Fallout 2: A Post-Nuclear Mafia Game [AMERICA RISES]

[MartinGG99]

Fairly sure I spent like most of D1-D3 thinking where I could get allies for my alignment.

[Urist]

Guys, Urist is caught in a lie right now, or am I crazy?

you're reading way too much into the fact that i'm voting for alison. yeeting her today actually is the optimal play but i don't think anyone is listening or cares anyway.

^

Yall are reading into it too much imo. Even more so, Alison recently admitted that she's reliant on the Enclave to not get killed as her enemies are likely confirmed town.

if alison gets into a position where she can win by helping enclave execute a townie, do you think she won't take it?
she is 100% a number for scum atm.

[Urist]

seriously last time i'm going to talk about it though, at least on d6

[MartinGG99]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

We can kill Chop Chop tomorrow.

Alison likely has a night-vig. So does Frank Horrigan, potentially. Which means they can do up to 3 kills tonight, and we can save one by deleting them.

[MartinGG99]

Unless we want a re-run of GoC

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

[MartinGG99]

Chop already claimed wolf.

Alsion already claimed slaver and just claimed to be helping Enclave.

So I'm just going to stick around in the thread and have a nice nap and hope the mafia don't get killed before they win for me. Best of luck!

[MartinGG99]

we don't lose a yeet by killing alison because she needs to scumside if she wants to win.

We do lose a yeet by killing Alison because Alison can survive and we can still win, and also Frank probably still has a shot left, so the "there are an odd number of players" argument doesn't hold water.

We don't lose a yeet because if we don't yeet her we will likely have yeet one of our own to get her to town-side.

[MartinGG99]

Like, its probably plain obvious to Enclave who the Slaver's enemies are

[MartinGG99]

GEE, IF ONLY THE ENCLAVE WOULD KILL MY CLEAR-AS-DAY ENEMIES SO I CAN TURN AGAINST THE ENCLAVE

[MartinGG99]

Don't forget that the enclave know who they are so figuring out alignments, especially with the claims and mech info we've given today, its probably obvious to them who most of the rest of the town are.


All they gotta do is tip-toe into balancing killing who they necessarily need to kill in order to live, but also not kill Alison's enemies to get her to scum-side.

[MartinGG99]

Like Alison can't 3P-side, she has to town-side or scum-side

and with the current state of the game Town will lose the auction as the Enclave are in a better position to manipulate it

[MartinGG99]

Heck ChopChop admitting wolf for no very good reason other than to tell Alison who to shoot

is probably symbollic of the Enclave wanting Chop Chop dead instead of Alison

[Epignosis]

[MartinGG99]

alison might also have a shot left

Yes, Alison might, but if both Frank and Alison shoot, we lose one yeet. If only one shoots, we lose one yeet. So the only case where yeeting Alison might make sense is if Alison has a shot, and Frank does not, which I'd guess isn't the case, and also again since we can win with Alison alive, it is optimal to yeet in Enclave here.

It's not a matter of whether

"we can win" with Alison.

Its a matter of "How likely will we win with Alison".

Right now the Enclave have likely asked themselves the same question, and given that they can manipulate night-kills, WIFOM all they want, and etc, they have a better chance of getting Alison to side with them.

[MartinGG99]

Let's be honest the whole GoC was a test of the argument

"We can win with them"

Only to lose to 3P after ~19,000 posts in that game.

[MartinGG99]

Heck we also used

"We can win with them"

In Shadow Corridors.

The 3P scum-sided and the scum won with their last member, who was @Marmot as the Thunder Cat sockpuppet account.

[MartinGG99]

@Seanzie

The history and the arguments I present here are compelling enough, whether its LYLO or MYLO in the end of the game doesn't really matter imo, and that assumes we get to Lylo and Mylo for sucking so bad as to failing to catch Enclave when we got some strong towns

Where said strong towns can be killed by Alison tonight

[MartinGG99]

Alison should die today. Then ChopChop.

[MartinGG99]

the question of can we manipulate alison into doing what we want is inherently dangerous

^^^^This^^^^^

Enclave have a better ability of doing this than the town does:

1) Some towns are de-facto end-of-story Alison's enemies.
2) The Enclave control the night-kills.

[Marmot]

Heck we also used

"We can win with them"

In Shadow Corridors.

The 3P scum-sided and the scum won with their last member, who was @Marmot as the Thunder Cat sockpuppet account.

