AIM Mafia [Town Wins!]

[Justplayingitcool]

I think I am his top town lol. he's just locked me in as town all game. perhaps this is why I am alive?

he also targeted me for chat today and hasn't done anything which... I feel is more aligned to him as town. He gets very busy in endgame as mafia.

tsp? he did have a brief tinfoiley moment but i do recall him suspecting ted over you

[MacDougall]

I think I am his top town lol. he's just locked me in as town all game. perhaps this is why I am alive?

he also targeted me for chat today and hasn't done anything which... I feel is more aligned to him as town. He gets very busy in endgame as mafia.

tsp? he did have a brief tinfoiley moment but i do recall him suspecting ted over you

I am pretty sure I am his top town. His only message to me in chat is to say he thinks we're both dying here and that town loses because of it. pretty sure he targeted me because he has me as town.

[MacDougall]

jpic who alive have you not had chat with?

[Justplayingitcool]

jpic who alive have you not had chat with?

I have been in a chat with everyone alive

[Marmot]

Spoiler: show

Day 1:

Bo -> Falcon (assigned)
Dana -> JPIC
Esooa -> Mac
Falcon -> Sean
Gavial -> Marmot
JJJ -> TSP
JPIC -> Marmot
Mac -> Esooa
Marmot -> Nanook
Nanook -> Mac
Sean -> Marmot
Ted -> JPIC
TSP -> Mac


Day 2:

Dana -> Nanook
Esooa -> Dana
Falcon -> Marmot
Gavial -> Nanook
JPIC -> Mac
Mac -> JPIC (assigned)
Marmot -> (JJJ)
Nanook -> (JJJ)
Sean -> Mac
Ted -> Marmot (assigned)
TSP -> Nanook


Day 3:

Dana -> Marmot
Falcon -> Mac (?)
JPIC -> TSP
Mac -> Nanook
Marmot -> TSP
Nanook -> Mac Esooa
Sean -> TSP
Ted -> JPIC (rng)
TSP -> Falcon

Day 4:

Jpic -> Dana (RNG)
Marmot -> falcon
Falcon ->
Mac -> Ted
Ted -> Mac
TSP ->
Nanook -> Dana

Day 5:

JPIC -> Nanook
Marmot -> Mac
Mac -> Marmot
TSP -> Mac
Nanook -> falcon (rng)

I forgot to add, I picked Mac today, and falcon yesterday

[MacDougall]

jpic who alive have you not had chat with?

I have been in a chat with everyone alive

rank in order who was towniest to least in chats

[MacDougall]

day 3 nanook targeted me i believe

[MacDougall]

according to him in chat anyway

[Justplayingitcool]

jpic who alive have you not had chat with?

I have been in a chat with everyone alive

rank in order who was towniest to least in chats

tsp
Mac
nanook
Marmot

i am probably being harsh on marmot because i didn’t do much either in the chats but it was pretty underwhelming compared to my other ones. I don’t think marmot was scummy so i’d put it at null. We were sort of joking between our threeway convo speaking in spanish

Tsp i said before was like the longest chat i had out of everyone so far by a country mile. I think we also had a productive chat as well mac

Nook in third and nothing seems too suspect from that either atm. Not talked a whole lot in comparison to you and tsp. Nook brought up yeeting you and then just yeeting whoever you told us to in f3. I agreed as long as it wasn’t me who you wanted yeeted.

[Justplayingitcool]

day 3 nanook targeted me i believe

Oh strange, not sure why I thought you were in a chat together.

Who did you target for chats?

Mac, Jay, esooa, Dana, let it rand last night and guess what

It was falcon

I may be cursed

I assumed this was who he targeted in order of days but i guess not?

[Justplayingitcool]

Mac targeted me d3

Nook claims you targeted him mac

[MacDougall]

jpic who alive have you not had chat with?

I have been in a chat with everyone alive

rank in order who was towniest to least in chats

tsp
Mac
nanook
Marmot

i am probably being harsh on marmot because i didn’t do much either in the chats but it was pretty underwhelming compared to my other ones. I don’t think marmot was scummy so i’d put it at null. We were sort of joking between our threeway convo speaking in spanish

Tsp i said before was like the longest chat i had out of everyone so far by a country mile. I think we also had a productive chat as well mac

Nook in third and nothing seems too suspect from that either atm. Not talked a whole lot in comparison to you and tsp. Nook brought up yeeting you and then just yeeting whoever you told us to in f3. I agreed as long as it wasn’t me who you wanted yeeted.

thanks

[MacDougall]

Mac targeted me d3

Nook claims you targeted him mac

cross targeted

[Justplayingitcool]

But nook said he targeted esooa d3 unless I misunderstood

[MacDougall]

day 3 nanook targeted me i believe

Oh strange, not sure why I thought you were in a chat together.

