Double Elimination Mafia town win

[Long Con]

Hey, it's almost done! Seems so fast when you join the game a day and a half late! Ha-cha-chaa!

[Kylemii]

day 1 goes way faster when you don't receive the email notification until 8 hours before eod i agree

[Kylemii]

New Meta skill gained

[Kylemii]

i don't know how to feel about this. tbh i joined this game thinking it was just a game where two people got yeeted each day phase, based on the title

[DrWilgy]

Lol whoops, I forgot it was Saturday.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@Alison @MacDougall @Timsup2nothin @DaisyCloud @Gavial @Made @Poison and @TonyStarkPrime are now in the losers bracket! Only they may post and vote. Remember that post caps do NOT reset, and there will be harsh penalties for intentionally or wildly exceeding the cap!

You'll have four votes apiece, and four of you will be eliminated at deadline, which is april 25, 7pm EDT

@Kylemii @Marmot @falcon45ca @G-Man @DrWilgy @Moghedien @hollowkatt @Long Con you guys are the winners bracket, and cannot post during this phase!

This is how close you all are to the cap:

[Timsup2nothin]

soooooo

new poll then?

[Gavial]

Losers Bracket

Alison
Mac
Tim
Daisy
Gavial
Made
Poison
Tsp

My for sure votes:
Mac and Alison for self resolve reasons
Tim because gut and I don’t want them to late game.

Never voting TSP, hard town.
Leaving Made/Daisy/Poison as my PoE for this elimination.
Leaning Poison, not confident in either 3 though.

I’m hoping @Marmot and @falcon45ca can both lead town in the Winners Bracket and make sure the scum are unable to lead it.

[Gavial]

I’m not going to talk for the rest of the night since cap doesn’t reset for us and I’d rather not be speechless coming into Night 2/3/4.

If you think I’m scum. Vote for me.
If you think I’m Town. Keep me alive.

IRDC, I’ll vote for whom I believe to be most probable scum and I hope you all do the same.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

To clarify: the cap resets at the start of each cycle (ie it will reset between n1 and d2). It does not reset between day and night. So at SOD2, everyone will have a new 100 posts to use for d2/n2, etc. etc.

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine
[VOTE: Made] aubergine
[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

[MacDougall]

I am very disappointed Marmot didn't get put in the lower bracket.

[Gavial]

To clarify: the cap resets at the start of each cycle (ie it will reset between n1 and d2). It does not reset between day and night. So at SOD2, everyone will have a new 100 posts to use for d2/n2, etc. etc.

Oh ok so I can talk then and not have to be speechless the next nights.
Nice!

Time to use my powerful voice!

[MacDougall]

To clarify: the cap resets at the start of each cycle (ie it will reset between n1 and d2). It does not reset between day and night. So at SOD2, everyone will have a new 100 posts to use for d2/n2, etc. etc.

Oh ok so I can talk then and not have to be speechless the next nights.
Nice!

Time to use my powerful voice!

Who do you intend to murderise here?

[Gavial]

To clarify: the cap resets at the start of each cycle (ie it will reset between n1 and d2). It does not reset between day and night. So at SOD2, everyone will have a new 100 posts to use for d2/n2, etc. etc.

Oh ok so I can talk then and not have to be speechless the next nights.
Nice!

Time to use my powerful voice!

Who do you intend to murderise here?

Read my post above plus who my votes are on.
The last vote of mine I’m still deciding.

[Gavial]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine
[VOTE: Made] aubergine
[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

Can I have your thoughts regarding Tim and Daisy please.

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine
[VOTE: Made] aubergine
[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

Can I have your thoughts regarding Tim and Daisy please.

I believe Daisy is derp cleared.
I have no real thoughts on Tim. Been wolfy?

[DaisyCloud]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

for someone who wanted in so bad and all all murder daisy now .. Alison has been surprisingly quiet.

and I thought she was going to cut off MacDougall's head and parade it around too.

[DaisyCloud]

Losers Bracket

Alison
Mac
Tim
Daisy
Gavial
Made
Poison
Tsp

My for sure votes:
Mac and Alison for self resolve reasons
Tim because gut and I don’t want them to late game.

Never voting TSP, hard town.
Leaving Made/Daisy/Poison as my PoE for this elimination.
Leaning Poison, not confident in either 3 though.