These are not the same. We know exactly what Slaver's win con and abilities are here, and whether or not we need them dead.

Can we at least kill Chop Chop first so we can flip his role and talk about him afterward?

[MartinGG99]

I shot Mac N1 btw. If I hit town then yay, if I hit scum then I claim the shot and take full credit for gunning him down while pretending not to know what happened tp c4.

Too bad he self protected (presumably).

Okay, fine.

Maybe you did shoot.

Fact remains though that Enclave have better ability to manipulate you than town does.

[Alison]

If Enclave leaves my targets alive then I'm going to intentionally deny them the victory because doing so would risk ending the game with my targets alive, thus making me lose.

Enclave's only hope is to kill my targets for me and pray I am grateful enough to vote with them.

[MartinGG99]

Heck we also used

"We can win with them"

In Shadow Corridors.

The 3P scum-sided and the scum won with their last member, who was @Marmot as the Thunder Cat sockpuppet account.

These are not the same. We know exactly what Slaver's win con and abilities are here, and whether or not we need them dead.

Can we at least kill Chop Chop first so we can flip his role and talk about him afterward?

If chop-chop votes tomorrow he's going to be spewing or antispewing, if anyone is interested in that. I'm not.

Or none at all and just doesn't vote.

Alison, however, can vote and wouldn't really be (anti-)spewing anything.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Whatever. Both have to go and both are outted and I doubt either of them have anything that useful left. I guess the potential Alison kill (which I doubt she has) is the most dangerous thing either of them can do so sure.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

[MartinGG99]

If Enclave leaves my targets alive then I'm going to intentionally deny them the victory because doing so would risk ending the game with my targets alive, thus making me lose.

Enclave's only hope is to kill my targets for me and pray I am grateful enough to vote with them.

I'm not sure if I agree with that per my earlier arguments.

Chance are they can just ensure they kill all but close to 80% of your enemies, but not cross-over.

Besides, I don't like how everyone thinks Town has a better handle on this when they don't. Past games have shown that knowing who the 3P is, even if being uncertain and nothing garunteed about their role, shows the 3P lives and gets a favorable win.

[Marmot]

Heck we also used

"We can win with them"

In Shadow Corridors.

The 3P scum-sided and the scum won with their last member, who was @Marmot as the Thunder Cat sockpuppet account.

These are not the same. We know exactly what Slaver's win con and abilities are here, and whether or not we need them dead.

Can we at least kill Chop Chop first so we can flip his role and talk about him afterward?

If chop-chop votes tomorrow he's going to be spewing or antispewing, if anyone is interested in that. I'm not.

Or none at all and just doesn't vote.

Alison, however, can vote and wouldn't really be (anti-)spewing anything.

I can't tell if this is an argument for or against ChopChop going first.

[Seanzie]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

We can kill Chop Chop tomorrow.

Alison likely has a night-vig. So does Frank Horrigan, potentially. Which means they can do up to 3 kills tonight, and we can save one by deleting them.

If they both have a night vig, then Alison's doesn't hurt us much since we are currently at an odd number of players, and if we block one night vig but not the other, we end up with even numbers and have to guess at when we are in mylo (so it is actually better for them both to shoot rather than just one since we are guaranteed to get to lylo that way, which is better than mylo... of course this is assuming no more blocks or unexpected NAs, which is probably not a crazy bad assumption considering how late it is in the game and how many actions have already happened). The only case where it might make sense to yeet Alison is if Alison has a nightvig and Frank does not, and idk, by your own analysis that seems unlikely.

Aside from night vig, Alison wolfsiding tomorrow is strictly better for town than Chop Chop still being around (since Chop is clearly wolfsiding and Chop's vote can at least be used strategically by mafia, whereas Alison's is not so easy to use)

[Alison]

I need 1 person from each enemy faction dead at a minimum. Dom is Arroyo, VC is wiped out. So I need someone from Redding and someone from BOS killed. Epi (who is probably Chosen One/Arroyo) will likely die too in the process, meaning I have 6 dead. 6 is probably 80% of my targets dead.

If mafia doesn't kill Kyle/Redding player then they'll get auto'd by whoever claims Redding (almost certainly only one since no claims so far) and Kyle/Epi as the confirmed towncore.

Therefore Enclave is forced to kill my targets or they get mech locked out of the game by conftown. This is why I outed, I wouldn't otherwise.

[Seanzie]

I shot Mac N1 btw. If I hit town then yay, if I hit scum then I claim the shot and take full credit for gunning him down while pretending not to know what happened tp c4.

