The Elder Scrolls [GAME OVER]

[Scotty]

let's see if I can outpost scotty today

[Vulgard]

Day 1, Daisy's on Seanzie, who flipped town.
Day 2, Daisy's on Made, who's a dead villager.
Day 3, Daisy's on Mogh, who flipped town.
Day 4. Admittedly, Daisy is on Falcon here, so my initial assertion was wrong. But she required some convincing to go there.
Day 5. Daisy is on Lost Monkey. But pretty much everyone is on Lost Monkey, so.

I'll admit my initial assertion of Daisy always voting villagers is wrong, but the other one still stands. "No alignment reads whatsoever" may be exaggerated but that is what I remember.

--

A world where Marmot's mafia.

Marmot being so eager to self-pres onto Falcon indicates he's a more important wolf PR than Falcon was (though the point about the razor passing on to the wolves is pretty important here). But in that case, he's been a wagon far too often. You could chalk it up to the wolves simply being potatoes incapable of shifting the wagons away from their member, and I might be able to believe that narrative. You could argue that Marmot surviving so many wagons is a testament to the fact wolves DID indeed try to save him.

D2 Marmot wagon: Kylemii, Made (V), Qwags (V).
D3 Marmot wagon: MR, Jack (V), Kylemii, TSP, Moghedien (V), Falcon (W), Nanook (dead V).
D4 Marmot wagon: Tim, LC, Made (V), Scotty.

Marmot has been voted at EoD by nearly every living player in this game. The exceptions are Gavial, DaisyCloud and myself. I have no idea how Gavial hasn't managed to vote Marmot at EoD while pushing the world that Marmot's mafia, but hey. As for me, I've made it clear that I thought Marmot was town. The third is Daisy.

If you'd like to extrapolate Marmot's partner from the votes (if Marmot's mafia), it would indeed be Daisy.

[Vulgard]

Are the voters on polls listed in the order of the votes being cast?

[Long Con]

No, unfortunately. They used to be, then something happened, and we don't have anyone skilled enough to fix it.

[Vulgard]

This is important if you want to argue Marmot is mafia. I'll elaborate on the reason why if the answer to my question is "yes."

[Scotty]

Recalcitrant

Say that 3 times and the ghost of Lindsey Lohan will haunt you forever

[Scotty]

Maybe a death sentence for my brain cells

Only if you keep engaging.

I get on this site in this corner of the internet to avoid trolls, but they find me. They find me.

[Vulgard]

Kyle was on the Falcon wagon d1, another good look for him.

Among the 9 Moghedien voters, two are confirmed mafia (Mac and LM). Others include Gavial, Marmot (self-pres), Scotty, Tim, Daisy.

Among the 7 Marmot voters, one is confirmed mafia (falcon) and the other is suspected mafia (MR). Others include Kyle and TSP (both very likely town).

If MR isn't mafia, then the Marmot wagon only had one wolf on it fmpov. On the contrary, the Moghedien wagon seems to have a bunch of them. We have two confirmed wolves on it and 5/9 of the voters still haven't flipped.

This points to Marmot being mafia with the wolves piling away from his wagon, unless MR is a wolf. And even then, you could argue that. The reason I asked about the vote order is because DaisyCloud and Mac's votes appear last on the Moghedien wagon. With Mac being a flipped wolf and Daisy being a suspected wolf, this looks like an evident save when viewed this way. This point is meaningless with the poll not showing votes in order, though.

LC voteparking on Gavial there actually makes me think he's 100% town if Marmot is mafia. But that's only if Marmot is mafia.

Day 4 wagon on Marmot looks remarkably pure. We have Tim (un CC'd vig), Made (flipped V), Scotty (likely V). The only two people I think could be wolves on the Falcon wagon (6 votes) are Marmot and DaisyCloud. Falcon and LM, both wolves, didn't even bother to vote Marmot to save their partner.

I think this might be telling. If wagons are W/W, it doesn't really matter to these two which wolf flips. Falcon not self-pressing is a bad look for Marmot and LM not voting to tie the wagons is yet another bad look on Marmot. There is nothing to lose for LM by voting Marmot and putting the wagons up to rand. Except in a world where it literally doesn't matter, since a wolf dies regardless and you might as well not vote.

