RPG Mafia MAFIA WIN

[Dolby]

if linearpoint is a wolf, why is she not trying to save herself while there's so much contention for top wagon?

dunya/lp w/w clearly

[Urist]

Someone: but you know, a wolf wouldn't be the top poster in the thread on day 2

Me: points to Highway Heist Hally

nobody said this

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jack go look at Wilgy's ISO and tell me why he's light green.

His iso is fine. He's got a little bit of try. I'm pretty garbo at reading Wilgy, though. The biggest reason to townread Wilgy is that wolf Dunia wants to scapegoat him.

[Marmot]

If this page has told me anything, it's that elim'ing dunia today, even if we're wrong, would be extremely beneficial.

[Marmot]

Someone: but you know, a wolf wouldn't be the top poster in the thread on day 2

Me: points to Highway Heist Hally

nobody said this

Someone said this.

[Marmot]

Jack go look at Wilgy's ISO and tell me why he's light green.

His iso is fine. He's got a little bit of try. I'm pretty garbo at reading Wilgy, though. The biggest reason to townread Wilgy is that wolf Dunia wants to scapegoat him.

Valid

[Dolby]

I'm seeing Urist and TSP come up more and I'm just meh to their existence

[Urist]

Like holy balls TSP is the 5th highest poster and I don’t remember anything he’s said besides ‘dunya is bad’

This is honestly part of why Tony is always town, here.

As a wolf, I feel like Tony meanders a lot, blending in by not being blendy, if that makes sense. He's focused, here. He truly thinks he has correct reads on Dunya and myself. Wolf Tony doesn't have those surefire reads, especially on two players that are notoriously hard to yeet, where the flexibility of his vote could make a big difference in how the day goes.

tmi, but not on tsp

[Jackofhearts2005]

A better rainbow!
Jack
Tony
NAA
Syn
Marmot
Wilgy (largely a gamestate read that could change if Dunya is town)
LP (also a gamestate read that could change a LOT if Dunya is town because there is one compelling reason to scumread her, that she's not obviously town on her own merits)
Urist
Sig
Rask
Dolby
HK (this read has the potential to jump around alot because I don't think all of my oranges are wolves)
Dya (as does this one for the same reason)
Scotty
Dunia

Is your SR of me directly correlated to dunia flipping bad?

Why am I specifically bad in your eyes?

It's largely based on your treatment of Dunya and vice versa.

If Dunya was town, I still think you've had some unnatural sounding play that would put you in the high oranges.

[Scotty]

If this page has told me anything, it's that elim'ing dunia today, even if we're wrong, would be extremely beneficial.

Yeah

Too many people hardshielding or hard on sheeting her

[Urist]

hard on sheeting

[Scotty]

I'm seeing Urist and TSP come up more and I'm just meh to their existence

But what does that mean in this game state?
Meh townies?

[Scotty]

A better rainbow!
Jack
Tony
NAA
Syn
Marmot
Wilgy (largely a gamestate read that could change if Dunya is town)
LP (also a gamestate read that could change a LOT if Dunya is town because there is one compelling reason to scumread her, that she's not obviously town on her own merits)
Urist
Sig
Rask
Dolby
HK (this read has the potential to jump around alot because I don't think all of my oranges are wolves)
Dya (as does this one for the same reason)
Scotty
Dunia

Is your SR of me directly correlated to dunia flipping bad?

Why am I specifically bad in your eyes?

It's largely based on your treatment of Dunya and vice versa.

If Dunya was town, I still think you've had some unnatural sounding play that would put you in the high oranges.

That’s fair

[Marmot]

[VOTE: dunia] aubergine

Even if she's town, a lot of the game will probably still be focused on her tomorrow if she is alive, so I do think elimming her will help with gamestate.

I also agree with some of the associatives that Jack mentioned, including Wilgy, Scotty.

[Scotty]

hard on sheeting

I trust autistic with my life

[Scotty]

Oh also HK is town never rescinding

[Urist]

let's not kill dunya

[Marmot]

Oh also HK is town never rescinding

Hard disagree, mainly because hk hasn't been very contrarian this game, which is what I normally expect from him.