Too bad he self protected (presumably).

Okay, fine.

Maybe you did shoot.

Fact remains though that Enclave have better ability to manipulate you than town does.

But like... chop vs Alison... Chop doesn't even need to be manipluated, he just literally is a wolf and will do whatever the wolves want. Alison maybe does wolfside, but she would be essentially outed lone wolf, and outed lone wolf is always less of a threat than outed regular wolf.

[MartinGG99]

I can't tell if this is an argument for or against ChopChop going first.

Its more meant to persuade others than it is an argument that I personally care about.

[MartinGG99]

I shot Mac N1 btw. If I hit town then yay, if I hit scum then I claim the shot and take full credit for gunning him down while pretending not to know what happened tp c4.

Too bad he self protected (presumably).

Okay, fine.

Maybe you did shoot.

Fact remains though that Enclave have better ability to manipulate you than town does.

But like... chop vs Alison... Chop doesn't even need to be manipluated, he just literally is a wolf and will do whatever the wolves want. Alison maybe does wolfside, but she would be essentially outed lone wolf, and outed lone wolf is always less of a threat than outed regular wolf.

Yeah we're killing the people who are or are likely going to be manipulated by the Enclave.

The game ends when Enclave + Vault City dies, and that means Alison has to get enough of her enemies killed before Enclave is dead.

[MartinGG99]

How the hell does the game end?

1) Enclave destroyed by the end of Night 5 -- all blue, cyan, and soft green factions win. Slaver and Vault City may or may not win pending circumstances.

2) Enclave destroyed, Slaver is dead, and Vault City cannot achieve win condition.

3) Enclave destroyed and Vault City has achieved win condition.

4) Enclave and Vault City are both destroyed.

5) Enclave meets win condition.

6) Any other eventualities, if applicable, are assessed by the host case-by-case and a sensible endgame is determined. No endgame will be allowed featuring only "town" (blue, cyan, and soft green) factions -- if all others are eliminated, regardless of win condition, the game will end. If the game is active, at least one non-"town" player is alive (Slaver, Vault City, and/or Enclave).

[Seanzie]

I shot Mac N1 btw. If I hit town then yay, if I hit scum then I claim the shot and take full credit for gunning him down while pretending not to know what happened tp c4.

Too bad he self protected (presumably).

Okay, fine.

Maybe you did shoot.

Fact remains though that Enclave have better ability to manipulate you than town does.

But like... chop vs Alison... Chop doesn't even need to be manipluated, he just literally is a wolf and will do whatever the wolves want. Alison maybe does wolfside, but she would be essentially outed lone wolf, and outed lone wolf is always less of a threat than outed regular wolf.

Yeah we're killing the people who are or are likely going to be manipulated by the Enclave.

The game ends when Enclave + Vault City dies, and that means Alison has to get enough of her enemies killed before Enclave is dead.

But like... Chop has to do that... EVEN MORE... and Chop has access to wolfchat which makes him wayyy more dangerous to town than (novigleft) Alison could be. It is a strict inequality comparison unless Alison has a shot left (and then it is unclear if it is better or not as I explained, due to numbers, it is better to have 2 or 0 shots remaining, not just 1).

[Epignosis]

[Marmot]

I guess I keep coming back to the main point. All town members need Enclave dead. Most town members don't need Alison dead.

Alison needs maybe 1-2 more town dead at this point. Enclave needs to reach parity.

[MartinGG99]

I shot Mac N1 btw. If I hit town then yay, if I hit scum then I claim the shot and take full credit for gunning him down while pretending not to know what happened tp c4.

Too bad he self protected (presumably).

Okay, fine.

Maybe you did shoot.

Fact remains though that Enclave have better ability to manipulate you than town does.

But like... chop vs Alison... Chop doesn't even need to be manipluated, he just literally is a wolf and will do whatever the wolves want. Alison maybe does wolfside, but she would be essentially outed lone wolf, and outed lone wolf is always less of a threat than outed regular wolf.

Yeah we're killing the people who are or are likely going to be manipulated by the Enclave.

The game ends when Enclave + Vault City dies, and that means Alison has to get enough of her enemies killed before Enclave is dead.

But like... Chop has to do that... EVEN MORE... and Chop has access to wolfchat which makes him wayyy more dangerous to town than (novigleft) Alison could be. It is a strict inequality comparison unless Alison has a shot left (and then it is unclear if it is better or not as I explained, due to numbers, it is better to have 2 or 0 shots remaining, not just 1).

