PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[staypositivefriend]

i gotta go even though i really dont want to right now

the solve is probably still just in visor/c4 but if im alive in a f3 with dizzy tomorrow then i will need to do my due diligence for him

[nutella]

honestly the way that dizzy is playing up the dynamic between me/visor is making me worry that we live in some world where he's a deepwolf that sees an easy POE laid out before him, but i am PROBABLY just psyching myself out - i have found his scumhunting today and the way he quickly shifts his stances very villagery in spite of my paranoia

i'm voting visor primarily because his posts within the last ~20 minutes are the wolfiest posts that he's made in this game by far - the language of "you're throwing the game", "this is so silly", "let's just deal with it tomorrow", etc etc is the exact type of language that i see pressured wolves use to take attention off of themselves all of the time. outed wolf's reasoning for me being a wolf is also so baffling that i know we would lose immediately in a world where he IS a villager and im in a f3 with him, so my vote on him is partially out of selfishness/the feeling that it's more "optimal" to vote out the person who would probably immediately vote me in a f3 scenario

i dont think that c4's posting within the last few hours is outside of the range of a good wolf, but i do think his posts are mildly villagery. they show a lack of self-preservation intent and the depth of thought is fairly good

agree with a lot of this

think it's ~always in visor/c4 now

[Dyslexicon]

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

I guess.
So.. you decide. No pressure. Hope we get it. Sorry I'm not more helpful.

[Dyslexicon]

Or am I just being dumb, falling for AtE from Visor?

[Dyslexicon]

Bah.

Right or wrong, unite.

[VOTE: Visor ] aubergine

[nutella]

unity

[nutella]

alison isnt here to tell us not to change the chop target in the last 2 hours weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[outed wolf]

It's not ate. (Or at the very least it's minor and not really intended to be so.)

It seems like there is a 4 man wagon on me so I don't think I'll be seeing any vote shifts - so I'll just get to writing. Writing on phone is a pain but it is what it is.

I think SPF bussed. I know when I looked at the table that someone posted of who was voting along with who that SPF voted Kza and dya on D1 and D2. I know SPF has mentioned that she has almost a compulsion to tmi and I think that's what she did to push Kza over and then have a flashy progression on dya. It is possible she just had a good early game however, but I think her ability to post insightful stuff has really diminished from the early game.

The way she treated arete wasn't fair and I seriously regret not taking a stronger stance for arete y'day, sorry pal.

I did iso a few dizzy games and while I wasn't completely convinced (I know they can play well and interact and push Bros out of the blue), tonally they felt okay to me and I trust tangrowth and Zack (and arete) to be right. I did iso Nutella and her early game iso is super wolf sided but I guess I don't think she would bother town reading Kza so hard to stop doing so immediately and have others have pointed out I don't think her interactions with dya are generally W/W (though I do think there is ofc some chance).

When it comes to C4, it's a big old whatever, he is mostly to cover bases when it comes to spf.

Anyway, y'all know what I think but you guys should absolutely do your due diligence in f3, there's always the chance someone slips up or someone is super pure.

Take your time and really consider things.

Sorry for shitting up the game a bit d4. Hope I didn't offend too many of you guys with my sense of humour lol.

Good luck village. (You'll probably need it lmao).

My pick I guess is SPF wolf though I think y'all are really gonna regret not going C4 first.

Especially if he is a villa cause he always dies in f3.

Im not gonna accept any apologies in postgame (and yes I know people are gonna read this as like self aware playing for shit stuff) you made a mistake/panicked it happened part of the game we have all been there before.

Just make sure you take it home if you're gonna kill me, do your due diligence.

Anyway I'm out. Good luck fellas. Last chance saloon to vote C4. Least I don't get to be in f3 lol. If I'd have known my stress free feeling was me gonna die out of the blue I'd have been more stressed lmao

What can ya do.

[nutella]

panic panic panic


if i move back to c4 i dont think spf or dizzy are even on to make a difference

wonder if there are spoiled ppl laughing at us tbh

[nutella]

well this kind of feels just maybe a little dumb but we can hope

[nutella]

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

for sunbae

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Day 7 has ended.

outed wolf has been eliminated. He was the student who insists on referencing my slides from class in proper APA format in half of his paragraphs to fill space, and it's adorable.

Spoiler: show

Vanilla town

Spoiler: show

Night 7 will last 24 hours.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Richard Feynman first:

and then Unit 6:

1. Do you agree with Richard Feynman's general perception of social and psychological science? Why or why not?

2. How do you think Richard Feynman would feel about the psychophysical laws of sensation? Explain. Each of these first two questions is opinion-driven, so answers won't be "wrong" if they are reasonably attempted.

3. Weber's law describes what relationship between the just noticeable difference and stimulus intensity?

4. What two factors are related to one another by Steven's Power Law?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Note that all vote manipulation in the game, if applicable, is now void.

The only quiz prizes still available for this unit are bonus posts. I will roll among those 5.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The game is mechanically affirmed to reach a final three phase. VOTES WILL BE LOCKED. ONCE A VOTE IS PLACED IT MAY NOT BE CHANGED. THIS MEANS NECESSARILY THAT MAJORITY WILL BE IN EFFECT. A MAJORITY VOTE WILL END THE GAME. As always if you have questions please direct them to me privately.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Night 7 has ended.

nutella has been killed. She finished at the top of her class.

Spoiler: show

Vanilla town

Day 8 is underway. This will be the final phase of the game. VOTES ARE LOCKED. ONCE YOU PLACE A VOTE YOU MAY NOT CHANGE IT. The game will end when a player has received two votes OR when 48 hours have elapsed.

