PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[sunbae]

Currently thinking to myself "this is one of those situations where you're just getting into a pointless argument and everyone is just scrolling through it cause its boring and pointless isn't it"

[sunbae]

[VOTE: dyachei] aubergine

[outed wolf]

[VOTE: dyachei] aubergine

[staypositivefriend]

Like I read that guide and now I just wanna tunnel you into oblivion

if you're serious about your push, then it would be genuinely helpful if you could go back to the posts that pinged you and explain why you find them wolfy in detail

because i looked at your evaluation of my guide and i don't really have anything to say that i haven't already said. i don't understand the issue. there's a misunderstanding here somewhere. a fairly large part of my (partial) townread on tangy was predicated on the idea that she had no interest in "blending in" with the vibe of the thread. it was proven to me that she did try to blend in with the thread. i said "oh okay, maybe i'm townreading her too easily", and then moved her back to a townlean

I feel like I've done as well as I can in doing that

I'm sorry, I'm just not really good at articulating things sometimes. I viewed your posts as "Here are three good reasons to townread Tangrowth (Lack of Agenda, Nutella read, Positivity/Tone), one smaller reason to townread Tangrowth (Changing thread atmosphere), and one counterargument to C4's wolf read (Not Blending in like C4 claimed). Then C4 showed you that the counterargument didn't hold up. The result from my pov was "ok, she's still got three good reasons to town read and one smaller reason as well, shouldn't change much" but you instead started talking about clearing too lightly which seemed like a huge walk back to me.

Then in your self-made guide it mentioned that as a wolf you just try to brush off wolf reads whereas when you're town you engage people to try and work it out and I felt there was zero attempt to see things with me and work it out. So I mentioned tunneling.

I believed that is the best breakdown I can do of my current thoughts on it. Did that get more understandable?

yeah, it does, thanks. it seems like the main contention here is how much of my townread on tangy was predicated on the stuff that arete corrected, right? (i think that you're mixing up arete/c4. it was arete that originally disagreed with me, iirc)

so, let's go back to the source. here are the two posts that i made about my read on tang:

I think nutella is town and the wolves are trying to shove through a cheap misexe on someone who is normally difficult to misexe.

This points towards mafia on her wagon, which is to say sunbae/bronana/outed wolf. Probably bronana for overexplaining his vote and trying to pocket the other two by saying they're the pillars of the town.

i don’t really understand this read. why are you assuming that nutella is getting pushed by wolves as opposed to villagers who are wrong and/or don’t know her well? what specifically about the pushes is wolfy? i feel like i can see where zack and spf are coming from even though i disagree

also just for the record I moved my vote off Hally but I still think their opener sucked a lot

why?

—————

i had similar thoughts to arete as i was reading tangy’s catchup but decided to withhold judgment and observe her more. not sure where i’m at on her atm. @staypositivefriend why did you like tangy’s posts?

tangygrowth burst into a relatively tense thread and immediately became a beacon of positive energy. her primary concern wasn't to ~blend in~ or spew out a bunch of takes, but rather, to change the atmosphere of the thread and to make sure that everyone was still having fun. even as she was doing that, she zero'd in on nutella for a little while and made a point of outing a read on her (which i found villagery, or at least indicative of tangy trying to gradually get more comfortable with the game by focusing on someone that she already knows)

the strong tone paired with the lack of posts that felt focused on an agenda made me think that she was most likely just a villager. typical caveat that this read will change if tangy's trajectory doesn't go where i anticipate it will go

her primary concern wasn't to ~blend in~ or spew out a bunch of takes

can you elaborate on this take? I agree with the second half but strongly disagree with the first half.

when i think of a wolf that is trying to "blend in" with a thread, i think of someone that's trying to match the vibe or the overall atmosphere of the thread they're in. a wolf in RVS will often be performatively casual/jokey because it's what they perceive as "normal" behavior. a wolf right outside of RVS will often force themselves to take stances or out reads because it's what they feel they "should" do. there are a lot of talented wolves that win games by mirroring other people and doing all the "right" things at the "right" moments

i think it's fair to say that tangy's posts up until the ones at the top of page 4 were "blending in" (i forgot she made any posts before that point TBQH), so that lends credibility to your point and diminishes mine a little bit