Day 5 was really just a LM dunk in the making and I wouldn't clear anyone for voting there.

[Vulgard]

In a world where Marmot's V, the wolves piled mostly away from Marmot d3 for no reason, and d4 they failed to save Falcon by voting Marmot when they 100% could have.

[Scotty]

I mean I guess it could explain Daisy’s Un logical push on me.
But if Daisy is scum they are the most AtE Douche scum I’ve ever played with.

Like they appealed to emotion WAY too hard this game.

[Scotty]

Sigh

[Scotty]

My headspace isn’t large enough to get there today. I have a big project that’s come up suddenly so my time is going to be more limited than usual.

Gavial, why aren’t you voting your top scum read

[Scotty]

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

[Gavial]

Day 1, Daisy's on Seanzie, who flipped town.
Day 2, Daisy's on Made, who's a dead villager.
Day 3, Daisy's on Mogh, who flipped town.
Day 4. Admittedly, Daisy is on Falcon here, so my initial assertion was wrong. But she required some convincing to go there.
Day 5. Daisy is on Lost Monkey. But pretty much everyone is on Lost Monkey, so.

I'll admit my initial assertion of Daisy always voting villagers is wrong, but the other one still stands. "No alignment reads whatsoever" may be exaggerated but that is what I remember.

--

A world where Marmot's mafia.

Marmot being so eager to self-pres onto Falcon indicates he's a more important wolf PR than Falcon was (though the point about the razor passing on to the wolves is pretty important here). But in that case, he's been a wagon far too often. You could chalk it up to the wolves simply being potatoes incapable of shifting the wagons away from their member, and I might be able to believe that narrative. You could argue that Marmot surviving so many wagons is a testament to the fact wolves DID indeed try to save him.

D2 Marmot wagon: Kylemii, Made (V), Qwags (V).
D3 Marmot wagon: MR, Jack (V), Kylemii, TSP, Moghedien (V), Falcon (W), Nanook (dead V).
D4 Marmot wagon: Tim, LC, Made (V), Scotty.

Marmot has been voted at EoD by nearly every living player in this game. The exceptions are Gavial, DaisyCloud and myself. I have no idea how Gavial hasn't managed to vote Marmot at EoD while pushing the world that Marmot's mafia, but hey. As for me, I've made it clear that I thought Marmot was town. The third is Daisy.

If you'd like to extrapolate Marmot's partner from the votes (if Marmot's mafia), it would indeed be Daisy.

I didn’t scum read marmot until LM’s flip.

[Gavial]

Kyle was on the Falcon wagon d1, another good look for him.

Among the 9 Moghedien voters, two are confirmed mafia (Mac and LM). Others include Gavial, Marmot (self-pres), Scotty, Tim, Daisy.

Among the 7 Marmot voters, one is confirmed mafia (falcon) and the other is suspected mafia (MR). Others include Kyle and TSP (both very likely town).

If MR isn't mafia, then the Marmot wagon only had one wolf on it fmpov. On the contrary, the Moghedien wagon seems to have a bunch of them. We have two confirmed wolves on it and 5/9 of the voters still haven't flipped.

This points to Marmot being mafia with the wolves piling away from his wagon, unless MR is a wolf. And even then, you could argue that. The reason I asked about the vote order is because DaisyCloud and Mac's votes appear last on the Moghedien wagon. With Mac being a flipped wolf and Daisy being a suspected wolf, this looks like an evident save when viewed this way. This point is meaningless with the poll not showing votes in order, though.

LC voteparking on Gavial there actually makes me think he's 100% town if Marmot is mafia. But that's only if Marmot is mafia.

Day 4 wagon on Marmot looks remarkably pure. We have Tim (un CC'd vig), Made (flipped V), Scotty (likely V). The only two people I think could be wolves on the Falcon wagon (6 votes) are Marmot and DaisyCloud. Falcon and LM, both wolves, didn't even bother to vote Marmot to save their partner.