I’m hoping @Marmot and @falcon45ca can both lead town in the Winners Bracket and make sure the scum are unable to lead it.

why is TSP hard town for you? they haven't said or done much if anything. please explain and if possible share quotes. thank u kindly ♡

[DaisyCloud]

I am very disappointed Marmot didn't get put in the lower bracket.

I'm disappointed you and Tim are here. neither one of you should be here.

I'm thinking Tim is town and I lean town on you so far.

u not poking at me is disconcerting tho.

[Gavial]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine
[VOTE: Made] aubergine
[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

Can I have your thoughts regarding Tim and Daisy please.

I believe Daisy is derp cleared.
I have no real thoughts on Tim. Been wolfy?

I believe Falcon is deep cleared.

[Gavial]

I am very disappointed Marmot didn't get put in the lower bracket.

I'm disappointed you and Tim are here. neither one of you should be here.

I'm thinking Tim is town and I lean town on you so far.

u not poking at me is disconcerting tho.

I think both should be here as I think both can be scum.

[DaisyCloud]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine
[VOTE: Made] aubergine
[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

Can I have your thoughts regarding Tim and Daisy please.

I believe Daisy is derp cleared.
I have no real thoughts on Tim. Been wolfy?

I believe Falcon is deep cleared.

how is falcon deep cleared? it be helpful if you explain things or share quotes or whatever to back up your statements.

also i thought you previously town read Alison and wanted to see her face off with MacDougall? am I mistaken or getting u mixed up with someone else?

why do u scum read Allison?

[Timsup2nothin]

Okay, so four of us are gonna die, and the other four are kinda winding up as the guardians of the future. So before we get totally involved in murdering each other I think everyone should commit to a legacy reads list on the other eight players (and no I am not ready to give such list now but I will. When four die I'm hoping we get two wolves and I am really confident we get one...but I think it is unlikely we get all three and end the game so the legacies of the town flips will be important.

Mac even though I am about 90% convinced you are town I am glad you are here.

Alison, I am pretty sure you are wolfing but I am putting that aside and hoping we can sort out the best four kills if you are town.

glgl

[DaisyCloud]

I am very disappointed Marmot didn't get put in the lower bracket.

I'm disappointed you and Tim are here. neither one of you should be here.

I'm thinking Tim is town and I lean town on you so far.

u not poking at me is disconcerting tho.

I think both should be here as I think both can be scum.

they can be, but doesn't mean they are. I still hold Tim would better serve town in bracket 1. I don't think all the mafia are here yet.

Tim has been misunderstood and misyeeted to many times. not sure why people would think he is deep wolf or scummy so much. how is he as a wolf? explain how he is wolf here and not town? I need quotes and examples.

how r u so sure about his alignment when it is only nite 1?

if he is wolf why am I sheep in your eyes? or poe actually.

sorry for bombarding you. we share nite together and I want to get to know you to figure out your alignment.

thank u for your time and attention ♡

[Timsup2nothin]

I am very disappointed Marmot didn't get put in the lower bracket.

I'm disappointed you and Tim are here. neither one of you should be here.

I'm thinking Tim is town and I lean town on you so far.

u not poking at me is disconcerting tho.

I think both should be here as I think both can be scum.

Of course I can be. The day I rand wolf and can't manage 48 hours of being at least towny enough to stay off the blocks man I hang it up. The flip side of it is that I not only can be town, but from your perspective there should be an 80% chance that I AM town. So this blood lust seems a little weird. But no problem.

If you are in the four that survive this (and the game doesn't end) you will have at least two flips of confirmed town so you would want to know and understand their reads on the people who might be in the next batch. Not that being dead makes anyone right, but at least you'll know that their suspicions come from a good place. Conversely, should you become dead and flip town people are going to want to know more than "could be wolf' about the opinions you hold.

What about Mac makes you single him out? Where are your votes, and why?

[Alison]

I think anyone wanting to be in the second bracket is sus af

okay wait expand on this

makes sense to me anyways. bracket 2 is where the actual chopping happens. If you want to be in there getting your hands dirty, instead of sending all the wolfy people there to fight amongst themselves maybe you have an agenda

Yeah send the wolfy people and a bunch of unassertive townies, that'll definitely lead to Mac/Tim wolf being voted out and not at all to 4 town deaths.