[hollowkatt]

A rainbow!
Jack
Tony
NAA
Syn
Marmot
Urist
Sig
Rask
Dolby
HK (this read has the potential to jump around alot)
Dya (as does this one)
Scotty
Dunia

Note how there is no light green, suggesting an uncanny amount of confidence in Jack's top 3 townreads and a large section of players he considers largely passive (at least when he's been online) in the yellow zone.

I kinda wanna swap dya and dolby on your list but otherwise that's an accurate representation of where I've come to be. Yes that means I've flipped my reads on dunya and scotty mostly b/c I don't think those two can be town if you and tsp are town and if that world does exist the wolf team is going to be like Syn, Dolby, Rask or something completely fucked up like that.

Weren't you hard townreading me

Also what happened to CFC gang?

I'm experimenting with worlds.

Like ok, my reads coming into irl this morning were like this:

townies:
syn
dolby
rask
dunya
NAA
scotty
HK
dya

nulls
wigley
marmot
sig

lean wolf
TSP
Jack
Urist

is wolf
LP

But reading Jacks posts this morning has gotten me thinking what if I'm wrong on Jack/TSP as wolf and it really is Dunya. Which kinda throws my reads into a turmoil b/c I don't think scotty can be town if dunya is not also town / jack and tsp aren't town with dunya/scotty.
I get to a weird cfc wolf container by thinking what if that group of 4 IS town which would force wolves into cfc, wigley, sig, dya, lp and I'm not confident enough to think in that universe I'd correctly say the entire wolf team is contained in sig, dya, lp, wigley

[Scotty]

let's not kill dunya

Because you had a vision in your dreams last night?
Why not dunya

[Jackofhearts2005]

let's not kill dunya

Why not?

[Dolby]

I'm seeing Urist and TSP come up more and I'm just meh to their existence

But what does that mean in this game state?
Meh townies?

yellow

they can go either way. They've been present but their content is no where near fire

[Scotty]

Oh also HK is town never rescinding

Hard disagree, mainly because hk hasn't been very contrarian this game, which is what I normally expect from him.

I think, from my perspective, his reads have almost mirrored mine throughout the game.

If I’m pocketed, gg

[Urist]

Oh also HK is town never rescinding

correct probably

[Marmot]

Per what hk and Urist have said, figuring out if dunya is a wolf or town will hopefully also shed some light on Jack and/or TSP.

[Scotty]

Oh also HK is town never rescinding

Hard disagree, mainly because hk hasn't been very contrarian this game, which is what I normally expect from him.

I think, from my perspective, his reads have almost mirrored mine throughout the game.

If I’m pocketed, gg

On the flip side, maybe my reads are entirely wrong

[Dolby]

Per what hk and Urist have said, figuring out if dunya is a wolf or town will hopefully also shed some light on Jack and/or TSP.

explain wrt TSP specifically?

[hollowkatt]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

[Marmot]

I made a case for wolf!Creature on Day 1 around the same time as dunya did, so it's amusing to see the contrast that Day 2 has brought to each of us.

[NotAnAxehole]

This game is frustrating me to no end

you're a bad person

You're right, I need to stop partially explaining to people how the sausage is made.

[Scotty]

I made a case for wolf!Creature on Day 1 around the same time as dunya did, so it's amusing to see the contrast that Day 2 has brought to each of us.

Dunya has asked to die on that sword for the both of you, per her own wishes

[Dolby]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

group 1 contains 2 wolves max

I kinda think that group 2 only contains 1 wolf if it does but I think that there could be a 2nd wolf if we're getting fleeced, sure

[Jackofhearts2005]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

I agree with all of this except why is Urist associated with Jack/Tony?

[Marmot]

Per what hk and Urist have said, figuring out if dunya is a wolf or town will hopefully also shed some light on Jack and/or TSP.

explain wrt TSP specifically?

hollowkatt posted a thunk that I liked that said something like "do town TSP and town Jack push town dunya in this gamestate", and I think that is a definite no, so if dunia is town I think it means at least one of them is a wolf.


TSP and Jack are both excellent players (as either alignment) and have plenty of history with dunia, so both of them being town and wrong on this would be very hard to believe.


You could probably add Syn and myself to the list with Jack and TSP, but I don't think Syn nor I are nearly as capable as pushing town!dunya if we're wolves.

[Dolby]

Like holy balls TSP is the 5th highest poster and I don’t remember anything he’s said besides ‘dunya is bad’

This is honestly part of why Tony is always town, here.

