PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[c4e5g3d5]

so whos the wolf then

out of nutella, myself and dyslexicon

I think nut's town
I think you're town
I think Dizzy's town

As you can see we have a problem here

[c4e5g3d5]

how am i supposed to find you as a villager lol

you havent posted in 3 days phases basically

This has been half of your posts in the last two cycles
The horse is dead

[outed wolf]

im surprised youve seen my posts

so you think all of us are villagers

... you have to pick two to kill that arent you?

[c4e5g3d5]

im surprised youve seen my posts

so you think all of us are villagers

... you have to pick two to kill that arent you?

Significantly more likely one but yes

[outed wolf]

well yes you are likely to die today, but in the event you dont who would be your top 2 to kill

[c4e5g3d5]

well yes you are likely to die today, but in the event you dont who would be your top 2 to kill

Idfk
I'm still completely lost and figuring it out would take energy that I need elsewhere
You-know-where

[c4e5g3d5]

You wanna tell me if my reasons for any particular thing suck?

[outed wolf]

i dont know what your reasons are lol

can you order your reads maybe and just give a sentence or two?

[outed wolf]

whats your confidence level on reading spf here

would you bet the game on it?

talk to me about dizzy more

[c4e5g3d5]

whats your confidence level on reading spf here

would you bet the game on it?

Would be 100 in most games
No idea what to do in these zomg situations
Do I just stick with the 100 or do I need to mega trustfall everything

talk to me about dizzy more

What Dizzy said about his D3
The reaction was incredibly raw in hindsight

[outed wolf]

Anything else you think worth pointing out?

[c4e5g3d5]

Anything else you think worth pointing out?

Was this question really written with the intent of figuring something out
What kind of answer were you looking for
Want me to multiquote my entire ISO or smth

[outed wolf]

Trying to get you to say anything that might help

[c4e5g3d5]

Anything that I can think of I've already said
Sorry to disappoint

[c4e5g3d5]

Contrary to popular belief, I have posts

[c4e5g3d5]

Actually you know what
Sick legacy
Someone who spends the entire endgame parroting the same thing is someone who knows he can win by doing that
[VOTE: outed wolf] aubergine

[outed wolf]

That's a start I guess

[c4e5g3d5]

@Dyslexicon @nutella spf's still probably just town
Ez game

[c4e5g3d5]

Yeah the fact is that she's still just light years out of her wolf range and in so many non-trivial ways
@nutella I'll give you Dizzy if you'll give me spf
The fact is that not only have I always correctly read her, but the first game we played together was the only game where we rolled v/v and I didn't lock her town on D1.

[outed wolf]

Gimme some examples of you can

[c4e5g3d5]

In the morn

[nutella]

Im so drnk

visor wolf

Gg

[outed wolf]

How about no

[outed wolf]

Nutella you have no idea how to read me or anyone left alive in the game you are just hoping I'm a wolf because you don't know the answer

(If you're a wolf this is gonna seem big dumb but whatever tangrowth and Hally and Alison and Zack all thought you were a villa)

[outed wolf]

You jump on the most irrelevant stuff and confirmation bias it till the cows come home by slowly building it up in your head

It's the same thing you did to spf (though who knows you might be right about that one )

I would prefer you just admit you don't know rather than keep pushing me for silly reasons that you hope more than anything else is correct

[outed wolf]

I also don't know the answer. I have leans and thoughts about what I will do in each circumstance but I have little confidence here and am basically relying on being pure in f3 to beat the wolf if we get there. It's a weak strategy but it feels like my best option.

[nutella]

Lol cool words but I'm drumjk

[outed wolf]

I'm sorry if the above came across overly harsh but I am getting tired of being the poster child for must be a wolf because I'm in endgame and aren't always the easiest to follow. Please stop looking at nittery stuff and take a look at the bigger picture.

[outed wolf]

The reason why Zack and I cleared each other but didn't lock it in was because it's a real ego blow to misclear your friend. I nearly mentioned it the other day but I'll state it here: he just didn't want to lose to me wholesale. And neither did I to him lol.

Frankly I should be clear but I guess I am just the easiest non C4 answer. I really hope he's a wolf or tomorrow is gonna get ugly.