[staypositivefriend]

*cracks knuckles*

[Dyslexicon]

Can we not

Visor was right about everything

[staypositivefriend]

Can we not

Visor was right about everything

what was he right about?

[Dyslexicon]

Does this mean I have to read the whole game now? Or should I wing it.

[staypositivefriend]

i will be re-reading the whole game. asking for 24 hours or so to put my thoughts together

[Dyslexicon]

Can we not

Visor was right about everything

what was he right about?

That chopping him was bad and c4/you was lock

This question is also bad, and I'm probably going to vote you today. So if you're town, you should probably try to convince me not to

[Dyslexicon]

i will be re-reading the whole game. asking for 24 hours or so to put my thoughts together

Is it a very hard decision for you right now?

[staypositivefriend]

Can we not

Visor was right about everything

what was he right about?

That chopping him was bad and c4/you was lock

This question is also bad, and I'm probably going to vote you today. So if you're town, you should probably try to convince me not to

why do you wanna vote me?

[Dyslexicon]

@c4e5g3d5 Join the totally awesome party

[staypositivefriend]

i will be re-reading the whole game. asking for 24 hours or so to put my thoughts together

Is it a very hard decision for you right now?

i have a lean, but the correct thing to do in this type of situation is to thoroughly re-read the players that i'm in the f3 with

[Dyslexicon]

why do you wanna vote me?

Because I think it's most likely you. I could write more words, but it would be a mess

[Dyslexicon]

i will be re-reading the whole game. asking for 24 hours or so to put my thoughts together

Is it a very hard decision for you right now?

i have a lean, but the correct thing to do in this type of situation is to thoroughly re-read the players that i'm in the f3 with

Syn voting me last F3 before I got to post lol

[staypositivefriend]

why do you wanna vote me?

Because I think it's most likely you. I could write more words, but it would be a mess

if you are on day 8 of a mafia game in a f3 and you cant write words about why you want to vote the main person that you FOS, then it means that your solving process has gone wrong somewhere. i'm town, and my sole focus right now is getting a solid, confident answer about who the final wolf is - i can only do that by re-reading the game, and i suggest that you do the same

[staypositivefriend]

it should be pretty obvious that im coming into today with a lean on c4 being a wolf, but i'm re-reading all of the relevant stuff with a totally open mind and going where my brain leads me

[Dyslexicon]

why do you wanna vote me?

Because I think it's most likely you. I could write more words, but it would be a mess

if you are on day 8 of a mafia game in a f3 and you cant write words about why you want to vote the main person that you FOS, then it means that your solving process has gone wrong somewhere. i'm town, and my sole focus right now is getting a solid, confident answer about who the final wolf is - i can only do that by re-reading the game, and i suggest that you do the same

Can you though? Can you only do it that way, and will you be able to do it that way if you aren't confident now? Why can't you do it just by interacting with me? Determine if I'm scum or town if you're still unsure?

I feel like you're want for being sure is kind of science fiction lol. I don't think I've ever been sure in a F3 situation.

I'll reread if I get the chance to. Right now I should be asleep, and I have work early tomorrow. Don't have anything after work though, so I'll have time then. I appreciate taking some time to consider, definitely.

[Dyslexicon]

I hate this, and I'm almost always wrong in F3s or get mischopped, so any town watching, do not get your hopes up.

[Dyslexicon]

I wish c4 was here, but he isn't.

So I'm going to (attempt to) sleep. Will be around tomorrow.

[staypositivefriend]

Dizzy vs C4 - the Battle of the Century

3 flipped wolves, 12 interactions on both sides, and 6 heart-pounding matches! who will come out looking the best? who will take the crown? let’s find out!

ROUND 1: Dizzy and C4 vs KZA

C4: https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 68#p797968 - C4 mentions KZA for the first time when he says that KZA’s posting reminds him of the posting he saw from KZA in c4 when he was a villager. he subsequently puts KZA at his 4th tier from the bottom in his list of reads

Dizzy: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 83#p800083 - dizzy makes his first direct mention of KZA when he tries to summarize and understand the primary points against him. dizzy provides a summary of his perception of the “case” on KZA, and then says he feels that gavial has higher scum equity than KZA (this type of post makes me wish i could see the current votecount when the post was made)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 85#p800085 - dizzy says not to chop KZA, calling him a “lame chop”

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 75#p800175 - dizzy continues to poke at bronana’s “case” on KZA being flawed, although he does not explicitly wolfread zack for it

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p800211 - dizzy continues to poke at bronana’s case, and asks for other peoples thoughts on the exchange

THE VERDICT:


C4 wrote off KZA as a villager for a mildly questionable reason, and then positioned them in their readslist in a spot where wolves often put their LHF partners (not in the immediate POE, but slightly above it)

Dizzy did not provide his personal read on KZA (beyond suggesting that he should not be chopped on d1), and his interactions regarding KZA are more about Zack’s read than KZA himself. I don’t believe that Dizzy would have reasonably believed that he could have shifted the thread consensus in favor of KZA with the ~hour and a half that was left in the day.

Arguably, both of these interactions can be framed to look “bad”, but I feel that Dizzy comes out of this round looking better than c4.

WINNER: Dyslexicon

Round 2: KZA vs C4 and Dyslexicon

Dyslexicon - NO interactions

C4 - NO interactions, but it is worth mentioning that KZA made a post TMI’ing Alison as a villager that was playing off of c4’s initial wolfread on Alison. (https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 23#p798923)

The Verdict: Nope.

WINNER: It’s a draw! I’m including it here for posterity's sake.