Who did you target for chats?

Mac, Jay, esooa, Dana, let it rand last night and guess what

It was falcon

I may be cursed

I assumed this was who he targeted in order of days but i guess not?

He told me in private chat that he targeted me d3 and esooa targeted him because he asked Dana to ask her to. He was confused about it at first. He said he targeted her then was like no wait I targeted you and Esooa targeted me. He said he wanted to set up a 3 way chat between us because we were his top towns at the time. He said he asked Dana to tell Esooa to target him who he had a chat with day 2.

[MacDougall]

But nook said he targeted esooa d3 unless I misunderstood

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME square this up please.

[Justplayingitcool]

My head hurts

[MacDougall]

Hot takes.

Nanook is in his town range
Jay is out of his scumrange (lol)
Esooa is town because she cares about my reads and shit
TSP chose me to chat with and has provided me with some reads in private and feels aight
Marmot is town because I am townreading him for some reason and that probably just means he is
Dana is town because she doesn't care bout looking bad
BoKnows is town because he doesn't give a shit about looking like a slanker
Gavial is town because Esooa reckons he is

That leaves me with an easy winning POE of Jpic, Ted, Seanzie and Falcon. Gg mafia.

I would have died n1 over Jay if this was accurate.

[MacDougall]

Dana
Esooa
falcon45ca
Justplayingitcool
Marmot
tedxtr

---POE Line---

BoKnows
Gavial
MacDougall
Nanook
Seanzie
TonyStarkPrime

Names within tiers are only alphabetical. We still have room for a POE of six, so that's what I have here. We would benefit from narrowing it further though, especially if I am right and end up dead early.

BoKnows and Gavial -- I have no personal reason to call either of these players civilians. Call them my "top two suspects" if such a thing need exist.

I can formulate suspicions of Mac, Nanook, and Tony if I want to. These three all have some kind of loose connections that might make them compatible with each other, but not necessarily problematic on their own.

Seanzie seems fine over the last page or so. I have room for six though so he stays put.

If I am wrong about a green name, my first guess would be Esooa. I don't feel strongly about that or have much concern at the moment, otherwise I wouldn't post this at all.

Jay died because he was accurate.

I take JPIC as clear now.

[MacDougall]

Not necessarily Marmot tho probably.

[MacDougall]

im going around and around... currently back to nanook being the wolf.

[MacDougall]

but Jay had Nanook and Seanzie as incompat. Just TSP and JPIC.

But TSP is JPIC top town.

and TSP isn't getting busy powerwolfing.

and he's townreading me.

But JPIC is town.

...

Occam's razor? It's Marmot.

[MacDougall]

Marmot tried to save Seanzie the end.

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

[MacDougall]

Disclaimer I am completely lost here. I don't think I can solve this unless everyone actually posts today.

[Justplayingitcool]

One thing to note is that nook told me he thought the charts from jjj doesn’t matter because it was all from d1

[Justplayingitcool]

Falcon did suspect marmot last day phase but I can’t help but wonder if it was a frame job?

[Justplayingitcool]

@Seanzie how you doin' buddy? Come and vote plz?

lol u want ted dead that bad eh

I want sean to come say things and vote, that's a reasonable desire.

Defensive much.

You made a silly inference, so I explained myself, yes.

@MacDougall does marmot make these posts as a partner?

[MacDougall]

marmot and seanzie interactions were strange. Flippant/fun.

marmot tried to save him.

the end.

[MacDougall]

@Seanzie how you doin' buddy? Come and vote plz?

lol u want ted dead that bad eh

I want sean to come say things and vote, that's a reasonable desire.

Defensive much.

You made a silly inference, so I explained myself, yes.

@MacDougall does marmot make these posts as a partner?

dude

if you want to look for reasons why not you will find them. I've looked.

Its time to look for why.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

But nook said he targeted esooa d3 unless I misunderstood

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME square this up please.

Yeah I did, mac has it right

I keep forgetting I changed my target halfway through the night

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

But nook said he targeted esooa d3 unless I misunderstood

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME square this up please.