but i was specifically thinking about tangy's string of posts at the top of page 4 - she entered a thread that was in the middle of some pretty intense/divisive conversation, and there were a lot of reads/stances being thrown out. tangy's posts around that time were extremely casual and extremely relaxed - she expressed happiness at being in the game, she asked a few softball questions about my meta (among other things), but her commentary of the game itself was minimal and she seemed disinterested in giving her takes on the stuff that was going on, barring her read on nutella. her posts were casual in nature, but they were distinct from the vibe in the rest of the thread that is fairly unusual for wolves who are trying to dip their toes into the thread

kinda thinking that i'm clearing tangy too easily after writing this out tbh, but i do think that she's rand town so far

looking at both of these posts, how much would you say that the concept of: "Tangy is not trying to blend in with the atmosphere of the thread" is reflected in the way i talk about my read on tangy? the answer is quite a lot.

the wording of my initial post frames tangy's posts on page 4 like they were her first posts in the game - and this was a fairly major component to my line of reasoning in general. the read is: "tangy entered the thread without caring about vibing with other people"

so, when arete said that they strongly disagreed with me, it prompted me to take another look at tangy's ISO, and i realized that she did, in fact, make several posts before the posts that i thought were her first posts in the game. and those posts were undeniably an attempt to "blend in" and an attempt to get comfortable in the thread

while it's true that i still had reasons to townread tangy, the strength of "lack of agenda/tone" was amplified by the assumption that the posts that i liked from tangy were her very first posts in the game. the read felt less impactful to me when i realized that they weren't

i hope that clears things up a little bit

[bronana]

that feel when the game starts to feel like a bunch of nebulous words and it’s only halfway through d1



(my eyes just glazed over reading the sunbae/spf back and forth, sorry)

DIE LISSA DIE

the lissa, the?

re: amy - her posts and thoughts early seemed to come from a genuine place. idk, i've cooled off on this a bit since then

[bronana]

why is arete town?

I just get the sense they're the reasonable sounding wolf who is not actually that villagy once you step back and think about it

[outed wolf]

thoughts on gavial, zack?

[bronana]

thoughts on gavial, zack?

not much else to say than what i have already

their posts are bad and very different from my experience with them as town

[sunbae]

alrighty, I think I can just say "hey, this is a miscommunication and a bad reason for a read regardless of if its right or not" and just move on and tell the thread my bad

[Tangrowth]

why is arete town?

I just get the sense they're the reasonable sounding wolf who is not actually that villagy once you step back and think about it

I agree totally.

[Tangrowth]

Also, I love that the back and forth between sunbae and spf was about me.

As for how I feel about each of them as a result, I think it was actually helpful for getting me somewhere on sunbae, as I got to witness his gears turning in real time. I'm not sure it moved me much on spf but she was already a light town read.

[Amy]

also can yall pls give your opinion on amy once this conversation has run its course

please and thank u

v with reservations

[outed wolf]

oh sunbae i meant to ask

what do you think of people v reading you for that soul read post you made earlier

seemed to me like its something you would easily be able to say as a wolf to pander to me so i was surprised to see people village reading it as if you couldnt come up with that as a wolf

[staypositivefriend]

i think that sunbae is a villager

[Amy]

my urge to kill dyachei grows steadily

[sunbae]

oh sunbae i meant to ask

what do you think of people v reading you for that soul read post you made earlier

seemed to me like its something you would easily be able to say as a wolf to pander to me so i was surprised to see people village reading it as if you couldnt come up with that as a wolf

i have no thoughts on it, sorry
i factored it in zero percent and iirc the people the did it have little to no experience with me
itd make me skeptical if like, you or zack read me v for it

[Tangrowth]

my urge to kill dyachei grows steadily

Is it the lack of things or something that they said recently?

[sunbae]

i think that sunbae is a villager

one day ima play a game and get villager reads for my awesome thoughts and sick reads instead of being a chaotic mess thats just villagery

[Tangrowth]

i think that sunbae is a villager

one day ima play a game and get villager reads for my awesome thoughts and sick reads instead of being a chaotic mess thats just villagery

omg mood.

[Tangrowth]

Okay sunbae can be a top read.