Round 3: C4 and Dyslexicon vs Vulgard

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 42#p797542 - c4 says that Vulgard is always town, in conjunction with his read on Sunbae always being town

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 19#p797619 - c4 and vulgard have a fairly dry exchange about c4’s “godread” on me around this time. the conversation ends somewhat uneventfully on

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 24#p797628, although the two of them have a brief exchange about arete following that

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 22#p797822 - c4 brings attention to the fact that vulgard is wolfreading hally by saying that he needs to “check” what vulgard said about them

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 22#p797824 - c4 reiterates that vulgard is a villager when hally townreads him

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 68#p797968 - vulgard continues to be c4’s strongest townread, in conjunction with sunbae

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 74#p799574 - vulgard questions c4 about his townread on dya. Lol

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 49#p801149 - a couple of other names get added to c4’s strongest townreads, and c4 briefly pings vulgard to explain that he doesn’t understand his read on tangrowth (the conversation does not seem to go anywhere)

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 59#p802759 - c4 responds to vulgard’s “case” on him fairly lukewarmly - he seems unconcerned with vulgard’s read on him and provides a very brief rebuttal
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 05#p803705 - c4 reiterates his concerns about dyachei when vulgard asks him why he’s pre-flipping dyachei as a wolf. pretty boring interaction, and the exchange on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 44#p803944 is equally bland.

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 88#p804988 - c4 immediately votes vulgard when sunbae CCs marluxion on d3. c4’s posts prior to this point were predicated on the belief that marluxion’s report was real and that he and marl were still villagers - the fact that c4 immediately shifts his suspicion toward vulgard, a player he had 100% townread up until this point, without knowing whether or not marluxion retracted, is very notable to me

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 10#p806610 - c4 hedges hard on vulgard’s alignment in this post, which is weird considering how confident he was that vulgard was “always” a villager prior to this point. why does c4, who often makes a point of pushing for his strongest reads, make no real attempt to figure out if vulgard is a wolf or not in this scenario? why does he not seem to care?

Dizzy:

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p798211 - dizzy responds to vulgard’s early townlean on him by providing some additional context about his wolfrange and about why he was taking a more laid-back approach on d1

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 58#p799658 - silly banter between the two of them in this post

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803139 - the accuracy of this post is so astounding that i’m tempted to consider it being TMI. dizzy directly says that he feels that dyachei/vulgard might be teamed, and then calls that he will forget about this read but be proven correct in the future. that exact thing happened, lol

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 36#p803236 - dizzy explains the posts that made him tinfoil a vulgard/dyachei team to sunbae, and pokes at the way that vulgard talked about dya to suggest that they could be teamed

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803639 - dizzy lists vulgard as a TR that he sponged

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 57#p803657 - dizzy questions vulgard about wanting to kill dya

dizzy has a very interesting series of posts when the marl/sunbae claim shenanigans happen tow ard the beginning of d3. dya enters the day by saying that he’s side-eyeing a vulgard/dya team and believes that it is possible https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 95#p805695

when dizzy learns about marl’s claim, he immediately begins aggressively pushing for a world where marl is a wolf - https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 30#p806330 and https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 34#p806334

dizzy promptly changes his mind when the mechanics get corrected around https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 23#p806423

if dizzy intended to come into d3 bussing both of his partners (vulgard/dya), then why immediately pivot to hardpushing on marl in the very next post? especially when dizzy would have known as a wolf that marl’s claim wasn’t real? dizzy’s trajectory at the beginning of d3 lacks an agenda-based mindset, and i think it’s indicative of him being a villager

The Verdict: c4 townread vulgard incredibly strongly early in the game (in conjunction w/his read on sunbae). c4 had multiple fairly dry exchanged with vulgard about their respective reads. c4 reacted to vulgard's wolfread on him fairly lukewarmly. c4 immediately turns on vulgard and votes him when sunbae claims his report, and then proceeds to hedge and refuse to take a stance on vulgard's alignment past that point

dizzy and vulgard had some fairly casual/vibrant interactions early on, dizzy was suspicious of vulgard being partnered with dya early on (although he continued to TR vulgard), dizzy came into d3 suspicious of vulgard again, but immediately began pushing for a world where vulgard was a villager until swiftly changing his mind when the mechanics got corrected

comparing the two of them side by side, dizzy clearly comes out looking better. i am put off by c4’s hedginess about vulgard’s alignment on d3 (and his quickness to vote vulgard), and all of his interactions with vulgard were fairly dry and non-descript. dizzy’s interactions with vulgard were more colorful by comparison, and the way that dizzy came into d3 preparing to push on vulgard only to be immediately swept into a world where vulgard was a villager strikes me as the progression of an unconfident villager

WINNER: Dizzy

Round 4: Vulgard vs Dyslexicon and C4

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 67#p797367 - vulgard implies that i am TMI’ing c4 as a villager by townreading him early on (although he specifically takes more issue with my townread on hally than my townread on c4, which may be telling)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 08#p797408 - vulgard says that c4 has made no impression on him, and reiterates that i am townreading him too easily

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 43#p797443 - vulgard shades hally for not providing a read on c4

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p797526 - vulgard weasels his way into townreading c4 by pretending to ISO him and saying that he can “see what other people are seeing”

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 16#p798116 - vulgard questions arete about their tr on c4

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 38#p799838 - vulgard puts c4 as a townlean

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 01#p802101 - vulgard pings c4 with a softball question