I think this might be telling. If wagons are W/W, it doesn't really matter to these two which wolf flips. Falcon not self-pressing is a bad look for Marmot and LM not voting to tie the wagons is yet another bad look on Marmot. There is nothing to lose for LM by voting Marmot and putting the wagons up to rand. Except in a world where it literally doesn't matter, since a wolf dies regardless and you might as well not vote.

Day 5 was really just a LM dunk in the making and I wouldn't clear anyone for voting there.

He vote parked on you I think but I could be wrong
But yeah I agree, that’s why I wanted Scotty off of LC because I know Marmot is mafia.
@Long Con

[Gavial]

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Maybe it is actually Daisy who is scum buddy with Marmot.
My bad Scotty.

[Gavial]

In a world where Marmot's V, the wolves piled mostly away from Marmot d3 for no reason, and d4 they failed to save Falcon by voting Marmot when they 100% could have.

Mhm.
It’s Marmot as I’ve BEEN SAYING.

[Scotty]

I don’t remember anything marmot has said this game. He mostly asks questions, and my memory of his reads were inconclusive. But he has so many posts. You’d think someone with that many posts would be a driving force of some kind.

I’ve said before, the only reason I’m not scum reading marmot is that he’s been such a viable train for so many days, how could mafia let that happen?
But Vulgard is right, maybe they have just been inept at NOT making that happen, and it is what it is

[Gavial]

I don’t remember anything marmot has said this game. He mostly asks questions, and my memory of his reads were inconclusive. But he has so many posts. You’d think someone with that many posts would be a driving force of some kind.

I’ve said before, the only reason I’m not scum reading marmot is that he’s been such a viable train for so many days, how could mafia let that happen?
But Vulgard is right, maybe they have just been inept at NOT making that happen, and it is what it is

As I said, they don’t seem to give that much of a care of each other.
As I said, during the night after LM’s flip after I was like “WHAT WTF!?!?” I re - evaluated and ended up with Mafia is playing oddly and more solo like so that’s why in conclusion Marmot as mafia made the most sense and thus their remaining buddy voted Mog Day 3.

[Gavial]

I won’t deny it though.
I thought Marmot was town all the way up until LM flipped scum.
Then I went a 180 read on Marmot from Town to Scum instantly!

[Vulgard]

I think MR could still be mafia but I'm convincing myself to vote Marmot instead.

Waiting for more people to pop in.

[Scotty]

I think MR could still be mafia but I'm convincing myself to vote Marmot instead.

Waiting for more people to pop in.

I currently think Mr is more mafia than you, if that rests your mind at ease.

Not that I see you jonesing

[Scotty]

If Daisy is mafia, she’s set up some damning parameters for future games- because she’s committed to the unbreakable vow that she would never bus a teammate as bad (which btw I think is a poor strategy long term, but sometimes you gotta hold your integrity where you hold it so I can’t fault her for having these principles).

If she does that this game, I dare say no one will ever take her seriously with future claims.

[Scotty]

Gavial make sure you say you vote marmot

[Scotty]

@Long Con @Timsup2nothin
What we doin boys

[Master Radishes]

Ugh I'm gonna flip and everyone will just say I didn't do enough and I'll know they're secretly right.

I can't give informed reads on anyone else really because I've been stuck in real life for like 48 hours but if anyone wants me to explain myself and my actions and whateveri can do that.

[Master Radishes]

Except only a little bit now because I'm on a phone and already made one typo and will be sure to make more.

In fact no one ask me anything for at least another hour.

[Master Radishes]

I'm a millennial by definition but I prefer a computer over a phone every day of the week.

[Long Con]

@Long Con @Timsup2nothin
What we doin boys

I will vote Radishes or Gavial, or even Kyle or Marmot if things swing one of those ways. I don't see myself voting Tim, Daisy, Tony, or Scotty. I am voting for Vulgard.

[Vulgard]

I'm a millennial by definition but I prefer a computer over a phone every day of the week.

ME.

[Timsup2nothin]

This is getting spooky. Is this actually happening? I feel like gavial is getting exactly what he wants and I have no earthly idea why he wants it and it scares me

Take him at his word. He may have a poor grasp of the math, but he is correct in the principles. If he represents town in any kind of LYLO or MYLO we probably lose. No way in hell are the wolves gonna kill him for us. So ultimately, yeah, we probably have to kill him.