Yeah I did, mac has it right

I keep forgetting I changed my target halfway through the night

*did crosstarget

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I probably keep forgetting cause I'm confusing who I targeted for chat with who I nked, senior problems amirite

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’m aware of this game and I’ve read like some of the posts today

[TonyStarkPrime]

The compromise is Ill take care of this after finishing my paper tomorrow

[TonyStarkPrime]

At the beginning of the day I was concerned because Mac and I had opposite reads and now we have the same reads and I didn’t even say anything so mind meld

[Justplayingitcool]

Level 0 probably does point to it just being marmot

[Justplayingitcool]

For example, killing falcon and wanting ted yeeted over sean

[Justplayingitcool]

If marmot wasn’t the instigator in the push on me then I perhaps dock points on him being town like I originally thought

[Justplayingitcool]

Online - Town

Dana
Seanzie
Gavial

Away - Slight Town Lean

Justplayingitcool
JaggedJimmyJay
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Offline - POE

Esooa
falcon45ca
TonyStarkPrime
MacDougall
Tedxtr
BoKnows

Why did you originally give sean a townread here?

[Justplayingitcool]

Also, anyone who targeted Mac is probably town.

hmmmm

[Justplayingitcool]

Ted resigning himself and not doing anything to pushback is not a great look

To be fair, he's pushed Mac.

yeah but, the most recent post doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that Mac is the right option. I expect Ted to fight it rather than resign himself with like 14/15 hours left in the day

I agree. If Ted flips green, I'm looking at Marmot/TSP before Mac/Nook

Maybe falcon died because he was right?

[Justplayingitcool]

I have actually just played two other games that have ended in the last couple weeks where sean was also scum. One over on PerC, and another here (Beelzebub Mafia). Sean had me bamboozled in both of those games, in that I eventually had him townread, and it took some convincing from other players to read him otherwise.


Looking at those games, there is one thing I can see that is a pattern, sean seems to like have a set of 2-3 players he suspects where one of them is a teammate of his. In Beelzebub on Day 1, sean took a little heat, and called out esooa/hk for crappy votes, but in the end, let me get yeeted. HK was his teammate, esooa was not. Similarly in the PerC game, sean spent Day 1 having suspicions on Sonny (T) and Erika (M), albeit, he didn't push them and let another townie get yeeted.

Sean won Beelzebub, because hk flipped, giving sean credit to live to endgame. In the PerC game, sean was the first wolf to flip, so he never got the chance to get any credit for it.

I don't know if that pattern will hold as easily in this game, having only one teammate. It's possible this could happen. If there are players sean was suspecting but not pushing, that would be where to look. But I'd be more inclined to believe that sean either protected or ignored his teammate. I think ya'll have come to that conclusion about ted at this point.

Who would fit that mold d1 iyo

That's two separate ideas I threw out
1) Sean interacted little with his partner
2) Sean shielded/townread his partner

ted - Sean had one shallow interaction with ted before stating a TR of him. There's also posts like this that push Mac away from ted. Fits the theory.
Nanook - Sean took a kind of "shade Nanook for keeping his cards close to his chest", which imo, is an easy way for a wolf to treat town-Nanook. Not a fit.
Mac - Sean had a bit of a defensive approach to Mac's Day 1 suspicions, which to me looked like someone trying to throw a townie off the trail, not distancing. Regardless, doesn't fit the above theory.
falcon - These two had a lot to say to each other. Falcon TR'd sean for his spelling mistake. Sean questioned a few people Day 1 about their TR's of falcon. Falcon himself was never a TR of sean though, so he doesn't fit.
JPIC - no meaningful interaction until Day 3 + sean gave him a TR on Day 1 + they targeted all the same people for BTSC. This is a fit.
TSP - a few interactions, voted TSP on Day 2. Not a fit.


So that leaves ted and JPIC based on the above theory.

Now that we know ted was green, i kind of want to defenestrate marmot for this post. Kind of hedging on a theory without committing on the read later on, which makes it a useless post.

[Justplayingitcool]

Spoiler: show

Online - Town

Dana - Absolutely reeks of town. I admit I'm surprised that she wasn't the nightkill and I have a slight tinfoil for that reason, but I feel otherwise confident both because of how she's played the game, and based on other people's reads of her.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - I feel fairly confident on Nanook being town. He slanked in our chat yeah, that's what I'd expect, but he also meme-ISO'd everyone on Day 1, which I don't think he does as scum. Also, his votes, while sometimes sheeping, have come with his own reasoning rather than being strictly sheep votes.

