Fargo Mafia [Game Ends]

[Hally]

there is mechanically no way the two teams know eachother

that's just ridiculous

if their win cons don't align yet one person shares teams it would make no sense and just be way too confusing

if the win cons do align and then know eachother it's functionally not different teams

yeah, it’s not a thing

[Sloonei]

So it's agreed. Falcon is tomorrow's chop.

Why falcon over Al?

that was a joke

[Hally]

i hate the bk drunk posting

what was wrong with it?

Felt incredibly fake and cliche

you think he faked being drunk?

[fingersplints]

@Hally who played that game you mentioned with wolf tony f3 that is playing this one? Basically who do you think might be justifiable paranoid?

[Justplayingitcool]

i hate the bk drunk posting

what was wrong with it?

Felt incredibly fake and cliche

you think he faked being drunk?

Yes

[Sloonei]

any idea how many wolves could be in the two teams? someone mentioned 3-3

i have no clue how multiball ratio works

3-3 or 4-3 have been my guesses.

Also not to toot my own horn, but there’s no way I’m KC Mafia via marmot interactions.

[Hally]

@Hally who played that game you mentioned with wolf tony f3 that is playing this one? Basically who do you think might be justifiable paranoid?

here’s the game: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... =27&t=2055

jay ran it

boknows, falcon, kza, esooa, mac, spf, sloonei, nook, alison and lc were all in it

[Hally]

i hate the bk drunk posting

what was wrong with it?

Felt incredibly fake and cliche

you think he faked being drunk?

Yes

nah

[Long Con]

i think that long con is on marmot's team.

thoughts?

why?

long con spent the majority of the day remaining overtly passive until an hour before the deadline - at which point he dropped a passionate defense of ted that was intended solely to spearhead the momentum onto the TSP wagon. i find it believable that long con could be a partner with marmot that believed that TSP was on the Other Team and decided to take a drastic measure to force the chop on him

it's not a theory that i believe in particularly strongly, though. i mostly dropped it to see what kind of reactions i got

why does he need to do that instead of just letting ted die? not saying i disagree with that theory though. it makes as much sense as anything

well, i can see long con wanting to strongarm the chop onto someone on his opposing team as opposed to wanting the chop to fall on someone that he believed was a villager. if long con is a wolf with marmot then he probably thought that ted was town, since ted was clearly unaligned with TSP

They're both town. If I were on a bad team, I would not know which one is town and which one is Gerhardt.

I pushed for ted being town before Michelle outed the check. I wouldn't get any cred for it if ted wasn't yeeted because no one would know I was right. Given my tenuous position, it would be unwise for wolf-me to work to eliminate one of the strongest contenders to be executed over me.

Also: how can we be sure Michelle is legit, and not just on a team with ted?

?????????????

You seem to have many questions, yet few words.

@Michelle next time don't mess around, if you have mech on a hugely scumread player say so. Don't wait the whole 48 hours

TonyStarkPrime next time don't mess around, if you're so largely scumread don't get all prideful and not claim. You weren't going to be the NK ever, even if you were what are the chances we get two wolves off of you? Also now we don't have your RB and vote silence.

I didn't mess around, i spent all my free time trying to explain Ted is not an option and trying a wagon on Nanook, wagon who didn't grow more than 4.

About Syndicate's people pride you have to accept it and work with it. After a while you'll get it

What I don't like was how come the Sindicate vets didn't notice, like I did, that Tony has villagery posts.

I think some of them are scum in the town core and some of them are sheeping the firsts.
This is my idea for now.

If you are indeed the cop and you’re thinking of checking me: don’t. I’m about to self-resolve. Your shot is better spent elsewhere.

Hey, that's great news!

[fingersplints]

there is mechanically no way the two teams know eachother

that's just ridiculous

if their win cons don't align yet one person shares teams it would make no sense and just be way too confusing

if the win cons do align and then know eachother it's functionally not different teams

yeah, it’s not a thing

Recruitments used to be a big thing back in the day. So I’ve seen it happen before where one team recruited a player that was a member of another team. But the recruited players win condition changed. I’ve never seen a shared player as described and I also don’t understand how that would work.