[Amy]

wolves are in gavial/dya/hally/arete/alison/kza??? with a side helping of "i haven't done due diligence on visor yet"

marl could also be a wolf but i lean v for now

nobody else activates my fight or flight when i call them town so

[nutella]

wolves are in gavial/dya/hally/arete/alison/kza??? with a side helping of "i haven't done due diligence on visor yet"

marl could also be a wolf but i lean v for now

nobody else activates my fight or flight when i call them town so

this list sounds about right yeah

i'm coming out of the spf/sunbae thing townreading both of them

[staypositivefriend]

Some thoughts:

I think it's weird sunbae kind of put me in the category of not having fun because I was? I mean, I joined this game to chill with friends and that's what I was doing until my playstyle was attacked. ngl that put me in a bit of a mood but I was relaxed and joking around before that. so it's really weird to me it didn't come across that way. in the org game I really didn't want to be there at all (wolfing against zack and visor and amy and sunbae is intimidating af) but I'm excited to play this game

Alison's post wasn't super great - where she basically accused people of trying to get an easy mis-elim on nutella. Not necessarily because it's within the first 3 hours, but because it feels like TMI on nut. But lets say I'm wrong there...she still left the thread shortly after with no other insight. The alison i know usually has other thoughts on the game.

I think tangy felt pure to me (and yes, hi, tangy. I don't think we've played together before). Not willing to lock her in or anything because ffs it's early d1 but probably against voting there today.

I kind of like amy's approach to the game so far, too. Just feels like she's actually trying to discern alignments.

since we're on the topic of dyachei, this is the only post from dyachei's ISO that i would describe as legitimately "wolfy" or suspicious

it's primarily because the logic that dyachei uses here feels like the type of logic that any wolf on autopilot would be able to easily say. dyachei townreads tangy because they feel "pure", they feel like amy is "trying to discern alignments", and their observation about alison is an observation that had (iirc) been pointed out a couple of times already by other players

all of these reads feasibly can come from a villager, but there is nothing in this post that indicates to me that dyachei is in the active process of evaluation, and the lack of takes that make me go "oh, that's insightful!" or "oh, i can understand where that comes from" could be indicative of a world where dyachei is just a wolf

the rest of their posts are fine, though. i feel like their alignment will become a lot more obvious as the game goes on

[Amy]

my urge to kill dyachei grows steadily

Is it the lack of things or something that they said recently?

dya's recent absence is understandable given their schedule, i don't really care about that

but i've read over their initial postings a couple of times and every question they ask someone else feels suuuuper fake to me

like, i've been in dya's hydra chat, i know how they think, i know how they like to prod at stuff. there's a natural inquisitiveness and a desire for elaboration that i'm not seeing beyond the barest surface level here.

and i kinda don't buy that they have NO thoughts on hally, though in fairness that could be for activity reasons

[Amy]

i actually have a harebrained theory that gavial flipping w makes alison much less likely to be wolfing

not elaborating rn, ask me again later

[bronana]

wolves are in gavial/dya/hally/arete/alison/kza??? with a side helping of "i haven't done due diligence on visor yet"

marl could also be a wolf but i lean v for now

nobody else activates my fight or flight when i call them town so

possibly

seems a bit too straightforward "yes the wolves are the underwhelming people not posting much" though, I'd wager the actual team is more complex than that

fine as a place to start for day 1/2 though

[sunbae]

i got 35 posts after this one so ima bail for the night
i think ive flooded this game with enough of my nonsense for one day

yall have fun

im gonna unvote dyachei and hope that by the time im here tomorrow i can have a better read and dont want her coming into the thread on the defensive or anything

i think arette/c4/hally are the blind spots for me that i should have better thoughts on by now so hit me with those if you got em



[VOTE: sleep] aubergine

[nutella]

Some thoughts:

I think it's weird sunbae kind of put me in the category of not having fun because I was? I mean, I joined this game to chill with friends and that's what I was doing until my playstyle was attacked. ngl that put me in a bit of a mood but I was relaxed and joking around before that. so it's really weird to me it didn't come across that way. in the org game I really didn't want to be there at all (wolfing against zack and visor and amy and sunbae is intimidating af) but I'm excited to play this game

Alison's post wasn't super great - where she basically accused people of trying to get an easy mis-elim on nutella. Not necessarily because it's within the first 3 hours, but because it feels like TMI on nut. But lets say I'm wrong there...she still left the thread shortly after with no other insight. The alison i know usually has other thoughts on the game.

I think tangy felt pure to me (and yes, hi, tangy. I don't think we've played together before). Not willing to lock her in or anything because ffs it's early d1 but probably against voting there today.