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 17#p802717 - this is quite the monster of a post. vulgard mostly pokes at c4’s progression on gavial, but his conclusion is significantly less spicy than the rest of the post. vulgard sound
s like he’s about to nail c4 at multiple points, but he ends up concluding “c4’s posts are fine besides that one”, which is a pretty hedgey stance for vulgard to take relative to how harsh his analysis seemed

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 09#p803609 - after all the theatrics about c4 being wolfy, vulgard puts c4 in his villager list with a question mark

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p803626 - vulgard puts c4 in his “town with reservations” list

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 82#p803982 - vulgard says that c4 is a villager but that his “pov makes no sense sometimes”

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 94#p804894 - coming into d3, vulgard asks me if im still shielding c4

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 03#p805703 - vulgard attempts to deescalate the claim situation, notably emphasizing that he did not attempt to soft a red check on c4 at all

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 27#p805727 - vulgard asks me for my “take” on c4, emphasizing that his d2 was abysmal. i think it’s telling that vulgard’s shade toward c4 only really came into fruition once vulgard was virtually an outed wolf

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 02#p805802 - notably,, this is the post where vulgard shifts to calling c4 a wolf and implying that he’s definitely scum

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 17#p805817 - i believe that vulgard was at least partially in anti-spew at this point, and i don’t feel particularly inclined to analyze anything that he’s saying here too hard. it is at least notable that vulgard constantly plays up the dynamic between c4 and myself and implies that a c4 wolf world increases my odds of being a wolf as well (which eventually shifts into vulgard outright saying that me/c4 are W/W)

dizzy -

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p797526 - vulgard hedges on dizzy’s alignment early on and says that dizzy/KZA aren’t W/W

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 31#p798131 - vulgard says that he’s leaning on dizzy being V and goes out of his way to shade arete for their read on dizzy - it’s notable that this post was probably a maneuver to eventually pocket arete, and it’s interesting that dizzy is the player in the center of that

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 75#p798175 - vulgard continues to poke at arete’s read on dizzy

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 81#p798181 - vulgard says that dizzy is 100% a villager in a world where arete is a wolf

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 75#p799375 - vulgard subtly discredits alison’s townread on dizzy by arguing that his behavior re: gavial is NAI

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 15#p799415 - vulgard signal boosts marluxion’s read that dyslexicon/gavial were bussing each other

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 50#p799650 - vulgard says he likes dizzy’s recent posting more than before (which i think is funny, since vulgard townread dizzy confidently out of the gate on d1, and this progression is completely fake)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 38#p799838 - vulgard townleans dizzy
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p802111 - vulgard agrees with my point about dizzy being villagery

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 19#p802119 - vulgard agrees with dizzy’s take on KZA’s ISO

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p803626 - puts dizzy on the “village” tier in this post and this post https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 09#p803609

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 65#p803565 - vulgard responds to dizzy’s tinfoil about him and dyachei being partnered - it’s notable that vulgard, who is usually a very long-winded player, is oddly terse with dizzy in this post. he is blunt and to the point and attempts to shoot down the idea without further conversation

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 42#p802942 - i dont think this means anything but im putting it here for posterity

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 82#p803982 - vulgard reacts to sunbae presenting his concerns about dizzy by “agreeing” with his points but still suggesting that dizzy is a villager. as an aside, the way that vulgard shoehorns c4’s name into this post is really awkward

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 02#p805802 - vulgard argues for dizzy being a villager in this post

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 55#p805855 - vulgard reiterates a confident townread on dizzy

THE VERDICT: vulgard's read on c4 mostly shifted with the thread consensus - townreading him when others townread him and shading him when others shaded him. he made a point of making a wallpost accusing c4 of being wolfy, but then hedged on c4's alignment and proceeded to treat him like a villager up until d3 - a point at which he suddenly shifted to c4 Definitely being a wolf

vulgard's read on dizzy was more out of line w/the thread consensus - he townleaned him very early on and used arete's early read on dizzy as a way to attack/gradually pocket arete. he comes around to townreading dizzy with near 100% confidence toward the end of d3

i think the micro is more notable than the macro here - i think that vulgard’s progression on dizzy, in a vacuum, tells me nothing about dizzy’s alignment, but there are some micro moments (like vulgard being weirdly terse with dizzy when dizzy called out a vulgard/dyachei wolfteam, vulgard defending dizzy at times that feel more like TMI than a wolf hard defending their partner) that push me into mildly liking vulgard’s interactions with dizzy
vulgard’s progression on c4 is questionable. he primarily sheeped whatever the thread consensus toward c4 was, and then he became very confident about c4 being a wolf toward the end of his life. notably, vulgard went out of his way to “case”/analyze c4, and pivoted back to townreading him/shielding him for the next couple of phases. it feels like vulgard, in general, was extremely hyperaware of c4’s position in the thread, and constantly played and wifomed around it

i would give an edge to dizzy here as well. this is starting to look like a blowout! let’s see if c4 can recover some points in the next two rounds

WINNER: Dizzy

ROUND 5: C4 and Dyslexicon VS Dyachei

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 04#p798204 - dizzy answers an early softball question from dyachei

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 69#p798669 - dizzy pings dyachei to ask what their read on him is (and asks them to expand on their read on alison)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 93#p798693 - i think this post looks better for dizzy on dyachei’s side than on dizzy’s side, so i’ll reserve comment until i get to that round. that said, i like that dizzy prompts dyachei to answer his question about alison after dyachei didn’t answer it - it shows that dizzy had some level of investment in getting an answer, regardless of his alignment

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p798711 - dizzy agrees with dya’s early point about alison being wolfy

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 80#p798780 - dizzy asks dyachei a cheeky question about who they’re being bussed by - dyachei notably does not respond to it

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 06#p799506 - this is a post i’d like dizzy to clarify a little bit - dizzy says that he didn’t get good feelings about dyachei during his exchange with them, but didn’t dizzy come out of their exchange agreeing with dyachei that alison was wolfy? if you agreed with dya’s read, then surely your impression of dya wasn’t entirely negative, right? what made you get bad vibes from dya at the time?