[Alison]

I do not trust Alison one bit in the LB. Perhaps I will learn to gloss over Alison’s bravado in time like I have for Mac, but I don’t trust anyone who talks all high and mighty of their skills. No one is a mafia god.

You are probably town because of the x and + thing but I think it's absurd that you came away from my ISO saying that I'm talking all high and mighty of my skills when I have not mentioned my skill level one time this entire game. The only thing I've done is inform you that I have a good read on Mac and that I am convinced Mac and Tim and Daisy are scum.

[Timsup2nothin]

I do not trust Alison one bit in the LB. Perhaps I will learn to gloss over Alison’s bravado in time like I have for Mac, but I don’t trust anyone who talks all high and mighty of their skills. No one is a mafia god.

You are probably town because of the x and + thing but I think it's absurd that you came away from my ISO saying that I'm talking all high and mighty of my skills when I have not mentioned my skill level one time this entire game. The only thing I've done is inform you that I have a good read on Mac and that I am convinced Mac and Tim and Daisy are scum.

Alison, "I have identified all three wolves with a high degree of certainty with no flips based off a few posts" is sort of a high and mighty claim about your skills.

Given the current state of affairs, and without placing a burden on other players to just assume you are town and trust you, what do you think is the optimum strategy for an ordinary town person in the lower bracket? Long term. I mean, sure "identify the three wolves that are all on lower bracket, eliminate them, ez game" is a great strat, but requires some prerequisites that may not be available.

[Alison]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine
[VOTE: Made] aubergine
[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

He votes literally everyone except Tim and Daisy.

Yeah they look pretty damn aligned from where I'm standing. Maybe it's scum Mac trying to desperation antispew, but either way we should get rid of him.

Tim going from "there's a wolf between Mac and Alison, and I'm leaning towards Alison" -> "Alison is 90% scum" is a puzzling progression, and I think a convenient one.

DaisyCloud is probably the one among the three least likely to be actually scum because despite their scummy behavior they have towntold a couple of times and they're in the position to be wrongly antispewed as scum due to being incorrectly linked to scum players. I still think they have legitimate wolf equity however, and they're probably a good exe just to clear things up on that front.

If I am wrong about my 3-person solve, the next candidates are probably Kylemii (for being really spooked about dropping into the loser's bracket) or hollowkatt (as far as I can tell they're just straight sussing all the people I think are town). I think it's weird that Marmot wanted so badly to go to loser's but ended up not going when anyone else who was pressured to go to loser's did. I don't know if that's AI for him, or in what direction, but it's a note I'm sticking here.

[VOTE: Tim] aubergine
[VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine
[VOTE: DaisyCloud] aubergine

My strong town reads are Gavial, Moghedien, Falcon, G-Man. I am willing to put myself in the 4 as a show of good faith if it will convince any of you to put my scumreads in as well (Tim/Macdougall/DaisyCloud). If my scumreads don't pan out, fall back on my town reads. That's my legacy.

[Timsup2nothin]

@MacDougall

Could you also answer that question please?

[Alison]

I do not trust Alison one bit in the LB. Perhaps I will learn to gloss over Alison’s bravado in time like I have for Mac, but I don’t trust anyone who talks all high and mighty of their skills. No one is a mafia god.

You are probably town because of the x and + thing but I think it's absurd that you came away from my ISO saying that I'm talking all high and mighty of my skills when I have not mentioned my skill level one time this entire game. The only thing I've done is inform you that I have a good read on Mac and that I am convinced Mac and Tim and Daisy are scum.

Alison, "I have identified all three wolves with a high degree of certainty with no flips based off a few posts" is sort of a high and mighty claim about your skills.

Given the current state of affairs, and without placing a burden on other players to just assume you are town and trust you, what do you think is the optimum strategy for an ordinary town person in the lower bracket? Long term. I mean, sure "identify the three wolves that are all on lower bracket, eliminate them, ez game" is a great strat, but requires some prerequisites that may not be available.

It's not really a claim about my skills. It's a claim about my level of confidence in my reads. If you want to interpret me pushing on my scumreads with high confidence as me saying that I'm a mafia god that's on you. Anyone who knows me knows that is not how I operate.

I think the best strategy for an ordinary town person in the lower bracket is to just treat lower bracket as essentially a mountainous game where you have 4 votes. Play it as normal, identify any other town that may exist within the bracket, identify your scumreads, vote them out.