I kind of like amy's approach to the game so far, too. Just feels like she's actually trying to discern alignments.

since we're on the topic of dyachei, this is the only post from dyachei's ISO that i would describe as legitimately "wolfy" or suspicious

it's primarily because the logic that dyachei uses here feels like the type of logic that any wolf on autopilot would be able to easily say. dyachei townreads tangy because they feel "pure", they feel like amy is "trying to discern alignments", and their observation about alison is an observation that had (iirc) been pointed out a couple of times already by other players

all of these reads feasibly can come from a villager, but there is nothing in this post that indicates to me that dyachei is in the active process of evaluation, and the lack of takes that make me go "oh, that's insightful!" or "oh, i can understand where that comes from" could be indicative of a world where dyachei is just a wolf

the rest of their posts are fine, though. i feel like their alignment will become a lot more obvious as the game goes on

my urge to kill dyachei grows steadily

Is it the lack of things or something that they said recently?

dya's recent absence is understandable given their schedule, i don't really care about that

but i've read over their initial postings a couple of times and every question they ask someone else feels suuuuper fake to me

like, i've been in dya's hydra chat, i know how they think, i know how they like to prod at stuff. there's a natural inquisitiveness and a desire for elaboration that i'm not seeing beyond the barest surface level here.

and i kinda don't buy that they have NO thoughts on hally, though in fairness that could be for activity reasons

++++++

[Amy]

wolves are in gavial/dya/hally/arete/alison/kza??? with a side helping of "i haven't done due diligence on visor yet"

marl could also be a wolf but i lean v for now

nobody else activates my fight or flight when i call them town so

possibly

seems a bit too straightforward "yes the wolves are the underwhelming people not posting much" though, I'd wager the actual team is more complex than that

fine as a place to start for day 1/2 though

i mean yes you're right that the names i listed are underwhelming and the names i didn't list aren't, and that does have shades of "too easy"

but i'd rather start in the easy world and run off on a snipe hunt later than do it the other way around, yknow?

gun to head if i were to pick people outside that pool who i haven't quite done diligence on and thus could be fooling me it's probably like. c4 mp7 you

[Tangrowth]

Makes sense, thanks Amy, I'll take that under consideration. I really need to pull myself away from the thread now ahhhhh. I guess it leaves me with... 43 posts? Okay, that leaves me 1 post to say something of importance while multitasking heavily if inclined, so then I can have 42 for my more attentive stages of the game tonight and/or tomorrow morning.

[nutella]

[VOTE: dya] aubergine

[bronana]

wolves are in gavial/dya/hally/arete/alison/kza??? with a side helping of "i haven't done due diligence on visor yet"

marl could also be a wolf but i lean v for now

nobody else activates my fight or flight when i call them town so

possibly

seems a bit too straightforward "yes the wolves are the underwhelming people not posting much" though, I'd wager the actual team is more complex than that

fine as a place to start for day 1/2 though

i mean yes you're right that the names i listed are underwhelming and the names i didn't list aren't, and that does have shades of "too easy"

but i'd rather start in the easy world and run off on a snipe hunt later than do it the other way around, yknow?

gun to head if i were to pick people outside that pool who i haven't quite done diligence on and thus could be fooling me it's probably like. c4 mp7 you

a fine three names for you to bring up, i am somewhat surprised i've gotten such little heat

[Hally]

@Hally Make a read on me, do it for science!

What’s your cases on me?
@Hally
@staypositivefriend

you seem like a wolf

Wait lol, Hally and SPF are voting what used to be a 4 post Gavial. LOL

@Hally @staypositivefriend I'm going to crush your dreams if any or both of you are mafia and I get to ever read this game. Terrible votes!

i’m pretty happy with my vote, actually

[staypositivefriend]

what do your reads generally look like rn, zack?

[dyachei]

I've been trying to catch up for the better part of an hour. I see I'm getting d1 heat again. As I always do. Because people always forget my d1s tend to suck

I like that sunbae went right to spf's how to read her guide and compared. I think that he might have been a little biased when he looked at it thoguh

I have a gut feeling about alison's alignment. I didn't like her one post but I also don't like that she hasn't come back and tried to solve the game yet

@outed wolf I gave my thoughts on amy but feels like my thoughts count for jack shit as usual

[dyachei]

outed wolf what reads do you have other than me?