[Arete]

@c4e5g3d5
@Dyslexicon
@nutella
@outed wolf
@staypositivefriend

Hi.

So, I'm not totally sure what would be most helpful right now, so I guess I'm just going to start with going through everyone on the playerlist and thoughtsdumping about them?

these are vaguely organized from more town to more scum

Nutella

I've re-read the her-Dya interactions a couple times and I feel like she's just spewed V, Dya seemed really genuinely annoyed with her push on them in a way that feels super unpartnery. I have a harder time commenting on her actual reads because she changes them every five minutes which kind of throws a wrench in things I would normally find alignment indicative. Supposedly she has a clear meta difference and is in her town meta? I don't know her meta so I can't comment, I wouldn't expect 'change your reads every five minutes' to be hard to fake but I assume it goes deeper than that.

outed wolf

He seems to be a suspect for a lot of people but I honestly ... don't see it? If he's a wolf then I think he would always know after Vul got redchecked that he needed to deepwolf and win endgame, and I don't think his hero CFD to save Dya makes sense from that PoV. (Like, if he's a wolf I think the reason he would do that would be to create 'why would I do that as wolf' WifoM rather than to save Dya, and I don't really think that's a plan that makes sense, it has a lot of backfire potential.) There are also various micro reasons I find him villagery (the way Dya treated him + bronana, the way he went out of his way to mock reads, etc.) I'm honestly kind of confused on what the reason for suspicion on him is in the first place.

I don't know. Maybe I'm wolfsiding again, but I really don't think it's him.

Dizzy

I think if I look at his solving, particularly re: Vulgard, he seems very likely to be a villager. I have a hard time seeing him, as wolf, come up with that extremely nitpicky wording read on why Vul and Dya are W/W, particularly since it tied Vul to Dya (who was pretty much always dying in the next couple of days). I also just don't sort of thing it's the type-of-read a wolf comes up with in general? like it's an extremely specific + non-generic thing to point out. (I'm honestly not sure if it was actually alignment-indicative for him, even knowing that he was scum? but still.) I guess maybe if he were a wolf with TMI that Vul and Dya were scum who thought it was a smoking gun that the villagers would notice any second?? but that's not consistent with how he treated the read, nor with the fact that it had been in the thread for a while with no one noticing.

I do have a couple hesitations with his treatment of my slot yesterday -- like, he came into the day being like 'Nutella and I talked about it and we've concluded it's probably not Arete' and then slowly let himself get convinced over the course of the day it was me, and despite him outlining his progression clearly in the thread I'm still not totally sure how he got there? Like, some of the points that were brought up against me were new, but a lot of them had been brought up previously. E.g.:

Spoiler: show

I'm currently considering if it could just be Arete. Their interaction with Vulgard is very over the top and bizarre. I think if they are wolf, it would be a case of deciding to town read each other and hard defend each other, given their (apparent???) history together in reading each other. I gather that they are friends outside of mafia perhaps?
The thing is that I've seen Arete jump to Vulgard's defence in ways that are just absurd. "Being wrong is NAI for Vulgard" is one example. Because being wrong is obviously NAI for anyone.
Hopefully I can do work to clear others. Nut spoke about Visor going after Dya in our night chat, and I'm pretty ok to follow on this. I haven't read those parts yet. Tbh, there's still much I haven't read.

I find it really hard to believe that me hard defending Vul didn't come up in his night chat with Nutella, so if he concluded I was town during that chat, it seems weird for him to reverse his read on that basis? It also totally ignores the context on me calling Vul having bad reads NAI but if he was ISOing me that basically makes sense.

I don't know, I still think he's probably town, I just think that in particular is a bit weird and could make sense from a wolf who realized that they need me to be voted out as part of their p a t h t o v i c t o r y.

(I don't think that logic applies to Nutella because she changes her reads constantly so her changing her mind on me is NAI.)

c4

So, okay. This slot is definitely one that I have conflicted feelings about. I do think That One Vulgardpost is a good look for him, and the 'he already put two teammates there, why not a third?' explanation is kind of silly, like, it ignores the whole reason it would be unlikely for him to call out three teammates at once? But I don't think it's completely impossible that Vul was messing around/trying to do it because people wouldn't expect it. I do separately think his treatment of Alison demonstrates a lack of TMI -- in particular, him acting frustrated at EoD2 that he had been accused of TMIing Alison V (with the implication being that she was a wolf for not showing up and claiming) isn't really what I would expect from a wolf at what I perceive as his experience level.