[Alison]

I believe Daisy is derp cleared.
I have no real thoughts on Tim. Been wolfy?

Explain.

[TonyStarkPrime]

This worked the exact opposite of the way it should have

[Long Con]

This worked the exact opposite of the way it should have

[Long Con]

Don't kill Tim, he's town!

[Alison]

Don't kill Tim, he's town!

I'm not convinced. You guys are too easily distracted by flashy theory posts.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Whoever voted for me is a wolf this game is ez

[Long Con]

Don't kill Tim, he's town!

I'm not convinced. You guys are too easily distracted by flashy theory posts.

Maybe. Maybe I'm a better analyst of the AI value of a theory post than you think.

[Long Con]

Whoever voted for me is a wolf this game is ez

I voted you because I think you're a strong player. If you're town, be strong and kill wolves now. If not, then die. Either way, no more whining.

[Alison]

Okay so LC is town, cool.

[Timsup2nothin]

This worked the exact opposite of the way it should have

Alison and Mac hard wolf reading each other sort of set the terms. The good news is that I am pretty confident that one of them is right and the other is a wolf, because I don't really see both of them being wrong as likely. They know each other too well. My inclination here is to just get comprehensive reads lists from both of them, then kill them both to see which one to follow.

What to do with the other two kills is the complicated part. I don't think following Alison before flipping her is ideal, because for one thing I am town and will be useful later, and for another I have minimal faith in the associative read on Daisy who has seemed reasonably towny.

[Timsup2nothin]

Whoever voted for me is a wolf this game is ez

I voted you because I think you're a strong player. If you're town, be strong and kill wolves now. If not, then die. Either way, no more whining.

Well said.

[Timsup2nothin]

LC, good post but you aren't supposed to be posting ya daft.

[Alison]

Oh I didn't even realize LC wasn't supposed to be posting though. Rest in peace.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@Long Con has been modkilled. Please pay close attention to pings, and only post in the phases you're allowed to post in. When in doubt, if your name is not in the poll, don't post!

Flip will be posted at the end of the phase. You are still choosing four people to vote out.

D2 will have 7 people selecting three to move to the losers bracket, as per the rules.

I'm tagging everyone to alert them, PLEASE DO NOT POST IF YOURE IN THE WINNERS BRACKET, thank you. If your name is in the poll, you can post. If it isn't, save it for tomorrow.

@alison
@DaisyCloud
@falcon45ca
@G-Man
@Gavial
@hollowkatt
@Kylemii
@Long Con
@MacDougall
@Made
@Mongoose
@Moghedien
@Poison
@Timsup2nothin
@TonyStarkPrime
@DrWilgy

[Timsup2nothin]

Ouch. I think.

I think Long Con was town, so that's not helpful.

[Gavial]

@DaisyCloud Response.

@falcon45ca is derp cleared due as how he responded to @Marmot regarding the post of theirs.

Saying how it’s not VT but the Rolecard says town. The way he responded to it felt like town knowing and thinking this.
Last game Esooa did something similar where they thought they were town as I’ll admit the role PM never stated you were town.
Falcon questioned it and I SR’ed him that entire game until we lost and he was town and then he hated me for it.
Yet I voted Esooa anyway so LOL. I like to vote IC’s I guess.

Who says I SR Alison?
I just believe the fact there is scum within them and Mac.
Alison willing to sacrifice themselves for Mac but Mac refusing to do the same.
Sus tbh.

Tim is more of a gut then anything.
One I want to follow.

I have a smaller gut hit on Poison but that’s scum only in an Alison!Town world.

Your PoE because you aren’t ObvTown/IC?
TSP is though.

Yeah I want to take Me, Daisy, Made and TSP into Night 2.

[Gavial]

Ouch. I think.

I think Long Con was town, so that's not helpful.

It doesn’t really matter what he was, he would know at EoN anyway.

[Gavial]

Also if I had to take a gut gamble and if we assume scum is playing well and 2 scum consist within the Winner’s bracket.
Here’s where I’m at:
Winners Bracket

Marmot - Def Town
Kyle - Prob Town
Hollow - Gut Scum
G-Man - Prob Town
Wilgy - Null Slight Leany Villager
Mog - Gut Scum
Falcon - Def Town