[Sloonei]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

[Hally]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

it was a saturday night

[fingersplints]

@Hally who played that game you mentioned with wolf tony f3 that is playing this one? Basically who do you think might be justifiable paranoid?

here’s the game: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... =27&t=2055

jay ran it

boknows, falcon, kza, esooa, mac, spf, sloonei, nook, alison and lc were all in it

That’s a lot of the same people. Worth considering I guess, but I’m not sure I’d trust paranoia as an excuse there anyways. It’s ok to be wary of someone for a previous good performance, but I don’t think that’s a good excuse for voting for them.

[Sloonei]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

it was a saturday night

Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: VOTE TSP] aubergine

I want to stick my neck out and say this is an ok look for falcon?

If we assume both wagons are town (Al & TSP) then why would falcon ever make this switch? He can stay right where he is.

Similarly, if Al is mafia then what mafia partner/or mafia on the other team would go out of their way to switch like that right at the last second to make themselves immediately obvious? Of course, this argument could be countered by WIFOM. It's not completely impossible but I think the scenario that falcon is town and had a change of heart is more likely.

@falcon45ca why did you switch your vote at EoD?

Why does it matter? I voted within my POE, I don't need to explain beyond that I'd think.

I was comfortable with Al or TSP and was quite clear about that all RD. Anyone acting like it was a sudden change of heart or was incongruous with my line of thought in game is being disingenuous

[falcon45ca]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

it was a saturday night

Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?

Sometimes people go out on Saturday nights with friends and do things away from the game in their normal lives?

[Hally]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

it was a saturday night

Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?

slackers

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: VOTE TSP] aubergine

I want to stick my neck out and say this is an ok look for falcon?

If we assume both wagons are town (Al & TSP) then why would falcon ever make this switch? He can stay right where he is.

Similarly, if Al is mafia then what mafia partner/or mafia on the other team would go out of their way to switch like that right at the last second to make themselves immediately obvious? Of course, this argument could be countered by WIFOM. It's not completely impossible but I think the scenario that falcon is town and had a change of heart is more likely.

@falcon45ca why did you switch your vote at EoD?

Why does it matter? I voted within my POE, I don't need to explain beyond that I'd think.

I was comfortable with Al or TSP and was quite clear about that all RD. Anyone acting like it was a sudden change of heart or was incongruous with my line of thought in game is being disingenuous

Nah, I think it is necessary to explain. You were comfortable with both options, but you chose Tony. Why?

[Sloonei]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

it was a saturday night

Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?

Sometimes people go out on Saturday nights with friends and do things away from the game in their normal lives?

That’s not how you get your name on banners.

[Hally]

[VOTE: VOTE TSP] aubergine

I want to stick my neck out and say this is an ok look for falcon?

If we assume both wagons are town (Al & TSP) then why would falcon ever make this switch? He can stay right where he is.

Similarly, if Al is mafia then what mafia partner/or mafia on the other team would go out of their way to switch like that right at the last second to make themselves immediately obvious? Of course, this argument could be countered by WIFOM. It's not completely impossible but I think the scenario that falcon is town and had a change of heart is more likely.

@falcon45ca why did you switch your vote at EoD?

Why does it matter? I voted within my POE, I don't need to explain beyond that I'd think.

I was comfortable with Al or TSP and was quite clear about that all RD. Anyone acting like it was a sudden change of heart or was incongruous with my line of thought in game is being disingenuous

i mean, you clearly had SOME reason to change your vote unless you’re going to claim it was completely random and your fingers just spontaneously typed it out. why wouldn’t you explain why you changed it?

[Hally]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

it was a saturday night

Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?

Sometimes people go out on Saturday nights with friends and do things away from the game in their normal lives?

unforgivable

[fingersplints]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

it was a saturday night

Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?

Some people do work weekends. I mean not me lol and to be honest I don’t think I know what anyone does for work here really

I planned on looking at the thread more, but it was already late and I fell asleep on the couch

[Hally]

falcon, i’m just trying to understand what was going on in your head and why you voted how you did. it’s not an accusation

[Hally]

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

it was a saturday night

Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?