On the other hand, I have a hard time coming up with macro level reasons he's a villager, mostly because he hasn't really done much. Also, he seemed super convinced all game that I was never W/W with Vulgard, but made ~no meaningful attempt at changing the wagons despite me being a pretty consensus wagon at many points during the day, which kind of matches how wolves sometimes treat villagers that they don't want to be seen pushing but can't save.

His self-pres vote is strictly NAI, it's mechanically correct for villagers to self-pres.

If he's a wolf he's not really trying to win but I think that's basically NAI for him, lots of wolves pretty much give up if they don't think they have a chance/don't want to spend the rest of the game defending themself/etc.

SPF

I find her posts surface-level villagery, I suppose? Also she pushed a wolf, which is neat, but not really clearing since basically everyone who's still alive pushed wolves at some point.

I don't think her Dya progression is clearing, the argument she's making is that in CoV she was way more focused on getting cred/looking flashy but she was voted out mid-day 4 in CoV so I think it would be reasonable for her to tone it down? (I wasn't actually in CoV so I don't know if she was suspected for bussing too hard or for bussing not hard enough or for some other reason, it would be cool if someone who followed that game more closely could comment.)
A particular issue I take with her posting is that there are a lot of places where it feels like she's trying to make people look bad for reasons that are either NAI, or that she doesn't actually "believe." For instance, she tried to shade me yesterday for not leaving behind a clear and explicit legacy where I've specifically narrowed down the last wolf, rather than my actual state of 'not being sure but still trying to solve':

I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE
(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

i mean, my reads are largely based on POE too, i just havent really gotten the impression that youre super worried about whether or not im town?
like i do think that you have a solid chance at being the last wolf, but i'm also very worried about being wrong. i don't sense a similar sense of worry or concern from your end of things

I mean yeah I'm not super worried about being wrong because I've known for most of the day that I was probably getting voted out today and so my reads mostly don't actually "matter" in the sense of affecting the chances of the last wolf being voted out? like I feel like when I phrase it that way it sounds like I'm saying that I don't care about solving, which is false, but like, I don't expect that me reading you as a wolf-by-PoE, if you are a villager, is going to particularly influence anyone
that's still a super bad phrasing that completely fails to communicate what I'm actually trying to communicate
weh

on the contrary, if you feel like you're going to end up dying today, then isn't even more important to leave behind a solid legacy that you can feel good and confident about?

But today, she goes out of the way to discredit the idea of meaningfully listening to my reads:

Open question: How about we let Aroot choose the chop for today?
She is confirmed town. She can post.

no

Because?

half because they wolfread me and half because i dont really agree with letting individual people "lead" the chops in general

which makes me think that she didn't really believe that 'me not leaving an explicit legacy' is wolfy, or at the very least if she did then that intersects very weirdly with her other beliefs. Like, for her beliefs to line up here she basically has to believe 'PoE villagers should leave an explicit legacy where they have perfectly identified who the wolves are as a performative demonstration of their towniness with no bearing on actually solving' which I guess is consistent with how a lot of the game was treating me but still feels like a weird thing to believe.

Also, she's been shading c4 for self-presing onto me, which is a really questionable argument given that self-pres is always mechanically optimal. Granted, this isn't her entire point and her argument is slightly more reasonable in context but it still overall leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

I got the vague sense re-reading the last couple of days that she knew that the game wasn't going to end but this is mostly gut, not a serious point.

Also, this is a minor point, but she's been really insistent that her Dya interactions are clearing because she wasn't specifically trying to make it over the top for cred but even when it was explicitly brought up she never seemed to at all consider the fact that I tried to save Alison over Dya while making literally no attempt whatsoever to get cred from it. Like, I understand not clearing me for that if you're starting from the assumption that I'm a completely incompetent wolf who likes getting my partners killed in ways that provide me with literally no benefit whatsoever, which apparently everyone in the game was since you all kept bringing it up as a point, but she ... never even considered the fact that I was trying to kill Dya while making literally no attempt to get credit ... despite her main argument for herself being not W/W with Dya being the fact that she wasn't trying to get cred. This is a minor point, I think my other points are more compelling.