[Tangrowth]

dya, you matter. <3

(I determined that this is the best use of my last meaningful post for now)

[bronana]

what do your reads generally look like rn, zack?

bronana
bronana


prob town, wouldn't touch today
nutella
vulgard


slight town i guess
amy
outed wolf
spf - considered putting you in the tier beneath this one tho
sunbae


i'm not super thrilled with them, but grouping them in the tier below felt intensely wrong
dyslexicon
tangrowth


nullish / meh
alison
c4
hally
marl


nullish / meh with feeling
arete
kza


wolfy
dya
gavial

[dyachei]

it's super frustrating to finally rand town in a game with visor and zack and have them not even explain their shitty reads on me

[bronana]

it's super frustrating to finally rand town in a game with visor and zack and have them not even explain their shitty reads on me

there's not much to say and i don't want to get into a fight about it, you just don't seem like town dya so far I doubt you will go down today while Gav exists, if you're town I should get there in time.

what are your three strongest reads in either direction?

[Dyslexicon]

@Hally Make a read on me, do it for science!

What’s your cases on me?
@Hally
@staypositivefriend

you seem like a wolf

Wait lol, Hally and SPF are voting what used to be a 4 post Gavial. LOL

@Hally @staypositivefriend I'm going to crush your dreams if any or both of you are mafia and I get to ever read this game. Terrible votes!

i’m pretty happy with my vote, actually

>> rand scum

[Hally]

Arete, Hally, and Gavial all currently have votes of those in my POE. I'll vote Hally.

[VOTE: Hally] aubergine

how’d you go from saying i was the person in your PoE you felt best about to voting me? did i misunderstand something?

[dyachei]

it's super frustrating to finally rand town in a game with visor and zack and have them not even explain their shitty reads on me

there's not much to say and i don't want to get into a fight about it, you just don't seem like town dya so far I doubt you will go down today while Gav exists, if you're town I should get there in time.

what are your three strongest reads in either direction?

alison most wolfy - have talked about her

towniest is probably tangy. I had them as sort of towny before but I liked their wall, too. I just think there was a lot of detail in there that wouldn't be if he were a wolf?

[c4e5g3d5]

Plus any random grouping of five players has approximately a 75% chance of having at least one wolf, if my math is right.

Spoiler: show

1 - (13 / 17)^5 = 73.85% of at least one wolf

if you want to assume "I am town and I am not one of those five players" = 1 - (12 / 16)^5 = 76.3% of at least one wolf

There are some underlying assumptions about votes on a wagon being independent events which isn't really true, but whatever, close enough. Been awhile since I took any stats or probability courses though. Yes this a useless post a wolf could easily make, sue me.

Just gotta pop in with even more wolfy IIOA to say that players' alignments aren't independent so it would actually be

1- (13/17) * (12/16) * (11/15) * (10/14) * (9/13) = 56.1%

Since spf posted her own spf reading guide, here's my less boring spf reading guide from the same game. Spoiler alert, it worked.

[Dyslexicon]

@dyachei What is your read on me?

Can you talk about how Alison is your top scum read when she has only 7 posts in the game? I'm not saying it's wrong, and I you probably have talked a lot about it, but if you would restate, I'd appreciate. I did read Alison's ISO btw.

[bronana]

it's super frustrating to finally rand town in a game with visor and zack and have them not even explain their shitty reads on me

there's not much to say and i don't want to get into a fight about it, you just don't seem like town dya so far I doubt you will go down today while Gav exists, if you're town I should get there in time.

what are your three strongest reads in either direction?

alison most wolfy - have talked about her

towniest is probably tangy. I had them as sort of towny before but I liked their wall, too. I just think there was a lot of detail in there that wouldn't be if he were a wolf?

I didn't care for alison's posts either, but I know from past experience with her as v/v (admittedly small sample) that I find a non-trivial part of her approach to the game somewhat alien. She's also barely posted and it was all on page 1/2 iirc, hoping to get a better handle on her when she returns.

interesting, I did like tangy's wall and possibly am being unfair with her. lol maybe i'm just used to getting an extensive sampling of 500 posts where i can immerse myself in her mindset and see the villagy POV

any thoughts on amy, nutella, or gavial?