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 31#p799531 - dizzy reiterates his concern about dya based on hally’s read

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 41#p799541 - i kind of like that dizzy acknowledges the dissonance of agreeing with dya’s read on alison while still finding dya suspicious (although his attitude toward dya is lukewarm at best here)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 32#p802832 - dizzy agrees that dya’s treatment of gavial/alison deserves further exploration, and remarks that he wants to ISO dya at some point. i hate posts like these but i dont know if i find them inherently wolfy

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 37#p802937 - …..hm. this post could point to dizzy being a villager because it involves a thought process that would be very difficult for a wolf to fake. ask me to expand on this point if i don’t do it myself

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803139 - dizzy says that dya is null to them in this post

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803639 - dizzy says that dya is one of their three non-townreads

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 44#p803644 - dizzy votes dyachei in this post. nice!

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 57#p803657 - here’s something interesting - dizzy joined the dyachei wagon when nutella and chloe had voted for dyachei back to back. upon seeing the wagon on dyachei grow significantly, vulgard said that he wanted to join the dyachei wagon. dizzy questions this, and asks him: “why?”. since vulgard was transparently trying to follow the thread momentum of dyachei, im not sure if dizzy would ask his wolf partner this question

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 05#p804205 - dizzy questions why dya does not seem thrilled by the alison wagon

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 32#p810632 - this was at a point where dya was basically doomed, so i’m not very interested in analyzing posts from this stage of the thread, but it is notable that dizzy put a fair amount of effort into ensuring the chop was steered onto dya (even though to my memory, it was still effectively a foregone conclusion)

c4-

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 77#p796677 - c4 answers dya’s early question about his read on me

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 80#p796780 - this is a post that’s been talked about at length already - c4 asks dya if they take criticism of their wolf game personally. i think this post is ultimately NAI

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 27#p797727 - c4 emphasizes that there’s virtually nothing to say about dya

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 68#p797968 - c4 puts dya in the upper null territory in his readslist

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 30#p798830 - c4 calls dya V for thinking that the wolfreads on them are unfair

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 74#p799574 - c4 reiterates that they don’t care about dya on d1

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 15#p799615 - c4 says that gavial flipping V would make dya V as well

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 7#p800157v - c4 says that he doesn’t care about dya “unless seth flips green”. the wording of this post makes it sound like c4 is implying dya would be wolfier if gavial flipped green, but c4 said that gavial flipping green would point to dya being a villager, so is this just a very sloppy way for c4 to reiterate that he would townread dya if gavial flipped green?

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 77#p800177 - c4 questions dya about their townread on amy

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 49#p801149 - this is weird. this shift is weird. c4 has spent all game up until this point emphasizing that he doesn’t care about dya and that gavial flipping green would make dya a villager, but upon seeing gavial flip green, c4 puts dya at the BOTTOM of his readslist, and starts fairly aggressively pushing for them. why did c4 suddenly decide that gavial flipping green pointed to dya being a wolf when he previously thought the opposite? why is he suddenly seeing what he was unable to see on d1?

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 01#p801601 - c4 has an exchange with dya about his scumread on them. i will say that this is one of the c4 posts that i like the most

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 59#p802759 - c4 reiterates that dya is a wolf in this post

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 96#p803396 - c4 continues pushing on dya

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 03#p804103 - c4 shows his support for a wagon on dya

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 12#p804212 - dya/c4 have another interaction where c4 confidently declares that dya is a wolf

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 67#p804867 - votes dya instantly on d3, says that if he’s a wolf then he’s at least bussing

THE VERDICT:
dizzy asks dyachei some fairly pointed questions early on. dizzy agrees with dya that alison is wolfy, but still shows some mild reservation about dya. dizzy declares that dya is one of the few people they don't townread on d2 and votes for them shortly after

c4 village reads dya early on, and then puts them in upper null territory. c4 reiterates multiple times that they don't care about dya's alignment. c4 says that gavial flipping V would make dya V, and then proceeds to hard tunnel dya upon seeing gavial's V flip - confidently tunneling them and pushing on them in spite of having very little to say about them on d1. c4 has some mildly good looking interactions with dya in the middle of all of this

i really want c4 to get a win at this point, lol, but my hesitations about some of the early stuff he said/thought about dya means that dizzy comes out of this round looking a little better than c4, once again. i don’t actually think that dizzy’s interactions with dya are all that alignment indicative, but i don’t take specific issue with his progression (and there is actually a post or two i really like), whereas i find c4’s shift on dyachei a little contradictory and difficult to wrap my head around

WINNER: Dizzy

Round 6 (FINAL ROUND!!!!) Dyachei VS C4 and Dyslexicon

C4 -

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 82#p796682 - dya interrogates c4 about his read on me

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 50#p797550 - dya justifies their townread on amy to c4

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 02#p797802 - dya says that c4 is acting differently from CoV (with the implication that this makes c4 villagery)

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 54#p797854 - dya encourages sunbae to ISO c4 in CoV and compare their games

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 24#p798024 - dya shades c4 for ignoring their posts

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 25#p799525 - dya puts c4 as a village lean (SIDENOTE: if c4 is a villager, this means that every single read in this list is a read on a villager)

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 37#p800137 - brief exchange in this post. fairly softball