I just wish he would find some way to flip that script, because even with the good run of red flips getting us back in this thing it is not like we have mischops available to just throw away.

Mischop Gavial and a night kill puts us at 5/2/1 day seven. Whether the mystery deaths are 3p or townvig I expect one N7, and that means with a miss and an NK if the vig/3P hits town and takes win and leaves we are at 2/2 and lose. So we have this chop, one more, and the vig/3P shot to hit a wolf. We are too late to be pissing away at Gavial.

Which word? He’s used them all at this point

And what kind of town strategy is this? Lynch him because it’s the right thing to do? It’s never the right thing to do and it’s idiotic.

As the prophet Troy once said:

That wasn't a strategy that was a complaint. I was agreeing with him that the way he is currently playing if we take him to end game town probably loses (our minds if nothing else). Then I pointed out that we also don't have available mischops to waste on killing him. Desired outcome: Gavial starts playing differently.

Actual outcome: Gavial starts threatening to draw a modkill.

I did my best. Now just moving on.

[Timsup2nothin]

Kyle was on the Falcon wagon d1, another good look for him.

Among the 9 Moghedien voters, two are confirmed mafia (Mac and LM). Others include Gavial, Marmot (self-pres), Scotty, Tim, Daisy.

Among the 7 Marmot voters, one is confirmed mafia (falcon) and the other is suspected mafia (MR). Others include Kyle and TSP (both very likely town).

If MR isn't mafia, then the Marmot wagon only had one wolf on it fmpov. On the contrary, the Moghedien wagon seems to have a bunch of them. We have two confirmed wolves on it and 5/9 of the voters still haven't flipped.

This points to Marmot being mafia with the wolves piling away from his wagon, unless MR is a wolf. And even then, you could argue that. The reason I asked about the vote order is because DaisyCloud and Mac's votes appear last on the Moghedien wagon. With Mac being a flipped wolf and Daisy being a suspected wolf, this looks like an evident save when viewed this way. This point is meaningless with the poll not showing votes in order, though.

LC voteparking on Gavial there actually makes me think he's 100% town if Marmot is mafia. But that's only if Marmot is mafia.

Day 4 wagon on Marmot looks remarkably pure. We have Tim (un CC'd vig), Made (flipped V), Scotty (likely V). The only two people I think could be wolves on the Falcon wagon (6 votes) are Marmot and DaisyCloud. Falcon and LM, both wolves, didn't even bother to vote Marmot to save their partner.

I think this might be telling. If wagons are W/W, it doesn't really matter to these two which wolf flips. Falcon not self-pressing is a bad look for Marmot and LM not voting to tie the wagons is yet another bad look on Marmot. There is nothing to lose for LM by voting Marmot and putting the wagons up to rand. Except in a world where it literally doesn't matter, since a wolf dies regardless and you might as well not vote.

Day 5 was really just a LM dunk in the making and I wouldn't clear anyone for voting there.

This is a very important post.

[Timsup2nothin]

@Long Con @Timsup2nothin
What we doin boys

I am sheeping my town reads...I just haven't decided which one.

[Scotty]

@Long Con @Timsup2nothin
What we doin boys

I will vote Radishes or Gavial, or even Kyle or Marmot if things swing one of those ways. I don't see myself voting Tim, Daisy, Tony, or Scotty. I am voting for Vulgard.

She will you know if things are swinging a particular way?

I tarzan’d on the Marmot vine- I can pass it back your way so you can take that vine too. Or you can sit on the Vulgard tree. I’m flexible, just want my orders

[Scotty]

@Long Con @Timsup2nothin
What we doin boys

I will vote Radishes or Gavial, or even Kyle or Marmot if things swing one of those ways. I don't see myself voting Tim, Daisy, Tony, or Scotty. I am voting for Vulgard.

She will you know if things are swinging a particular way?