Anyways. I shuffled around the last three on the list a couple times, I'm pretty confident in Nutella and outed wolf V. At this point if I got to choose the chops I would kill SPF and then c4 in that order.

---

The Bronana nightkill felt weird from my PoV but probably makes ~reasonable sense given that other people mostly townread him more than I did. Shrug.

---

oh right arete can post
(also they* btw)
@Arete would love opinions on outed wolf

I think he's a villager, see above.

I have to go now, but there's something I'm interested to check. If anyone wants to bother or if @Arete has the time and feel it's interesting:
How was c4's position when Vulgard and Dya both decided to lolcat? Did he look not teamed with them, was he set up for a win?
How did c4 react the day we yeeted Dya? He said something about the PoE, when he really wanted me in it. Did the PoE include Dya or was it just him and Syn? This last question is confusing, but I'm interested in what he said that day.
Basically, largely - Was c4 boxed in when Dya/Vulgard kind of gave up? Cause if he was, it does't really make sense that it's him.

Dya started lolcatting in P#3315. As far as I could find in terms of discussion of c4's alignment from people who are not flipped wolves (I'm skipping some discussion that's related to c4 but not his alignment) (this is from the 200ish posts before Dya started lolcatting)
- In P#3232 Visor asks for thoughts on c4's popin, in P#3234 Bronana says it was "not good lol"
- in P#3179 and P#3180 Marl asks him for thoughts and lightly shades him for doing nothing
- in P#3120 Dizzy vaguely implies he could be a wolf with Marl
- in P#3137 outed wolf says " I wager our wolf guesses will all be in C4 Chloe dya"
So basically, there was some mild anti-c4 sentiment, but mostly not super major.

---

re: the question Dizzy asked me yesterday, about early reactions to Vul being outed:
Wolves would have known as of P#2675 that Vul was basically outed (when Amy spelled it out explicitly). Every post from then to P#3702 (when Marl claimed the jailkeep on c4) is basically NAI or from a dead player (though I did almost explain why bronana had a villagery reaction, lolArete).
After Marl claimed:
- P#2703 - Nutella seemingly believed it pretty much instantly. probably >rand to be not TMI?
- P#2706 - Nut speculates on what it means for Nutella's alignment in a mildly yikes way although maybe she wouldn't have done so in a world where she knows the redcheck is fake?
- P#2710 - Visor seems confused at c4's response ('I'm gonna say that's probably not true but I've seen weirder kills.') I kind of believe this is genuine confusion.
oh and I forgot c4 was alive for a moment. I think he was genuinely unsure what happened but that he would be genuinely confused regardless of his alignment.
P#2711 - kind of think Nutella doesn't say this if she has TMI it's fake and c4 is V
P#2713 - 'well, that's embarrassing' from SPF. a lot of people have been calling this town from her but I honestly don't see it.
P#2716 is kind of meh for how it ties him to Dya
P#2718 from SPF I have mixed feelings about. I'm not sure that her doubting the check makes sense from her PoV since she wasn't convinced he was Always The Lockest Of Towns but her emotions kind of seem real.
a few other miscellaneous posts in the meantime most of which don't pull me super strongly either way.
P#2747 - Sunbae counters with a check on Vul
it takes a couple posts for people to notice
P#2752 - Visor calls Sunbae's check "spicy". don't feel strongly either way about this.
P#2753 - c4 instavotes Vul, I think this makes sense regardless of his alignment since he's the one the previous check was claimed on.
P#2656 - Visor basically ignores the check and instead continues to call c4 bad and wolfy. I think this is ... probably mildly good?? like it just doesn't seem like he cares at all about the check. which is kind of confusing regardless of his alignment, honestly, so I guess maybe it's not good after all.
P#2757 pretty NAI reaction from Nutella
P#2761 okay this kind of just feels like Visor doesn't know what to say
a few miscellaneous posts in the middle that are mostly fairly NAI
P#2784 - SPF finally comes back, says she feels less dumb. I want to call her frozen because she posted in the minute before Sunbae hardclaimed and then didn't post for seven minutes after the claim but that's probably dumb, lots of reasons that could happen as a villager.
P#2788 from SPF 'assuming that sunbae sticks to his claim and assuming that vulgard is a wolf, i'm perfectly okay with calling marluxion locktown based on that. it would require an absurd amount of mental gymnastics for him and vulgard to fake that dynamic as wolves' - I have no idea what to do with this
Visor shades Dya a lot on this page. don't really think that would be his immediate reaction to Vul being outed.
and then a whole bunch of people call me W/W with him but they can't possibly all be wolves trying to set me up