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p800165 - dya puts c4 as a villa lean again

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 86#p801486 - dya has a fairly aggressive interaction with c4 around this post, and seems perturbed by his logic

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 54#p801554 - interestingly, this exchange does not seem to change dya’s read on c4 at all, since they proceed to reiterate that c4 is probably V

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 52#p802652 - reiterates their V read on c4 to sunbae

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 95#p803295 - per sunbae’s request, dya ISOs c4 and pokes at his progression on me

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 77#p803377 - another brief exchange here and here https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 00#p803400

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 16#p803416 - dya reiterates that they are having “second thoughts” about c4

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p803965 - dya puts c4 second to bottom from their list of reads

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 77#p804177 - dya asks why im so confident that c4 is a villager

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 96#p804196 - dya interrogates c4 for a couple of posts

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 50#p805250 - reiterates that c4 is wolfy

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 59#p807059 - more shade on c4

dizzy:

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p798165 - dya asks dizzy a short question

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 84#p798684 - dya townreads dizzy quite a bit when dizzy asks for their read on him. notably, dya doesn’t answer dizzy’s question about alison here, and only does so when prompted again by dizzy on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 02#p798702

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p800165 - dya puts dizzy in the “dont know what to do with” tier

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 04#p804204 - dya answers one of dizzy’s questions about the gamestate feeling stagnant

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p803965 - dya puts dizzy 4th from the bottom of their readslist

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 79#p806379 - this is an interaction in this game

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 22#p808022 - dya presents a reason for why dizzy/vulgard probably arent teamed. the reasoning in this post is just outright incorrect - dizzy had pushed fairly aggressively for marl to be chopped over vulgard, and i wonder if dya would misremember the stuff that their own partner did to such a significant extent. sloppy read? maybe, but i find it notable that dya starts lolcatting after this exchange

THE VERDICT: dya interrogated c4 early on, and then went out of their way to bring attention to the fact that c4 was acting differently from CoV. dya shades c4 but continues to townread him regardless until the middleish of d2, at which point their read on c4 does a fairly significant shift. dya continues being suspicious of c4 until they die.

dya townread dizzy early on but then later put them in the "dont know what to do with tier", dya continued to put dizzy in the lower bottom tier while not really talking to him or referencing him much at all. dya argues that vulgard/dizzy aren't teamed for a reason based on stuff that did not happen in the game

you know what? out of the kindness of my own heart, i’ll give this one to c4. dya’s interactions with dizzy are fairly non-descript and dya put dizzy in a position that’s typical for partners, whereas dya’s interactions with c4 were more passionate and have a lot more moving parts

i dont actually think that this points to c4 being a villager though - i honestly feel like dya might put more effort into trying to distance from dizzy instead of just lazily writing him off as a villager while still keeping him in their POE, and i also feel like the early exchange where dya didn’t respond to dizzy’s question about alison looked kinda good for dizzy

WINNER: c4

The Results:

Dizzy: 4 wins
C4: 1 win
Draws: 1

[staypositivefriend]

anyway, the short version of all of that is that i think that c4 is the wolf. sparknotes version:

-c4 is compatible with KZA

-c4 declared that vulgard was "always town" at multiple points throughout the game, but he willingly turned on vulgard the moment that sunbae claimed - only to then proceed to hedge on vulgard's alignment entirely and refuse to take a firm stance one way or another, which is oddly disproportionate to how c4 treated vulgard earlier in the game. i suspect that c4 immediately voting vulgard upon seeing sunbae's claim only to backtrack came from a place of TMI.

- vulgard seemed hyperaware of c4's position in the thread and his read on c4 primarily gravitated with thread consensus - vulgard went out of his way to "case" c4 only to hedge on his alignment and go back to townreading him shortly after. vulgard threw a lot of shade on c4 toward the very end of his life, but he made no real effort to get c4 killed when he was alive

-c4 townread/nullread dya early on, and remarked several times that gavial flipping V would make dya a villager. after gavial flipped V, c4's read on dyachei did a dramatic turnaround that seems outright contradictory to his mindset on d1, and it's a switch that i find very difficult to buy as authentic, especially because of how much he "played up" the drama of the interactions between dyachei and himself

-dya's read on c4 shifted almost in lockstep with c4's read shifting on them - they both started AGGRESSIVELY gunning for each other during d2 after primarily protecting one another on d2

-dizzy poked at bronana's read on kza on d1 in a way that i lean on him not being likely to do as a wolf

-dizzy correctly called out dya/vulgard for being teamed extremely early into the game

-dizzy came into d2 wolfreading vulgard/dya, but proceeded to passionately argue for marluxion being a wolf upon seeing marluxion claim w/a guilty on c4. if dizzy's agenda coming into d2 was to hardbus both of his partners, then i'm doubtful that he would shift his focus in such a dramatic way to push for a read that he would know would never pick up steam.