As a wolf, I feel like Tony meanders a lot, blending in by not being blendy, if that makes sense. He's focused, here. He truly thinks he has correct reads on Dunya and myself. Wolf Tony doesn't have those surefire reads, especially on two players that are notoriously hard to yeet, where the flexibility of his vote could make a big difference in how the day goes.

I think that this read is fine. Might be accurate, thinking back to the main things I remember Tony from (TF2 and that joated game). Kinda been hard given that while he has been certain most of his reads I feel have been contained in one liners that are walkbackable

[Dolby]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

I agree with all of this except why is Urist associated with Jack/Tony?

tbh when I look at group 1 it's hard to not see it as a group that is grouped for going under the radar during d1

[Marmot]

Like holy balls TSP is the 5th highest poster and I don’t remember anything he’s said besides ‘dunya is bad’

This is honestly part of why Tony is always town, here.

As a wolf, I feel like Tony meanders a lot, blending in by not being blendy, if that makes sense. He's focused, here. He truly thinks he has correct reads on Dunya and myself. Wolf Tony doesn't have those surefire reads, especially on two players that are notoriously hard to yeet, where the flexibility of his vote could make a big difference in how the day goes.

I think that this read is fine. Might be accurate, thinking back to the main things I remember Tony from (TF2 and that joated game). Kinda been hard given that while he has been certain most of his reads I feel have been contained in one liners that are walkbackable

TSP will always live and die by the one-liners, that particular posting style is nai for him imo.

[hollowkatt]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

group 1 contains 2 wolves max

I kinda think that group 2 only contains 1 wolf if it does but I think that there could be a 2nd wolf if we're getting fleeced, sure

while you're here...

Do you think it's possible that those 6 contain zero wolves, and if so can cfc still be pure? I think that's what I'm getting hung up on. If that group of 6 is pure and cfc is pure that would literally leave the entire wolf team contained in:

dya
marmot
naa
lp
sig
wigley

and I don't think I can make a cohesive wolf team out of that group.

[Urist]

let's not kill dunya

Because you had a vision in your dreams last night?
Why not dunya

wagon economics, partly. i think there have been enough lulls / chaos where if she were mafia, her partners could have stepped in to save her. instead, she's still a leading wagon while the wagons on everyone else have mostly disappeared. i think this is indicative of her being town, with wolves pushing her. specifically, i think at least two wolves are in the list of people currently voting her: Voters: Jackofhearts2005, DrWilgy, TonyStarkPrime, Marmot, hollowkatt
aside from that, i was thinking last night about her behaviour this game, particularly the AtE that she insists isn't AtE, and I don't think that's the sort of thing she'd pull as scum.

[Dolby]

I'm gonna hardread Dunya and LP as not v/w. Maybe they decide to push Wilgy but it's probs just better for them to let him be activity vigged if w/w? And Dunya is pushing Wilgy anyway

v/v or w/w

[Scotty]

This game is frustrating me to no end

you're a bad person

You're right, I need to stop partially explaining to people how the sausage is made.

I got another one for your to parse if you’d be so kind:
Monkey Island

I think just more sample sizes would help me figure this put

[Jackofhearts2005]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

I agree with all of this except why is Urist associated with Jack/Tony?

tbh when I look at group 1 it's hard to not see it as a group that is grouped for going under the radar during d1

Okay. I wasn't around a bunch on D1 to make that connection.

[NotAnAxehole]

This game is frustrating me to no end

you're a bad person

You're right, I need to stop partially explaining to people how the sausage is made.

I got another one for your to parse if you’d be so kind:
Monkey Island

I think just more sample sizes would help me figure this put

Ok, I'll do my best to not spoil myself to keep the experience authentic.


@Jackofhearts2005 do you have a high post count mafia game I can look at?

[hollowkatt]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

I agree with all of this except why is Urist associated with Jack/Tony?

I had a good reason but I don't remember what it was.

