifying their participation somehow. If we examine the full progression of each voter on their falcon reads we can try to determine with some reasonable degree of depth their sincerity.

I will likely do this myself, but two sets of eyes are better than one.

[RondoDimBuckle]

At [REDACTED] in another [REDACTED], Reading falcon and mac later

In the future you should refrain from referencing other games like this.

EBWOP

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think Marmot is town. And that's probably the extent of my useful contribution right now.

What inspires you most about our dear local rodent

[NateTheLesser]

GG Mac, Falcon.

Having to wait a half hour for the host to write up the flip reminds me of home.

[DrWilgy]

okay

As time permits this phase I have a few analytic tools in mind that I would like to deploy. Time may not permit as much as I would like especially over the next 48 hours, so I will again call upon the field to help me out. Any nerds out there who like to dig, please drop me a line and I will explain.

Did I miss this?

[RondoDimBuckle]

@G-Man do we have final vote screenshot? Or am I blind?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

okay

As time permits this phase I have a few analytic tools in mind that I would like to deploy. Time may not permit as much as I would like especially over the next 48 hours, so I will again call upon the field to help me out. Any nerds out there who like to dig, please drop me a line and I will explain.

Did I miss this?

I'm not sure what you mean since I just posted it, but if you're volunteering that'd be super

[DrWilgy]

Oh... There was like 7 day 2 posts. Nevermind.

[DrWilgy]

Yes I volunteer.

Curiosity lead me to posting before seeing how much content/time had passed.

[NateTheLesser]

I'm down.

Thank you.

One line of investigation that may be obvious but still doesn't tend to get the dedicated, systematic analysis it warrants is to individually assess the votes on the large mischop wagon of Day 1. We have a bunch of people who took part in that wagon who were all responsible for justifying their participation somehow. If we examine the full progression of each voter on their falcon reads we can try to determine with some reasonable degree of depth their sincerity.

I will likely do this myself, but two sets of eyes are better than one.

I'll be deploying some nerdery of my own shortly that may help with this (and VCA in general).

[Dyslexicon]

I think Marmot is town. And that's probably the extent of my useful contribution right now.

What inspires you most about our dear local rodent

That he cared to switch off of Falcon at EoD. A collection of good posts, his fluffy and adorable hair, and my well known god read on him.