-vulgard townreads dizzy early on in a way that feels more like buddying than TMI

-vulgard was uncharacteristically terse with dizzy when addressing the concern that he and dyachei could be partnered, as though he was attempting to brush it off

-vulgard goes out of his way to defend dizzy from sunbae, an action that would be unnecessary in a vulgard/dizzy W/W world because dizzy was not in any realistic danger at the time that sunbae made his case

-dizzy interrogated dya early on and went out of his way to follow-up on a question they didn't answer

-i'm making a couple of assumptions here, but i think it's villagery that dizzy agreed with me that alison/dya had wolf equity together even though he didn't voice that read at any point during d1 (to my memory). at the time, dizzy had been wolfreading both dya and alison individually of each other, and the fact that his read naturally shifted into: "the two of them might be teamed" without him ever explicitly stating it in the thread is the type of silent internal progression that i feel is villager indicative for dizzy

-dizzy asked vulgard a question about his vote on dyachei at a time when i believe vulgard was trying to subtly shift his stance on dya w/out anyone noticing - it would be fairly bold for dizzy to call out his partner in the way that he did in that circumstance

-dya's treatment of dizzy early on looked reasonably non-partnered

not all of these points are equally strong, but they all point me in the direction of: "dizzy is probably a villager and c4 is probably a wolf". poking at the individual points here is probably a waste of time, because the individual points are not as important as what they holistically point me to

the last few dayphases have been rough for me - i didnt have the mental energy to closely RR the game and analyze spew, but i also didn't have the working memory required for me to properly contextualize the interactions that were being talked about. i mostly just interrogated people in real time and hoped that the POE would naturally sort itself out - it didn't. so, this is my attempt to make myself an obvious villager by writing an unprecedented level of analysis and putting my heart into figuring out who the final wolf is. right now, i think it's c4. i'm not married to that world, but it's the world that i feel has the highest chance of being true

let's see what happens next!

[c4e5g3d5]

[c4e5g3d5]

Should've rolled over
Visor might have survived this F3

[c4e5g3d5]

It looks like we're looking at the rare F3 FoS triangle
Still think it's probably Dizzy but looking at who's alive we can agree that there's a wolf out of their wolf range so I can't take that easy route
Plus nut's read could hold some weight with her death

[c4e5g3d5]

Exactly how eyebrow-raising would a non-nut kill be
Enough to make Dizzy pass up that likely easy misvote?

I know her reads change on a dime but she was really shutting down Dizzy talk there

[c4e5g3d5]

Although if we're talking about nut legacy then uh
Heheh

I should do this with at least three hours of sleep

[Dyslexicon]

I have thots. But after work probs

[Dyslexicon]

@c4e5g3d5 Can you talk a little bit more about how you square this situation right now?

Do you still think SPF is definitely town? Does her long walls make you think she's town?

[Dyslexicon]

@staypositivefriend

this is a post i’d like dizzy to clarify a little bit - dizzy says that he didn’t get good feelings about dyachei during his exchange with them, but didn’t dizzy come out of their exchange agreeing with dyachei that alison was wolfy? if you agreed with dya’s read, then surely your impression of dya wasn’t entirely negative, right? what made you get bad vibes from dya at the time?

I think I felt sub par about both Alison and Dya at the time. At first, I didn't think they could be teamed, but later I considered that they maybe could (though didn't really believe it much). Also, a bit awkward, but I didn't really want to be too vocal about my suspicion on Dya cause I feel like they can react with getting angry about getting scum read, and I didn't really want to receive that. Others were also pushing Dya, so it wasn't like I needed to focus much attention there. The main reason I was suspicious of them was because I felt they didn't really want to interact with me and was much softer in their approach to me than I would expect if they really wanted to figure out my alignment. I felt they were kind of just avoiding me.

---

It's undeniably impressive that you're doing this work. Good on you.

How sure are you in your conclusion?

If you're sure, what is the reason you haven't placed a vote yet?
I'm not saying you should, but I'm asking about it to hear your perspective on it.

[Dyslexicon]

Jumbled thoughts be like

- My prediction is that the team c4 is on is going to lose.
- c4 is a much easier vote to make for me just from the amount of work SPF is putting in, and how c4 has been almost chopped several times now. So if SPF is scum, which wouldn't shock me at all at all, it would be "easy" to just go, ok, well played, and move on. It's a thing that is a factor here, even if it "shouldn't" be.
- SPF have more posts, but she also have many more posts that I very much dislike. There's a bunch of posts around when Vulgard was jailed that I remember really disliking at the time for how much they just seemed like empty (nervous?) phrases that basically ended up saying "Since I'm town, I don't know" (from memory, so don't @ me). She's also had questions that just strikes me as super weird, like "how is this even a problem or how is this not self explanatory"-weird. Like pushing c4 for not self sacrificing. (Ironically, if c4 is town, self sacrificing might've been the better play lolol). We all fucked up too many times now, and somehow, I still hold SPF to such a high standard that I have a hard time forgiving her for it, even though I totally did the same lol. Her insistence that her interaction with Dya should clear her is also something I don't buy. It does prove that SPF probably wasn't outright bussing Dya trying to get cred for it, but there's many more (and better!) ways to interact with a teammate. Why was it not just that? I'm not saying it was, it just doesn't prove that she's town to me. So those are some things at the top of my head that doesn't sit well with me. That said, I also remember KZA and Dya having posts that could point to TMI on SPF as town. It's not as hard as Nut, but it's still there I recalled last night. Her digging and playing the game hard is great. I don't really find it AI though. I know it wouldn't be for me, or slightly wolf indicative if I were to do organised posts in F3 lol.
- c4 does have fewer posts that I dislike. But he's pretty "meh", as Visor pointed out. I don't even have much to say. Reading SPFs interaction analysis, what I see is both good and bad things from c4. The particularly bad that I want to hear c4 talk about is his turnaround on Dya from D1 to D2. It be weird.
- Also like wtf is mafia still such a hard game. Shouldn't it be easy by now? Supposedly I'm a "good" player, but this is still just hard. Why do I have fog in my brain and what meditative practice should I apply to get rid of it?
- That fucking Vul post mentioning potentially the whole scum team in one post, what a troll.
- Visor was right about everything.

And I hope that there is a time that we're all on at the same time.