Alison basically has to do the same, given a number of the town (including you) are her enemies, and has an unlikelyhood of having a gun.

Town doesn't win in trying to manipulate her imo.

Dom - Arroyo
Esooa - Vault
Mac - Vault
--Dead--

Epi - Arroyo
Seanzie - Redding
Kylemii - BoS

In order to reach 80% or more dead, 2 of the bottom have to die assuming there's no more Arroyo or Redding. And if there is, trying to get Alison to town-side will be tought.

[MartinGG99]

All Enclave has to do is kill maybe 1 and just leave the others to like F5 and Alisno will invaribly scum-side imo.

[MartinGG99]

F8 I mean.

[Seanzie]

This is like the only reason why it might make sense to kill (novigleft) Alison over Chop here, but I really don't think it is worth losing a day to do it. We need to be hunting more enclave tomorrow, not waiting for chop to get chopped. At the end of the day Alison is an optional kill, and with unlimited VAT points (days) left, I'd say go for it, but we have only so many days left, and so there is no reason to waste one chopping outed 3P that is probably toothless at this point.

[MartinGG99]

Alison basically has to do the same, given a number of the town (including you) are her enemies, and has an unlikelyhood of having a gun.

Town doesn't win in trying to manipulate her imo.

Dom - Arroyo
Esooa - Vault
Mac - Vault
--Dead--

Epi - Arroyo
Seanzie - Redding
Kylemii - BoS

In order to reach 80% or more dead, 2 of the bottom have to die assuming there's no more Arroyo or Redding. And if there is, trying to get Alison to town-side will be tought.

Actually

The Slaver wins the game if they survive with at least 80% of the combined members (and at least one each) of the Arroyo, Redding, Vault City, and Brotherhood of Steel factions eliminated

They could even kill Epi + Kylemii and Alison would still have to scum-side to get rid of Seanzie.

[MartinGG99]

We could in effect just lose 3 towns over trying to fight over who controls Alison's wincon

and IMO the chances of us losing that fight are much more likely than winning it

[Grogu]

Honestly, probably just Tony lol

Why didn’t you guys just kill Tony? He was annoying as fuck and dead set on you. Too obvious?

So you think that TONY... was doing an super-annoying death tunnel.. on ChopChop?

I was pushing chop but Tony was only talking about chop and chop was pushing tony. I found that whole thing to be annoying actually, and I knew chop was likely scum and tony was probably another scum team with actual info on chop.
That was my first read. I think chop was more annoying to be honest. Tony was cool.
Now we know there’s one team left so tony is lock clear.

[Grogu]

Marmot you are the real MVP. I hope we are in the same winning town faction. I would be so happy to win with you.
We are going to solve this game, well you will and I’ll just follow your lead.

I wouldn't go as far as calling myself MVP, but I would love to win with you too.

Let’s fucking go. Which team do you need to die to win?

[Grogu]

Guys, Urist is caught in a lie right now, or am I crazy?

you're reading way too much into the fact that i'm voting for alison. yeeting her today actually is the optimal play but i don't think anyone is listening or cares anyway.

^

Yall are reading into it too much imo. Even more so, Alison recently admitted that she's reliant on the Enclave to not get killed as her enemies are likely confirmed town.

Why is Alison and enclave working together? What if Alison is actually a wolf on chop team and they just fucking around? That’s very good plan by her. Claim 3P day 1 and survive this long.

[MartinGG99]

I guess I keep coming back to the main point. All town members need Enclave dead. Most town members don't need Alison dead.

Alison needs maybe 1-2 more town dead at this point. Enclave needs to reach parity.

You're a hubologist right?

So would you rather kill Alison or Epignosis?

[MartinGG99]

wati

[MartinGG99]

im an idiot I misread

[MartinGG99]

But yeah hubologists wanting Alison to slightly scum-side makes sense since they need Epi or LC dead. Unless there's more wastelanders.

[Grogu]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

We can kill Chop Chop tomorrow.

Alison likely has a night-vig. So does Frank Horrigan, potentially. Which means they can do up to 3 kills tonight, and we can save one by deleting them.

Frank should just shoot chop tonight and we vote Alison instead.
This only if don’t believe Alison shot. If she shot then she’s not a threat and frank can shoot a wolfy person like Daisy or poison or one of those people hiding.