I tarzan’d on the Marmot vine- I can pass it back your way so you can take that vine too. Or you can sit on the Vulgard tree. I’m flexible, just want my orders

She= how

[Scotty]

Kyle was on the Falcon wagon d1, another good look for him.

Among the 9 Moghedien voters, two are confirmed mafia (Mac and LM). Others include Gavial, Marmot (self-pres), Scotty, Tim, Daisy.

Among the 7 Marmot voters, one is confirmed mafia (falcon) and the other is suspected mafia (MR). Others include Kyle and TSP (both very likely town).

If MR isn't mafia, then the Marmot wagon only had one wolf on it fmpov. On the contrary, the Moghedien wagon seems to have a bunch of them. We have two confirmed wolves on it and 5/9 of the voters still haven't flipped.

This points to Marmot being mafia with the wolves piling away from his wagon, unless MR is a wolf. And even then, you could argue that. The reason I asked about the vote order is because DaisyCloud and Mac's votes appear last on the Moghedien wagon. With Mac being a flipped wolf and Daisy being a suspected wolf, this looks like an evident save when viewed this way. This point is meaningless with the poll not showing votes in order, though.

LC voteparking on Gavial there actually makes me think he's 100% town if Marmot is mafia. But that's only if Marmot is mafia.

Day 4 wagon on Marmot looks remarkably pure. We have Tim (un CC'd vig), Made (flipped V), Scotty (likely V). The only two people I think could be wolves on the Falcon wagon (6 votes) are Marmot and DaisyCloud. Falcon and LM, both wolves, didn't even bother to vote Marmot to save their partner.

I think this might be telling. If wagons are W/W, it doesn't really matter to these two which wolf flips. Falcon not self-pressing is a bad look for Marmot and LM not voting to tie the wagons is yet another bad look on Marmot. There is nothing to lose for LM by voting Marmot and putting the wagons up to rand. Except in a world where it literally doesn't matter, since a wolf dies regardless and you might as well not vote.

Day 5 was really just a LM dunk in the making and I wouldn't clear anyone for voting there.

This is a very important post.

Got me to switch tbh

[Scotty]

Granted MR could still be bad, since all we know is that he’s claimed he strong armed your power last night.

Which, like, is already questionable, since what we know with your power is that you do things sporadically if you can afford them.

Ugh

[Timsup2nothin]

Kyle was on the Falcon wagon d1, another good look for him.

Among the 9 Moghedien voters, two are confirmed mafia (Mac and LM). Others include Gavial, Marmot (self-pres), Scotty, Tim, Daisy.

Among the 7 Marmot voters, one is confirmed mafia (falcon) and the other is suspected mafia (MR). Others include Kyle and TSP (both very likely town).

If MR isn't mafia, then the Marmot wagon only had one wolf on it fmpov. On the contrary, the Moghedien wagon seems to have a bunch of them. We have two confirmed wolves on it and 5/9 of the voters still haven't flipped.

This points to Marmot being mafia with the wolves piling away from his wagon, unless MR is a wolf. And even then, you could argue that. The reason I asked about the vote order is because DaisyCloud and Mac's votes appear last on the Moghedien wagon. With Mac being a flipped wolf and Daisy being a suspected wolf, this looks like an evident save when viewed this way. This point is meaningless with the poll not showing votes in order, though.

LC voteparking on Gavial there actually makes me think he's 100% town if Marmot is mafia. But that's only if Marmot is mafia.

Day 4 wagon on Marmot looks remarkably pure. We have Tim (un CC'd vig), Made (flipped V), Scotty (likely V). The only two people I think could be wolves on the Falcon wagon (6 votes) are Marmot and DaisyCloud. Falcon and LM, both wolves, didn't even bother to vote Marmot to save their partner.

I think this might be telling. If wagons are W/W, it doesn't really matter to these two which wolf flips. Falcon not self-pressing is a bad look for Marmot and LM not voting to tie the wagons is yet another bad look on Marmot. There is nothing to lose for LM by voting Marmot and putting the wagons up to rand. Except in a world where it literally doesn't matter, since a wolf dies regardless and you might as well not vote.

Day 5 was really just a LM dunk in the making and I wouldn't clear anyone for voting there.

This is a very important post.