[dyachei]

I'm perhaps not going to come close to matching a fair portion of this playlist through sheer reads and/or solving methods. That's not really my strength, especially this early on, and even more so with people I don't know and entering a tense environment with an intimidating playerlist that I felt and feel more so on the outer edges of for the most part. I understand why people are explaining pleasantries as things I do, and I appreciate the kind thoughts that underlie such an association, so thanks, really. It is very important to me that people are having fun, particularly with such an enamored group of players, but I do think I may have been less concerned about the discordance in such a way that it would be easier to find my footing if I had TMI right now, even if I'd still try to put everyone at more ease publicly. As it stands... I just sort of feel like I'm dipping my toes in the pool, trying to get a feel for things, and if that means people are going to be hesitant to town read me because I'm hurling softballs or whatever, that's fine I guess, but I just don't feel like waiting for me to produce is a good way to find me as town. I guess I don't know where I fit in with this town at all yet, and that's not a comforting spot to be in... I like feeling like I have a specific purpose. I realize someone could just say well, make reads, do your own thing, but I am not going to force reads that I don't have (hence the questions), and I don't function well in a corner. I'm not expecting anyone to help me with that, it's my place to try to optimize how I can help win us this game, just musing aloud about it. I'm probably >rand in terms of being a self-oriented person, and I'll try to keep such perspective to a minimum and let you all figure me out or find me however you'd like, but I have a direct responsibility to make myself easier to find from my end too, and I wanted these things said nonetheless because I feel like at least some players will struggle to find me based on what's been said already. Anyway, without further ado, a reads list.

Strong town
Dizzy - As the player I know the second best out of everyone here, it's natural that I have thoughts here. Dizzy could do anything as scum, I'm convinced, and he could do anything as any alignment to some extent, lol. Wide range is accurate. He's fooled me embarrassingly before, but I don't know, I think the universe in which Dizzy assessed his place in this game with a town role card better matches his behavior thus far than if he were scum. This is mostly driven by a self-centered read actually, so I suppose while it's close to strong now it could also be the most subject to volatility with additional factors, but he and I have a long-standing joke about how we never role the same alignment (I swear it's true though), and I was anxiously awaiting how he would interact with me with an entrance here. I think the way he played to me here reads pretty genuine. The way he played to the thread is worthy of a light town read (update: with his recent posting, I probably feel even better about this particular assessment, he seems carefree). I also think this re: Gavial seems unnecessary if he's scum. I'm not worried about Dizzy right now, even if I maybe should be.
nutella - I wouldn't say nutella has an "easy" meta by any means because I think that's disrespectful to her abilities to play a variety of approaches as a seasoned vet, but she does have a tendency to just scream I'M A VILLAGER to me emotionally (and apparently to others whether through emotions and/or her methodology) when she actually is, and it's understandable that she has a hard time matching that as scum fairly often. To say the least, town nutella, that's what I'm seeing here. She is just oozing genuine emotion about the game, her position, I already thought she was seeming town given the "situation" earlier, but ever since then a lot of her posts have spoken to me. I can try to elaborate upon this when I have more time if it's warranted, but yeah, I'll just play the "I've known nutella for over 10 years and I trust myself enough at this point to be able to read her" card whenever I do feel strongly about her alignment, and that is the case right now (insert disclaimer about reassessment). Please do not yeet her.

Moderate town
Vulgard - This is the solving that just seems... very natural to me. I guess I'm not the only one, so I'm probably sheeping that to some extent too, to what degree I'm not sure. I agree with him about Arete seeming cautious, and I share some of the same concerns (Hally) and I think the recent approach towards spf seemed >rand hard to fake. I also like the lines of questioning, like here. Sort of a no-brainer town read, but not willing to put him up in strong yet.
Zack (bronana) - Zack seems fine, I need to interact with him to better sort him, but I skim through his ISO and it seems believable enough as solving (and shitposting), but this is my favorite Zack post for sure, it just smells like the town Zack indignation I'd expect. I suppose it helps that I don't currently have a town read on c4 myself. I don't sense an agenda in Zack's posts.

Light town
Alison - This is an incredibly light read, but between Alison's declaration of no reads and the way came to the discussed suspicion here are believable as genuine town Alison thoughts. I think she may feel more pressure to tryhard if she were scum. However, she also can and will throw out town reads like they're candy and come to some unique perspectives when she's town from what I've seen, so I don't want to unfairly hold her to a standard, but I am sort of checking my watch waiting for her to get truly invested to assess a better read.
dya - I read their frustration as genuine even if I'm not sure if it's really alignment indicative at all. Beyond that, I see enough "poke" statements for lack of a better term that I like that GTH I'd sort them as town.
spf - Lots of genuine gear turning and poking and pushing the thread, and based on what has been said about her (more "words" as scum), this seems to align more with a theory of town spf.
Visor (outed wolf) - As much as I've interacted with Visor from time to time, have we actually played together? I can't remember. Anyway, Visor seems legit. This is probably the most reliant on soul read of my light towns.