[Marmot]

let's not kill dunya

Because you had a vision in your dreams last night?
Why not dunya

wagon economics, partly. i think there have been enough lulls / chaos where if she were mafia, her partners could have stepped in to save her. instead, she's still a leading wagon while the wagons on everyone else have mostly disappeared. i think this is indicative of her being town, with wolves pushing her. specifically, i think at least two wolves are in the list of people currently voting her: Voters: Jackofhearts2005, DrWilgy, TonyStarkPrime, Marmot, hollowkatt
aside from that, i was thinking last night about her behaviour this game, particularly the AtE that she insists isn't AtE, and I don't think that's the sort of thing she'd pull as scum.

I do think this is a reasonable take, but do you think we can actually elim any of those players who are actually wolves while dunya is alive?

[Jackofhearts2005]

let's not kill dunya

Because you had a vision in your dreams last night?
Why not dunya

wagon economics, partly. i think there have been enough lulls / chaos where if she were mafia, her partners could have stepped in to save her. instead, she's still a leading wagon while the wagons on everyone else have mostly disappeared. i think this is indicative of her being town, with wolves pushing her. specifically, i think at least two wolves are in the list of people currently voting her: Voters: Jackofhearts2005, DrWilgy, TonyStarkPrime, Marmot, hollowkatt
aside from that, i was thinking last night about her behaviour this game, particularly the AtE that she insists isn't AtE, and I don't think that's the sort of thing she'd pull as scum.

I've been left as one of the 2 or 3 voters on Dunia at least twice today and four players (Dya, Scotty, HK, Urist) have at various points in the day strongly opposed a Dunia yeet. The logic behind this read is just incorrect, regardless of Dunia's alignment.

[hollowkatt]

Per what hk and Urist have said, figuring out if dunya is a wolf or town will hopefully also shed some light on Jack and/or TSP.

explain wrt TSP specifically?

hollowkatt posted a thunk that I liked that said something like "do town TSP and town Jack push town dunya in this gamestate", and I think that is a definite no, so if dunia is town I think it means at least one of them is a wolf.


TSP and Jack are both excellent players (as either alignment) and have plenty of history with dunia, so both of them being town and wrong on this would be very hard to believe.


You could probably add Syn and myself to the list with Jack and TSP, but I don't think Syn nor I are nearly as capable as pushing town!dunya if we're wolves.

basically this yes. Which is why I said there's a line there between those groups. One of them has to be right I think because I don't think the game makes sense if all of them are town, unless again the team is exactly "weird"

[Dolby]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

group 1 contains 2 wolves max

I kinda think that group 2 only contains 1 wolf if it does but I think that there could be a 2nd wolf if we're getting fleeced, sure

while you're here...

Do you think it's possible that those 6 contain zero wolves, and if so can cfc still be pure? I think that's what I'm getting hung up on. If that group of 6 is pure and cfc is pure that would literally leave the entire wolf team contained in:

dya
marmot
naa
lp
sig
wigley

and I don't think I can make a cohesive wolf team out of that group.

I think that all 6 names do not contain 0 wolves and it is a function of Jack/TSP/Urist just not really feeling like it contains 0 wolves for me. I know that I just said that they're being grouped for ISP, but I don't really think they're pure? I look at Group 2 and I'm definetely fine with you town, less fine with Scotty town now but still TR him. Dunya can die, especially if LP w

If those 6 are pure it's either an all slanker team, or CFC is compromised

I might even go as far to say that if naa/lp/sig/wilgy only has one wolf and the 6 names are pure, CFC contains TWO wolves. Howeever, I do not actually believe in that world being real

In which case idk who to look at but it's not Syn

[Jackofhearts2005]

And Dunya absolutely positively uses ATE as scum while insisting it isn't ATE. It's arguably her go to wolf play. That she doesn't do that as scum is just a silly assertion.

[hollowkatt]

hi good morning
i've realized that dunya is town sorry for the confusion

ok, in your world do town jack and town tsp push town dunya as their preferred chop for today

nope

I feel like there's two groups forming here:
TSP/Jack/Urist

Dunya/Scotty/HK

and everyone else is revolving around those two and the question is which group has more wolves in it though I guess it's theoretically possibly in a dya/LP, X world that they're all town and the wolf team is just a weird group that aren't actually interacting all that much together.

if I continue to assume cfc is pure.

I agree with all of this except why is Urist associated with Jack/Tony?

tbh when I look at group 1 it's hard to not see it as a group that is grouped for going under the radar during d1

I had that feeling D1, I can probably dig it up if you're interested.