Got me to switch tbh

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Id Marmot flips town I am liable to turbo Vulgard, just so everyone understands the situation here.

[Vulgard]

Assuming my Marmot analysis is correct then Daisy is the most likely partner.

[Vulgard]

By association. If it's not Daisy then it's MR. I think LC is very unlikely to be a wolf in a world with Marmot mafia, though he could be 3p.

[Master Radishes]

Granted MR could still be bad, since all we know is that he’s claimed he strong armed your power last night.

Which, like, is already questionable, since what we know with your power is that you do things sporadically if you can afford them.

Ugh

Tbh I don't even fully know Tim's role. I could strong arm someone, visit chaos, or some other useless thing where like I reset people's actions if they visit the same shrine as me. I just picked the most useful sounding one and chose the person who was consensus town even though it wasn't me consensus.

[Master Radishes]

In my experience, if someone is wagoned multiple days but never quite goes over but also is never mech cleared, they tend to be a wolf.

But that's context depending and I don't know the context of Marmot wagons prior to my entrance.

I do sorta feel Marmot would, iunno, do more as scum. But what do I know I took an arrow to the knee.

[Scotty]

In my experience, if someone is wagoned multiple days but never quite goes over but also is never mech cleared, they tend to be a wolf.

But that's context depending and I don't know the context of Marmot wagons prior to my entrance.

I do sorta feel Marmot would, iunno, do more as scum. But what do I know I took an arrow to the knee.

I feel like I’ve played equal games with marmot as scum and town, and can never tell the difference. He has said this game that when he rolls scum he tends to have more fun, but I feel like his detachment from this game is NAI because he’s also hosting a game.

[Scotty]

Granted MR could still be bad, since all we know is that he’s claimed he strong armed your power last night.

Which, like, is already questionable, since what we know with your power is that you do things sporadically if you can afford them.

Ugh

Tbh I don't even fully know Tim's role. I could strong arm someone, visit chaos, or some other useless thing where like I reset people's actions if they visit the same shrine as me. I just picked the most useful sounding one and chose the person who was consensus town even though it wasn't me consensus.

You only have 3 actions available today? Dubious, but ok

[Long Con]

@Long Con @Timsup2nothin
What we doin boys

I will vote Radishes or Gavial, or even Kyle or Marmot if things swing one of those ways. I don't see myself voting Tim, Daisy, Tony, or Scotty. I am voting for Vulgard.

She will you know if things are swinging a particular way?

I tarzan’d on the Marmot vine- I can pass it back your way so you can take that vine too. Or you can sit on the Vulgard tree. I’m flexible, just want my orders

I can handle the Marmot vote. His signature, if nothing else, practically forces the issue, in that we can't risk it happening while he boasts it in our faces. [VOTE: marmot] aubergine

[Scotty]

Also knowing that mafia still have the volendrung between the 2 of them...I would assume they wouldn’t want to keep the votes close so as to expose themselves. Though I’m looking at the wording for the razor and it says

Artifacts possessed by the Mafia team may be accessed by any member of the team during any phase. However, no player may access multiple Artifact abilities at the same time, and no Artifact may be accessed by multiple players at the same time

Which leads me to believe that we won’t destroy these until the last mafia is killed

[Scotty]

@Master Radishes why haven’t you voted yet?

[Scotty]

Do we think mafia have to declare if they want to use the volendrung that phase by a particular player? I’m confused how that is supposed to work

[Master Radishes]

Granted MR could still be bad, since all we know is that he’s claimed he strong armed your power last night.

Which, like, is already questionable, since what we know with your power is that you do things sporadically if you can afford them.

Ugh

Tbh I don't even fully know Tim's role. I could strong arm someone, visit chaos, or some other useless thing where like I reset people's actions if they visit the same shrine as me. I just picked the most useful sounding one and chose the person who was consensus town even though it wasn't me consensus.

You only have 3 actions available today? Dubious, but ok

I have five shrines I can access but have to wait three rounds once used so only three at a time, yeah.

[Master Radishes]

@Master Radishes why haven’t you voted yet?

Ah yes clearly after all my analysis this phase I know exactly what to do.