Some people do work weekends. I mean not me lol and to be honest I don’t think I know what anyone does for work here really

I planned on looking at the thread more, but it was already late and I fell asleep on the couch

sloonei and i are just kidding

[fingersplints]

I was trying to get in on the banter but failed

[Hally]

I was trying to get in on the banter but failed

[Hally]

there’s a lot of people who are claiming they can clear themselves

alison claimed that, spf claimed that, nook claimed that, sloonei claimed that, michelle obviously could, the masons could kinda, etc

i’m highly skeptical of all this. it really feels like we’re about to get destroyed by some soup kill or something

[BoKnows]

hi

[BoKnows]

mu body hurts

[Sloonei]

hi

are you mafia?

[BoKnows]

no

[Sloonei]

These were my posts shortly before Drunk Posting started happening. I want to bump them so they're not lost.

Spoiler: show

I talked about reaffirming town reads yesterday but did not actually do anything about it. I think that should be a goal over the next ~48 hours. Not just for me, but for all of us. I do not disagree with Alison's proposal to swing away at the players in the bottom of our POE. The odds of all of dom/al/nanook being town are low. What this phase has taught us, though, is that the game is not quite as easy as we were making it out to be, and that means at least one person has fooled us. Double checking our town reads seems like the most effective way to remedy that.

Now, as for methods to do a mass sweep of players who are widely read as town in a multiball game... I don't know.

Mac's Guide to Scum Hunting in a Multiball Environment

Obviously the main thing to consider in a multiball environment is that the mafia are encouraged to scum hunt. Very good wolves know that it's actually pro their win con to, as normally, kill townies and push against town but the temptation to be sincere in hunting is overwhelming so in most compositions multiball environments feature an environment where everyone is scum hunting and every push in sincere. This causes what I dub the "Syndicate 2018 GOC Effect". Because everyone is scum hunting, and the mafia factions don't have a specific goal of gaslighting and exploiting townies to push the wrong places, the general thread sentiment is much more sound than it ordinarily is. Consensus POE's are likely to be very accurate.

How to find wolves in this environment beyond just ordinary POE can seem tricky, but it's actually quite easy if you focus on solving compartmentalized teams as opposed to "just wolfy". In actuality those that tend towards solving for base level reasons as opposed to heavily focused on team building are >rand mafia in this environment.

So we have a flipped mafia, now what? Well the normal rules still apply. Marmot probably wasn't in anti spew until late so he probably wasn't pushing on his teammates much, so you can use normal rules to check for who he spews as not his teammates. What's different is you can't rely on those reads to also be town and in actuality they are more likely to be mafia than town. The flipped wolf started the game with a more sound POE when it comes to hunting the other team than we did. So his reads are a great place to start looking for wolves from the other team. When it comes to reading those that the flipped wolf defended or town read, you need to check the agenda behind it. Was he genuinely townreading that person? Because that is a thing they can actually do. Remember usually wolves can TMI a town, but they can't here. They can only have genuine townreads. What is the agenda behind the town read? Was the person under any pressure? Is there any benefit to that person's survival in the flipped wolf town reading them? If so, maybe that's a team mate.

So questions that require answering:
1. Who did Marmot push on?
2. Who that he pushed on buried him?
3. Can we build a consensus small POE (less than 5 players) and then get everyone to draw a line in the sand on how they feel about that person?
4. Who has spewed themselves town by repeatedly focusing on multiball solving since the flip
5. Did anyone spew themselves mafia by TMIing that they knew it was multiball?

Just gonna bump this.

Mac's point about the scum teams starting with a smaller POE pool feels very useful for me right now.

Anyone down for tring to build a 5-person POE as an exercise?

al_sama, nanook, and dom are unavoidably going to be in it, I think. Though some people seem to be treating nanook as self-resolving with his "I have a role" claim. But meh. If I am looking at this game big picture, then nanook is one of the three people I am most suspicious of.

The remaining two slots are trickier. My gut wants to throw Falcon in there as a signal that we need to re-evaluate, but that's hasty. I suppose JPIC belongs. He feels like a comfortable #4.

The fact that I am now struggling to name a 5th in the pool of remaining players is worrying.

"Clears":
Hally
Alison
Esooa
Michelle
Ted

Pseudo-clears:
Oddmerta
KZA

Me:
Me

That leaves the following group of people:
Long Con
falcon
fingersplints
BoKnows
staypositivefriend

So... which person(s) from that list can be crammed into shrunken POE pool?