JPIC - His reactions to votes seem to be NAI, so my one reason to suspect him is invalid. Also, he's trying to solve Gavial. As scum, I don't think he has extended conversations with Gavial trying to draw out his reasoning for his reads. I find this behavior town.


Away - Slight Town Lean

Tedxtr - I think ted seems comfortable in this game. I've seen many flashes of solviness from him, he doesn't seem perturbed by any heat sent his way. I think he and JPIC had a pretty active chat (or at least I encouraged some of it). Also, similar to JPIC, he seems to be trying to figure out Gavial.

Esooa - This is another weird slot. My perception is that she's spending more time solving in chat than in the thread. I would like clarification on that from her chat partners. She's also making less waves than I expect from her town game which is disconcerting to me.

Gavial - This is a read I'm struggling with. Despite being the leading wagon today, he still seems like he's trying to solve the game. Or at least that's what I'm seeing. I don't follow his read progressions very well because he sometimes doesn't explain them, so I could just be misreading and he's just trying to dilute the thread with random takes. He has had moments where I question his sincerity, and he was a little surprisingly quiet in our chat towards EOD1. But he's slight town now due to his current actions which I find are fine. One thing I have trouble with on Gavial is that he could be teamed with anybody in my mind.

MacDougall - I don't trust Mac, but that's probably more of a shortcoming in my own play rather than him being scum. He is in my POE because I don't trust him, but I'm willing to sheep the numerous townreads he's drawing from other players (particularly the ones who have BTSC with him). I want him to pick me for tomorrow though.



Offline - POE

Seanzie - He's fallen off hard mainly due to his single post today, which felt a little bit like a shade thrown at me for picking JJJ last night. I do like his Day 1 and our chat, but I also think that sean killed JJJ last night after some of the chat conversations we had.

TonyStarkPrime - Nothing particularly wrong with his play, but nothing that makes me want to TR him either. I do think this is more indicative of his town game, but I don't feel confident enough to give him a townread for it.

falcon45ca - I really dislike this post from falcon. Like yeah Mac didn't answer my question, but imo, Mac doesn't dance around questions, he'll answer them or call them dumb. Similar to Tony, he hasn't done much for me to TR him, but I think he's had worse moments.

If we're talking NKA, I'd argue that sean wouldn't kill Jay, but that's my opinion.

Marmot, do you mind explaining the sean stuff again. In your reads list, you felt Sean would kill JJJ, but in your second post, you stated he wouldn't kill them?

I don't exactly remember the thought process behind that post about sean. Yes I do think sean fell off Day 2 (and really fell off hard Day 3, no posting the final 36 hours). As for the NK choice... I don't recall. Maybe at the time I thought that sean would kill JJJ after learning what a strong player he is (and that he was never gonna be yeeted). But I changed my mind later because I thought that since JJJ did have a TR of sean, he might have left him alive.

Do you mind pointing out the post where you think jjj had a tr on sean?

From what I saw jjj was vaguely suspicious of him and had him in the PoE line

[Justplayingitcool]

im worried im absolutely pocketed by mac rn and im just being an idiot. I really struggle to see sean partnered with mac from the string of posts presented by marmot, and tsp who i originally had a v read thinks mac is town as well. Falcon never wanted to yeet mac before either of marmot/tsp

[Justplayingitcool]

What does everyone make of marmot this day phase. Pushed nook a bit, then me and now is on TSP.

I originally v read marmot for pushing me because i thought it was a genuine push from his thoughts. But marmot pushes nook after the spat between nook & mac. Pushes me after some encouragement from mac. And now pushes tsp when mac was on tsp again.

this game is cursed

[Justplayingitcool]

Dumb read: nook v for constantly forgetting who he targeted for btsc

[TonyStarkPlaysItCool]

JPIC - I've generally toneread you as town this game, but I am concerned about your approach today. I don't get the sense that you're trying to find the last wolf, and I think you're hedging around and hoping something sticks.

The funny thing is, the one thing marmot accuses me of is something I have vague suspicions of marmot doing as well

[Justplayingitcool]

lol whoops, sorry!

[Justplayingitcool]

@MacDougall has marmot said anything in chat since you accused him of being the wolf?

Nanook hasn't said much in chats. He believes nobody has much scum equity and therefore we all have equal amounts.