POE
Amy - Amy's doing things and I feel this placement is sort of unfair to her, but I'm just not getting there on her at all yet, and that's probably a me problem, and I'd like to bridge the gap. Her tone is fine, she has made some efforts to solve, I just don't see them as genuine or anything yet and I can't place her emotions anywhere. I'm still sort of clueless as to why she's getting townread. She has 35 posts and I can't really tell anything AI at all in them personally, and that's a bit concerning.
Arete - I don't know whether I buy Arete's push on me or not still, something isn't squaring with me about it and I'm not sure how to clarify. The policy push on Dizzy is just bad at face value, but I'm not sure whether it makes them wolfy.
c4 - I think I can get somewhere to find c4, but as of now nothing. The reads list is somewhat opposed to mine, I'd like to try and figure out and reconcile some differences of opinion.
Gavial - Yikes, this ISO is a nothingburger. An easy d1 yeet candidate. I just don't think alignment can be assessed unless Gavial (Seth?) steps up his game. I also defer somewhat to you who know him better.
Hally - I'm sad to report this, but I'm not feeling Hally yet and I really need to talk to them. I appreciated their explanation of Arete's push of me but I'm having trouble seeing eye to eye with them about that. We agree about nutella and Vulgard, but I'm not really sure how Hally reached those conclusions enough to make a determination. I might GTH them town so they're probably the person in my POE I least want to vote out right now, but I still couldn't place them in the above category.
KZA - I'm not sure what to do with this ISO at this time. Help.
Marluxion - I'm not sure what to do with this ISO at this time. Help.
sunbae - This is the battle of my brain and my heart... for sunbae. My brain says sure, he's town, but my heart says no (and whacks the town read away), so I guess he drops to here? I'm not sure where to place him, maybe he needs his own "sunbae???" category. There are complex thoughts and gears turning, but I don't sense a town agenda yet. I'm not sure how to explain it, but it feels off to me, he doesn't emotionally match what 1 day we had in the Voxx 9er and I'm not sure I believed his thoughts on spf were real. I don't need him to like, spend time convincing me, I'm hoping and assuming a light switch will go off at some point.

I don't have enough of a sense to sort within tiers, so they're alphabetical for now. Maybe I'm concentrating too much on people I know and being fooled, lol.

These feel mostly like foggy thoughts outside of nutella, so this isn't presented in a way that's supposed to be anything but ranting (and trying to keep it short, oops) about a lot of cogs in motion, but due to the nature of this game and the post cap, I thought it'd be better to spectate and at least try and collect my thoughts to create a reads list and say some things, and then try to interact and post in a more preferred way.

Also, hi @Dyslexicon! I'd say sheep nutella if you'd like, I trust her and she seems to have an increasing handle on the game affairs. I am really excited to be on the same side here... I think it's true!? I hope.

like look at her dizzy read, it's not just based on meta, but how dizzy's interacting with tangy, the thread, and how he's treating a lhf

same with most of his town reads, even the ones i disagree with like alison

[Hally]

sunbae’s whole sequence re: spf’s guide was villagery

[bronana]

Plus any random grouping of five players has approximately a 75% chance of having at least one wolf, if my math is right.

Spoiler: show

1 - (13 / 17)^5 = 73.85% of at least one wolf

if you want to assume "I am town and I am not one of those five players" = 1 - (12 / 16)^5 = 76.3% of at least one wolf

There are some underlying assumptions about votes on a wagon being independent events which isn't really true, but whatever, close enough. Been awhile since I took any stats or probability courses though. Yes this a useless post a wolf could easily make, sue me.

Just gotta pop in with even more wolfy IIOA to say that players' alignments aren't independent so it would actually be

1- (13/17) * (12/16) * (11/15) * (10/14) * (9/13) = 56.1%

Since spf posted her own spf reading guide, here's my less boring spf reading guide from the same game. Spoiler alert, it worked.

lol i'm an idiot, i should have known that was the way to do it. like i said, been awhile!

[Dyslexicon]

Oh, that's right! @Tangrowth If you are town this will be our first game as the same alignment!!! I can barely contain my excitement or disappointment, depending!!!

Watch you being scum this game though lol. Watch the universe betray me.