sorry for not looking into your Alison question, I didn't really think I could do it justice without rereading all 26ish pages of D2.

---

I thiiiink that's all I had to say, I hope it helps. Probably in five minutes I'll remember another thing I wanted to say and feel dumb.

Sorry this is a little later than I was hoping, I spent most of yesterday on a train having gotten about 15 minutes of sleep the previous night. But I think you should have time to consider it before EoD? Anyways.

Good luck.

[outed wolf]

Thx arete

[outed wolf]

fwiw i believe the zack kill is to remove a defender of me, just like the marl kill was to remove a defender of arete (yes they were both clear but thats what i think was the plan)

i believe i am the wolfs path to victory

[outed wolf]

damn arete, i wish i pushed harder for c4 yesterday.

you nutella and me couldve run this one in

[outed wolf]

fwiw im at c4/spf too.

just like arete, zack, and presumably dizzy

i imagine spf is c4/me and nutella is either passed out or has a tough 50/50 tomorrow if c4 is a villa

[outed wolf]

i imagine dizzy gets killed tonight if they're a villa

so glglglgl nutella (and dont call this fucking post tmi if dizzy DOES die)

[staypositivefriend]

fwiw im at c4/spf too.

just like arete, zack, and presumably dizzy

i imagine spf is c4/me and nutella is either passed out or has a tough 50/50 tomorrow if c4 is a villa

yeah that's essentially where im at

[staypositivefriend]

i am home and not entirely sober

ama if anyone is around

[outed wolf]

im around obv but i dont have any questions

[nutella]

cool stuff arete ty

@wolf if not c4, just remember that if you take me to f3 i'll hate you forever, so jot that down

[nutella]

that was mean sorry i should be asleep

[outed wolf]

nutella you're going to be in f3 if we're wrong (and you're a villager (lol having to qualify this we already know what i mean))

cause the wolf needs you to vote me lol

be prepared pal!

[outed wolf]

well i guess you'd be in f3 if you're a wolf too

but if you're a villa you're not getting nked sorry

[nutella]

inb4 youre saying this so you can nk me for wifom

[outed wolf]

:curtain:

[nutella]

ive blasted wolf spf in f3 before and ill do it again

[outed wolf]

[outed wolf]

i think posting that gif reduces our win equity by like 2% because ppl love to get paranoid over posts like that

but #worth

[outed wolf]

you know what i came into today pretty damned stressed about this game despite trying not to be

but now? stress free. it suddenly like the answers been in front of me in the whole time. if i get it wrong at this point, ah well. its just nice to be stress free.

[outed wolf]

if the games not over tonight (and i think theres a reasonable chance c4 flips villa) don't stress fellow villagers

i have faith that regardless of the wolf whoever is alive in f3 can get there

glglglglglglgglglgl ill do my best to check in for eod

[c4e5g3d5]

The defining trait of spf's wolf game: She always knows what she's going to say long before she says it.
I get that a good amount of this might be a little hard to buy as out of her wolf range without experience. I'll leave comments on parts that I think are particularly accessible.