So what I'm going to do is this:
- ISO c4 myself. I haven't read all his posts.
- ISO SPF myself. I haven't read all her posts.
- ISO Vul looking at word usage. It worked for Dya, it may work here was well.

[Dyslexicon]

All in all, I actually feel like c4 feels more uninformed than SPF does. I wonder if that makes any kind of sense. Excited to see if ISOing will actually help me here and hope it does. It's not something I like to do tbh, but it does sometimes help.

[Dyslexicon]

Also, does c4 kill Zack and then Nut?
Does SPF kill Zack and then argue that it should make Visor look good? Did SPF not kill Nut because Nut was super suss on SPF at the time, so it would reflect badly on her?

NK analysis is just wifom. NK analysis is just wifom. NK analysis is just wifom. NK analysis is just wifom. NK analysis is just wifom.
NK analysis is just wifom. NK analysis is just wifom. NK analysis is just wifom. NK analysis is just wifom. NK analysis is just wifom.

[c4e5g3d5]

@c4e5g3d5 Can you talk a little bit more about how you square this situation right now?

Do you still think SPF is definitely town? Does her long walls make you think she's town?

The walls? Oh fuck no, that's as squarely inside her wolf range as it gets. It's just her whole approach this game that's hard to see as anything other than playing by discovery. As a wolf I think she really needs to carefully plan everything, because if she doesn't she'll toss salads like I've seen her do before. Her wall today could easily be viewed as that brand of planned, and the dramatic wording is characteristic of her wolf game, but her play in early days less so.

I ignored dya D1 because I thought Seth spewed them. I abruptly didn't think Seth spewed dya on D2. Then I saw that opportunistic dichotomy.

@staypositivefriend I don't know what to do with this information but you definitely didn't include Vulgard's entire treatment of me because neighborhood.

[c4e5g3d5]

If her posts today were all the material I could read her with, I'd just straight up call her a wolf. But they're not.

[staypositivefriend]

Jumbled thoughts be like

- My prediction is that the team c4 is on is going to lose.
- c4 is a much easier vote to make for me just from the amount of work SPF is putting in, and how c4 has been almost chopped several times now. So if SPF is scum, which wouldn't shock me at all at all, it would be "easy" to just go, ok, well played, and move on. It's a thing that is a factor here, even if it "shouldn't" be.
- SPF have more posts, but she also have many more posts that I very much dislike. There's a bunch of posts around when Vulgard was jailed that I remember really disliking at the time for how much they just seemed like empty (nervous?) phrases that basically ended up saying "Since I'm town, I don't know" (from memory, so don't @ me). She's also had questions that just strikes me as super weird, like "how is this even a problem or how is this not self explanatory"-weird. Like pushing c4 for not self sacrificing. (Ironically, if c4 is town, self sacrificing might've been the better play lolol). We all fucked up too many times now, and somehow, I still hold SPF to such a high standard that I have a hard time forgiving her for it, even though I totally did the same lol. Her insistence that her interaction with Dya should clear her is also something I don't buy. It does prove that SPF probably wasn't outright bussing Dya trying to get cred for it, but there's many more (and better!) ways to interact with a teammate. Why was it not just that? I'm not saying it was, it just doesn't prove that she's town to me. So those are some things at the top of my head that doesn't sit well with me. That said, I also remember KZA and Dya having posts that could point to TMI on SPF as town. It's not as hard as Nut, but it's still there I recalled last night. Her digging and playing the game hard is great. I don't really find it AI though. I know it wouldn't be for me, or slightly wolf indicative if I were to do organised posts in F3 lol.
- c4 does have fewer posts that I dislike. But he's pretty "meh", as Visor pointed out. I don't even have much to say. Reading SPFs interaction analysis, what I see is both good and bad things from c4. The particularly bad that I want to hear c4 talk about is his turnaround on Dya from D1 to D2. It be weird.
- Also like wtf is mafia still such a hard game. Shouldn't it be easy by now? Supposedly I'm a "good" player, but this is still just hard. Why do I have fog in my brain and what meditative practice should I apply to get rid of it?
- That fucking Vul post mentioning potentially the whole scum team in one post, what a troll.
- Visor was right about everything.

And I hope that there is a time that we're all on at the same time.

So what I'm going to do is this:
- ISO c4 myself. I haven't read all his posts.
- ISO SPF myself. I haven't read all her posts.
- ISO Vul looking at word usage. It worked for Dya, it may work here was well.

should i be concerned about the fact that your post of misc thoughts has absolutely nothing to do with the large wall of text that i had just posted (and that you presumably read)?

how are you still regurgitating the same vague points you made from a dayphase or two ago (ie: "SPF had posts from when Vulgard was jailed that I disliked) without appearing to have any new thoughts about the literally 5K+ words that i wrote about this game?? i feel like you're just listing off a bunch of stuff from memory instead of coming up with new insight. most of these thoughts dont give me the impression that you're honestly putting a lot of thought or effort into coming to the correct answer here, and i'm being harsh right now because i need to see that genuine gamesolving effort from you for me to feel more comfortable

also i thought we went over the c4 self-sacrifice stuff yesterday - i was not shading c4 for not self-sacrificing, i was implying that c4 had mindset dissonance for implying that he wanted to die before the f3 but making a move that showed the opposite of that. the issue isn't him self-preserving, the issue is him making a big show about how he shouldn't be alive for the f3 only to willingly vote someone he thought was a villager solely for the sake of self-preservation

we could go into the other points in this post (the dya stuff, for instance) but i honestly have already been over them so many times that i think you just need to carefully read my posts if you're actually a villager