[BoKnows]

when did ted become clear?

[KZA]

when did ted become clear?

Michelle says she knows he is town via unknown mech

[Sloonei]

when did ted become clear?

Just before the deadline, when Michelle told us she had mech info that clears him.

[BoKnows]

ok

[BoKnows]

as long as people don't role claim we should be okay.

[KZA]

as long as people don't role claim we should be okay.

Huh? Explain this

[fingersplints]

@Sloonei I love the
“Me:
Me”

section

I definitely agree with the talk that Falcon needs revisiting. I remember thinking they were town early on, but I’m not sure that it’s a good enough reason with the recent flip and their latest activity. (Changing votes while not wanting to answer why)

[Sloonei]

as long as people don't role claim we should be okay.

Huh? Explain this

think that's a reference to the soup fear

[BoKnows]

as long as people don't role claim we should be okay.

Huh? Explain this

im scared of mastermind obliterated type role.

[KZA]

as long as people don't role claim we should be okay.

Huh? Explain this

think that's a reference to the soup fear

what if he's TMIing it

[Sloonei]

as long as people don't role claim we should be okay.

Huh? Explain this

think that's a reference to the soup fear

what if he's TMIing it

then bo is silly

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei I love the
“Me:
Me”

section

I definitely agree with the talk that Falcon needs revisiting. I remember thinking they were town early on, but I’m not sure that it’s a good enough reason with the recent flip and their latest activity. (Changing votes while not wanting to answer why)

His lack of an explanation upon request is not a great look either.

If you had to crunch the game down into a 5-player pool of suspects, who would they be?

[BoKnows]

lol. "fake drunk". that's the worse shade i've ever seen.

[KZA]

lol. "fake drunk". that's the worse shade i've ever seen.

I have faked drunk in Mafia before but I don't really buy that JPIC saw those posts and thought you were up to something wolfy

[BoKnows]

lol. "fake drunk". that's the worse shade i've ever seen.

I have faked drunk in Mafia before but I don't really buy that JPIC saw those posts and thought you were up to something wolfy

he's throwing shade at me all game. he's not even trying anymore, just throws shade.

[KZA]

lol. "fake drunk". that's the worse shade i've ever seen.

I have faked drunk in Mafia before but I don't really buy that JPIC saw those posts and thought you were up to something wolfy

he's throwing shade at me all game. he's not even trying anymore, just throws shade.

do you have a POE in mind

[Sloonei]

Anyone down for tring to build a 5-person POE as an exercise?

al_sama, nanook, and dom are unavoidably going to be in it, I think. Though some people seem to be treating nanook as self-resolving with his "I have a role" claim. But meh. If I am looking at this game big picture, then nanook is one of the three people I am most suspicious of.

The remaining two slots are trickier. My gut wants to throw Falcon in there as a signal that we need to re-evaluate, but that's hasty. I suppose JPIC belongs. He feels like a comfortable #4.

The fact that I am now struggling to name a 5th in the pool of remaining players is worrying.

"Clears":
Hally
Alison
Esooa
Michelle
Ted

Pseudo-clears:
Oddmerta
KZA

Me:
Me

That leaves the following group of people:
Long Con
falcon
fingersplints
BoKnows
staypositivefriend

So... which person(s) from that list can be crammed into shrunken POE pool?

[fingersplints]

@Sloonei I love the
“Me:
Me”

section

I definitely agree with the talk that Falcon needs revisiting. I remember thinking they were town early on, but I’m not sure that it’s a good enough reason with the recent flip and their latest activity. (Changing votes while not wanting to answer why)

His lack of an explanation upon request is not a great look either.

If you had to crunch the game down into a 5-player pool of suspects, who would they be?

If I were to crunch the player list to the “least townie” 5 I’d probably end up with Al, Dom, LC, jpic, and maybe Falcon.
But I’m having a hard time picking just 5. Being wrong about tsp is making me question a lot. I still don’t have a great read on spf. I’m less confident on town lean for Bo. I don’t know if we can trust the claims for Odd and KZA. And what if I’m just stupid and wrong in my town read of nanook.