i can't really explain my feelings about c4 without getting into meta, so i kinda regret outing that read in the first place, but i liked that he dropped a silent vote on me, paused for a while, and then brought attention to his silent vote again when nobody responded to it. it felt like he was circling around me to see how i would react, and the fact that he made a point of bringing up his vote ~again~ after being ignored made me feel like his read carried real conviction/concern behind it

tangygrowth burst into a relatively tense thread and immediately became a beacon of positive energy. her primary concern wasn't to ~blend in~ or spew out a bunch of takes, but rather, to change the atmosphere of the thread and to make sure that everyone was still having fun. even as she was doing that, she zero'd in on nutella for a little while and made a point of outing a read on her (which i found villagery, or at least indicative of tangy trying to gradually get more comfortable with the game by focusing on someone that she already knows)

the strong tone paired with the lack of posts that felt focused on an agenda made me think that she was most likely just a villager. typical caveat that this read will change if tangy's trajectory doesn't go where i anticipate it will go

when i think of a wolf that is trying to "blend in" with a thread, i think of someone that's trying to match the vibe or the overall atmosphere of the thread they're in. a wolf in RVS will often be performatively casual/jokey because it's what they perceive as "normal" behavior. a wolf right outside of RVS will often force themselves to take stances or out reads because it's what they feel they "should" do. there are a lot of talented wolves that win games by mirroring other people and doing all the "right" things at the "right" moments

i think it's fair to say that tangy's posts up until the ones at the top of page 4 were "blending in" (i forgot she made any posts before that point TBQH), so that lends credibility to your point and diminishes mine a little bit

but i was specifically thinking about tangy's string of posts at the top of page 4 - she entered a thread that was in the middle of some pretty intense/divisive conversation, and there were a lot of reads/stances being thrown out. tangy's posts around that time were extremely casual and extremely relaxed - she expressed happiness at being in the game, she asked a few softball questions about my meta (among other things), but her commentary of the game itself was minimal and she seemed disinterested in giving her takes on the stuff that was going on, barring her read on nutella. her posts were casual in nature, but they were distinct from the vibe in the rest of the thread that is fairly unusual for wolves who are trying to dip their toes into the thread

kinda thinking that i'm clearing tangy too easily after writing this out tbh, but i do think that she's rand town so far

You can see how all of the pieces of the final argument can be derived from the first post and at the same time it's an organic discovery that truly required time to fully fruit

other misc stuff:

-i feel almost obligated to out a read on hally, but i'm honestly not sure what i think about them yet. i had some early concern w/the read they outed on amy and also a concern about their read on nutella coming from a place of TMI, but the rest of their posts are fine. there's nothing obviously alignment indicative about their posts in general and i'm kinda just in "wait and see" mode (this is also my current feeling about alison/dyachei/KZA/and zapp, to a lesser extent)

-i originally voted for gavial because he just felt uncomfortable. i had just gotten out of playing a game w/gavial where we were both villagers, and he was a huge source of energy in that game, and he was constantly trying to solve and bounce thoughts off of other people. his opening posts in this game felt meek in comparison - https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 87#p796787 felt like an attempt to blend in w/the vibe of the thread, and i couldn't tell if https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 8#p796658c was a joke post or a real read, but it felt equally stilted to me either way. his catch-up posts leave me feeling the same way

-i've come around to nutella most likely being a villager after thinking about it more

the rest of my thoughts are a little jumbled and i probably forgot to mention some stuff that's on my mind, so AMA

The sheer number of moving parts here would normally be enough for me on its own

lol i was just thinking about how it's weird that i dont really feel strongly about the trio of you/outed wolf/sunbae in either direction. the narrative of games like these tend to revolve around players like you three, and i feel like i've existed in a separate space from you three so far in this game. i don't know if that means anything

Trust me when I say this line in particular is just not a thing she bothers with as a wolf.

alison's a wolf lol

so you agree with me now?

i mostly just said that as a gut reaction to her post where she said she was keeping an open mind about gavial - something about it instinctually rubbed me the wrong way and i felt like calling her out and seeing how she reacted would help me read her, but her reaction was pretty bland

I don't know how to put this gently so I am just going to ask if you are all aware that Gavial is Seththeking and that being anti-town is NAI for him.

^^i actually do take issue with this post from alison, because i feel like she was trying to generalize all of the suspicion against gavial as being related to him being "anti-town", when it was very clear that the majority of suspicion toward him had nothing to do w/him being anti-town or pro-town. it felt like a post that was intended to steer the thread consensus in a specific direction, which isn't implausible for alison to do as a villager, but the generalization grinded my gears a bit

She wouldn't wait this long to say this and hedge on it. One or the other.

That's D1.